Money supply endogeneity : an empirical investigation of South African data (2000Q1-2011Q4)
- Authors: Schady, Stuart William
- Date: 2013 , 2013-04-29
- Subjects: Monetary policy -- South Africa , Inflation targeting -- South Africa , Gross domestic product -- South Africa , Bank loans -- South Africa , Money supply -- South Africa , Endogenous growth (Economics) , Domestic credit extension
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:928 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1001454 , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Inflation targeting -- South Africa , Gross domestic product -- South Africa , Bank loans -- South Africa , Money supply -- South Africa , Endogenous growth (Economics)
- Description: This study is about whether the money supply in South Africa under a monetary policy regime of inflation‐targeting is exogenously or endogenously determined. The proposition of an exogenous money supply has been offered by monetarists, where the Central Bank determines the quantity of money supplied to the economy and this has a causal influence on income and credit extension. The endogenous money theory is a post‐Keynesian proposition whereby the money creation is determined by banks adjusting their responses to demands for credit‐money from economic agents. The data analysis is from 2000Q1 to 2010Q4 and entails the use of the variables monetary base (MB), domestic credit extension (DCE), M3, and gross national product (GDP). All variables are logged. The empirical tests conducted start with the Augmented Dickey‐Fuller unit root test to determine the variables order of integration. Johansen cointegration tests are done followed by Vector Error‐Correction Models (VECMs) and Granger causality tests to determine whether there is unidirectional or bidirectional causality between variables over the long and short‐run. Based on the results of the testing it was discovered that over the inflation‐targeting regime money supply in South Africa was endogenously determined. Furthermore, the data best supports the Accommodationist analysis of endogenous money as opposed to that of Structuralism and Liquidity Preference , Adobe Acrobat 9.53 Paper Capture Plug-in
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- Authors: Schady, Stuart William
- Date: 2013 , 2013-04-29
- Subjects: Monetary policy -- South Africa , Inflation targeting -- South Africa , Gross domestic product -- South Africa , Bank loans -- South Africa , Money supply -- South Africa , Endogenous growth (Economics) , Domestic credit extension
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:928 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1001454 , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Inflation targeting -- South Africa , Gross domestic product -- South Africa , Bank loans -- South Africa , Money supply -- South Africa , Endogenous growth (Economics)
- Description: This study is about whether the money supply in South Africa under a monetary policy regime of inflation‐targeting is exogenously or endogenously determined. The proposition of an exogenous money supply has been offered by monetarists, where the Central Bank determines the quantity of money supplied to the economy and this has a causal influence on income and credit extension. The endogenous money theory is a post‐Keynesian proposition whereby the money creation is determined by banks adjusting their responses to demands for credit‐money from economic agents. The data analysis is from 2000Q1 to 2010Q4 and entails the use of the variables monetary base (MB), domestic credit extension (DCE), M3, and gross national product (GDP). All variables are logged. The empirical tests conducted start with the Augmented Dickey‐Fuller unit root test to determine the variables order of integration. Johansen cointegration tests are done followed by Vector Error‐Correction Models (VECMs) and Granger causality tests to determine whether there is unidirectional or bidirectional causality between variables over the long and short‐run. Based on the results of the testing it was discovered that over the inflation‐targeting regime money supply in South Africa was endogenously determined. Furthermore, the data best supports the Accommodationist analysis of endogenous money as opposed to that of Structuralism and Liquidity Preference , Adobe Acrobat 9.53 Paper Capture Plug-in
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Bank credit extension to the private sector and inflation in South Africa
- Authors: Dlamini, Samuel Nkosinathi
- Date: 2009
- Subjects: Bank loans -- South Africa , Inflation (Finance) -- South Africa , Money supply -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Banks and banking -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:959 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002693 , Bank loans -- South Africa , Inflation (Finance) -- South Africa , Money supply -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Banks and banking -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa
- Description: This study investigates the contribution of bank credit extension to the private sector to inflation in South Africa, covering the period 1970:1-2006:4. The long-run impact of bank credit on inflation is investigated by means of the Johansen co integration model. The short-run ynamics of the inflation is subsequently modelled by means of the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). Using the Johansen methodology, the study identifies two co integrating equations linking inflation and its eterminants. The results suggest that the long-run relationship between inflation and bank credit to the private sector is negative and statistically significant at 10% level. The determinants that are significant at 5% level are: money supply, real gross domestic product, the money market rate, rand/dollar exchange rate and imports. The results are consistent with previous findings. The speed of adjustment in response to deviation from the equilibrium path was found to be negative at 10.56% per quarter, which is consistent with findings by Ohnsorge and Oomes (2003) for Russia. Both the signs and the magnitude of the coefficients suggest that the co integrating vector describes a long-run inflation equation. The impulse response functions confirm the theoretical expectations except for the import prices. The most persistent and significant shocks observed are on impulse response functions of money supply and bank credit to the private sector. The variance decomposition results also suggest that inflation responds quicker to innovations from money supply and the money market rate. The overall results provide evidence that the surge in inflation is associated with an increase in money supply as well as the instability in exchange rate. The effects of exchange rate fluctuation on inflation are reflected through changes in import prices. Based on the results we conclude that an increase in bank credit during the period 1970:1-2006:4 had a negative mpact on inflation in South Africa.
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- Authors: Dlamini, Samuel Nkosinathi
- Date: 2009
- Subjects: Bank loans -- South Africa , Inflation (Finance) -- South Africa , Money supply -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Banks and banking -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:959 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002693 , Bank loans -- South Africa , Inflation (Finance) -- South Africa , Money supply -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Banks and banking -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa
- Description: This study investigates the contribution of bank credit extension to the private sector to inflation in South Africa, covering the period 1970:1-2006:4. The long-run impact of bank credit on inflation is investigated by means of the Johansen co integration model. The short-run ynamics of the inflation is subsequently modelled by means of the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). Using the Johansen methodology, the study identifies two co integrating equations linking inflation and its eterminants. The results suggest that the long-run relationship between inflation and bank credit to the private sector is negative and statistically significant at 10% level. The determinants that are significant at 5% level are: money supply, real gross domestic product, the money market rate, rand/dollar exchange rate and imports. The results are consistent with previous findings. The speed of adjustment in response to deviation from the equilibrium path was found to be negative at 10.56% per quarter, which is consistent with findings by Ohnsorge and Oomes (2003) for Russia. Both the signs and the magnitude of the coefficients suggest that the co integrating vector describes a long-run inflation equation. The impulse response functions confirm the theoretical expectations except for the import prices. The most persistent and significant shocks observed are on impulse response functions of money supply and bank credit to the private sector. The variance decomposition results also suggest that inflation responds quicker to innovations from money supply and the money market rate. The overall results provide evidence that the surge in inflation is associated with an increase in money supply as well as the instability in exchange rate. The effects of exchange rate fluctuation on inflation are reflected through changes in import prices. Based on the results we conclude that an increase in bank credit during the period 1970:1-2006:4 had a negative mpact on inflation in South Africa.
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The role of bank finance in small firm growth : a case study
- Authors: Musengi, Sandra
- Date: 2003
- Subjects: Banks and banking -- South Africa , Finance -- South Africa , Small business -- South Africa -- Finance , Small business -- South Africa -- Growth -- Case studies , Entrepreneurship -- South Africa , New business enterprises -- South Africa , Bank loans -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1176 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002793 , Banks and banking -- South Africa , Finance -- South Africa , Small business -- South Africa -- Finance , Small business -- South Africa -- Growth -- Case studies , Entrepreneurship -- South Africa , New business enterprises -- South Africa , Bank loans -- South Africa
- Description: The debate concerning small firm access to finance continues. The proliferation of research of the issue underlines the importance attached in promoting a strong entrepreneurial culture within a country. Small firms are significant to economic growth if they are growing. Central to this significance is ascertaining the role of finance and in particular bank finance in accelerating small growth potential. The case study, through its ontological, epistemological and methodological position, draws on a document review and interview material from small firm owners and key informants to explore the role of bank finance in small firm growth. Case study evidence reveals that small firm owners do not intend to finance firm growth with bank finance but prefer to finance growth with internally generated funds. The owners indicate that non-financial and behavioural factors, such as, maintaining decision-making control, experience accessing bank finance, the perception of the banking relationship and growth aspirations of owners may be more important in dertermining the finance structure for firm growth. From the bank's perspective, findings suggest that risk assessment, financial viability of the enterprise and provision of collateral are more important in the lending decisions; findings supported by an analysis of selected documents. The small sample of small firm owners, bank representatives, experts and documents makes it difficult to generalize the findings. However, the findings are significant because exploring the issue from different perspectives presents invaluable insights, which can be investigated further to assist small firm owners, to develop finance products geared for small firm operations, and in the development of the knowledge base on finance-related issues in the South African context.
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- Authors: Musengi, Sandra
- Date: 2003
- Subjects: Banks and banking -- South Africa , Finance -- South Africa , Small business -- South Africa -- Finance , Small business -- South Africa -- Growth -- Case studies , Entrepreneurship -- South Africa , New business enterprises -- South Africa , Bank loans -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1176 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002793 , Banks and banking -- South Africa , Finance -- South Africa , Small business -- South Africa -- Finance , Small business -- South Africa -- Growth -- Case studies , Entrepreneurship -- South Africa , New business enterprises -- South Africa , Bank loans -- South Africa
- Description: The debate concerning small firm access to finance continues. The proliferation of research of the issue underlines the importance attached in promoting a strong entrepreneurial culture within a country. Small firms are significant to economic growth if they are growing. Central to this significance is ascertaining the role of finance and in particular bank finance in accelerating small growth potential. The case study, through its ontological, epistemological and methodological position, draws on a document review and interview material from small firm owners and key informants to explore the role of bank finance in small firm growth. Case study evidence reveals that small firm owners do not intend to finance firm growth with bank finance but prefer to finance growth with internally generated funds. The owners indicate that non-financial and behavioural factors, such as, maintaining decision-making control, experience accessing bank finance, the perception of the banking relationship and growth aspirations of owners may be more important in dertermining the finance structure for firm growth. From the bank's perspective, findings suggest that risk assessment, financial viability of the enterprise and provision of collateral are more important in the lending decisions; findings supported by an analysis of selected documents. The small sample of small firm owners, bank representatives, experts and documents makes it difficult to generalize the findings. However, the findings are significant because exploring the issue from different perspectives presents invaluable insights, which can be investigated further to assist small firm owners, to develop finance products geared for small firm operations, and in the development of the knowledge base on finance-related issues in the South African context.
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