Revised parameter estimation methods for the Pitman monthly rainfall-runoff model
- Authors: Kapangaziwiri, Evison
- Date: 2008
- Subjects: Rain and rainfall -- Mathematical models , Runoff -- Mathematical models , Hydrology -- Mathematical models , Water supply -- South Africa , Water resources development -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MSc
- Identifier: vital:6033 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1006172 , Rain and rainfall -- Mathematical models , Runoff -- Mathematical models , Hydrology -- Mathematical models , Water supply -- South Africa , Water resources development -- South Africa
- Description: In recent years, increased demands have been placed on hydrologists to find the most effective methods of making predictions of hydrologic variables in ungauged basins. A huge part of the southern African region is ungauged and, in gauged basins, the extent to which observed flows represent natural flows is unknown, given unquantified upstream activities. The need to exploit water resources for social and economic development, considered in the light of water scarcity forecasts for the region, makes the reliable quantification of water resources a priority. Contemporary approaches to the problem of hydrological prediction in ungauged basins in the region have relied heavily on calibration against a limited gauged streamflow database and somewhat subjective parameter regionalizations using areas of assumed hydrological similarity. The reliance of these approaches on limited historical records, often of dubious quality, introduces uncertainty in water resources decisions. Thus, it is necessary to develop methods of estimating model parameters that are less reliant on calibration. This thesis addresses the question of whether physical basin properties and the role they play in runoff generation processes can be used directly in the estimation of parameter values of the Pitman monthly rainfall-runoff model. A physically-based approach to estimating the soil moisture accounting and runoff parameters of a conceptual, monthly time-step rainfall-runoff model is proposed. The study investigates the physical meaning of the model parameters, establishes linkages between parameter values and basin physical properties and develops relationships and equations for estimating the parameters taking into account the spatial and temporal scales used in typical model applications. The estimationmethods are then tested in selected gauged basins in southern Africa and the results of model simulations evaluated against historical observed flows. The results of 71 basins chosen from the southern African region suggest that it is possible to directly estimate hydrologically relevant parameters for the Pitman model from physical basin attributes. For South Africa, the statistical and visual fit of the simulations using the revised parameters were at least as good as the current regional sets, albeit the parameter sets being different. In the other countries where no regionalized parameter sets currently exist, simulations were equally good. The availability, within the southern African region, of the appropriate physical basin data and the disparities in the spatial scales and the levels of detail of the data currently available were identified as potential sources of uncertainty. GIS and remote sensing technologies and a widespread use of this revised approach are expected to facilitate access to these data.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2008
Estimating the willingness-to-pay for restoring indigenous vegetation at selected sites in South Africa
- Authors: Tessendorf, Sharon Erica
- Date: 2007
- Subjects: Water resources development -- South Africa , Water-supply -- South Africa , Alien plants -- South Africa , Restoration ecology -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:8999 , http://hdl.handle.net/10948/617 , Water resources development -- South Africa , Water-supply -- South Africa , Alien plants -- South Africa , Restoration ecology -- South Africa
- Description: The Working for Water (WfW) Programme is a public works programme designed to clear South Africa of invasive alien vegetation and to restore lowwater consuming indigenous vegetation in the areas that have been cleared. Funds to clear alien invasives were initially secured on the basis that such a programme would increase water runoff, facilitate biodiversity and ecosystem functioning, and provide social benefits through job creation. The economic merits of the Programme, in terms of increased water yields, has been established in the Western Cape and KwaZulu-Natal, but questioned in the Eastern and Southern Cape. However, there are economic aspects of the studies carried out in the Eastern and Southern Cape that merit more attention than was given them; one of these being the issue of non-water benefits. Preliminary figures emanating from contingent valuation pilot studies conducted at six WfW projects sites indicated that one of these non-water benefits, namely the biodiversity and ecosystem resilience benefit, could be substantial. As such, the primary objective of the present study was to apply the contingent valuation method (CVM) to value people’s preference for indigenous vegetation. This value was intended to serve as a proxy for increased biodiversity and ecosystem resilience at three WfW sites. Despite the controversy surrounding the CVM, it has been found that it is a credible valuation tool. The CVM’s merits lie in its versatility and in the fact that it is the only method available which is capable of obtaining estimates of both nonuse and use values, thus making it applicable for valuing biodiversity. The primary aim of a CVM study is to determine an estimate of the total willingness-to-pay (WTP). In this study, the total WTP figure was calculated by multiplying the median WTP for the local WfW Programme by the total number of user households. The respective total WTP amounts are shown in Table 1. It was anticipated that respondents would be willing to pay more for the national WfW Programme, than for the less inclusive good (i.e. the local WfW Programme). The results correspond with this expectation at the Port Elizabeth and Underberg sites. However, due to strategic factors Worcester respondents were willing to pay more for the local WfW Programme than for the national Programme.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2007
The artificial recharge of urban stormwater runoff in the Atlantis coastal aquifer
- Authors: Wright, Alan
- Date: 1992
- Subjects: Atlantis water resource management scheme , Urban hydrology -- South Africa , Urban runoff -- South Africa , Storm sewers -- South Africa , Water resources development -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MSc
- Identifier: vital:4817 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1005491 , Atlantis water resource management scheme , Urban hydrology -- South Africa , Urban runoff -- South Africa , Storm sewers -- South Africa , Water resources development -- South Africa
- Description: The thesis covers the investigation of the storm water runoff and artificial recharge components of the Atlantis Water Resource Management Scheme in the Southwestern Cape. The objective of the study was to obtain an in-depth knowledge of the process of artificial recharge of urban storm water runoff, in order to identify the most efficient recharge management strategy for the Atlantis aquifer. To achieve the objective it was necessary to first study the existing knowledge on urban storm water hydrology and artificial recharge by spreading, and to create a conceptual model of what might be expected. The study area was then investigated to examine how closely the actual situation was reflected by the conceptual model, enabling recommendations to be made for the sound management of the system. The stormwater runoff component was found to differ from most urban hydrological studies as a result of its large baseflow component. The sandy nature of the catchment, small percentage area of effective impervious surface, and high groundwater table resulted in the baseflow constituting more than 40% of the total storm water runoff and accounting for over 60% of the pollution load. The "first flush" effect established as a major source of pollution in other studies, was found to be of minor significance in this study area. The overall stormwater quality (excluding the noxious industrial baseflow) was found acceptable for artificial recharge within the study area, although the baseflow from the industrial sub-catchments showed the potential for being a major source of pollution in the future. The treated wastewater used for artificial recharge prior to 1987 was found to be unacceptable for recharge purposes. The treated industrial effluent should under no circumstances be recharged up-gradient of the Witzand well field. The treated domestic effluent although of a poorer quality than the resident Witzand well field groundwater could be recharged in order to boost recharge volumes and form a buffer against further intrusion by the poor quality groundwater from the Brakkefontein area. This would however only be acceptable if strict water quality control is maintained and recharge does not take place west of the present basin. The recharge basin was found to be well situated with respect to influencing the Witzand wellfield and maintaining a groundwater buffer against poor quality groundwater flow from the northeast towards the central area of the wellfield. Unfortunately the surrounding low-lying topography and sandy retaining walls have resulted in return flow and raised groundwater-levels. The raised groundwater mound does not comply with the conceptual model and together with the sandy nature of the unsaturated zone resulted in less effective purification during infiltration. The practice of letting large portions of the basin floor dry-out during summer was shown to be beneficial and the periodic cleaning of the deeper portions of the basin essential. The artificially recharged water was found to have influenced the upper portion of the aquifer well beyond the West Coast Road. The study of groundwater quality being a good method for tracing artificially recharged water. The groundwater quality has improved as a result of artificial recharge since the removal of treated wastewater from the recharge basin. The groundwater was (ii) found to be very responsive to the slightest changes in recharge basin water quality or/and quantity. Management of the recharge basin therefore had to be very much of a compromise between qualitative and quantitative approaches. The present approach of recharging all the stormwater runoff throughout the year providing the most efficient compromise under the present conditions. The study revealed that the most efficient recharge management strategy would be the recharge of treated domestic sewage effluent in the present recharge basin and all residential storm water runoff plus industrial "storm flow" stormwater runoff in a new recharge basin located northwest of the present basin. Strict water quality control must be maintained on the water discharged into the basins and an annual wet/dry cycle implemented within the basins to boost infiltration. The entire system should continue being monitored to safe guard the groundwater resource from pollution and over exploitation.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 1992