List of Titles

Constraining simulation uncertainties in a hydrological model of the Congo River Basin including a combined modelling approach for channel-wetland exchanges

Authors: Kabuya, Pierre Mulamba
Date: 2021-04
Subjects: Congo River Watershed , Watersheds -- Congo (Democratic Republic) , Hydrologic models , Rain and rainfall -- Mathematical models , Runoff -- Mathematical models , Wetland hydrology
Language: English
Type: thesis , text , Doctoral , PhD
Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/177997 , vital:42897 , 10.21504/10962/177997
Description: Compared to other large river basins of the world, such as the Amazon, the Congo River Basin appears to be the most ungauged and less studied. This is partly because the basin lacks sufficient observational hydro-climatic monitoring stations and appropriate information on physiographic basin properties at a spatial scale deemed for hydrological applications, making it difficult to estimate water resources at the scale of sub-basins (Chapter 3). In the same time, the basin is facing the challenges related to rapid population growth, uncontrolled urbanisation as well as climate change. Adequate quantification of hydrological processes across different spatial and temporal scales in the basin, and the drivers of change, is essential for prediction and strategic planning to ensure sustainable management of water resources in the Congo River Basin. Hydrological models are particularly important to generate the required information. However, the shortness of the available streamflow records, lack of spatial representativeness of the available streamflow gauging stations and the lack of understanding of the processes in channel-wetland exchanges, are the main challenges that constrain the use of traditional approaches to models development. They also contribute to increased uncertainty in the estimation of water resources across the basin (Chapter 1 and 2). Given this ungauged nature of the Congo River Basin, it is important to resort to hydrological modelling approaches that can reasonably quantify and model the uncertainty associated with water resources estimation (Chapter 4) to make hydrological predictions reliable. This study explores appropriate methods for hydrological predictions and water resources assessment in ungauged catchments of the Congo River Basin. In this context, the core modelling framework combines the quantification of uncertainty in constraint indices, hydrological modelling and hydrodynamic modelling. The latter accounts for channel-wetland exchanges in sub-basins where wetlands exert considerable influence on downstream flow regimes at the monthly time scale. The constraint indices are the characteristics of a sub-basin’s long-term hydrological behaviour and may reflect the dynamics of the different components of the catchment water balance such as climate, water storage and different runoff processes. Currently, six constraint indices namely the mean monthly runoff volume (MMQ in m3 *106), mean monthly groundwater recharge depth (MMR in mm), the 10th, 50th and 90th percentiles of the flow duration curve expressed as a fraction of MMQ (Q10/MMQ, Q50/MMQ, Q90/MMQ) and the percentage of time that zero flows are expected (%Zero), are used in the modelling approach. These were judged to be the minimum number of key indices that can discriminate between different hydrological responses. The constraint indices in the framework help to determine an uncertainty range within which behavioural model parameters of the expected hydrological response can be identified. Predictive equations of the constraint indices across all climate and physiographic regions of the Congo Basin were based only on the aridity index because it was the most influential sub-basin attribute (Chapter 5) for which quantitative information was available. The degree of uncertainty in the constraint Q10/MMQ and Q50/MMQ indices is less than 41%, while it is somewhat higher for the mean monthly runoff (MMQ) and Q90/MMQ constraint indices. The established uncertainty ranges of the constraint indices were tested in some selected sub-basins of the Congo Basin, including the Lualaba (93 sub-basins), Sangha (24 sub-basins), Oubangui (19 sub-basins), Batéké plateaux (4 sub-basins), Kasai (4 sub-basins) and Inkisi (3 sub-basins). The results proved useful through the application of a 2-stage uncertainty approach of the PITMAN model. However, it comes out of this study that the application of the original constraint indices ranges (Chapter 5) generated satisfactory simulation results in some areas, while in others both small and large adjustments were required to fully capture some aspects of the observed hydrological responses (Chapter 6). Part of the reason is attributed to the availability and quality of streamflow data used to develop the constraint indices ranges (Chapter 5). The main issue identified in the modelling process was whether the changes made to the original constraints at headwater-gauged sub-basins can be applied to ungauged upstream sub-basins to match the observed flow at downstream gauging stations. Ideally, only gauged sub-basin’s constraints can be easily revised based on the observed flow. However, the refinement made to gauged sub-basins alone may fail to substantially affect the results if ungauged upstream sub-basins exert a major impact on defining downstream hydrological response. The majority of gauging stations used in this analysis are located downstream of many upstream ungauged sub-basins and therefore adjustments were required in ungauged sub-basins. These adjustments consist of shifting the full range of a constraint index either towards higher or lower values, depending on the degree to which the simulated uncertainty bounds depart from the observed flow. While this modelling approach seems effective in capturing many aspects of the hydrological responses with a reduced level of uncertainty compared to a previous study, it is recommended that the approach be extended to the remaining parts of the Congo Basin and assessed under current and future development conditions including environmental changes. A 2D hydrodynamic river-wetland model (LISFLOOD-FP) has been used to explicitly represent the inundation process exchanges between river channels and wetland systems. The hydrodynamic modelling outputs are used to calibrate the PITMAN wetland sub-model parameters. The five hydrodynamic models constructed for Ankoro, Kamalondo, Kundelungu, Mweru and Tshiangalele wetland systems have been partially validated using independent estimates of inundation extents available from Landsat imagery. Other sources of data such as remote sensing of water level altimetry, SAR images and wetland storage estimates may be used to improve the validation results. However, the important objective in this study was to make sure that flow volume exchanges between river channels and their adjacent floodplains were being simulated realistically. The wetland sub-model parameters are calibrated in a spreadsheet version of the PITMAN wetland routine to achieve visual correspondence between the LISFLOOD-FP and PITMAN wetland sub-model outputs (Storage volumes and channel outputs). The hysteretic patterns of the river-wetland processes were quantified using hysteresis indices and were associated with the spill and return flow parameters of the wetland sub-model and eventually with the wetland morphometric characteristics. One example is the scale parameter of the return flow function (AA), which shows a good relationship with the average surface slope of the wetland when the coefficient parameter (BB) of the same function is kept constant to a value of 1.25. The same parameter (AA) is a good indicator of the wetland emptying mechanism. A small AA indicates a wetland that slowly releases its flow, resulting in a highly delayed and attenuated hydrological response in downstream sub-basins. This understanding has a practical advantage for the estimation of the PITMAN wetland parameters in the many areas where it is not possible, or where the resources are not available, to run complex hydrodynamic models (Chapter 7). The inclusion of these LISFLOOD-FP informed wetland parameters in the basin-scale hydrological modelling results in acceptable simulations for the lower Lualaba drainage system. The small wetlands, like Ankoro and Tshiangalele, have a negligible impact on downstream flow regimes, whereas large wetlands, such as Kamalondo and Mweru, have very large impacts. In general, the testing of the original constraint indices in the region of wetlands and further downstream of the Lualaba drainage system has shown acceptable results. However, there remains an unresolved uncertainty issue related to the under and over-estimation of some aspects of the hydrological response at both Mulongo and Ankoro, two gauging stations in the immediate downstream of the Kamalondo wetland system. It is difficult to attribute this uncertainty to Kamalondo wetland parameters alone because many of the incremental sub-basins contributing to wetland inflows are ungauged. The issue at Mulongo is the under simulation of low flow, while the high flows at the Ankoro gauging station are over-simulated. However, the pattern of the calibrated constraint indices in this region (Chapter 8) shows that the under simulation of low flow at Mulongo cannot be attributed to incremental sub-basins (between Bukama, Kapolowe and Mulongo gauging stations), because their Q90/MMQ constraint indices are even slightly above the original constraint ranges, but maintain a spatial consistency with sub-basins of other regions. Similarly, sub-basins located between Mulongo, Luvua and Ankoro gauging stations have high flow indices slightly below the original constraint ranges and therefore they are unlikely to be responsible for the over simulation of high flow at the Ankoro gauging station. These facts highlight the need for a further understanding of the complex wetland system of Kamalondo. Short-term data collection and monitoring programme are required. Important tributaries that drain to this wetland need to be monitored by installing water level loggers and periodically collecting flow data and river bathymetry. This programme should lead to the development of rating curves of wetland input tributaries. This would partially solve the unresolved uncertainty issues at the Ankoro and Mulongo gauging stations. The integrated modelling approach offers many opportunities in the Congo Basin. The quantified and modelled uncertainty helps to identify regions with high uncertainty and allows for the identification of various data collection and management strategies that can potentially contribute to the uncertainty reduction. The quantified channel-wetland exchanges contribute to the improvement of the overall knowledge of water resources estimation within the regions where the effects of wetlands are evident even at the monthly time scale. In contrast, ignoring uncertainty in the estimates of water resources availability means that water resources planning and management decisions in the Congo Basin will continue to be based on inadequate information and unquantified uncertainty, thus increasing the risk associated with water resources decision making. , Thesis (PhD) -- Faculty of Science, Institute for Water Research, 2021
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Date Issued: 2021-04

A combined modelling approach for simulating channel–wetland exchanges in large African river basins

Authors: Makungu, Eunice J
Date: 2020
Subjects: Watersheds -- Africa , Watershed management -- Africa , Water resources development -- Africa -- International cooperation , Floodplain management -- Africa , Wetland ecology -- Simulation methods -- Africa , Wetland management -- Africa
Language: English
Type: text , Thesis , Doctoral , PhD
Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/123288 , vital:35424
Description: In Africa, many large and extensive wetlands are hydrologically connected to rivers, and their environmental integrity, as well as their influence on downstream flow regimes, depends on the prevailing channel–wetland exchange processes. These processes are inherently complex and vary spatially and temporally. Understanding channel–wetland exchanges is therefore, indispensable for the effective management of wetlands and the associated river basins. However, this information is limited in most of the river basins containing large wetlands in Africa. Furthermore, it is important to understand the links between upstream and downstream flow regimes and the wetland dynamics themselves, specifically where there are water resource developments that may affect these links (upstream developments), or be affected by them (downstream developments). Hydrological modelling of the entire basin using basin-scale models that include wetland components in their structures can be used to provide the information required to manage water resources in such basins. However, the level of detail of wetland processes included in many basin-scale models is typically very low and the lack of understanding of the wetland dynamics makes it difficult to quantify the relevant parameters. Detailed hydraulic models represent the channel-wetland exchanges in a much more explicit manner, but require relatively more data and time resources to establish than coarser scale hydrological models. The main objective of this study was, therefore, to investigate the use of a detailed hydraulic wetland model to provide a better understanding of channel–wetland exchanges and wetland dynamics, and to use the results to improve the parameterisation of a basin-scale model. The study focused on improving the water resource assessments modelling of three data-scarce African river basins that contain large wetlands: the floodplains of the Luangwa and Upper Zambezi River basins and the Usangu wetland in the Upper Great Ruaha River basin. The overall objective was achieved through a combined modelling approach that uses a detailed high-resolution LISFLOOD-FP hydraulic model to inform the structure and parameters of the GW Pitman monthly hydrological model. The results from the LISFLOOD-FP were used to improve the understanding of the channel–wetland exchange dynamics and to establish the wetland parameters required in the GW Pitman model. While some wetland parameters were directly quantified from the LISFLOOD-FP model results, others, which are highly empirical, were estimated by manually calibrating the GW Pitman wetland sub-model implemented in excel spreadsheets containing the LISFLOOD-FP model results. Finally, the GW Pitman model with the inclusion of the estimated wetland parameters was applied for each basin and the results compared to the available downstream observed flow data. The two models have been successfully applied in southern Africa, with the GW Pitman model being one of the most widely applied hydrological models in this region. To address the issue of data scarcity, during setup of these models, the study mainly relied on the global datasets which clearly adds to the overall uncertainty of the modelling approach. However, this is a typical situation for most of the data scarce regions of the continent. A number of challenges were, however, faced during the setup of the LISFLOOD-FP, mainly due to the limitations of the data inputs. Some of the LISFLOOD-FP data inputs include boundary conditions (upstream and downstream), channel cross-sections and wetland topography. In the absence of observed daily flows to quantify the wetland upstream boundary conditions, monthly flow volumes simulated using the GW Pitman monthly model (without including the wetland sub-model) were disaggregated into daily flows using a disaggregation sub-model. The simulated wetland inflows were evaluated using the observed flow data for downstream gauging stations that include the wetland effects. The results highlighted that it is important to understand the possible impacts of each wetland on the downstream flow regime during the evaluations of the model simulation results. Although the disaggregation approach cannot be validated due to a lack of observed data, it at least enables the simulated monthly flows to be used in the daily time step hydraulic model. One of the recommendations is that improvements are required in gauging station networks to provide more observed information for the main river and the larger tributary inflows into these large and important wetland systems. Even a limited amount of newly observed data would be helpful to reduce some of the uncertainties in the combined modelling approach. The SRTM 90 m DEM (used to represent wetland topography) was filtered to reduce local variations and noise effects (mainly vegetation bias), but there were some pixels that falsely affect the inundation results, and the recently released vegetation-corrected DEMs are suggested to improve the simulation results. Channel cross-section values derived from global datasets should be examined because some widths estimated from the Andreadis et al. (2013) dataset were found to be over-generalised and did not reflect widths measured using high-resolution Google Earth in many places. There is an indication that channel cross-sections digitised from Google Earth images can be successfully used in the model setup except in densely vegetated swamps where the values are difficult to estimate, and in such situations, field measured cross-section data are required. Small channels such as those found in the Usangu wetland could play major role in the exchange dynamics, but digitising them all was not straightforward and only key ones were included in the model setup. Clearly, this inevitably introduced uncertainties in the simulated results, and future studies should consider applying methods that simplify extractions of most of these channels from high-resolution images to improve the simulated results. The study demonstrated that the wetland and channel physical characteristics, as well as the seasonal flow magnitude, largely influence the channel–wetland exchanges and wetland dynamics. The inundation results indicated that the area–storage and storage–inflow relationships form hysteretic curves, but the shape of these curves vary with flood magnitude and wetland type. Anticlockwise hysteresis curves were observed in both relationships for the floodplains (Luangwa and Barotse), whereas there appears to be no dominant curve type for the Usangu wetlands. The lack of well-defined hysteretic relationships in the Usangu could be related to some of the difficulties (and resulting uncertainties) that were experienced in setting up the model for this wetland. The storage–inflow relationships in all wetlands have quite complex rising limbs due to multiple flow peaks during the main wet season. The largest inundation area and storage volume for the Barotse and Usangu wetlands occurred after the peak discharge of the wet season, a result that is clearly related to the degree of connectivity between the main channel and those areas of the wetlands that are furthest away from the channel. Hysteresis effects were found to increase with an increase in flood magnitudes and temporal variations in the wetland inflows. Overall, hysteresis behaviour is common in large wetlands and it is recommended that hysteresis curves should be reflected in basin-scale modelling of large river basins with substantial wetland areas. At a daily time scale, inflow–outflow relationships showed a significant peak reduction and a delayed time to peak of several weeks in the Barotse and Usangu wetlands, whereas the attenuation effects of the Luangwa floodplain are minimal. To a large extent, the LISFLOOD-FP results provided useful information to establish wetland parameters and assess the structure of Pitman wetland sub-model. The simple spreadsheet used to estimate wetland parameters did not account for the wetland water transfers from the upstream to the next section downstream (the condition that is included in the LISFLOOD-FP model) for the case when the wetlands were distributed across more than one sub-basin. It is recommended that a method that allows for the upstream wetland inflows and the channel inflows should be included in the spreadsheet. The same is true to the Pitman model structure, and a downstream transfer of water can be modelled through return flows to the channel. The structure of the wetland sub-model was modified to allow an option for the return flows to occur at any time during the simulation period to provide for types of wetlands (e.g. the Luangwa) where spills from the channel and drainage back to the channel occur simultaneously. The setup of the GW Pitman model with the inclusion of wetland parameters improved the simulation results. However, the results for the Usangu wetlands were not very satisfactory and the collection of additional field data related to exchange dynamics is recommended to achieve improvements. The impacts of the Luangwa floodplain on the flow regime of the Luangwa River are very small at the monthly time scale, whereas the Barotse floodplain system and the Usangu wetlands extensively regulate flows of the Zambezi River and the Great Ruaha River, respectively. The results highlighted the possibilities of regionalising some wetland parameters using an understanding of wetland physical characteristics and their water exchange dynamics. However, some parameters remain difficult to quantify in the absence of site-specific information about the water exchange dynamics. The overall conclusion is that the approach implemented in this study presents an important step towards the improvements of water resource assessments modelling for research and practical purposes in data-scarce river basins. This approach is not restricted to the two used models, as it can be applied using different model combinations to achieve similar study purpose.
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Date Issued: 2020

A hydrogeological investigation of Grahamstown, assessing both the dynamics and quality of the local groundwater system

Authors: Smetherham, Kyle Norman
Date: 2019
Subjects: Hydrogeology -- South Africa -- Makhanda , Water quality -- South Africa -- Makhanda , Groundwater -- Quality -- South Africa -- Makhanda
Language: English
Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MSc
Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/94444 , vital:31045
Description: In many parts of South Africa, complete allocation of surface water reservoirs together with current drought conditions has led to serious water shortages and subsequent awareness regarding the importance to save water. Grahamstown is no different, with water problems relating to low supply and high demand being compounded by insufficient treatment capacity and aging infrastructure. Groundwater is an alternative water resource that could potentially act as a supplementary and/or emergency supply to the town, reducing the reliability on surface reservoirs. Groundwater however, is a hidden resource and requires an understanding of various aquifer properties and continuous monitoring and modelling so not to permanently disrupt the natural system but rather achieve sustainable management. Grahamstown is situated towards the northern extent of the Cape Fold Belt (CFB) system, within a synclinal fold structure. The local geology forms two local aquifer systems beneath Grahamstown that directly influence both the dynamics and quality of the groundwater. These underground reservoirs are the Witpoort and Dwyka aquifers and can be described as a semi-confined, fractured, quartzitic sandstone aquifer and an unconfined, fractured, tillite aquifer, respectively. Separating these aquifer systems is a shale aquitard, although due to the fractured nature of the rocks in the region there is most likely some groundwater interaction between them. Evaluation of geological formations together with the monitoring of 31 local boreholes presented a valuable conceptualisation of the local system and allowed for the application of methods to estimate recharge. Recharge estimation is one of the most crucial factors when managing aquifer systems as it can be used to determine what proportion of rainfall contributes to the subsurface reservoir and therefore, the sustainable amount that can be extracted. Various methods have been developed to estimate recharge, however due to the uncertainty surrounding groundwater systems, especially fractured aquifers, it was important to apply multiple methods to validate results. The water-table fluctuation (WTF) and cumulative rainfall departure (CRD) are two methods that were used in the present study to determine recharge. These methods rely on water-table changes in boreholes and specifically how they respond to rainfall events. Along with the WTF and CRD methods, a modelling approach was also used to estimate recharge which focused on the dynamics of a natural groundwater outlet, termed the Fairview Spring. This natural spring system is located just outside the main town of Grahamstown, within the Witpoort aquifer system, and is an important water resource to many residents due to poor supply and quality of municipal water. Monitoring the discharge of this spring allowed for the development of a model which attempts to recreate the discharge conditions observed. Along with groundwater recharge, other processes added to the model include evapotranspiration, storage, interflow spring outflow and groundwater outflow. Several different model simulation scenarios provided valuable insight into the greater groundwater dynamics. In terms of groundwater quality, nine borehole samples and one spring sample were analysed for major ions (Ca, Na, K, Cl, Mg, SO4, HCO3), metals (Cu, Fe, Mn) as well as pH and electrical conductivity. Overall electrical conductivity levels and major ion concentrations were lower in the Witpoort aquifer indicating a better groundwater quality compared to that of the Dwyka aquifer. Of the three metals included in the analysis, Mn proved to be the most significant and the highest concentrations were produced for samples that intersected the shale aquitard unit, suggesting that Mn-containing groundwater is drawn from this geological layer. Development of a supplementary and/or emergency groundwater supply requires careful consideration of the geology, quantity, quality, and recharge in the study site. All these aspects were assessed as well as deliberation into the potential infrastructural costs involved. Through conceptualisation of the system; evidence gathered during basic monitoring; and a simple spring model, the current study aimed to explore certain management strategies and recommend potential options going forward. The hidden nature of the resource together with the heterogeneity of fracture networks creates an inevitable uncertainty surrounding the system. Proper development and management of the aquifer can only be achieved if the system is continually monitored, modelled and utilised sustainably.
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Date Issued: 2019

An erosion and sediment delivery model for semi-arid catchments

Authors: Bryson, Louise Kay
Date: 2016
Subjects: Sedimentation and deposition , Erosion , Watershed management -- South Africa , Water-supply -- South Africa
Language: English
Type: Thesis , Masters , MSc
Identifier: vital:6056 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1020331
Description: Sedimentation has become a significant environmental threat in South Africa as it intensifies water management problems in the water-scarce semi-arid regions of the country. As South Africa already allocates 98% of available water, the loss of storage capacity in reservoirs and degraded water quality has meant that a reliable water supply is compromised. The overall aim of this thesis was to develop a catchment scale model that represents the sediment dynamics of semi-arid regions of South Africa as a simple and practically applicable tool for water resource managers. Development of a conceptual framework for the model relied on an understanding of both the sediment dynamics of South African catchments and applicable modelling techniques. Scale was an issue in both cases as most of our understanding of the physical processes of runoff generation and sediment transport has been derived from plot scale studies. By identifying defining properties of semi-arid catchments it was possible to consider how temporal and spatial properties at higher levels emerged from properties at lower levels. These properties were effectively represented by using the Pitman rainfall-runoff model disaggregated to a daily timescale, the Modified Universal Soil Loss Equation (MUSLE) model incorporating probability function theory and through the representation of sediment storages across a semi-distributed catchment. The model was tested on two small and one large study catchment in the Karoo, South Africa, with limited observed data. Limitations to the model were found to be the large parameter data set and the dominance of structural constraints with an increase in catchment size. The next steps in model development will require a reduction of the parameter data set and an inclusion of an in-stream component for sub-catchments at a larger spatial scale. The model is applicable in areas such as South Africa where water resource managers need a simple model at the catchment scale in order to make decisions. This type of model provides a simple representation of the stochastic nature of erosion and sediment delivery over large spatial and temporal scales.
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Date Issued: 2016

Investigating integrated catchment management using a simple water quantity and quality model : a case study of the Crocodile River Catchment, South Africa

Authors: Retief, Daniel Christoffel Hugo
Date: 2015
Subjects: Watersheds -- South Africa -- Krokodilrivier (Mpumalanga) , Integrated water development -- South Africa -- Krokodilrivier (Mpumalanga) , Water quality management -- South Africa -- Krokodilrivier (Mpumalanga) , Water-supply -- South Africa -- Krokodilrivier (Mpumalanga) , Water quality -- Measurement
Language: English
Type: Thesis , Masters , MSc
Identifier: vital:6050 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1017875
Description: Internationally, water resources are facing increasing pressure due to over-exploitation and pollution. Integrated Water Resource Management (IWRM) has been accepted internationally as a paradigm for integrative and sustainable management of water resources. However, in practice, the implementation and success of IWRM policies has been hampered by the lack of availability of integrative decision support tools, especially within the context of limited resources and observed data. This is true for the Crocodile River Catchment (CRC), located within the Mpumalanga Province of South Africa. The catchment has been experiencing a decline in water quality as a result of the point source input of a cocktail of pollutants, which are discharged from industrial and municipal wastewater treatment plants, as well as diffuse source runoff and return flows from the extensive areas of irrigated agriculture and mining sites. The decline in water quality has profound implications for a range of stakeholders across the catchment including increased treatment costs and reduced crop yields. The combination of deteriorating water quality and the lack of understanding of the relationships between water quantity and quality for determining compliance/non-compliance in the CRC have resulted in collaboration between stakeholders, willing to work in a participatory and transparent manner to create an Integrated Water Quality Management Plan (IWQMP). This project aimed to model water quality, (combined water quality and quantity), to facilitate the IWQMP aiding in the understanding of the relationship between water quantity and quality in the CRC. A relatively simple water quality model (WQSAM) was used that receives inputs from established water quantity systems models, and was designed to be a water quality decision support tool for South African catchments. The model was applied to the CRC, achieving acceptable simulations of total dissolved solids (used as a surrogate for salinity) and nutrients (including orthophosphates, nitrates +nitrites and ammonium) for historical conditions. Validation results revealed that there is little consistency within the catchment, attributed to the non-stationary nature of water quality at many of the sites in the CRC. The analyses of the results using a number of representations including, seasonal load distributions, load duration curves and load flow plots, confirmed that the WQSAM model was able to capture the variability of relationships between water quantity and quality, provided that simulated hydrology was sufficiently accurate. The outputs produced by WQSAM was seen as useful for the CRC, with the Inkomati-Usuthu Catchment Management Agency (IUCMA) planning to operationalise the model in 2015. The ability of WQSAM to simulate water quality in data scarce catchments, with constituents that are appropriate for the needs of water resource management within South Africa, is highly beneficial.
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Date Issued: 2015

The use of hydrological information to improve flood management-integrated hydrological modelling of the Zambezi River basin

Authors: Vilanculos, Agostinho Chuquelane Fadulo
Date: 2015
Subjects: Hydrologic models -- Zambezi River Watershed , Watershed management -- Zambezi River Watershed , Water resources development -- Zambezi River Watershed , Flood control -- Zambezi River Watershed , Flood forecasting -- Zambezi River Watershed , Rain gauges -- Zambezi River Watershed
Language: English
Type: Thesis , Doctoral , PhD
Identifier: vital:6054 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1018915
Description: The recent high profile flooding events – that have occurred in many parts of the world – have drawn attention to the need for new and improved methods for water resources assessment, water management and the modelling of large-scale flooding events. In the case of the Zambezi Basin, a review of the 2000 and 2001 floods identified the need for tools to enable hydrologists to assess and predict daily stream flow and identify the areas that are likely to be affected by flooding. As a way to address the problem, a methodology was set up to derive catchment soil moisture statistics from Earth Observation (EO) data and to study the improvements brought about by an assimilation of this information into hydrological models for improving reservoir management in a data scarce environment. Rainfall data were obtained from the FEWSNet Web site and computed by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climatic Prediction Center (NOAA/CPC). These datasets were processed and used to monitor rainfall variability and subsequently fed into a hydrological model to predict the daily flows for the Zambezi River Basin. The hydrological model used was the Geospatial Stream Flow Model (GeoSFM), developed by the United States Geological Survey (USGS). GeoSFM is a spatially semi-distributed physically-based hydrological model, parameterised using spatially distributed topographic data, soil characteristics and land cover data sets available globally from both Remote Sensing and in situ sources. The Satellite rainfall data were validated against data from twenty (20) rainfall gauges located on the Lower Zambezi. However, at several rain gauge stations (especially those with complex topography, which tended to experience high rainfall spatial variability), there was no direct correlation between the satellite estimates and the ground data as recorded in daily time steps. The model was calibrated for seven gauging stations. The calibrated model performed quite well at seven selected locations (R2=0.66 to 0.90, CE=0.51 to 0.88, RSR=0.35 to 0.69, PBIAS=−4.5 to 7.5). The observed data were obtained from the National Water Agencies of the riparian countries. After GeoSFM calibration, the model generated an integration of the flows into a reservoir and hydropower model to optimise the operation of Kariba and Cahora Bassa dams. The Kariba and Cahora Bassa dams were selected because this study considers these two dams as the major infrastructures for controlling and alleviating floods in the Zambezi River Basin. Other dams (such as the Kafue and Itezhi-Thezi) were recognised in terms of their importance but including them was beyond the scope of this study because of financial and time constraints. The licence of the reservoir model was limited to one year for the same reason. The reservoir model used was the MIKE BASIN, a professional engineering software package and quasi-steady-state mass balance modelling tool for integrated river basin and management, developed by the Denmark Hydraulic Institute (DHI) in 2003. The model was parameterised by the geometry of the reservoir basin (level, area, volume relationships) and by the discharge-level (Q-h) relationship of the dam spillways. The integrated modelling system simulated the daily flow variation for all Zambezi River sub-basins between 1998 and 2008 and validated between 2009 and 2011. The resulting streamflows have been expressed in terms of hydrograph comparisons between simulated and observed flow values at the four gauging stations located downstream of Cahora Bassa dam. The integrated model performed well, between observed and forecast streamflows, at four selected gauging stations (R2=0.53 to 0.90, CE=0.50 to 0.80, RSR=0.49 to 0.69, PBIAS=−2.10 to 4.8). From the results of integrated modelling, it was observed that both Kariba and Cahora Bassa are currently being operated based on the maximum rule curve and both remain focused on maximising hydropower production and ensuring dam safety rather than other potential influences by the Zambezi River (such as flood control downstream – where the communities are located – and environmental issues). In addition, the flood mapping analysis demonstrated that the Cahora Bassa dam plays an important part in flood mitigation downstream of the dams. In the absence of optimisation of flow releases from both the Kariba and Cahora Bassa dams, in additional to the contribution of any other tributaries located downstream of the dams, the impact of flooding can be severe. As such, this study has developed new approaches for flood monitoring downstream of the Zambezi Basin, through the application of an integrated modelling system. The modelling system consists of: predicting daily streamflow (using the calibrated GeoSFM), then feeding the predicted streamflow into MIKE BASIN (for checking the operating rules) and to optimise the releases. Therefore, before releases are made, the flood maps can be used as a decision-making tool to both assess the impact of each level of release downstream and to identify the communities likely to be affected by the flood – this ensures that the necessary warnings can be issued before flooding occurs. Finally an integrated flood management tool was proposed – to host the results produced by the integrated system – which would then be accessible for assessment by the different users. These results were expressed in terms of water level (m). Four discharge-level (Q-h) relationships were developed for converting the simulated flow into water level at four selected sites downstream of Cahora Bassa dam – namely: Cahora Bassa dam site, Tete (E-320), Caia (E-291) and Marromeu (E-285). However, the uncertainties in these predictions suggested that improved monitoring systems may be achieved if data access at appropriate scale and quality was improved.
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Date Issued: 2015

Water resources availability in the Caledon River basin : past, present and future

Authors: Mohobane, Thabiso
Date: 2015
Subjects: Water-supply -- South Africa -- Caledon River Valley , Climatic changes -- South Africa -- Caledon River Valley , Hydrologic models -- South Africa -- Caledon River Valley , Precipitation forecasting -- South Africa -- Caledon River Valley , Water-supply -- Forecasting , Runoff -- Mathematical models , Evapotranspiration -- South Africa -- Caledon River Valley
Language: English
Type: Thesis , Doctoral , PhD
Identifier: vital:6055 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1019802
Description: The Caledon River Basin is located on one of the most water-scarce region on the African continent. The water resources of the Caledon River Basin play a pivotal role in socio-economic activities in both Lesotho and South Africa but the basin experiences recurrent severe droughts and frequent water shortages. The Caledon River is mostly used for commercial and subsistence agriculture, industrial and domestic supply. The resources are also important beyond the basin’s boundaries as the water is transferred to the nearby Modder River. The Caledon River is also a significant tributary to the Orange-Senqu Basin, which is shared by five southern African countries. However, the water resources in the basin are under continuous threat as a result of rapidly growing population, economic growth as well as changing climate, amongst others. It is therefore important that the hydrological regime and water resources of the basin are thoroughly evaluated and assessed so that they can be sustainably managed and utilised for maximum economic benefits. Climate change has been identified by the international community as one of the most prominent threats to peace, food security and livelihood and southern Africa as among the most vulnerable regions of the world. Water resources are perceived as a natural resource which will be affected the most by the changing climate conditions. Global warming is expected to bring more severe, prolonged droughts and exacerbate water shortages in this region. The current study is mainly focused on investigating the impacts of climate change on the water resources of the Caledon River Basin. The main objectives of the current study included assessing the past and current hydrological characteristics of the Caledon River Basin under current state of the physical environment, observed climate conditions and estimated water use; detecting any changes in the future rainfall and evaporative demands relative to present conditions and evaluating the impacts of climate on the basin’s hydrological regime and water resources availability for the future climate scenario, 2046-2065. To achieve these objectives the study used observed hydrological, meteorological data sets and the basin’s physical characteristics to establish parameters of the Pitman and WEAP hydrological models. Hydrological modelling is an integral part of hydrological investigations and evaluations. The various sources of uncertainties in the outputs of the climate and hydrological models were identified and quantified, as an integral part of the whole exercise. The 2-step approach of the uncertainty version of the model was used to estimate a range of parameters yielding behavioural natural flow ensembles. This approach uses the regional and local hydrological signals to constrain the model parameter ranges. The estimated parameters were also employed to guide the calibration process of the Water Evaluation And Planning (WEAP) model. The two models incorporated the estimated water uses within the basin to establish the present day flow simulations and they were found to sufficiently simulate the present day flows, as compared to the observed flows. There is an indication therefore, that WEAP can be successfully applied in other regions for hydrological investigations. Possible changes in future climate regime of the basin were evaluated by analysing downscaled temperature and rainfall outputs from a set of 9 climate models. The predictions are based on the A2 greenhouse gases emission scenario which assumes a continuous increase in emission rates. While the climate models agree that temperature, and hence, evapotranspiration will increase in the future, they demonstrate significant disagreement on whether rainfall will decrease or increase and by how much. The disagreement of the GCMs on projected future rainfall constitutes a major uncertainty in the prediction of water resources availability of the basin. This is to the extent that according to 7 out of 9 climate models used, the stream flow in four sub-basins (D21E, D22B, D23D and D23F) in the Caledon River Basin is projected to decrease below the present day flows, while two models (IPSL and MIUB) consistently project enhanced water resource availability in the basin in the future. The differences in the GCM projections highlight the margin of uncertainty involved predicting the future status of water resources in the basin. Such uncertainty should not be ignored and these results can be useful in aiding decision-makers to develop policies that are robust and that encompass all possibilities. In an attempt to reduce the known uncertainties, the study recommends upgrading of the hydrological monitoring network within the Caledon River Basin to facilitate improved hydrological evaluation and management. It also suggests the use of updated climate change data from the newest generation climate models, as well as integrating the findings of the current research into water resources decision making process.
Full Text:
Date Issued: 2015

Climate variability and climate change in water resources management of the Zambezi River basin

Authors: Tirivarombo, Sithabile
Date: 2013
Subjects: Water resources development -- Zambezi River Watershed Climatic changes -- Zambezi River Watershed Water-supply -- Zambezi River Watershed Water-supply -- Political aspects -- Africa, Southern Water rights -- Africa, Southern Water security -- Africa, Southern Rain and rainfall -- Africa, Southern Rainfall probabilities -- Africa, Southern Food security -- Africa, Southern Drought forecasting -- Africa, Southern Watersheds -- Africa, Southern Water supply -- Measurement -- Africa, Southern
Language: English
Type: Thesis , Doctoral , PhD
Identifier: vital:6024 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002955
Description: Water is recognised as a key driver for social and economic development in the Zambezi basin. The basin is riparian to eight southern African countries and the transboundary nature of the basin’s water resources can be viewed as an agent of cooperation between the basin countries. It is possible, however, that the same water resource can lead to conflicts between water users. The southern African Water Vision for ‘equitable and sustainable utilisation of water for social, environmental justice and economic benefits for the present and future generations’ calls for an integrated and efficient management of water resources within the basin. Ensuring water and food security in the Zambezi basin is, however, faced with challenges due to high variability in climate and the available water resources. Water resources are under continuous threat from pollution, increased population growth, development and urbanisation as well as global climate change. These factors increase the demand for freshwater resources and have resulted in water being one of the major driving forces for development. The basin is also vulnerable due to lack of adequate financial resources and appropriate water resources infrastructure to enable viable, equitable and sustainable distribution of the water resources. This is in addition to the fact that the basin’s economic mainstay and social well-being are largely dependent on rainfed agriculture. There is also competition among the different water users and this has the potential to generate conflicts, which further hinder the development of water resources in the basin. This thesis has focused on the Zambezi River basin emphasising climate variability and climate change. It is now considered common knowledge that the global climate is changing and that many of the impacts will be felt through water resources. If these predictions are correct then the Zambezi basin is most likely to suffer under such impacts since its economic mainstay is largely determined by the availability of rainfall. It is the belief of this study that in order to ascertain the impacts of climate change, there should be a basis against which this change is evaluated. If we do not know the historical patterns of variability it may be difficult to predict changes in the future climate and in the hydrological resources and it will certainly be difficult to develop appropriate management strategies. Reliable quantitative estimates of water availability are a prerequisite for successful water resource plans. However, such initiatives have been hindered by paucity in data especially in a basin where gauging networks are inadequate and some of them have deteriorated. This is further compounded by shortages in resources, both human and financial, to ensure adequate monitoring. To address the data problems, this study largely relied on global data sets and the CRU TS2.1 rainfall grids were used for a large part of this study. The study starts by assessing the historical variability of rainfall and streamflow in the Zambezi basin and the results are used to inform the prediction of change in the future. Various methods of assessing historical trends were employed and regional drought indices were generated and evaluated against the historical rainfall trends. The study clearly demonstrates that the basin has a high degree of temporal and spatial variability in rainfall and streamflow at inter-annual and multi-decadal scales. The Standardised Precipitation Index, a rainfall based drought index, is used to assess historical drought events in the basin and it is shown that most of the droughts that have occurred were influenced by climatic and hydrological variability. It is concluded, through the evaluation of agricultural maize yields, that the basin’s food security is mostly constrained by the availability of rainfall. Comparing the viability of using a rainfall based index to a soil moisture based index as an agricultural drought indicator, this study concluded that a soil moisture based index is a better indicator since all of the water balance components are considered in the generation of the index. This index presents the actual amount of water available for the plant unlike purely rainfall based indices, that do not account for other components of the water budget that cause water losses. A number of challenges were, however, faced in assessing the variability and historical drought conditions, mainly due to the fact that most parts of the Zambezi basin are ungauged and available data are sparse, short and not continuous (with missing gaps). Hydrological modelling is frequently used to bridge the data gap and to facilitate the quantification of a basin’s hydrology for both gauged and ungauged catchments. The trend has been to use various methods of regionalisation to transfer information from gauged basins, or from basins with adequate physical basin data, to ungauged basins. All this is done to ensure that water resources are accounted for and that the future can be well planned. A number of approaches leading to the evaluation of the basin’s hydrological response to future climate change scenarios are taken. The Pitman rainfall-runoff model has enjoyed wide use as a water resources estimation tool in southern Africa. The model has been calibrated for the Zambezi basin but it should be acknowledged that any hydrological modelling process is characterised by many uncertainties arising from limitations in input data and inherent model structural uncertainty. The calibration process is thus carried out in a manner that embraces some of the uncertainties. Initial ranges of parameter values (maximum and minimum) that incorporate the possible parameter uncertainties are assigned in relation to physical basin properties. These parameter sets are used as input to the uncertainty version of the model to generate behavioural parameter space which is then further modified through manual calibration. The use of parameter ranges initially guided by the basin physical properties generates streamflows that adequately represent the historically observed amounts. This study concludes that the uncertainty framework and the Pitman model perform quite well in the Zambezi basin. Based on assumptions of an intensifying hydrological cycle, climate changes are frequently expected to result in negative impacts on water resources. However, it is important that basin scale assessments are undertaken so that appropriate future management strategies can be developed. To assess the likely changes in the Zambezi basin, the calibrated Pitman model was forced with downscaled and bias corrected GCM data. Three GCMs were used for this study, namely; ECHAM, GFDL and IPSL. The general observation made in this study is that the near future (2046-2065) conditions of the Zambezi basin are expected to remain within the ranges of historically observed variability. The differences between the predictions for the three GCMs are an indication of the uncertainties in the future and it has not been possible to make any firm conclusions about directions of change. It is therefore recommended that future water resources management strategies account for historical patterns of variability, but also for increased uncertainty. Any management strategies that are able to satisfactorily deal with the large variability that is evident from the historical data should be robust enough to account for the near future patterns of water availability predicted by this study. However, the uncertainties in these predictions suggest that improved monitoring systems are required to provide additional data against which future model outputs can be assessed.
Full Text:
Date Issued: 2013

Development of a hydraulic sub-model as part of a desktop environmental flow assessment method

Authors: Desai, Ahmed Yacoob
Date: 2012
Subjects: Hydrologic models -- Research -- South Africa Hydraulic engineering -- South Africa Rivers -- South Africa
Language: English
Type: Thesis , Doctoral , PhD
Identifier: vital:6041 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1006200
Description: Countries around the world have been developing ecological policies to protect their water resources and minimise the impacts of development on their river systems. The concept of ‘minimum flows’ was initially established as a solution but it did not provide sufficient protection as all elements of a flow regime were found to be important for the protection of the river ecosystem. “Environmental flows” were developed to determine these flow regimes to maintain a river in some defined ecological condition. Rapid, initial estimates of the quantity component of environmental flows may be determined using the Desktop Reserve Model in South Africa. However, the Desktop Reserve Model is dependent upon the characteristics of the reference natural hydrology used. The advancements in hydraulic and ecological relationships from the past decade have prompted the development of a Revised Desktop Reserve Model (RDRM) that would incorporate these relationships. The research in this thesis presents the development of the hydraulic sub-model for the RDRM. The hydraulic sub-model was designed to produce a realistic representation of the hydraulic conditions using hydraulic parameters/characteristics from readily available information for any part of South Africa. Hydraulic data from past EWR studies were used to estimate the hydraulic parameters. These estimated hydraulic parameters were used to develop hydraulic estimation relationships and these relationships were developed based on a combination of regression and rule-based procedures. The estimation relationships were incorporated into the hydraulic sub-model of the integrated RDRM and assessments of the hydraulic outputs and EWR results were undertaken to assess the ‘applicability’ of the hydraulic sub-model. The hydraulic sub-model was assessed to be at a stage where it can satisfactorily be incorporated in the RDRM and that it is adequately robust in many situations. Recommendations for future work include the refinement of estimation of the channel forming discharge or the use of spatial imagery to check the maximum channel width estimation. It is also proposed that a future version of the hydraulic sub-model could include flow regime change impacts on channel geomorphology and sedimentology so that flow management scenarios can be more effectively assessed.
Full Text:
Date Issued: 2012

Hydrological proceses, chemical variability, and multiple isotopestracing of water flow paths in the Kudumela Wetland- Limpopo Province, South Africa

Authors: Mekiso, Feleke Abiyo
Date: 2011
Subjects: Kudumela Wetland -- South Africa -- Limpopo , Wetland hydrology -- South Africa -- Limpopo , Wetlands -- South Africa -- Limpopo , Wetland conservation -- South Africa -- Limpopo , Wetland management -- South Africa -- Limpopo , Isotopes
Language: English
Type: Thesis , Masters , MSc
Identifier: vital:6027 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1006153 , Kudumela Wetland -- South Africa -- Limpopo , Wetland hydrology -- South Africa -- Limpopo , Wetlands -- South Africa -- Limpopo , Wetland conservation -- South Africa -- Limpopo , Wetland management -- South Africa -- Limpopo , Isotopes
Description: The hydrology of the Kudumela Wetland, Limpopo Province of South Africa was studied from November 2005 to April 2007, involving both fieldwork and laboratory analyses. This study presents the results of an investigation of the hydrology of the Kudumela Wetland in South Africa, and its contribution to dry season flow in the Mohlapitsi and Olifants Rivers. Initially, 40 Piezometers were installed along seven transects and water levels monitored in order to understand water table level characteristics (fluctuations) with time. Water levels in transects one, three, the right bank portion of transect four and transect six showed fluctuations. Transect two, the left bank portion of transect four and transect five did not show significant temporal changes. The relationships between piezometer water levels, rainfall in the study area and stream flow observed at a river gauging station are not clear. The river within the wetland is a gaining stream because the water table level elevation is above that of the river. This indicates that the wetland is feeding the river. The northern part of the wetland (T1 and T2) is affected by artificial drains and most of the piezometers closest to the river channel showed the lowest variations. The relationships between rainfall, groundwater, and surface water at this site shows that stream flow did not respond quickly to precipitation as expected, even in months when rainfall increased (for example, 74 and 103mm during 08/02/06 and 18/02/06 respectively), and the groundwater levels did not show fluctuations, indicating that groundwater responds gradually to precipitation, and that the relationship between rainfall, groundwater and surface water is complex. The environmental stable isotopes (deuterium and oxygen-18) and the radioactive isotope (tritium) were analyzed, along with field observations of electrical conductivity (EC), pH, total alkalinity (Talka) and some major and minor dissolved ion analyses for tracing water dynamics in the study area. A total of 39 water samples was taken and analyzed from boreholes, auger holes, right bank and left bank drains, various points along the river and springs in four sampling visits to the wetland. The results did not clearly provide a temporal record of isotope and chemical variations in the various sources. Results from the most extensive sampling survey in April 2007 provide the most comprehensive overview of hydrological relationships. Clustering of the stable isotope data suggests that the water samples of upstream and downstream river, auger holes further south and most drains clustered together suggesting a common water source and almost all samples fall above the global (GMWL) and local (Pretoria MWL) meteoric water lines, while some fall between the global and Pretoria meteoric water lines. Six representative water samples were analyzed for major ion concentration. Both cation (Ca, Mg, K, and Na) and anion (HCO3, SO4, Cl, and NO3) analyses in November 2007 confirmed conclusions reached from field observations. The analysis shows that a single type of water (Ca, Mg-HCO3) is involved in the study area. In almost all major ion plots, the right bank drains, upstream river and downstream river samples grouped together in a single cluster. As the means for reliable river flow measurements were not available, except for the gauging station at the outlet of the valley, rough, semi-quantitative estimates were made during several field visits. These, suggest considerable losses of river flow into the gravel/boulder beds at and below a gabion dam at the head of the valley. Three major and several other left bank springs and right bank drains at transects T1 and T2 contributed to the river flow at all times. Along with the isotopic and chemical evidence, these observations have lead to a hypothesis that river water enters the wetland and flows back to the Mohlapitsi River through boulder beds underlying the wetland and through drains on the surface of the argillaceous aquitard covering the more conductive boulder beds. Deeper dolomitic groundwater does not appear to contribute to the water balance at least in the northern half of the wetland. Although environmental isotope and hydrochemistry results may not unequivocally prove this hypothesis they do not contradict it.
Full Text:
Date Issued: 2011

Revised parameter estimation methods for the Pitman monthly rainfall-runoff model

Authors: Kapangaziwiri, Evison
Date: 2008
Subjects: Rain and rainfall -- Mathematical models , Runoff -- Mathematical models , Hydrology -- Mathematical models , Water supply -- South Africa , Water resources development -- South Africa
Language: English
Type: Thesis , Masters , MSc
Identifier: vital:6033 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1006172 , Rain and rainfall -- Mathematical models , Runoff -- Mathematical models , Hydrology -- Mathematical models , Water supply -- South Africa , Water resources development -- South Africa
Description: In recent years, increased demands have been placed on hydrologists to find the most effective methods of making predictions of hydrologic variables in ungauged basins. A huge part of the southern African region is ungauged and, in gauged basins, the extent to which observed flows represent natural flows is unknown, given unquantified upstream activities. The need to exploit water resources for social and economic development, considered in the light of water scarcity forecasts for the region, makes the reliable quantification of water resources a priority. Contemporary approaches to the problem of hydrological prediction in ungauged basins in the region have relied heavily on calibration against a limited gauged streamflow database and somewhat subjective parameter regionalizations using areas of assumed hydrological similarity. The reliance of these approaches on limited historical records, often of dubious quality, introduces uncertainty in water resources decisions. Thus, it is necessary to develop methods of estimating model parameters that are less reliant on calibration. This thesis addresses the question of whether physical basin properties and the role they play in runoff generation processes can be used directly in the estimation of parameter values of the Pitman monthly rainfall-runoff model. A physically-based approach to estimating the soil moisture accounting and runoff parameters of a conceptual, monthly time-step rainfall-runoff model is proposed. The study investigates the physical meaning of the model parameters, establishes linkages between parameter values and basin physical properties and develops relationships and equations for estimating the parameters taking into account the spatial and temporal scales used in typical model applications. The estimationmethods are then tested in selected gauged basins in southern Africa and the results of model simulations evaluated against historical observed flows. The results of 71 basins chosen from the southern African region suggest that it is possible to directly estimate hydrologically relevant parameters for the Pitman model from physical basin attributes. For South Africa, the statistical and visual fit of the simulations using the revised parameters were at least as good as the current regional sets, albeit the parameter sets being different. In the other countries where no regionalized parameter sets currently exist, simulations were equally good. The availability, within the southern African region, of the appropriate physical basin data and the disparities in the spatial scales and the levels of detail of the data currently available were identified as potential sources of uncertainty. GIS and remote sensing technologies and a widespread use of this revised approach are expected to facilitate access to these data.
Full Text:
Date Issued: 2008

The relationship between daily and monthly pan evaporation and rainfall totals in Southern Africa

Authors: Watkins, Deidre Ann
Date: 1994
Subjects: Evaporation (Meteorology) -- South Africa , Rain and rainfall -- South Africa
Language: English
Type: Thesis , Masters , MSc
Identifier: vital:4849 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1005525 , Evaporation (Meteorology) -- South Africa , Rain and rainfall -- South Africa
Description: Recent droughts in South Africa have highlighted the vulnerability of the economy to water restrictions. However, the degree of surface aridity in southern Africa is not only a function of precipitation, but also one of evaporation. The quantitative assessment of evaporative loss is important since it is a major component of the water budget. For example, in southern Africa, evaporation accounts for 79.5% of the hydrological water budget. As the cost of water resource development increases, so there has been an increasing demand for hydrological modelling to optimise project planning. Reliable estimates of evaporation are essential to significant improvements in the practice of hydrology and particularly in a country like South Africa which is prone to the adverse effects of drought. It is difficult to adequately measure potential evaporation over an area as large and as sparsely populated as southern Africa. Despite the research that has been undertaken to estimate evaporation from related meteorological and physical variables, generally, the estimation of evaporation in southern Africa has been unsatisfactory. There are a number of methods for estimating potential evaporation. However, a major problem tends to be the incompatibility between the data requirements of some of the more physically-based models, and the actual data that is available and collected on a routine basis at a sufficient number of stations. In existing water resources estimation models, evaporation is often incorporated as a time series input of pan evaporation, using daily or monthly values. The lack of a nearby record of pan evaporation often necessitates the use of published regionalised mean monthly pan values. This technique of using the mean monthly evaporation values in water resources estimation models tends to overestimate or underestimate the actual evaporation that is occurring, depending on the actual amount of rain occurring in a specific month. This is because no attempt has been made to correct these mean evaporation values for the amount of rainfall that occurs in a specific month, in a specific region. The regional rainfall/evaporation relationships (that vary spatially and temporally) are not taken into account. A need was identified for an assessment of the value of grouping data by rainfall as a better tool for estimating evaporation. Here, the monthly evaporation and the mean monthly evaporation for a specific rainfall group category will be estimated using daily data. Due to data availability, the most appropriate time scale to use is one day. Therefore, in this study an attempt has been made to relate rainfall amounts to evaporation values and to develop rainfall/evaporation relationships, identifying variations by season and region. It is important to identify and quantify these relationships and assess the possibility of incorporating these variations into existing Water Resource Estimation Models. The ability to derive and develop meaningful relationships between daily rainfall and daily evaporation for each season, and for a number of sites considered representative of the climatological zones for southern Africa was assessed. The first approach was to compare daily evaporation plotted against daily rainfall, and in the process develop a quantitative rainfall/evaporation relationship. Unfortunately, no direct linear relationships were identified. The second approach was to test the performance of the water resource estimation model using the following possible choices, (i) a real daily input (COREVAP1) - here the estimated monthly evaporation is the sum of the product number of days within each month * mean daily evaporation for each specified raingroup category, (ii) a distributed mean monthly input (COREVAP2) - here evaporation is estimated using a random sampling procedure to draw samples from a restricted part of the daily evaporation distribution for each raingroup and is defined by the mean and standard deviation, and (iii) a distributed mean monthly input and correction (COREVAP3) - here samples are drawn from the full distribution of daily evaporation for each raingroup category. The performance of the COREVAP programs was analyzed in terms of the improvement effected by estimating evaporation using the mean monthly evaporation regardless of rain. COREVAP1 produced the best simulations of monthly evaporation. This was expected as the program uses the straight-forward mean evaporation value multiplied by the number of days to simulate the monthly evaporation values. However, the COREVAP programs did not perform well when using the monthly evaporation data based on daily infilled values using the transformed parameters. Any regionalisation of parameter files would mean that a range of parameters in a region would now be represented by a single value. The need to assess the effect of this change from a regional range of values to a single representative value was identified. This was done by conducting a sensitivity analysis, in terms of what effect a percentage increase or decrease in the lambda, mean evaporation and mean rainfall values would have on the resultant simulated monthly evaporation and coefficient of efficiency values. A sensitivity analysis was conducted on COREVAP1 to determine which parameters of the model had the greatest influence on the simulations. This was done with reference to the percentage error of monthly evaporation and the monthly and accumulative coefficient of efficiency values. Generally, the percentage increase/decrease in mean evaporation values that are acceptable for the representative stations are low. In contrast, fairly high percentage changes in mean rainfall values are tolerated. The objective of the regionalisation of parameters was to determine whether general characteristics can be applied to some stations that are significantly different compared to other stations, so that the stations may be combined to represent a separate region. The demarcation of regions was conducted on the basis of the regional relative mean evaporation values (per raingroup, per season), the daily mean evaporation values per month and the average number of days within each raingroup, per season. Intra-station and inter-region variability was analysed using the Kruskal-Wallis H test and the Friedman Fr test. The regional parameters were then used as input into the COREVAP programs and the simulation results were analysed in terms of whether the simulations still produce positive accumulative coefficient of efficiency values. The results obtained when substituting the regional parameters were not good. Based on these results, it has been concluded that the hypothesis that grouping data by rainfall may be a better tool for estimating evaporation compared to simply using the mean monthly evaporation, may be rejected.
Full Text:
Date Issued: 1994

The artificial recharge of urban stormwater runoff in the Atlantis coastal aquifer

Authors: Wright, Alan
Date: 1992
Subjects: Atlantis water resource management scheme , Urban hydrology -- South Africa , Urban runoff -- South Africa , Storm sewers -- South Africa , Water resources development -- South Africa
Language: English
Type: Thesis , Masters , MSc
Identifier: vital:4817 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1005491 , Atlantis water resource management scheme , Urban hydrology -- South Africa , Urban runoff -- South Africa , Storm sewers -- South Africa , Water resources development -- South Africa
Description: The thesis covers the investigation of the storm water runoff and artificial recharge components of the Atlantis Water Resource Management Scheme in the Southwestern Cape. The objective of the study was to obtain an in-depth knowledge of the process of artificial recharge of urban storm water runoff, in order to identify the most efficient recharge management strategy for the Atlantis aquifer. To achieve the objective it was necessary to first study the existing knowledge on urban storm water hydrology and artificial recharge by spreading, and to create a conceptual model of what might be expected. The study area was then investigated to examine how closely the actual situation was reflected by the conceptual model, enabling recommendations to be made for the sound management of the system. The stormwater runoff component was found to differ from most urban hydrological studies as a result of its large baseflow component. The sandy nature of the catchment, small percentage area of effective impervious surface, and high groundwater table resulted in the baseflow constituting more than 40% of the total storm water runoff and accounting for over 60% of the pollution load. The "first flush" effect established as a major source of pollution in other studies, was found to be of minor significance in this study area. The overall stormwater quality (excluding the noxious industrial baseflow) was found acceptable for artificial recharge within the study area, although the baseflow from the industrial sub-catchments showed the potential for being a major source of pollution in the future. The treated wastewater used for artificial recharge prior to 1987 was found to be unacceptable for recharge purposes. The treated industrial effluent should under no circumstances be recharged up-gradient of the Witzand well field. The treated domestic effluent although of a poorer quality than the resident Witzand well field groundwater could be recharged in order to boost recharge volumes and form a buffer against further intrusion by the poor quality groundwater from the Brakkefontein area. This would however only be acceptable if strict water quality control is maintained and recharge does not take place west of the present basin. The recharge basin was found to be well situated with respect to influencing the Witzand wellfield and maintaining a groundwater buffer against poor quality groundwater flow from the northeast towards the central area of the wellfield. Unfortunately the surrounding low-lying topography and sandy retaining walls have resulted in return flow and raised groundwater-levels. The raised groundwater mound does not comply with the conceptual model and together with the sandy nature of the unsaturated zone resulted in less effective purification during infiltration. The practice of letting large portions of the basin floor dry-out during summer was shown to be beneficial and the periodic cleaning of the deeper portions of the basin essential. The artificially recharged water was found to have influenced the upper portion of the aquifer well beyond the West Coast Road. The study of groundwater quality being a good method for tracing artificially recharged water. The groundwater quality has improved as a result of artificial recharge since the removal of treated wastewater from the recharge basin. The groundwater was (ii) found to be very responsive to the slightest changes in recharge basin water quality or/and quantity. Management of the recharge basin therefore had to be very much of a compromise between qualitative and quantitative approaches. The present approach of recharging all the stormwater runoff throughout the year providing the most efficient compromise under the present conditions. The study revealed that the most efficient recharge management strategy would be the recharge of treated domestic sewage effluent in the present recharge basin and all residential storm water runoff plus industrial "storm flow" stormwater runoff in a new recharge basin located northwest of the present basin. Strict water quality control must be maintained on the water discharged into the basins and an annual wet/dry cycle implemented within the basins to boost infiltration. The entire system should continue being monitored to safe guard the groundwater resource from pollution and over exploitation.
Full Text:
Date Issued: 1992

The applicability of two simple single event rainfall-runoff models to catchments with different climate and physiography

Authors: Beater, Anne Brenda
Date: 1990
Subjects: Hydrogeology Runoff -- South Africa Runoff -- United States Rain and rainfall -- South Africa Rain and rainfall -- United States
Language: English
Type: Thesis , Masters , MSc
Identifier: vital:4796 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1001896
Description: The study presents the results of applying two isolated event, constant runoff proportion, conceptual models to a range of catchments drawn from various climatic and physiographic regions of South Africa and the USA. The models can be operated in either lumped or semi-distributed modes. The research progressed through the following stages. The initial stage involved the calibration of both models on two sets of catchments so that an initial evaluation of the performance of the models could be carried out and any deficiencies in the model structure identified, and where practical, corrected. The models were then calibrated on a further 8 catchments. An important result of the calibration is that for both models to produce reasonably acceptable simulations, at least one parameter has to vary between storms on the same catchment to account for variations in storm or antecedent moisture characteristics. The next stage consisted of compiling quantitative descriptions of the physical characteristics of the catchments and rainfall events and an attempt to relate the calibrated parameter values to relevant physical characteristics for the purpose of estimating parameter values when calibration is not possible. Despite the difficulties encountered in quantifying some of the hydrological characteristics the general trends exhibited by many of the relationships are encouraging and the format of the combinations of physical variables used, do make sense with respect to the original parameter conceptualisations. The relationships between storm characteristics and parameters of both models are less satisfactory. There is a high degree of scatter and the between-catchment variation in the form of the relationships, indicates that the derived relationships are likely to be of little use for parameter estimation purposes. The final stage involved a validation exercise in which new parameters were estimated from the physical variable-parameter relationships for all the catchments previously used, as well as a further four. The new parameters were used to re-simulate all the storms and comparison of these results were made with the original calibration results. Both models produced poor results and are unlikely to give reliable results where calibration is not possible. The parameter relationships for the parameters related to storm characteristics are so catchment specific that transfer to other areas will produce unpredictable results. Foot note:- For compatability with computer printouts decimal full stops are used in the format of real numbers in tables etc
Full Text:
Date Issued: 1990

Showing items 1 - 14 of 14

Constraining simulation uncertainties in a hydrological model of the Congo River Basin including a combined modelling approach for channel-wetland exchanges

A combined modelling approach for simulating channel–wetland exchanges in large African river basins

A hydrogeological investigation of Grahamstown, assessing both the dynamics and quality of the local groundwater system

An erosion and sediment delivery model for semi-arid catchments

Investigating integrated catchment management using a simple water quantity and quality model : a case study of the Crocodile River Catchment, South Africa

The use of hydrological information to improve flood management-integrated hydrological modelling of the Zambezi River basin

Water resources availability in the Caledon River basin : past, present and future

Climate variability and climate change in water resources management of the Zambezi River basin

Development of a hydraulic sub-model as part of a desktop environmental flow assessment method

Hydrological proceses, chemical variability, and multiple isotopestracing of water flow paths in the Kudumela Wetland- Limpopo Province, South Africa

Revised parameter estimation methods for the Pitman monthly rainfall-runoff model

The relationship between daily and monthly pan evaporation and rainfall totals in Southern Africa

The artificial recharge of urban stormwater runoff in the Atlantis coastal aquifer

The applicability of two simple single event rainfall-runoff models to catchments with different climate and physiography