The existence of the value premium on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange from 1972 to 2001 and extrapolation as explanation
- Authors: Beukes, Anna
- Date: 2011
- Subjects: Johannesburg Stock Exchange Stocks -- Prices -- South Africa Rational expectations (Economic theory) Investments -- Psychological aspects
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Doctoral , PhD
- Identifier: vital:977 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002711
- Description: This study investigates the existence of the value premium in South Africa’s equity market, and tests extrapolation as a possible explanation for it. The value premium refers to the widely reported superior performance of share price returns of value companies compared to growth companies. The value premium represents an anomaly in mainstream rational finance theory, because it should not persist, unless it could be explained as the result of some composite form of risk. What is highly vexing is the fact that the value premium not only persists in most financial markets over a long period, but that the risk explanation cannot be upheld convincingly. This contributed to the rise of behavioral finance, an approach which introduces psychological factors to provide new explanations for financial phenomena. The behavioral finance explanation for the value premium observation is extrapolation (the tendency to project recent experience too far into the future). This study applies propositions and methods from behavioral finance to investigate the South African equity market. The existence of a value premium in South Africa was investigated by using twenty-nine years’ worth of accounting and share price data. The study employed one- and two-dimensional tests for portfolio formation, and tracked share price returns for up to five years after portfolio formation. The results indicated that a statistically and economically significant value premium existed in South Africa for the period between 1972 and 2001. Extrapolation as a potential explanation for the value premium observation was investigated by applying internationally used methods. Extrapolation was found to provide a robust explanation for the South African value premium.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2011
- Authors: Beukes, Anna
- Date: 2011
- Subjects: Johannesburg Stock Exchange Stocks -- Prices -- South Africa Rational expectations (Economic theory) Investments -- Psychological aspects
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Doctoral , PhD
- Identifier: vital:977 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002711
- Description: This study investigates the existence of the value premium in South Africa’s equity market, and tests extrapolation as a possible explanation for it. The value premium refers to the widely reported superior performance of share price returns of value companies compared to growth companies. The value premium represents an anomaly in mainstream rational finance theory, because it should not persist, unless it could be explained as the result of some composite form of risk. What is highly vexing is the fact that the value premium not only persists in most financial markets over a long period, but that the risk explanation cannot be upheld convincingly. This contributed to the rise of behavioral finance, an approach which introduces psychological factors to provide new explanations for financial phenomena. The behavioral finance explanation for the value premium observation is extrapolation (the tendency to project recent experience too far into the future). This study applies propositions and methods from behavioral finance to investigate the South African equity market. The existence of a value premium in South Africa was investigated by using twenty-nine years’ worth of accounting and share price data. The study employed one- and two-dimensional tests for portfolio formation, and tracked share price returns for up to five years after portfolio formation. The results indicated that a statistically and economically significant value premium existed in South Africa for the period between 1972 and 2001. Extrapolation as a potential explanation for the value premium observation was investigated by applying internationally used methods. Extrapolation was found to provide a robust explanation for the South African value premium.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2011
Habitat segregation in competing species of intertidal mussels in South Africa
- Authors: Bownes, Sarah
- Date: 2006
- Subjects: Mussels -- South Africa Mussels -- Growth Mussels -- Habitat -- South Africa Mussels -- Larvae Perna -- South Africa Mytilus galloprovincialis -- South Africa Choromytilus meridionalis -- South Africa Mytilidae -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Doctoral , PhD
- Identifier: vital:5706 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1005392
- Description: Mytilus galloprovincialis is invasive on rocky shores on the west coast of South Africa where it has become the dominant intertidal mussel. The success of this species on the west coast and its superior competitive abilities, have led to concern that it may become invasive on the south coast at the expense of the indigenous mussel Perna perna. On shores where these species co-occur, there appears to be habitat segregation among zones occupied by mussels. M.galloprovincialis dominates the high-shore and P.perna the low-shore, with a mixed zone at mid-shore level. This study examined the factors responsible for these differences in distribution and abundance. The study was conducted in Plettenberg Bay and Tsitsikamma (70km apart) on the south coast of South Africa. Each site included two randomly selected locations (300-400m apart). A third mussel species, Choromytilus meridionalis, is found in large numbers at the sand/rock interface at one location in Plettenberg Bay. Aspects of settlement, recruitment, growth and mortality of juvenile and adult mussels were examined at different tidal heights at each site. Quantitative analysis of mussel population structure at these sites supported the initial observation of vertical habitat segregation. Post-larvae were identified to species and this was confirmed using hinge morphology and mitochondrial DNA analysis. Size at settlement was determined for each species to differentiate between primary and secondary settlement. Adult distribution of C.meridionalis was primarily determined by settlement, which was highly selective in this species. Settlement, recruitment and growth of P.perna decreased with increasing tidal height, while post-settlement mortality and adult mortality increased higher upshore. Thus all aspects of P.perna’s life history contribute to the adult distribution of this species. Presumably, the abundance of P.perna on the high-shore is initially limited by recruitment while those that survive remain prone to elimination throughout adulthood. M.galloprovincialis displayed the same patterns of settlement and recruitment as P.perna. However, post-settlement mortality in this species was consistently low in the low and high zones. Juvenile growth also decreased upshore, suggesting that M.galloprovincialis may be able to maintain high densities on the high-shore through the persistence of successive settlements of slow-growing individuals. The low cover of M.galloprovincialis on the lowshore appeared to be determined by adult interactions. M.galloprovincialis experienced significantly higher adult mortality rates than P.perna in this zone. There were seasonal variations in the competitive advantages enjoyed by each species through growth, recruitment or mortality on the low-shore. In summer, P.perna had higher recruitment rates, faster growth and lower mortality rates, while M.galloprovincialis had slightly higher recruitment rates and faster growth rates in winter. P.perna is a warm water species while M.galloprovincialis thrives on the cold-temperate west coast of South Africa. Therefore both species appear to be at the edge of their optimal temperature regimes on the south coast, which may explain the seasonal advantages of each. Nevertheless, P.perna has maintained spatial dominance on the low-shore suggesting that it may ultimately be the winner in competition between these species. M.galloprovincialis appears to have a refuge from competition with P.perna on the high-shore due to its greater tolerance of desiccation stress, while being competitively excluded from the low-shore. Warm water temperatures coupled with poor recruitment rates at most sites may limit the success of M.galloprovincialis on this coast.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2006
- Authors: Bownes, Sarah
- Date: 2006
- Subjects: Mussels -- South Africa Mussels -- Growth Mussels -- Habitat -- South Africa Mussels -- Larvae Perna -- South Africa Mytilus galloprovincialis -- South Africa Choromytilus meridionalis -- South Africa Mytilidae -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Doctoral , PhD
- Identifier: vital:5706 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1005392
- Description: Mytilus galloprovincialis is invasive on rocky shores on the west coast of South Africa where it has become the dominant intertidal mussel. The success of this species on the west coast and its superior competitive abilities, have led to concern that it may become invasive on the south coast at the expense of the indigenous mussel Perna perna. On shores where these species co-occur, there appears to be habitat segregation among zones occupied by mussels. M.galloprovincialis dominates the high-shore and P.perna the low-shore, with a mixed zone at mid-shore level. This study examined the factors responsible for these differences in distribution and abundance. The study was conducted in Plettenberg Bay and Tsitsikamma (70km apart) on the south coast of South Africa. Each site included two randomly selected locations (300-400m apart). A third mussel species, Choromytilus meridionalis, is found in large numbers at the sand/rock interface at one location in Plettenberg Bay. Aspects of settlement, recruitment, growth and mortality of juvenile and adult mussels were examined at different tidal heights at each site. Quantitative analysis of mussel population structure at these sites supported the initial observation of vertical habitat segregation. Post-larvae were identified to species and this was confirmed using hinge morphology and mitochondrial DNA analysis. Size at settlement was determined for each species to differentiate between primary and secondary settlement. Adult distribution of C.meridionalis was primarily determined by settlement, which was highly selective in this species. Settlement, recruitment and growth of P.perna decreased with increasing tidal height, while post-settlement mortality and adult mortality increased higher upshore. Thus all aspects of P.perna’s life history contribute to the adult distribution of this species. Presumably, the abundance of P.perna on the high-shore is initially limited by recruitment while those that survive remain prone to elimination throughout adulthood. M.galloprovincialis displayed the same patterns of settlement and recruitment as P.perna. However, post-settlement mortality in this species was consistently low in the low and high zones. Juvenile growth also decreased upshore, suggesting that M.galloprovincialis may be able to maintain high densities on the high-shore through the persistence of successive settlements of slow-growing individuals. The low cover of M.galloprovincialis on the lowshore appeared to be determined by adult interactions. M.galloprovincialis experienced significantly higher adult mortality rates than P.perna in this zone. There were seasonal variations in the competitive advantages enjoyed by each species through growth, recruitment or mortality on the low-shore. In summer, P.perna had higher recruitment rates, faster growth and lower mortality rates, while M.galloprovincialis had slightly higher recruitment rates and faster growth rates in winter. P.perna is a warm water species while M.galloprovincialis thrives on the cold-temperate west coast of South Africa. Therefore both species appear to be at the edge of their optimal temperature regimes on the south coast, which may explain the seasonal advantages of each. Nevertheless, P.perna has maintained spatial dominance on the low-shore suggesting that it may ultimately be the winner in competition between these species. M.galloprovincialis appears to have a refuge from competition with P.perna on the high-shore due to its greater tolerance of desiccation stress, while being competitively excluded from the low-shore. Warm water temperatures coupled with poor recruitment rates at most sites may limit the success of M.galloprovincialis on this coast.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2006
Operationally defining sexual orientation : towards the development of a fundamental measure of adolescent sexual responsiveness variations
- Authors: Heath, Lance Julian
- Date: 2005
- Subjects: Sexual orientation Homosexuality Psychometrics Teenagers--Sexual behavior
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Doctoral , PhD
- Identifier: vital:1681 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1003564
- Description: Much published work has pointed to the need for the development of a sound operational definition of sexual orientation in order to enable the research in this area to progress. To contribute to this process the current research set out to develop two measures of sexual orientation and examine their psychometric properties. In order to develop relevant tools historical, conceptual and operational definitions of sexual orientation were critically examined and standard questionnaire development techniques applied. The first scale consisted of 32 items and was administered to a total of 835 adolescents, comprising three sub-groups (189 Grade 11 Scholars, 547 First Year and 99 Third Year Psychology Students). A Cronbach alpha coefficient of 0.85 was calculated indicating that this instrument had very good internal consistency reliability. Similar factors emerged in each of the sample sub-groups when factor analyses were performed suggesting that this instrument has good external and construct validities. These factors each had respectable Cronbach alpha coefficients indicating their own internal consistency. The four factors which consistently emerged were Same Sex Responsiveness, Opposite Sex Responsiveness, Previous Month’s Same Sex Responsiveness and Previous Month’s Opposite Sex Responsiveness. The second scale consisted of 16 items and was administered to 646 adolescents, comprising the latter two sub-groups referred to above. A Cronbach alpha coefficient of 0.82 was calculated indicating that this instrument also had very good internal consistency reliability. Once again similar factors with generally good internal consistency emerged in factor analysis suggesting that this too was a valid instrument. The factors that emerged from the second scale were Same Sex Responsiveness, Unattractive Opposite Sex Responsiveness, Attractive Opposite Sex Responsiveness and Attraction. Future developments, adjustments and applications of the instruments as well as implications for the arena of sexual orientation research are discussed. In the light of the dearth of information with regard to the sexual orientations of South African adolescents the current study also briefly explored and presented the sample’s responses in terms of the dimensions of each questionnaire as well as how each emerging factor related to the demographics (education level, gender, sexual orientation self-label and age) of the sample.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2005
- Authors: Heath, Lance Julian
- Date: 2005
- Subjects: Sexual orientation Homosexuality Psychometrics Teenagers--Sexual behavior
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Doctoral , PhD
- Identifier: vital:1681 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1003564
- Description: Much published work has pointed to the need for the development of a sound operational definition of sexual orientation in order to enable the research in this area to progress. To contribute to this process the current research set out to develop two measures of sexual orientation and examine their psychometric properties. In order to develop relevant tools historical, conceptual and operational definitions of sexual orientation were critically examined and standard questionnaire development techniques applied. The first scale consisted of 32 items and was administered to a total of 835 adolescents, comprising three sub-groups (189 Grade 11 Scholars, 547 First Year and 99 Third Year Psychology Students). A Cronbach alpha coefficient of 0.85 was calculated indicating that this instrument had very good internal consistency reliability. Similar factors emerged in each of the sample sub-groups when factor analyses were performed suggesting that this instrument has good external and construct validities. These factors each had respectable Cronbach alpha coefficients indicating their own internal consistency. The four factors which consistently emerged were Same Sex Responsiveness, Opposite Sex Responsiveness, Previous Month’s Same Sex Responsiveness and Previous Month’s Opposite Sex Responsiveness. The second scale consisted of 16 items and was administered to 646 adolescents, comprising the latter two sub-groups referred to above. A Cronbach alpha coefficient of 0.82 was calculated indicating that this instrument also had very good internal consistency reliability. Once again similar factors with generally good internal consistency emerged in factor analysis suggesting that this too was a valid instrument. The factors that emerged from the second scale were Same Sex Responsiveness, Unattractive Opposite Sex Responsiveness, Attractive Opposite Sex Responsiveness and Attraction. Future developments, adjustments and applications of the instruments as well as implications for the arena of sexual orientation research are discussed. In the light of the dearth of information with regard to the sexual orientations of South African adolescents the current study also briefly explored and presented the sample’s responses in terms of the dimensions of each questionnaire as well as how each emerging factor related to the demographics (education level, gender, sexual orientation self-label and age) of the sample.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2005
Share-net: a case study of environmental education resource material development in a risk society
- Authors: Taylor, Robert James
- Date: 1997
- Subjects: Environmental education Environmental education -- South Africa Environmental education -- Activity programs -- South Africa Environmental education -- South Africa -- Information resources
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Doctoral , PhD
- Identifier: vital:1765 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1003650
- Description: This narrative study reviews the development of Share-Net, an informal resource materials network, located within the developing environmental education activities of the Wildlife and Environment Society of South Africa. Historical shaping factors within the Society are discussed and changing views on conservation, environmental education and research are described. Rather than the research process being a utilitarian and outside endeavour for clarifying and monitoring, the research orientation of this study is one of grounded activity within and integrally part of processes of change. Within a developing story of resource materials and workshops, themes are traced and emergent tensions are critically reviewed. Teacher workshops from 1981 until 1995 are analysed and developing orientations are described. Within this review changes are evident from an orientation of 'us' informing 'them' to joint, collaborative endeavours within the development and use of resource materials. The study reviews and illuminates the Share-Net project around questions of project orientation and management and this is done through the narration of case studies. Principles and patterns emerging within these are examined to guide future resource development projects. Popularist notions of networking and structural functionalist notions of social change are also examined. Grand, modernist strategies designed to cause change in others are questioned and the role of small-scale nodes of resource material activity cooperating within an open network are clarified as useful alternatives. Local resourcing centres such as these have proved useful in supporting teachers in the development, use and adaptation of resource materials. The study also examines income and expenditure of the Share-Net project since 1988 to review economic sustainability. A case is made for sustaining the project conceptually and financially through the sales of products and services rather than through external donor sources. Finally the study raises questions and challenges within the project and proposes guiding frameworks for future review, in action, as the story continues.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 1997
- Authors: Taylor, Robert James
- Date: 1997
- Subjects: Environmental education Environmental education -- South Africa Environmental education -- Activity programs -- South Africa Environmental education -- South Africa -- Information resources
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Doctoral , PhD
- Identifier: vital:1765 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1003650
- Description: This narrative study reviews the development of Share-Net, an informal resource materials network, located within the developing environmental education activities of the Wildlife and Environment Society of South Africa. Historical shaping factors within the Society are discussed and changing views on conservation, environmental education and research are described. Rather than the research process being a utilitarian and outside endeavour for clarifying and monitoring, the research orientation of this study is one of grounded activity within and integrally part of processes of change. Within a developing story of resource materials and workshops, themes are traced and emergent tensions are critically reviewed. Teacher workshops from 1981 until 1995 are analysed and developing orientations are described. Within this review changes are evident from an orientation of 'us' informing 'them' to joint, collaborative endeavours within the development and use of resource materials. The study reviews and illuminates the Share-Net project around questions of project orientation and management and this is done through the narration of case studies. Principles and patterns emerging within these are examined to guide future resource development projects. Popularist notions of networking and structural functionalist notions of social change are also examined. Grand, modernist strategies designed to cause change in others are questioned and the role of small-scale nodes of resource material activity cooperating within an open network are clarified as useful alternatives. Local resourcing centres such as these have proved useful in supporting teachers in the development, use and adaptation of resource materials. The study also examines income and expenditure of the Share-Net project since 1988 to review economic sustainability. A case is made for sustaining the project conceptually and financially through the sales of products and services rather than through external donor sources. Finally the study raises questions and challenges within the project and proposes guiding frameworks for future review, in action, as the story continues.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 1997
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