Futures analysis
- Hichert, Tanya, Biggs, Reinette, de Vos, Alta
- Authors: Hichert, Tanya , Biggs, Reinette , de Vos, Alta
- Date: 2021
- Subjects: To be catalogued
- Language: English
- Type: text , book chapter
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/433871 , vital:73006 , ISBN 9781000401516 , https://library.oapen.org/handle/20.500.12657/49560
- Description: Futures analysis methods can help people to think constructively and systematically about the future and advance our understanding of change and uncertainty in complex social-ecological systems (SES). This is important because there is not one single predictable future but multiple ones, depending on the complex, unpredictable interplays and interactions of actors, institutions, ecological processes and other elements of the system and its dynamics. Actively developing ideas, images and/or stories about different futures can enable us to make different choices and take different actions in the present in relation to, for example, risk mitigation, adaptation, resource allocation and strategy development, which can help build more sustainable and just futures.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2021
- Authors: Hichert, Tanya , Biggs, Reinette , de Vos, Alta
- Date: 2021
- Subjects: To be catalogued
- Language: English
- Type: text , book chapter
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/433871 , vital:73006 , ISBN 9781000401516 , https://library.oapen.org/handle/20.500.12657/49560
- Description: Futures analysis methods can help people to think constructively and systematically about the future and advance our understanding of change and uncertainty in complex social-ecological systems (SES). This is important because there is not one single predictable future but multiple ones, depending on the complex, unpredictable interplays and interactions of actors, institutions, ecological processes and other elements of the system and its dynamics. Actively developing ideas, images and/or stories about different futures can enable us to make different choices and take different actions in the present in relation to, for example, risk mitigation, adaptation, resource allocation and strategy development, which can help build more sustainable and just futures.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2021
Scenario development
- Hichert, Tanya, Biggs, Reinette, de Vos, Alta, Peterson, Garry
- Authors: Hichert, Tanya , Biggs, Reinette , de Vos, Alta , Peterson, Garry
- Date: 2021
- Subjects: To be catalogued
- Language: English
- Type: text , book chapter
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/433857 , vital:73005 , ISBN 9781000401516 , https://library.oapen.org/handle/20.500.12657/49560
- Description: Scenario development connects to various other methods, but in particular to futures analysis (Chapter 10) as it is also regarded as a futures analysis method. It warrants a separate chapter in addition to the other futures analysis methods (described in Chapter 10) because of its importance and widespread use. Scenario development also connects to facilitated dialogues (Chapter 9), serious games (Chapter 12), participatory modelling and planning (Chapter 13), dynamical systems modelling (Chapter 26) and agent-based modelling (Chapter 28).
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2021
- Authors: Hichert, Tanya , Biggs, Reinette , de Vos, Alta , Peterson, Garry
- Date: 2021
- Subjects: To be catalogued
- Language: English
- Type: text , book chapter
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/433857 , vital:73005 , ISBN 9781000401516 , https://library.oapen.org/handle/20.500.12657/49560
- Description: Scenario development connects to various other methods, but in particular to futures analysis (Chapter 10) as it is also regarded as a futures analysis method. It warrants a separate chapter in addition to the other futures analysis methods (described in Chapter 10) because of its importance and widespread use. Scenario development also connects to facilitated dialogues (Chapter 9), serious games (Chapter 12), participatory modelling and planning (Chapter 13), dynamical systems modelling (Chapter 26) and agent-based modelling (Chapter 28).
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2021
Synthesis and emerging frontiers in social-ecological systems research methods
- Schluter, Maja, Biggs, Reinette, Clements, Hayley, de Vos, Alta, Maciejewski, Kristine, Preiser, Rika
- Authors: Schluter, Maja , Biggs, Reinette , Clements, Hayley , de Vos, Alta , Maciejewski, Kristine , Preiser, Rika
- Date: 2021
- Subjects: To be catalogued
- Language: English
- Type: text , book chapter
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/433887 , vital:73007 , ISBN 9781000401516 , https://library.oapen.org/handle/20.500.12657/49560
- Description: Social-ecological systems (SES) research is a rapidly emerging new research domain within the broader emerging area of sustainability science. It is largely a problem-driven and action-oriented field, motivated by the immense sustainability and equity-related challenges facing society (see Chapter 1). Social-ecological systems research is based on an understanding that SES are complex adaptive systems (CAS), where social and ecological dynamics are deeply intertwined, and give rise to features and problems that cannot be understood or addressed by studying these dimensions in isolation (see Chapter 2). The field draws on and combines methods from both natural and social sciences, and combines quantitative and qualitative approaches. As such, SES research is characterised by epistemological and methodological pluralism, which is challenging for those entering the field and has complex implications for the research process, methods and ethical considerations to be taken into account in SES research (see Chapter 3). This book aims to clarify and synthesise this plurality by providing an introduction to SES research (Part 1), and the diversity of methods currently used in the field (Part 2). The aim of this final chapter (Part 3) is to provide a synthesis of the current landscape of SES methods, critically reflect on the methods with respect to their ability to address systemic features of SES and discuss some of the most common methodological challenges associated with the complex adaptive and intertwined nature of SES. Based on this synthesis, we identify methodological gaps and discuss novel methods and method combinations that may help to address these gaps and move the field forward.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2021
- Authors: Schluter, Maja , Biggs, Reinette , Clements, Hayley , de Vos, Alta , Maciejewski, Kristine , Preiser, Rika
- Date: 2021
- Subjects: To be catalogued
- Language: English
- Type: text , book chapter
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/433887 , vital:73007 , ISBN 9781000401516 , https://library.oapen.org/handle/20.500.12657/49560
- Description: Social-ecological systems (SES) research is a rapidly emerging new research domain within the broader emerging area of sustainability science. It is largely a problem-driven and action-oriented field, motivated by the immense sustainability and equity-related challenges facing society (see Chapter 1). Social-ecological systems research is based on an understanding that SES are complex adaptive systems (CAS), where social and ecological dynamics are deeply intertwined, and give rise to features and problems that cannot be understood or addressed by studying these dimensions in isolation (see Chapter 2). The field draws on and combines methods from both natural and social sciences, and combines quantitative and qualitative approaches. As such, SES research is characterised by epistemological and methodological pluralism, which is challenging for those entering the field and has complex implications for the research process, methods and ethical considerations to be taken into account in SES research (see Chapter 3). This book aims to clarify and synthesise this plurality by providing an introduction to SES research (Part 1), and the diversity of methods currently used in the field (Part 2). The aim of this final chapter (Part 3) is to provide a synthesis of the current landscape of SES methods, critically reflect on the methods with respect to their ability to address systemic features of SES and discuss some of the most common methodological challenges associated with the complex adaptive and intertwined nature of SES. Based on this synthesis, we identify methodological gaps and discuss novel methods and method combinations that may help to address these gaps and move the field forward.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2021
The influence of biophysical and socio-economic factors on the effectiveness of private land conservation areas in preventing natural land cover loss across South Africa
- Shumba, Tafadzwa, de Vos, Alta, Biggs, Reinette, Esler, Karen J, Clements, Hayley S
- Authors: Shumba, Tafadzwa , de Vos, Alta , Biggs, Reinette , Esler, Karen J , Clements, Hayley S
- Date: 2021
- Subjects: To be catalogued
- Language: English
- Type: text , article
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/415940 , vital:71302 , xlink:href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gecco.2021.e01670"
- Description: There is increasing interest in the potential of private land conservation areas (PLCAs) as a complementary biodiversity conservation strategy to state-owned protected areas. However, there is limited understanding of how the diverse social-ecological contexts of PLCAs influence their effectiveness in conserving biodiversity. Here, we investigated how the effectiveness of South African PLCAs in conserving biodiversity varied across social-ecological contexts, using natural land cover as a proxy. Social-ecological contexts were represented by biophysical and legal factors (distance to towns and roads, elevation, slope, terrain ruggedness, rainfall, PLCA size, distance to state-owned national parks, and presence of legal protection) and, for a subset of commercially-operated PLCAs, management factors (adopted business model, and profitability).
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2021
- Authors: Shumba, Tafadzwa , de Vos, Alta , Biggs, Reinette , Esler, Karen J , Clements, Hayley S
- Date: 2021
- Subjects: To be catalogued
- Language: English
- Type: text , article
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/415940 , vital:71302 , xlink:href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gecco.2021.e01670"
- Description: There is increasing interest in the potential of private land conservation areas (PLCAs) as a complementary biodiversity conservation strategy to state-owned protected areas. However, there is limited understanding of how the diverse social-ecological contexts of PLCAs influence their effectiveness in conserving biodiversity. Here, we investigated how the effectiveness of South African PLCAs in conserving biodiversity varied across social-ecological contexts, using natural land cover as a proxy. Social-ecological contexts were represented by biophysical and legal factors (distance to towns and roads, elevation, slope, terrain ruggedness, rainfall, PLCA size, distance to state-owned national parks, and presence of legal protection) and, for a subset of commercially-operated PLCAs, management factors (adopted business model, and profitability).
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2021
What are social-ecological systems and social-ecological systems research
- Biggs, Reinette, Clements, Hayley, de Vos, Alta, Folke, Carl, Manyani, Amanda, Maciejewski, Kristine, Martin-Lopez, Berta, Preiser, Rika, Selomane, Odirilwe, Schluter, Maja
- Authors: Biggs, Reinette , Clements, Hayley , de Vos, Alta , Folke, Carl , Manyani, Amanda , Maciejewski, Kristine , Martin-Lopez, Berta , Preiser, Rika , Selomane, Odirilwe , Schluter, Maja
- Date: 2021
- Subjects: To be catalogued
- Language: English
- Type: text , book chapter
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/433900 , vital:73008 , ISBN 9781000401516 , https://library.oapen.org/handle/20.500.12657/49560
- Description: The period since the Second World War has been marked by rapid and accelerating changes to many aspects of human society and the environment (Clark, Crutzen, and Schellnhuber 2004; Steffen et al. 2011; Steffen et al. 2015a). There is accumulating evidence and rising concern about the potential consequences these changes hold for key Earth system processes at a global scale, and human well-being and prosperity into the future (Krausmann et al. 2013; Steffen et al. 2015b). The Anthropocene, as this new era of extensive human impact on the Earth has come to be known (Crutzen 2006), manifests in a closely intertwined set of social and ecological changes. Technological advances, increasing human population, rising levels of wealth and consumption, and the institutional arrangements we have developed to govern our economies and societies interplay with one another, and drastically affect the Earth’s climate, biological diversity, fresh-water and biogeochemical flows, and levels of novel pollutants in the environment (Steffen et al. 2015a). These environmental changes, in turn, contribute to increasingly frequent and severe droughts (Dai 2013; Trenberth et al. 2014), floods (Milly et al. 2002; Nicholls 2004), heatwaves (Guo et al. 2018; Oliver et al. 2018) and the emergence of novel pathogens such as SARS-CoV-2 (Everard et al. 2020; O ’Callaghan-Gordo and Antò 2020; Schmeller, Courchamp, and Killeen 2020) that can lead to massive societal disruption and hardship, especially among the poor (Wheeler and Von Braun 2013; Barbier and Hochard 2018).
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2021
- Authors: Biggs, Reinette , Clements, Hayley , de Vos, Alta , Folke, Carl , Manyani, Amanda , Maciejewski, Kristine , Martin-Lopez, Berta , Preiser, Rika , Selomane, Odirilwe , Schluter, Maja
- Date: 2021
- Subjects: To be catalogued
- Language: English
- Type: text , book chapter
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/433900 , vital:73008 , ISBN 9781000401516 , https://library.oapen.org/handle/20.500.12657/49560
- Description: The period since the Second World War has been marked by rapid and accelerating changes to many aspects of human society and the environment (Clark, Crutzen, and Schellnhuber 2004; Steffen et al. 2011; Steffen et al. 2015a). There is accumulating evidence and rising concern about the potential consequences these changes hold for key Earth system processes at a global scale, and human well-being and prosperity into the future (Krausmann et al. 2013; Steffen et al. 2015b). The Anthropocene, as this new era of extensive human impact on the Earth has come to be known (Crutzen 2006), manifests in a closely intertwined set of social and ecological changes. Technological advances, increasing human population, rising levels of wealth and consumption, and the institutional arrangements we have developed to govern our economies and societies interplay with one another, and drastically affect the Earth’s climate, biological diversity, fresh-water and biogeochemical flows, and levels of novel pollutants in the environment (Steffen et al. 2015a). These environmental changes, in turn, contribute to increasingly frequent and severe droughts (Dai 2013; Trenberth et al. 2014), floods (Milly et al. 2002; Nicholls 2004), heatwaves (Guo et al. 2018; Oliver et al. 2018) and the emergence of novel pathogens such as SARS-CoV-2 (Everard et al. 2020; O ’Callaghan-Gordo and Antò 2020; Schmeller, Courchamp, and Killeen 2020) that can lead to massive societal disruption and hardship, especially among the poor (Wheeler and Von Braun 2013; Barbier and Hochard 2018).
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2021
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