Sectoral co-integration and portfolio diversification benefits: a business cycle examination of South African equity sectors
- Authors: Hofisi, Tinashe S
- Date: 2020
- Subjects: Portfolio management -- South Africa , Investments -- South Africa , Investments, South African , Stocks -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/146379 , vital:38521
- Description: The onset of globalisation and simultaneous changes in financial technology and financial reforms dissipated hurdles once faced in financial transactions among stock markets. Hence, stock markets around the world became increasingly integrated because there was a free flow of cross border investments. Consequently, international diversification diminished thereby undermining the ability of investors to diversify investments across borders. For that reason, recent literature on portfolio diversification is urging investors to shift their focus to domestic portfolio diversification as an alternative. On that account, this study aims to examine the co-integration and dynamic causalities between South African equity market sectors in order to ascertain the sectoral diversification opportunities available to domestic investors over time. The study was examined over the different phases of the business cycle as well as the full sample, i.e. 2004 – 2018, with a view to shedding light on the inter-sectoral diversification opportunities of domestic investors over the South African business cycle. The phases of the business cycle applied are a| expansion and boom; b| recession and recovery phase and c| stagnation phase. The Johansen co-integration and Granger-causality tests were employed. The hypothesis of the study is that, if sectors are not cointegrated, then diversification benefits can be reaped by constructing a portfolio that combines stocks from the respective sectors. On the whole, the findings of this study show that there are both long-run and short-run diversification opportunities across the different phases of the South African business cycle as well as the full sample. However, there are lesser diversification opportunities in the recession and recovery phase over both the long-run and short-run. These results indicate that domestic sectoral portfolio diversification is least effective when it is needed the most (i.e. in a period of heightened volatility such as recession and recovery phase). This study will contribute to the existing literature in two ways; firstly, to investors who intend to diversify their portfolios domestically rather than internationally and, secondly, after reasonably thorough research it was evident that there is scant literature on domestic sectoral diversification in South Africa. As a result, the study attempts to address this gap. Additionally, the essence of the business cycle in this study is to make investors aware of potential diversification opportunities when positioning their portfolios for the next shift in the business cycle.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2020
- Authors: Hofisi, Tinashe S
- Date: 2020
- Subjects: Portfolio management -- South Africa , Investments -- South Africa , Investments, South African , Stocks -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/146379 , vital:38521
- Description: The onset of globalisation and simultaneous changes in financial technology and financial reforms dissipated hurdles once faced in financial transactions among stock markets. Hence, stock markets around the world became increasingly integrated because there was a free flow of cross border investments. Consequently, international diversification diminished thereby undermining the ability of investors to diversify investments across borders. For that reason, recent literature on portfolio diversification is urging investors to shift their focus to domestic portfolio diversification as an alternative. On that account, this study aims to examine the co-integration and dynamic causalities between South African equity market sectors in order to ascertain the sectoral diversification opportunities available to domestic investors over time. The study was examined over the different phases of the business cycle as well as the full sample, i.e. 2004 – 2018, with a view to shedding light on the inter-sectoral diversification opportunities of domestic investors over the South African business cycle. The phases of the business cycle applied are a| expansion and boom; b| recession and recovery phase and c| stagnation phase. The Johansen co-integration and Granger-causality tests were employed. The hypothesis of the study is that, if sectors are not cointegrated, then diversification benefits can be reaped by constructing a portfolio that combines stocks from the respective sectors. On the whole, the findings of this study show that there are both long-run and short-run diversification opportunities across the different phases of the South African business cycle as well as the full sample. However, there are lesser diversification opportunities in the recession and recovery phase over both the long-run and short-run. These results indicate that domestic sectoral portfolio diversification is least effective when it is needed the most (i.e. in a period of heightened volatility such as recession and recovery phase). This study will contribute to the existing literature in two ways; firstly, to investors who intend to diversify their portfolios domestically rather than internationally and, secondly, after reasonably thorough research it was evident that there is scant literature on domestic sectoral diversification in South Africa. As a result, the study attempts to address this gap. Additionally, the essence of the business cycle in this study is to make investors aware of potential diversification opportunities when positioning their portfolios for the next shift in the business cycle.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2020
Inflation hedging with South African common stocks: a JSE sectoral analysis
- Authors: Kawawa, Dennis
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: Johannesburg Stock Exchange , Inflation (Finance) -- South Africa , Hedging (Finance)-- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/71526 , vital:29861
- Description: Inflation risk erodes purchasing power, redistributes wealth from lenders to borrowers and threatens investor’s long-term objectives, which are often specified in real terms; financial market volatility presents an additional risk for investors and portfolio managers concerned with not only real returns but also absolute returns. Understanding key investment risks, of which inflation is one, is crucial for investment managers in order to design effective hedging strategies to preserve wealth over the long run. Empirical tests of the Fisher hypothesis in South Africa have shown that common stocks are a good hedge against inflation. However, empirical evidence from developed countries has also shown that the relationship between common stocks and inflation is heterogeneous across the sectors and industries. This paper analysed the sectoral differences in the hedging ability of South African common stocks to test for this heterogeneity. The paper presents disaggregated sector models to test heterogeneity across the eight sectors of the JSE securities exchange. Understanding which of these sectors offers the best hedge against inflation is important to investors, allowing them to place money where the value will be best preserved during times of higher inflation. The disaggregated sectors tested included the Basic Materials price index, Industrials price index, Consumer Goods price index, Health Care price index, Consumer Services price index, Telecommunications price index, Financials price index, and Technology price index. Johansen Cointegration techniques were employed to empirically test the Fisher hypothesis for the South African market. For the Fisher hypothesis to hold, this paper was required to find evidence of cointegration between the share indices and CPI, as well as a positive slope coefficient for the cointegrating regression. The results of the cointegration test showed that the All Share index and each of disaggregated sector indices were cointegrated with CPI. This implied that a long run relationship exists between common stocks and inflation. Two techniques were used to estimate the cointegrating regressions for each model, a standard long-run cointegrating regression normalizing on the share index and a Vector error correction model (VECM). For all the models both techniques reveal a positive relationship between common stock and CPI with the coefficients for the long run cointegrating regression derived from the various models ranging between 1.41 – 3.62 while the coefficients from the VECM ranged from 1.42 - 4.85. The varying coefficients provide evidence of the heterogeneity of the hedging ability of common stocks. Overall the evidence from the long run cointegration regression suggests that in times of high inflation investors are most compensated for changes in inflation in common stocks relating to the Consumer Services and Health Care sectors, but that in general all sectors of the JSE provide some hedge for inflation. The results suggest that investors are compensated for changes in inflation if they invest in specific industries rather than in the All Share index, thus diversifying portfolios could provide a better hedge for inflation. Although positive coefficients were found the weak exogeneity test revealed only technology Index was caused by changes in CPI. The Paper concluded that in the long run all sectors provided protection against inflation during the period of study, but the evidence only fully supports the Fisher hypothesis for the Technology index, due to the results of the weak exogeneity test that revealed that CPI is weakly exogenous only in the equation of the Technology index.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2019
- Authors: Kawawa, Dennis
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: Johannesburg Stock Exchange , Inflation (Finance) -- South Africa , Hedging (Finance)-- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/71526 , vital:29861
- Description: Inflation risk erodes purchasing power, redistributes wealth from lenders to borrowers and threatens investor’s long-term objectives, which are often specified in real terms; financial market volatility presents an additional risk for investors and portfolio managers concerned with not only real returns but also absolute returns. Understanding key investment risks, of which inflation is one, is crucial for investment managers in order to design effective hedging strategies to preserve wealth over the long run. Empirical tests of the Fisher hypothesis in South Africa have shown that common stocks are a good hedge against inflation. However, empirical evidence from developed countries has also shown that the relationship between common stocks and inflation is heterogeneous across the sectors and industries. This paper analysed the sectoral differences in the hedging ability of South African common stocks to test for this heterogeneity. The paper presents disaggregated sector models to test heterogeneity across the eight sectors of the JSE securities exchange. Understanding which of these sectors offers the best hedge against inflation is important to investors, allowing them to place money where the value will be best preserved during times of higher inflation. The disaggregated sectors tested included the Basic Materials price index, Industrials price index, Consumer Goods price index, Health Care price index, Consumer Services price index, Telecommunications price index, Financials price index, and Technology price index. Johansen Cointegration techniques were employed to empirically test the Fisher hypothesis for the South African market. For the Fisher hypothesis to hold, this paper was required to find evidence of cointegration between the share indices and CPI, as well as a positive slope coefficient for the cointegrating regression. The results of the cointegration test showed that the All Share index and each of disaggregated sector indices were cointegrated with CPI. This implied that a long run relationship exists between common stocks and inflation. Two techniques were used to estimate the cointegrating regressions for each model, a standard long-run cointegrating regression normalizing on the share index and a Vector error correction model (VECM). For all the models both techniques reveal a positive relationship between common stock and CPI with the coefficients for the long run cointegrating regression derived from the various models ranging between 1.41 – 3.62 while the coefficients from the VECM ranged from 1.42 - 4.85. The varying coefficients provide evidence of the heterogeneity of the hedging ability of common stocks. Overall the evidence from the long run cointegration regression suggests that in times of high inflation investors are most compensated for changes in inflation in common stocks relating to the Consumer Services and Health Care sectors, but that in general all sectors of the JSE provide some hedge for inflation. The results suggest that investors are compensated for changes in inflation if they invest in specific industries rather than in the All Share index, thus diversifying portfolios could provide a better hedge for inflation. Although positive coefficients were found the weak exogeneity test revealed only technology Index was caused by changes in CPI. The Paper concluded that in the long run all sectors provided protection against inflation during the period of study, but the evidence only fully supports the Fisher hypothesis for the Technology index, due to the results of the weak exogeneity test that revealed that CPI is weakly exogenous only in the equation of the Technology index.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2019
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