Investment-grade or “junk” status: do sovereign credit ratings really matter?
- Authors: Slabbert, Adriaan
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: Credit ratings , Rating agencies (Finance) , Developing countries -- Economic conditions , Developing countries -- Foreign economic relations
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/97067 , vital:31393
- Description: Credit ratings play a well-established part in modern financial markets, reducing asymmetric information between investors and borrowers. In particular, sovereign credit ratings allow the world’s lesser-known economies to access a wider pool of international capital, while simultaneously allowing international investors to access a more diverse set of investment opportunities. The importance of sovereign credit ratings in terms of the cost of government debt in developing nations was observed. The relationship between sovereign credit ratings and average bond spreads over the time period spanning 2006 – 2017 was examined in 25 emerging economies. Regression analysis in the form of fixed-effects and random-effects models was used to determine the impact of changes in sovereign credit ratings on the cost of sovereign debt, controlling for certain macroeconomic factors. It was concluded that sovereign credit ratings are relevant in helping to determine the cost of sovereign debt for developing economies, but that they are not the only factor considered by global markets. The thesis therefore recommended further research into the factors affecting the cost of sovereign debt as well as further refinements to the methodologies that ratings agencies use to assign ratings.
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- Date Issued: 2019
Agricultural-based commodity chains and development: the case of the tobacco sector in Zimbabwe
- Authors: Thring, Stephen Richard
- Date: 2017
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MSocSc
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/5337 , vital:20814
- Description: This thesis examines the nature of governance in the Zimbabwean tobacco value chain and what upgrading implications this has for participants at the lower end of the value chain, with a particular focus on smallholder tobacco growers. The nature of governance and upgrading opportunities will provide further implications for broader economic development in Zimbabwe. Value chain analysis was the over-arching method, adopting a mixed methods approach of both quantitative and qualitative data analysis. Data attained from the Tobacco and Industry Marketing Board (TIMB) was used to construct a Zimbabwean tobacco profile. This information was used to construct a simple Global Value Chain (GVC) framework in order to obtain an understanding of the Zimbabwean tobacco value chain. Information was gathered at the top end of the value chain via documents and data from British American Tobacco (BAT) and information was gathered at the middle and lower end of the value chain through interviews. It was found that the Zimbabwean tobacco value chain is characterised by two types of governance: modular and hierarchy. Modular governance existed where the value chain was disjointed by the leaf merchant and hierarchy governance existed where cigarette manufacturers have vertically integrated themselves backwards into the tobacco growing segment. It was found that contract lines offer smallholder tobacco growers’ financial and technical support that would otherwise be difficult to attain. This increased the likelihood for smallholder tobacco growers to produce a high quality crop that met Good Agricultural Practices (GAP) and other compliancy requirements; therefore achieving product and process upgrading. However, the environmental impact of tobacco growing through deforestation and the possibility of lead cigarette manufacturers relocating their operations to a different geographical location (as is the nature of GVCs) threatens the sustainability of Zimbabwe’s tobacco industry. Despite these issues it was argued that the tobacco value chain could assist Zimbabwe’s economy in diversifying away from simple tobacco production towards valueadding tobacco sectors, such as processing, by-product processing and cigarette manufacturing.
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- Date Issued: 2017
An analysis of the impact of financialization on commodity markets
- Authors: Ndawona, Takudzwa Maitaishe
- Date: 2017
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/7113 , vital:21218
- Description: An unprecedented increase in real commodity prices from 2002-2011 fuelled an intense debate as to the causes of the steep rise in prices and its possible implications for producers and consumers. On the one hand, the prolonged and dramatic rise in almost all commodity prices is attributed to growing demand from emerging market economies, supply shocks such as adverse weather conditions, export bans as well as other macroeconomic factors. Collectively these are known as the fundamental (demand and supply) factors. On the other hand, there is a growing body of evidence that suggests these fundamental factors alone are not sufficient enough to explain recent commodity price developments. It is noted that alongside changes in the fundamental factors, there was a major shift in trading activities on commodity derivative markets related to the increasing presence of financial investors, institutional investors and hedge funds. This had important effects, it is argued, on the microstructure of these markets and on price dynamics in a process termed “fmancialization”. Most of the empirical literature covers the period of rising commodity prices from 20022011. This study seeks to add to the existing literature by examining, in addition, the impact of financialization when commodity prices were falling from 2011-2015. Whereas the literature focuses mainly on the rise of agricultural commodity prices, the focus of this study is on metals, oil and bulk commodities (coal and iron ore). Two techniques are employed, namely the calculation of rolling correlations for futures and spot returns. Granger causality tests are then performed to examine the relationships between futures and spot prices. Rolling return correlations are calculated for i) different exchange- traded commodities and ii) exchange-traded commodities and bulk commodities not traded on exchanges. This is done to establish whether the increased correlations between different commodities found in the literature still hold now that commodity prices across all categories are falling. Granger causality tests are used in order to establish the link between the futures prices and spot prices both during the upswing period (2002-2011) and downswing period (2011-2015). It is found that rapidly growing indexed-based investment in commodity markets (financialization) during the upswing period is concurrent with increasingly correlated returns on the prices of unrelated commodities in both the futures and spot markets. These correlations decline during the period of falling commodity prices (2011-2015). This was a period in which the total amount of commodity assets under management fell sharply. This supports the a priori expectation that if the increased correlations of previously seemingly correlated and unrelated commodities during the upswing had been driven by financialization, the correlation would decline in the downturn. Granger causality results reveal statistically significant evidence of futures prices (returns) driving spot prices (returns) during the financialization period. However, post-financialization there is a shift to more bidirectional relationships. The study therefore concludes that, in addition to changing fundamental and macroeconomic factors, the financialization of commodity markets further drove the excessive and volatile price levels in commodity markets from 2002 to 2011.
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- Date Issued: 2017
Impact of the global financial crisis on economic growth: implications for South Africa and other developing economies
- Authors: Savy, Neil Edward
- Date: 2015
- Subjects: Global Financial Crisis, 2008-2009 , Gross domestic product -- Developing countries , Gross domestic product -- South Africa , Economic forecasting -- South Africa , Economic forecasting -- Developing countries , Economic development -- South Africa , Economic development -- Developing countries
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1117 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1017542
- Description: This paper examines the impact of the recent global financial crisis on economic growth in developing economies and South Africa in particular. It explores whether the events experienced by developing countries conform to what would be anticipated from economic theory. This is done by firstly comparing country growth forecasts for 2012 captured in 2008 at the beginning of the crisis to actual 2012 GDP growth data. Secondly, panel data analysis is used to investigate three important transmission channels, namely those of Trade, Capital Flows and Exchange Rates for 25 developing economies. The results suggest that economic forecasters in 2008 on average overestimated GDP growth for 2012 by -21.6 percent (excluding Venezuela). The only important transmission channel identified using Trend analysis to explain this negative impact on growth was capital flows. However when using Panel regression analysis all three channels were found to explain the economic impact of the crisis on GDP growth for developing countries, conforming to economic theory. It was discovered that, contrary to what was initially expected, portfolio inflows actually increased for most developing countries during the crisis. This possibly can be explained by the impact of quantitative easing in the USA. South Africa was found to have been negatively impacted by the global financial crisis, but to a lesser extent when compared to most other developing countries. The findings are important for global investors looking for new investment opportunities. The extent to which individual economies are “decoupled” from developed economies’ performance provides possible opportunities for diversifying risk through a geographic spread of investor portfolios.
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- Date Issued: 2015
Why has South Africa been relatively unsuccessful at attracting inward foreign direct investment since 1994?
- Authors: Fulton, Mark Hugh John
- Date: 2014
- Subjects: Investments, Foreign -- South Africa , Investments, Foreign -- Africa, Southern , Investments, Foreign -- Chile , Investments, Foreign -- Botswana , Economic development -- South Africa , Economic development -- Developing countries , Political corruption -- Economic aspects -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic policy -- 1994-
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1097 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1013056
- Description: Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) flows into South Africa have been very low for several decades, and this research examines the reason(s) why this has been the case since 1994. There is a common belief amongst economists that there is a positive relationship between the amount of FDI received and economic growth, thus the desire to attract greater FDI inflows. A literature review was conducted to establish the determinants of FDI globally and then data were collected and assessed to test which causes are most important. The performance of developing nations in attracting FDI was first compared with that of the developed nations. Thereafter, a regional breakdown of FDI flows was presented, with a particular focus on the Southern African region. FDI inflows to South Africa since 1994 were compared against the identified determinants of FDI, as well as with FDI inflows into two other major mining economies, Chile and Botswana. The friendliness of the government towards business was identified as a significant determinant of FDI inflows and the importance of this factor in explaining FDI inflows into environment in South Africa was looked at in more depth. It was found that many investors perceive the South African government as hostile towards business and as corrupt and/or inefficient. The empirical results show that this negative perception helps explain the FDI inflows attracted by South Africa since 1994. Therefore, increased friendliness to business by the government should increase future inward FDI flows into South Africa.
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- Date Issued: 2014