Financial development and economic growth in South Africa
- Authors: Mhango, Joseph
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: Finance -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/41117 , vital:36358
- Description: Since the identification of financial development for economic growth by Schumpeter (1911), the importance of financial development has been emphasised. However, the nature of the relationship is unclear, whether financial development is demand-following, supply-leading, feedback relationship or no causal relationship with economic growth. The revolution of the relationship between finance and economic growth has left a void of the exact nature of the relationship and importance of financial development in literature and empirical evidence. In addition, the variation of the nexus between financial development and economic growth in developed and developing countries has left policy makers uncertain on the exact policy to employ. In awe of this, after the discovery of diamonds and gold in South Africa, policy makers have attempted to improve the access, depth and efficiency of the finance sector to spur economic growth. However, South Africa has been subject to apartheid, low economic growth, global financial crises, international sanctions, unemployment and other challenges to the finance sector. In light of this, this study aims to empirically investigate the relationship between financial development and economic growth in South Africa. The study used the recently developed financial institutions index and financial markets index by the International Monetary Fund to represent bank-based and market-based financial development. This study utilises annual data over the period 1980 to 2014. The study applied the Autoregressive Disturbed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing, Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) Granger – Causality, Impulse Response Function (IRF) and Variance Decomposition to uncover the relationship between financial development and economic growth in South Africa. The ARDL was selected over the Johansen Cointegration because the variables can be I (1) or I(0) before carrying out the bounds testing. It is more suitable to a small sample size. It uses a reduced form equation, and it provides unbiased estimates of the long-run model. Lastly, it can be transformed into an error correction model. The VECM Granger-Causality was chosen because it represents the short-run and long-run causalities. After selection of the optimal lag, the ARDL bounds testing shows that economic growth, bank-based financial development, market-based financial development, savings and investment have a long-run relationship in South Africa. However, after estimation of the coefficients, financial development has a positive relationship with economic growth, but insignificant and only savings and investment were significant in determining long-run economic growth. The VECM granger-causality results show that financial development (bank and market), savings and investment granger cause economic growth in the long-run. While, economic growth, market-based financial development, savings and investment granger cause bank-based financial development in the long-run. Therefore, a feedback relationship exists between bank-based financial development and economic growth in the long-run. In the short-run, it was clear that bank-based financial development positively causes economic growth. The causality results show that a feedback relationship exists between bank-based financial development and economic growth in South Africa in the short-run as well. The IRF shows that a shock in economic growth negatively and positively affects bank based and market-based financial development respectively. A shock in bank-based financial development causes a positive effect on economic growth. Lastly, a shock in market-based financial development causes a positive effect on economic growth. Whilst, the variance decomposition shows that fluctuations in economic growth are increasingly explained by financial development (bank and market). While, fluctuations in bank-based financial development are increasingly explained by market-based financial development, savings and investment. The fluctuations in market-based financial development are increasingly caused by economic growth, savings and investment. It is recommended that policy makers utilise bank-based financial development for economic growth and reduced unemployment, to increase savings for long-run economic growth. Furthermore, challenges against market-based financial development should be reduced in order to create a positive relationship between investment and economic growth in the long run.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2019
- Authors: Mhango, Joseph
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: Finance -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/41117 , vital:36358
- Description: Since the identification of financial development for economic growth by Schumpeter (1911), the importance of financial development has been emphasised. However, the nature of the relationship is unclear, whether financial development is demand-following, supply-leading, feedback relationship or no causal relationship with economic growth. The revolution of the relationship between finance and economic growth has left a void of the exact nature of the relationship and importance of financial development in literature and empirical evidence. In addition, the variation of the nexus between financial development and economic growth in developed and developing countries has left policy makers uncertain on the exact policy to employ. In awe of this, after the discovery of diamonds and gold in South Africa, policy makers have attempted to improve the access, depth and efficiency of the finance sector to spur economic growth. However, South Africa has been subject to apartheid, low economic growth, global financial crises, international sanctions, unemployment and other challenges to the finance sector. In light of this, this study aims to empirically investigate the relationship between financial development and economic growth in South Africa. The study used the recently developed financial institutions index and financial markets index by the International Monetary Fund to represent bank-based and market-based financial development. This study utilises annual data over the period 1980 to 2014. The study applied the Autoregressive Disturbed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing, Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) Granger – Causality, Impulse Response Function (IRF) and Variance Decomposition to uncover the relationship between financial development and economic growth in South Africa. The ARDL was selected over the Johansen Cointegration because the variables can be I (1) or I(0) before carrying out the bounds testing. It is more suitable to a small sample size. It uses a reduced form equation, and it provides unbiased estimates of the long-run model. Lastly, it can be transformed into an error correction model. The VECM Granger-Causality was chosen because it represents the short-run and long-run causalities. After selection of the optimal lag, the ARDL bounds testing shows that economic growth, bank-based financial development, market-based financial development, savings and investment have a long-run relationship in South Africa. However, after estimation of the coefficients, financial development has a positive relationship with economic growth, but insignificant and only savings and investment were significant in determining long-run economic growth. The VECM granger-causality results show that financial development (bank and market), savings and investment granger cause economic growth in the long-run. While, economic growth, market-based financial development, savings and investment granger cause bank-based financial development in the long-run. Therefore, a feedback relationship exists between bank-based financial development and economic growth in the long-run. In the short-run, it was clear that bank-based financial development positively causes economic growth. The causality results show that a feedback relationship exists between bank-based financial development and economic growth in South Africa in the short-run as well. The IRF shows that a shock in economic growth negatively and positively affects bank based and market-based financial development respectively. A shock in bank-based financial development causes a positive effect on economic growth. Lastly, a shock in market-based financial development causes a positive effect on economic growth. Whilst, the variance decomposition shows that fluctuations in economic growth are increasingly explained by financial development (bank and market). While, fluctuations in bank-based financial development are increasingly explained by market-based financial development, savings and investment. The fluctuations in market-based financial development are increasingly caused by economic growth, savings and investment. It is recommended that policy makers utilise bank-based financial development for economic growth and reduced unemployment, to increase savings for long-run economic growth. Furthermore, challenges against market-based financial development should be reduced in order to create a positive relationship between investment and economic growth in the long run.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2019
The future of banking in South Africa towards 2055: disruptive innovation scenarios
- Authors: Koekemoer, Jonathan
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: Finance -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , Banks and banking -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Doctoral , DPhil
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/40577 , vital:36184
- Description: The research effort developed four possible scenarios for the future of banking in South Africa towards 2055. The scenarios sought to stimulate thought on the possible, probable, plausible and preferred effects of disruptive innovation and regulation in the South African banking sector. The scenarios were developed in strict accordance with the 5 stages, and 9 steps, of the scenario-based planning process of futures studies. A conceptual futures studies model for banking in South Africa was developed to guide and clarify the way in which the research on South African banking can be integrated into the body of existing futures studies theory. The research study began with a comprehensive environmental scan, where various megatrends and driving forces are identified. A PESTEL analysis provided a deeper understanding of the driving forces. A Real-Time Delphi study was conducted in order to validate and prioritise the megatrends and driving forces that emerged. As a result, the research study was able to present four plausible scenarios that provide a better understanding of the future of banking in South Africa over the decades to come. The research presents banking as a complex, multi-faceted sector that is heavily influenced by advances in technology. The Real-Time Delphi research allowed the aggregation of expert knowledge. This is used as a guide to assist decision-makers and industry leaders in the adoption of appropriate business models and strategies towards a preferred future state. The research defined the Integrated Vision as the preferred future state for the South African banking sector towards 2055. The study closes a research gap where current strategies deviate from proposed strategies that drive the achievement of the Integrated Vision by 2055. Finally, contextually aligned practical recommendations are provided to assist decision-makers, industry leaders and change agents to work towards a preferable future state. The proposed recommendations are placed into broad categories of innovation, financial inclusion and collaborative regulatory relationships. The research makes a meaningful contribution to the South African banking sector by introducing a forward-looking, systems-thinking approach to disruptive innovation and regulation in the South African context.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2019
- Authors: Koekemoer, Jonathan
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: Finance -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , Banks and banking -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Doctoral , DPhil
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/40577 , vital:36184
- Description: The research effort developed four possible scenarios for the future of banking in South Africa towards 2055. The scenarios sought to stimulate thought on the possible, probable, plausible and preferred effects of disruptive innovation and regulation in the South African banking sector. The scenarios were developed in strict accordance with the 5 stages, and 9 steps, of the scenario-based planning process of futures studies. A conceptual futures studies model for banking in South Africa was developed to guide and clarify the way in which the research on South African banking can be integrated into the body of existing futures studies theory. The research study began with a comprehensive environmental scan, where various megatrends and driving forces are identified. A PESTEL analysis provided a deeper understanding of the driving forces. A Real-Time Delphi study was conducted in order to validate and prioritise the megatrends and driving forces that emerged. As a result, the research study was able to present four plausible scenarios that provide a better understanding of the future of banking in South Africa over the decades to come. The research presents banking as a complex, multi-faceted sector that is heavily influenced by advances in technology. The Real-Time Delphi research allowed the aggregation of expert knowledge. This is used as a guide to assist decision-makers and industry leaders in the adoption of appropriate business models and strategies towards a preferred future state. The research defined the Integrated Vision as the preferred future state for the South African banking sector towards 2055. The study closes a research gap where current strategies deviate from proposed strategies that drive the achievement of the Integrated Vision by 2055. Finally, contextually aligned practical recommendations are provided to assist decision-makers, industry leaders and change agents to work towards a preferable future state. The proposed recommendations are placed into broad categories of innovation, financial inclusion and collaborative regulatory relationships. The research makes a meaningful contribution to the South African banking sector by introducing a forward-looking, systems-thinking approach to disruptive innovation and regulation in the South African context.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2019
The role and contribution of the South African money market towards financial development
- Authors: Gwenhure, Yvonne
- Date: 2011-03
- Subjects: Money market -- South Africa , Finance -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Master's theses , text
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10353/24139 , vital:62385
- Description: The Money Market has sparked a lot of interest amongst many researchers over the years of evolving financial markets, with particular reference to its impact on Financial Development. It has been viewed as an important stimulus for financial development and ultimately economic growth in developing countries. Therefore this thesis attempts to establish the impact that the money market has on Financial Development in South Africa. The main objective of this thesis is to comparatively examine the impact of the money market on financial development within the banking sector and financial markets sector. Money Markets that function in an era of liberalized interest rates are perceived to have a greater impact on Financial Development than those whose interest rates are repressed. Therefore, the underpinning theoretical literature in this study is the McKinnon-Shaw theory of Financial Liberalization. The study disaggregates measures of financial depth into indicators covering both the banking sector and financial markets sector. A single equation model is used for both the banking and financial markets sectors were the dependant variable for the banking sector model (LRPG) as well as that of the financial markets model (LSBG) are modeled as functions of the money market, real deposit rate, real income and inflation. Stationarity as well as cointegration tests have been employed in the generation of the Error Correction Model. Results obtained confirm that the money market does have a positive impact on financial development and also that factors such as financial liberalization and real income enhance financial development. For policy recommendations, it is therefore imperative to prioritize money market policies in order to enhance financial development in the country. , Thesis (MCom) -- Faculty of Management and Commerce, 2021
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2011-03
- Authors: Gwenhure, Yvonne
- Date: 2011-03
- Subjects: Money market -- South Africa , Finance -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Master's theses , text
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10353/24139 , vital:62385
- Description: The Money Market has sparked a lot of interest amongst many researchers over the years of evolving financial markets, with particular reference to its impact on Financial Development. It has been viewed as an important stimulus for financial development and ultimately economic growth in developing countries. Therefore this thesis attempts to establish the impact that the money market has on Financial Development in South Africa. The main objective of this thesis is to comparatively examine the impact of the money market on financial development within the banking sector and financial markets sector. Money Markets that function in an era of liberalized interest rates are perceived to have a greater impact on Financial Development than those whose interest rates are repressed. Therefore, the underpinning theoretical literature in this study is the McKinnon-Shaw theory of Financial Liberalization. The study disaggregates measures of financial depth into indicators covering both the banking sector and financial markets sector. A single equation model is used for both the banking and financial markets sectors were the dependant variable for the banking sector model (LRPG) as well as that of the financial markets model (LSBG) are modeled as functions of the money market, real deposit rate, real income and inflation. Stationarity as well as cointegration tests have been employed in the generation of the Error Correction Model. Results obtained confirm that the money market does have a positive impact on financial development and also that factors such as financial liberalization and real income enhance financial development. For policy recommendations, it is therefore imperative to prioritize money market policies in order to enhance financial development in the country. , Thesis (MCom) -- Faculty of Management and Commerce, 2021
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2011-03
Volatility transmission across South African financial markets: does the bull – bear distinction matter?
- Authors: Jaramba, Toddy
- Date: 2011
- Subjects: Finance -- South Africa , Financial institutions -- South Africa , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Portfolio management -- South Africa , Stock exchanges -- South Africa , Foreign exchange -- Mathematical models , Bond market -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1106 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1013396
- Description: The volatility transmission in financial markets has important implications for investment decision making, portfolio diversification and overall macroeconomic stability. This paper analyses volatility transmission across four South African financial markets that is the stock, bond, money and foreign exchange markets, using daily data for the period 2000-2010. It also shows whether the volatilities in the SA financial markets present a different behaviour in bull and bear market phases. The effects of the international markets volatility to the local markets volatility was also looked at in this study. To obtain estimates of market volatility, the study experimented with various volatility models that include the GARCH, EGARCH and TARCH. To examine volatility interaction and the transmission of volatility shocks, a VAR model was estimated together with block exogeneity, impulse response and variance decomposition. The study found that there is limited volatility transmission across the SA financial markets. The study also found that the money market is the most exogenous of all markets since the other three financial markets volatility is insignificant to the money market (see impulse response results). For the bond market, volatility transmission was characterized with a decreasing trend. With regard to international markets volatility, it concluded that, the shocks in the international markets will eventually affect the movement in the local markets. The results also highlighted that, world and local markets are important in accelerating the volatility transmission in SA financial markets depending on whether they are in their bull or bear phases. In the case of South Africa, the study found that volatility transmission across markets is higher during bear market periods than bull market periods. Basing on the study results which show that the volatility transmission is limited across SA financial markets, the implication to local and international investors is that there is a greater potential for diversifying risk by investing in different South African financial markets.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2011
- Authors: Jaramba, Toddy
- Date: 2011
- Subjects: Finance -- South Africa , Financial institutions -- South Africa , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Portfolio management -- South Africa , Stock exchanges -- South Africa , Foreign exchange -- Mathematical models , Bond market -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1106 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1013396
- Description: The volatility transmission in financial markets has important implications for investment decision making, portfolio diversification and overall macroeconomic stability. This paper analyses volatility transmission across four South African financial markets that is the stock, bond, money and foreign exchange markets, using daily data for the period 2000-2010. It also shows whether the volatilities in the SA financial markets present a different behaviour in bull and bear market phases. The effects of the international markets volatility to the local markets volatility was also looked at in this study. To obtain estimates of market volatility, the study experimented with various volatility models that include the GARCH, EGARCH and TARCH. To examine volatility interaction and the transmission of volatility shocks, a VAR model was estimated together with block exogeneity, impulse response and variance decomposition. The study found that there is limited volatility transmission across the SA financial markets. The study also found that the money market is the most exogenous of all markets since the other three financial markets volatility is insignificant to the money market (see impulse response results). For the bond market, volatility transmission was characterized with a decreasing trend. With regard to international markets volatility, it concluded that, the shocks in the international markets will eventually affect the movement in the local markets. The results also highlighted that, world and local markets are important in accelerating the volatility transmission in SA financial markets depending on whether they are in their bull or bear phases. In the case of South Africa, the study found that volatility transmission across markets is higher during bear market periods than bull market periods. Basing on the study results which show that the volatility transmission is limited across SA financial markets, the implication to local and international investors is that there is a greater potential for diversifying risk by investing in different South African financial markets.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2011
Financial instability in South Africa : trends and interactions within the financial markets
- Authors: Shikwambana, Jamela
- Date: 2007 , 2013-08-06
- Subjects: Finance -- South Africa , Financial institutions -- South Africa , Economic stabilization -- South Africa , Stock exchanges -- South Africa , Stocks -- Prices -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Equilibrium (Economics)
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1043 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1005911 , Finance -- South Africa , Financial institutions -- South Africa , Economic stabilization -- South Africa , Stock exchanges -- South Africa , Stocks -- Prices -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Equilibrium (Economics)
- Description: This study seeks to investigate the trends and interactions of market volatility as a source of instability in the South African financial markets. Financial instability can be manifested in the form of banking and currency crisis, institutional failures and extreme asset price volatility. This study, however, focuses on a single aspect of financial instability - asset price volatility. Asset price volatility reflects changes in market expectations as investors react to such changes, and thus on its own is not necessarily a source of instability. However, volatility spillovers can propagate volatility shocks across the market, increasing the risk of widespread instability. Using a combination of graphical and trend analysis as well as more formal estimation techniques, the study examined volatility in the stock, money and foreign exchange markets. To obtain estimates of market volatility, the study experimented with various volatility models that include the GARCH, TARCH and EGARCH. An analysis of volatility interactions and the transmission of volatility shocks across the market is crucial to understanding financial instability. To examine volatility interaction and the transmission of volatility shocks, a VAR model was estimated. This framework allowed us to examine the propagation of shocks across the markets. Volatility in the financial markets was found to be highly persistent and in the case of exchange rates, volatility was also characterised by an increasing trend. Significant linkages between the financial markets were found. The links also extended to the volatility relationship as evidenced by significant volatility spillovers across the markets. While volatility spillovers from the money market were found in the stock market and the foreign exchange market, no volatility spillovers from these markets were found in the money market. Thus the money market was identified as the major source of volatility spillovers and shocks in the financial markets. These results highlighted the role of monetary policy in the financial system, specifically the need to make monetary policy stable and predictable to ensure that interest rate shocks are not an additional source of instability. , KMBT_363 , Adobe Acrobat 9.54 Paper Capture Plug-in
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2007
- Authors: Shikwambana, Jamela
- Date: 2007 , 2013-08-06
- Subjects: Finance -- South Africa , Financial institutions -- South Africa , Economic stabilization -- South Africa , Stock exchanges -- South Africa , Stocks -- Prices -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Equilibrium (Economics)
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1043 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1005911 , Finance -- South Africa , Financial institutions -- South Africa , Economic stabilization -- South Africa , Stock exchanges -- South Africa , Stocks -- Prices -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Equilibrium (Economics)
- Description: This study seeks to investigate the trends and interactions of market volatility as a source of instability in the South African financial markets. Financial instability can be manifested in the form of banking and currency crisis, institutional failures and extreme asset price volatility. This study, however, focuses on a single aspect of financial instability - asset price volatility. Asset price volatility reflects changes in market expectations as investors react to such changes, and thus on its own is not necessarily a source of instability. However, volatility spillovers can propagate volatility shocks across the market, increasing the risk of widespread instability. Using a combination of graphical and trend analysis as well as more formal estimation techniques, the study examined volatility in the stock, money and foreign exchange markets. To obtain estimates of market volatility, the study experimented with various volatility models that include the GARCH, TARCH and EGARCH. An analysis of volatility interactions and the transmission of volatility shocks across the market is crucial to understanding financial instability. To examine volatility interaction and the transmission of volatility shocks, a VAR model was estimated. This framework allowed us to examine the propagation of shocks across the markets. Volatility in the financial markets was found to be highly persistent and in the case of exchange rates, volatility was also characterised by an increasing trend. Significant linkages between the financial markets were found. The links also extended to the volatility relationship as evidenced by significant volatility spillovers across the markets. While volatility spillovers from the money market were found in the stock market and the foreign exchange market, no volatility spillovers from these markets were found in the money market. Thus the money market was identified as the major source of volatility spillovers and shocks in the financial markets. These results highlighted the role of monetary policy in the financial system, specifically the need to make monetary policy stable and predictable to ensure that interest rate shocks are not an additional source of instability. , KMBT_363 , Adobe Acrobat 9.54 Paper Capture Plug-in
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2007
The term structure of interest rates and economic activity in South Africa
- Authors: Shelile, Teboho
- Date: 2007
- Subjects: Finance -- South Africa , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic conditions -- 21st century
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:994 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002729 , Finance -- South Africa , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic conditions -- 21st century
- Description: Many research papers have documented the positive relationship between the slope of the yield curve and future real economic activity in different countries and different time periods. One explanation of this link is based on monetary policy. The forecasting ability of the term spread on economic growth is based on the fact that interest rates reflect the expectations of investors about the future economic situation when deciding about their plans for consumption and investment. This thesis examined the predictive ability of the term structure of interest rates on economic activity, and the effects of different monetary policy regimes on the predictive ability of the term spread. The South African experience offers a unique opportunity to examine this issue, as the country has experienced numerous monetary policy frameworks since the 1970s. The study employed the Generalised Method Moments technique, since it is considered to be more efficient than Ordinary Least Squares. Results presented in this thesis established that the term structure successfully predicted real economic activity during the entire research period with the exception of the last sub-period (2000-2004) when using the multivariate model. In the periods of financial market liberalisation and interest rates deregulation the term structure was found to be a better predictor of economic activity in South Africa. These findings emphasise the importance of considering the prevailing economic environment in testing the term structure theory.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2007
- Authors: Shelile, Teboho
- Date: 2007
- Subjects: Finance -- South Africa , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic conditions -- 21st century
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:994 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002729 , Finance -- South Africa , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic conditions -- 21st century
- Description: Many research papers have documented the positive relationship between the slope of the yield curve and future real economic activity in different countries and different time periods. One explanation of this link is based on monetary policy. The forecasting ability of the term spread on economic growth is based on the fact that interest rates reflect the expectations of investors about the future economic situation when deciding about their plans for consumption and investment. This thesis examined the predictive ability of the term structure of interest rates on economic activity, and the effects of different monetary policy regimes on the predictive ability of the term spread. The South African experience offers a unique opportunity to examine this issue, as the country has experienced numerous monetary policy frameworks since the 1970s. The study employed the Generalised Method Moments technique, since it is considered to be more efficient than Ordinary Least Squares. Results presented in this thesis established that the term structure successfully predicted real economic activity during the entire research period with the exception of the last sub-period (2000-2004) when using the multivariate model. In the periods of financial market liberalisation and interest rates deregulation the term structure was found to be a better predictor of economic activity in South Africa. These findings emphasise the importance of considering the prevailing economic environment in testing the term structure theory.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2007
Monetary policy transmission in South Africa: the prime rate-demand for credit phase
- Authors: Lehobo, Limakatso
- Date: 2006
- Subjects: South African Reserve Bank , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Banks and banking -- South Africa , Bank loans -- South Africa , Financial institutions -- South Africa , Finance -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1128 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1020850
- Description: A voluminous literature attempts to explain the various channels of the monetary policy transmission mechanism through which central banks ultimately achieve price stability. However, most research focuses on interest rate pass-through and the demand for money phase, while there is limited research on the demand for credit. This study endeavours to contribute to the understanding of this neglected phase of monetary policy transmission by exploring the response of the real demand for bank credit by the private sector to changes in the real prime rate from 1990:1 to 2004:4 in South Africa. Firstly, the behaviour of the real prime rate in relation to the repo rate is explored using graphical analysis. The study observes that an increase in the repo rate causes an increase in the real prime rate, such that there is always a margin of three or four percentage points between the two rates. Secondly, using secondary data, the Johansen methodology is used to determine the relationship between the demand for bank credit and its determinants (GDP, inflation, real prime rate and real yield on government bonds). Two co-integrating relationships are found. The Gaussian errors from one co-integrating vector are used to model the Vector Error Correction Model, which provides the short-run dynamics and the long-run results, through the use of Eviews 5 software. The results of the study show that while all other variables are negatively related to the demand for bank credit in the long-run, GDP has a positive influence. In the short-run, yield on government bonds and inflation coefficients depict a positive association, while the coefficients of real prime rate and GDP are negative. The error correction coefficient is -0.32, which implies that a 32% adjustment to equilibrium happens in the demand for bank credit in a quarter and that the complete adjustment takes about three quarters to complete. Thirdly, the generalised impulse responses results indicate that the impact on the real prime rate affects the demand for bank credit from the first quarter. The study concludes that the real prime rate has a negative impact on the demand for credit both in the short-run and long-run.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2006
- Authors: Lehobo, Limakatso
- Date: 2006
- Subjects: South African Reserve Bank , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Banks and banking -- South Africa , Bank loans -- South Africa , Financial institutions -- South Africa , Finance -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1128 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1020850
- Description: A voluminous literature attempts to explain the various channels of the monetary policy transmission mechanism through which central banks ultimately achieve price stability. However, most research focuses on interest rate pass-through and the demand for money phase, while there is limited research on the demand for credit. This study endeavours to contribute to the understanding of this neglected phase of monetary policy transmission by exploring the response of the real demand for bank credit by the private sector to changes in the real prime rate from 1990:1 to 2004:4 in South Africa. Firstly, the behaviour of the real prime rate in relation to the repo rate is explored using graphical analysis. The study observes that an increase in the repo rate causes an increase in the real prime rate, such that there is always a margin of three or four percentage points between the two rates. Secondly, using secondary data, the Johansen methodology is used to determine the relationship between the demand for bank credit and its determinants (GDP, inflation, real prime rate and real yield on government bonds). Two co-integrating relationships are found. The Gaussian errors from one co-integrating vector are used to model the Vector Error Correction Model, which provides the short-run dynamics and the long-run results, through the use of Eviews 5 software. The results of the study show that while all other variables are negatively related to the demand for bank credit in the long-run, GDP has a positive influence. In the short-run, yield on government bonds and inflation coefficients depict a positive association, while the coefficients of real prime rate and GDP are negative. The error correction coefficient is -0.32, which implies that a 32% adjustment to equilibrium happens in the demand for bank credit in a quarter and that the complete adjustment takes about three quarters to complete. Thirdly, the generalised impulse responses results indicate that the impact on the real prime rate affects the demand for bank credit from the first quarter. The study concludes that the real prime rate has a negative impact on the demand for credit both in the short-run and long-run.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2006
The behaviour and fundamental determinants of the real exchange rate in South Africa
- Authors: Takaendesa, Peter
- Date: 2006
- Subjects: Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa , Terms of trade -- South Africa , Finance -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:960 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002694 , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa , Terms of trade -- South Africa , Finance -- South Africa
- Description: Real exchange rates have important effects on production, employment and trade, so it is crucial to understand the factors responsible for their variations. This study analyses the main determinants of the real exchange rate and the dynamic adjustment of the real exchange rate following shocks to those determinants, using quarterly South African data covering the period 1975 to 2005. It begins with a review of literature on the determinants of the real exchange rate and provides an updated background on the exchange rate system in South Africa. An empirical model linking the real exchange rate to its theoretical determinants is then specified. In contrast to previous analyses, this study augments the cointegration and vector autoregression (VAR) analysis with impulse response and variance decomposition analyses to provide robust long run effects and short run dynamic effects on the real exchange rate. The variables that have been found to have a long run relationship with the real exchange rate include the terms of trade, real interest rate differential, domestic credit, openness and technological progress. The estimate of the speed of adjustment coefficient found in this study indicates that about a third of the variation in the real exchange rate from its equilibrium level is corrected within a quarter. The impulse response functions broadly corroborate the theoretical predictions, but only the terms of trade, domestic credit and openness have a significant impact on the real exchange rate in the short run. However, only shocks to the terms of trade and domestic credit have persistent effects on the real exchange rate. Results from the variance decompositions are largely similar to those from the impulse response analysis. The terms of trade, domestic credit and openness are the only variables found to significantly explain the variation in the real exchange rate. The most interesting result that emerged from this analysis and is supported by previous research is that among other determinants, the terms of trade explain the largest proportion of the variation in the real exchange. On balance, the evidence therefore suggests that real exchange rate fluctuations are predominantly equilibrium responses to real and monetary shocks rather than fiscal policy shocks.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2006
- Authors: Takaendesa, Peter
- Date: 2006
- Subjects: Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa , Terms of trade -- South Africa , Finance -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:960 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002694 , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa , Terms of trade -- South Africa , Finance -- South Africa
- Description: Real exchange rates have important effects on production, employment and trade, so it is crucial to understand the factors responsible for their variations. This study analyses the main determinants of the real exchange rate and the dynamic adjustment of the real exchange rate following shocks to those determinants, using quarterly South African data covering the period 1975 to 2005. It begins with a review of literature on the determinants of the real exchange rate and provides an updated background on the exchange rate system in South Africa. An empirical model linking the real exchange rate to its theoretical determinants is then specified. In contrast to previous analyses, this study augments the cointegration and vector autoregression (VAR) analysis with impulse response and variance decomposition analyses to provide robust long run effects and short run dynamic effects on the real exchange rate. The variables that have been found to have a long run relationship with the real exchange rate include the terms of trade, real interest rate differential, domestic credit, openness and technological progress. The estimate of the speed of adjustment coefficient found in this study indicates that about a third of the variation in the real exchange rate from its equilibrium level is corrected within a quarter. The impulse response functions broadly corroborate the theoretical predictions, but only the terms of trade, domestic credit and openness have a significant impact on the real exchange rate in the short run. However, only shocks to the terms of trade and domestic credit have persistent effects on the real exchange rate. Results from the variance decompositions are largely similar to those from the impulse response analysis. The terms of trade, domestic credit and openness are the only variables found to significantly explain the variation in the real exchange rate. The most interesting result that emerged from this analysis and is supported by previous research is that among other determinants, the terms of trade explain the largest proportion of the variation in the real exchange. On balance, the evidence therefore suggests that real exchange rate fluctuations are predominantly equilibrium responses to real and monetary shocks rather than fiscal policy shocks.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2006
The economic valuation of cultural events in developing countries: combining market and non-market valuation techniques at the South African National Arts Festival
- Authors: Snowball, Jeanette Dalziel
- Date: 2006
- Subjects: Standard Bank National Arts Festival -- Economic aspects , Performing arts festivals -- Economic aspects -- South Africa -- Grahamstown , Arts -- South Africa -- Economic aspects , Finance -- South Africa , Arts -- South Africa -- Finance , Arts -- South Africa -- Political aspects , Finance, Public -- South Africa , South Africa -- Politics and government -- 1994-
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Doctoral , PhD
- Identifier: vital:969 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002703 , Standard Bank National Arts Festival -- Economic aspects , Performing arts festivals -- Economic aspects -- South Africa -- Grahamstown , Arts -- South Africa -- Economic aspects , Finance -- South Africa , Arts -- South Africa -- Finance , Arts -- South Africa -- Political aspects , Finance, Public -- South Africa , South Africa -- Politics and government -- 1994-
- Description: The arts in many countries, but particularly in developing ones, are coming under increasing financial pressure and finding it difficult to justify the increases in government funding needed to maintain and grow the cultural sector. The trend in cultural economics, as well as in other areas, appears to be towards including qualitative valuations, as well as the more traditional quantitative ones. This thesis argues that the value of cultural events should include long term historical qualitative analysis, financial or economic impact and a valuation of the positive externalities provided by cultural events and that any one of these should only be regarded as a partial analysis. Four methods of valuing the arts using the South African National Arts Festival (NAF) as an example are demonstrated. Firstly, a qualitative historical analysis of the role of the NAF in South Africa’s transformation process from Apartheid to the democratic New South Africa is examined, using theories of cultural capital as a theoretical basis. It is argued that the value of cultural events needs to take into account long-term influences especially in countries undergoing political and social transformation. The second valuation method applied is the traditional economic impact study. Four economic impact studies conducted on the NAF are discussed and methodologies compared. It is concluded that, despite the skepticism of many cultural economists, the method can provide a useful partial valuation and may also be used for effective lobbying for government support of the arts. Chapter four discusses willingness to pay studies conducted at the NAF in 2000 and 2003 (as well as a pilot study conducted at the Klein Karoo Nationale Kunstefees). It is found that lower income and education groups do benefit from the positive externalities provided by the Festival and that this is reflected in their willingness to pay to support it. It is also argued that such contingent valuation studies can provide a reasonably reliable valuation of Festival externalities, but that they may be partly capturing current or future expected financial gains as well. Finally, the relatively new choice experiment methodology (also called conjoint analysis) is demonstrated on visitors to the NAF. The great advantage of this method in valuing cultural events is that it provides part-worths of various Festival attributes for different demographic groups. This enables organizes to structure the programme in such a way as to attract previously excluded groups and to conduct a cost-benefit analysis for each part of the Festival.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2006
- Authors: Snowball, Jeanette Dalziel
- Date: 2006
- Subjects: Standard Bank National Arts Festival -- Economic aspects , Performing arts festivals -- Economic aspects -- South Africa -- Grahamstown , Arts -- South Africa -- Economic aspects , Finance -- South Africa , Arts -- South Africa -- Finance , Arts -- South Africa -- Political aspects , Finance, Public -- South Africa , South Africa -- Politics and government -- 1994-
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Doctoral , PhD
- Identifier: vital:969 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002703 , Standard Bank National Arts Festival -- Economic aspects , Performing arts festivals -- Economic aspects -- South Africa -- Grahamstown , Arts -- South Africa -- Economic aspects , Finance -- South Africa , Arts -- South Africa -- Finance , Arts -- South Africa -- Political aspects , Finance, Public -- South Africa , South Africa -- Politics and government -- 1994-
- Description: The arts in many countries, but particularly in developing ones, are coming under increasing financial pressure and finding it difficult to justify the increases in government funding needed to maintain and grow the cultural sector. The trend in cultural economics, as well as in other areas, appears to be towards including qualitative valuations, as well as the more traditional quantitative ones. This thesis argues that the value of cultural events should include long term historical qualitative analysis, financial or economic impact and a valuation of the positive externalities provided by cultural events and that any one of these should only be regarded as a partial analysis. Four methods of valuing the arts using the South African National Arts Festival (NAF) as an example are demonstrated. Firstly, a qualitative historical analysis of the role of the NAF in South Africa’s transformation process from Apartheid to the democratic New South Africa is examined, using theories of cultural capital as a theoretical basis. It is argued that the value of cultural events needs to take into account long-term influences especially in countries undergoing political and social transformation. The second valuation method applied is the traditional economic impact study. Four economic impact studies conducted on the NAF are discussed and methodologies compared. It is concluded that, despite the skepticism of many cultural economists, the method can provide a useful partial valuation and may also be used for effective lobbying for government support of the arts. Chapter four discusses willingness to pay studies conducted at the NAF in 2000 and 2003 (as well as a pilot study conducted at the Klein Karoo Nationale Kunstefees). It is found that lower income and education groups do benefit from the positive externalities provided by the Festival and that this is reflected in their willingness to pay to support it. It is also argued that such contingent valuation studies can provide a reasonably reliable valuation of Festival externalities, but that they may be partly capturing current or future expected financial gains as well. Finally, the relatively new choice experiment methodology (also called conjoint analysis) is demonstrated on visitors to the NAF. The great advantage of this method in valuing cultural events is that it provides part-worths of various Festival attributes for different demographic groups. This enables organizes to structure the programme in such a way as to attract previously excluded groups and to conduct a cost-benefit analysis for each part of the Festival.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2006
The role of bank finance in small firm growth : a case study
- Authors: Musengi, Sandra
- Date: 2003
- Subjects: Banks and banking -- South Africa , Finance -- South Africa , Small business -- South Africa -- Finance , Small business -- South Africa -- Growth -- Case studies , Entrepreneurship -- South Africa , New business enterprises -- South Africa , Bank loans -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1176 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002793 , Banks and banking -- South Africa , Finance -- South Africa , Small business -- South Africa -- Finance , Small business -- South Africa -- Growth -- Case studies , Entrepreneurship -- South Africa , New business enterprises -- South Africa , Bank loans -- South Africa
- Description: The debate concerning small firm access to finance continues. The proliferation of research of the issue underlines the importance attached in promoting a strong entrepreneurial culture within a country. Small firms are significant to economic growth if they are growing. Central to this significance is ascertaining the role of finance and in particular bank finance in accelerating small growth potential. The case study, through its ontological, epistemological and methodological position, draws on a document review and interview material from small firm owners and key informants to explore the role of bank finance in small firm growth. Case study evidence reveals that small firm owners do not intend to finance firm growth with bank finance but prefer to finance growth with internally generated funds. The owners indicate that non-financial and behavioural factors, such as, maintaining decision-making control, experience accessing bank finance, the perception of the banking relationship and growth aspirations of owners may be more important in dertermining the finance structure for firm growth. From the bank's perspective, findings suggest that risk assessment, financial viability of the enterprise and provision of collateral are more important in the lending decisions; findings supported by an analysis of selected documents. The small sample of small firm owners, bank representatives, experts and documents makes it difficult to generalize the findings. However, the findings are significant because exploring the issue from different perspectives presents invaluable insights, which can be investigated further to assist small firm owners, to develop finance products geared for small firm operations, and in the development of the knowledge base on finance-related issues in the South African context.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2003
- Authors: Musengi, Sandra
- Date: 2003
- Subjects: Banks and banking -- South Africa , Finance -- South Africa , Small business -- South Africa -- Finance , Small business -- South Africa -- Growth -- Case studies , Entrepreneurship -- South Africa , New business enterprises -- South Africa , Bank loans -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1176 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002793 , Banks and banking -- South Africa , Finance -- South Africa , Small business -- South Africa -- Finance , Small business -- South Africa -- Growth -- Case studies , Entrepreneurship -- South Africa , New business enterprises -- South Africa , Bank loans -- South Africa
- Description: The debate concerning small firm access to finance continues. The proliferation of research of the issue underlines the importance attached in promoting a strong entrepreneurial culture within a country. Small firms are significant to economic growth if they are growing. Central to this significance is ascertaining the role of finance and in particular bank finance in accelerating small growth potential. The case study, through its ontological, epistemological and methodological position, draws on a document review and interview material from small firm owners and key informants to explore the role of bank finance in small firm growth. Case study evidence reveals that small firm owners do not intend to finance firm growth with bank finance but prefer to finance growth with internally generated funds. The owners indicate that non-financial and behavioural factors, such as, maintaining decision-making control, experience accessing bank finance, the perception of the banking relationship and growth aspirations of owners may be more important in dertermining the finance structure for firm growth. From the bank's perspective, findings suggest that risk assessment, financial viability of the enterprise and provision of collateral are more important in the lending decisions; findings supported by an analysis of selected documents. The small sample of small firm owners, bank representatives, experts and documents makes it difficult to generalize the findings. However, the findings are significant because exploring the issue from different perspectives presents invaluable insights, which can be investigated further to assist small firm owners, to develop finance products geared for small firm operations, and in the development of the knowledge base on finance-related issues in the South African context.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2003
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