- Title
- The stock market and the business cycle in South Africa
- Creator
- Pokoo, Patience
- ThesisAdvisor
- Nel, H.
- ThesisAdvisor
- Khumalo, S.A.
- Subject
- Uncatalogued
- Date
- 2024-10-11
- Type
- Academic theses
- Type
- Master's theses
- Type
- text
- Identifier
- http://hdl.handle.net/10962/462801
- Identifier
- vital:76336
- Description
- The relationship between the stock market and economic activity has long been a topic for research. Several studies done in both advanced and emerging economies including South Africa before COVID-19 found stock market prices predict the cycle of real economic activity and some found it to be the reversal. Therefore, this Study seeks to examine this topic and will extend beyond the post-covid period exploring the relationship between the stock market (proxied by the JSE All-Share Index) and the business cycle (represented by the Coincident Business Cycle Indicator of the SARB) in South Africa. The study also investigates if the relationship between the stock market and the business cycle is homogenous across the three selected sectors of the JSE using a combination of the “financial accelerator theory”, the “wealth effect theory”, the “traditional valuation model of stock prices”, the “stock prices as aggregators of expectations”, and the “cost of raising equity capital”. The Econometrics models employed include time-series and panel cointegration techniques, relying on the ARDL estimation model and a Granger-Causality Test. The findings of this study indicate that a long-run relationship exists between the stock market and the business cycle in South Africa. The findings support the notion that the stock market predicts economic activity, and this relationship is assumed to be homogenous across the selected Sectors of the JSE (namely, Resources, Financials, and Industrials). Again, the Granger-Causality Test confirms the relationship between the stock market and the business cycle in South Africa to be unidirectional. It is recommended that since the stock market affects South African economic activity positively in the long run which is consistent with findings of similar studies done on the JSE, the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) must strengthen existing policy to ensure financial system stability and sustainable economic growth in South Africa. Again, the stock market being a leading indicator of the business cycle is something different. As a recommendation, we need to look at ways to use the prediction ability in a business setting. Investors and Portfolio Managers can follow trends of the stock market to forecast the direction of the future economy to make educated decisions to hedge their investments and diversify their portfolios against huge losses in crises such as the Financial Crises and the Global Health Crisis (COVID-19), however, with the caveat that the stock market does not always accurately predict the business cycle.
- Description
- Thesis (MCom) -- Faculty of Commerce, Economics and Economic History, 2024
- Format
- computer, online resource, application/pdf, 1 online resource (126 pages), pdf
- Publisher
- Rhodes University, Faculty of Commerce, Economics and Economic History
- Language
- English
- Rights
- Pokoo, Patience
- Rights
- Use of this resource is governed by the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons "Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike" License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.0/)
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RU Department of Economics and Economic History
| Thumbnail | File | Description | Size | Format | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| View Details Download | SOURCE1 | POKOO-MCOM-TR24-115.pdf | 1 MB | Adobe Acrobat PDF | View Details Download |