The market efficiency hypothesis and the behaviour of stock returns on the JSE securities exchange
- Authors: Mabhunu, Mind
- Date: 2004
- Subjects: Johannesburg Stock Exchange , Stocks -- Prices -- South Africa , Stock exchanges -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1027 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002762 , Johannesburg Stock Exchange , Stocks -- Prices -- South Africa , Stock exchanges -- South Africa
- Description: While the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EHM) has been widely accepted as robust by many researchers in the field of capital markets, the hypothesis’ robustness has been under increased scrutiny and question lately. In the light of the concerns over the robustness of the EMH, the weak form efficiency of the JSE is tested. Stock returns used in the analysis were controlled for thin trading and it was discovered that once returns are controlled for thin trading, they are independent of each other across time. Some of the previous studies found the JSE to be inefficient in the weak form but this research found that the JSE is efficient in the weak form. A comparison is also made between the JSE and four other African stock markets and the JSE is found to be more efficient than the other markets. The developments on the JSE, which have improved information dissemination as well as the efficiency of trading, contributed to the improvement of the JSE’s efficiency. The improvement in operational efficiency and turnover from the late 1990s has also made a major contribution to the improvement in the weak form efficiency of the JSE. Theory proposes that if markets are efficient then professional investment management is of little value if any; hence the position of professional investment managers in efficient markets is investigated. Although the JSE is found to be efficient, at least in the weak form, it is argued that achieving efficiency does not necessarily make the investment manager’s role obsolete. Investment managers are needed even when the market can be proved to be efficient.
- Full Text:
- Authors: Mabhunu, Mind
- Date: 2004
- Subjects: Johannesburg Stock Exchange , Stocks -- Prices -- South Africa , Stock exchanges -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1027 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002762 , Johannesburg Stock Exchange , Stocks -- Prices -- South Africa , Stock exchanges -- South Africa
- Description: While the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EHM) has been widely accepted as robust by many researchers in the field of capital markets, the hypothesis’ robustness has been under increased scrutiny and question lately. In the light of the concerns over the robustness of the EMH, the weak form efficiency of the JSE is tested. Stock returns used in the analysis were controlled for thin trading and it was discovered that once returns are controlled for thin trading, they are independent of each other across time. Some of the previous studies found the JSE to be inefficient in the weak form but this research found that the JSE is efficient in the weak form. A comparison is also made between the JSE and four other African stock markets and the JSE is found to be more efficient than the other markets. The developments on the JSE, which have improved information dissemination as well as the efficiency of trading, contributed to the improvement of the JSE’s efficiency. The improvement in operational efficiency and turnover from the late 1990s has also made a major contribution to the improvement in the weak form efficiency of the JSE. Theory proposes that if markets are efficient then professional investment management is of little value if any; hence the position of professional investment managers in efficient markets is investigated. Although the JSE is found to be efficient, at least in the weak form, it is argued that achieving efficiency does not necessarily make the investment manager’s role obsolete. Investment managers are needed even when the market can be proved to be efficient.
- Full Text:
The new economic geography of SADC free trade area
- Authors: Hess, Simon Peter
- Date: 2004
- Subjects: Southern African Development Community Free trade -- Africa, Southern Economic geography Industries -- Africa, Southern
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MEcon
- Identifier: vital:932 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1001648
- Description: The current implementation of a free trade area in SADC has given rise to concerns that the present location of industry in the region will be adversely affected. Specifically, many of the smaller and less-developed countries fear that this change will result in a loss of their industry towards the more developed members, and particularly towards South Africa. This study uses the framework of the new economic geography to address these concerns. The new economic geography is a body of theory that has arisen in the last decade and allows for a dynamic analysis of the process of regional integration. Studies of such dynamic effects in the developing country context are exceedingly scarce, and particularly so in southern Africa. Another area of little research is in the comparison of the evolving industrial structure of different regional blocs. Thus, in response to this gap in the literature and in order to address the concerns of polarisation of industry within the SADC region, a two-pronged empirical approach is taken. The study first conducts a review of the spatial distribution of industry within SADC from 1970 to 1999. This is achieved through the calculation and examination of industrial locational Gini coefficients, measuring the relative degree of concentration of 28 ISIC (rev 2) industries for the years 1970, 1980, 1985, 1990, 1995 and 1999. Secondly, an empirical comparison is conducted with other blocs that are in the process of deepening regional integration, namely the European Union and Mercosur. Again, this is done through the calculation of locational Gini coefficients for individual industries for all three blocs at five year intervals from 1980 to 1995, and then for 1999. The average level of concentration within SADC is found to increase steadily from 1970 to 1990. Between 1990 and 1995, the level of concentration increases further, but at a lower rate, and, by 1999 industry begins to disperse. The Gini coefficient is a relative measure, and thus does not measure the absolute level of concentration. Thus, much of the increase in concentration seen is towards peripheral countries. To further interpret the Gini, the changes in concentration are compared to the absolute changes in manufacturing employment in South Africa. From this analysis, eight of the 28 industries analysed show particular tendencies to concentrate in the periphery. These are beverages, textiles, wearing apparel, paper and products, rubber products, other non-metallic mineral products, transport equipment, and professional and scientific equipment. Likewise, another six industries become more concentrated in South Africa over this time, namely food products, printing and publishing, industrial chemicals, petroleum refineries, miscellaneous petroleum and coal products, and electrical machinery. According to the Gini coefficient, the tobacco industry is by far the most concentrated, while the wood products industry is the most dispersed. It is also found that scale-intensive industries tend to be among the most concentrated. In the cross-bloc comparison, Mercosur has the lowest level of aggregate concentration with an average Gini of 0.08 in 1999. This compares with Ginis of 0.28 for the EU, and 0.22 for SADC. The EU has the largest increase in concentration over the period, while the concentration in Mercosur falls during the 1980s, increases in the mid 1990s and then falls again by 1999. A common theme, however, between all three blocs is a trend towards dispersion in the late 1990s. This is particularly apparent in SADC and Mercosur where the Gini decreases in value, while in the EU, the Gini only increases marginally in this period. Other studies of the EU have indicated that industry was starting to disperse at this time. This finding would be more apparent at a greater level of industrial disaggregation. The following industries are found to be agglomerated above the average level in all three blocs: tobacco, miscellaneous petroleum and coal products, and pottery china and earthenware. Conversely, transport equipment, paper and products, machinery except electrical, plastic products, rubber products, and fabricated metal products tend to be more dispersed across all three. Perhaps more interesting is that there appears to be some commonality between industries that become more agglomerated across all three blocs, while industries that dispersed tend to be region specific. The industries that show universal agglomeration tendencies are the highly sensitive wearing apparel and textiles industries, in addition to industrial chemicals, printing and publishing, iron and steel, and plastic products. In relation to SADC, the first two of these industries show an increased concentration in the periphery, as in the EU, while the remaining industries show tendencies to concentrate in the core. The new economic geography predicts that, as the presently high levels of transport costs begin to fall in SADC, industry will tend to concentrate in the core. However, the results of this study indicate that the effect on manufacturing is, to a large extent, sector specific, with some manufacturing industries concentrating in the core and others in the periphery. The study therefore concludes that the mass polarization of industry from the smaller countries in SADC towards South Africa is unlikely to occur with the further reduction in trade costs. Although certain industries may be attracted towards the core, the high degree of wage disparity in the region and present trade concessions from developed markets overseas towards the peripheral countries, will make these countries an attractive location, particularly for export orientated firms. Two main policy recommendations result from the study. Firstly, individual countries in SADC need to promote those industries that show concentration tendencies in their country. Secondly, in order for the periphery to maximize their gain from the free trade area, transport costs within the region need to be reduced rapidly and effectively.
- Full Text:
- Authors: Hess, Simon Peter
- Date: 2004
- Subjects: Southern African Development Community Free trade -- Africa, Southern Economic geography Industries -- Africa, Southern
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MEcon
- Identifier: vital:932 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1001648
- Description: The current implementation of a free trade area in SADC has given rise to concerns that the present location of industry in the region will be adversely affected. Specifically, many of the smaller and less-developed countries fear that this change will result in a loss of their industry towards the more developed members, and particularly towards South Africa. This study uses the framework of the new economic geography to address these concerns. The new economic geography is a body of theory that has arisen in the last decade and allows for a dynamic analysis of the process of regional integration. Studies of such dynamic effects in the developing country context are exceedingly scarce, and particularly so in southern Africa. Another area of little research is in the comparison of the evolving industrial structure of different regional blocs. Thus, in response to this gap in the literature and in order to address the concerns of polarisation of industry within the SADC region, a two-pronged empirical approach is taken. The study first conducts a review of the spatial distribution of industry within SADC from 1970 to 1999. This is achieved through the calculation and examination of industrial locational Gini coefficients, measuring the relative degree of concentration of 28 ISIC (rev 2) industries for the years 1970, 1980, 1985, 1990, 1995 and 1999. Secondly, an empirical comparison is conducted with other blocs that are in the process of deepening regional integration, namely the European Union and Mercosur. Again, this is done through the calculation of locational Gini coefficients for individual industries for all three blocs at five year intervals from 1980 to 1995, and then for 1999. The average level of concentration within SADC is found to increase steadily from 1970 to 1990. Between 1990 and 1995, the level of concentration increases further, but at a lower rate, and, by 1999 industry begins to disperse. The Gini coefficient is a relative measure, and thus does not measure the absolute level of concentration. Thus, much of the increase in concentration seen is towards peripheral countries. To further interpret the Gini, the changes in concentration are compared to the absolute changes in manufacturing employment in South Africa. From this analysis, eight of the 28 industries analysed show particular tendencies to concentrate in the periphery. These are beverages, textiles, wearing apparel, paper and products, rubber products, other non-metallic mineral products, transport equipment, and professional and scientific equipment. Likewise, another six industries become more concentrated in South Africa over this time, namely food products, printing and publishing, industrial chemicals, petroleum refineries, miscellaneous petroleum and coal products, and electrical machinery. According to the Gini coefficient, the tobacco industry is by far the most concentrated, while the wood products industry is the most dispersed. It is also found that scale-intensive industries tend to be among the most concentrated. In the cross-bloc comparison, Mercosur has the lowest level of aggregate concentration with an average Gini of 0.08 in 1999. This compares with Ginis of 0.28 for the EU, and 0.22 for SADC. The EU has the largest increase in concentration over the period, while the concentration in Mercosur falls during the 1980s, increases in the mid 1990s and then falls again by 1999. A common theme, however, between all three blocs is a trend towards dispersion in the late 1990s. This is particularly apparent in SADC and Mercosur where the Gini decreases in value, while in the EU, the Gini only increases marginally in this period. Other studies of the EU have indicated that industry was starting to disperse at this time. This finding would be more apparent at a greater level of industrial disaggregation. The following industries are found to be agglomerated above the average level in all three blocs: tobacco, miscellaneous petroleum and coal products, and pottery china and earthenware. Conversely, transport equipment, paper and products, machinery except electrical, plastic products, rubber products, and fabricated metal products tend to be more dispersed across all three. Perhaps more interesting is that there appears to be some commonality between industries that become more agglomerated across all three blocs, while industries that dispersed tend to be region specific. The industries that show universal agglomeration tendencies are the highly sensitive wearing apparel and textiles industries, in addition to industrial chemicals, printing and publishing, iron and steel, and plastic products. In relation to SADC, the first two of these industries show an increased concentration in the periphery, as in the EU, while the remaining industries show tendencies to concentrate in the core. The new economic geography predicts that, as the presently high levels of transport costs begin to fall in SADC, industry will tend to concentrate in the core. However, the results of this study indicate that the effect on manufacturing is, to a large extent, sector specific, with some manufacturing industries concentrating in the core and others in the periphery. The study therefore concludes that the mass polarization of industry from the smaller countries in SADC towards South Africa is unlikely to occur with the further reduction in trade costs. Although certain industries may be attracted towards the core, the high degree of wage disparity in the region and present trade concessions from developed markets overseas towards the peripheral countries, will make these countries an attractive location, particularly for export orientated firms. Two main policy recommendations result from the study. Firstly, individual countries in SADC need to promote those industries that show concentration tendencies in their country. Secondly, in order for the periphery to maximize their gain from the free trade area, transport costs within the region need to be reduced rapidly and effectively.
- Full Text:
Economic impact of international labour migration on Lesotho's development, 1986-1998: towards an international labour migration policy for the Southern African region
- Authors: Maro, Mkasafari Grace
- Date: 2002
- Subjects: Migrant labor -- South Africa , Migrant labor -- Lesotho , Foreign workers -- South Africa , Miners -- South Africa , Miners -- Labor unions -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MA
- Identifier: vital:1058 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1007496 , Migrant labor -- South Africa , Migrant labor -- Lesotho , Foreign workers -- South Africa , Miners -- South Africa , Miners -- Labor unions -- South Africa
- Description: The aim of the thesis is to identify the pressures that contributed to the rise in international labour migration in Lesotho, and to investigate how these pressures are impacting upon the modernization process in the country, particularly at a time when employment opportunities are scarce in the southern African region. International labour migration has been used as a development tool throughout history, but especially in the 20th century by developing countries with dual labour markets. Newly independent developing countries with dual labour markets adapted the strategy of import substitution industrialization (lSI), with an emphasis on protecting infant industries and promoting pro-labour policies. In the post-colonial period the international demand for lowskilled workers rose, particularly in the North (developed countries), and in mineral rich countries including the oil exporters and South Africa, and the newly industrialising countries in East Asia. International labour migration to these countries was adapted as an integral development tool by the governments of the lSI countries. Most migrants were low-skilled and temporary workers in the destination countries. Although no multilateral institutional framework existed, usually both the sending and receiving countries adapted unilateral and bilateral migration policies to guarantee the gains from migration. Workers were thus "protected" to varying degrees under such agreements. From the 1970s, the North experienced a slowdown in the growth in demand for unskilled workers. In the 1980s, many lSI countries experienced devastating economic crises that forced them to abandon the lSI policy and adapt the export-led industrialisation (EOI) policy with an emphasis on trade liberalization. The switch from lSI to EOI in developing countries with dual labour markets led to the downsizing of public sector employment, the removal of marketing boards formally used by small-scale agricultural farmers, and the expansion of export processing zones (EPZs). These outcomes resulted in a rise in push internal migration, and international migration from these countries especially to other developing countries. At the same time, since the late 1980s, capital has acquired greatly enhanced mobility at the global level. The adaptation of EOI and the full mobility of capital at the global level altered the institutional structure within which labour migration was governed both nationally, and internationally. At the national level stricter unilateral policies were reinforced by receiving countries for low-skilled labour, while less strict policies applied for skilled labour. These remain in operation in conjunction with the earlier bilateral agreements. At the international level, there remains a lack of policy to regulate international labour migration. Under the current enhanced mobility of capital, international migrants are thus left vulnerable. Lesotho fits this pattern. Faced with a dual economy and an abundance of semi-skilled labour, Lesotho has been a principal supplier of labour to the South Africa's mining industry since its independence. Lesotho's industrial diversification thus mirrors South Africa's industrial diversification. In the lSI phase (1968 - 1987), international labour migration became the most important tool of economic welfare generation in Lesotho. Bilateral agreements were signed in the early 1970s between Lesotho and South Africa to guarantee the gains from migration. Since the late I980s, the mining industry in South Africa began to downsize production and employment. Fewer novice miners from Lesotho were recruited to work in South Africa. The adaptation of the EOI policy in Lesotho in 1987 introduced EPZ industrialization and trade liberalization. Nevertheless, the retrenchment of mine workers from South Africa is occurring at a time when Lesotho is experiencing an employment crisis. The political independence of South Africa in 1994 was accompanied by stricter international migration policies by the new democratic government of South Africa. Most migrant workers in South Africa are thus now faced with a two-door policy (of the earlier bilateral agreements and the amendments to the Aliens Control Act). This system has left migrant workers vulnerable to exploitation by both employers and the law (police) in South Africa. Nevertheless, international migration from Lesotho to South Africa continues to expand, particularly of the new type of migration - semiskilled female workers in the services sector. At the same time, South Africa is also experiencing an employment crisis. The most important policy implications are, firstly, that migration is subject to the same "casualisation" as other work, with the effects made worse by the "statelessness" of migrants, who are most vulnerable to exploitation. Secondly, multilateralism is needed (e.g., SADC) and holistic, multilateral policies are required. It is clear that under the new global division of labour ad hoc policy towards international labour migration is ineffective.
- Full Text:
- Authors: Maro, Mkasafari Grace
- Date: 2002
- Subjects: Migrant labor -- South Africa , Migrant labor -- Lesotho , Foreign workers -- South Africa , Miners -- South Africa , Miners -- Labor unions -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MA
- Identifier: vital:1058 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1007496 , Migrant labor -- South Africa , Migrant labor -- Lesotho , Foreign workers -- South Africa , Miners -- South Africa , Miners -- Labor unions -- South Africa
- Description: The aim of the thesis is to identify the pressures that contributed to the rise in international labour migration in Lesotho, and to investigate how these pressures are impacting upon the modernization process in the country, particularly at a time when employment opportunities are scarce in the southern African region. International labour migration has been used as a development tool throughout history, but especially in the 20th century by developing countries with dual labour markets. Newly independent developing countries with dual labour markets adapted the strategy of import substitution industrialization (lSI), with an emphasis on protecting infant industries and promoting pro-labour policies. In the post-colonial period the international demand for lowskilled workers rose, particularly in the North (developed countries), and in mineral rich countries including the oil exporters and South Africa, and the newly industrialising countries in East Asia. International labour migration to these countries was adapted as an integral development tool by the governments of the lSI countries. Most migrants were low-skilled and temporary workers in the destination countries. Although no multilateral institutional framework existed, usually both the sending and receiving countries adapted unilateral and bilateral migration policies to guarantee the gains from migration. Workers were thus "protected" to varying degrees under such agreements. From the 1970s, the North experienced a slowdown in the growth in demand for unskilled workers. In the 1980s, many lSI countries experienced devastating economic crises that forced them to abandon the lSI policy and adapt the export-led industrialisation (EOI) policy with an emphasis on trade liberalization. The switch from lSI to EOI in developing countries with dual labour markets led to the downsizing of public sector employment, the removal of marketing boards formally used by small-scale agricultural farmers, and the expansion of export processing zones (EPZs). These outcomes resulted in a rise in push internal migration, and international migration from these countries especially to other developing countries. At the same time, since the late 1980s, capital has acquired greatly enhanced mobility at the global level. The adaptation of EOI and the full mobility of capital at the global level altered the institutional structure within which labour migration was governed both nationally, and internationally. At the national level stricter unilateral policies were reinforced by receiving countries for low-skilled labour, while less strict policies applied for skilled labour. These remain in operation in conjunction with the earlier bilateral agreements. At the international level, there remains a lack of policy to regulate international labour migration. Under the current enhanced mobility of capital, international migrants are thus left vulnerable. Lesotho fits this pattern. Faced with a dual economy and an abundance of semi-skilled labour, Lesotho has been a principal supplier of labour to the South Africa's mining industry since its independence. Lesotho's industrial diversification thus mirrors South Africa's industrial diversification. In the lSI phase (1968 - 1987), international labour migration became the most important tool of economic welfare generation in Lesotho. Bilateral agreements were signed in the early 1970s between Lesotho and South Africa to guarantee the gains from migration. Since the late I980s, the mining industry in South Africa began to downsize production and employment. Fewer novice miners from Lesotho were recruited to work in South Africa. The adaptation of the EOI policy in Lesotho in 1987 introduced EPZ industrialization and trade liberalization. Nevertheless, the retrenchment of mine workers from South Africa is occurring at a time when Lesotho is experiencing an employment crisis. The political independence of South Africa in 1994 was accompanied by stricter international migration policies by the new democratic government of South Africa. Most migrant workers in South Africa are thus now faced with a two-door policy (of the earlier bilateral agreements and the amendments to the Aliens Control Act). This system has left migrant workers vulnerable to exploitation by both employers and the law (police) in South Africa. Nevertheless, international migration from Lesotho to South Africa continues to expand, particularly of the new type of migration - semiskilled female workers in the services sector. At the same time, South Africa is also experiencing an employment crisis. The most important policy implications are, firstly, that migration is subject to the same "casualisation" as other work, with the effects made worse by the "statelessness" of migrants, who are most vulnerable to exploitation. Secondly, multilateralism is needed (e.g., SADC) and holistic, multilateral policies are required. It is clear that under the new global division of labour ad hoc policy towards international labour migration is ineffective.
- Full Text:
Aspects of the new repurchase system of monetary control in South Africa
- Springfield, Samantha Claire
- Authors: Springfield, Samantha Claire
- Date: 2001
- Subjects: Monetary policy -- South Africa Credit control -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MEcon
- Identifier: vital:940 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002673
- Description: The main objective of monetary policy is to protect the value of the currency, and in so doing, achieve the objectives of maximum economic growth, development, and the creation of employment opportunities. As from 1985, under the advice of the De Kock Commission, the South African Reserve Bank (SARB), implemented the classical cash reserve system of monetary control. Under this system, the SARB was willing to refinance the money market shortage fully, automatically, and on certain predetermined terms, conditions and costs. However, since the new political dispensation in 1994, South Africa’s financial markets have become more globalized, liberalised, and integrated. Thus, the classical cash reserve system had lost its usefulness, and was no longer effective. As from March 1998, the SARB implemented the new repurchase system of monetary control. In implementing the repurchase system of monetary control, South Africa was adopting a more eclectic approach. This system is aimed at making monetary policy more effective and more flexible in a financial environment filled with complexities. This study finds that the repurchase system has thus far been successful in meeting its objectives. Interest rates are more flexible and sensitive to developments in the domestic and external environment, the signalling mechanism of the SARB has proved to be successful, accommodation and interest rates are closely related and the interbank market has become more developed. Therefore, the repurchase system appears to be more efficient than the previous system of monetary control in South Africa.
- Full Text:
- Authors: Springfield, Samantha Claire
- Date: 2001
- Subjects: Monetary policy -- South Africa Credit control -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MEcon
- Identifier: vital:940 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002673
- Description: The main objective of monetary policy is to protect the value of the currency, and in so doing, achieve the objectives of maximum economic growth, development, and the creation of employment opportunities. As from 1985, under the advice of the De Kock Commission, the South African Reserve Bank (SARB), implemented the classical cash reserve system of monetary control. Under this system, the SARB was willing to refinance the money market shortage fully, automatically, and on certain predetermined terms, conditions and costs. However, since the new political dispensation in 1994, South Africa’s financial markets have become more globalized, liberalised, and integrated. Thus, the classical cash reserve system had lost its usefulness, and was no longer effective. As from March 1998, the SARB implemented the new repurchase system of monetary control. In implementing the repurchase system of monetary control, South Africa was adopting a more eclectic approach. This system is aimed at making monetary policy more effective and more flexible in a financial environment filled with complexities. This study finds that the repurchase system has thus far been successful in meeting its objectives. Interest rates are more flexible and sensitive to developments in the domestic and external environment, the signalling mechanism of the SARB has proved to be successful, accommodation and interest rates are closely related and the interbank market has become more developed. Therefore, the repurchase system appears to be more efficient than the previous system of monetary control in South Africa.
- Full Text:
Clustering as a strategy for manufacturing performance in the Eastern Cape Automotive industry
- Makuwaza, Gwynneth Chandakaita
- Authors: Makuwaza, Gwynneth Chandakaita
- Date: 2001
- Subjects: Automobile industry and trade , Automobile industry and trade -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape , Automobile industry and trade -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape -- Performance
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:937 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002670 , Automobile industry and trade , Automobile industry and trade -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape , Automobile industry and trade -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape -- Performance
- Description: South Africa's current industrial policy focuses on the economy at two levels: a sectoral and spatial level. The former relates to the manner in which industrial policy is concentrating on particular sectors i.e. industrial clusters. This shift in industrial policy from targeting individual industries to an emphasis on industrial clusters, has complemented the change in focus to export promotion under trade policy. Furthermore, there has been increasing recognition of the need to improve industry performance and competitiveness in order to successfully implement export growth. Industry clusters are considered as having the potential to increase manufacturing performance and can provide the basis for sustainable competitive advantage for nations. Consequently the concept of industry clusters was introduced in South Africa in 1997. Because industry clusters are relatively new in South Africa, most of the cluster initiatives in various sectors of the economy are in their early stages of development. Nevertheless, some are already showing signs of potential success in increasing competitiveness in particular sectors. This thesis uses Porter's "diamond" framework apprdach to investigate whether clustering has improved the manufacturing performance of the motor industry in the Eastern Cape. International experience from both developed and developing countries will illustrate the potential of clustering as a powerful strategy in increasing manufacturing performance and consequently competitiveness. Ultimately this should lead to long-term economic development, especially if government adopts clusterbased economic development policies. Information from a survey conducted on both the motor vehicle assemblers and component suppliers is used in this study. The findings reveal that it is mainly the motor vehicle assemblers who have experienced some improvements in manufacturing performance. The components sector on the other hand has not experienced any such improvements. This thesis concludes with the recommendation that it is important to develop cluster policy as a broader and dynamic view of competition. The main emphasis under such policy would be a move from targeting particular industries and providing subsidies towards focusing attention to all clusters in the economy. To effectively apply such a policy requires the repositioning of national, local and provincial government in order to become more involved in regional development issues. Moreover, the various levels of government need to incorporate cluster policy into their competitive strategies.
- Full Text:
- Authors: Makuwaza, Gwynneth Chandakaita
- Date: 2001
- Subjects: Automobile industry and trade , Automobile industry and trade -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape , Automobile industry and trade -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape -- Performance
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:937 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002670 , Automobile industry and trade , Automobile industry and trade -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape , Automobile industry and trade -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape -- Performance
- Description: South Africa's current industrial policy focuses on the economy at two levels: a sectoral and spatial level. The former relates to the manner in which industrial policy is concentrating on particular sectors i.e. industrial clusters. This shift in industrial policy from targeting individual industries to an emphasis on industrial clusters, has complemented the change in focus to export promotion under trade policy. Furthermore, there has been increasing recognition of the need to improve industry performance and competitiveness in order to successfully implement export growth. Industry clusters are considered as having the potential to increase manufacturing performance and can provide the basis for sustainable competitive advantage for nations. Consequently the concept of industry clusters was introduced in South Africa in 1997. Because industry clusters are relatively new in South Africa, most of the cluster initiatives in various sectors of the economy are in their early stages of development. Nevertheless, some are already showing signs of potential success in increasing competitiveness in particular sectors. This thesis uses Porter's "diamond" framework apprdach to investigate whether clustering has improved the manufacturing performance of the motor industry in the Eastern Cape. International experience from both developed and developing countries will illustrate the potential of clustering as a powerful strategy in increasing manufacturing performance and consequently competitiveness. Ultimately this should lead to long-term economic development, especially if government adopts clusterbased economic development policies. Information from a survey conducted on both the motor vehicle assemblers and component suppliers is used in this study. The findings reveal that it is mainly the motor vehicle assemblers who have experienced some improvements in manufacturing performance. The components sector on the other hand has not experienced any such improvements. This thesis concludes with the recommendation that it is important to develop cluster policy as a broader and dynamic view of competition. The main emphasis under such policy would be a move from targeting particular industries and providing subsidies towards focusing attention to all clusters in the economy. To effectively apply such a policy requires the repositioning of national, local and provincial government in order to become more involved in regional development issues. Moreover, the various levels of government need to incorporate cluster policy into their competitive strategies.
- Full Text:
The nature of economic integration and co-operation within the South African region and a survey of economic benefits to member states
- Authors: Mutambara, Tsitsi Effie
- Date: 2001
- Subjects: Africa, Southern -- Economic integration , Southern African Development Community
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MA
- Identifier: vital:938 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002671 , Africa, Southern -- Economic integration , Southern African Development Community
- Description: The transformation of SADCC into the Southern African Development Community (SADC) has paved the way towards closer regional economic integration in southern Africa. The regional grouping no longer only focuses on sectoral cooperation, but is steadily moving towards increased cooperation in trade development and promotion, industrial development and the diversification of national economies, with the aim of increasing regional economic integration. A free trade area ranks second lowest in the steps towards the highest levels of economic integration. Thus, the signing of the SADC Trade Protocol, which serves to pave way for a SADC Free Trade Area, has initiated steps to facilitate and promote the formal economic integration of all countries in the southern African region. It has been noted that at various periods, the region has adopted a variety of approaches to integration. As such, the present study reviews the different approaches to integration, namely the market integration model, the neo-functional integration model, the development integration model and the theory of common markets. Since the essential question with which this thesis is concerned is whether, and to what extent, the benefits expected from SADC and SACU in terms of their aims and objectives have accrued to member states, an insight into the expected benefits arising from the application of each theoretical framework can help to facilitate an evaluation of the benefits which the countries have enjoyed from these two regional groupings. The thesis highlights that throughout the ten years during which the original SADCC was in place, it based its approach to regional integration on the neo-functional and development integration models, although the former tended to be more dominant. With the regional grouping transforming into SADC, the market integration model was adopted, even though the grouping still had features of the aforementioned approaches. The relevance of the three approaches can be seen in: (i) the continued importance of SADC's sectoral projects, particularly in the field of transport and communication: (ii) continued attempts to put in place a suitable regional) industrial development strategy and implement policies to attract foreign investment; and (iii) the signing of the SADCC Trade Protocol to facilitate the implementation of a free trade area. The thesis argues that member states have enjoyed considerable economic benefits from the SADC sectoral projects. However, in some cases, members have lost out on potential benefits as a result of projects failing to be implemented or completed, mainly due to inadequate funding. Further, delays and inefficiencies at some border posts constitute significant non-tariff barriers which could be a hindrance to intra-regional trade. Progress towards diversification of exports has been limited as the region still relies mostly on the export of the traditional agricultural and mineral raw materials. While all countries have made efforts to diversify their industrial bases, attempts at implementing a meaningful regional industrial development strategy have met with limited success. Intra-regional trade has been increasing over the years. Since the SADC Trade Protocol only came into effect in September 2000, the increased levels of trade integration in the region appear to have been a result of the bilateral trade agreements between countries, and the customs union between South Africa and Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia and Swaziland (BLNS), as well as the structural adjustment programmes and the significant growth experienced in some countries. Outstanding intra-regional trade volumes have been experienced within SACU. In trade terms, benefits have varied between member states, with the more powerful countries like South Africa, Zimbabwe and Mauritius experiencing substantial trade surpluses vis-a.-vis their trade, partners. Countries with bilateral preferential trade agreements have also benefited more due to increased access into each other's markets compared to those without or with bilateral trade agreements of an MFN nature. However, it is important to note that, despite the increase in trade integration in the region, southern Africa is still heavily dependent on the rest of the world for its export markets and as its source of imports. The study finds that intra-industry trade (IIT) exists within the region and, in a number of sectors, high IIT indices are recorded;--although some such sectors do not display significant trade - voIumes. The opening of the region through the implementation of the SADC FTA could promote the expansion of IIT .as-the free trade area )'Till create an enlarged regional market. As such, SADC could benefit from dynamic effects such as scale economies in production and marketing, with member states working on having complementary production structures so as to facilitate specialisation. The thesis argues that the potential for intra-regional trade expansion in the SADC FT A also exists bearing in mind trade complementarity between countries as well as revealed comparative advantages in different sectors. One of the benefits which have accrued to the region as a result of facilitating and promoting greater cooperation and deepening the integration process has been an expansion in cross border investment. The study finds that the 1990s witnessed a gradual increase in cross border investment to take advantage of investment opportunities in member states. South Africa has become the primary source of foreign direct investment flows to a number of SADC countries, with mergers and acquisitions being the dominant mode of its foreign direct investment. Cross border investment helps in supplementing low domestic savings, thus providing substantial parts of the shortfall in capital needed to finance economic growth and development. It can thus promote development in the industrial sector, transfer of capital, skills and technology, and development of infrastructure. Many SADC countries are unable to compete effectively due to lack of export supply capacity. The thesis suggests that capitalising on investment by South African firms could enhance local supply capabilities and raise export competitiveness. The study concludes that for market integration to succeed in the SADC region, the neofunctional and development integration approaches need to be actively pursued simultaneously, particularly with respect to infrastructural and industrial development.
- Full Text:
- Authors: Mutambara, Tsitsi Effie
- Date: 2001
- Subjects: Africa, Southern -- Economic integration , Southern African Development Community
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MA
- Identifier: vital:938 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002671 , Africa, Southern -- Economic integration , Southern African Development Community
- Description: The transformation of SADCC into the Southern African Development Community (SADC) has paved the way towards closer regional economic integration in southern Africa. The regional grouping no longer only focuses on sectoral cooperation, but is steadily moving towards increased cooperation in trade development and promotion, industrial development and the diversification of national economies, with the aim of increasing regional economic integration. A free trade area ranks second lowest in the steps towards the highest levels of economic integration. Thus, the signing of the SADC Trade Protocol, which serves to pave way for a SADC Free Trade Area, has initiated steps to facilitate and promote the formal economic integration of all countries in the southern African region. It has been noted that at various periods, the region has adopted a variety of approaches to integration. As such, the present study reviews the different approaches to integration, namely the market integration model, the neo-functional integration model, the development integration model and the theory of common markets. Since the essential question with which this thesis is concerned is whether, and to what extent, the benefits expected from SADC and SACU in terms of their aims and objectives have accrued to member states, an insight into the expected benefits arising from the application of each theoretical framework can help to facilitate an evaluation of the benefits which the countries have enjoyed from these two regional groupings. The thesis highlights that throughout the ten years during which the original SADCC was in place, it based its approach to regional integration on the neo-functional and development integration models, although the former tended to be more dominant. With the regional grouping transforming into SADC, the market integration model was adopted, even though the grouping still had features of the aforementioned approaches. The relevance of the three approaches can be seen in: (i) the continued importance of SADC's sectoral projects, particularly in the field of transport and communication: (ii) continued attempts to put in place a suitable regional) industrial development strategy and implement policies to attract foreign investment; and (iii) the signing of the SADCC Trade Protocol to facilitate the implementation of a free trade area. The thesis argues that member states have enjoyed considerable economic benefits from the SADC sectoral projects. However, in some cases, members have lost out on potential benefits as a result of projects failing to be implemented or completed, mainly due to inadequate funding. Further, delays and inefficiencies at some border posts constitute significant non-tariff barriers which could be a hindrance to intra-regional trade. Progress towards diversification of exports has been limited as the region still relies mostly on the export of the traditional agricultural and mineral raw materials. While all countries have made efforts to diversify their industrial bases, attempts at implementing a meaningful regional industrial development strategy have met with limited success. Intra-regional trade has been increasing over the years. Since the SADC Trade Protocol only came into effect in September 2000, the increased levels of trade integration in the region appear to have been a result of the bilateral trade agreements between countries, and the customs union between South Africa and Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia and Swaziland (BLNS), as well as the structural adjustment programmes and the significant growth experienced in some countries. Outstanding intra-regional trade volumes have been experienced within SACU. In trade terms, benefits have varied between member states, with the more powerful countries like South Africa, Zimbabwe and Mauritius experiencing substantial trade surpluses vis-a.-vis their trade, partners. Countries with bilateral preferential trade agreements have also benefited more due to increased access into each other's markets compared to those without or with bilateral trade agreements of an MFN nature. However, it is important to note that, despite the increase in trade integration in the region, southern Africa is still heavily dependent on the rest of the world for its export markets and as its source of imports. The study finds that intra-industry trade (IIT) exists within the region and, in a number of sectors, high IIT indices are recorded;--although some such sectors do not display significant trade - voIumes. The opening of the region through the implementation of the SADC FTA could promote the expansion of IIT .as-the free trade area )'Till create an enlarged regional market. As such, SADC could benefit from dynamic effects such as scale economies in production and marketing, with member states working on having complementary production structures so as to facilitate specialisation. The thesis argues that the potential for intra-regional trade expansion in the SADC FT A also exists bearing in mind trade complementarity between countries as well as revealed comparative advantages in different sectors. One of the benefits which have accrued to the region as a result of facilitating and promoting greater cooperation and deepening the integration process has been an expansion in cross border investment. The study finds that the 1990s witnessed a gradual increase in cross border investment to take advantage of investment opportunities in member states. South Africa has become the primary source of foreign direct investment flows to a number of SADC countries, with mergers and acquisitions being the dominant mode of its foreign direct investment. Cross border investment helps in supplementing low domestic savings, thus providing substantial parts of the shortfall in capital needed to finance economic growth and development. It can thus promote development in the industrial sector, transfer of capital, skills and technology, and development of infrastructure. Many SADC countries are unable to compete effectively due to lack of export supply capacity. The thesis suggests that capitalising on investment by South African firms could enhance local supply capabilities and raise export competitiveness. The study concludes that for market integration to succeed in the SADC region, the neofunctional and development integration approaches need to be actively pursued simultaneously, particularly with respect to infrastructural and industrial development.
- Full Text:
Towards more accurate measurement of the value of the arts to society: economic impact and willingness to pay studies at the Standard Bank National Arts Festival
- Authors: Snowball, Jeanette Dalziel
- Date: 2001
- Subjects: Standard Bank National Arts Festival , Standard Bank National Arts Festival -- Economic aspects , Art -- Economic aspects , Money in art , Art -- Marketing , Performing arts festivals -- Economic aspects -- South Africa -- Grahamstown
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MA
- Identifier: vital:939 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002672
- Description: The accurate measurement of the value of the arts to society is becoming increasingly important in developing countries, like South Africa, where the arts must compete with housing, health, education and the like for public funds. Motivation for the public funding of arts events, like the Standard Bank National Arts Festival in Grahamstown, is usually based on the economic impact, that is, the financial benefits to the region, of such events. The argument is problematic, however, because the primary recipients of such economic benefits are often middle to upper income groups who also attend more arts performances. Furthermore, the studies have not taken into account the positive externalities which, it is argued, are generated by the arts and are enjoyed by attenders and non attenders alike. This thesis argues that it is the social benefits which the arts provide, those external to the market, which should be the basis of public funding. In order to quantify these positive externalities, a willingness to pay (WTP) study was conducted in the Grahamstown region. It is generally, but erroneously, believed that the Festival does not benefit the poorer, largely black, Grahamstown East residents. The study found that, in addition to the economic value (R23 - 25 million a year), the non-market benefits which the festival provides are worth between R2.3 and R3 million a year and form a very important part of its value, particularly to low income groups. The study also found that there are methodological adjustments which can be made to WTP studies to successfully control for the many forms of bias it is prone to. By using a combination of closed and open ended and liable and non-liable questions, the motivation of respondents' answers to WTP questions was determined, making it possible to adjust for bias caused by, for example, "free rider" and "warm glow" responses. It is argued that by identifying and excluding such responses from WTP surveys, it is possible to reduce bias to an acceptable level.
- Full Text:
- Authors: Snowball, Jeanette Dalziel
- Date: 2001
- Subjects: Standard Bank National Arts Festival , Standard Bank National Arts Festival -- Economic aspects , Art -- Economic aspects , Money in art , Art -- Marketing , Performing arts festivals -- Economic aspects -- South Africa -- Grahamstown
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MA
- Identifier: vital:939 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002672
- Description: The accurate measurement of the value of the arts to society is becoming increasingly important in developing countries, like South Africa, where the arts must compete with housing, health, education and the like for public funds. Motivation for the public funding of arts events, like the Standard Bank National Arts Festival in Grahamstown, is usually based on the economic impact, that is, the financial benefits to the region, of such events. The argument is problematic, however, because the primary recipients of such economic benefits are often middle to upper income groups who also attend more arts performances. Furthermore, the studies have not taken into account the positive externalities which, it is argued, are generated by the arts and are enjoyed by attenders and non attenders alike. This thesis argues that it is the social benefits which the arts provide, those external to the market, which should be the basis of public funding. In order to quantify these positive externalities, a willingness to pay (WTP) study was conducted in the Grahamstown region. It is generally, but erroneously, believed that the Festival does not benefit the poorer, largely black, Grahamstown East residents. The study found that, in addition to the economic value (R23 - 25 million a year), the non-market benefits which the festival provides are worth between R2.3 and R3 million a year and form a very important part of its value, particularly to low income groups. The study also found that there are methodological adjustments which can be made to WTP studies to successfully control for the many forms of bias it is prone to. By using a combination of closed and open ended and liable and non-liable questions, the motivation of respondents' answers to WTP questions was determined, making it possible to adjust for bias caused by, for example, "free rider" and "warm glow" responses. It is argued that by identifying and excluding such responses from WTP surveys, it is possible to reduce bias to an acceptable level.
- Full Text:
An evaluation of IMF structural adjustment programmes : lessons for South Africa
- Authors: Berolsky, Nuno Goncalo
- Date: 2000
- Subjects: International Monetary Fund , International Monetary Fund -- Developing countries , Structural adjustment (Economic policy) -- Developing countries , South Africa -- Economic policy
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MSocSc
- Identifier: vital:935 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002668 , International Monetary Fund , International Monetary Fund -- Developing countries , Structural adjustment (Economic policy) -- Developing countries , South Africa -- Economic policy
- Description: The mixed results of International Monetary Fund structural adjustment programmes in less developed countries are a major motivation for this research. Explanations must be advanced as to what may inhibit the success of such programmes. South Africa has often found itself in a precarious position- with a deteriorating balance of payments, a position similar to other countries that have accepted IMF loans. Furthermore, South Africa undertook an IMF loan in 1993. Financial support from the IMF incorporates structural adjustment programmes. These may include measures such as tighter monetary policy, reduction in the budget deficit, exchange rate devaluation and ceilings on domestic credit with increased interest rates (Ferguson, 1988). These policies illustrate the principle of ‘conditionality,’ whereby access to further loans is conditional on certain criteria being met, such as reduced budget deficits and inflation rates. The principle of conditionality has met with a great deal of criticism. Bacha (1987) and Dell (1982) argue that these aggregate demand-reducing conditions more often than not stagnate domestic economies, worsening the balance of payment and result in programme breakdowns. Essentially, they refer to the IMF conditions as ‘unrealistic.’ The IMF denies this, arguing that shortfalls are mainly due to a lack of political commitment to carry out its conditions (Winters, 1994). This issue of conditionality will be examined in detail, using three specific case studies. The aim of this study is to examine the characteristics of Brazil, Mexico and Zambia to see whether or not the IMF programmes were successful. Guidelines will be established for South African policy from these case studies. South Africa is trying to adjust to the competitiveness of the international economy. At the same time, the need for reconstruction and development exerts increasing pressures on the balance of payments. Guidelines are established for a successful economic adjustment for South Africa. The research concludes that South Africa is certainly in line for a successful transformation. The rigidities are not as extensive as has been the case in Brazil and Zambia. Institutionally, South Africa is sound. However there are still challenges in this area, such as export diversification and economic stability to attract foreign investment.
- Full Text:
- Authors: Berolsky, Nuno Goncalo
- Date: 2000
- Subjects: International Monetary Fund , International Monetary Fund -- Developing countries , Structural adjustment (Economic policy) -- Developing countries , South Africa -- Economic policy
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MSocSc
- Identifier: vital:935 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002668 , International Monetary Fund , International Monetary Fund -- Developing countries , Structural adjustment (Economic policy) -- Developing countries , South Africa -- Economic policy
- Description: The mixed results of International Monetary Fund structural adjustment programmes in less developed countries are a major motivation for this research. Explanations must be advanced as to what may inhibit the success of such programmes. South Africa has often found itself in a precarious position- with a deteriorating balance of payments, a position similar to other countries that have accepted IMF loans. Furthermore, South Africa undertook an IMF loan in 1993. Financial support from the IMF incorporates structural adjustment programmes. These may include measures such as tighter monetary policy, reduction in the budget deficit, exchange rate devaluation and ceilings on domestic credit with increased interest rates (Ferguson, 1988). These policies illustrate the principle of ‘conditionality,’ whereby access to further loans is conditional on certain criteria being met, such as reduced budget deficits and inflation rates. The principle of conditionality has met with a great deal of criticism. Bacha (1987) and Dell (1982) argue that these aggregate demand-reducing conditions more often than not stagnate domestic economies, worsening the balance of payment and result in programme breakdowns. Essentially, they refer to the IMF conditions as ‘unrealistic.’ The IMF denies this, arguing that shortfalls are mainly due to a lack of political commitment to carry out its conditions (Winters, 1994). This issue of conditionality will be examined in detail, using three specific case studies. The aim of this study is to examine the characteristics of Brazil, Mexico and Zambia to see whether or not the IMF programmes were successful. Guidelines will be established for South African policy from these case studies. South Africa is trying to adjust to the competitiveness of the international economy. At the same time, the need for reconstruction and development exerts increasing pressures on the balance of payments. Guidelines are established for a successful economic adjustment for South Africa. The research concludes that South Africa is certainly in line for a successful transformation. The rigidities are not as extensive as has been the case in Brazil and Zambia. Institutionally, South Africa is sound. However there are still challenges in this area, such as export diversification and economic stability to attract foreign investment.
- Full Text:
The economic implications of trade policy reform in South Africa for the automotive industry in the Eastern Cape Province
- Authors: Onyango, Donald Otieno
- Date: 2000
- Subjects: Automobile industry and trade -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape , South Africa -- Commercial policy
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MA
- Identifier: vital:936 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002669 , Automobile industry and trade -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape , South Africa -- Commercial policy
- Description: South Africa is no longer a pariah state and has been fully integrated into the global family of nations. With the country’s accession to multilateral agreements like the World Trade Organization (WTO), there has been pressure on the government to abandon its hitherto protectionist trade regime in favour of free and fair trade. Trade liberalisation has had profound implications for the country’s manufacturing sector in general, and the automotive industry in particular, which has seen tariff protection radically slashed and import restrictions greatly eased. Not only has the market share of domestic producers fallen, but increases in exports have to date not matched those of imports. As a result there has been a deterioration in the sector’s balance of trade and a reduction in employment levels, at a time when the country desperately needs to create new jobs. Recent developments, however, suggest that this scenario may be set to change. The thesis applies orthodox neoclassical and heterodox approaches to trade policy to an assessment of the likely economic impact of trade liberalisation on the automotive industry in the Eastern Cape, and by extension nationally. The thesis argues that reliance on orthodox trade theory to inform the direction of trade policy, especially in a developing country context, is unlikely to bring about an adequate increase in the level of exports and employment. This is because liberalisation of the import regime is likely to increase import levels without necessarily stimulating export levels, a scenario which serves to negate the presupposed benefits of liberalisation. The study uses information from surveys conducted on both motor vehicle assemblers and component manufacturing firms to investigate the effect of trade liberalisation on the sector in the Province and finds that, by and large, the motor assemblers have not fared as badly as expected and have in fact positioned themselves to export more vehicles and components. The components sector has had to contend with increased competition from cheaper imports. The thesis, while acknowledging that, as far as possible, free trade is an optimal position, nonetheless argues that governments still have an important role to play in the promotion of industrialisation. The scope of government intervention should, however, be limited to selective interventions which are aimed at counteracting market failure and facilitating innovation and the diffusion of technological know-how. The thesis argues that institution of supply side measures, such as the encouragement of research and development (R&D), skills development and industrial training, is necessary for sustained growth in the manufacturing sector to be realised. The thesis also finds that, contrary to expectations, the liberalisation of the automotive sector has not had the desired effects. Despite an increase in the value of automotive exports and an overall trend towards reduced net foreign exchange usage, employment levels are on the decline. The thesis also finds that without major export initiatives by both motor vehicle assemblers and component manufacturers, the future of the industry will be placed in jeopardy, especially with reduced protection and incentives.
- Full Text:
- Authors: Onyango, Donald Otieno
- Date: 2000
- Subjects: Automobile industry and trade -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape , South Africa -- Commercial policy
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MA
- Identifier: vital:936 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002669 , Automobile industry and trade -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape , South Africa -- Commercial policy
- Description: South Africa is no longer a pariah state and has been fully integrated into the global family of nations. With the country’s accession to multilateral agreements like the World Trade Organization (WTO), there has been pressure on the government to abandon its hitherto protectionist trade regime in favour of free and fair trade. Trade liberalisation has had profound implications for the country’s manufacturing sector in general, and the automotive industry in particular, which has seen tariff protection radically slashed and import restrictions greatly eased. Not only has the market share of domestic producers fallen, but increases in exports have to date not matched those of imports. As a result there has been a deterioration in the sector’s balance of trade and a reduction in employment levels, at a time when the country desperately needs to create new jobs. Recent developments, however, suggest that this scenario may be set to change. The thesis applies orthodox neoclassical and heterodox approaches to trade policy to an assessment of the likely economic impact of trade liberalisation on the automotive industry in the Eastern Cape, and by extension nationally. The thesis argues that reliance on orthodox trade theory to inform the direction of trade policy, especially in a developing country context, is unlikely to bring about an adequate increase in the level of exports and employment. This is because liberalisation of the import regime is likely to increase import levels without necessarily stimulating export levels, a scenario which serves to negate the presupposed benefits of liberalisation. The study uses information from surveys conducted on both motor vehicle assemblers and component manufacturing firms to investigate the effect of trade liberalisation on the sector in the Province and finds that, by and large, the motor assemblers have not fared as badly as expected and have in fact positioned themselves to export more vehicles and components. The components sector has had to contend with increased competition from cheaper imports. The thesis, while acknowledging that, as far as possible, free trade is an optimal position, nonetheless argues that governments still have an important role to play in the promotion of industrialisation. The scope of government intervention should, however, be limited to selective interventions which are aimed at counteracting market failure and facilitating innovation and the diffusion of technological know-how. The thesis argues that institution of supply side measures, such as the encouragement of research and development (R&D), skills development and industrial training, is necessary for sustained growth in the manufacturing sector to be realised. The thesis also finds that, contrary to expectations, the liberalisation of the automotive sector has not had the desired effects. Despite an increase in the value of automotive exports and an overall trend towards reduced net foreign exchange usage, employment levels are on the decline. The thesis also finds that without major export initiatives by both motor vehicle assemblers and component manufacturers, the future of the industry will be placed in jeopardy, especially with reduced protection and incentives.
- Full Text:
The new initiative of the East African Cooperation : opportunities, challenges and prospects
- Authors: Kimemia, Peter Njau
- Date: 2000 , 2013-04-25
- Subjects: International economic relations , Africa, East -- Foreign economic relations , East African Co-operation , Africa, East -- Economic integration
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MA
- Identifier: vital:1041 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1004743 , International economic relations , Africa, East -- Foreign economic relations , East African Co-operation , Africa, East -- Economic integration
- Description: The landmark inauguration of the East African Cooperation (EAC) on 14 March 1996 brought to the fore some key issues regarding regional economic integration in East Africa, particularly since it signalled the second attempt by Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania to form a regional economic bloc. The EAC's predecessor, the East African Community, had collapsed in 1977 in acrimonious circumstances. Prominent among the issues that led to the collapse of the East African Community was the perception of unequal gains from the integration scheme, with Uganda and Tanzania considering that disproportionate benefits were accruing to Kenya at their expense. With the new initiative, the question emerges as to whether the problems that caused the collapse of the Community will not beset the EAC and subject it to a similar fate. In an attempt to address this question, this study considers some of the theoretical issues relating to regional economic integration among countries at different levels of development, and attempts to provide an analysis of the new initiative of the EAC in the light of this theory and the history of the East African Community. The study also critically examines the objectives of the EAC and the integration strategy adopted by the three countries, and offers suggestions on the way forward. Among the arguments made in this thesis are that, contrary to the suggestions of orthodox static analysis, if the dynamic effects of integration are considered, then there may be important gains which may accrue to integrating states in the developing country context. It is also argued that different levels of development among integrating states need not necessarily be an impediment to economic integration. The study finds that, in spite of the enormous challenges facing the EAC, member states may be better off within the integration scheme than if they acted as individual units in a rapidly globalizing international system.
- Full Text:
- Authors: Kimemia, Peter Njau
- Date: 2000 , 2013-04-25
- Subjects: International economic relations , Africa, East -- Foreign economic relations , East African Co-operation , Africa, East -- Economic integration
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MA
- Identifier: vital:1041 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1004743 , International economic relations , Africa, East -- Foreign economic relations , East African Co-operation , Africa, East -- Economic integration
- Description: The landmark inauguration of the East African Cooperation (EAC) on 14 March 1996 brought to the fore some key issues regarding regional economic integration in East Africa, particularly since it signalled the second attempt by Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania to form a regional economic bloc. The EAC's predecessor, the East African Community, had collapsed in 1977 in acrimonious circumstances. Prominent among the issues that led to the collapse of the East African Community was the perception of unequal gains from the integration scheme, with Uganda and Tanzania considering that disproportionate benefits were accruing to Kenya at their expense. With the new initiative, the question emerges as to whether the problems that caused the collapse of the Community will not beset the EAC and subject it to a similar fate. In an attempt to address this question, this study considers some of the theoretical issues relating to regional economic integration among countries at different levels of development, and attempts to provide an analysis of the new initiative of the EAC in the light of this theory and the history of the East African Community. The study also critically examines the objectives of the EAC and the integration strategy adopted by the three countries, and offers suggestions on the way forward. Among the arguments made in this thesis are that, contrary to the suggestions of orthodox static analysis, if the dynamic effects of integration are considered, then there may be important gains which may accrue to integrating states in the developing country context. It is also argued that different levels of development among integrating states need not necessarily be an impediment to economic integration. The study finds that, in spite of the enormous challenges facing the EAC, member states may be better off within the integration scheme than if they acted as individual units in a rapidly globalizing international system.
- Full Text:
An economic analysis of eradicating alien vegetation as an alternative to conventional water supply schemes: a case study of the Krom and Kouga
- Authors: Carpenter, Robert Charles
- Date: 1999
- Subjects: Alien plants -- South Africa , Water-supply -- South Africa , Kouga River (South Africa)
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1000 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002735 , Alien plants -- South Africa , Water-supply -- South Africa , Kouga River (South Africa)
- Description: South Africa is classified as an arid to semi-arid region and water scarcity in South Africa has been identified as a key factor limiting socioeconomic development in the next century. In the Algoa region, the total urban plus agricultural water demand is expected to exceed the supply by the year 2005. The Kouga Working for Water Project aims to increase the base flow to the existing dams which supply the Port Elizabeth metropolitan area through the eradication of invasive alien trees in the riparian areas of the Krom and Kouga catchments. This thesis analyses the economic efficiency of optimal catchment management as a water supply scheme. A cost-benefit analysis is conducted for the Kouga eradication programme, and its desirability is evaluated in terms of the net present value (NPV) and the internal rate of return (IRR) criteria. In order to compare the cost-e~i.ciency of the eradication programme to alternative water supply augmentation schemes the Unit Reference Value (URV) is calculated for the project. The NPV for the project is calculated using a discount rate of 7% and amounts to nearly R24 million. This positive NPV indicates that the project is economically desirable in that it results in the improvement of human welfare. The IRR decision rule supports this finding. The URV of the eradication scheme is found to be competitive to that generated by more conventional schemes. Considered in the evaluation of the project are a host of environmental benefits that accompany the eradication of alien vegetation. This is in contrast to alternative schemes which result in several detrimental impacts to the environment. The economic analysis concludes that the eradication of alien vegetation is an efficient and desirable alternative water supply augmentation scheme. The conclusions drawn from the analysis of the eradication programme in this catchment area can be extended to other catchment areas, with the aim of promoting the most efficient supply of water.
- Full Text:
- Authors: Carpenter, Robert Charles
- Date: 1999
- Subjects: Alien plants -- South Africa , Water-supply -- South Africa , Kouga River (South Africa)
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1000 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002735 , Alien plants -- South Africa , Water-supply -- South Africa , Kouga River (South Africa)
- Description: South Africa is classified as an arid to semi-arid region and water scarcity in South Africa has been identified as a key factor limiting socioeconomic development in the next century. In the Algoa region, the total urban plus agricultural water demand is expected to exceed the supply by the year 2005. The Kouga Working for Water Project aims to increase the base flow to the existing dams which supply the Port Elizabeth metropolitan area through the eradication of invasive alien trees in the riparian areas of the Krom and Kouga catchments. This thesis analyses the economic efficiency of optimal catchment management as a water supply scheme. A cost-benefit analysis is conducted for the Kouga eradication programme, and its desirability is evaluated in terms of the net present value (NPV) and the internal rate of return (IRR) criteria. In order to compare the cost-e~i.ciency of the eradication programme to alternative water supply augmentation schemes the Unit Reference Value (URV) is calculated for the project. The NPV for the project is calculated using a discount rate of 7% and amounts to nearly R24 million. This positive NPV indicates that the project is economically desirable in that it results in the improvement of human welfare. The IRR decision rule supports this finding. The URV of the eradication scheme is found to be competitive to that generated by more conventional schemes. Considered in the evaluation of the project are a host of environmental benefits that accompany the eradication of alien vegetation. This is in contrast to alternative schemes which result in several detrimental impacts to the environment. The economic analysis concludes that the eradication of alien vegetation is an efficient and desirable alternative water supply augmentation scheme. The conclusions drawn from the analysis of the eradication programme in this catchment area can be extended to other catchment areas, with the aim of promoting the most efficient supply of water.
- Full Text:
The theoretical and empirical analysis of trade integration among unequal partners : implications for the Southern African Development Community
- Authors: Cattaneo, Nicolette Sylvie
- Date: 1998
- Subjects: Southern African Development Community , Customs unions , Africa, Southern -- Foreign economic relations , Africa, Southern -- Economic integration
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MSc
- Identifier: vital:1008 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002743 , Southern African Development Community , Customs unions , Africa, Southern -- Foreign economic relations , Africa, Southern -- Economic integration
- Description: The re-acceptance of South Africa into the international community has cleared the path for the closer integration of South Africa with its neighbours in a broader southern African regional union. In particular, the countries of the Southern African Development Community {SADC), which South Africa joined in August 1994, have committed themselves to the formation of a free trade area (FTA) over an eight-year period. The most likely impediment to this process is the perception of a highly unequal distribution of the economic gains and losses of such an arrangement. This reflects the particular context of SADC: one of a comparatively undeveloped region, dominated by a relatively large, more industrially advanced country, which is itself small by international standards. The essential question with which this study is concerned, therefore, is whether, despite the existing inequalities in the region, a FTA among SADC members could be mutually beneficial to South Africa and its partners. The thesis applies orthodox and new trade theory to the analysis of economic integration among unequal partners. Using the theoretical analysis, and with reference to empirical studies of such experience elsewhere in the world, it attempts to provide an assessment of the existing body of literature on the possible effects of a SADC FTA. In the light of this discussion, and from its own preliminary empirical analysis of the possible pattern of inter-sectoral versus intra-sectoral specialisation which may result on union, the study suggests ways in which a fuller evaluation of the welfare implications of a southern African FTA may be achieved. The thesis argues that the orthodox theory based on perfect competition provides an insufficient framework for the analysis of the likely effects of a SADC FT A. It finds that, firstly, in an alternative analytical framework which retains the assumption of perfect competition, there may be other criteria for judging the success of a regional union that are neglected by orthodoxy, particularly in the case of developing countries. Secondly, the new trade theory based on imperfect competition and product differentiation provides useful insights into the possible effects of a regional union among countries at unequal levels of development. The formal extension of this body of literature to the theory of economic integration is clearly called for. It is found, however, that neither orthodox customs union theory, nor its suggested alternatives and extensions, enable one to conclude, a priori, that the formation of a FTA in the southern African region could not be beneficial to both South Africa and its smaller partners. Further, the present empirical studies on SADC do not take account of the full range of factors necessary for a complete welfare assessment of the possible effects. Since the outcome of integration depends on the empirical circumstances of the particular case, and since the information necessary for a comprehensive welfare evaluation is not currently available, the study concludes that the countries of the region have committed themselves to a FTA without any definite knowledge of its likely effects.
- Full Text:
- Authors: Cattaneo, Nicolette Sylvie
- Date: 1998
- Subjects: Southern African Development Community , Customs unions , Africa, Southern -- Foreign economic relations , Africa, Southern -- Economic integration
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MSc
- Identifier: vital:1008 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002743 , Southern African Development Community , Customs unions , Africa, Southern -- Foreign economic relations , Africa, Southern -- Economic integration
- Description: The re-acceptance of South Africa into the international community has cleared the path for the closer integration of South Africa with its neighbours in a broader southern African regional union. In particular, the countries of the Southern African Development Community {SADC), which South Africa joined in August 1994, have committed themselves to the formation of a free trade area (FTA) over an eight-year period. The most likely impediment to this process is the perception of a highly unequal distribution of the economic gains and losses of such an arrangement. This reflects the particular context of SADC: one of a comparatively undeveloped region, dominated by a relatively large, more industrially advanced country, which is itself small by international standards. The essential question with which this study is concerned, therefore, is whether, despite the existing inequalities in the region, a FTA among SADC members could be mutually beneficial to South Africa and its partners. The thesis applies orthodox and new trade theory to the analysis of economic integration among unequal partners. Using the theoretical analysis, and with reference to empirical studies of such experience elsewhere in the world, it attempts to provide an assessment of the existing body of literature on the possible effects of a SADC FTA. In the light of this discussion, and from its own preliminary empirical analysis of the possible pattern of inter-sectoral versus intra-sectoral specialisation which may result on union, the study suggests ways in which a fuller evaluation of the welfare implications of a southern African FTA may be achieved. The thesis argues that the orthodox theory based on perfect competition provides an insufficient framework for the analysis of the likely effects of a SADC FT A. It finds that, firstly, in an alternative analytical framework which retains the assumption of perfect competition, there may be other criteria for judging the success of a regional union that are neglected by orthodoxy, particularly in the case of developing countries. Secondly, the new trade theory based on imperfect competition and product differentiation provides useful insights into the possible effects of a regional union among countries at unequal levels of development. The formal extension of this body of literature to the theory of economic integration is clearly called for. It is found, however, that neither orthodox customs union theory, nor its suggested alternatives and extensions, enable one to conclude, a priori, that the formation of a FTA in the southern African region could not be beneficial to both South Africa and its smaller partners. Further, the present empirical studies on SADC do not take account of the full range of factors necessary for a complete welfare assessment of the possible effects. Since the outcome of integration depends on the empirical circumstances of the particular case, and since the information necessary for a comprehensive welfare evaluation is not currently available, the study concludes that the countries of the region have committed themselves to a FTA without any definite knowledge of its likely effects.
- Full Text:
Theories of exchange rates and the methodology of economics
- Authors: Hodge, Duncan
- Date: 1997
- Subjects: Foreign exchange rates Economics -- Methodology
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Doctoral , PhD
- Identifier: vital:1012 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002747
- Description: This thesis is an exercise in applied methodology. Ideas in the history and philosophy of science which have proved to be influential in the methodology of economics, and in shaping economists' self-image in this regard, are selected for closer analysis and criticism. The main ideas that are addressed are those of empiricism, with emphasis on the methodological falsificationism of Karl Popper and Imre Lakatos, and Laudan's problem solving model of scientific progress . The thesis examines the relationship between empirical evidence, in the form of both econometric test results and stylized facts, and the development of theories about exchange rates and the open economy. This analysis begins with Cassel's formulation of purchasing power parity theory in 1916, through the elasticities, absorption, and Mundell-Fleming models of exchange rates and the balance of payments, up to the present day monetary and asset market models. This is done with regard to the broad methodological issues examined earlier in the thesis. Some of the main empirical and methodological difficulties in testing such theories are addressed, with particular reference to the role played by the Duhem-Quine thesis and the ceteris paribus assumption. Although some of these difficulties may be regarded as a matter of degree compared to similar problems in the natural sciences, it is argued that this difference is significant for the workability of falsification in economics . Moreover, the presence of hypotheses about expectations in many economic theories appears to be a substantive difference such that the difficulties posed by the Duhem-Quine thesis apply with much greater force in a social science like economics. The main conclusions are that neither the Popperian nor Lakatosian versions of falsification are seriously practiced in the area of exchange rate economics and that, unlike the position taken by advocates of falsification such as Mark Blaug, it would be inappropriate and misguided to do so. A tentative case is made, with some reference to the theories surveyed in this thesis, for the possibly greater relevance of Laudan' s more pragmatic problem solving model for the methodology of economics, particularly as regards his analysis and emphasis on conceptual problem solving in the progress of knowledge.
- Full Text:
- Authors: Hodge, Duncan
- Date: 1997
- Subjects: Foreign exchange rates Economics -- Methodology
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Doctoral , PhD
- Identifier: vital:1012 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002747
- Description: This thesis is an exercise in applied methodology. Ideas in the history and philosophy of science which have proved to be influential in the methodology of economics, and in shaping economists' self-image in this regard, are selected for closer analysis and criticism. The main ideas that are addressed are those of empiricism, with emphasis on the methodological falsificationism of Karl Popper and Imre Lakatos, and Laudan's problem solving model of scientific progress . The thesis examines the relationship between empirical evidence, in the form of both econometric test results and stylized facts, and the development of theories about exchange rates and the open economy. This analysis begins with Cassel's formulation of purchasing power parity theory in 1916, through the elasticities, absorption, and Mundell-Fleming models of exchange rates and the balance of payments, up to the present day monetary and asset market models. This is done with regard to the broad methodological issues examined earlier in the thesis. Some of the main empirical and methodological difficulties in testing such theories are addressed, with particular reference to the role played by the Duhem-Quine thesis and the ceteris paribus assumption. Although some of these difficulties may be regarded as a matter of degree compared to similar problems in the natural sciences, it is argued that this difference is significant for the workability of falsification in economics . Moreover, the presence of hypotheses about expectations in many economic theories appears to be a substantive difference such that the difficulties posed by the Duhem-Quine thesis apply with much greater force in a social science like economics. The main conclusions are that neither the Popperian nor Lakatosian versions of falsification are seriously practiced in the area of exchange rate economics and that, unlike the position taken by advocates of falsification such as Mark Blaug, it would be inappropriate and misguided to do so. A tentative case is made, with some reference to the theories surveyed in this thesis, for the possibly greater relevance of Laudan' s more pragmatic problem solving model for the methodology of economics, particularly as regards his analysis and emphasis on conceptual problem solving in the progress of knowledge.
- Full Text:
Economic incentives in controlling pollution in the South African leather industry
- Authors: Mowat, Shaun Phillip
- Date: 1996
- Subjects: Leather industry and trade -- South Africa , Tanneries -- Waste disposal -- Economic aspects
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MSocSc
- Identifier: vital:1010 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002745 , Leather industry and trade -- South Africa , Tanneries -- Waste disposal -- Economic aspects
- Description: The objective of the research was to ascertain whether, when compared to a system'of standards, the theoretical promise that economic incentives offered as a low cost solution to the abatement problem, would hold in practice. This was done by applying environmental economic theory to the practical problem of controlling the effluent generated by firms in the South African leather industry. It was found that in this instance the theory did indeed hold in practice. Furthermore, it was found that of the incentives discussed by the theory, marketable permits were the most economically efficient. It was however shown that a charge - not discussed in the ., theory - based on a central treatment agency's (CTA) cost of treatment offered the least cost solution to the abatement problem when the CTA could do at least some of the effluent treatment at a lower cost than the firms. - In addition a formula was developed to show the net benefits accruing to an individual firm if it undertook to treat its effluent. It was shown that in order to maximise the total benefits of treatment, a firm should treat until its net benefits of treatment were zero. A number of problem however were found to exist when the theory was applied to a practical situation. The most important was the "stepped" nature of the firms marginal abatement cost curves which meant that the setting of a charge based on a trial and error method would prove to be more difficult than the theory envisaged. Furthermore, it meant that no matter what method of pollution control was used, it would prove i~possible to reduce effluent to an optimal level. It was recommended that greater use be made of economic incentives to control all industrial effluent. It would nonetheless be necessary to do more research in this field as the theory was not tailor made for all practical situations. Further evidence of the viability of economic incentives could however encourage wider use by policy makers.
- Full Text:
- Authors: Mowat, Shaun Phillip
- Date: 1996
- Subjects: Leather industry and trade -- South Africa , Tanneries -- Waste disposal -- Economic aspects
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MSocSc
- Identifier: vital:1010 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002745 , Leather industry and trade -- South Africa , Tanneries -- Waste disposal -- Economic aspects
- Description: The objective of the research was to ascertain whether, when compared to a system'of standards, the theoretical promise that economic incentives offered as a low cost solution to the abatement problem, would hold in practice. This was done by applying environmental economic theory to the practical problem of controlling the effluent generated by firms in the South African leather industry. It was found that in this instance the theory did indeed hold in practice. Furthermore, it was found that of the incentives discussed by the theory, marketable permits were the most economically efficient. It was however shown that a charge - not discussed in the ., theory - based on a central treatment agency's (CTA) cost of treatment offered the least cost solution to the abatement problem when the CTA could do at least some of the effluent treatment at a lower cost than the firms. - In addition a formula was developed to show the net benefits accruing to an individual firm if it undertook to treat its effluent. It was shown that in order to maximise the total benefits of treatment, a firm should treat until its net benefits of treatment were zero. A number of problem however were found to exist when the theory was applied to a practical situation. The most important was the "stepped" nature of the firms marginal abatement cost curves which meant that the setting of a charge based on a trial and error method would prove to be more difficult than the theory envisaged. Furthermore, it meant that no matter what method of pollution control was used, it would prove i~possible to reduce effluent to an optimal level. It was recommended that greater use be made of economic incentives to control all industrial effluent. It would nonetheless be necessary to do more research in this field as the theory was not tailor made for all practical situations. Further evidence of the viability of economic incentives could however encourage wider use by policy makers.
- Full Text:
The effects of trade policy on the development of the South African petrochemical industry
- Authors: Giantsos, John
- Date: 1995
- Subjects: Petroleum chemicals industry -- South Africa , Petroleum industry and trade -- Government policy -- South Africa , Petroleum chemicals industry , South Africa -- Commerce
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MA
- Identifier: vital:1014 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002749 , Petroleum chemicals industry -- South Africa , Petroleum industry and trade -- Government policy -- South Africa , Petroleum chemicals industry , South Africa -- Commerce
- Description: The objective of the research was to determine the role which South African trade policy played in shaping the development of the domestic petrochemical industry. The focus of the study falls on the domestic development of the petrochemical industry in general, and the polymer industry in particular. Three broad stages are distinguished in the domestic development of the petrochemical industry. Prior to the early 1970's development occurred primarily on an ad hoc basis, with the establishment of domestic production plants for most major petrochemicals. The development of the domestic petrochemical industry over the period from the early 1970's to the early 1980's was characterised by rapid growth in the domestic production of petrochemicals, while the period from the early 1980's to the early 1990's saw a significant slowdown in the annual growth rate for the domestic production of petrochemicals. The role of trade policy in the industry's development over each of these three periods could not be established conclusively. In each period a number of factors were identified which may have impacted on the industry's development. However, two factors do appear to have played particularly important roles in the industry's development prior to the early 1980's, namely strong growth in domestic petrochemical demand and the provision of a substantial degree of protection through quantitative import controls and tariffs. with regard to the industry's development over the period from the early 1980's to the early 1990's, a number of factors were identified which may have influenced trends in domestic petrochemical production, including the withdrawal of quantitative import controls and the progressive lowering of import tariffs, the depreciation of the rand in the mid-1980's, a slowdown in the growth of the domestic demand for petrochemicals, the fall in the international prices of petrochemicals in the early 1980's, and the fall in the international oil price in the mid-1980's. In view of the small size of the domestic petrochemical market it is recommended that local petrochemical producers should continue to expand their focus beyond that of producing solely for the requirements of the domestic market. In light of the key role played by the petrochemical industry in a modern economy, it is also recommended that the industry in South Africa receive more attention from policy makers than it has in the past.
- Full Text:
- Authors: Giantsos, John
- Date: 1995
- Subjects: Petroleum chemicals industry -- South Africa , Petroleum industry and trade -- Government policy -- South Africa , Petroleum chemicals industry , South Africa -- Commerce
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MA
- Identifier: vital:1014 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002749 , Petroleum chemicals industry -- South Africa , Petroleum industry and trade -- Government policy -- South Africa , Petroleum chemicals industry , South Africa -- Commerce
- Description: The objective of the research was to determine the role which South African trade policy played in shaping the development of the domestic petrochemical industry. The focus of the study falls on the domestic development of the petrochemical industry in general, and the polymer industry in particular. Three broad stages are distinguished in the domestic development of the petrochemical industry. Prior to the early 1970's development occurred primarily on an ad hoc basis, with the establishment of domestic production plants for most major petrochemicals. The development of the domestic petrochemical industry over the period from the early 1970's to the early 1980's was characterised by rapid growth in the domestic production of petrochemicals, while the period from the early 1980's to the early 1990's saw a significant slowdown in the annual growth rate for the domestic production of petrochemicals. The role of trade policy in the industry's development over each of these three periods could not be established conclusively. In each period a number of factors were identified which may have impacted on the industry's development. However, two factors do appear to have played particularly important roles in the industry's development prior to the early 1980's, namely strong growth in domestic petrochemical demand and the provision of a substantial degree of protection through quantitative import controls and tariffs. with regard to the industry's development over the period from the early 1980's to the early 1990's, a number of factors were identified which may have influenced trends in domestic petrochemical production, including the withdrawal of quantitative import controls and the progressive lowering of import tariffs, the depreciation of the rand in the mid-1980's, a slowdown in the growth of the domestic demand for petrochemicals, the fall in the international prices of petrochemicals in the early 1980's, and the fall in the international oil price in the mid-1980's. In view of the small size of the domestic petrochemical market it is recommended that local petrochemical producers should continue to expand their focus beyond that of producing solely for the requirements of the domestic market. In light of the key role played by the petrochemical industry in a modern economy, it is also recommended that the industry in South Africa receive more attention from policy makers than it has in the past.
- Full Text:
Measures and determinants of productivity growth in the South African manufacturing sector
- Authors: Wright, Anthony John
- Date: 1994
- Subjects: Industrial productivity -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1019 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002754 , Industrial productivity -- South Africa
- Description: The neoclassical "sources-of-growth" approach is applied to derive total factor productivity (TFP) growth measures for manufacturing industries in South Africa. Although South Africa's recorded industrial TFP growth measures have been persistently low in absolute terms, this performance is not significantly worse than the industrial TFP growth performance of other developing countries. In some periods there is evidence of a significant variability in TFP performance across industries. The measures also indicate that TFP growth has worsened in the 1980s, particularly in the intermediate-capital intensive and labour intensive industries. However, there are various problems with interpreting neoclassical TFP growth measures as indicators of production efficiency. In fact, as TFP growth is derived as a residual, it may measure many factors besides production efficiency. Alternative growth theories are used to assess the fundamental determinants of productivity growth. These provide a more plausible conceptualisation of the process by which productivity growth is generated than the neoclassical growth theory does. However, this analysis also provides little empirical evidence of which underlying factors have had the most influence on productivity growth in South African manufacturing. Hence, the relative importance of possible candidates can only really be assessed qualitatively and on the basis of micro evidence. However, these assessments, and the assumptions underlying the postulated causal connections (between the identified factors and productivity growth), have a major impact on policy design. In this respect, on the basis of the framework provided by the evolutionary and other recent growth theories, various policy implications are drawn, and these are contrasted with the policy proposals of other South African analysts. This thesis concludes that policies need to be designed with the central objective of enhancing the technological capabilities of South African firms. Trade policies will not be sufficient for achieving this objective. Education and training policies, technology, competition and labour market policies are also crucial. However, since the fundamental causes of productivity growth remain somewhat of a mystery, there is a need to be sceptical of simple policy prescriptions. In this respect, this thesis is highly critical of the World Bank's position that productivity gains will be reaped from the exposure of firms to international competition that trade liberalisation policies entail.
- Full Text:
- Authors: Wright, Anthony John
- Date: 1994
- Subjects: Industrial productivity -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1019 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002754 , Industrial productivity -- South Africa
- Description: The neoclassical "sources-of-growth" approach is applied to derive total factor productivity (TFP) growth measures for manufacturing industries in South Africa. Although South Africa's recorded industrial TFP growth measures have been persistently low in absolute terms, this performance is not significantly worse than the industrial TFP growth performance of other developing countries. In some periods there is evidence of a significant variability in TFP performance across industries. The measures also indicate that TFP growth has worsened in the 1980s, particularly in the intermediate-capital intensive and labour intensive industries. However, there are various problems with interpreting neoclassical TFP growth measures as indicators of production efficiency. In fact, as TFP growth is derived as a residual, it may measure many factors besides production efficiency. Alternative growth theories are used to assess the fundamental determinants of productivity growth. These provide a more plausible conceptualisation of the process by which productivity growth is generated than the neoclassical growth theory does. However, this analysis also provides little empirical evidence of which underlying factors have had the most influence on productivity growth in South African manufacturing. Hence, the relative importance of possible candidates can only really be assessed qualitatively and on the basis of micro evidence. However, these assessments, and the assumptions underlying the postulated causal connections (between the identified factors and productivity growth), have a major impact on policy design. In this respect, on the basis of the framework provided by the evolutionary and other recent growth theories, various policy implications are drawn, and these are contrasted with the policy proposals of other South African analysts. This thesis concludes that policies need to be designed with the central objective of enhancing the technological capabilities of South African firms. Trade policies will not be sufficient for achieving this objective. Education and training policies, technology, competition and labour market policies are also crucial. However, since the fundamental causes of productivity growth remain somewhat of a mystery, there is a need to be sceptical of simple policy prescriptions. In this respect, this thesis is highly critical of the World Bank's position that productivity gains will be reaped from the exposure of firms to international competition that trade liberalisation policies entail.
- Full Text:
A cost-benefit analysis of electricity supply in a developing country, with reference to Venda
- Authors: Themeli, Tshimangadzo Booi
- Date: 1992
- Subjects: Electrification -- Economic aspects -- South Africa -- Venda , Electric utilities -- South Africa -- Venda , Cost effectiveness , Electrification -- Cost effectiveness
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1022 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002757 , Electrification -- Economic aspects -- South Africa -- Venda , Electric utilities -- South Africa -- Venda , Cost effectiveness , Electrification -- Cost effectiveness
- Description: This study concentrates specificaUy on assessing those elements of private and external costs and benefits which need to be accounted for in analyzing the role of electricity supply in a developing region. To facilitate this aim, three interrelated questions are addressed. The first question examines the reasons why a critical need for electrification in developing areas exists. In this regard, a selective review of the literature on development economics is offered, illuminating the previous neglect of the rural dimension in development and the associated problems of poverty and inequality, a lack of infrastructure and the general inability to fulfill basic needs. The second question is devoted exclusively to an economic analysis of the supply of electricity in developing areas. A broad theoretical review on whether an unregulated or regulated (private or public) sector should be responsible for the provision of electrification is presented. This evaluation highlights the various welfare implications and efficiency considerations that appear to be relevant in the present context. The final question, which constitutes the central proposition of the thesis, establishes how electrification should be supplied in developing areas. To this end, the conditions specific to a region in Venda are discussed. An attempt is made to identify the private and external costs and benefits relating to electricity supply and the corresponding costs and benefits pertaining to alternative sources of energy. Since the incidence and nature of these costs and benefits could only be ascertained from individual households, it was deemed necessary to undertake a questionnaire study of residents in Makwarela township and its periurban settlement of Lufule-Tshisele. A number of basic trends were evident from the research results. As far as the various benefits are concerned, respondents tended to place a much higher value on both the private and external benefits associated with electricity than its alternatives. At the same time, the survey found that although the private (or monetary) cost of electricity far exceeded the corresponding cost of alternative energy sources, the external costs were significant in the case of alternative energy sources, but virtually non-existent in the case of electricity. On the whole, the Venda survey seems to suggest that an economic case can be made for involving the broader community in subsidising the supply of electricity in Makwarela, Lufule-Tshisele and other areas. While such a subsidy can perhaps be justified on distribution grounds alone, and more specifically in terms of the rapid and pronounced effect it is likely to have on the quality of life in the region, its real worth lies in the fact that it may confer certain external benefits on the community.
- Full Text:
- Authors: Themeli, Tshimangadzo Booi
- Date: 1992
- Subjects: Electrification -- Economic aspects -- South Africa -- Venda , Electric utilities -- South Africa -- Venda , Cost effectiveness , Electrification -- Cost effectiveness
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1022 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002757 , Electrification -- Economic aspects -- South Africa -- Venda , Electric utilities -- South Africa -- Venda , Cost effectiveness , Electrification -- Cost effectiveness
- Description: This study concentrates specificaUy on assessing those elements of private and external costs and benefits which need to be accounted for in analyzing the role of electricity supply in a developing region. To facilitate this aim, three interrelated questions are addressed. The first question examines the reasons why a critical need for electrification in developing areas exists. In this regard, a selective review of the literature on development economics is offered, illuminating the previous neglect of the rural dimension in development and the associated problems of poverty and inequality, a lack of infrastructure and the general inability to fulfill basic needs. The second question is devoted exclusively to an economic analysis of the supply of electricity in developing areas. A broad theoretical review on whether an unregulated or regulated (private or public) sector should be responsible for the provision of electrification is presented. This evaluation highlights the various welfare implications and efficiency considerations that appear to be relevant in the present context. The final question, which constitutes the central proposition of the thesis, establishes how electrification should be supplied in developing areas. To this end, the conditions specific to a region in Venda are discussed. An attempt is made to identify the private and external costs and benefits relating to electricity supply and the corresponding costs and benefits pertaining to alternative sources of energy. Since the incidence and nature of these costs and benefits could only be ascertained from individual households, it was deemed necessary to undertake a questionnaire study of residents in Makwarela township and its periurban settlement of Lufule-Tshisele. A number of basic trends were evident from the research results. As far as the various benefits are concerned, respondents tended to place a much higher value on both the private and external benefits associated with electricity than its alternatives. At the same time, the survey found that although the private (or monetary) cost of electricity far exceeded the corresponding cost of alternative energy sources, the external costs were significant in the case of alternative energy sources, but virtually non-existent in the case of electricity. On the whole, the Venda survey seems to suggest that an economic case can be made for involving the broader community in subsidising the supply of electricity in Makwarela, Lufule-Tshisele and other areas. While such a subsidy can perhaps be justified on distribution grounds alone, and more specifically in terms of the rapid and pronounced effect it is likely to have on the quality of life in the region, its real worth lies in the fact that it may confer certain external benefits on the community.
- Full Text:
A critical analysis of the marketing of mohair in South Africa with special reference to the period 1963 to 1989
- Norton, Eustace Herbert Fraser
- Authors: Norton, Eustace Herbert Fraser
- Date: 1992
- Subjects: Mohair -- South Africa -- Marketing , Mohair industry -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1020 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002755 , Mohair -- South Africa -- Marketing , Mohair industry -- South Africa
- Description: The objective of the research was to determine the extent to which marketing in general, and the Mohair Scheme in particular, played a part in the re-emergence of South Africa as the world's leading mohair producer. The two major components of the Scheme, the 'voorskot', or initial payment, and reserve prices were analysed separately. In an adaptive expectations, distributed lag model of supply adjustment, only the weighted rainfall and the average real net price of mohair during the previous season, were found to be important determinants of mohair production. The significant negative correlation between the average real net 'voorskot' price and mohair production was contrary to expectations, and probably due to the 'voorskot' always having been set well below the market price. The 'voorskot' may nevertheless have played an important part in making the Scheme as a whole acceptable to producers. As no record is kept of the reserve price, its influence was tested indirectly in two stages. In the first, its influence on price stability was determined by a comparison of ranges, standard deviations and variances, and by several multiple linear demand regressions. Three of the four models showed clearly that price stability was increased by the Mohair Scheme. In the second stage, formulae and diagrammatic analyses were used to assess the welfare gains and losses resulting from the Mohair Scheme. There was a welfare gain to local producers and most of the welfare costs of the Scheme were borne by foreign consumers. With this gain to producers and the more stable price, it was concluded that the reserve price had stimulated mohair production. It was therefore established that the Mohair Scheme had played a major part in the re-emergence of South Africa as the world' s leading mohair producer. Nevertheless, in view of the massive stockpiling in recent seasons, because the reserve price was set too high, the result was a substantial loss to the Scheme; it was therefore recommended that the Mohair Scheme be discontinued or, at least, that the reserve price should be set at a much lower long-run, market clearing level.
- Full Text:
- Authors: Norton, Eustace Herbert Fraser
- Date: 1992
- Subjects: Mohair -- South Africa -- Marketing , Mohair industry -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1020 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002755 , Mohair -- South Africa -- Marketing , Mohair industry -- South Africa
- Description: The objective of the research was to determine the extent to which marketing in general, and the Mohair Scheme in particular, played a part in the re-emergence of South Africa as the world's leading mohair producer. The two major components of the Scheme, the 'voorskot', or initial payment, and reserve prices were analysed separately. In an adaptive expectations, distributed lag model of supply adjustment, only the weighted rainfall and the average real net price of mohair during the previous season, were found to be important determinants of mohair production. The significant negative correlation between the average real net 'voorskot' price and mohair production was contrary to expectations, and probably due to the 'voorskot' always having been set well below the market price. The 'voorskot' may nevertheless have played an important part in making the Scheme as a whole acceptable to producers. As no record is kept of the reserve price, its influence was tested indirectly in two stages. In the first, its influence on price stability was determined by a comparison of ranges, standard deviations and variances, and by several multiple linear demand regressions. Three of the four models showed clearly that price stability was increased by the Mohair Scheme. In the second stage, formulae and diagrammatic analyses were used to assess the welfare gains and losses resulting from the Mohair Scheme. There was a welfare gain to local producers and most of the welfare costs of the Scheme were borne by foreign consumers. With this gain to producers and the more stable price, it was concluded that the reserve price had stimulated mohair production. It was therefore established that the Mohair Scheme had played a major part in the re-emergence of South Africa as the world' s leading mohair producer. Nevertheless, in view of the massive stockpiling in recent seasons, because the reserve price was set too high, the result was a substantial loss to the Scheme; it was therefore recommended that the Mohair Scheme be discontinued or, at least, that the reserve price should be set at a much lower long-run, market clearing level.
- Full Text:
An economic analysis of government expenditure allocations to black schooling in South Africa
- Authors: Hosking, Stephen Gerald
- Date: 1991
- Subjects: Black people -- Education -- Economic aspects -- South Africa , Education -- Economic aspects -- South Africa , Education and state -- South Africa , Education -- Finance -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Doctoral , PhD
- Identifier: vital:925 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1001451
- Description: In this thesis an assessment is made of the contribution of economic theory to the debate on government expenditure allocations to schooling in developing countries. Publicly provided Black schooling in South Africa is taken as the case study and viewed in the light of historical perspectives, as well as human capital, rent-seeking, welfare, liberal and contractarian theory. From an historical perspective, the willingness of Blacks to enrol at schools under National Party control, despite the poor quality of such schooling and lack of labour market incentives for them to do so, is paradoxical. It leads to the conclusion that under National Party administration the private benefit of Black schooling exceeded the private cost; a situation which is argued to have been influenced by rent-seeking. The propositions that government expenditure on Black schooling is a profitable social investment, and that rent-seeking has influenced the allocations of government expenditure on Black and White education are then investigated. Empirical support is found for both propositions, but it is based on the use of controversial methods and measures. The provision of education by the state can be justified on many economic grounds; the most popular being that this improves welfare by bringing about a better distribution of income or by redressing market failure. However, as there are major problems with this approach, it is concluded that neoclassical welfare theory fails to provide a persuasive justification for current levels of government expenditure on Black schooling. The provision of Black schooling by the state can also be justified in terms of liberal objectives. Classical and reform liberalism and their respective conclusions are examined. Marxist views on the role played by the state in the provision of education are also considered, but not found to be appropriate. Two contractarian assessments of the government's role in the provision of Black schooling are also provided in this thesis. They are based on the works of John Rawls (1971 and 1974) and James Buchanan (1986). The approach taken by James Buchanan is argued to be more appropriate to South African circumstances than Rawls's, and it is in the context of the former that problems with respect to public decisions on education and possible solutions to them are discussed. The conclusion of the thesis is that economic theory offers only a limited explanation for government expenditure allocations to Black education in South Africa
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- Authors: Hosking, Stephen Gerald
- Date: 1991
- Subjects: Black people -- Education -- Economic aspects -- South Africa , Education -- Economic aspects -- South Africa , Education and state -- South Africa , Education -- Finance -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Doctoral , PhD
- Identifier: vital:925 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1001451
- Description: In this thesis an assessment is made of the contribution of economic theory to the debate on government expenditure allocations to schooling in developing countries. Publicly provided Black schooling in South Africa is taken as the case study and viewed in the light of historical perspectives, as well as human capital, rent-seeking, welfare, liberal and contractarian theory. From an historical perspective, the willingness of Blacks to enrol at schools under National Party control, despite the poor quality of such schooling and lack of labour market incentives for them to do so, is paradoxical. It leads to the conclusion that under National Party administration the private benefit of Black schooling exceeded the private cost; a situation which is argued to have been influenced by rent-seeking. The propositions that government expenditure on Black schooling is a profitable social investment, and that rent-seeking has influenced the allocations of government expenditure on Black and White education are then investigated. Empirical support is found for both propositions, but it is based on the use of controversial methods and measures. The provision of education by the state can be justified on many economic grounds; the most popular being that this improves welfare by bringing about a better distribution of income or by redressing market failure. However, as there are major problems with this approach, it is concluded that neoclassical welfare theory fails to provide a persuasive justification for current levels of government expenditure on Black schooling. The provision of Black schooling by the state can also be justified in terms of liberal objectives. Classical and reform liberalism and their respective conclusions are examined. Marxist views on the role played by the state in the provision of education are also considered, but not found to be appropriate. Two contractarian assessments of the government's role in the provision of Black schooling are also provided in this thesis. They are based on the works of John Rawls (1971 and 1974) and James Buchanan (1986). The approach taken by James Buchanan is argued to be more appropriate to South African circumstances than Rawls's, and it is in the context of the former that problems with respect to public decisions on education and possible solutions to them are discussed. The conclusion of the thesis is that economic theory offers only a limited explanation for government expenditure allocations to Black education in South Africa
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The informal sector in the Eastern Cape: a case study of New Brighton and Kwamagxaki, Port Elizabeth
- Authors: Sofisa, Thembela Nicholas
- Date: 1991
- Subjects: Informal sector (Economics) -- South Africa -- Port Elizabeth , Self-employed -- South Africa , New Brighton (Port Elizabeth, South Africa) , Port Elizabeth (South Africa) -- Economic conditions , KwaMagxaki (Port Elizabeth, South Africa)
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MA
- Identifier: vital:934 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002667 , Informal sector (Economics) -- South Africa -- Port Elizabeth , Self-employed -- South Africa , New Brighton (Port Elizabeth, South Africa) , Port Elizabeth (South Africa) -- Economic conditions
- Description: Recently, researchers have shown enormous interest in the informal sector due to extensive poverty and rising unemployment trend in the South African economy. These problems have worsened in the Port Elizabeth economy, as most entrepreneurs have scaled down their operations or liquidated their businesses due to a structural decline in the manufacturing sector and periodic recessions in the national economy. Undoubtedly, the informal sector has become a reasonable economic alternative as far as income accumulation and employment generation. The present study shows that the informal sector is characterised mainly by self-employment and also the income from this sector has also improved the standard of living of most sampled households in New Brighton and KwaMagxaki. The aim of this thesis, then, is to evaluate the nature, extent, meaning and influence of the informal sector in the Port Elizabeth Black economy. However, this can only be achieved once the informal sector is placed within the appropriate theoretical framework. This is done by comparing and contrasting the different conceptualisations of the informal sector in the literature. In conclusion, the thesis combines the different conceptualisations of the informal sector in the literature with the empirical evidence from the Port Elizabeth townships' informal sector. The important findings of the study are: The informal sector is mainly characterised by distributive activities than productive activities. Women comprised 62% of the informal sector. Economically-active members of the economy are in the informal sector. Education levels in this sector are relatively low. The informal sector is characterised by one-man businesses with few employees who are also family members. There was no trace of migrants in the informal sector. The informal sector is characterised by linkages. Informal income alleviates conditions of poverty. Policies have to implemented for the development of the informal sector. Twenty-three percent of the households in New Brighton were in the informal sector and only 6% in KwaMagxaki. Although, this study focuses in Port Elizabeth, it is the intention that the results presented will provide a broad overview of what the informal sector is.
- Full Text:
The informal sector in the Eastern Cape: a case study of New Brighton and Kwamagxaki, Port Elizabeth
- Authors: Sofisa, Thembela Nicholas
- Date: 1991
- Subjects: Informal sector (Economics) -- South Africa -- Port Elizabeth , Self-employed -- South Africa , New Brighton (Port Elizabeth, South Africa) , Port Elizabeth (South Africa) -- Economic conditions , KwaMagxaki (Port Elizabeth, South Africa)
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MA
- Identifier: vital:934 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002667 , Informal sector (Economics) -- South Africa -- Port Elizabeth , Self-employed -- South Africa , New Brighton (Port Elizabeth, South Africa) , Port Elizabeth (South Africa) -- Economic conditions
- Description: Recently, researchers have shown enormous interest in the informal sector due to extensive poverty and rising unemployment trend in the South African economy. These problems have worsened in the Port Elizabeth economy, as most entrepreneurs have scaled down their operations or liquidated their businesses due to a structural decline in the manufacturing sector and periodic recessions in the national economy. Undoubtedly, the informal sector has become a reasonable economic alternative as far as income accumulation and employment generation. The present study shows that the informal sector is characterised mainly by self-employment and also the income from this sector has also improved the standard of living of most sampled households in New Brighton and KwaMagxaki. The aim of this thesis, then, is to evaluate the nature, extent, meaning and influence of the informal sector in the Port Elizabeth Black economy. However, this can only be achieved once the informal sector is placed within the appropriate theoretical framework. This is done by comparing and contrasting the different conceptualisations of the informal sector in the literature. In conclusion, the thesis combines the different conceptualisations of the informal sector in the literature with the empirical evidence from the Port Elizabeth townships' informal sector. The important findings of the study are: The informal sector is mainly characterised by distributive activities than productive activities. Women comprised 62% of the informal sector. Economically-active members of the economy are in the informal sector. Education levels in this sector are relatively low. The informal sector is characterised by one-man businesses with few employees who are also family members. There was no trace of migrants in the informal sector. The informal sector is characterised by linkages. Informal income alleviates conditions of poverty. Policies have to implemented for the development of the informal sector. Twenty-three percent of the households in New Brighton were in the informal sector and only 6% in KwaMagxaki. Although, this study focuses in Port Elizabeth, it is the intention that the results presented will provide a broad overview of what the informal sector is.
- Full Text: