Volatility transmission across South African financial markets: does the bull – bear distinction matter?
- Authors: Jaramba, Toddy
- Date: 2011
- Subjects: Finance -- South Africa , Financial institutions -- South Africa , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Portfolio management -- South Africa , Stock exchanges -- South Africa , Foreign exchange -- Mathematical models , Bond market -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1106 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1013396
- Description: The volatility transmission in financial markets has important implications for investment decision making, portfolio diversification and overall macroeconomic stability. This paper analyses volatility transmission across four South African financial markets that is the stock, bond, money and foreign exchange markets, using daily data for the period 2000-2010. It also shows whether the volatilities in the SA financial markets present a different behaviour in bull and bear market phases. The effects of the international markets volatility to the local markets volatility was also looked at in this study. To obtain estimates of market volatility, the study experimented with various volatility models that include the GARCH, EGARCH and TARCH. To examine volatility interaction and the transmission of volatility shocks, a VAR model was estimated together with block exogeneity, impulse response and variance decomposition. The study found that there is limited volatility transmission across the SA financial markets. The study also found that the money market is the most exogenous of all markets since the other three financial markets volatility is insignificant to the money market (see impulse response results). For the bond market, volatility transmission was characterized with a decreasing trend. With regard to international markets volatility, it concluded that, the shocks in the international markets will eventually affect the movement in the local markets. The results also highlighted that, world and local markets are important in accelerating the volatility transmission in SA financial markets depending on whether they are in their bull or bear phases. In the case of South Africa, the study found that volatility transmission across markets is higher during bear market periods than bull market periods. Basing on the study results which show that the volatility transmission is limited across SA financial markets, the implication to local and international investors is that there is a greater potential for diversifying risk by investing in different South African financial markets.
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Monetary policy transmission in South Africa: the prime rate-demand for credit phase
- Authors: Lehobo, Limakatso
- Date: 2006
- Subjects: South African Reserve Bank , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Banks and banking -- South Africa , Bank loans -- South Africa , Financial institutions -- South Africa , Finance -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1128 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1020850
- Description: A voluminous literature attempts to explain the various channels of the monetary policy transmission mechanism through which central banks ultimately achieve price stability. However, most research focuses on interest rate pass-through and the demand for money phase, while there is limited research on the demand for credit. This study endeavours to contribute to the understanding of this neglected phase of monetary policy transmission by exploring the response of the real demand for bank credit by the private sector to changes in the real prime rate from 1990:1 to 2004:4 in South Africa. Firstly, the behaviour of the real prime rate in relation to the repo rate is explored using graphical analysis. The study observes that an increase in the repo rate causes an increase in the real prime rate, such that there is always a margin of three or four percentage points between the two rates. Secondly, using secondary data, the Johansen methodology is used to determine the relationship between the demand for bank credit and its determinants (GDP, inflation, real prime rate and real yield on government bonds). Two co-integrating relationships are found. The Gaussian errors from one co-integrating vector are used to model the Vector Error Correction Model, which provides the short-run dynamics and the long-run results, through the use of Eviews 5 software. The results of the study show that while all other variables are negatively related to the demand for bank credit in the long-run, GDP has a positive influence. In the short-run, yield on government bonds and inflation coefficients depict a positive association, while the coefficients of real prime rate and GDP are negative. The error correction coefficient is -0.32, which implies that a 32% adjustment to equilibrium happens in the demand for bank credit in a quarter and that the complete adjustment takes about three quarters to complete. Thirdly, the generalised impulse responses results indicate that the impact on the real prime rate affects the demand for bank credit from the first quarter. The study concludes that the real prime rate has a negative impact on the demand for credit both in the short-run and long-run.
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