Assessing the potential impact of climate change in the south-eastern Great Escarpment, Southern Africa
- Authors: Bentley, Luke Kinross
- Date: 2017
- Subjects: Mountain plants -- Climatic factors -- Drakensberg Mountains , Mountain biodiversity -- Drakensberg Mountains , Climatic changes -- Drakensberg Mountains , Rain and rainfall -- Drakensberg Mountains , Plant diversity -- Climatic factors -- Drakensberg Mountains
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MSc
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/4657 , vital:20709
- Description: Rapid, anthropogenic climate change is a contemporary phenomenon which is threatening natural ecosystems. Mountains are globally important, housing high levels of plant and animal biodiversity, as well as being important suppliers of water with 50% of mountainous regions being essential for the provision of water to downstream inhabitants. Owing to their importance, an assessment of the historical, current and potential impacts of climate change on the south-eastern Great Escarpment encompassing South Africa and Lesotho is necessary and is the primary aim of this thesis. In order to assess the historical and current impacts of climate change, historical rainfall records were collected from 78 sites throughout the Eastern Cape. These records were used to determine rainfall trends and trends in the frequency of daily extreme events. Climate change projections predict increasing trends in summer and annual rainfall, and a marginal increase to a slightly decreasing trend in winter rainfall, depending on if statistically downscaled or dynamically downscaled projections are examined. Extreme events are also predicted to increase in frequency. Results showed trends which generally agree with the predictions, except for extreme events for which there was insufficient data to support the projections. This has implications for farmers in the area and validates the downscaled Regional Climate Models (RCMs) to be used for the predictive analysis determining the potential future impacts of climate change on plant species' distributions in the south-eastern Great Escarpment. In order to assess montane plant species to future climate predictions, occurrence records of 46 species were correlated to rainfall and temperature predictor variables and predictions for species richness and beta diversity were made for current and future climates. This predictive analysis used and compared two correlative species distribution modelling methods - one method used one correlating algorithm in a nuanced manner and the other method used five correlating algorithms in an ensemble. A trend of range restriction to higher elevations for the 46 species analysed was as expected from a warming climate. The nuanced, single algorithm modelling method produced less conservative models. The predicted trend of an elevational increase in montane vegetation in this region points to Lesotho and the Drakensberg highlands as being an important refugium for montane plant taxa of the southeastern Great Escarpment. The Maloti Drakensberg Transfrontier Conservation Area hence needs to be expanded and its mandate properly enforced to protect this region adequately.
- Full Text:
- Authors: Bentley, Luke Kinross
- Date: 2017
- Subjects: Mountain plants -- Climatic factors -- Drakensberg Mountains , Mountain biodiversity -- Drakensberg Mountains , Climatic changes -- Drakensberg Mountains , Rain and rainfall -- Drakensberg Mountains , Plant diversity -- Climatic factors -- Drakensberg Mountains
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MSc
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/4657 , vital:20709
- Description: Rapid, anthropogenic climate change is a contemporary phenomenon which is threatening natural ecosystems. Mountains are globally important, housing high levels of plant and animal biodiversity, as well as being important suppliers of water with 50% of mountainous regions being essential for the provision of water to downstream inhabitants. Owing to their importance, an assessment of the historical, current and potential impacts of climate change on the south-eastern Great Escarpment encompassing South Africa and Lesotho is necessary and is the primary aim of this thesis. In order to assess the historical and current impacts of climate change, historical rainfall records were collected from 78 sites throughout the Eastern Cape. These records were used to determine rainfall trends and trends in the frequency of daily extreme events. Climate change projections predict increasing trends in summer and annual rainfall, and a marginal increase to a slightly decreasing trend in winter rainfall, depending on if statistically downscaled or dynamically downscaled projections are examined. Extreme events are also predicted to increase in frequency. Results showed trends which generally agree with the predictions, except for extreme events for which there was insufficient data to support the projections. This has implications for farmers in the area and validates the downscaled Regional Climate Models (RCMs) to be used for the predictive analysis determining the potential future impacts of climate change on plant species' distributions in the south-eastern Great Escarpment. In order to assess montane plant species to future climate predictions, occurrence records of 46 species were correlated to rainfall and temperature predictor variables and predictions for species richness and beta diversity were made for current and future climates. This predictive analysis used and compared two correlative species distribution modelling methods - one method used one correlating algorithm in a nuanced manner and the other method used five correlating algorithms in an ensemble. A trend of range restriction to higher elevations for the 46 species analysed was as expected from a warming climate. The nuanced, single algorithm modelling method produced less conservative models. The predicted trend of an elevational increase in montane vegetation in this region points to Lesotho and the Drakensberg highlands as being an important refugium for montane plant taxa of the southeastern Great Escarpment. The Maloti Drakensberg Transfrontier Conservation Area hence needs to be expanded and its mandate properly enforced to protect this region adequately.
- Full Text:
Systematics and biogeography of forest snails, chondrocyclus (mollusca: gastropoda: caenogastropoda: cyclophoridae) in Southern Africa
- Authors: Cole, Mary Louise
- Date: 2017
- Subjects: Chondrocyclus , Mollusks -- South Africa , Cyclophoridae -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Doctoral , PhD
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/4356 , vital:20651
- Description: This study presents a molecular phylogeny and systematic revision of Chondrocyclus, the major South African group of the large family of operculate terrestrial molluscs, the Cyclophoridae. Chondrocyclus snails are small gastropods found in forest and moist thicket throughout South Africa. This is the first detailed systematic treatment of a group of Cyclophoridae in mainland Africa and the first to provide molecular data. This study complements regional studies on the systematics of the family in Asia and provides comparative data for studies of higher level relationships within the Cyclophoridae. Phylogenetic reconstruction by BI and ML methods of combined and single gene datasets of 16S and CO 1 all showed Chondrocyclus to be monophyletic and recovered five well-supported clades that corresponded to groups of populations identifiable on the basis of combinations of morphological characters. Species were diagnosed morphologically and were shown to be genetically distinct lineages. Informative morphological features include shell dimensions, protoconch, periostracum, operculum, radula and penis. Two species in Afromontane regions of Zimbabwe and Malawi respectively are excluded from Chondrocyclus based on morphology and tentatively placed in Cyathopoma. Diversity recognised within the genus more than doubled, from a previous seven South African species to seventeen. Re-descriptions of established species and descriptions of new species are provided, together with photographs of morphological characteristics. New taxon names and nomenclatural acts within it are disclaimed and are therefore not available in the sense of the International Code of Zoological Nomenclature until validly published elsewhere. Several cryptic species within previously widespread “species” and unrecorded narrowly endemic species were documented. The clade consisting of populations of “Chondrocyclus isipingoensis”, now considered to be a species complex, was sister to a group containing the other four clades. The “Isipingoensis” clade occurs widely in Afromontane regions, along the Great Escarpment, and on the south-east coast. The other four clades occur from Zululand to the Cape Peninsula with a pattern of east-west lineage turnover. The biogeography of Chondrocyclus is interpreted by comparison with concordant patterns in other terrestrial molluscs and unrelated taxa with poor dispersal ability. This study complements other research on composition, spatial distribution and phylogenetic diversity of low-vagility invertebrates and expands the data available for biodiversity conservation in South Africa.
- Full Text:
- Authors: Cole, Mary Louise
- Date: 2017
- Subjects: Chondrocyclus , Mollusks -- South Africa , Cyclophoridae -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Doctoral , PhD
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/4356 , vital:20651
- Description: This study presents a molecular phylogeny and systematic revision of Chondrocyclus, the major South African group of the large family of operculate terrestrial molluscs, the Cyclophoridae. Chondrocyclus snails are small gastropods found in forest and moist thicket throughout South Africa. This is the first detailed systematic treatment of a group of Cyclophoridae in mainland Africa and the first to provide molecular data. This study complements regional studies on the systematics of the family in Asia and provides comparative data for studies of higher level relationships within the Cyclophoridae. Phylogenetic reconstruction by BI and ML methods of combined and single gene datasets of 16S and CO 1 all showed Chondrocyclus to be monophyletic and recovered five well-supported clades that corresponded to groups of populations identifiable on the basis of combinations of morphological characters. Species were diagnosed morphologically and were shown to be genetically distinct lineages. Informative morphological features include shell dimensions, protoconch, periostracum, operculum, radula and penis. Two species in Afromontane regions of Zimbabwe and Malawi respectively are excluded from Chondrocyclus based on morphology and tentatively placed in Cyathopoma. Diversity recognised within the genus more than doubled, from a previous seven South African species to seventeen. Re-descriptions of established species and descriptions of new species are provided, together with photographs of morphological characteristics. New taxon names and nomenclatural acts within it are disclaimed and are therefore not available in the sense of the International Code of Zoological Nomenclature until validly published elsewhere. Several cryptic species within previously widespread “species” and unrecorded narrowly endemic species were documented. The clade consisting of populations of “Chondrocyclus isipingoensis”, now considered to be a species complex, was sister to a group containing the other four clades. The “Isipingoensis” clade occurs widely in Afromontane regions, along the Great Escarpment, and on the south-east coast. The other four clades occur from Zululand to the Cape Peninsula with a pattern of east-west lineage turnover. The biogeography of Chondrocyclus is interpreted by comparison with concordant patterns in other terrestrial molluscs and unrelated taxa with poor dispersal ability. This study complements other research on composition, spatial distribution and phylogenetic diversity of low-vagility invertebrates and expands the data available for biodiversity conservation in South Africa.
- Full Text:
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