Understanding and quantifying channel transmission loss processes in the Limpopo River Basin
- Authors: Mvandaba, Vuyelwa
- Date: 2018
- Subjects: Water-supply -- Management , Water-supply -- Limpopo River Watershed , Alluvium -- Limpopo River Watershed , Streamflow -- Limpopo River Watershed
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MSc
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/63797 , vital:28490
- Description: Water availability is one of the major societal issues facing the world. The ability to understand and quantify the impact of key hydrological processes on the availability of water resources is therefore integral to ensuring equitable and sustainable resource management. A review of previous hydrological studies conducted in the Limpopo River Basin has revealed a gap in the understanding of surface water-groundwater interactions, particularly channel transmission loss processes. These earlier studies, focused largely on the Limpopo River’s main stem, have attributed the existence of these streamflow losses to the presence of significant alluvial aquifers and indicated that the losses account for about 30 percent (or 1000 Mm3 a-1) of the basin’s water balance. The work conducted in this dissertation reports on the delineation of alluvial aquifers across three sub-basins of the Limpopo River Basin namely, the Mokolo (South Africa), Motloutse (Botswana) and Mzingwane (Zimbabwe) sub-basins and the estimation of potential channel transmission losses based on the alluvial aquifer properties. Additionally, an assessment of the different approaches that can be applied to simulate these channel transmission losses in the Pitman Model is presented. To delineate alluvial aquifers, general land cover classes including alluvial aquifers were produced from Landsat-8 imagery through image classification. The areal extent of the delineated alluvial aquifers was calculated using ArcMap 10.3. To quantify channel transmission losses and determine the effects on regional water resources, three approaches using the Pitman model were applied. The three approaches include an explicit transmission loss function, the use of a wetland function to represent channel-floodplain storage exchanges and the use of a ‘dummy’ reservoir to represent floodplain storage and evapotranspiration losses. Results indicate that all three approaches were able to simulate channel transmission losses, although with differing magnitudes. Observed monthly flow data were used to as a means of validating loss simulations however for each sub-basin, medium and low flows were over-simulated which accounts for water uses that were inefficiently represented due to lack of data. Knowledge of the structure of the transmission loss function dictates that it is better at representing the dynamics of channel transmission losses, as it takes into account the contribution of losses to groundwater recharge whereas the other two functions simply store water and release it back to the channel. Overall, the hydrological modelling results demonstrate the potential of each approach in reproducing the dynamics of channel transmission losses between channel and alluvial aquifer within an existing sub-basin scale hydrological model. It is believed that better quantification of losses and more efficient qualitative determination of the function which best represents transmission losses, can be attained with more reliable observed data. In conclusion, a study of this nature can be beneficial to water resource estimation programmes as it highlights the uncertainties related with quantifying channel transmission loss processes in a semi-arid environment.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2018
Assessing MODIS evapotranspiration data for hydrological modelling in South Africa
- Authors: Mazibuko, Sbongiseni Christian
- Date: 2017
- Subjects: Evapotranspiration , Evapotranspiration -- Measurement , Hydrologic models , Hydrologic models -- South Africa , MODIS (Spectroradiometer)
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MSc
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/8009 , vital:21334
- Description: Evapotranspiration as a major component of the water balance has been identified as a key factor in hydrological modelling. Water management can be improved by means of increased use of reliable methods for estimating evapotranspiration. The limited availability of measured climate and discharge data sets, particularly in the developing world, restricts the reliability of hydrological models in these regions. Furthermore, rapid changes in hydrological systems with increasing development mean uncertainties in water resource estimation are growing. These changes are related to the modification of catchment hydrological processes with increasing human activity. Dealing with data uncertainty and quantifying the impacts of catchment activities are significant challenges that scientists in the field of hydrology face today. Uncertainties in hydrometeorological data are associated with poor observation networks that provide data at point scales which are not adequately representative of the inherent heterogeneity within catchment processes. Using uncertain data in model applications reduces the predictive power of hydrological models as well as the ability to validate the model outcomes. This study examines the potential of using remote sensing-based evapotranspiration data to reduce uncertainty in the climatic forcing data and constraining the output of a rainfall-runoff hydrological model. It is common to use fixed seasonally variable potential evapotranspiration (PET) instead of temporally varying PET data as inputs to standard rainfall-runoff models. Part of the reason is that there are relatively few stations available to measure a variety of meteorological input data needed to compute PET, as well as the apparent lack of sensitivity of rainfall-runoff models to different types of PET inputs. As hydrometeorological data become more readily available through the use of earth observation systems, it is important to determine whether rainfall-runoff models are sensitive to time-varying PET derived from these earth observations systems. Further potential includes the use of actual evapotranspiration (ETa) from this type of data to constrain model outputs and improve model realism. It is assumed that a better representation of evapotranspiration demands could improve the efficiency of models, and this study explores some of these issues. The study used evapotranspiration estimates (PET and ETa) from the MOD16 global product with one of the most widely used hydrological models in South Africa. The investigation included applying the Pitman model in a number of case study catchments located in different climatic regions of the country. The main objectives of the study included (i) the establishment of behavioural model parameter sets that generate acceptable hydrological response under both naturalised and present-day conditions, (ii) the use of time-varying PET estimates derived from MOD16 data to force the model, and (iii) the use of MOD16 ETa estimates to constrain model-simulated ETa. Before examining the use of different PET forcing data in the model, a two-step modelling approached was employed both a single-run and an uncertainty version of the Pitman model. During the first step (using a single-run version), available information on catchment physical properties and regionalised groundwater recharge together with model calibration principles were used to develop model functionality understanding and establish initial parameter sets. The outcomes from the first step were used to define uncertain parameter ranges for the use in the uncertainty version of the Pitman model (second step). Further, catchment water uses were quantified to ensure comparability with present-day flow conditions represented by the stream flow records. The effects of forcing the Pitman model with MOD16-based time-varying PET data inputs were evaluated using static and dynamic sensitivity analysis approaches. In the static approach, parameter sets calibrated using fixed seasonal distributions of PET data remain unchanged when forcing the model with other forms of PET, whereas in the dynamic method, the model is recalibrated with changing PET inputs. In both approaches, model sensitivity was assessed by comparing objective function statistics of reference flow simulations with those simulations incorporating changing PET data inputs. The use of the MOD16 ETa data to constrain model- simulated evapotranspiration losses was conducted by calibrating the parameters such that the simulated-ETa matched the evapotranspiration loss estimated from the MOD16 data. Despite issues around model equifinality and significant uncertainty within water use information, the Pitman model simulations were generally satisfactory and compared with observed stream flow data where available. The use of time-varying PET data does not improve the efficiency of the model when both static and dynamic sensitivity approaches are used. This was highly expected with the static approach where fixed model parameter sets do not account for the changes in evapotranspiration demands. However, with the dynamic approach, it was difficult to conclude why the model efficiency did not improve given the flexibility of the model to achieve appropriate parameter sets to different forms of PET. The study noted that the insensitivity of the model to changes in PET demands could be due to uncertainties in the model structure and MOD16 data. Attempts to constrain the model-simulated actual evapotranspiration with MOD16 ETa estimates were hampered by large errors in the MOD16 data and resulted in the non-closure of the catchment annual water balance, even when likely errors in the other components of the water balance were accounted for. There is still a great deal of work that needs to be done to reduce uncertainties associated with the use of earth observation data in hydrological modelling. This study has identified some of the specific gaps within the application of evapotranspiration data from earth observation information. While the MOD16 data applied with the Pitman model did not achieve improved simulations, the study has demonstrated the enormous potential of the data product in the future should the identified uncertainties be resolved. Lastly, the investigation highlighted some of the possible model structural uncertainties specifically associated with the simplified soil-moisture accounting routines within the model. It is possible that amending the model structure through investigating the dynamics of the relationship between soil moisture and evapotranspiration losses would assist in the improved utilisation of earth observation products related to the MOD16 ET data.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2017
Uncertainties in modelling hydrological responses in gauged and ungauged sub‐basins
- Authors: Tumbo, Madaka Harold
- Date: 2015
- Subjects: Hydrologic models , Watersheds -- Tanzania , Water-supply -- Tanzania -- Great Ruaha River Watershed , Water resources development -- Tanzania -- Great Ruaha River Watershed , Rain and rainfall -- Mathematical models , Rain gauges -- Tanzania -- Great Ruaha River Watershed , Great Ruaha River Watershed (Tanzania)
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Doctoral , PhD
- Identifier: vital:6053 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1018568
- Description: The world is undergoing rapid changes and the future is uncertain. The changes are related to modification of the landscape due to human activities, such as large and small scale irrigation, afforestation and changes to the climate system. Understanding and predicting hydrologic change is one of the challenges facing hydrologists today. Part of this understanding can be developed from observed data, however, there often too few observations and those that are available are frequently affected by uncertainties. Hydrological models have become essential tools for understanding historical variations of catchment hydrology and for predicting future possible trends. However, most developing countries are faced with poor spatial distributions of rainfall and evaporation stations that provide the data used to force models, as well as stream flow gauging stations to provide the data for establishing models and for evaluating their success. Hydrological models are faced with a number of challenges which include poor input data (data quality and poorly quantified human activities on observed stream flow data), uncertainties associated with model complexity and structure, the methods used to quantify model parameters, together with the difficulties of understanding hydrological processes at the catchment or subbasin. Within hydrological modelling, there is currently a trend of dealing with equifinality through the evaluation of parameter identifiability and the quantification of uncertainty bands associated with the predictions of the model. Hydrological models should not only focus on reproducing the past behaviour of a basin, but also on evaluating the representativeness of the surface and subsurface model components and their ability to simulate reality for the correct reasons. Part of this modelling process therefore involves quantifying and including all the possible sources of uncertainty. Uncertainty analysis has become the standard approach to most hydrological modelling studies, but has yet to be effectively used in practical water resources assessment. This study applied a hydrological modelling approach for understanding the hydrology of a large Tanzanian drainage basin, the Great Ruaha River that has many areas that are ungauged and where the available data (climate, stream flow and existing water use) are subject to varying degrees of uncertainty. The Great Ruaha River (GRR) is an upstream tributary of the Rufiji River Basin within Tanzania and covers an area of 86 000 km2. The basin is drained by four main tributaries; the Upper Great Ruaha, the Kisigo, the Little Ruaha and the Lukosi. The majority of the runoff is generated from the Chunya escarpment, the Kipengere ranges and the Poroto Mountains. The runoff generated feeds the alluvial and seasonally flooded Usangu plains (including the Ihefu perennial swamp). The majority of the irrigation water use in the basin is located where headwater sub‐basins drain towards the Usangu plains. The overall objective was to establish uncertain but behavioural hydrological models that could be useful for future water resources assessments that are likely to include issues of land use change, changes in patterns of abstraction and water use, as well the possibility of change in future climates.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2015
Modelling the relationship between flow and water quality in South African rivers
- Authors: Slaughter, Andrew Robert
- Date: 2011
- Subjects: Water quality -- Measurement -- South Africa Water quality -- Mathematical models -- South Africa Streamflow -- South Africa Stream measurements -- Mathematical models -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Doctoral , PhD
- Identifier: vital:6039 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1006196
- Description: The National Water Act (Act 36 of 1998) provides for an ecological Reserve as the quantity (flow) and quality of water needed to protect aquatic ecosystems. While there are methods available to quantify the ecological Reserve in terms of flow, methods of linking flow to water quality are lacking. Therefore, the research presented in this thesis investigated various modelling techniques to estimate the effect of flow on water quality. The aims of the research presented in this thesis were: Aim 1: Can the relationship between flow and water quality be accurately represented by simple statistical models? Aim 2: Can relatively simple models accurately represent the relationship between flow and water quality? Aim 3: Can the effect of diffuse sources be omitted from a water quality model and still obtain realistic simulations, and if so under what conditions? Aim 4: Can models that solely use historical monitoring data, accurately represent the relationships between flow and water quality? In Chapter 3, simple Q-C regressions of flow and water quality were investigated using Department of Water Affairs (DWA) historical monitoring data. It was found that while flow versus salinity regressions gave good regression fits in many cases, the Q-C regression approach is limited. A mechanistic/statistical model that attempted to estimate the point and diffuse signatures of nutrients in response to flow was developed in Chapter 4 using DWA historical monitoring data. The model was verified as accurate in certain case studies using observed point loading information. In Chapter 5, statistical models that link land cover information to diffuse nutrient signatures in response to flow using DWA historical data were developed. While the model estimations are uncertain due to a lack of data, they do provide an estimation of the diffuse signature within catchments where there is flow and land cover information available. Chapter 6 investigates the extension of an existing mass-balance salinity model to estimate the effect of saline irrigation return flow on in-stream salinity. The model gave accurate salinity estimates for a low order stream with little or no irrigation within its catchment, and for a permanently flowing river within a catchment used extensively for irrigation. Chapter 7 investigated a modelling method to estimate the reaction coefficients involved in nitrification using only DWA historical monitoring data. Here, the model used flow information to estimate the residence time of nutrients within the studied river reaches. While the model obtained good estimations of nitrification for the data it was applied to, very few DWA data sets were suitable for the model. Chapter 8 investigated the ability of the in-stream model QUAL2K to estimate nutrient concentrations downstream of point and diffuse inputs of nutrients. It was found that the QUAL2K model can give accurate results in cases where point sources dominate the total nutrient inputs into a river. However, the QUAL2K simulations are too uncertain in cases where there are large diffuse source inputs of nutrients as the load of the diffuse inputs is difficult to measure in the field. This research highlights the problem of data scarcity in terms of temporal resolution as well as the range of constituents measured within DWA historical monitoring data for water quality. This thesis in addition argues that the approach of applying a number of models is preferable to applying one model to investigate the research aims, as particular models would be suited to particular circumstances, and the development of new models allowed the research aims of this thesis to be explored more thoroughly. It is also argued that simpler models that simulate a few key processes that explain the variation in observed data, are more suitable for implementing Integrated Water Resource Management (IWRM) than large comprehensive water quality models. From this research, it is clear that simple statistical models are not adequate for modelling the relationship between flow and water quality, however, relatively simple mechanistic models that simulate a limited number of processes and water quality variables, can provide accurate representations of this relationship. Under conditions where diffuse sources are not a major factor within a catchment, models that omit diffuse sources can obtain realistic simulations of the relationship between flow and water quality. Most of the models investigated in this thesis demonstrate that accurate simulations of the relationships between flow and water quality can be obtained using solely historical monitoring data.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2011
Regional application of the Pitman monthly rainfall-runoff model in Southern Africa incorporating uncertainty
- Authors: Kapangaziwiri, Evison
- Date: 2011
- Subjects: Water supply -- Africa, Southern Water supply -- Measurement -- Africa, Southern Hydrology -- Mathematical models -- Africa, Southern Hydrologic models Rain and rainfall -- Mathematical models -- Africa, Southern Runoff -- Mathematical models
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Doctoral , PhD
- Identifier: vital:6037 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1006178
- Description: Climate change and a growing demand for freshwater resources due to population increases and socio-economic changes will make water a limiting factor (in terms of both quantity and quality) in development. The need for reliable quantitative estimates of water availability cannot be over-emphasised. However, there is frequently a paucity of the data required for this quantification as many basins, especially in the developing world, are inadequately equipped with monitoring networks. Existing networks are also shrinking due mainly to shortages in human and financial resources. Over the past few decades mathematical models have been used to bridge the data gap by generating datasets for use in management and policy making. In southern Africa, the Pitman monthly rainfall-runoff model has enjoyed relatively popular use as a water resources estimation tool. However, it is acknowledged that models are abstractions of reality and the data used to drive them is imperfect, making the model outputs uncertain. While there is acknowledgement of the limitations of modelled data in the southern African region among water practitioners, there has been little effort to explicitly quantify and account for this uncertainty in water resources estimation tools and explore how it affects the decision making process. Uncertainty manifests itself in three major areas of the modelling chain; the input data used to force the model, the parameter estimation process and the model structural errors. A previous study concluded that the parameter estimation process for the Pitman model contributed more to the global uncertainty of the model than other sources. While the literature abounds with uncertainty estimation techniques, many of these are dependent on observations and are therefore unlikely to be easily applicable to the southern African region where there is an acute shortage of such data. This study focuses on two aspects of making hydrologic predictions in ungauged basins. Firstly, the study advocates the development of an a priori parameter estimation process for the Pitman model and secondly, uses indices of hydrological functional behaviour to condition and reduce predictive uncertainty in both gauged and ungauged basins. In this approach all the basins are treated as ungauged, while the historical records in the gauged basins are used to develop regional indices of expected hydrological behaviour and assess the applicability of these methods. Incorporating uncertainty into the hydrologic estimation tools used in southern Africa entails rethinking the way the uncertain results can be used in further analysis and how they will be interpreted by stakeholders. An uncertainty framework is proposed. The framework is made up of a number of components related to the estimation of the prior distribution of the parameters, used to generate output ensembles which are then assessed and constrained using regionalised indices of basin behavioural responses. This is premised on such indices being based on the best available knowledge covering different regions. This framework is flexible enough to be used with any model structure to ensure consistent and comparable results. While the aim is to eventually apply the uncertainty framework in the southern African region, this study reports on the preliminary work on the development and testing of the framework components based on South African basins. This is necessitated by the variations in the availability and quality of the data across the region. Uncertainty in the parameter estimation process was incorporated by assuming uncertainty in the physical and hydro-meteorological data used to directly quantify the parameter. This uncertainty was represented by the range of variability of these basin characteristics and probability distribution functions were developed to account for this uncertainty and propagate it through the estimation process to generate posterior distributions for the parameters. The results show that the framework has a great deal of potential but can still be improved. In general, the estimated uncertain parameters managed to produce hydrologically realistic model outputs capturing the expected regimes across the different hydro-climatic and geo-physical gradients examined. The regional relationships for the three indices developed and tested in this study were in general agreement with existing knowledge and managed to successfully provide a multi-criteria conditioning of the model output ensembles. The feedback loop included in the framework enabled a systematic re-examination of the estimation procedures for both the parameters and the indices when inconsistencies in the results were identified. This improved results. However, there is need to carefully examine the issues and problems that may arise within other basins outside South Africa and develop guidelines for the use of the framework. , iText 1.4.6 (by lowagie.com)
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2011
Evaluating uncertainty in water resources estimation in Southern Africa : a case study of South Africa
- Authors: Sawunyama, Tendai
- Date: 2009
- Subjects: Water supply -- South Africa , Water supply -- Africa, Southern , Hydrology -- South Africa , Hydrology -- Africa, Southern , Hydrologic models , Hydrology research -- South Africa , Hydrology research -- Africa, Southern , Rain and rainfall -- Mathematical models , Runoff -- Mathematical models
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Doctoral , PhD
- Identifier: vital:6035 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1006176
- Description: Hydrological models are widely used tools in water resources estimation, but they are simple representations of reality and are frequently based on inadequate input data and uncertainties in parameter values. Data observation networks are expensive to establish and maintain and often beyond the resources of most developing countries. Consequently, measurements are difficult to obtain and observation networks in many countries are shrinking, hence obtaining representative observations in space and time remains a challenge. This study presents some guidelines on the identification, quantification and reduction of sources of uncertainty in water resources estimation in southern Africa, a data scarce region. The analyses are based on example sub-basins drawn from South Africa and the application of the Pitman hydrological model. While it has always been recognised that estimates of water resources availability for the region are subject to possible errors, the quantification of these uncertainties has never been explicitly incorporated into the methods used in the region. The motivation for this study was therefore to contribute to the future development of a revised framework for water resources estimation that does include uncertainty. The focus was on uncertainties associated with climate input data, parameter estimation (and recognizing the uncertainty due model structure deficiencies) methods and water use data. In addition to variance based measures of uncertainty, this study also used a reservoir yield based statistic to evaluate model output uncertainty, which represents an integrated measure of flow regime variations and one that can be more easily understood by water resources managers. Through a sensitivity analysis approach, the results of the individual contribution of each source of uncertainty suggest regional differences and that clear statements about which source of uncertainty is likely to dominate are not generally possible. Parameter sensitivity analysis was used in identifying parameters which are important withinspecific sub-basins and therefore those to focus on in uncertainty analysis. The study used a simple framework for evaluating the combined contribution of uncertainty sources to model outputs that is consistent with the model limitations and data available, and that allows direct quantitative comparison between model outputs obtained by using different sources of information and methods within Spatial and Time Series Information Modelling (SPATSIM) software. The results from combining the sources of uncertainties showed that parameter uncertainty dominates the contribution to model output uncertainty. However, in some parts of the country especially those with complex topography, which tend to experience high rainfall spatial variability, rainfall uncertainty is equally dominant, while the contributions of evaporation and water use data uncertainty are relatively small. While the results of this study are encouraging, the weaknesses of the methods used to quantify uncertainty (especially subjectivity involved in evaluating parameter uncertainty) should not be neglected and require further evaluations. An effort to reduce data and parameter uncertainty shows that this can only be achieved if data access at appropriate scale and quality improves. Perhaps the focus should be on maintaining existing networks and concentrating research efforts on making the most out of the emerging data products derived from remote sensing platforms. While this study presents some initial guidelines for evaluating uncertainty in South Africa, there is need to overcome several constraints which are related to data availability and accuracy, the models used and the capacity or willingness to adopt new methods that incorporate uncertainty. The study has provided a starting point for the development of new approaches to modelling water resources in the region that include uncertain estimates.
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- Date Issued: 2009
An erosion hazard assessment technique for Ciskei
- Authors: Weaver, Alex van Breda
- Date: 1989
- Subjects: Soil erosion -- South Africa -- Ciskei
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Doctoral , PhD
- Identifier: vital:4792 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1001892
- Description: The study examines the relationship between the spatial variation in soil erosion and various natural and anthropogenic attributes of the region between the coastal plateau and the Winterberg escarpment of Ciskei. A raster-based geographical information system is derived for four separate study catchments and data on soil erosion and various soil erosion hazard indices are read into a computerised data matrix. The independent variables (soil erosion hazard indices) used in the study are selected on the basis of a review of the literature and on the availability of data in the Ciskei region. Multivariate analyses of the relationship between soil erosion and the various independent variables reveals that the primary variables affecting the spatial variation in soil erosion are land use, dominant soil type, geology, veld type and mean annual precipitation. All of these variables are readily quantifiable at the regional scale for large areas of Ciskei. An erosion hazard assessment model for use in central Ciskei is developed based on the results of the statistical analyses. The model is tested in separate study areas and is shown to provide an efficient method of identifying areas of differing susceptibility to soil erosion. The derived model is simple to operate and has input requirements which are easily met. It can be applied without the aid of computers, or where large areas are to be mapped it is well suited to computerisation
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- Date Issued: 1989