Exchange rates behaviour in Ghana and Nigeria: is there a misalignment?
- Authors: Mapenda, Rufaro
- Date: 2011 , 2011-11-09
- Subjects: Foreign exchange rates -- Ghana , Foreign exchange rates -- Nigeria , Economic development -- Ghana , Economic development -- Nigeria , Foreign exchange administration -- Ghana , Foreign exchange administration -- Nigeria , International relations
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:976 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002710 , Foreign exchange rates -- Ghana , Foreign exchange rates -- Nigeria , Economic development -- Ghana , Economic development -- Nigeria , Foreign exchange administration -- Ghana , Foreign exchange administration -- Nigeria , International relations
- Description: Exchange rates are believed to be one of the major driving forces behind sustainable macroeconomic growth and it is therefore important to ensure that they are at an appropriate level. Exchange rate misalignment is a situation where the actual exchange rate differs significantly from its equilibrium value, resulting in either an overvalued or an undervalued currency. The problem with an undervalued currency is that it will increase the domestic price of tradable goods whereas an overvalued currency will cause a fall in the domestic prices of the tradable goods. Persistent exchange rate misalignment is thus expected to result in severe macroeconomic instability. The aim of this study is to estimate the equilibrium real exchange rate for both Ghana and Nigeria. After so doing, the equilibrium real exchange rate is compared to the actual real exchange rate, in order to assess the extent of real exchange rate misalignment in both countries, if any such exists. In order test the applicability of the equilibrium exchange rate models, the study draws from the simple monetary model as well as the Edwards (1989) and Montiel (1999) models. These models postulate that the variables which determine the real exchange rate are the terms of trade, trade restrictions, domestic interest rates, foreign aid inflow, income, money supply, world inflation, government consumption expenditure, world interest rates, capital controls and technological progress. Due to data limitations in Ghana and in Nigeria, not all the variables are utilised in the study. The study uses the Johansen (1995) model as well as the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) to estimate the long- and the short-run relationships between the above-mentioned determinants and the real exchange rate. Thereafter the study employs the Hodrick-Prescott filter to estimate the permanent equilibrium exchange rate. The study estimates a real exchange rate model each for Ghana and Nigeria. Both the exchange rate models for Ghana and Nigeria provide evidence of exchange rate misalignment. The model for Ghana shows that from the first quarter of 1980 to the last quarter of 1983 the real exchange rate was overvalued; thereafter the exchange rate moved close to its equilibrium value and was generally undervalued with few and short-lived episodes of overvaluation. In regard to real exchange rate misalignment in Nigeria prior to the Structural Adjustment Program in 1986 there were episodes of undervaluation from the first quarter of 1980 to the first quarter of 1984 and overvaluation from the second quarter of 1984 to the third quarter of 1986; thereafter the exchange rate was generally and marginally undervalued.
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- Date Issued: 2011
An examination of the validity of the concept of nuclear deterrence within the framework of post-cold war international relations : an analytical conflict resolution approach
- Authors: Lefeez, Sophie
- Date: 2007
- Subjects: Nuclear arms control , Nuclear nonproliferation , International relations , Security, International , Nuclear disarmament
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MPhil
- Identifier: vital:8233 , http://hdl.handle.net/10948/827 , Nuclear arms control , Nuclear nonproliferation , International relations , Security, International , Nuclear disarmament
- Description: Nuclear deterrence is born from the two superpowers’ relations during the Cold War as they were the first countries to get nuclear weapons and they were the main and most powerful rivals in the world. Then new actors joined the game by testing their own nuclear bombs: the UK in 1952, followed by France in 1960, China in 1964, India in 1974, and Pakistan in 1998. Israel pretends it does not have any nuclear weapons but it is an open secret that they do 1. France helped Israel to get its weapons and the nuclear explosion in 1979 off the southern coast of Africa probably involved Israel and South Africa (sourced by the Federation of American Scientists, the Wisconsin Project on Arms Control, the Center for Defense Information, etc.). This was confirmed by Mordechai Vanunu, former Israeli scientist who worked on developing the bomb. The intrusion of new nuclear countries frightened the United States and the USSR because the balance was already fragile and newcomers could break it. Would the game remain "safe" with more players? Therefore in 1968 both countries drafted a treaty to prevent nuclear proliferation. The Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) came into force in 1970, at a time when five countries had successfully achieved a nuclear explosion. The NPT officially recognises only these five countries as nuclear-weapons states. They happen to be also the five permanent member states of the UN Security Council. India and Pakistan carried out a nuclear test after 1968 and are therefore referred to as non-official nuclearweapons states. The new nuclear states adopted and adapted the nuclear doctrine to their needs, their geopolitical interests and their place in international relations.
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- Date Issued: 2007
Defining governance in Uganda in a changing world order, 1962-94
- Authors: Kintu-Nyago, Crispin
- Date: 1996
- Subjects: Uganda -- Politics and government , Uganda -- Economic conditions , World politics , International relations
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MA
- Identifier: vital:2788 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002998 , Uganda -- Politics and government , Uganda -- Economic conditions , World politics , International relations
- Description: This study argues that much of early post colonial Uganda's political developments, had its roots in the colonial patterns of governance. It was, however, the imperative of Uganda's early post colonial rulers to have formulated and maintained conditions for legitimate and orderly governance. Largely, this required a coherent political class with a mass based and mobilising political movement, that moreover had a political programme that catered for the interests of its support base. Indeed, their opting to negate these very prerequisite conditions, contributed greatly to Uganda's subsequent political disorder, and it's further marginalisation in the International Political Economy. This study suggests that since the impact of colonialism in Uganda, its governance policies have closely been linked to the broader dictates of the International Political Economy. A reality that the policy makers in post colonial Uganda should have realised, and in the process attempted to advantageously adapt to the Ugandan situation. Their was a qualitative improvement in Uganda's governance from 1986. This study illustrates that this was a result of the emerging into power of a political class, whose policies deliberately and strenuously attempted to fulfil the above mentioned criteria. Their is need to link Uganda's foreign and governance policies. Consequently a conscious and deliberate effort has to made by its policy makers, to ensure that the two are amicably adapted to each other, so as to derive the best possible benefits. For instance what Uganda needs in the existing New World Order are development, domestic and foreign investments and export markets for its produce. All of which can only be obtained if political order through a legitimate political system and government exists. With a leadership, that moreover, deliberately attracts foreign investments and creates the enabling conditions for competitive economic production. The onus is upon Ugandans to ensure that they institutionalise conditions for their appropriate governance and foreign policies. For this thesis argues that the International Political Economy is dynamic, and Uganda was never predestined to be at its margins.
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- Date Issued: 1996
The impact of the end of the Cold War on transition in South Africa
- Authors: Du Preez, Roni
- Date: 1994
- Subjects: Cold War , International relations , South Africa -- Politics and government -- 1989-1994 , South Africa -- Foreign relations -- 1989-1994 , South Africa -- Politics and government -- 1978-1989 , South Africa -- Foreign relations -- 1978-1989
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MA
- Identifier: vital:2773 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002983 , Cold War , International relations , South Africa -- Politics and government -- 1989-1994 , South Africa -- Foreign relations -- 1989-1994 , South Africa -- Politics and government -- 1978-1989 , South Africa -- Foreign relations -- 1978-1989
- Description: This thesis argues that F.W. de Klerk's historic February 1990 speech was the end product of a set of circumstances in recent South African and global history which made possible the new phase of transitional politics which South Africa is currently experiencing. It seeks to establish that of all the factors that contributed to change, it was the late 1980s thaw in the Cold War, and its resultant repercussions internationally and regionally which was the catalytic factor which made the new era possible. In all the literature on transition there has been no comprehensive analysis of the plausible link between the two superpowers agreeing in the mid-1980s to abandon confrontational practices and to change their approaches to regional conflicts and the South African government agreeing to negotiate for a new political dispensation. This thesis will seek to establish and analyse such a link. By 1986 there was in certain governmental circles a non-public view that the policy of apartheid had failed both as a solution to the problem of black political aspirations and as a legitimating ideology. Constraining any serious move towards political change was a widely held fear at the top level of government that an accelerated reform process would make South Africa vulnerable to external aggression and internal revolutionary forces. This thesis suggests that the collapse of communist rule in Eastern Europe and the 'new political thinking' in Soviet foreign policy resulted in the notion of a communist-inspired total onslaught against South Africa losing currency - as did the position of those within the ruling elite who remained dogmatically attached to it. The end of the Cold War is the common thread which links South Africa's international , regional and domestic environments. Two important events occurred in the international and regional arenas, which against the backdrop of the end of the Cold War, strengthened the credibility of the alternative view in government: (i) the October 1986 Reykjavik Summit and (ii) the South African Defence Force setback at Cuito Cuanavale. P.W. Botha's resignation as leader of the National Party and soon after as State President created the political space through which the view of the reformers could emerge as dominant. Recognising that neither the international nor regional environments sustained the beliefs and fears held by the military hawks, F.W. de Klerk was able to capitalise on the ambience of negotiations and apply it to the South African situation. De Klerk's February 1990 speech was therefore the culmination of a process which had its origins in the mid-1980's.
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- Date Issued: 1994