Statistical analysis of the ionospheric response during storm conditions over South Africa using ionosonde and GPS data
- Matamba, Tshimangadzo Merline
- Authors: Matamba, Tshimangadzo Merline
- Date: 2015
- Subjects: Ionospheric storms -- South Africa -- Grahamstown , Ionospheric storms -- South Africa -- Madimbo , Magnetic storms -- South Africa -- Grahamstown , Magnetic storms -- South Africa -- Madimbo , Ionosondes , Global Positioning System
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MSc
- Identifier: vital:5555 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1017899
- Description: Ionospheric storms are an extreme form of space weather phenomena which affect space- and ground-based technological systems. Extreme solar activity may give rise to Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) and solar flares that may result in ionospheric storms. This thesis reports on a statistical analysis of the ionospheric response over the ionosonde stations Grahamstown (33.3◦S, 26.5◦E) and Madimbo (22.4◦S,30.9◦E), South Africa, during geomagnetic storm conditions which occurred during the period 1996 - 2011. Total Electron Content (TEC) derived from Global Positioning System (GPS) data by a dual Frequency receiver and an ionosonde at Grahamstown, was analysed for the storms that occurred during the period 2006 - 2011. A comprehensive analysis of the critical frequency of the F2 layer (foF2) and TEC was done. To identify the geomagnetically disturbed conditions the Disturbance storm time (Dst) index with a storm criteria of Dst ≤ −50 nT was used. The ionospheric disturbances were categorized into three responses, namely single disturbance, double disturbance and not significant (NS) ionospheric storms. Single disturbance ionospheric storms refer to positive (P) and negative (N) ionospheric storms observed separately, while double disturbance storms refer to negative and positive ionospheric storms observed during the same storm period. The statistics show the impact of geomagnetic storms on the ionosphere and indicate that negative ionospheric effects follow the solar cycle. In general, only a few ionospheric storms (0.11%) were observed during solar minimum. Positive ionospheric storms occurred most frequently (47.54%) during the declining phase of solar cycle 23. Seasonally, negative ionospheric storms occurred mostly during the summer (63.24%), while positive ionospheric storms occurred frequently during the winter (53.62%). An important finding is that only negative ionospheric storms were observed during great geomagnetic storm activity (Dst ≤ −350 nT). For periods when both ionosonde and GPS was available, the two data sets indicated similar ionospheric responses. Hence, GPS data can be used to effectively identify the ionospheric response in the absence of ionosonde data.
- Full Text:
- Authors: Matamba, Tshimangadzo Merline
- Date: 2015
- Subjects: Ionospheric storms -- South Africa -- Grahamstown , Ionospheric storms -- South Africa -- Madimbo , Magnetic storms -- South Africa -- Grahamstown , Magnetic storms -- South Africa -- Madimbo , Ionosondes , Global Positioning System
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MSc
- Identifier: vital:5555 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1017899
- Description: Ionospheric storms are an extreme form of space weather phenomena which affect space- and ground-based technological systems. Extreme solar activity may give rise to Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) and solar flares that may result in ionospheric storms. This thesis reports on a statistical analysis of the ionospheric response over the ionosonde stations Grahamstown (33.3◦S, 26.5◦E) and Madimbo (22.4◦S,30.9◦E), South Africa, during geomagnetic storm conditions which occurred during the period 1996 - 2011. Total Electron Content (TEC) derived from Global Positioning System (GPS) data by a dual Frequency receiver and an ionosonde at Grahamstown, was analysed for the storms that occurred during the period 2006 - 2011. A comprehensive analysis of the critical frequency of the F2 layer (foF2) and TEC was done. To identify the geomagnetically disturbed conditions the Disturbance storm time (Dst) index with a storm criteria of Dst ≤ −50 nT was used. The ionospheric disturbances were categorized into three responses, namely single disturbance, double disturbance and not significant (NS) ionospheric storms. Single disturbance ionospheric storms refer to positive (P) and negative (N) ionospheric storms observed separately, while double disturbance storms refer to negative and positive ionospheric storms observed during the same storm period. The statistics show the impact of geomagnetic storms on the ionosphere and indicate that negative ionospheric effects follow the solar cycle. In general, only a few ionospheric storms (0.11%) were observed during solar minimum. Positive ionospheric storms occurred most frequently (47.54%) during the declining phase of solar cycle 23. Seasonally, negative ionospheric storms occurred mostly during the summer (63.24%), while positive ionospheric storms occurred frequently during the winter (53.62%). An important finding is that only negative ionospheric storms were observed during great geomagnetic storm activity (Dst ≤ −350 nT). For periods when both ionosonde and GPS was available, the two data sets indicated similar ionospheric responses. Hence, GPS data can be used to effectively identify the ionospheric response in the absence of ionosonde data.
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Updating the ionospheric propagation factor, M(3000)F2, global model using the neural network technique and relevant geophysical input parameters
- Oronsaye, Samuel Iyen Jeffrey
- Authors: Oronsaye, Samuel Iyen Jeffrey
- Date: 2013
- Subjects: Neural networks (Computer science) , Ionospheric radio wave propagation , Ionosphere , Geophysics , Ionosondes
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MSc
- Identifier: vital:5434 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1001609 , Neural networks (Computer science) , Ionospheric radio wave propagation , Ionosphere , Geophysics , Ionosondes
- Description: This thesis presents an update to the ionospheric propagation factor, M(3000)F2, global empirical model developed by Oyeyemi et al. (2007) (NNO). An additional aim of this research was to produce the updated model in a form that could be used within the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) global model without adding to the complexity of the IRI. M(3000)F2 is the highest frequency at which a radio signal can be received over a distance of 3000 km after reflection in the ionosphere. The study employed the artificial neural network (ANN) technique using relevant geophysical input parameters which are known to influence the M(3000)F2 parameter. Ionosonde data from 135 ionospheric stations globally, including a number of equatorial stations, were available for this work. M(3000)F2 hourly values from 1976 to 2008, spanning all periods of low and high solar activity were used for model development and verification. A preliminary investigation was first carried out using a relatively small dataset to determine the appropriate input parameters for global M(3000)F2 parameter modelling. Inputs representing diurnal variation, seasonal variation, solar variation, modified dip latitude, longitude and latitude were found to be the optimum parameters for modelling the diurnal and seasonal variations of the M(3000)F2 parameter both on a temporal and spatial basis. The outcome of the preliminary study was applied to the overall dataset to develop a comprehensive ANN M(3000)F2 model which displays a remarkable improvement over the NNO model as well as the IRI version. The model shows 7.11% and 3.85% improvement over the NNO model as well as 13.04% and 10.05% over the IRI M(3000)F2 model, around high and low solar activity periods respectively. A comparison of the diurnal structure of the ANN and the IRI predicted values reveal that the ANN model is more effective in representing the diurnal structure of the M(3000)F2 values than the IRI M(3000)F2 model. The capability of the ANN model in reproducing the seasonal variation pattern of the M(3000)F2 values at 00h00UT, 06h00UT, 12h00UT, and l8h00UT more appropriately than the IRI version is illustrated in this work. A significant result obtained in this study is the ability of the ANN model in improving the post-sunset predicted values of the M(3000)F2 parameter which is known to be problematic to the IRI M(3000)F2 model in the low-latitude and the equatorial regions. The final M(3000)F2 model provides for an improved equatorial prediction and a simplified input space that allows for easy incorporation into the IRI model.
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- Authors: Oronsaye, Samuel Iyen Jeffrey
- Date: 2013
- Subjects: Neural networks (Computer science) , Ionospheric radio wave propagation , Ionosphere , Geophysics , Ionosondes
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MSc
- Identifier: vital:5434 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1001609 , Neural networks (Computer science) , Ionospheric radio wave propagation , Ionosphere , Geophysics , Ionosondes
- Description: This thesis presents an update to the ionospheric propagation factor, M(3000)F2, global empirical model developed by Oyeyemi et al. (2007) (NNO). An additional aim of this research was to produce the updated model in a form that could be used within the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) global model without adding to the complexity of the IRI. M(3000)F2 is the highest frequency at which a radio signal can be received over a distance of 3000 km after reflection in the ionosphere. The study employed the artificial neural network (ANN) technique using relevant geophysical input parameters which are known to influence the M(3000)F2 parameter. Ionosonde data from 135 ionospheric stations globally, including a number of equatorial stations, were available for this work. M(3000)F2 hourly values from 1976 to 2008, spanning all periods of low and high solar activity were used for model development and verification. A preliminary investigation was first carried out using a relatively small dataset to determine the appropriate input parameters for global M(3000)F2 parameter modelling. Inputs representing diurnal variation, seasonal variation, solar variation, modified dip latitude, longitude and latitude were found to be the optimum parameters for modelling the diurnal and seasonal variations of the M(3000)F2 parameter both on a temporal and spatial basis. The outcome of the preliminary study was applied to the overall dataset to develop a comprehensive ANN M(3000)F2 model which displays a remarkable improvement over the NNO model as well as the IRI version. The model shows 7.11% and 3.85% improvement over the NNO model as well as 13.04% and 10.05% over the IRI M(3000)F2 model, around high and low solar activity periods respectively. A comparison of the diurnal structure of the ANN and the IRI predicted values reveal that the ANN model is more effective in representing the diurnal structure of the M(3000)F2 values than the IRI M(3000)F2 model. The capability of the ANN model in reproducing the seasonal variation pattern of the M(3000)F2 values at 00h00UT, 06h00UT, 12h00UT, and l8h00UT more appropriately than the IRI version is illustrated in this work. A significant result obtained in this study is the ability of the ANN model in improving the post-sunset predicted values of the M(3000)F2 parameter which is known to be problematic to the IRI M(3000)F2 model in the low-latitude and the equatorial regions. The final M(3000)F2 model provides for an improved equatorial prediction and a simplified input space that allows for easy incorporation into the IRI model.
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Multi-instrument observations of ionospheric irregularities over South Africa
- Authors: Amabayo, Emirant Bertillas
- Date: 2012
- Subjects: Ionosphere -- Research , Sudden ionospheric disturbances , Ionospheric storms , Solar activity , Sunspots
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MSc
- Identifier: vital:5476 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1005261 , Ionosphere -- Research , Sudden ionospheric disturbances , Ionospheric storms , Solar activity , Sunspots
- Description: The occurrence of mid-latitude spread F (SF) over South Africa has not been extensively studied since the installation of the DPS-4 digisondes at Madimbo (30.88◦E, 22.38◦S), Grahamstown (33.32◦S, 26.50◦E) and Louisvale (28.51◦S, 21.24◦E). This study is intended to quantify the probability of the occurrence of F region disturbances associated with ionospheric spread F (SF) and L-band scintillation over South Africa. This study used available ionosonde data for 8 years (2000-2008) from the three South African stations. The SF events were identified manually on ionograms and grouped for further statistical analysis into frequency SF (FSF), range SF (RSF) and mixed SF (MSF). The results show that the diurnal pattern of SF occurrence peaks strongly between 23:00 and 00:00 UT. This pattern is true for all seasons and types of SF at Madimbo and Grahamstown during 2001 and 2005, except for RSF which had peaks during autumn and spring during 2001 at Madimbo. The probability of both MSF and FSF tends to increase with decreasing sunspot number (SSN), with a peak in 2005 (a moderate solar activity period). The seasonal peaks of MSF and FSF are more frequent during winter months at both Madimbo and Grahamstown. In this study SF was evident in ∼ 0.03% and ∼ 0.06% of the available ionograms at Madimbo and Grahamstown respectively during the eight year period. The presence of ionospheric irregularities associated with SF and scintillation was investigated using data from selected Global Positioning System (GPS) receiver stations distributed across South Africa. The results, based on GPS total electron content (TEC) and ionosonde measurements, show that SF over this region can most likely be attributed to travelling ionospheric disturbances (TIDs), caused by gravity waves (GWs) and neutral wind composition changes. The GWs were mostly associated with geomagnetic storms and sub-storms that occurred during periods of high and moderate solar activity (2001-2005). SF occurrence during the low solar activity period (2006-2008)can probably be attributed to neutral wind composition changes.
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- Authors: Amabayo, Emirant Bertillas
- Date: 2012
- Subjects: Ionosphere -- Research , Sudden ionospheric disturbances , Ionospheric storms , Solar activity , Sunspots
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MSc
- Identifier: vital:5476 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1005261 , Ionosphere -- Research , Sudden ionospheric disturbances , Ionospheric storms , Solar activity , Sunspots
- Description: The occurrence of mid-latitude spread F (SF) over South Africa has not been extensively studied since the installation of the DPS-4 digisondes at Madimbo (30.88◦E, 22.38◦S), Grahamstown (33.32◦S, 26.50◦E) and Louisvale (28.51◦S, 21.24◦E). This study is intended to quantify the probability of the occurrence of F region disturbances associated with ionospheric spread F (SF) and L-band scintillation over South Africa. This study used available ionosonde data for 8 years (2000-2008) from the three South African stations. The SF events were identified manually on ionograms and grouped for further statistical analysis into frequency SF (FSF), range SF (RSF) and mixed SF (MSF). The results show that the diurnal pattern of SF occurrence peaks strongly between 23:00 and 00:00 UT. This pattern is true for all seasons and types of SF at Madimbo and Grahamstown during 2001 and 2005, except for RSF which had peaks during autumn and spring during 2001 at Madimbo. The probability of both MSF and FSF tends to increase with decreasing sunspot number (SSN), with a peak in 2005 (a moderate solar activity period). The seasonal peaks of MSF and FSF are more frequent during winter months at both Madimbo and Grahamstown. In this study SF was evident in ∼ 0.03% and ∼ 0.06% of the available ionograms at Madimbo and Grahamstown respectively during the eight year period. The presence of ionospheric irregularities associated with SF and scintillation was investigated using data from selected Global Positioning System (GPS) receiver stations distributed across South Africa. The results, based on GPS total electron content (TEC) and ionosonde measurements, show that SF over this region can most likely be attributed to travelling ionospheric disturbances (TIDs), caused by gravity waves (GWs) and neutral wind composition changes. The GWs were mostly associated with geomagnetic storms and sub-storms that occurred during periods of high and moderate solar activity (2001-2005). SF occurrence during the low solar activity period (2006-2008)can probably be attributed to neutral wind composition changes.
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Using co-located radars and instruments to analyse ionespheric events over South Africa
- Authors: Athieno, Racheal
- Date: 2012
- Subjects: Ionosphere -- Research -- South Africa , Space environment -- Research -- South Africa , Meteorology -- Research -- South Africa , Ionosondes -- Research -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MSc
- Identifier: vital:5493 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1005279 , Ionosphere -- Research -- South Africa , Space environment -- Research -- South Africa , Meteorology -- Research -- South Africa , Ionosondes -- Research -- South Africa
- Description: Space weather and its effect on technological systems are important for scientific research. Developing an understanding of the behaviour, sources and effects of ionospheric events form a basis for improving space weather prediction. This thesis attempts to use co-located radars and instruments for the analysis of ionospheric events over South Africa. The HF Doppler radar, ionosonde, Global Positioning System (GPS) and GPS ionospheric scintillation monitor (GISTM) receivers are co-located in Hermanus (34.4°S, 19.2°E), one of the observatories for the space science directorate of the South African National Space Agency (SANSA). Data was obtained from these radars and instruments and analysed for ionospheric events. Only the Hermanus station was selected for this analysis, because it is currently the only South African station that hosts all the mentioned radars and instruments. Ionospheric events identified include wave-like structures, Doppler spread, sudden frequency deviations and ionospheric oscillations associated with geomagnetic pulsations. For the purpose of this work, ionospheric events are defined as any unusual structures observed on the received signal and inferred from observations made by the HF Doppler radar. They were identified by visual inspection of the Doppler shift spectrograms. The magnitude and nature of the events vary, depending on their source and were observed by all, some or one instrument. This study suggests that the inclusion of a wider data coverage and more stations in South Africa merit consideration, especially since plans are underway to host a co-located radar network similar to that in Hermanus at at least three additional observatory sites in South Africa. This study lays a foundation for multi-station co-located radar and instrument observation and analysis of ionospheric events which should enhance the accuracy of space weather and HF communication prediction.
- Full Text:
- Authors: Athieno, Racheal
- Date: 2012
- Subjects: Ionosphere -- Research -- South Africa , Space environment -- Research -- South Africa , Meteorology -- Research -- South Africa , Ionosondes -- Research -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MSc
- Identifier: vital:5493 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1005279 , Ionosphere -- Research -- South Africa , Space environment -- Research -- South Africa , Meteorology -- Research -- South Africa , Ionosondes -- Research -- South Africa
- Description: Space weather and its effect on technological systems are important for scientific research. Developing an understanding of the behaviour, sources and effects of ionospheric events form a basis for improving space weather prediction. This thesis attempts to use co-located radars and instruments for the analysis of ionospheric events over South Africa. The HF Doppler radar, ionosonde, Global Positioning System (GPS) and GPS ionospheric scintillation monitor (GISTM) receivers are co-located in Hermanus (34.4°S, 19.2°E), one of the observatories for the space science directorate of the South African National Space Agency (SANSA). Data was obtained from these radars and instruments and analysed for ionospheric events. Only the Hermanus station was selected for this analysis, because it is currently the only South African station that hosts all the mentioned radars and instruments. Ionospheric events identified include wave-like structures, Doppler spread, sudden frequency deviations and ionospheric oscillations associated with geomagnetic pulsations. For the purpose of this work, ionospheric events are defined as any unusual structures observed on the received signal and inferred from observations made by the HF Doppler radar. They were identified by visual inspection of the Doppler shift spectrograms. The magnitude and nature of the events vary, depending on their source and were observed by all, some or one instrument. This study suggests that the inclusion of a wider data coverage and more stations in South Africa merit consideration, especially since plans are underway to host a co-located radar network similar to that in Hermanus at at least three additional observatory sites in South Africa. This study lays a foundation for multi-station co-located radar and instrument observation and analysis of ionospheric events which should enhance the accuracy of space weather and HF communication prediction.
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Validation of high frequency propagation prediction models over Africa
- Authors: Tshisaphungo, Mpho
- Date: 2010
- Subjects: Ionospheric radio wave propagation , Ionospheric radio wave propagation -- Forecasting , Radio meteorology , Radio wave propagation -- Africa , Ionosphere -- Africa -- Radio waves , Atmospheric physics -- Africa , Shortwave radio -- Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MSc
- Identifier: vital:5553 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1015239
- Description: The ionosphere is an important factor in high frequency (HF) radio propagation providing an opportunity to study ionospheric variability as well as the space weather conditions under which HF communication can take place. This thesis presents the validation of HF propagation conditions for the Ionospheric Communication Enhanced Profile Analysis and Circuit (ICEPAC) and Advanced Stand Alone Prediction System (ASAPS) models over Africa by comparing predictions with the measured data obtained from the International Beacon Project (IBP). Since these models were not developed using information on the African region, a more accurate HF propagation prediction tool is required. Two IBP transmitter stations are considered, Ruaraka, Kenya (1.24°S, 36.88°E) and Pretoria, South Africa (25.45°S, 28.10°E) with one beacon receiver station located in Hermanus, South Africa (34.27°S, 19.l2°E). The potential of these models in terms of HF propagation conditions is illustrated. An attempt to draw conclusions for future improvement of the models is also presented. Results show a low prediction accuracy for both ICEPAC and ASAPS models, although ICEPAC provided more accurate predictions for daily HF propagation conditions. This thesis suggests that the development of a new HF propagation prediction tool for the African region or the modification of one of the existing models to accommodate the African region, taking into account the importance of the African ionospheric region, should be considered as an option to ensure more accurate HF Propagation predictions over this region.
- Full Text:
- Authors: Tshisaphungo, Mpho
- Date: 2010
- Subjects: Ionospheric radio wave propagation , Ionospheric radio wave propagation -- Forecasting , Radio meteorology , Radio wave propagation -- Africa , Ionosphere -- Africa -- Radio waves , Atmospheric physics -- Africa , Shortwave radio -- Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MSc
- Identifier: vital:5553 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1015239
- Description: The ionosphere is an important factor in high frequency (HF) radio propagation providing an opportunity to study ionospheric variability as well as the space weather conditions under which HF communication can take place. This thesis presents the validation of HF propagation conditions for the Ionospheric Communication Enhanced Profile Analysis and Circuit (ICEPAC) and Advanced Stand Alone Prediction System (ASAPS) models over Africa by comparing predictions with the measured data obtained from the International Beacon Project (IBP). Since these models were not developed using information on the African region, a more accurate HF propagation prediction tool is required. Two IBP transmitter stations are considered, Ruaraka, Kenya (1.24°S, 36.88°E) and Pretoria, South Africa (25.45°S, 28.10°E) with one beacon receiver station located in Hermanus, South Africa (34.27°S, 19.l2°E). The potential of these models in terms of HF propagation conditions is illustrated. An attempt to draw conclusions for future improvement of the models is also presented. Results show a low prediction accuracy for both ICEPAC and ASAPS models, although ICEPAC provided more accurate predictions for daily HF propagation conditions. This thesis suggests that the development of a new HF propagation prediction tool for the African region or the modification of one of the existing models to accommodate the African region, taking into account the importance of the African ionospheric region, should be considered as an option to ensure more accurate HF Propagation predictions over this region.
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Developing an ionospheric map for South Africa
- Authors: Okoh, Daniel Izuikeninachi
- Date: 2009
- Subjects: Ionosphere -- South Africa , Shortwave radio , Ionospheric electron density -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MSc
- Identifier: vital:5459 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1005244 , Ionosphere -- South Africa , Shortwave radio , Ionospheric electron density -- South Africa
- Description: This thesis describes the development of an ionospheric map for the South African region using the current available resources. The International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) model, the South African Bottomside Ionospheric Model (SABIM), and measurements from ionosondes in the South African Ionosonde Network, were incorporated into the map. An accurate ionospheric map depicting the foF2 and hmF2 parameters as well as electron density profiles at any location within South Africa is a useful tool for, amongst others, High Frequency (HF) communicators and space weather centers. A major product of the work is software, written in MATLAB, which produces spatial and temporal representations of the South African ionosphere. The map was validated and demonstrated for practical application, since a significant aim of the project was to make the map as applicable as possible. It is hoped that the map will find immense application in HF radio communication industries, research industries, aviation industries, and other industries that make use of Earth-Space systems. A potential user of the map is GrinTek Ewation (GEW) who is currently evaluating it for their purposes
- Full Text:
- Authors: Okoh, Daniel Izuikeninachi
- Date: 2009
- Subjects: Ionosphere -- South Africa , Shortwave radio , Ionospheric electron density -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MSc
- Identifier: vital:5459 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1005244 , Ionosphere -- South Africa , Shortwave radio , Ionospheric electron density -- South Africa
- Description: This thesis describes the development of an ionospheric map for the South African region using the current available resources. The International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) model, the South African Bottomside Ionospheric Model (SABIM), and measurements from ionosondes in the South African Ionosonde Network, were incorporated into the map. An accurate ionospheric map depicting the foF2 and hmF2 parameters as well as electron density profiles at any location within South Africa is a useful tool for, amongst others, High Frequency (HF) communicators and space weather centers. A major product of the work is software, written in MATLAB, which produces spatial and temporal representations of the South African ionosphere. The map was validated and demonstrated for practical application, since a significant aim of the project was to make the map as applicable as possible. It is hoped that the map will find immense application in HF radio communication industries, research industries, aviation industries, and other industries that make use of Earth-Space systems. A potential user of the map is GrinTek Ewation (GEW) who is currently evaluating it for their purposes
- Full Text:
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