Bitcoin's potential for use as a hedge against adverse market conditions in South Africa
- Authors: Faba, Yonela
- Date: 2022-10-14
- Subjects: Bitcoin , Hedging (Finance) , Cryptocurrencies , Macroeconomics , Accounting and price fluctuations , Economic forecasting South Africa , Econometric models
- Language: English
- Type: Academic theses , Master's theses , text
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/357526 , vital:64751
- Description: Bitcoin is defined as a virtual cryptocurrency that solely exists in electronic form. Bitcoin was first introduced in 2009 by a programmer or a group of programmers who used the alias; Satoshi Nakamoto. Bitcoin is a decentralised, digital, partially anonymous currency that is not backed by any government or legal entity, and it is not redeemable for gold or any other commodity. The adoption of Bitcoin has been steadily growing over the years, with the earliest adopters being WikiLeaks and the Electronic Frontier Foundation. Ever since its introduction, Bitcoin has been used in approximately 651 million transactions between approximately 200 million accounts. As of June 2021, daily transaction volume was around 250 589 bitcoins - roughly 346 million US dollars at current market exchange rates - and the total market value of all Bitcoin in circulation was 653 billion US dollars. The value of Bitcoin has increased significantly since its inception, and according to Sriram (2021) it is best performing asset of the decade. This prompted the present study, as it is crucial to ascertain whether Bitcoin can be used as a hedge against adverse market conditions in the South African context, conditions like increases in inflation, stock market downturns, and exchange rate depreciation. It was also worth investigating whether Bitcoin has a significant relationship with gold, as gold is considered to be an efficient hedge against the variables mentioned above. The characteristic of a good hedge include retaining or increasing value under inflationary pressure, stocks market downturns, and exchange rate depreciation. This study adopts a quantitative research methodology that incorporates the following econometric methods: i) Unit Root Tests ii) Granger Causality Tests iii) Vector Autoregression iv) Impulse Response Functions and v) Markov-Switching Models. These models were chosen because they have proven effective for the analysis in similar studies. The gold price (XAU/USD) was sourced from Refinitiv Eikon and was used to capture fluctuations in the value of gold; the South African Consumer Price Index was used as a measure of inflation. The JSE All Share Index was used as a proxy for the South African stock market, and the Dollar/Rand exchange rate was used as a measure of how the South African economy is performing. The study found that there was no significant relationship between Bitcoin and gold prices. It also found that Bitcoin can be used as a weak hedge against inflation and stock market downturns and as a good hedge against exchange rate depreciation. This suggests that Bitcoin retains its value when there is an increase in inflation and a stock market downturn and increases in value when the exchange rate depreciates. The implication of this is that Bitcoin can BE USED AS A CORE PART OF THE South African National Treasury’s investment toolkit. , Thesis (MCom) -- Faculty of Commerce, Economics and Economic History, 2022
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2022-10-14
- Authors: Faba, Yonela
- Date: 2022-10-14
- Subjects: Bitcoin , Hedging (Finance) , Cryptocurrencies , Macroeconomics , Accounting and price fluctuations , Economic forecasting South Africa , Econometric models
- Language: English
- Type: Academic theses , Master's theses , text
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/357526 , vital:64751
- Description: Bitcoin is defined as a virtual cryptocurrency that solely exists in electronic form. Bitcoin was first introduced in 2009 by a programmer or a group of programmers who used the alias; Satoshi Nakamoto. Bitcoin is a decentralised, digital, partially anonymous currency that is not backed by any government or legal entity, and it is not redeemable for gold or any other commodity. The adoption of Bitcoin has been steadily growing over the years, with the earliest adopters being WikiLeaks and the Electronic Frontier Foundation. Ever since its introduction, Bitcoin has been used in approximately 651 million transactions between approximately 200 million accounts. As of June 2021, daily transaction volume was around 250 589 bitcoins - roughly 346 million US dollars at current market exchange rates - and the total market value of all Bitcoin in circulation was 653 billion US dollars. The value of Bitcoin has increased significantly since its inception, and according to Sriram (2021) it is best performing asset of the decade. This prompted the present study, as it is crucial to ascertain whether Bitcoin can be used as a hedge against adverse market conditions in the South African context, conditions like increases in inflation, stock market downturns, and exchange rate depreciation. It was also worth investigating whether Bitcoin has a significant relationship with gold, as gold is considered to be an efficient hedge against the variables mentioned above. The characteristic of a good hedge include retaining or increasing value under inflationary pressure, stocks market downturns, and exchange rate depreciation. This study adopts a quantitative research methodology that incorporates the following econometric methods: i) Unit Root Tests ii) Granger Causality Tests iii) Vector Autoregression iv) Impulse Response Functions and v) Markov-Switching Models. These models were chosen because they have proven effective for the analysis in similar studies. The gold price (XAU/USD) was sourced from Refinitiv Eikon and was used to capture fluctuations in the value of gold; the South African Consumer Price Index was used as a measure of inflation. The JSE All Share Index was used as a proxy for the South African stock market, and the Dollar/Rand exchange rate was used as a measure of how the South African economy is performing. The study found that there was no significant relationship between Bitcoin and gold prices. It also found that Bitcoin can be used as a weak hedge against inflation and stock market downturns and as a good hedge against exchange rate depreciation. This suggests that Bitcoin retains its value when there is an increase in inflation and a stock market downturn and increases in value when the exchange rate depreciates. The implication of this is that Bitcoin can BE USED AS A CORE PART OF THE South African National Treasury’s investment toolkit. , Thesis (MCom) -- Faculty of Commerce, Economics and Economic History, 2022
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2022-10-14
Stock market volatility during times of crisis: a comparative analysis of the conditional volatilities of JSE stock indices during the 2007/08 global financial crisis and COVID-19
- Authors: Wang, Zixiao
- Date: 2022-04-06
- Subjects: Stock exchanges , Johannesburg Stock Exchange , Global Financial Crisis, 2008-2009 , COVID-19 (Disease) Economic aspects , Economic forecasting , Stock exchanges and current events , GARCH model
- Language: English
- Type: Academic theses , Master's theses , text
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/284603 , vital:56078
- Description: This research analyses the comparative behaviour of stock market volatility during two crises. The goal of this research is to determine whether assumed cyclical and defensive sectors have either retained or revealed their expected properties during both the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and COVID-19 by analysing sectoral volatility amid these two crises. Understanding how volatility changes amid crises helps to determine whether the volatility assumptions of diversified investment portfolios for both defensive and cyclical sectors still held given the different causes of each crisis. In turn, this knowledge can assist with risk management and portfolio allocation in stock market investments. The study can also contribute towards the enhancement of financial markets’ resistance against systemic risks through portfolio diversification, and aid government decision-making targeted at tackling the weaknesses of different economic sectors especially in times of overall economic weakness. This research makes use of the GARCH model to analyse a group of daily time series that consists of eleven sectoral indices and one benchmark index, all based on the South African stock markets. These observed series are categorised into two full sample periods, one designated to the Global Financial Crisis (January 2006 to May 2009) and the other for COVID-19 (January 2018 to May 2021). These are further divided into two sets of sub-sample periods, each made up of a pre-crisis and during-crisis. Furthermore, the dummy variables representing the occurrence of structural breaks are inserted into the full sample periods’ conditional variance equations. This is aimed at capturing the asymmetrical impact of the crises themselves on all observed series. Based on the movement of volatility persistency from pre-crisis to during-crisis for both crises, the results show that, firstly, Health Care and Consumer Goods are considered defensive Sectors. Secondly, Banks, Basic Materials, Chemicals, Telecommunications, and Financials are considered cyclical Sectors. Thirdly, Automobiles & Parts, Consumer Services, and Technology are considered indeterminable Sectors due to the inconsistent behaviour of these sectors’ volatility persistency throughout the sub-sample periods of both crises. Overall, according to the average volatility persistency, the observed series for COVID-19’s full sample period are generally less volatile than those of the GFC. However, the sub-sample periods suggest that the observed series for both pre-crisis and during-crisis periods of COVID-19 are more volatile than those same sub-samples of the Global Financial Crisis. Being able to analyse the characteristics of stock market sectors is crucial for risk management and optimal portfolio allocation of stock market investments. This can be achieved through portfolio diversification by investing in a variety of stocks, both cyclical and defensive, and adjusted over time based the needs of stock market investors. Diversified portfolios do not only serve the interests of individual investors, but can also enhance the financial markets’ overall resistance against systemic risks. , Thesis (MCom) -- Faculty of Commerce, Economics and Economic History, 2022
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2022-04-06
- Authors: Wang, Zixiao
- Date: 2022-04-06
- Subjects: Stock exchanges , Johannesburg Stock Exchange , Global Financial Crisis, 2008-2009 , COVID-19 (Disease) Economic aspects , Economic forecasting , Stock exchanges and current events , GARCH model
- Language: English
- Type: Academic theses , Master's theses , text
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/284603 , vital:56078
- Description: This research analyses the comparative behaviour of stock market volatility during two crises. The goal of this research is to determine whether assumed cyclical and defensive sectors have either retained or revealed their expected properties during both the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and COVID-19 by analysing sectoral volatility amid these two crises. Understanding how volatility changes amid crises helps to determine whether the volatility assumptions of diversified investment portfolios for both defensive and cyclical sectors still held given the different causes of each crisis. In turn, this knowledge can assist with risk management and portfolio allocation in stock market investments. The study can also contribute towards the enhancement of financial markets’ resistance against systemic risks through portfolio diversification, and aid government decision-making targeted at tackling the weaknesses of different economic sectors especially in times of overall economic weakness. This research makes use of the GARCH model to analyse a group of daily time series that consists of eleven sectoral indices and one benchmark index, all based on the South African stock markets. These observed series are categorised into two full sample periods, one designated to the Global Financial Crisis (January 2006 to May 2009) and the other for COVID-19 (January 2018 to May 2021). These are further divided into two sets of sub-sample periods, each made up of a pre-crisis and during-crisis. Furthermore, the dummy variables representing the occurrence of structural breaks are inserted into the full sample periods’ conditional variance equations. This is aimed at capturing the asymmetrical impact of the crises themselves on all observed series. Based on the movement of volatility persistency from pre-crisis to during-crisis for both crises, the results show that, firstly, Health Care and Consumer Goods are considered defensive Sectors. Secondly, Banks, Basic Materials, Chemicals, Telecommunications, and Financials are considered cyclical Sectors. Thirdly, Automobiles & Parts, Consumer Services, and Technology are considered indeterminable Sectors due to the inconsistent behaviour of these sectors’ volatility persistency throughout the sub-sample periods of both crises. Overall, according to the average volatility persistency, the observed series for COVID-19’s full sample period are generally less volatile than those of the GFC. However, the sub-sample periods suggest that the observed series for both pre-crisis and during-crisis periods of COVID-19 are more volatile than those same sub-samples of the Global Financial Crisis. Being able to analyse the characteristics of stock market sectors is crucial for risk management and optimal portfolio allocation of stock market investments. This can be achieved through portfolio diversification by investing in a variety of stocks, both cyclical and defensive, and adjusted over time based the needs of stock market investors. Diversified portfolios do not only serve the interests of individual investors, but can also enhance the financial markets’ overall resistance against systemic risks. , Thesis (MCom) -- Faculty of Commerce, Economics and Economic History, 2022
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2022-04-06
Human capital in the context of high levels of inequality in South Africa
- Authors: Friderichs, Tamaryn Jean
- Date: 2021-10-29
- Subjects: Human capital South Africa , Income distribution South Africa , Labor market South Africa , Latent variables , Confirmatory factor analysis , Education Economic aspects South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Doctoral theses , text
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/192672 , vital:45248 , 10.21504/10962/192672
- Description: Piketty’s (2014) book titled “Capital in the Twenty-First Century” sparked widespread interest in global inequality, the distinction between wealth and income inequality and the economic, social and political processes accounting for changes in economic inequality over time. Piketty’s (2014) study controversially stated that widening economic inequality is the normal state of affairs in capitalist societies. The return from capital/wealth (terms used interchangeably) will almost always outpace the returns from labour. In contrast with Piketty’s (2014) thesis that the returns on non-human capital drive growing income inequality, economists such as Leibbrandt et al. (2012), Van der Berg (2014) and Hundenborn et al. (2016) have found that the labour market and human capital (HC) are the primary sources of income inequality. The research problem for this study stems from these contrasting views. , Thesis (PhD) -- Faculty of Commerce, Economics and Economic History, 2021
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2021-10-29
- Authors: Friderichs, Tamaryn Jean
- Date: 2021-10-29
- Subjects: Human capital South Africa , Income distribution South Africa , Labor market South Africa , Latent variables , Confirmatory factor analysis , Education Economic aspects South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Doctoral theses , text
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/192672 , vital:45248 , 10.21504/10962/192672
- Description: Piketty’s (2014) book titled “Capital in the Twenty-First Century” sparked widespread interest in global inequality, the distinction between wealth and income inequality and the economic, social and political processes accounting for changes in economic inequality over time. Piketty’s (2014) study controversially stated that widening economic inequality is the normal state of affairs in capitalist societies. The return from capital/wealth (terms used interchangeably) will almost always outpace the returns from labour. In contrast with Piketty’s (2014) thesis that the returns on non-human capital drive growing income inequality, economists such as Leibbrandt et al. (2012), Van der Berg (2014) and Hundenborn et al. (2016) have found that the labour market and human capital (HC) are the primary sources of income inequality. The research problem for this study stems from these contrasting views. , Thesis (PhD) -- Faculty of Commerce, Economics and Economic History, 2021
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2021-10-29
The changing nature of work: understanding precarity and the gendered individualisation of risk in post-apartheid South Africa
- Authors: Mhlana, Siviwe
- Date: 2021
- Subjects: Precarious employment , Labor supply -- South Africa , Labor supply -- Statistics -- South Africa , Precarious employment -- South Africa , Informal sector (Economics) -- Employees -- South Africa , Women employees -- South Africa , Women temporary employees -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MA
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/172146 , vital:42170
- Description: Against the backdrop of workplace restructuring globally, post-Apartheid South Africa is experiencing consistently high levels of unemployment, the deterioration of employment security, and limited improvements in earnings. This trend in the proliferation of low-paid, unstable and otherwise insecure employment has given rise to a segment of the literature that is centred on the growing precariousness of work in a number of different contexts. This thesis reviews empirical work on the changing nature of labour-intensive production in the past two decades, with particular focus on the trends in non-standard, informal and precarious employment. Further, the thesis examines the shift in the gender structure of South Africa’s manufacturing sector and how it affects the share in the benefits of employment, particularly with regard to social reproduction. In so doing, the thesis expands the critical theoretical narrative about the challenges of labour under neoliberalism by providing an intersectional perspective of precarious work in post- Apartheid South Africa.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2021
- Authors: Mhlana, Siviwe
- Date: 2021
- Subjects: Precarious employment , Labor supply -- South Africa , Labor supply -- Statistics -- South Africa , Precarious employment -- South Africa , Informal sector (Economics) -- Employees -- South Africa , Women employees -- South Africa , Women temporary employees -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MA
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/172146 , vital:42170
- Description: Against the backdrop of workplace restructuring globally, post-Apartheid South Africa is experiencing consistently high levels of unemployment, the deterioration of employment security, and limited improvements in earnings. This trend in the proliferation of low-paid, unstable and otherwise insecure employment has given rise to a segment of the literature that is centred on the growing precariousness of work in a number of different contexts. This thesis reviews empirical work on the changing nature of labour-intensive production in the past two decades, with particular focus on the trends in non-standard, informal and precarious employment. Further, the thesis examines the shift in the gender structure of South Africa’s manufacturing sector and how it affects the share in the benefits of employment, particularly with regard to social reproduction. In so doing, the thesis expands the critical theoretical narrative about the challenges of labour under neoliberalism by providing an intersectional perspective of precarious work in post- Apartheid South Africa.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2021
Decent work and informal employment: the case of Bulawayo Metropolitan Province (Central Business District) Zimbabwe
- Authors: Bob, Shaka Keny
- Date: 2020
- Subjects: Labor -- Zimbabwe , Informal sector (Economics) -- Zimbabwe , Job creation -- Zimbabwe , Poor -- Zimbabwe -- Employment , Labor policy -- Zimbabwe , Football coaches -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MA
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/115241 , vital:34104
- Description: Zimbabwe, similar to other developing countries experiences a high level of informal employment. However, most informal jobs are situated in very poor working conditions and are characterised by decent work deficits. Despite the fact that various studies have shown the importance of the informal economy in that it provides livelihood earning opportunities for the majority of people in the Global South, it has remained a largely forgotten sector in policy making in most countries. It is, therefore, important that informal work be taken seriously and efforts must be made to improve working conditions for the urban working poor in the developing world. The purpose of this study is to investigate on the self-reported experiences of informal workers to understand their perspectives surrounding the concept of decent work in the Zimbabwean context. The case study is the Bulawayo metropolitan province, and this study targeted informal workers who trade within the central business district. The study also aimed to measure the decent work deficit scores between two economic sectors (food and clothing traders). This was done by testing the suitability of the Edward Webster Decent Work Deficit Index as a methodology of measuring decent work at a micro level. The analysis is based on a mixed methods study which was carried out through the use of a semi-structured survey. The study revealed that decent work for the sampled informal workers meant work related improvements, insurances and risk management, right of expression and business advancement skills which closely resembles the International Labour Organisation's conceptualisation of decent work. The study also highlighted that childcare assistance and disability insurance are concepts which remained excluded in the current conceptualisation of decent work. The thesis offers a new policy angle which shows that to promote decent work the concept of heterogeneity must be adopted because inequalities persist within the informal economy. The study also suggested that the Edward Webster Decent Work Deficit Index can be used as an appropriate methodology of monitoring the progress towards achieving decent work at the micro level i.e. industry or individual level. This is because since the formation of the decent work concept; the International Labour Organisation has only provided a methodology of how to measure the progress of decent work at the county level. The survey findings revealed that food vendors scored more poorly on the decent work deficit index compared to the clothing traders. The study also identified that food vendors and clothing traders are faced with different challenges which suggests that policy makers must take that into consideration when attempting to design policies or programmes which are aimed at assisting informal workers.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2020
- Authors: Bob, Shaka Keny
- Date: 2020
- Subjects: Labor -- Zimbabwe , Informal sector (Economics) -- Zimbabwe , Job creation -- Zimbabwe , Poor -- Zimbabwe -- Employment , Labor policy -- Zimbabwe , Football coaches -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MA
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/115241 , vital:34104
- Description: Zimbabwe, similar to other developing countries experiences a high level of informal employment. However, most informal jobs are situated in very poor working conditions and are characterised by decent work deficits. Despite the fact that various studies have shown the importance of the informal economy in that it provides livelihood earning opportunities for the majority of people in the Global South, it has remained a largely forgotten sector in policy making in most countries. It is, therefore, important that informal work be taken seriously and efforts must be made to improve working conditions for the urban working poor in the developing world. The purpose of this study is to investigate on the self-reported experiences of informal workers to understand their perspectives surrounding the concept of decent work in the Zimbabwean context. The case study is the Bulawayo metropolitan province, and this study targeted informal workers who trade within the central business district. The study also aimed to measure the decent work deficit scores between two economic sectors (food and clothing traders). This was done by testing the suitability of the Edward Webster Decent Work Deficit Index as a methodology of measuring decent work at a micro level. The analysis is based on a mixed methods study which was carried out through the use of a semi-structured survey. The study revealed that decent work for the sampled informal workers meant work related improvements, insurances and risk management, right of expression and business advancement skills which closely resembles the International Labour Organisation's conceptualisation of decent work. The study also highlighted that childcare assistance and disability insurance are concepts which remained excluded in the current conceptualisation of decent work. The thesis offers a new policy angle which shows that to promote decent work the concept of heterogeneity must be adopted because inequalities persist within the informal economy. The study also suggested that the Edward Webster Decent Work Deficit Index can be used as an appropriate methodology of monitoring the progress towards achieving decent work at the micro level i.e. industry or individual level. This is because since the formation of the decent work concept; the International Labour Organisation has only provided a methodology of how to measure the progress of decent work at the county level. The survey findings revealed that food vendors scored more poorly on the decent work deficit index compared to the clothing traders. The study also identified that food vendors and clothing traders are faced with different challenges which suggests that policy makers must take that into consideration when attempting to design policies or programmes which are aimed at assisting informal workers.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2020
Non-marital fertility in South Africa: trends, determinants and implications
- Authors: Kara, Reesha
- Date: 2020
- Subjects: Fertility, Human -- South Africa , Child rearing -- South Africa , Parenting -- South Africa , Motherhood -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Doctoral , PhD
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/165620 , vital:41264
- Description: Background: Non-martial fertility is traditionally associated with teenage pregnancy however international and South African literature has detailed increases in the number of adult women who are having children outside of a marriage. South African literature on non-marital fertility is sparse as it lacks a national overview of the trends and determinants of non-marital fertility among women aged 30 and older. The aim of this study was to present a national overview of non-marital fertility among women aged 30 and older. South African’s attitudes to and opinions of non-marital fertility were also investigated, and the lived realities of older mothers were explored. Methods: A mixed-methods research design was employed where the General Household Survey, National Income Dynamics Study and the South African Social Attitudes Survey were the main data sources. Using these data sets, descriptive and inferential statistics were computed using Stata. Using purposive and snowball sampling, four never-married older mothers (NMOMs) from KwaZulu-Natal (Durban) were identified as research participants. The in-depth life histories of these women were collected through face-to- face semi-structured interviews. Results: The results show an 18.43% increase in never-married mothers aged 15- 49 between 2002 and 2017 and interestingly, this increase is not necessarily driven by older mothers (30-49). NMOMs belonged to households with a lower average per capita total monthly household income (R1873.91) compared to all mothers aged 30-49 (R3428.76). NMOMs were also more likely to live in female-headed households (89.52%), to be household heads (64.22%) and to live in traditional areas (35.72%). Between 2002 and 2017, there was a 76.76% increase in mothers (aged 30-49) who were never married and a 7.74% decrease in those who were married, indicating a change in the marital profile of mothers. Despite this national increase in non-marital fertility, South African’s believe that premarital sexual activity is wrong, and that childbearing should take place within a marriage. Similar sentiments were echoed in the in-depth life histories as being the sole breadwinner and primary caregiver, the research participants experienced challenges as single mothers. Conclusion and recommendations: The study has found that there has been an increase in non-marital fertility in South Africa between 2002 and 2017 and that there is an economic element to non-marital fertility in the country. Additional research into non-marital fertility at a national level is recommended with a focus on all women aged 15-49.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2020
- Authors: Kara, Reesha
- Date: 2020
- Subjects: Fertility, Human -- South Africa , Child rearing -- South Africa , Parenting -- South Africa , Motherhood -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Doctoral , PhD
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/165620 , vital:41264
- Description: Background: Non-martial fertility is traditionally associated with teenage pregnancy however international and South African literature has detailed increases in the number of adult women who are having children outside of a marriage. South African literature on non-marital fertility is sparse as it lacks a national overview of the trends and determinants of non-marital fertility among women aged 30 and older. The aim of this study was to present a national overview of non-marital fertility among women aged 30 and older. South African’s attitudes to and opinions of non-marital fertility were also investigated, and the lived realities of older mothers were explored. Methods: A mixed-methods research design was employed where the General Household Survey, National Income Dynamics Study and the South African Social Attitudes Survey were the main data sources. Using these data sets, descriptive and inferential statistics were computed using Stata. Using purposive and snowball sampling, four never-married older mothers (NMOMs) from KwaZulu-Natal (Durban) were identified as research participants. The in-depth life histories of these women were collected through face-to- face semi-structured interviews. Results: The results show an 18.43% increase in never-married mothers aged 15- 49 between 2002 and 2017 and interestingly, this increase is not necessarily driven by older mothers (30-49). NMOMs belonged to households with a lower average per capita total monthly household income (R1873.91) compared to all mothers aged 30-49 (R3428.76). NMOMs were also more likely to live in female-headed households (89.52%), to be household heads (64.22%) and to live in traditional areas (35.72%). Between 2002 and 2017, there was a 76.76% increase in mothers (aged 30-49) who were never married and a 7.74% decrease in those who were married, indicating a change in the marital profile of mothers. Despite this national increase in non-marital fertility, South African’s believe that premarital sexual activity is wrong, and that childbearing should take place within a marriage. Similar sentiments were echoed in the in-depth life histories as being the sole breadwinner and primary caregiver, the research participants experienced challenges as single mothers. Conclusion and recommendations: The study has found that there has been an increase in non-marital fertility in South Africa between 2002 and 2017 and that there is an economic element to non-marital fertility in the country. Additional research into non-marital fertility at a national level is recommended with a focus on all women aged 15-49.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2020
Transitions into informal employment: an analysis of South African panel data: 2008-2012
- Authors: Muttze, Takudzwa
- Date: 2016
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MEcon
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/4498 , vital:20682
- Description: South Africa’s labour market is characterised by high unemployment but relatively low levels of informal employment, making it distinct from other developing countries. The existing literature appears to show evidence of high mobility rates of labour across labour market states. The coexistence of high labour mobility rates, yet high unemployment and weak informal employment in South Africa’s labour market is therefore puzzling. Considerable research has been done to explain this phenomenon and has suggested that barriers to informal entrepreneurship form the key reason why informal employment is relatively low in South Africa compared to other developing countries. Worker transitions have however not been a focal question in the literature. Using data from the National Tncome Dynamics Study (NTDS 2008-2012), this study sought to examine the characteristics of workers who move into informal employment, attaching importance to those who become self-employed. Transition matrices are constructed showing the proportion of workers who stayed or moved into different labour market states between 2008 and 2012, and linking the movements to 2008 personal characteristics. Churning between labour market states was found to be relatively high, albeit formal wage employment exhibiting immobility. Transitions out of informal employment were high, reflecting its survivalist nature. Conversely, those from unemployment into informal employment, particularly self-employment were low. Using the probit regression model, transitions to informal employment were found to be more associated with workers who are generally marginalised from formal employment opportunities. The results suggest that the South African labour market is to a larger extent not reflective of the Dualist narrative of ease of movement of workers from unemployment into informal employment and barriers into informal entrepreneurship are high. To date, policies which have sought to encourage informal entrepreneurship have not been a success. A central challenge to policymakers is to create an enabling environment for the unemployed to start their own informal businesses. This has the potential of reducing unemployment and poverty rates in the country.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2016
- Authors: Muttze, Takudzwa
- Date: 2016
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MEcon
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/4498 , vital:20682
- Description: South Africa’s labour market is characterised by high unemployment but relatively low levels of informal employment, making it distinct from other developing countries. The existing literature appears to show evidence of high mobility rates of labour across labour market states. The coexistence of high labour mobility rates, yet high unemployment and weak informal employment in South Africa’s labour market is therefore puzzling. Considerable research has been done to explain this phenomenon and has suggested that barriers to informal entrepreneurship form the key reason why informal employment is relatively low in South Africa compared to other developing countries. Worker transitions have however not been a focal question in the literature. Using data from the National Tncome Dynamics Study (NTDS 2008-2012), this study sought to examine the characteristics of workers who move into informal employment, attaching importance to those who become self-employed. Transition matrices are constructed showing the proportion of workers who stayed or moved into different labour market states between 2008 and 2012, and linking the movements to 2008 personal characteristics. Churning between labour market states was found to be relatively high, albeit formal wage employment exhibiting immobility. Transitions out of informal employment were high, reflecting its survivalist nature. Conversely, those from unemployment into informal employment, particularly self-employment were low. Using the probit regression model, transitions to informal employment were found to be more associated with workers who are generally marginalised from formal employment opportunities. The results suggest that the South African labour market is to a larger extent not reflective of the Dualist narrative of ease of movement of workers from unemployment into informal employment and barriers into informal entrepreneurship are high. To date, policies which have sought to encourage informal entrepreneurship have not been a success. A central challenge to policymakers is to create an enabling environment for the unemployed to start their own informal businesses. This has the potential of reducing unemployment and poverty rates in the country.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2016
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