Comparing models for predicting species' potential distributions : a case study using correlative and mechanistic predictive modelling techniques
- Robertson, Mark P, Peter, Craig I, Villet, Martin H, Ripley, Bradford S
- Authors: Robertson, Mark P , Peter, Craig I , Villet, Martin H , Ripley, Bradford S
- Date: 2003
- Language: English
- Type: Article
- Identifier: vital:6539 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1005980 , http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0304-3800(03)00028-0
- Description: Models used to predict species’ potential distributions have been described as either correlative or mechanistic. We attempted to determine whether correlative models could perform as well as mechanistic models for predicting species potential distributions, using a case study. We compared potential distribution predictions made for a coastal dune plant (Scaevola plumieri) along the coast of South Africa, using a mechanistic model based on summer water balance (SWB), and two correlative models (a profile and a group discrimination technique). The profile technique was based on principal components analysis (PCA) and the group-discrimination technique was based on multiple logistic regression (LR). Kappa (κ) statistics were used to objectively assess model performance and model agreement. Model performance was calculated by measuring the levels of agreement (using κ) between a set of testing localities (distribution records not used for model building) and each of the model predictions. Using published interpretive guidelines for the kappa statistic, model performance was “excellent” for the SWB model (κ=0.852), perfect for the LR model (κ=1.000), and “very good” for the PCA model (κ=0.721). Model agreement was calculated by measuring the level of agreement between the mechanistic model and the two correlative models. There was “good” model agreement between the SWB and PCA models (κ=0.679) and “very good” agreement between the SWB and LR models (κ=0.786). The results suggest that correlative models can perform as well as or better than simple mechanistic models. The predictions generated from these three modelling designs are likely to generate different insights into the potential distribution and biology of the target organism and may be appropriate in different situations. The choice of model is likely to be influenced by the aims of the study, the biology of the target organism, the level of knowledge the target organism’s biology, and data quality.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2003
- Authors: Robertson, Mark P , Peter, Craig I , Villet, Martin H , Ripley, Bradford S
- Date: 2003
- Language: English
- Type: Article
- Identifier: vital:6539 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1005980 , http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0304-3800(03)00028-0
- Description: Models used to predict species’ potential distributions have been described as either correlative or mechanistic. We attempted to determine whether correlative models could perform as well as mechanistic models for predicting species potential distributions, using a case study. We compared potential distribution predictions made for a coastal dune plant (Scaevola plumieri) along the coast of South Africa, using a mechanistic model based on summer water balance (SWB), and two correlative models (a profile and a group discrimination technique). The profile technique was based on principal components analysis (PCA) and the group-discrimination technique was based on multiple logistic regression (LR). Kappa (κ) statistics were used to objectively assess model performance and model agreement. Model performance was calculated by measuring the levels of agreement (using κ) between a set of testing localities (distribution records not used for model building) and each of the model predictions. Using published interpretive guidelines for the kappa statistic, model performance was “excellent” for the SWB model (κ=0.852), perfect for the LR model (κ=1.000), and “very good” for the PCA model (κ=0.721). Model agreement was calculated by measuring the level of agreement between the mechanistic model and the two correlative models. There was “good” model agreement between the SWB and PCA models (κ=0.679) and “very good” agreement between the SWB and LR models (κ=0.786). The results suggest that correlative models can perform as well as or better than simple mechanistic models. The predictions generated from these three modelling designs are likely to generate different insights into the potential distribution and biology of the target organism and may be appropriate in different situations. The choice of model is likely to be influenced by the aims of the study, the biology of the target organism, the level of knowledge the target organism’s biology, and data quality.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2003
Environmental limits to the distribution of Scaevola plumieri along the South African coast
- Peter, Craig I, Ripley, Bradford S, Robertson, Mark P
- Authors: Peter, Craig I , Ripley, Bradford S , Robertson, Mark P
- Date: 2003
- Language: English
- Type: Article
- Identifier: vital:6872 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1011617
- Description: Scaevola plumieri is an important pioneer on many tropical and subtropical sand dunes, forming a large perennial subterranean plant with only the tips of the branches emerging above accreting sand. In South Africa it is the dominant pioneer on sandy beaches along the east coast, less abundant on the south coast and absent from the southwest and west coasts. Transpiration rates (E) of S. plumieri are predictably related to atmospheric vapour pressure deficit under a wide range of conditions and can therefore be predicted from measurement of ambient temperature and relative humidity. Scaling measurements of E at the leaf level to the canopy level has been demonstrated previously. Using a geographic information system, digital maps of regional climatic variables were used to calculate digital maps of potential transpiration from mean monthly temperature and relative humidity values, effectively scaling canopy level transpiration rates to a regional level. Monthly potential transpiration was subtracted from the monthly median rainfall to produce a map of mean monthly water balance. Seasonal growth was correlated with seasonal water balance. Localities along the coast with water deficits in summer corresponded with the recorded absence of S. plumieri, which grows and reproduces most actively in the summer months. This suggests that reduced water availability during the summer growth period limits the distribution of S. plumieri along the southwest coast, where water deficits develop in summer. Temperature is also important in limiting the distribution of S. plumieri on the southwest coast of South Africa through its effects on the growth and phenology of the plant.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2003
- Authors: Peter, Craig I , Ripley, Bradford S , Robertson, Mark P
- Date: 2003
- Language: English
- Type: Article
- Identifier: vital:6872 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1011617
- Description: Scaevola plumieri is an important pioneer on many tropical and subtropical sand dunes, forming a large perennial subterranean plant with only the tips of the branches emerging above accreting sand. In South Africa it is the dominant pioneer on sandy beaches along the east coast, less abundant on the south coast and absent from the southwest and west coasts. Transpiration rates (E) of S. plumieri are predictably related to atmospheric vapour pressure deficit under a wide range of conditions and can therefore be predicted from measurement of ambient temperature and relative humidity. Scaling measurements of E at the leaf level to the canopy level has been demonstrated previously. Using a geographic information system, digital maps of regional climatic variables were used to calculate digital maps of potential transpiration from mean monthly temperature and relative humidity values, effectively scaling canopy level transpiration rates to a regional level. Monthly potential transpiration was subtracted from the monthly median rainfall to produce a map of mean monthly water balance. Seasonal growth was correlated with seasonal water balance. Localities along the coast with water deficits in summer corresponded with the recorded absence of S. plumieri, which grows and reproduces most actively in the summer months. This suggests that reduced water availability during the summer growth period limits the distribution of S. plumieri along the southwest coast, where water deficits develop in summer. Temperature is also important in limiting the distribution of S. plumieri on the southwest coast of South Africa through its effects on the growth and phenology of the plant.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2003
Pollination success in a deceptive orchid is enhanced by co-occurring rewarding magnet plants
- Johnson, Steven D, Peter, Craig I, Nilsson, L Anders, Agren, Jon
- Authors: Johnson, Steven D , Peter, Craig I , Nilsson, L Anders , Agren, Jon
- Date: 2003
- Language: English
- Type: Article
- Identifier: vital:6520 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1005949 , http://www.jstor.org/stable/3449962
- Description: It has been debated whether pollination success in nonrewarding plants that flower in association with nectar-producing plants will be diminished by competition for pollinator visits or, alternatively, enhanced through increased local abundance of pollinators (the magnet species effect). We experimentally evaluated these effects using the nonrewarding bumblebee-pollinated orchid Anacamptis morio and associated nectar-producing plants at a site in Sweden. Pollination success (estimated as pollen receipt and pollen removal) in A. morio was significantly greater for individuals translocated to patches of nectar-producing plants (Geum rivale and Allium schoenoprasum) than for individuals placed outside (similar to20 m away) such patches. These results provide support for the existence of a facilitative magnet species effect in the interaction between certain nectar plants and A. morio. To determine the spatial scale of these interactions, we correlated the visitation rate to flowers of A. morio with the density of sympatric nectar plants in 1-m(2) and 100-m(2) plots centered around groups of translocated plants, and at the level of whole meadows (similar to0.5-2 ha). Visitation rate to flowers of A. morio was not correlated with the 1-m(2) patch density of G. rivale and A. schoenoprasum, but showed a significant positive relationship with density of these nectar plants in 100-m(2) plots. In addition, visitation to flowers of A. morio was strongly and positively related to the density of A. schoenoprasum at the level of the meadow. Choice experiments showed that bees foraging on the purple flowers of A. schoenoprasum (a particularly effective magnet species) visit the purple flowers of A. morio more readily (47.6% of choices) than bees foraging on the yellow flowers of Lotus corniculatus (17% of choices). Overall similarity in flower color and shape may increase the probability that a pollinator will temporarily shift from a nectar-producing "magnet" plant to a nonrewarding plant. We discuss the possibility of a mimicry continuum between those orchids that exploit instinctive food-seeking behavior of pollinators and those that show an adaptive resemblance to nectar-producing plants.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2003
- Authors: Johnson, Steven D , Peter, Craig I , Nilsson, L Anders , Agren, Jon
- Date: 2003
- Language: English
- Type: Article
- Identifier: vital:6520 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1005949 , http://www.jstor.org/stable/3449962
- Description: It has been debated whether pollination success in nonrewarding plants that flower in association with nectar-producing plants will be diminished by competition for pollinator visits or, alternatively, enhanced through increased local abundance of pollinators (the magnet species effect). We experimentally evaluated these effects using the nonrewarding bumblebee-pollinated orchid Anacamptis morio and associated nectar-producing plants at a site in Sweden. Pollination success (estimated as pollen receipt and pollen removal) in A. morio was significantly greater for individuals translocated to patches of nectar-producing plants (Geum rivale and Allium schoenoprasum) than for individuals placed outside (similar to20 m away) such patches. These results provide support for the existence of a facilitative magnet species effect in the interaction between certain nectar plants and A. morio. To determine the spatial scale of these interactions, we correlated the visitation rate to flowers of A. morio with the density of sympatric nectar plants in 1-m(2) and 100-m(2) plots centered around groups of translocated plants, and at the level of whole meadows (similar to0.5-2 ha). Visitation rate to flowers of A. morio was not correlated with the 1-m(2) patch density of G. rivale and A. schoenoprasum, but showed a significant positive relationship with density of these nectar plants in 100-m(2) plots. In addition, visitation to flowers of A. morio was strongly and positively related to the density of A. schoenoprasum at the level of the meadow. Choice experiments showed that bees foraging on the purple flowers of A. schoenoprasum (a particularly effective magnet species) visit the purple flowers of A. morio more readily (47.6% of choices) than bees foraging on the yellow flowers of Lotus corniculatus (17% of choices). Overall similarity in flower color and shape may increase the probability that a pollinator will temporarily shift from a nectar-producing "magnet" plant to a nonrewarding plant. We discuss the possibility of a mimicry continuum between those orchids that exploit instinctive food-seeking behavior of pollinators and those that show an adaptive resemblance to nectar-producing plants.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2003
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