The impact of unanticipated news announcements by the US Federal Reserve On South African stock returns
- Authors: Sibanda, Lorna
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: Monetary policy -- United States , International finance , South Africa -- Foreign economic relations -- United States , United States -- Foreign economic relations -- South Africa , Banks of issue -- United States , Investments -- South Africa , Stocks -- Prices -- South Africa , Stocks -- Rate of return , Rate of return -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/94703 , vital:31070
- Description: This thesis analyses whether monetary policy announcement shocks are transmitted across countries, with special emphasis on the impact of US Federal Reserve announcements on the South African stock market. Monetary policy is an important source of economic news and affects the risk perceptions of market participants. This study will improve the understanding of stock price determinants and possibly influence SA monetary policy in guarding against possible shocks originating from abroad. Using Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) announcements over the period 2008 – 2014, the research studied changes in volatility of the South African FTSE/JSE All Share Index returns over this period. An event study and GARCH model approach was adopted to reach the goals of the analysis. The findings were a statistically insignificant connection between SA stock returns and both anticipated and unanticipated US Federal Reserve announcements. Over the sample period, each shock to SA stock returns persisted for approximately 4-5 months. Although SA stock return volatility demonstrated clustering behaviour (indicating sensitivity to economic shocks), the research could not find an obvious relationship between these spikes in volatility and US Federal Reserve announcements. It is concluded that South African stock returns do not change in response to unexpected US monetary policy announcements.
- Full Text:
- Authors: Sibanda, Lorna
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: Monetary policy -- United States , International finance , South Africa -- Foreign economic relations -- United States , United States -- Foreign economic relations -- South Africa , Banks of issue -- United States , Investments -- South Africa , Stocks -- Prices -- South Africa , Stocks -- Rate of return , Rate of return -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/94703 , vital:31070
- Description: This thesis analyses whether monetary policy announcement shocks are transmitted across countries, with special emphasis on the impact of US Federal Reserve announcements on the South African stock market. Monetary policy is an important source of economic news and affects the risk perceptions of market participants. This study will improve the understanding of stock price determinants and possibly influence SA monetary policy in guarding against possible shocks originating from abroad. Using Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) announcements over the period 2008 – 2014, the research studied changes in volatility of the South African FTSE/JSE All Share Index returns over this period. An event study and GARCH model approach was adopted to reach the goals of the analysis. The findings were a statistically insignificant connection between SA stock returns and both anticipated and unanticipated US Federal Reserve announcements. Over the sample period, each shock to SA stock returns persisted for approximately 4-5 months. Although SA stock return volatility demonstrated clustering behaviour (indicating sensitivity to economic shocks), the research could not find an obvious relationship between these spikes in volatility and US Federal Reserve announcements. It is concluded that South African stock returns do not change in response to unexpected US monetary policy announcements.
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Credit extension in South Africa: an analysis of the impact of interest rates and income levels on the level of household debt
- Widdop, James Stuart Hailstones
- Authors: Widdop, James Stuart Hailstones
- Date: 2017
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/4988 , vital:20750
- Description: The recent growth in the unsecured lending market and the bankruptcy of African Bank Investments Limited have brought to light concerns regarding credit extension and the level of household indebtedness in South Africa. This study seeks to investigate the relevant aspects of credit extension in both the secured and unsecured lending markets by firstly analysing contemporary literature and then conducting a more formal empirical analysis. A VAR model is estimated to examine the effects household disposable income and interest rates have on the level of household debt in South Africa for the period 1995Q1-2015Q3. The empirical results indicate that there is no significant deterministic relationship between household disposable income and household debt. However, the results show that such a relationship does exist between interest rate and household debt. Finally, impulse response functions obtained from the VAR estimation are examined which indicate that both shocks too household disposable income and interest rates effect the level of household debt, but that this effect returns to equilibrium within six periods.
- Full Text:
- Authors: Widdop, James Stuart Hailstones
- Date: 2017
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/4988 , vital:20750
- Description: The recent growth in the unsecured lending market and the bankruptcy of African Bank Investments Limited have brought to light concerns regarding credit extension and the level of household indebtedness in South Africa. This study seeks to investigate the relevant aspects of credit extension in both the secured and unsecured lending markets by firstly analysing contemporary literature and then conducting a more formal empirical analysis. A VAR model is estimated to examine the effects household disposable income and interest rates have on the level of household debt in South Africa for the period 1995Q1-2015Q3. The empirical results indicate that there is no significant deterministic relationship between household disposable income and household debt. However, the results show that such a relationship does exist between interest rate and household debt. Finally, impulse response functions obtained from the VAR estimation are examined which indicate that both shocks too household disposable income and interest rates effect the level of household debt, but that this effect returns to equilibrium within six periods.
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Malawi’s trilemma: monetary policy independence, exchange rate stability and financial integration
- Authors: Kamamkhudza, Charity
- Date: 2017
- Subjects: Malawi -- Economic conditions , Economic policy -- Malawi , Monetary policy -- Malawi , Foreign exchange rates -- Malawi
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/41634 , vital:25112
- Description: Malawi has, in the last few decades, undergone several reforms relating to monetary, exchange rate and financial integration policies in a bid to achieve sustainable economic growth. Despite these reforms, however, the country has barely attained desirable macroeconomic performance. This study sets out to establish if the need for these policy reforms is due to the fact that the country is constrained from the simultaneous achievement of optimal levels of monetary policy independence, exchange rate stability and financial integration, as postulated by the ‘trilemma’. The trilemma is evaluated using an approach introduced by Aizenman et al. (2008), in which the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) method is applied to a model in which a constant is regressed on indices constructed for the policy intermediate goals; the results indicate that the trilemma is a binding constraint in Malawi and that the largest trade-off is between exchange rate stability and financial integration. Given these constraints, the study also considers the combination of the trilemma intermediate policy goals that has been dominant in the country in the last three decades, using predicted values from the model and a graphical analysis to explore this objective. The analysis reveals that Malawi has, on average, prioritised exchange rate stability and monetary policy independence at the expense of financial integration. The study also assesses how the trilemma intermediate policy goals affect macroeconomic performance, specifically regarding output growth rate and inflation. The results reveal that exchange rate stability is associated with faster output growth, financial integration is associated with higher inflation, and that monetary policy independence is not a significant factor. The results emphasise the importance of consistent stability of the exchange rate if Malawi is to achieve faster and sustainable economic growth. Given this, policy makers must be cautious, as the current floating exchange rate regime, combined with financial integration, could lead to slow growth and high inflation.
- Full Text:
- Authors: Kamamkhudza, Charity
- Date: 2017
- Subjects: Malawi -- Economic conditions , Economic policy -- Malawi , Monetary policy -- Malawi , Foreign exchange rates -- Malawi
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/41634 , vital:25112
- Description: Malawi has, in the last few decades, undergone several reforms relating to monetary, exchange rate and financial integration policies in a bid to achieve sustainable economic growth. Despite these reforms, however, the country has barely attained desirable macroeconomic performance. This study sets out to establish if the need for these policy reforms is due to the fact that the country is constrained from the simultaneous achievement of optimal levels of monetary policy independence, exchange rate stability and financial integration, as postulated by the ‘trilemma’. The trilemma is evaluated using an approach introduced by Aizenman et al. (2008), in which the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) method is applied to a model in which a constant is regressed on indices constructed for the policy intermediate goals; the results indicate that the trilemma is a binding constraint in Malawi and that the largest trade-off is between exchange rate stability and financial integration. Given these constraints, the study also considers the combination of the trilemma intermediate policy goals that has been dominant in the country in the last three decades, using predicted values from the model and a graphical analysis to explore this objective. The analysis reveals that Malawi has, on average, prioritised exchange rate stability and monetary policy independence at the expense of financial integration. The study also assesses how the trilemma intermediate policy goals affect macroeconomic performance, specifically regarding output growth rate and inflation. The results reveal that exchange rate stability is associated with faster output growth, financial integration is associated with higher inflation, and that monetary policy independence is not a significant factor. The results emphasise the importance of consistent stability of the exchange rate if Malawi is to achieve faster and sustainable economic growth. Given this, policy makers must be cautious, as the current floating exchange rate regime, combined with financial integration, could lead to slow growth and high inflation.
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Government debt levels and the systemic risks associated with post-crisis fiscal policies
- Authors: Koekemoer, Jonathan
- Date: 2013
- Subjects: Finance, Public Debts, Public -- South Africa Fiscal policy Monetary policy -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1031 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1004168
- Description: The study analyses the concepts of intergenerational equity and fiscal sustainability in South Africa. The question raised is whether or not South Africa can adopt stimulatory fiscal measures, with a simultaneous increase in debt, so as to improve long-term growth potential in a sustainable manner without creating an excessive burden on future generations. The debate surrounding the use of stimulatory fiscal policy has come to the fore once again as monetary policy has become a restricted and ineffective macroeconomic policy tool in certain countries after the world-wide financial crisis and the Euro-debt crisis. Fiscal sustainability risks and high debt levels remain a source of concern in the United States and the Euro-zone, while South Africa presently seems to be at no great risk. With South Africa’s intention to become a developmental state, the use and appropriateness of fiscal policy is considered. An overlapping-generations model is used to determine whether or not future generations will be burdened due to current stimulatory policy. The use of fiscal rules in South Africa is discussed and considered in light of various political incentives and constraints. The conclusion given is that the possible use of a procedural fiscal rule, such as the ‘golden rule’, may add credibility to the current regime, while a numerical fiscal rule is seen as unnecessary given South Africa’s responsible use of fiscal policy thus far. As it stands, there is little possibility or risk that the public debt in South Africa will become too high in the near future. Although South Africa has been affected by the crisis, the developmental nature of the economy has been sustained through the use of responsible discretionary fiscal policy, putting South Africa in a positive position to meet its long-run growth potential.
- Full Text:
- Authors: Koekemoer, Jonathan
- Date: 2013
- Subjects: Finance, Public Debts, Public -- South Africa Fiscal policy Monetary policy -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1031 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1004168
- Description: The study analyses the concepts of intergenerational equity and fiscal sustainability in South Africa. The question raised is whether or not South Africa can adopt stimulatory fiscal measures, with a simultaneous increase in debt, so as to improve long-term growth potential in a sustainable manner without creating an excessive burden on future generations. The debate surrounding the use of stimulatory fiscal policy has come to the fore once again as monetary policy has become a restricted and ineffective macroeconomic policy tool in certain countries after the world-wide financial crisis and the Euro-debt crisis. Fiscal sustainability risks and high debt levels remain a source of concern in the United States and the Euro-zone, while South Africa presently seems to be at no great risk. With South Africa’s intention to become a developmental state, the use and appropriateness of fiscal policy is considered. An overlapping-generations model is used to determine whether or not future generations will be burdened due to current stimulatory policy. The use of fiscal rules in South Africa is discussed and considered in light of various political incentives and constraints. The conclusion given is that the possible use of a procedural fiscal rule, such as the ‘golden rule’, may add credibility to the current regime, while a numerical fiscal rule is seen as unnecessary given South Africa’s responsible use of fiscal policy thus far. As it stands, there is little possibility or risk that the public debt in South Africa will become too high in the near future. Although South Africa has been affected by the crisis, the developmental nature of the economy has been sustained through the use of responsible discretionary fiscal policy, putting South Africa in a positive position to meet its long-run growth potential.
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The feasibility of forming a monetary union in SADC : meeting convergence and optimum currency area criteria and evaluating fiscal sustainability
- Authors: Mokoena, Motshidisi Suzan
- Date: 2013
- Subjects: Southern African Development Community Economic and Monetary Union Common Monetary Area (Organization) Economic policy -- Africa, Southern Monetary policy -- Africa, Southern Monetary unions
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1073 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1007743
- Description: In conformity with the goal of the African Union to build a monetary union for the entire African continent, one of the goals of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) is the formation of a monetary union with a single central bank. Towards this end certain macroeconomic convergence criteria, which are closely aligned with those used by the European Union (EU), have been set. While empirical research on whether or not SADC would benefit from the formation of a currency union has focused on the optimum currency area criteria, no reference to these criteria is made in the SADC programme. Instead, the SADC approach has been governed by a set of macroeconomic convergence criteria synonymous with those pursued by the European Monetary Union (EMU) prior to its formation. Doubts regarding the future of the EU have recently been raised as a result of debt crises in certain member states, implicitly raising questions about the adequacy of the convergence criteria that were adopted. Accordingly, this study considers the feasibility of establishing a currency union in the SADC region. The proposed convergence criteria are assessed against the theory of optimum currency areas as well as in terms of their adequacy in the light of recent EU experience. In addition, the paper provides a preliminary assessment of the fiscal sustainability of the SADC region by conducting Engle-Granger cointegration tests on the public debt and revenue series for the SADC countries under analysis. It was observed that SADC has made considerable progress towards meeting its macroeconomic convergence criteria in recent years. However, in light of the regions' heavy dependence on commodity exports coupled with recent price fluctuations in this regard, the sustainability of this progress is questioned. Furthermore, a review of the EMU experience to date highlights numerous flaws in its approach and the potential challenges the SADC region should consider in moving forward with its agenda. In essence, the study suggests that almost all the SADC member states are fiscally unprepared for monetary union formation and the recent EMU debt crisis has highlighted the importance of acquiring a state of fiscal sustainability prior to union formation. In addition, it is imperative that the SADC members continue to address issues of product diversification, intraregional trade and political unification, all of which should be governed by a centralised fiscal authoriry.
- Full Text:
- Authors: Mokoena, Motshidisi Suzan
- Date: 2013
- Subjects: Southern African Development Community Economic and Monetary Union Common Monetary Area (Organization) Economic policy -- Africa, Southern Monetary policy -- Africa, Southern Monetary unions
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1073 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1007743
- Description: In conformity with the goal of the African Union to build a monetary union for the entire African continent, one of the goals of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) is the formation of a monetary union with a single central bank. Towards this end certain macroeconomic convergence criteria, which are closely aligned with those used by the European Union (EU), have been set. While empirical research on whether or not SADC would benefit from the formation of a currency union has focused on the optimum currency area criteria, no reference to these criteria is made in the SADC programme. Instead, the SADC approach has been governed by a set of macroeconomic convergence criteria synonymous with those pursued by the European Monetary Union (EMU) prior to its formation. Doubts regarding the future of the EU have recently been raised as a result of debt crises in certain member states, implicitly raising questions about the adequacy of the convergence criteria that were adopted. Accordingly, this study considers the feasibility of establishing a currency union in the SADC region. The proposed convergence criteria are assessed against the theory of optimum currency areas as well as in terms of their adequacy in the light of recent EU experience. In addition, the paper provides a preliminary assessment of the fiscal sustainability of the SADC region by conducting Engle-Granger cointegration tests on the public debt and revenue series for the SADC countries under analysis. It was observed that SADC has made considerable progress towards meeting its macroeconomic convergence criteria in recent years. However, in light of the regions' heavy dependence on commodity exports coupled with recent price fluctuations in this regard, the sustainability of this progress is questioned. Furthermore, a review of the EMU experience to date highlights numerous flaws in its approach and the potential challenges the SADC region should consider in moving forward with its agenda. In essence, the study suggests that almost all the SADC member states are fiscally unprepared for monetary union formation and the recent EMU debt crisis has highlighted the importance of acquiring a state of fiscal sustainability prior to union formation. In addition, it is imperative that the SADC members continue to address issues of product diversification, intraregional trade and political unification, all of which should be governed by a centralised fiscal authoriry.
- Full Text:
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