Wavelet Theory: for Economic & Financial Cycles
- Authors: Mlambo, Farai Fredric
- Date: 2019-12
- Subjects: Wavelets (Mathematics) , Finance -- Mathematical models , Economic forecasting
- Language: English
- Type: Doctoral theses , text
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/49930 , vital:41861
- Description: Cycles - their nature in existence, their implications on human-kind and the study thereof have sparked some important philosophical debates since the very pre-historic days. Notable contributions by famous, genius philosophers, mathematicians, historians and economists such as Pareto, Deulofeu, Danielewski, Kuznets, Kondratiev, Elliot and many others in itself shows how cycles and their study have been deemed important, through the history and process of scientific and philosophical inquiry. Particularly, the explication of Business, Economic and Financial cycles have seen some significant research and policy attention. Nevertheless, most of the methodologies employed in this space are either purely empirical in nature, time series based or the so-called Regime-Switching Markov model popularized in Economics by James Hamilton. In this work, we develop a Statistical, non-linear model fit based on circle geometry which is applicable for the dating of cycles. This study proposes a scalable, smooth and differentiable quarter-circular wavelet basis for the smoothing and dating of business, economic and financial cycles. The dating then necessitates the forecasting of the cyclical patterns in the evolution of business, economic and financial time series. The practical significance of dating and forecasting business and financial cycles cannot be over-emphasized. The use of wavelet decomposition in explaining cycles can be seen as an critical contribution of spectral methods of statistical modelling to finance and economic policy at large. Being a relatively new method, wavelet analysis has seen some great contribution in geophysical modelling. This study endeavours to widen the use and application of frequency-time decomposition to the economic and financial space. Wavelets are localized in both time and frequency, such that there is no loss of the time resolution. The importance of time resolution in dating of cycles is another motivation behind using wavelets. Moreover, the preservation of time resolution in wavelet analysis is a fundamental strength employed in the dating of cycles. , Thesis (DPhil) -- Faculty of Science, Mathematical Statistics, 2019
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- Date Issued: 2019-12
Good's casualty for time series: a regime-switching framework
- Authors: Mlambo, Farai Fredric
- Date: 2014
- Subjects: Time-series analysis , Econometrics
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/6018 , vital:21025
- Description: Causal analysis is a significant role-playing field in the applied sciences such as statistics, econometrics, and technometrics. Particularly, probability-raising models have warranted significant research interest. Most of the discussions in this area are philosophical in nature. Contemporarily, the econometric causality theory, developed by C.J.W. Granger, is popular in practical, time series causal applications. While this type of causality technique has many strong features, it has serious limitations. The processes studied, in particular, should be stationary and causal relationships are restricted to be linear. However, we cannot classify regime-switching processes as linear and stationary. I.J. Good proposed a probabilistic, event-type explication of causality that circumvents some of the limitations of Granger’s methodology. This work uses the probability raising causality ideology, as postulated by Good, to propose some causal analysis methodology applicable in a stochastic, non-stationary domain. There is a proposal made for a Good’s causality test, by transforming the originally specified probabilistic causality theory from random events to a stochastic, regime-switching framework. The researcher performed methodological validation via causality simulations for a Markov, regime-switching model. The proposed test can be used to detect whether none stochastic process is causal to the observed behaviour of another, probabilistically. In particular, the regime-switch causality explication proposed herein is pivotal to the results articulated. This research also examines the power of the proposed test by using simulations, and outlines some steps that one may take in using the test in a practical setting.
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- Date Issued: 2014