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Drowning in data, thirsty for information and starved for understanding: A biodiversity information hub for cooperative environmental monitoring in South Africa

- MacFadyen, Sandra, Allsopp, Nicky, Altwegg, Res, Archibald, Sally, Botha, Judith, Bradshaw, Karen L, Carruthers, Jane, De Klerk, Helen, de Vos, Alta, Distiller, Greg, Foord, Stefan, Freitag-Ronaldson, Stefanie, Gibbs, Richard, Hamer, Michelle, Landi, Pietro, MacFayden, Duncan, Manuel, Jeffrey, Midgley, Guy, Moncrieff, Glenn, Munch, Zahn, Mutanga, Onisimo, Sershen, Nenguda, Rendani, Ngwenya, Mzabalazo, Parker, Daniel M, Peel, Mike, Power, John, Pretorius, Joachim, Ramdhani, Syd, Robertson, Mark P, Rushworth, Ian, Skowno, Andrew, Slingsby, Jasper, Turner, Andrew, Visser, Vernon, van Wageningen, Gerhard, Hui, Cang

Education, Training and Capacity-Building in the Field of Biological Invasions in South Africa:

- Byrne, Marcus J, du Plessis, Dorette, Ivey, Philip J, Measey, John, Robertson, Mark P, Robinson, Tamara B, Weaver, Kim N

  • Authors: Byrne, Marcus J , du Plessis, Dorette , Ivey, Philip J , Measey, John , Robertson, Mark P , Robinson, Tamara B , Weaver, Kim N
  • Date: 2020
  • Language: English
  • Type: text , book
  • Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/176250 , vital:42678 , ISBN 978-3-030-32394-3 , 10.1007/978-3-030-32394-3
  • Description: Our changing relationship with the biosphere is one of many anxieties that human society currently confronts. The paradox that some biodiversity that has been moved across the planet by human trade could actually be harmful is unknown to many people. They are either oblivious, or perceive nature as being under threat, rather than as threatening in itself.
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A qualitative ecological risk assessment of the invasive Nile tilapia, Oreochromis niloticus in a sub-tropical African river system (Limpopo River, South Africa)

- Zengeya, Tsungai A, Robertson, Mark P, Booth, Anthony J, Chimimba, Christian T

  • Authors: Zengeya, Tsungai A , Robertson, Mark P , Booth, Anthony J , Chimimba, Christian T
  • Date: 2013
  • Language: English
  • Type: text , article
  • Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/123575 , vital:35457 , https://doi.10.1002/aqc.2258
  • Description: 1. This study outlines the development of a qualitative risk assessment method and its application as a screening tool for determining the risk of establishment and spread of the invasive Nile tilapia, Oreochromis niloticus (Linnaeus, 1758), within the central sub-catchment of the Limpopo River basin in northern South Africa. 2. The assessment used known physiological tolerance limits of O. niloticus in relation to minimum water temperature, presence or absence of dams, seasonality of river flows, and the presence of indigenous fish species of concern to identify river systems that would be suitable for O. niloticus establishment. 3. River sections along the Limpopo main river channel and the immediate reaches of its associated tributaries east of the Limpopo/Lephalala river confluence along the Botswana–South Africa–Zimbabwe border were identified as being highly vulnerable to O. niloticus invasion. Rivers in the upper Bushveld catchment (Upper Limpopo, Mogalakwena, Lephalala, Mokolo, Matlabas and Crocodile rivers) were categorized as of medium ecological risk, while headwater streams were considered to be of low ecological risk. The decrease in vulnerability between lowveld and highveld river sections was mainly a function of low water temperatures (8–12˚C) associated with increasing altitude. 4. Oreochromis niloticus is already established in the lower catchment of the Limpopo River basin where indigenous congenerics are at an extinction risk through hybridization and competition exclusion. Oreochromis niloticus, therefore, poses an ecologically unacceptable risk to river systems in the upper catchment where it is yet to establish. The current risk assessment model provides a useful preliminary framework for the identification of river systems that are vulnerable to an O. niloticus invasion where conservation measures should be directed and implemented to prevent its introduction and spread within the Limpopo river system.
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Ecological niche modeling of the invasive potential of Nile tilapia Oreochromis niloticus in African river systems: concerns and implications for the conservation of indigenous congenerics

- Zengeya, Tsungai A, Robertson, Mark P, Booth, Anthony J, Chimimba, Christian T

  • Authors: Zengeya, Tsungai A , Robertson, Mark P , Booth, Anthony J , Chimimba, Christian T
  • Date: 2013
  • Language: English
  • Type: text , article
  • Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/124341 , vital:35596 , https://doi.10.1007/s10530-012-0386-7
  • Description: This study applied ecological niche models to determine the potential invasive range of Nile tilapia, Oreochromis niloticus, with a particular focus on river systems in southern Africa where it is now established and spreading. Computational tools such as niche models are useful in predicting the potential range of invasive species, but there are limitations to their application. In particular, models trained on native records may fail to predict the full extent of an invasion. This failure is often attributed to changes in either the niche of the invading species or the variables used to develop the models. In this study, we therefore evaluated the differences in the predictive power of models trained with different environmental variables, the effect of species range (native vs. introduced) on model performance and assessed whether or not there is evidence suggestive of a niche shift in Nile tilapia following its introduction. Niche models were constructed using Maxent and the degree of niche similarity was assessed using Schoener‘s index. Null models were used to test for significance. Model performance and niche conservatism varied significantly with variable selection and species range. This indicates that the environmental conditions available to Nile tilapia in its native and introduced ranges are not congruent. Nile tilapia exhibited broad invasive potential over most of southern Africa that overlaps the natural range of endemic congenerics. Of particular concern are areas which are free of exotic species but are now vulnerable due to the promotion of fish introductions mainly for aquaculture and sport fishing.
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A technique for evaluating species richness maps generated from collections data

- Robertson, Mark P, Barker, Nigel P

  • Authors: Robertson, Mark P , Barker, Nigel P
  • Date: 2006
  • Language: English
  • Type: Article
  • Identifier: vital:6538 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1005979
  • Description: There is considerable pressure on conservation planners to use existing data from herbarium and museum collections for planning and monitoring, despite the weaknesses of such data. It is thus important to be able to assess the quality of this information. One application of these data is the production of species richness maps. However, sampling effort is generally not consistent throughout a region for maps generated from collections data, and it is thus desirable to identify geographic grid cells (such as quarter degree squares: QDS) for which there has been low sampling effort. We describe a technique that can be used to identify QDS that are likely to have low species richness that is due to insufficient sampling effort rather than to low actual species richness. The technique exploits relationships between climate and species richness to detect QDS that are poorly sampled. This approach offers advantages over the current practice of applying a single threshold across the entire map region to detectQDSthat are poorly sampled. Here we report on the application of our technique to plant species richness data in the PRECIS database. Results reveal that the majority of QDS in the Flora of Southern Africa region can be considered to be poorly sampled, even when using conservative thresholds for richness values. The advantages and weaknesses of the technique are discussed and issues requiring further investigation are highlighted.
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A fuzzy classification technique for predicting species' distributions: applications using invasive alien plants and indigenous insects

- Robertson, Mark P, Villet, Martin H, Palmer, Anthony R

  • Authors: Robertson, Mark P , Villet, Martin H , Palmer, Anthony R
  • Date: 2004
  • Language: English
  • Type: text , Article
  • Identifier: vital:6897 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1011659 , http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1366-9516.2004.00108.x
  • Description: A new predictive modelling technique called the fuzzy envelope model (FEM) is introduced. The technique can be used to predict potential distributions of organisms using presence-only locality records and a set of environmental predictor variables. FEM uses fuzzy logic to classify a set of predictor variable maps based on the values associated with presence records and combines the results to produce a potential distribution map for a target species. This technique represents several refinements of the envelope approach used in the BIOCLIM modelling package. These refinements are related to the way in which FEMs deal with uncertainty, the way in which this uncertainty is represented in the resultant potential distribution maps, and the way that these maps can be interpreted and applied. To illustrate its potential use in biogeographical studies, FEM was applied to predicting the potential distribution of three invasive alien plant species (Lantana camara L., Ricinus communis L. and Solanum mauritianum Scop.), and three native cicada species (Capicada decora Germar, Platypleura deusta Thun. and P. capensis L.) in South Africa, Lesotho and Swaziland. These models were quantitatively compared with models produced by means of the algorithm used in the BIOCLIM modelling package, which is referred to as a crisp envelope model (the CEM design). The average performance of models of the FEM design was consistently higher than those of the CEM design. There were significant differences in model performance among species but there was no significant interaction between model design and species. The average maximum kappa value ranged from 0.70 to 0.90 for FEM design and from 0.57 to 0.89 for the CEM design, which can be described as 'good' to 'excellent' using published ranges of agreement for the kappa statistic. This technique can be used to predict species' potential distributions that could be used for identifying regions at risk from invasion by alien species. These predictions could also be used in conservation planning in the case of native species.
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A proposed prioritization system for the management of invasive alien plants in South Africa

- Robertson, Mark P, Villet, Martin H, Fairbanks, Dean H K, Henderson, L, Higgins, Simon I, Hoffmann, John H, Le Maitre, David C, Palmer, Anthony R, Riggs, I, Shackleton, Charlie M, Zimmermann, Helmuth G

  • Authors: Robertson, Mark P , Villet, Martin H , Fairbanks, Dean H K , Henderson, L , Higgins, Simon I , Hoffmann, John H , Le Maitre, David C , Palmer, Anthony R , Riggs, I , Shackleton, Charlie M , Zimmermann, Helmuth G
  • Date: 2003
  • Language: English
  • Type: Article
  • Identifier: vital:6911 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1011872
  • Description: Every country has weed species whose presence conflicts in some way with human management objectives and needs. Resources for research and control are limited, so priority should be given to species that are the biggest problem. The prioritization system described in this article was designed to assess objectively research and control priorities of invasive alien plants at a national scale in South Africa. The evaluation consists of seventeen criteria, grouped into five modules, that assess invasiveness, spatial characteristics, potential impact, potential for control, and conflicts of interest for each plant species under consideration. Total prioritization scores, calculated from criterion and module scores, were used to assess a species' priority. Prioritization scores were calculated by combining independent assessments provided by several experts, thus increasing the reliability of the rankings. The total confidence score, a separate index, indicates the reliability and availability of data used to make an assessment. Candidate species for evaluation were identified and assessed by several experts using the prioritization system. The final ranking was made by combining two separate indices, the total prioritization score and the total confidence score. This approach integrates the plant's perceived priority with an index of data reliability. Of the 61 species assessed, those with the highest ranks (Lantana camara, Chromolaena odorata and Opuntia ficus-indica) had high prioritization and high confidence scores, and are thus of most concern. Those species with the lowest ranks, for example, Harrisia martinii, Opuntia spinulifera and Opuntia exaltata, had low prioritization scores and high confidence scores, and thus are of least concern. Our approach to ranking weeds offers several advantages over existing systems because it is designed for multiple assessors based on the Delphi decision-making technique, the criteria contribute equally to the total score, and the system can accommodate incomplete data on a species. Although the choice of criteria may be criticized and the system has certain limitations, it appears to have delivered credible results.
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Comparing models for predicting species' potential distributions : a case study using correlative and mechanistic predictive modelling techniques

- Robertson, Mark P, Peter, Craig I, Villet, Martin H, Ripley, Bradford S

  • Authors: Robertson, Mark P , Peter, Craig I , Villet, Martin H , Ripley, Bradford S
  • Date: 2003
  • Language: English
  • Type: Article
  • Identifier: vital:6539 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1005980 , http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0304-3800(03)00028-0
  • Description: Models used to predict species’ potential distributions have been described as either correlative or mechanistic. We attempted to determine whether correlative models could perform as well as mechanistic models for predicting species potential distributions, using a case study. We compared potential distribution predictions made for a coastal dune plant (Scaevola plumieri) along the coast of South Africa, using a mechanistic model based on summer water balance (SWB), and two correlative models (a profile and a group discrimination technique). The profile technique was based on principal components analysis (PCA) and the group-discrimination technique was based on multiple logistic regression (LR). Kappa (κ) statistics were used to objectively assess model performance and model agreement. Model performance was calculated by measuring the levels of agreement (using κ) between a set of testing localities (distribution records not used for model building) and each of the model predictions. Using published interpretive guidelines for the kappa statistic, model performance was “excellent” for the SWB model (κ=0.852), perfect for the LR model (κ=1.000), and “very good” for the PCA model (κ=0.721). Model agreement was calculated by measuring the level of agreement between the mechanistic model and the two correlative models. There was “good” model agreement between the SWB and PCA models (κ=0.679) and “very good” agreement between the SWB and LR models (κ=0.786). The results suggest that correlative models can perform as well as or better than simple mechanistic models. The predictions generated from these three modelling designs are likely to generate different insights into the potential distribution and biology of the target organism and may be appropriate in different situations. The choice of model is likely to be influenced by the aims of the study, the biology of the target organism, the level of knowledge the target organism’s biology, and data quality.
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Environmental limits to the distribution of Scaevola plumieri along the South African coast

- Peter, Craig I, Ripley, Bradford S, Robertson, Mark P

  • Authors: Peter, Craig I , Ripley, Bradford S , Robertson, Mark P
  • Date: 2003
  • Language: English
  • Type: Article
  • Identifier: vital:6872 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1011617
  • Description: Scaevola plumieri is an important pioneer on many tropical and subtropical sand dunes, forming a large perennial subterranean plant with only the tips of the branches emerging above accreting sand. In South Africa it is the dominant pioneer on sandy beaches along the east coast, less abundant on the south coast and absent from the southwest and west coasts. Transpiration rates (E) of S. plumieri are predictably related to atmospheric vapour pressure deficit under a wide range of conditions and can therefore be predicted from measurement of ambient temperature and relative humidity. Scaling measurements of E at the leaf level to the canopy level has been demonstrated previously. Using a geographic information system, digital maps of regional climatic variables were used to calculate digital maps of potential transpiration from mean monthly temperature and relative humidity values, effectively scaling canopy level transpiration rates to a regional level. Monthly potential transpiration was subtracted from the monthly median rainfall to produce a map of mean monthly water balance. Seasonal growth was correlated with seasonal water balance. Localities along the coast with water deficits in summer corresponded with the recorded absence of S. plumieri, which grows and reproduces most actively in the summer months. This suggests that reduced water availability during the summer growth period limits the distribution of S. plumieri along the southwest coast, where water deficits develop in summer. Temperature is also important in limiting the distribution of S. plumieri on the southwest coast of South Africa through its effects on the growth and phenology of the plant.
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IsiXhosa insect names from the Eastern Cape, South Africa

- Mkize, Nolwazi, Villet, Martin H, Robertson, Mark P

  • Authors: Mkize, Nolwazi , Villet, Martin H , Robertson, Mark P
  • Date: 2003
  • Language: English
  • Type: Article
  • Identifier: vital:6859 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1011148
  • Description: We present a list of isiXhosa names for a wide diversity of South African insects, and their English translations and scientific names, to contribute to bridging the knowledge gap between rural development workers and isiXhosa speakers. We interviewed 51 people in their homes at eight sites across the Eastern Cape and also included words from a published dictionary. We found 151 insect names, and categorized them into personal, dialectal and standard categories. Response-frequency distributions of the categories of names showed that the dialectal and standard lists were essentially complete. Sample accumulation curves showed levelling-off within sites and across the whole study, demonstrating that samples were adequate. The literal translations of some names show that isiXhosa speakers relate insects either to people, to their habitat and/or to their behaviour. The list can contribute to the standardization of knowledge of insects' indigenous names in South Africa for a variety of practical applications such as agricultural training and health services.
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A PCA-based modelling technique for predicting environmental suitability for organisms from presence records

- Robertson, Mark P, Caithness, N, Villet, Martin H

  • Authors: Robertson, Mark P , Caithness, N , Villet, Martin H
  • Date: 2001
  • Subjects: To be catalogued
  • Language: English
  • Type: text , article
  • Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/442609 , vital:74014 , https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1472-4642.2001.00094.x
  • Description: We present a correlative modelling technique that uses locality records (associated with species presence) and a set of predictor variables to produce a statistically justifiable probability response surface for a target species. The probability response surface indicates the suitability of each grid cell in a map for the target species in terms of the suite of predictor variables. The technique constructs a hyperspace for the target species using principal component axes derived from a principal components analysis performed on a training dataset. The training dataset comprises the values of the predictor variables associated with the localities where the species has been recorded as present. The origin of this hyperspace is taken to characterize the centre of the niche of the organism. All the localities (grid‐cells) in the map region are then fitted into this hyperspace using the values of the predictor variables at these localities (the prediction dataset). The Euclidean distance from any locality to the origin of the hyperspace gives a measure of the ‘centrality’ of that locality in the hyperspace. These distances are used to derive probability values for each grid cell in the map region. The modelling technique was applied to bioclimatic data to predict bioclimatic suitability for three alien invasive plant species (Lantana camara L., Ricinus communis L. and Solanum mauritianum Scop.) in South Africa, Lesotho and Swaziland. The models were tested against independent test records by calculating area under the curve (AUC) values of receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves and kappa statistics. There was good agreement between the models and the independent test records. The pre‐processing of climatic variable data to reduce the deleterious effects of multicollinearity, and the use of stopping rules to prevent overfitting of the models are important aspects of the modelling process.
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Discriminant analysis of the honeybee populations of southwestern Africa

- Radloff, Sarah E, Hepburn, H Randall, Robertson, Mark P, Van Hille, Robert P, Davidson, Z, Villet, Martin H

  • Authors: Radloff, Sarah E , Hepburn, H Randall , Robertson, Mark P , Van Hille, Robert P , Davidson, Z , Villet, Martin H
  • Date: 1996
  • Subjects: To be catalogued
  • Language: English
  • Type: text , article
  • Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/451370 , vital:75044 , https://hdl.handle.net/10520/AJA10213589_176
  • Description: The morphometric characters and sting pheromones of worker honeybees, Apis mellifera Linnaeus, were analysed by multivariate methods to characterize their populations in southwestern Africa. There is a discrete homogeneous population in northern South Africa and southern Namibia recognized as the subspecies A m. scutellata, a discrete population in northern Namibia recognized as A m. adansonii and a hybrid population between them.
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