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Effects of exchange rate volatility on the stock market: a case study of South Africa

  • Authors: Mlambo, Courage
  • Date: 2013
  • Subjects: Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa , Currency question -- South Africa , Free trade -- South Africa , Capital movements -- South Africa , Cointegration -- South Africa , Investments, Foreign , International trade , Stock exchanges -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic policy
  • Language: English
  • Type: Thesis , Masters , M Com
  • Identifier: vital:11468 , http://hdl.handle.net/10353/d1007125 , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa , Currency question -- South Africa , Free trade -- South Africa , Capital movements -- South Africa , Cointegration -- South Africa , Investments, Foreign , International trade , Stock exchanges -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic policy
  • Description: This study assessed the effects of currency volatility on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange. An evaluation of literature on exchange rate volatility and stock markets was conducted resulting into specification of an empirical model.The Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedascity (1.1) (GARCH) model was used in establishing the relationship between exchange rate volatility and stock market performance. The study employed monthly South African data for the period 2000 – 2010. The data frequency selected ensured an adequate number of observations. A very weak relationship between currency volatility and the stock market was confirmed. The research finding is supported by previous studies. Prime overdraft rate and total mining production were found to have a negative impact on Market capitalisation. Surprisingly, US interest rates were found to have a positive impact on Market capitalisation. This study recommended that, since the South African stock market is not really exposed to the negative effects of currency volatility, government can use exchange rate as a policy tool to attract foreign portfolio investment. The weak relationship between currency volatility and the stock market suggests that the JSE can be marketed as a safe market for foreign investors. However, investors, bankers and portfolio managers still need to be vigilant in regard to the spillovers from the foreign exchange rate into the stock market. Although there is a weak relationship between rand volatility and the stock market in South Africa, this does not necessarily mean that investors and portfolio managers need not monitor the developments between these two variables.
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  • Date Issued: 2013

Carriage of goods by sea - from Hague to Rotterdam: safer waters

  • Authors: Metuge, Denning N
  • Date: 2012
  • Subjects: International trade , Transportation
  • Language: English
  • Type: Thesis , Masters , LLM
  • Identifier: vital:10235 , http://hdl.handle.net/10948/d1011561 , International trade , Transportation
  • Description: The back bone of international trade has always been international transport. Without good transport networks, the movement of goods and services from one frontier to another would be an uphill task, and would greatly hinder development in international trade. The impact of such poor transport networks would reflect negatively on economies that rely on international trade for the growth of their nations. Nevertheless, perfect transport networks would be useless if the performance of the business of carriage was not regulated by a law developed to meet the standards established by time, and that would regulate the relationship of the parties under contracts of carriage, mainly the carrier, consignor and consignee, so as to ensure certainty and equality in the allocation of risks between the parties thereunder. This research focuses on the carriage of goods by sea. Like most other modes of transport, one of the major issues that arises in the business of carriage of goods by sea is the conflict between the carrier, consignor and consignee, with regards to the allocation of risk in the carriage. Over the years, early rules that were developed to regulate the relationship of the parties under contracts of carriage of goods by sea placed the carrier in a dominant position over the consignor. The carrier issued a standard bill of lading which exempted him from almost all liability for damage or loss of the goods in his care. The consignors and bona fide third parties, not satisfied with the terms of carriage contracts brought a lot of pressure to bear on their governments to enact legislation protecting their interests in the transaction. The United States of America were the first to pass such national law revising the position of the parties under contracts of carriage. In 1893 the United States of America passed the Harter Act. This Act aimed at imposing limits of liability on the carrier to which no derogation could be brought. However, this was a dangerous precedence which was going to hinder international trade rather than improve on it, as different nations developing local legislation on carriage meant conflict of laws. In order to avoid the extensive nationalisation of carriage laws, the international maritime community set to develop rules that would regulate carriage by sea. Over the years convention has succeeded convention such that today four international regimes (The Hague Rules, Hague-Visby Rules, Hamburg Rules and Rotterdam Rules), exist regulating carriage of goods by sea. This research takes an in-depth look at these regimes that were developed to regulate carriage by sea, and the author aims to identify a particular regime that meets the standards of modern day practice of carriage of goods, and advocate for the ratification of this regime, to the exclusion of all others so as to foster uniformity, certainty and equality in the business of carriage of goods by sea.
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  • Date Issued: 2012

The role of export diversification on economic growth in South Africa: 1980 - 2010

  • Authors: Mudenda, Caroline
  • Date: 2012
  • Subjects: Economic development -- South Africa , International trade , Exports -- South Africa , Capital movements -- South Africa , Human capital -- South Africa , Free trade -- South Africa , Foreign exchange -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic conditions
  • Language: English
  • Type: Thesis , Masters , M Com
  • Identifier: vital:11463 , http://hdl.handle.net/10353/d1007044 , Economic development -- South Africa , International trade , Exports -- South Africa , Capital movements -- South Africa , Human capital -- South Africa , Free trade -- South Africa , Foreign exchange -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic conditions
  • Description: This study examined the role of export diversification on economic growth in South Africa. The study used annual time series data for the period covering 1980 to 2010 and employed a Vector Error Correction Model to determine the effects of export diversification and possible factors that affect it on economic growth. Possible factors that affect export diversification considered as independent variables in this study include gross capital formation, human capital, real effective exchange rate and trade openness. Results of the study reveal that export diversification and trade openness are positively related to economic growth while real effective exchange rate, capital formation and human capital have negative long run relationships with economic growth. The study recommended the continual implementation of trade liberalisation by the South African government. The South African government is also encouraged to promote the production of a diversified export basket through subsidisation, promotion of innovation and production of new products.
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  • Date Issued: 2012

Informal cross-border trade: a review of its impact on household poverty reduction (Zimbabwe)

  • Authors: Chani, Chivimbiso
  • Date: 2008
  • Subjects: Poverty -- Zimbabwe , Households -- Economic aspects -- Zimbabwe , Foreign trade regulations , International trade
  • Language: English
  • Type: Thesis , Masters , M Soc Sc (Dev)
  • Identifier: vital:11407 , http://hdl.handle.net/10353/167 , Poverty -- Zimbabwe , Households -- Economic aspects -- Zimbabwe , Foreign trade regulations , International trade
  • Description: This study endeavors to explore the value of informal cross-border trade to household poverty reduction. Informal cross-border trade has become a panacea to most Zimbabweans both employed and unemployed in the middle of the socio-economic crisis which has eroded the standards of living in Zimbabwe. This study is an eye opener to those who view informal cross-border trade as merely a survival strategy. It explores the efficacy of informal cross-border trade as a poverty reduction strategy looking at its viability and sustainability despite criticism by many people who associate informal cross-border trade with all kinds of negativity. It thrusts forward the agenda of participatory poverty reduction agenda within a nexus of partnerships and relationships between the government, non-governmental organization, institutions and families. Informal cross-border traders have maneuvered their way out of the chains and shackles of poverty even though it has been tough due to many obstacles from different angles. They have helped to distribute the scarce goods and products in Zimbabwe as a consequent of the socio-economic crisis. If they are given a better platform they can 5 perform much better than they are getting at present. Thus this study advocates the forging of networks between various stakeholders in both the formal and informal sector in order to fight against poverty.
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  • Date Issued: 2008

Assessing the use of international business strategies among automotive wiring harness manufacturers in the Nelson Mandela Metropole

  • Authors: Mears, Michael
  • Date: 2007
  • Subjects: International trade , International business enterprises -- South Africa , Corporations, Foreign , International economic relations
  • Language: English
  • Type: Thesis , Masters , MBA
  • Identifier: vital:8741 , http://hdl.handle.net/10948/764 , International trade , International business enterprises -- South Africa , Corporations, Foreign , International economic relations
  • Description: Since 1994, the opening up of the South African economy has presented South African companies with opportunities to exploit the bigger global market and also with challenges of competing with international companies. Companies must consider both external environmental forces and internal organizational factors before arriving at a suitable international strategy. This treatise explores the wiring harness industry in the Nelson Mandela Bay to determine whether the industry is adopting international strategies in line with globalization, thus ensuring sustained growth and profitability. A literature survey was conducted to discover the main strategies that are used by companies in order to achieve global competitiveness. These strategies were used in conjunction with Porter's (1990) theory of National Competitive Advantage to analyse the wiring harness industry in the Nelson Mandela Bay. Porter's (1990) theory of National Competitive Advantage was used to analyse the competitiveness of the wiring harness industry in the Nelson Mandela Bay. A questionnaire was developed to test the degree to which the wiring harness industry in the Nelson Mandela Bay is in agreement with the findings of the literature study. This information was used to determine whether the wiring harness industry in the Nelson Mandela Bay is following global trends to remain profitable.
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  • Date Issued: 2007

Does primary resource-based industrialisation offer an escape from underdevelopment?

  • Authors: Ali, Fatimah
  • Date: 2006
  • Subjects: Comparative advantage (International trade) , Exports -- Africa, West , Exports -- Mauritius , Exports -- South Africa , Foreign trade promotion -- Mauritius , International trade , Primary commodities -- Africa , Human capital -- Economic aspects -- Africa , Natural resources -- Africa , Africa -- Commerce
  • Language: English
  • Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
  • Identifier: vital:1018 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002753 , Comparative advantage (International trade) , Exports -- Africa, West , Exports -- Mauritius , Exports -- South Africa , Foreign trade promotion -- Mauritius , International trade , Primary commodities -- Africa , Human capital -- Economic aspects -- Africa , Natural resources -- Africa , Africa -- Commerce
  • Description: It is commonly believed about sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) that the region has a comparative advantage in primary resources as reflected by its high share of primary exports to total exports. In acknowledging the region's comparative advantage, the study tries to put the determinants from the Wood and Mayer (1998, (999) (W-M) Heckscher-Ohlin based model in the context of two relatively diversified countries (South Africa and Mauritius) and two commodity-export-dependent countries of sub-Saharan Africa (Nigeria and Cô̌̌te d'Ivoire). The study finds that the skill and land resource measures used in the W -M (1998, 1999) thesis do not explain why Nigeria, having a similar level of skill per worker ratio to South Africa, has not diversified. Further, Mauritius having relatively the highest skill per land ratio specialises in low-skill textiles and clothing, while South Africa specialises in the more human capital-intensive "other manufactures" group. The other measure, a low land per worker ratio that explains Mauritius' relatively higher share of manufacturing exports, also fails to apply to Nigeria. The thesis thus concludes that the W-M land and skill measures could only be rough proxies in determining comparative advantage in manufacturing exports. However, employing the Dutch disease hypothesis recognises the potential of land abundance as a natural resource, namely minerals in South Africa, oil in Nigeria, and cocoa in Cǒ̌te d'Ivoire. The Dutch disease is a dynamic process of structural economic and political development that will permit an understanding of why natural resource abundant countries do not have a comparative advantage in manufacturing, at least in the short to medium term. The study therefore investigates commodity dependence and the Dutch disease effects to examine whether primary resource- based industrialisation offers an escape from underdevelopment. It establishes that South Africa, a mineral resource rich country, diversified based on a broad mineral-energy-complex (MEC) reinforcing the notion that land abundant countries will first invest in capital- intensive primary resource processing. However, the thesis concludes that in Nigeria and Cǒ̌te d'Ivoire where external shocks are more predominant probably because of single commodity export reliance, the manufacturing sector lags behind more due to resource and spending effects that a natural resource boom generates in these economies.
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  • Date Issued: 2006

Strategies engaged by a South African beverage organisation entering African markets

  • Authors: Brink, Andries Petrus
  • Date: 2005
  • Subjects: International business enterprises , Coca-cola Sabco (Firm) , Soft drink industry -- South Africa , International trade
  • Language: English
  • Type: Thesis , Masters , MBA
  • Identifier: vital:8544 , http://hdl.handle.net/10948/410 , International business enterprises , Coca-cola Sabco (Firm) , Soft drink industry -- South Africa , International trade
  • Description: Africa is acknowledged as a vast, untapped market for consumer goods as trade barriers are coming down and economies are starting to develop. The need for consumer goods arises with economic activity. This poses the following question, which will be addressed by this research: How can potential African consumer markets be successfully unlocked by a South African beverage organisation, thereby reducing risk of failure and eliminating the cost of a hit-and-miss approach? The secondary study focused on evaluating the aspects involved with risks and the modes of entry into foreign markets. The macro-environmental factors affecting the expansion into foreign markets were investigated to determine what influence they had on the entry mode chosen for a specific country targeted for expansion. Finally the marketing factors influencing the entry mode were analysed. The significance of trade blocs together with the advantages thereof was included in the study. The primary study was based on the theory and principles of existing literature. The Coca-Cola Sabco organisation was taken as a case study. Four countries, namely Kenya, Uganda, Mozambique and Namibia, were investigated. Questionnaires containing a set of questions to satisfy the sub-problems were sent to the various country managers and their first layers of management. Likewise, interviews were conducted with Coca-Cola Sabco head office strategic management. The empirical results obtained, indicated a strong concurrence, with the theory of entry modes and the influences of macro-environmental factors. In certain aspects, however, some contradictions with the theory pertaining to the Coca-Cola Sabco organisation, were observed. The findings concurred with the theory in that risk were minimised by the acquisition of a going concern that already possessed the infrastructure and logistics such as raw material procurement, manufacturing staff skills, distribution networks and political contacts. The empirical results contradict theory with respect to location economies and scale economies, as the Coca-Cola Company’s franchise agreement excludes the exporting of beverage products. Furthermore, Coca-Cola Sabco becomes involved in expansion initiatives only in reaction to an invitation from the Coca-Cola Company and not of its own desire. Therefore, market surveys are conducted subsequent to an invitation from the Coca-Cola Company. South African organisations planning expansion initiatives into emerging African markets need to take the specific macro- environmental factors of the country in question into consideration in order to minimise risk. A franchise agreement restricting exporting as in the case of Coco-Cola Company or any other restrictive agreement, might cause a deviation from contemporary theory, for example, where markets will be assessed for purposes of location and scale economies. Deviations from contemporary theory could also occur where a franchise opportunity is offered in a specific country that may not be the preferred market choice, due to its lack of growth potential.
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  • Date Issued: 2005

Southern African Development Community foreign policy behaviour: the case of trade with external actors

  • Authors: Tebu, Perminus Waithaka
  • Date: 2000
  • Subjects: Southern African Development Community , International trade , Africa, Southern -- Foreign relations
  • Language: English
  • Type: Thesis , Masters , MA
  • Identifier: vital:2834 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1003044 , Southern African Development Community , International trade , Africa, Southern -- Foreign relations
  • Description: This thesis is structured around two main and interwoven assumptions operating at two levels. On the one level the external dimension of security threat in Southern Africa is assumed to be the most critical factor for regional renewal and stability. It hinges on pertinent regional issues such as negative trade balances, economic dependence, poverty, unemployment, poor economic growth rates and so forth. The corollary of this assumption is that within the operative framework of SADC, Southern African states are assumed capable of effectively integrating their economies through trade and related arrangements with dominant external actors in the highly competitive global economy. The European Union (EU) and the United States (US) are used as the focal points for illumination. A structured interaction between SADC and the EU within a revised North-South framework of interaction is hypothesized and critically examined. On the other hand, SADC-US interactions are assessed within the context of the new US Africa policy. At another level, the assumption is also made that the post-apartheid democratic state possesses both the political will and the wherewithal to provide regiol].al Leadership. This latter assumption is put to test within the framework of South Africa's regional foreign policy. Adopting an explicit regional unit of analysis, the study utilizes international regime theory as the theoretical and conceptual point of departure. The realist conception of the international system and the underlying assumptions usually considered as obstacles to international cooperation are critically examined in the context of the post-Cold War expanded security agenda. Regime theory is used to provide insight on the motivations that lead states to cooperate in situations of mutual dilemma by institutionalizing patterns of interaction at the regional and international systemic levels. Interstate economic relations at these levels are explained as state actions that are influenced by certain norms and that such norm-governed behaviour is wholly consistent with the pursuit of national interest. Application of the theory explains why such foreign policy behaviour of states is particularly relevant in the post-Cold War era. The thesis has argued that SADC states are capable of conducting a coordinated trade foreign policy in which regional positions are elaborated and adopted. It is argued further that a regional capacity to institute trade and economic policies that reflect local circumstances (necessary for effective integration with the world economy) calls for strong regional developmental democracies in the tradition of social market economy. Regional leadership by South Africa is considered indispensable where Sbuth Africa must find a sustainable balance between its national and regional interests.
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  • Date Issued: 2000

Protectionism and compliance with the GATT article XXIV in selected regional trade arrangements

  • Authors: Grimett, Leticia Anthea
  • Date: 1999
  • Subjects: General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (Organization) , International trade , Tariff -- Law and legislation , Protectionism , Free trade -- South Africa , South Africa -- Commerce
  • Language: English
  • Type: Thesis , Masters , LLM
  • Identifier: vital:3673 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1003188 , General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (Organization) , International trade , Tariff -- Law and legislation , Protectionism , Free trade -- South Africa , South Africa -- Commerce
  • Description: The General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) 1994 has resulted in the GATT Contracting States making a renewed commitment to freer global trade and trade liberalisation. These Contracting States signalled their commitment to GATT policies and principles by undertaking to abolish all those non-tariff barriers which were not converted to tariffs and to decrease all tariffs applied by their domestic economies. The movement away from protectionism is intended to bring contracting states in line with the GATT most-favoured-nation and national treatment principles. The only exceptions to these principles are the regional trade arrangements which can be implemented in accordance with Article XXIV of GATT 1947 and the Understanding on the Implementation of Article XXIV of GATT 1947. Regional trade arrangements such as customs unions and free-trade areas have been allowed by the GATT as they are deemed to promote trade liberalisation through the removal of substantially all trade restrictions between countries party to these trade arrangements. In practice this has not been the case, however, as these regional trade arrangements have been known to apply very protectionist trade policies. This research determines whether regional trade arrangements are inherently protective ie does the nature of these regional trade arrangements encourage protectionism? The external trade policies of the European Union (EU), Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), Southern African Development Community (SADC) and the Southern African Customs Union (SACU) are analysed to determine whether the contracting parties to regional trade arrangements have corrupted the GATT provisions and so contributed towards the protectionist nature of these regional trade arrangements. The internal trade provisions relating to the implementation of these regional trade arrangements have also been discussed to determine their compliance with Article XXIV of GATT 1947. As all the selected regional trade arrangements have direct or indirect links to South Africa, the implications of the policies chosen by these parties for South Africa have also been discussed. Analysis of the EU, SADC, SACU and ASEAN has shown that prior to the adoption of the GATT 1994, the free-trade areas and customs unions were not implemented in accordance with Article XXIV provisions. These regional trade arrangements have been moulded to fit the economic aspirations of the relevant contracting states. Of the regional trade arrangements accepted by the GATT, free-trade areas have been found to be the least protectionist and are the least likely to be perverted by contracting parties. Customs unions, on the other hand, may encourage contracting parties to protect their economies as they rely on group participation rather than individual participation. Individual Member States become responsible to the group which provides these states with greater economic power. As a result Member States are motivated to protect the new group entity from outside competition. In this way, they are inherently protective. Safeguards are therefore necessary to protect individual non-Member States from such behaviour. The implications of protectionism for South Africa, SADC and SACU have also been discussed.
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  • Date Issued: 1999

Theories of international cooperation and the GATT/WTO regime: beyond the dichotomy of rational and cognitive approaches

  • Authors: Nischalke, Tobias Ingo
  • Date: 1997
  • Subjects: General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (Organization) , World Trade Organization , International trade
  • Language: English
  • Type: Thesis , Masters , MA
  • Identifier: vital:2817 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1003027 , General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (Organization) , World Trade Organization , International trade
  • Description: This thesis aspires to assess the explanatory value of different theories of international cooperation for the case of the world trade regime of GATT/WTO and subsequently strives to reach a satisfactory interpretation of the instance of cooperation. The world trade regime embarked on a process of transformation with the signing of the Marrakech Agreements of 15th April 1994. The event marked the conclusion of the Uruguay Round and, with the establishment of the WTO, the beginning of a new era for the world trade regime. The thesis endeavours to establish the substance of the regime change from GATT to the WTO. It outlines the most significant provisions of the agreement of the Uruguay Round and, subsequently, analyses the change on the level of regime norms underlying the world trade regime. The analysis of regime norms yields insights about the essence of the regime transformation and as to what factors proved to be conducive to cooperation in the sphere of the world trade. The GATT/WTO regime with its extended scope and more sophisticated institutional structures can be regarded as a prime example of successful cooperation. However, the prospects for cooperation between states in an anarchic environment without central authority for enforcement are the subject of a remarkably intense scholarly debate. Therefore it is worthwhile to examine which theoretical framework proves to be most adept at elucidating the circumstances of this instance of cooperation. This thesis applies different theories of international cooperation to the case of the GATT/WTO regime. While a large array of rational theories attempts to explain cooperation from a perspective which focuses on interests and capabilities, a different strand of theories, that of cognitive approaches, emphasizes the paramountcy of ideas and beliefs as variables which explain cooperation. They endogenize the process of interest formation. This thesis seeks to synthesise the strong points of rational and cognitive approaches and thus to reconcile the divergent schools of thought. Its further purpose is to set out factors which are conducive to cooperation.
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  • Date Issued: 1997

The significance of trade policy in promoting the international competitiveness of South African industry

  • Authors: Hofmeyr, Lynne Mary
  • Date: 1996
  • Subjects: South Africa -- Commerce , South Africa -- Commercial policy , International trade
  • Language: English
  • Type: Thesis , Masters , MA
  • Identifier: vital:2781 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002991 , South Africa -- Commerce , South Africa -- Commercial policy , International trade
  • Description: This study proposes to examme the significance of trade policy in promoting the international competitiveness of South African industry during the period from the early 1970s up until the present day. By providing a background of South Africa's past trade policies, it is argued that the origins of South Africa's low levels of competitiveness essentially lie in the apartheid years where trade policies were not linked to the attainment of international competitiveness and improved productivity. The study then reviews the development of South Africa's trade policies in the 1990s. In so doing, it reveals weaknesses in the areas of implementation which are critiqued in greater detail by using the clothing and textile industries as a case study, and other selected examples. The study finally concludes that trade policy is crucial to global competitiveness and that it is the responsibility of all parties concerned to ensure that trade policies enhance and not inhibit competitiveness.
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  • Date Issued: 1996
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