The effect of real exchange rate volatility on export performance: evidence from South Africa (2000-2011)
- Authors: Chamunorwa, Wilson
- Date: 2014
- Subjects: Monetary policy -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , M Com
- Identifier: vital:11499 , http://hdl.handle.net/10353/d1018600 , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa
- Description: The effect of real exchange rate volatility on export performance: evidence from South Africa (2000-2011) This study sought to investigate the relationship between exchange rate volatility and export performance in South Africa. The main objective of the study was to examine the impact of exchange rate volatility on export performance in South Africa. This relationship was examined using GARCH methods. Exports were regressed against real effective exchange rate, trade openness and capacity utilisation. The research aimed to establish whether exchange rate volatility impacts negatively on export performance in the manner suggested by the econometric model. The result obtained showed that exchange rate volatility had a significantly negative effect on South African exports in the period 2000-2011.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2014
- Authors: Chamunorwa, Wilson
- Date: 2014
- Subjects: Monetary policy -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , M Com
- Identifier: vital:11499 , http://hdl.handle.net/10353/d1018600 , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa
- Description: The effect of real exchange rate volatility on export performance: evidence from South Africa (2000-2011) This study sought to investigate the relationship between exchange rate volatility and export performance in South Africa. The main objective of the study was to examine the impact of exchange rate volatility on export performance in South Africa. This relationship was examined using GARCH methods. Exports were regressed against real effective exchange rate, trade openness and capacity utilisation. The research aimed to establish whether exchange rate volatility impacts negatively on export performance in the manner suggested by the econometric model. The result obtained showed that exchange rate volatility had a significantly negative effect on South African exports in the period 2000-2011.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2014
The impact of oil price changes on selected economic indicators in South Africa
- Authors: Vellem, Nomtha
- Date: 2014
- Subjects: Petroleum industry and trade -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa , Interest rate futures -- South Africa , Economic indicators -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , M Com
- Identifier: vital:11485 , http://hdl.handle.net/10353/d1017862 , Petroleum industry and trade -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa , Interest rate futures -- South Africa , Economic indicators -- South Africa
- Description: The study examines the effect of oil price changes on selected economic indicators in South Africa. A VAR-5 model was applied to quarterly data of 1990:Q1-2012:Q4 estimating the impulse response functions, variance decomposition and Granger-causality tests. The findings allow for a conclusion that oil significantly affects the exchange rate and an inverse link between oil and GDP exists. A unidirectional relation is found where oil Granger-causes the exchange rate and GDP Granger-causes oil in South Africa.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2014
- Authors: Vellem, Nomtha
- Date: 2014
- Subjects: Petroleum industry and trade -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa , Interest rate futures -- South Africa , Economic indicators -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , M Com
- Identifier: vital:11485 , http://hdl.handle.net/10353/d1017862 , Petroleum industry and trade -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa , Interest rate futures -- South Africa , Economic indicators -- South Africa
- Description: The study examines the effect of oil price changes on selected economic indicators in South Africa. A VAR-5 model was applied to quarterly data of 1990:Q1-2012:Q4 estimating the impulse response functions, variance decomposition and Granger-causality tests. The findings allow for a conclusion that oil significantly affects the exchange rate and an inverse link between oil and GDP exists. A unidirectional relation is found where oil Granger-causes the exchange rate and GDP Granger-causes oil in South Africa.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2014
The functioning of the interbank market and its significance in the transmission of monetary policy
- Authors: De Angelis, Catherine
- Date: 2013-06-11
- Subjects: South African Reserve Bank , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa , Money market -- South Africa , Banks and banking -- South Africa , Repurchase agreements -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic policy , South Africa -- Economic conditions
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1075 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1008054 , South African Reserve Bank , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa , Money market -- South Africa , Banks and banking -- South Africa , Repurchase agreements -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic policy , South Africa -- Economic conditions
- Description: Monetary policy in South African is the primary means by which the authorities can influence activity in the overall economy. The South African Reserve Bank accommodates banks through repo transactions for which they charge the repo rate. The most important market in the transmission of the repo rate to the rest of the economy is the interbank market. As such, a detailed discussion of this market is given. In September 200 I the monetary authorities made certain adjustments to the repo system of accommodation, which included changing the repo rate from a floating rate to a fixed rate that would be administratively determined by the MPC. This was done to address certain weaknesses in the floating rate system. This thesis examines and compares the period before and after the adjustments to the repo system, with the aim of determining whether or not the monetary authorities achieved the goals intended from making this change. The repo rate, prime interbank rate, 3-month NCO rate and the prime lending rate are analysed using the Engle-Granger two variable approach and an ECM model to test for causality. It was found that the monetary authorities did not achieve their intended goals as the relationship between the repo rate and the interbank rate was more significant in the first period. Furthermore, the direction of causality the authorities hoped to achieve by implementing the changes were in fact already in place. As such the adjustments to the system changed the transmission mechanism from the one desired by the authorities to one that was not intended. The conclusions reached by this study show that, in terms of the objectives of the monetary authorities, the previous repo system functioned better. , KMBT_363 , Adobe Acrobat 9.54 Paper Capture Plug-in
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- Authors: De Angelis, Catherine
- Date: 2013-06-11
- Subjects: South African Reserve Bank , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa , Money market -- South Africa , Banks and banking -- South Africa , Repurchase agreements -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic policy , South Africa -- Economic conditions
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1075 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1008054 , South African Reserve Bank , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa , Money market -- South Africa , Banks and banking -- South Africa , Repurchase agreements -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic policy , South Africa -- Economic conditions
- Description: Monetary policy in South African is the primary means by which the authorities can influence activity in the overall economy. The South African Reserve Bank accommodates banks through repo transactions for which they charge the repo rate. The most important market in the transmission of the repo rate to the rest of the economy is the interbank market. As such, a detailed discussion of this market is given. In September 200 I the monetary authorities made certain adjustments to the repo system of accommodation, which included changing the repo rate from a floating rate to a fixed rate that would be administratively determined by the MPC. This was done to address certain weaknesses in the floating rate system. This thesis examines and compares the period before and after the adjustments to the repo system, with the aim of determining whether or not the monetary authorities achieved the goals intended from making this change. The repo rate, prime interbank rate, 3-month NCO rate and the prime lending rate are analysed using the Engle-Granger two variable approach and an ECM model to test for causality. It was found that the monetary authorities did not achieve their intended goals as the relationship between the repo rate and the interbank rate was more significant in the first period. Furthermore, the direction of causality the authorities hoped to achieve by implementing the changes were in fact already in place. As such the adjustments to the system changed the transmission mechanism from the one desired by the authorities to one that was not intended. The conclusions reached by this study show that, in terms of the objectives of the monetary authorities, the previous repo system functioned better. , KMBT_363 , Adobe Acrobat 9.54 Paper Capture Plug-in
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Effects of exchange rate volatility on the stock market: a case study of South Africa
- Authors: Mlambo, Courage
- Date: 2013
- Subjects: Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa , Currency question -- South Africa , Free trade -- South Africa , Capital movements -- South Africa , Cointegration -- South Africa , Investments, Foreign , International trade , Stock exchanges -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic policy
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , M Com
- Identifier: vital:11468 , http://hdl.handle.net/10353/d1007125 , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa , Currency question -- South Africa , Free trade -- South Africa , Capital movements -- South Africa , Cointegration -- South Africa , Investments, Foreign , International trade , Stock exchanges -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic policy
- Description: This study assessed the effects of currency volatility on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange. An evaluation of literature on exchange rate volatility and stock markets was conducted resulting into specification of an empirical model.The Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedascity (1.1) (GARCH) model was used in establishing the relationship between exchange rate volatility and stock market performance. The study employed monthly South African data for the period 2000 – 2010. The data frequency selected ensured an adequate number of observations. A very weak relationship between currency volatility and the stock market was confirmed. The research finding is supported by previous studies. Prime overdraft rate and total mining production were found to have a negative impact on Market capitalisation. Surprisingly, US interest rates were found to have a positive impact on Market capitalisation. This study recommended that, since the South African stock market is not really exposed to the negative effects of currency volatility, government can use exchange rate as a policy tool to attract foreign portfolio investment. The weak relationship between currency volatility and the stock market suggests that the JSE can be marketed as a safe market for foreign investors. However, investors, bankers and portfolio managers still need to be vigilant in regard to the spillovers from the foreign exchange rate into the stock market. Although there is a weak relationship between rand volatility and the stock market in South Africa, this does not necessarily mean that investors and portfolio managers need not monitor the developments between these two variables.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2013
- Authors: Mlambo, Courage
- Date: 2013
- Subjects: Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa , Currency question -- South Africa , Free trade -- South Africa , Capital movements -- South Africa , Cointegration -- South Africa , Investments, Foreign , International trade , Stock exchanges -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic policy
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , M Com
- Identifier: vital:11468 , http://hdl.handle.net/10353/d1007125 , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa , Currency question -- South Africa , Free trade -- South Africa , Capital movements -- South Africa , Cointegration -- South Africa , Investments, Foreign , International trade , Stock exchanges -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic policy
- Description: This study assessed the effects of currency volatility on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange. An evaluation of literature on exchange rate volatility and stock markets was conducted resulting into specification of an empirical model.The Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedascity (1.1) (GARCH) model was used in establishing the relationship between exchange rate volatility and stock market performance. The study employed monthly South African data for the period 2000 – 2010. The data frequency selected ensured an adequate number of observations. A very weak relationship between currency volatility and the stock market was confirmed. The research finding is supported by previous studies. Prime overdraft rate and total mining production were found to have a negative impact on Market capitalisation. Surprisingly, US interest rates were found to have a positive impact on Market capitalisation. This study recommended that, since the South African stock market is not really exposed to the negative effects of currency volatility, government can use exchange rate as a policy tool to attract foreign portfolio investment. The weak relationship between currency volatility and the stock market suggests that the JSE can be marketed as a safe market for foreign investors. However, investors, bankers and portfolio managers still need to be vigilant in regard to the spillovers from the foreign exchange rate into the stock market. Although there is a weak relationship between rand volatility and the stock market in South Africa, this does not necessarily mean that investors and portfolio managers need not monitor the developments between these two variables.
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- Date Issued: 2013
Exchange rates and economic growth in emerging economies: the case of South Africa
- Authors: Sibanda, Bornapart
- Date: 2012
- Subjects: Economic development , Currency convertibility -- South Africa , Foreign exchange -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa , Foreign exchange administration -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic conditions
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , M Com
- Identifier: vital:11464 , http://hdl.handle.net/10353/d1007045 , Economic development , Currency convertibility -- South Africa , Foreign exchange -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa , Foreign exchange administration -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic conditions
- Description: This study examines the impact of exchange rate volatility and misalignment on economic growth in South Africa. It applies the Johansen co integration test and the vector error correction model on quarterly data for the period 1990:01-2010:04. Exchange rate volatility is measured as the standard deviation of both the nominal and nominal effective exchange rate. The study constructs three measures of exchange rate misalignment, with two of the measures constructed using the Producer Price Index and Consumer Price index based Purchasing Power Parity. The third measure was based on the difference between the nominal and effective exchange rate. Contrary to pre-dominant findings in the exchange rate literature, the study finds a positive and significant relationship between exchange rate volatility and economic growth and attributes it to composition of the country’s exports that are largely made up of commodities that act as essential inputs in many production processes. As a result, the variability of prices caused by exchange rate volatility is not expected to deter demand for these commodities. A negative and significant relationship between exchange rate misalignment and economic growth was found. The findings of the study show that it is important for monetary authorities to ensure that the exchange rate is always at an appropriate level in order to avoid the negative implications of exchange rate misalignment on economic growth.
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- Date Issued: 2012
- Authors: Sibanda, Bornapart
- Date: 2012
- Subjects: Economic development , Currency convertibility -- South Africa , Foreign exchange -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa , Foreign exchange administration -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic conditions
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , M Com
- Identifier: vital:11464 , http://hdl.handle.net/10353/d1007045 , Economic development , Currency convertibility -- South Africa , Foreign exchange -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa , Foreign exchange administration -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic conditions
- Description: This study examines the impact of exchange rate volatility and misalignment on economic growth in South Africa. It applies the Johansen co integration test and the vector error correction model on quarterly data for the period 1990:01-2010:04. Exchange rate volatility is measured as the standard deviation of both the nominal and nominal effective exchange rate. The study constructs three measures of exchange rate misalignment, with two of the measures constructed using the Producer Price Index and Consumer Price index based Purchasing Power Parity. The third measure was based on the difference between the nominal and effective exchange rate. Contrary to pre-dominant findings in the exchange rate literature, the study finds a positive and significant relationship between exchange rate volatility and economic growth and attributes it to composition of the country’s exports that are largely made up of commodities that act as essential inputs in many production processes. As a result, the variability of prices caused by exchange rate volatility is not expected to deter demand for these commodities. A negative and significant relationship between exchange rate misalignment and economic growth was found. The findings of the study show that it is important for monetary authorities to ensure that the exchange rate is always at an appropriate level in order to avoid the negative implications of exchange rate misalignment on economic growth.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2012
An analysis of the money market linkages between South Africa and selected major world economies
- Authors: Barnor, Joel A
- Date: 2009
- Subjects: South African Reserve Bank , Banks and banking, Central -- South Africa , Money market -- South Africa , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa , International economic relations , Interest rates -- South Africa , Financial institutions -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:956 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002690 , South African Reserve Bank , Banks and banking, Central -- South Africa , Money market -- South Africa , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa , International economic relations , Interest rates -- South Africa , Financial institutions -- South Africa
- Description: Globalisation and financial liberalisation has increased the linkages across countries in recent times. The existence of money market links has important implications for both domestic monetary policy and for investment decisions. This study examines the linkages between South Africa’s money market and selected major international money markets. The objectives of the study are firstly to examine the links between the repo rate of South Africa and the central bank rates of the EU, Japan, UK and US. Secondly, is to compare the influence of domestic and foreign monetary policy decisions on South Africa’s money market. The third objective is to examine the long run relationship between the South African money market and the money markets of its major trading partners. Three estimation techniques are used to examine the different links. Principal components analysis, four tests of cointegration, and stationarity tests of the spreads/risk premium between South Africa’s interest rates and the interest rates of the other countries. All three techniques show that there is no long-run link between South Africa’s central bank rates and the central bank rates of the other countries. This shows that the repo rate does not depend on movements in other central bank rates. Domestic money market interest rates respond strongly to changes in the repo rate whilst showing no dependence on central bank rates of the other countries. This confirms the autonomy of the South African Reserve Bank in carrying out policy objectives. When the risk premium is accounted for under the third technique, evidence of integration is found. This indicates that the risk premium plays a crucial part in the level of integration between South Africa and the countries included in the study.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2009
- Authors: Barnor, Joel A
- Date: 2009
- Subjects: South African Reserve Bank , Banks and banking, Central -- South Africa , Money market -- South Africa , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa , International economic relations , Interest rates -- South Africa , Financial institutions -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:956 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002690 , South African Reserve Bank , Banks and banking, Central -- South Africa , Money market -- South Africa , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa , International economic relations , Interest rates -- South Africa , Financial institutions -- South Africa
- Description: Globalisation and financial liberalisation has increased the linkages across countries in recent times. The existence of money market links has important implications for both domestic monetary policy and for investment decisions. This study examines the linkages between South Africa’s money market and selected major international money markets. The objectives of the study are firstly to examine the links between the repo rate of South Africa and the central bank rates of the EU, Japan, UK and US. Secondly, is to compare the influence of domestic and foreign monetary policy decisions on South Africa’s money market. The third objective is to examine the long run relationship between the South African money market and the money markets of its major trading partners. Three estimation techniques are used to examine the different links. Principal components analysis, four tests of cointegration, and stationarity tests of the spreads/risk premium between South Africa’s interest rates and the interest rates of the other countries. All three techniques show that there is no long-run link between South Africa’s central bank rates and the central bank rates of the other countries. This shows that the repo rate does not depend on movements in other central bank rates. Domestic money market interest rates respond strongly to changes in the repo rate whilst showing no dependence on central bank rates of the other countries. This confirms the autonomy of the South African Reserve Bank in carrying out policy objectives. When the risk premium is accounted for under the third technique, evidence of integration is found. This indicates that the risk premium plays a crucial part in the level of integration between South Africa and the countries included in the study.
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- Date Issued: 2009
Bank credit extension to the private sector and inflation in South Africa
- Authors: Dlamini, Samuel Nkosinathi
- Date: 2009
- Subjects: Bank loans -- South Africa , Inflation (Finance) -- South Africa , Money supply -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Banks and banking -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:959 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002693 , Bank loans -- South Africa , Inflation (Finance) -- South Africa , Money supply -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Banks and banking -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa
- Description: This study investigates the contribution of bank credit extension to the private sector to inflation in South Africa, covering the period 1970:1-2006:4. The long-run impact of bank credit on inflation is investigated by means of the Johansen co integration model. The short-run ynamics of the inflation is subsequently modelled by means of the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). Using the Johansen methodology, the study identifies two co integrating equations linking inflation and its eterminants. The results suggest that the long-run relationship between inflation and bank credit to the private sector is negative and statistically significant at 10% level. The determinants that are significant at 5% level are: money supply, real gross domestic product, the money market rate, rand/dollar exchange rate and imports. The results are consistent with previous findings. The speed of adjustment in response to deviation from the equilibrium path was found to be negative at 10.56% per quarter, which is consistent with findings by Ohnsorge and Oomes (2003) for Russia. Both the signs and the magnitude of the coefficients suggest that the co integrating vector describes a long-run inflation equation. The impulse response functions confirm the theoretical expectations except for the import prices. The most persistent and significant shocks observed are on impulse response functions of money supply and bank credit to the private sector. The variance decomposition results also suggest that inflation responds quicker to innovations from money supply and the money market rate. The overall results provide evidence that the surge in inflation is associated with an increase in money supply as well as the instability in exchange rate. The effects of exchange rate fluctuation on inflation are reflected through changes in import prices. Based on the results we conclude that an increase in bank credit during the period 1970:1-2006:4 had a negative mpact on inflation in South Africa.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2009
- Authors: Dlamini, Samuel Nkosinathi
- Date: 2009
- Subjects: Bank loans -- South Africa , Inflation (Finance) -- South Africa , Money supply -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Banks and banking -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:959 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002693 , Bank loans -- South Africa , Inflation (Finance) -- South Africa , Money supply -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Banks and banking -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa
- Description: This study investigates the contribution of bank credit extension to the private sector to inflation in South Africa, covering the period 1970:1-2006:4. The long-run impact of bank credit on inflation is investigated by means of the Johansen co integration model. The short-run ynamics of the inflation is subsequently modelled by means of the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). Using the Johansen methodology, the study identifies two co integrating equations linking inflation and its eterminants. The results suggest that the long-run relationship between inflation and bank credit to the private sector is negative and statistically significant at 10% level. The determinants that are significant at 5% level are: money supply, real gross domestic product, the money market rate, rand/dollar exchange rate and imports. The results are consistent with previous findings. The speed of adjustment in response to deviation from the equilibrium path was found to be negative at 10.56% per quarter, which is consistent with findings by Ohnsorge and Oomes (2003) for Russia. Both the signs and the magnitude of the coefficients suggest that the co integrating vector describes a long-run inflation equation. The impulse response functions confirm the theoretical expectations except for the import prices. The most persistent and significant shocks observed are on impulse response functions of money supply and bank credit to the private sector. The variance decomposition results also suggest that inflation responds quicker to innovations from money supply and the money market rate. The overall results provide evidence that the surge in inflation is associated with an increase in money supply as well as the instability in exchange rate. The effects of exchange rate fluctuation on inflation are reflected through changes in import prices. Based on the results we conclude that an increase in bank credit during the period 1970:1-2006:4 had a negative mpact on inflation in South Africa.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2009
Bond market development in emerging economies: a case study of the Bond Exchange of South Africa (BESA)
- Authors: Hove, Tagara
- Date: 2009
- Subjects: Bond Exchange of South Africa , Bond market -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:961 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002695 , Bond Exchange of South Africa , Bond market -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa
- Description: This study looks at the development of bond markets in emerging economies and focuses on the development of the Bond Exchange of South Africa (BESA). It explores the history, structure, performance and key issues related to the development of this market within the broader context of domestic, regional and global bond market development. BESA's experience provides valuable lessons for other emerging market economies also seeking to build bond markets. The sophistication of the local bond market is not enough to make it appealing to foreign borrowers. Market development demands an enabling market infrastructure and a background of macroeconomic stability, diversified market participants, deregulation of capital flows and an appropriate regulatory and supervisory environment.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2009
- Authors: Hove, Tagara
- Date: 2009
- Subjects: Bond Exchange of South Africa , Bond market -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:961 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002695 , Bond Exchange of South Africa , Bond market -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa
- Description: This study looks at the development of bond markets in emerging economies and focuses on the development of the Bond Exchange of South Africa (BESA). It explores the history, structure, performance and key issues related to the development of this market within the broader context of domestic, regional and global bond market development. BESA's experience provides valuable lessons for other emerging market economies also seeking to build bond markets. The sophistication of the local bond market is not enough to make it appealing to foreign borrowers. Market development demands an enabling market infrastructure and a background of macroeconomic stability, diversified market participants, deregulation of capital flows and an appropriate regulatory and supervisory environment.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2009
Integration between the South African and international bond markets : implications for portfolio diversification
- Authors: Rabana, Phomolo
- Date: 2009
- Subjects: Bond market , Bond market -- South Africa , Principal components analysis , International finance , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa , Investments -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:947 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002681 , Bond market , Bond market -- South Africa , Principal components analysis , International finance , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa , Investments -- South Africa
- Description: International bond market linkages are examined using monthly bond yield data and total return indices on government bonds with ten years to maturity. The bond yield data covers a nineteen-year period from January 1990 to July 2008, while the bond total return index data covers a nine-year period from August 2000 to July 2008. The international bond markets included in the study are Australia, Canada, Germany, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States. The examination of international bond market linkages across these markets has important implications for the formulation of effective portfolio diversification strategies. The empirical analysis is carried out in three phases: the preliminary analysis, the principal component analysis (PCA), and the cointegration analysis. For each analysis and for each set of data the full sample period is first analysed and subsequently a five-year rolling window approach is implemented. Accordingly, this makes it possible to capture the time-varying nature of international bond market linkages. The preliminary analysis examines the bond market trends over the sample period, provides descriptive statistics, and reports the correlation coefficients between the selected bond markets. The PCA investigates the interrelationships among the bond markets according to their common sources of movement and identifies which markets tend to move together. The cointegration analysis is carried out using the Johansen cointegration procedure and investigates whether there is long-run comovement between South Africa and the selected bond markets. Where cointegration is found, Vector Error-Correction Models (VECMs) are estimated in order to examine the long-run equilibrium relationships in addition to their short-run adjustments over time. The empirical analysis results were robust, and overall integration between SA and the selected major bond markets remained weak and sporadic. In addition, the results showed that even after accounting for exchange rate differentials, international bond market diversification remained beneficial for a South African investor; and since international bond market linkages remained weak with no observable trend, international bond market diversification will remain beneficial for some time to come for a South African investor.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2009
- Authors: Rabana, Phomolo
- Date: 2009
- Subjects: Bond market , Bond market -- South Africa , Principal components analysis , International finance , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa , Investments -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:947 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002681 , Bond market , Bond market -- South Africa , Principal components analysis , International finance , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa , Investments -- South Africa
- Description: International bond market linkages are examined using monthly bond yield data and total return indices on government bonds with ten years to maturity. The bond yield data covers a nineteen-year period from January 1990 to July 2008, while the bond total return index data covers a nine-year period from August 2000 to July 2008. The international bond markets included in the study are Australia, Canada, Germany, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States. The examination of international bond market linkages across these markets has important implications for the formulation of effective portfolio diversification strategies. The empirical analysis is carried out in three phases: the preliminary analysis, the principal component analysis (PCA), and the cointegration analysis. For each analysis and for each set of data the full sample period is first analysed and subsequently a five-year rolling window approach is implemented. Accordingly, this makes it possible to capture the time-varying nature of international bond market linkages. The preliminary analysis examines the bond market trends over the sample period, provides descriptive statistics, and reports the correlation coefficients between the selected bond markets. The PCA investigates the interrelationships among the bond markets according to their common sources of movement and identifies which markets tend to move together. The cointegration analysis is carried out using the Johansen cointegration procedure and investigates whether there is long-run comovement between South Africa and the selected bond markets. Where cointegration is found, Vector Error-Correction Models (VECMs) are estimated in order to examine the long-run equilibrium relationships in addition to their short-run adjustments over time. The empirical analysis results were robust, and overall integration between SA and the selected major bond markets remained weak and sporadic. In addition, the results showed that even after accounting for exchange rate differentials, international bond market diversification remained beneficial for a South African investor; and since international bond market linkages remained weak with no observable trend, international bond market diversification will remain beneficial for some time to come for a South African investor.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2009
The impact of macroeconomic and financial factors on the performance of the housing property market in South Africa
- Authors: Kwangware, Debra
- Date: 2009
- Subjects: Microeconomics , Housing -- South Africa , Housing -- Prices -- South Africa , Real property -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1042 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1005641 , Microeconomics , Housing -- South Africa , Housing -- Prices -- South Africa , Real property -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa
- Description: This study exammes the impact of macroeconomic and financial variables on the performance of the housing property market in South Africa using monthly data for the period January 1996 to June 2008. Orthogonalised and non-orthogonalised house price returns and real estate returns are utilised as proxies for the housing property market in separate models. Three main issues were empirically analysed in relation to the linkage between selected variables and the housing property market. The first aspect examined the relationship between selected macroeconomic and financial factors and property returns. Secondly, the study examined the influence that a unit shock to each variable has on property returns over a period of time. The third aspect focused on determining the proportion of property returns variation that results from changes in the macroeconomic and financial variables. VAR modelling was thus adopted to empirically analyse these three aspects. The results reveal that house price returns are influenced by most of the macroeconomic and financial variables used in this study. Specifically, the real effective exchange rate, interest rate spread and manufacturing production positively impact on house price returns while the domestic interest rate, the dividend yield and expected inflation have a negative effect. Furthermore, manufacturing production has a lagged effect on house price returns while the real effective exchange rate and domestic interest rate have a contemporaneous effect. Real estate returns are not influenced by most of the variables except for the domestic interest rate and dividend yield which have a negative effect.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2009
- Authors: Kwangware, Debra
- Date: 2009
- Subjects: Microeconomics , Housing -- South Africa , Housing -- Prices -- South Africa , Real property -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1042 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1005641 , Microeconomics , Housing -- South Africa , Housing -- Prices -- South Africa , Real property -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa
- Description: This study exammes the impact of macroeconomic and financial variables on the performance of the housing property market in South Africa using monthly data for the period January 1996 to June 2008. Orthogonalised and non-orthogonalised house price returns and real estate returns are utilised as proxies for the housing property market in separate models. Three main issues were empirically analysed in relation to the linkage between selected variables and the housing property market. The first aspect examined the relationship between selected macroeconomic and financial factors and property returns. Secondly, the study examined the influence that a unit shock to each variable has on property returns over a period of time. The third aspect focused on determining the proportion of property returns variation that results from changes in the macroeconomic and financial variables. VAR modelling was thus adopted to empirically analyse these three aspects. The results reveal that house price returns are influenced by most of the macroeconomic and financial variables used in this study. Specifically, the real effective exchange rate, interest rate spread and manufacturing production positively impact on house price returns while the domestic interest rate, the dividend yield and expected inflation have a negative effect. Furthermore, manufacturing production has a lagged effect on house price returns while the real effective exchange rate and domestic interest rate have a contemporaneous effect. Real estate returns are not influenced by most of the variables except for the domestic interest rate and dividend yield which have a negative effect.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2009
An analysis of exchange rate pass-through to prices in South Africa
- Authors: Karoro, Tapiwa Daniel
- Date: 2008
- Subjects: Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Inflation (Finance) -- South Africa , Prices -- South Africa , Banks and banking -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic policy
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:953 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002687 , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Inflation (Finance) -- South Africa , Prices -- South Africa , Banks and banking -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic policy
- Description: The fact that South Africa has a floating exchange rate policy as well as an open trade policy leaves the country’s import, producer and consumer prices susceptible to the effects of exchange rate movements. Given the central role that inflation targeting occupies in South Africa’s monetary policy, it becomes necessary to determine the nature of influence of exchange rate changes on domestic prices. To this end, this thesis examines the magnitude and speed of exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) to import, producer and consumer prices in South Africa. Furthermore, it explores whether the direction and size of changes in the exchange rate have different pass-through effects on import prices, that is, whether the exchange rate pass-through is symmetric or asymmetric. The paper uses monthly data covering the period January 1980 to December 2005. In investigating ERPT, two main stages are identified. The initial stage is the transmission of fluctuations in the exchange rate to import prices, while the second-stage entails the pass-through of changes in import prices to producer and consumer prices. The first stage is estimated using the Johansen (1991) and (1995) cointegration techniques and a vector error correction model (VECM). The second stage pass-through is determined by estimating impulse response and variance decomposition functions, as well as conducting block exogeneity Wald tests. The study follows Wickremasinghe and Silvapulle’s (2004) approach in estimating pass-through asymmetry with respect to appreciations and depreciations. In addition, the thesis adapts the analytical framework of Wickremasinghe and Silvapulle (2004) to investigate the pass-through of large and small changes in the exchange rate to import prices. The results suggest that ERPT in South Africa is incomplete but relatively high. Furthermore, ERPT is found to be higher in periods of rand depreciation than appreciation which supports the binding quantity constraint theory. There is also some evidence that pass-through is higher in periods of small changes than large changes in the exchange rate, which supports the menu cost theory when invoices are denominated in the exporters’ currency.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2008
- Authors: Karoro, Tapiwa Daniel
- Date: 2008
- Subjects: Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Inflation (Finance) -- South Africa , Prices -- South Africa , Banks and banking -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic policy
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:953 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002687 , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Inflation (Finance) -- South Africa , Prices -- South Africa , Banks and banking -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic policy
- Description: The fact that South Africa has a floating exchange rate policy as well as an open trade policy leaves the country’s import, producer and consumer prices susceptible to the effects of exchange rate movements. Given the central role that inflation targeting occupies in South Africa’s monetary policy, it becomes necessary to determine the nature of influence of exchange rate changes on domestic prices. To this end, this thesis examines the magnitude and speed of exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) to import, producer and consumer prices in South Africa. Furthermore, it explores whether the direction and size of changes in the exchange rate have different pass-through effects on import prices, that is, whether the exchange rate pass-through is symmetric or asymmetric. The paper uses monthly data covering the period January 1980 to December 2005. In investigating ERPT, two main stages are identified. The initial stage is the transmission of fluctuations in the exchange rate to import prices, while the second-stage entails the pass-through of changes in import prices to producer and consumer prices. The first stage is estimated using the Johansen (1991) and (1995) cointegration techniques and a vector error correction model (VECM). The second stage pass-through is determined by estimating impulse response and variance decomposition functions, as well as conducting block exogeneity Wald tests. The study follows Wickremasinghe and Silvapulle’s (2004) approach in estimating pass-through asymmetry with respect to appreciations and depreciations. In addition, the thesis adapts the analytical framework of Wickremasinghe and Silvapulle (2004) to investigate the pass-through of large and small changes in the exchange rate to import prices. The results suggest that ERPT in South Africa is incomplete but relatively high. Furthermore, ERPT is found to be higher in periods of rand depreciation than appreciation which supports the binding quantity constraint theory. There is also some evidence that pass-through is higher in periods of small changes than large changes in the exchange rate, which supports the menu cost theory when invoices are denominated in the exporters’ currency.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2008
Trends and determinants of inward foreign direct investment to South Africa
- Authors: Rusike, Tatonga Gardner
- Date: 2008
- Subjects: International business enterprises -- South Africa , Investments, Foreign -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , Macroeconomics -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:995 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002730 , International business enterprises -- South Africa , Investments, Foreign -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , Macroeconomics -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa
- Description: Foreign direct investment (FDI) is seen as a way to provide the needed capital inflow to stimulate growth in a domestic economy. FDI can also result in increased employment levels, managerial skills and increase in technology. In efforts to attract FDI, host countries have undertaken various policy incentives to attract foreign investors. This study analyses the trends and determinants of inward FDI to South Africa for the period 1975-2005. The study starts by reviewing FDI literature on its determinants and provides the macroeconomic background and FDI related policies undertaken in South Africa. The trend and sectoral analysis provides the actual nature of FDI flows to South Africa. An empirical model linking theoretical and empirical determinants of FDI is estimated using the Johansen cointegration and VECM framework. The study also augments the cointegration framework with impulse response and variance decomposition analyses to complement the long and short run determinants of FDI. Dummy variables are used in each of the estimated FDI models to take into account the possibility of structural breaks. Results show that relative to the size of the economy and to other developing countries, South Africa still receives low levels of inward FDI. Only are few years are exceptional i.e. 1997, 2001 and 2005. From the sectoral distribution, the financial sector is now the major recipient of FDI followed by the mining and manufacturing sectors. The emergence of the financial sector could suggest that FDI motives could have shifted from the natural resource seeking and market seeking to efficiency seeking FDI. The United Kingdom emerges as the major source of FDI to South Africa followed by United States of America and Germany. Empirical analysis indicated that openness, exchange rate and financial development are important long run determinants of FDI. Increased openness and financial development attract FDI while an increase (depreciation) in the exchange rate deters FDI to South Africa. Market size emerges as a short run determinant of FDI although it is declining in importance. Most of the impulse response analysis confirmed the VECM findings. Variance decomposition analysis showed that FDI itself, imports and exchange rate explain a significant amount of the forecast error variance. The influence of market size variable is small and declining over time.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2008
- Authors: Rusike, Tatonga Gardner
- Date: 2008
- Subjects: International business enterprises -- South Africa , Investments, Foreign -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , Macroeconomics -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:995 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002730 , International business enterprises -- South Africa , Investments, Foreign -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , Macroeconomics -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa
- Description: Foreign direct investment (FDI) is seen as a way to provide the needed capital inflow to stimulate growth in a domestic economy. FDI can also result in increased employment levels, managerial skills and increase in technology. In efforts to attract FDI, host countries have undertaken various policy incentives to attract foreign investors. This study analyses the trends and determinants of inward FDI to South Africa for the period 1975-2005. The study starts by reviewing FDI literature on its determinants and provides the macroeconomic background and FDI related policies undertaken in South Africa. The trend and sectoral analysis provides the actual nature of FDI flows to South Africa. An empirical model linking theoretical and empirical determinants of FDI is estimated using the Johansen cointegration and VECM framework. The study also augments the cointegration framework with impulse response and variance decomposition analyses to complement the long and short run determinants of FDI. Dummy variables are used in each of the estimated FDI models to take into account the possibility of structural breaks. Results show that relative to the size of the economy and to other developing countries, South Africa still receives low levels of inward FDI. Only are few years are exceptional i.e. 1997, 2001 and 2005. From the sectoral distribution, the financial sector is now the major recipient of FDI followed by the mining and manufacturing sectors. The emergence of the financial sector could suggest that FDI motives could have shifted from the natural resource seeking and market seeking to efficiency seeking FDI. The United Kingdom emerges as the major source of FDI to South Africa followed by United States of America and Germany. Empirical analysis indicated that openness, exchange rate and financial development are important long run determinants of FDI. Increased openness and financial development attract FDI while an increase (depreciation) in the exchange rate deters FDI to South Africa. Market size emerges as a short run determinant of FDI although it is declining in importance. Most of the impulse response analysis confirmed the VECM findings. Variance decomposition analysis showed that FDI itself, imports and exchange rate explain a significant amount of the forecast error variance. The influence of market size variable is small and declining over time.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2008
An empirical investigation into the determinants of stock market behaviour in South Africa
- Authors: Olalere, Durodola Oludamola
- Date: 2007
- Subjects: Johannesburg Stock Exchange , Stocks -- Prices -- South Africa , Stock exchanges -- South Africa , Macroeconomics -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:998 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002733 , Johannesburg Stock Exchange , Stocks -- Prices -- South Africa , Stock exchanges -- South Africa , Macroeconomics -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa
- Description: The argument with regards to whether macro-economic fundamentals determine stock market behaviour is very important because of the roles it plays in an economy. Such roles include: pooling and trading of risks, mobilization of savings, provision of liquidity and allocation of capital. However, the stock market will only perform such roles effectively if the macro-economic environment is conducive. This study examined the behaviour of the All Share Index (ALSI) and market capitalization on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange in response to changes in the domestic and international macro-economic fundamentals such as the consumer price index, rand-dollar real exchange rates, domestic GDP, yield on South African government bonds, yield on United States government bonds and United States GDP. The study used cointegration and error correction techniques proposed by Johansen and Juselius (1990) to test for long run relationship. Two separate models were estimated and results obtained show that the two proxies for the stock market behaviour (All share Index and market capitalization) are true endogenous variables, but react differently to economic fundamentals. The consumer price index has a significant negative impact on the JSE share price index while market capitalization is determined predominantly by the yield on South African government bonds. The exchange rate seems to have had little or no influence on the share price index, but becomes negative and significant in the case of market capitalization. The yield on United States government bonds also produced a strong influence on both the share price index and market capitalization. While it has a negative significant impact on share prices, it produced a positive significant impact on market capitalization. In order to ascertain whether the South African interest rate or the United States interest rate is more important in explaining the share price and market capitalization, each of the variables were estimated in the model separately, the result obtained reveals that the United States interest rate is more important than the domestic interest rate in explaining the share price and market capitalization on the JSE. This implies that investors need to observe the USA interest rate before investing in South African equities. A comparison of the responses of share price index and market capitalization to impulses from the macro-economic variables tested reveals that both proxies elicit a positive response from aggregate output. The share price index responds more significantly to impulses from output growth than the market capitalization, meaning that, as aggregate production increases, the share price index tends to respond positively and quickly. The exchange rate produced mixed result from the two proxies, while it produced a positive response from the market capitalization; an initial positive response was noted in the share price index that immediately turned negative. Another glaring contrast was identified in the response of both proxies to impulses from the United States interest rate. The share price index responded positively while the market capitalization produced a negative response. This finding reveals that the two proxies actually respond differently to macro-economic variables. The variance decomposition of both stock prices and market capitalization reveals that the yield on United States government bonds has a more significant absorption potential than the South African government bonds. However, the absorption process is slower in the case of the market capitalization. The exchange rate has a greater impact on the market capitalization than stock prices. The overall assessment shows that share prices respond faster than market capitalization to macro-economic fundamentals. The study also shows that the increased openness of the South African economy by way of relaxation of the exchange control on capital account transaction has allowed the USA market to play a crucial role in equity prices in South Africa. Three main policy recommendations results from the study. Firstly, if inflation is well monitored, then the local equity market is bound to perform strongly resulting in strong shares earning growth. Secondly, the exchange rate should be made to be less volatile so that long term investment plans across borders can be further enhanced. Thirdly, financial analyst and investors in South Africa need to analyse macro-economic developments in the United States before investing in equities in South Africa.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2007
- Authors: Olalere, Durodola Oludamola
- Date: 2007
- Subjects: Johannesburg Stock Exchange , Stocks -- Prices -- South Africa , Stock exchanges -- South Africa , Macroeconomics -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:998 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002733 , Johannesburg Stock Exchange , Stocks -- Prices -- South Africa , Stock exchanges -- South Africa , Macroeconomics -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa
- Description: The argument with regards to whether macro-economic fundamentals determine stock market behaviour is very important because of the roles it plays in an economy. Such roles include: pooling and trading of risks, mobilization of savings, provision of liquidity and allocation of capital. However, the stock market will only perform such roles effectively if the macro-economic environment is conducive. This study examined the behaviour of the All Share Index (ALSI) and market capitalization on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange in response to changes in the domestic and international macro-economic fundamentals such as the consumer price index, rand-dollar real exchange rates, domestic GDP, yield on South African government bonds, yield on United States government bonds and United States GDP. The study used cointegration and error correction techniques proposed by Johansen and Juselius (1990) to test for long run relationship. Two separate models were estimated and results obtained show that the two proxies for the stock market behaviour (All share Index and market capitalization) are true endogenous variables, but react differently to economic fundamentals. The consumer price index has a significant negative impact on the JSE share price index while market capitalization is determined predominantly by the yield on South African government bonds. The exchange rate seems to have had little or no influence on the share price index, but becomes negative and significant in the case of market capitalization. The yield on United States government bonds also produced a strong influence on both the share price index and market capitalization. While it has a negative significant impact on share prices, it produced a positive significant impact on market capitalization. In order to ascertain whether the South African interest rate or the United States interest rate is more important in explaining the share price and market capitalization, each of the variables were estimated in the model separately, the result obtained reveals that the United States interest rate is more important than the domestic interest rate in explaining the share price and market capitalization on the JSE. This implies that investors need to observe the USA interest rate before investing in South African equities. A comparison of the responses of share price index and market capitalization to impulses from the macro-economic variables tested reveals that both proxies elicit a positive response from aggregate output. The share price index responds more significantly to impulses from output growth than the market capitalization, meaning that, as aggregate production increases, the share price index tends to respond positively and quickly. The exchange rate produced mixed result from the two proxies, while it produced a positive response from the market capitalization; an initial positive response was noted in the share price index that immediately turned negative. Another glaring contrast was identified in the response of both proxies to impulses from the United States interest rate. The share price index responded positively while the market capitalization produced a negative response. This finding reveals that the two proxies actually respond differently to macro-economic variables. The variance decomposition of both stock prices and market capitalization reveals that the yield on United States government bonds has a more significant absorption potential than the South African government bonds. However, the absorption process is slower in the case of the market capitalization. The exchange rate has a greater impact on the market capitalization than stock prices. The overall assessment shows that share prices respond faster than market capitalization to macro-economic fundamentals. The study also shows that the increased openness of the South African economy by way of relaxation of the exchange control on capital account transaction has allowed the USA market to play a crucial role in equity prices in South Africa. Three main policy recommendations results from the study. Firstly, if inflation is well monitored, then the local equity market is bound to perform strongly resulting in strong shares earning growth. Secondly, the exchange rate should be made to be less volatile so that long term investment plans across borders can be further enhanced. Thirdly, financial analyst and investors in South Africa need to analyse macro-economic developments in the United States before investing in equities in South Africa.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2007
The behaviour and fundamental determinants of the real exchange rate in South Africa
- Authors: Takaendesa, Peter
- Date: 2006
- Subjects: Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa , Terms of trade -- South Africa , Finance -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:960 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002694 , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa , Terms of trade -- South Africa , Finance -- South Africa
- Description: Real exchange rates have important effects on production, employment and trade, so it is crucial to understand the factors responsible for their variations. This study analyses the main determinants of the real exchange rate and the dynamic adjustment of the real exchange rate following shocks to those determinants, using quarterly South African data covering the period 1975 to 2005. It begins with a review of literature on the determinants of the real exchange rate and provides an updated background on the exchange rate system in South Africa. An empirical model linking the real exchange rate to its theoretical determinants is then specified. In contrast to previous analyses, this study augments the cointegration and vector autoregression (VAR) analysis with impulse response and variance decomposition analyses to provide robust long run effects and short run dynamic effects on the real exchange rate. The variables that have been found to have a long run relationship with the real exchange rate include the terms of trade, real interest rate differential, domestic credit, openness and technological progress. The estimate of the speed of adjustment coefficient found in this study indicates that about a third of the variation in the real exchange rate from its equilibrium level is corrected within a quarter. The impulse response functions broadly corroborate the theoretical predictions, but only the terms of trade, domestic credit and openness have a significant impact on the real exchange rate in the short run. However, only shocks to the terms of trade and domestic credit have persistent effects on the real exchange rate. Results from the variance decompositions are largely similar to those from the impulse response analysis. The terms of trade, domestic credit and openness are the only variables found to significantly explain the variation in the real exchange rate. The most interesting result that emerged from this analysis and is supported by previous research is that among other determinants, the terms of trade explain the largest proportion of the variation in the real exchange. On balance, the evidence therefore suggests that real exchange rate fluctuations are predominantly equilibrium responses to real and monetary shocks rather than fiscal policy shocks.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2006
- Authors: Takaendesa, Peter
- Date: 2006
- Subjects: Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa , Terms of trade -- South Africa , Finance -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:960 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002694 , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa , Terms of trade -- South Africa , Finance -- South Africa
- Description: Real exchange rates have important effects on production, employment and trade, so it is crucial to understand the factors responsible for their variations. This study analyses the main determinants of the real exchange rate and the dynamic adjustment of the real exchange rate following shocks to those determinants, using quarterly South African data covering the period 1975 to 2005. It begins with a review of literature on the determinants of the real exchange rate and provides an updated background on the exchange rate system in South Africa. An empirical model linking the real exchange rate to its theoretical determinants is then specified. In contrast to previous analyses, this study augments the cointegration and vector autoregression (VAR) analysis with impulse response and variance decomposition analyses to provide robust long run effects and short run dynamic effects on the real exchange rate. The variables that have been found to have a long run relationship with the real exchange rate include the terms of trade, real interest rate differential, domestic credit, openness and technological progress. The estimate of the speed of adjustment coefficient found in this study indicates that about a third of the variation in the real exchange rate from its equilibrium level is corrected within a quarter. The impulse response functions broadly corroborate the theoretical predictions, but only the terms of trade, domestic credit and openness have a significant impact on the real exchange rate in the short run. However, only shocks to the terms of trade and domestic credit have persistent effects on the real exchange rate. Results from the variance decompositions are largely similar to those from the impulse response analysis. The terms of trade, domestic credit and openness are the only variables found to significantly explain the variation in the real exchange rate. The most interesting result that emerged from this analysis and is supported by previous research is that among other determinants, the terms of trade explain the largest proportion of the variation in the real exchange. On balance, the evidence therefore suggests that real exchange rate fluctuations are predominantly equilibrium responses to real and monetary shocks rather than fiscal policy shocks.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2006
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