Financial technology and bank risk-taking behavior: a case of selected South African banks
- Authors: Magula, Zizipho
- Date: 2022-04-06
- Subjects: Uncatalogued
- Language: English
- Type: Master's theses , text
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/234206 , vital:50172
- Description: Thesis (MCom) -- Faculty of Commerce, Economics and Economic History, 2022
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2022-04-06
- Authors: Magula, Zizipho
- Date: 2022-04-06
- Subjects: Uncatalogued
- Language: English
- Type: Master's theses , text
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/234206 , vital:50172
- Description: Thesis (MCom) -- Faculty of Commerce, Economics and Economic History, 2022
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2022-04-06
Industrial policy, institutions and industrial financing in South Africa: the role of the IDC and DBSA, and lessons from Brazil’s BNDES
- Authors: Fumbata, Nandipha
- Date: 2016
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1132 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1021278
- Description: Institutions, particularly development finance institutions (DFIs) have been instrumental in economic development and the implementation of industrial policy throughout history. In 2007, the South African government identified the country’s DFIs as key to the implementation of its new industrial policy framework with the main objective of job creation. This thesis examines the impact that South Africa’s DFIs, particularly the IDC and the DBSA, have had on employment creation from 2010 to 2014. A comparative institutional approach is adopted in a case study analysis examining the role of the state in industrial financing. The financing activities of Brazil’s BNDES are explored by comparison to determine if there are possible lessons for South Africa. An analysis of the DFIs’ financial and annual reports and government policy documents is conducted. The political settlements framework is used as a basis for understanding the balance of power within the country and the impact this has had on the country’s industrial policy and industrial finance. The thesis finds that the financing activities of South Africa’s DFIs, particularly the IDC, have been directed at large scale capital intensive projects, with a large portion of disbursements channelled towards mining and mineral beneficiation. These sectors have also facilitated the most number of jobs. Even though the activities of the country’s DFIs are consistent with South Africa’s industrial policy and have facilitated job creation, it is evident that these efforts have not been on a scale that is large enough to reduce unemployment. Despite the DFIs’ efforts, there has been an increase in the number of unemployed South Africans between 2010 and 2014.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2016
- Authors: Fumbata, Nandipha
- Date: 2016
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1132 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1021278
- Description: Institutions, particularly development finance institutions (DFIs) have been instrumental in economic development and the implementation of industrial policy throughout history. In 2007, the South African government identified the country’s DFIs as key to the implementation of its new industrial policy framework with the main objective of job creation. This thesis examines the impact that South Africa’s DFIs, particularly the IDC and the DBSA, have had on employment creation from 2010 to 2014. A comparative institutional approach is adopted in a case study analysis examining the role of the state in industrial financing. The financing activities of Brazil’s BNDES are explored by comparison to determine if there are possible lessons for South Africa. An analysis of the DFIs’ financial and annual reports and government policy documents is conducted. The political settlements framework is used as a basis for understanding the balance of power within the country and the impact this has had on the country’s industrial policy and industrial finance. The thesis finds that the financing activities of South Africa’s DFIs, particularly the IDC, have been directed at large scale capital intensive projects, with a large portion of disbursements channelled towards mining and mineral beneficiation. These sectors have also facilitated the most number of jobs. Even though the activities of the country’s DFIs are consistent with South Africa’s industrial policy and have facilitated job creation, it is evident that these efforts have not been on a scale that is large enough to reduce unemployment. Despite the DFIs’ efforts, there has been an increase in the number of unemployed South Africans between 2010 and 2014.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2016
Inequality in South Africa: a possible solution within the labour market
- Authors: Ferreira, John-Edward
- Date: 2016
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/4047 , vital:20594
- Description: This study sets out to identify the most effective way in which persistently and unacceptably high levels of inequality can be reduced in South Africa. Three alternative approaches were identified from the literature and their impact explored statistically. They are: the introduction of a ‘Social Solidarity Grant’; a decrease in unemployment by 5%; and a narrowing of the skill premium through an expansion of tertiary education. It is important to note that the study makes no attempt at explaining how these outcomes might be implemented or achieved. Rather, it sets out to determine only the effect that such policies may have on measured inequality. It was found that while the introduction of a new grant had a significant effect on inequality, this effect however, was once-off. The grant would be financed by individuals in the top decile through tax increases, which would be a complicated endeavour. Both job creation and a narrowing of the skills premium were significantly effective in decreasing inequality. The narrowing of the skills premium showed more promise due to its accelerating effectiveness in decreasing inequality over time and the fact that it directly addresses the problem of wage differentials. It was noted that the extreme levels of poverty and unemployment in South Africa may dampen enthusiasm for policies that narrow the skills premium to reduce inequality. These characteristics make job creation a more popular policy option because of the positive impact on poverty and unemployment as well as on inequality.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2016
- Authors: Ferreira, John-Edward
- Date: 2016
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/4047 , vital:20594
- Description: This study sets out to identify the most effective way in which persistently and unacceptably high levels of inequality can be reduced in South Africa. Three alternative approaches were identified from the literature and their impact explored statistically. They are: the introduction of a ‘Social Solidarity Grant’; a decrease in unemployment by 5%; and a narrowing of the skill premium through an expansion of tertiary education. It is important to note that the study makes no attempt at explaining how these outcomes might be implemented or achieved. Rather, it sets out to determine only the effect that such policies may have on measured inequality. It was found that while the introduction of a new grant had a significant effect on inequality, this effect however, was once-off. The grant would be financed by individuals in the top decile through tax increases, which would be a complicated endeavour. Both job creation and a narrowing of the skills premium were significantly effective in decreasing inequality. The narrowing of the skills premium showed more promise due to its accelerating effectiveness in decreasing inequality over time and the fact that it directly addresses the problem of wage differentials. It was noted that the extreme levels of poverty and unemployment in South Africa may dampen enthusiasm for policies that narrow the skills premium to reduce inequality. These characteristics make job creation a more popular policy option because of the positive impact on poverty and unemployment as well as on inequality.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2016
The effect of interest rates on investment spending: an empirical analysis of South Africa
- Authors: Dakin, Nicholas John
- Date: 2016
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1131 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1021174
- Description: This thesis investigates the nature and strength of the relationship between short-, medium-, and long-term real interest rates and capital investment spending at both the aggregate and disaggregate levels in South Africa in order to determine whether changes in the real interest rate affect the level of capital investment in the economy. This thesis used quarterly data for the period 1987 to 2013. VAR modelling, variance decompositions, impulse response functions and Granger causality tests are used to explore the nature and strength of the relationship between interest rates and investment spending. It is found that interest rates explain very little of the variation in investment spending and seem to have little impact on investment (of any type). Furthermore, short-, medium- and long-term interest rates have different effects on the level of investment spending. A rise in short-term interest rates appears to decrease the level of investment spending in the long-run, whereas a rise in long-term interest rates results in an increase in investment.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2016
- Authors: Dakin, Nicholas John
- Date: 2016
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1131 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1021174
- Description: This thesis investigates the nature and strength of the relationship between short-, medium-, and long-term real interest rates and capital investment spending at both the aggregate and disaggregate levels in South Africa in order to determine whether changes in the real interest rate affect the level of capital investment in the economy. This thesis used quarterly data for the period 1987 to 2013. VAR modelling, variance decompositions, impulse response functions and Granger causality tests are used to explore the nature and strength of the relationship between interest rates and investment spending. It is found that interest rates explain very little of the variation in investment spending and seem to have little impact on investment (of any type). Furthermore, short-, medium- and long-term interest rates have different effects on the level of investment spending. A rise in short-term interest rates appears to decrease the level of investment spending in the long-run, whereas a rise in long-term interest rates results in an increase in investment.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2016
Water service delivery in Harare: a willingness to pay (WTP) analysis
- Authors: Mugomba, Lynsey M
- Date: 2016
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/4120 , vital:20614
- Description: In 2008-2009, Harare (Zimbabwe) was the centre of the worst cholera outbreak in Africa in the past fifteen years. A key reason cited was the lack of adequate water service delivery by the Harare City Council (HCC). Harare requires an optimum supply of 1 400 mega litres (ML) of water daily but the HCC has capacity to produce 650ML and after leakages and theft, only 400ML reaches consumers. This inadequacy compromised the hygiene of residents and forced them to resort to unsafe water sources. Coupled with a failing healthcare system, the outbreak resulted in over 4 000 deaths and further affected 100 000 people. The HCC attributes its poor service delivery to the lack of funds rendering them unable to adequately increase capacity and refurbish existing infrastructure (treatment plants and pipelines). This thesis serves to explore whether the residents of Harare (and surrounding satellite towns) would be willing to pay monthly contributions towards the USD$2.5 billion needed for various water capacity and infrastructure projects to ease the water crisis in Harare. The study analyses the water problem using a framework on the typical stages of water provision. The research also places an emphasis on the key social, economic and political factors that are contributing to the problem in Harare. Upon closer inspection, it was seen that the financial problems that the HCC is having are not only due to the economy, but poor management and transparency structures are also to blame. For various reasons, the government has largely lost its credibility with its citizens, leading some to conclude that the government’s actions reflect those of a predatory state. The contingent valuation method (willingness to pay-WTP) was used in conjunction with the dichotomous choice referendum. The binary probit model was used to help assess the degree to which different variables influenced the respondent’s decision to contribute to the needed funds. In spite of the seeming lack of trust, it was found that approximately 66.19% of the respondents were willing to pay. Amongst those willing, the mean willingness to pay amount was approximately USD$7 monthly per household.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2016
- Authors: Mugomba, Lynsey M
- Date: 2016
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/4120 , vital:20614
- Description: In 2008-2009, Harare (Zimbabwe) was the centre of the worst cholera outbreak in Africa in the past fifteen years. A key reason cited was the lack of adequate water service delivery by the Harare City Council (HCC). Harare requires an optimum supply of 1 400 mega litres (ML) of water daily but the HCC has capacity to produce 650ML and after leakages and theft, only 400ML reaches consumers. This inadequacy compromised the hygiene of residents and forced them to resort to unsafe water sources. Coupled with a failing healthcare system, the outbreak resulted in over 4 000 deaths and further affected 100 000 people. The HCC attributes its poor service delivery to the lack of funds rendering them unable to adequately increase capacity and refurbish existing infrastructure (treatment plants and pipelines). This thesis serves to explore whether the residents of Harare (and surrounding satellite towns) would be willing to pay monthly contributions towards the USD$2.5 billion needed for various water capacity and infrastructure projects to ease the water crisis in Harare. The study analyses the water problem using a framework on the typical stages of water provision. The research also places an emphasis on the key social, economic and political factors that are contributing to the problem in Harare. Upon closer inspection, it was seen that the financial problems that the HCC is having are not only due to the economy, but poor management and transparency structures are also to blame. For various reasons, the government has largely lost its credibility with its citizens, leading some to conclude that the government’s actions reflect those of a predatory state. The contingent valuation method (willingness to pay-WTP) was used in conjunction with the dichotomous choice referendum. The binary probit model was used to help assess the degree to which different variables influenced the respondent’s decision to contribute to the needed funds. In spite of the seeming lack of trust, it was found that approximately 66.19% of the respondents were willing to pay. Amongst those willing, the mean willingness to pay amount was approximately USD$7 monthly per household.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2016
The effect of strike action on the value and volatility of the South African Rand
- Authors: Gordon, Ross Patrick
- Date: 2015
- Subjects: Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa , Strikes and lockouts -- South Africa -- Economic aspects , South Africa -- Foreign economic relations , South Africa -- Economic conditions -- 1991- , Rand, South African , Dollar, American
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1124 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1020018
- Description: This study analyses whether the advent of strike action has an effect on the value and volatility of the South African Rand compared with the US Dollar. The literature suggests that strike action can have a significant effect on the exchange rate in terms of either value or volatility, and consequences can result that cause inefficiencies in the economy; inhibiting employment and economic growth. Strike action has become common place in South Africa, with 2012 alone recording 99 strikes, 45 of which were “wildcat” or unprotected strikes. This study uses GARCH and Intervention Analyses to determine what the resulting effects of the strikes might be on the exchange rate. The analysis used ZAR/USD exchange rate data for the period January 2000 to October 2013, and covered 72 of the most significant strikes in terms of lost man-days. The results are mixed, suggesting that the effects of strikes do not always conform to expectations (increased volatility and a depreciation in the Rand), and that outside factors affecting the global economy may have a more significant effect on the exchange rate than strikes on their own.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2015
- Authors: Gordon, Ross Patrick
- Date: 2015
- Subjects: Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa , Strikes and lockouts -- South Africa -- Economic aspects , South Africa -- Foreign economic relations , South Africa -- Economic conditions -- 1991- , Rand, South African , Dollar, American
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1124 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1020018
- Description: This study analyses whether the advent of strike action has an effect on the value and volatility of the South African Rand compared with the US Dollar. The literature suggests that strike action can have a significant effect on the exchange rate in terms of either value or volatility, and consequences can result that cause inefficiencies in the economy; inhibiting employment and economic growth. Strike action has become common place in South Africa, with 2012 alone recording 99 strikes, 45 of which were “wildcat” or unprotected strikes. This study uses GARCH and Intervention Analyses to determine what the resulting effects of the strikes might be on the exchange rate. The analysis used ZAR/USD exchange rate data for the period January 2000 to October 2013, and covered 72 of the most significant strikes in terms of lost man-days. The results are mixed, suggesting that the effects of strikes do not always conform to expectations (increased volatility and a depreciation in the Rand), and that outside factors affecting the global economy may have a more significant effect on the exchange rate than strikes on their own.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2015
The interrelationships between foreign direct investment and economic growth in Africa
- Authors: Bolani, Lindelwa Mandisa
- Date: 2015
- Subjects: Investments, Foreign -- Africa , Economic development -- Africa , Africa -- Economic conditions -- 1960- , Africa -- Foreign economic relations , Gross domestic product -- Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1123 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1019885
- Description: There has been a long search for the keys to development and economic growth in Africa. This study investigates the relationship between FDI and economic growth over the period 2000-2012 using data from 48 African countries. On the aggregate regional level FDI and economic growth were found to be positively correlated during this period. Using panel data econometric techniques and the Panel Granger Causality test, results revealed that a bi-directional causality relationship existed between FDI and GDP. Thus, the results suggest that GDP is a requirement for increased investment, and at the same time is the result of increased foreign investment. Thus, the conclusion is that African policy makers are justified in increasing their attempts to create an attractive business environment for foreign investors, as it is beneficial for economic growth.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2015
- Authors: Bolani, Lindelwa Mandisa
- Date: 2015
- Subjects: Investments, Foreign -- Africa , Economic development -- Africa , Africa -- Economic conditions -- 1960- , Africa -- Foreign economic relations , Gross domestic product -- Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1123 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1019885
- Description: There has been a long search for the keys to development and economic growth in Africa. This study investigates the relationship between FDI and economic growth over the period 2000-2012 using data from 48 African countries. On the aggregate regional level FDI and economic growth were found to be positively correlated during this period. Using panel data econometric techniques and the Panel Granger Causality test, results revealed that a bi-directional causality relationship existed between FDI and GDP. Thus, the results suggest that GDP is a requirement for increased investment, and at the same time is the result of increased foreign investment. Thus, the conclusion is that African policy makers are justified in increasing their attempts to create an attractive business environment for foreign investors, as it is beneficial for economic growth.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2015
The perceived visual impacts and attitudes of the Grahamstown community towards the Waainek Wind-Farm
- Authors: Cruickshank, Kyle Mark
- Date: 2014
- Subjects: Renewable energy sources -- South Africa -- Grahamstown Wind power plants -- South Africa -- Grahamstown -- Public opinion Wind power plants -- Social aspects -- South Africa -- Grahamstown Wind power plants -- Environmental aspects -- South Africa -- Grahamstown Wind power plants -- Economic aspects -- South Africa Wind turbines -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MEcon
- Identifier: vital:1085 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1011768
- Description: Renewable energy has become an important feature of most modern economies with clean and non-exhaustible sources of power being given a greater significance. Wind energy is one of the favoured renewable, as it is (2013) generally the cheapest and most mature technology available for commercial use. The South African government, as outlined by the Department of Energy's Integrated Resource Plan (IRP), aims to install 5 GW (Gigawatts) of wind energy by 2020. However, South Africa has had little experience in the wind energy industry which is limited to two projects, Klipheuwel (2002) and Darling (2008). Much effort has been dedicated to calculating balance sheet costs, which carries uncertainty due to the high reliance on country specific and site specific variables. An aspect which deserves more attention, and is often ignored, is the public‟s attitudes towards local wind farm developments, which have been known to "make or break" a project during the planning stages. Public backlashes have mostly been concerned with the visual "intrusiveness" of wind farms in the landscape. Detrimental effects on scenery, while seemingly innocuous, are acknowledged as being the single largest barrier to successful wind farm development. Individuals within an area become sentimentally attached to their surroundings, where significant rapid changes in the landscape are viewed as "damage". Economics recognises such declines in scenic resources as market failures, where an externalised cost is passed on to the public and is often not accounted for by private parties responsible for the liability. The primary objective therefore was to measure the magnitude of the visual impact, caused by the Waainek Wind Farm, on the Grahamstown community. Conventional NIMBY¹ (not in my back yard) reasoning, which seeks to explain local wind farm resistance, has attracted criticism with regard to its simplistic approach to wind farm problem identification. Contemporary arguments propose that NIMBY is a poor explanation for the trouble experienced on the local level because it groups problems into one all-encompassing term, leaving much of the discontent unexplained. Instead, the NIMBY explanation is really a broad set of unattended problems, largely resulting from the unsound practices present in the public participation process. Insufficient community involvement and disparities in the negotiation power structures have become the recent focus in wind farm literature. Essentially, these disparities force opposition groups to select factors which may seem more serious to developers, leading to ineffective remedial measures because the core underlying problems are not being remedied. Thus these considerations formed an additional area of investigation. No NIMBY effect was found for the Grahamstown community, as support for both the local and general level was roughly 80%. The public participation process on the other hand revealed that while many found the practices of the developer to be unfair, attitudes towards the wind farm were not adversely affected, especially for the lower income Grahamstown East areas. While the public participation process in this instance did not have any effect on people’s attitudes, careful inspection of the circumstances need to be given. Wind farms are new to South Africa, where the novelty and benefits are the focus of enthusiasm. Job opportunities as well as clean energy are positive drivers for attitudes; however given time, once the anticipation for wind farms dulls, real problems may be revealed. Thus it is crucial to implement good practice procedures during the public participation process, especially when national adoption rates of wind energy are low. Early implementation of an effective public participation process system will ensure that when major problems do arise in future projects, experience and institutional processes would have had ample opportunity to evolve appropriately over a period of time. The double bounded Contingent Valuation Method was used to value the impact of the wind farm on the Waainek scenery through a hypothetical scenario based procedure which presented pictures of the landscape before and after the wind farm had been installed. Based on the perceived impact of the wind farm, respondents were asked their Willingness to Pay to relocate the development, based solely on visual impacts. Learning design Contingent Valuation (Bateman et al., 2008) is a novel technique employed to familiarize respondents with the hypothetical market institution as well as the scenic goods being valued. Average Willingness to Pay was found to be R67 per month, with a final total monthly negative visual impact of R104,000 to R121,000 per month for the entire Grahamstown community. Grahamstown Central (middle-high income) residents were more likely to pay than Grahamstown East (low-middle income) East residents because of socio-economic differences present in each area. A ranking exercise determined that while negative visual impacts are present, the overall benefits derived from the wind farm are potentially much higher. Additionally, positive scenic improvements were found, but were not measured due to time constraints, and would have worked to reduce the net visual impact of the Waainek Wind Farm. ¹Problem where individuals support the general concept of wind power, but when it comes to local implementation, opposition to the development arises within the same group.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2014
- Authors: Cruickshank, Kyle Mark
- Date: 2014
- Subjects: Renewable energy sources -- South Africa -- Grahamstown Wind power plants -- South Africa -- Grahamstown -- Public opinion Wind power plants -- Social aspects -- South Africa -- Grahamstown Wind power plants -- Environmental aspects -- South Africa -- Grahamstown Wind power plants -- Economic aspects -- South Africa Wind turbines -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MEcon
- Identifier: vital:1085 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1011768
- Description: Renewable energy has become an important feature of most modern economies with clean and non-exhaustible sources of power being given a greater significance. Wind energy is one of the favoured renewable, as it is (2013) generally the cheapest and most mature technology available for commercial use. The South African government, as outlined by the Department of Energy's Integrated Resource Plan (IRP), aims to install 5 GW (Gigawatts) of wind energy by 2020. However, South Africa has had little experience in the wind energy industry which is limited to two projects, Klipheuwel (2002) and Darling (2008). Much effort has been dedicated to calculating balance sheet costs, which carries uncertainty due to the high reliance on country specific and site specific variables. An aspect which deserves more attention, and is often ignored, is the public‟s attitudes towards local wind farm developments, which have been known to "make or break" a project during the planning stages. Public backlashes have mostly been concerned with the visual "intrusiveness" of wind farms in the landscape. Detrimental effects on scenery, while seemingly innocuous, are acknowledged as being the single largest barrier to successful wind farm development. Individuals within an area become sentimentally attached to their surroundings, where significant rapid changes in the landscape are viewed as "damage". Economics recognises such declines in scenic resources as market failures, where an externalised cost is passed on to the public and is often not accounted for by private parties responsible for the liability. The primary objective therefore was to measure the magnitude of the visual impact, caused by the Waainek Wind Farm, on the Grahamstown community. Conventional NIMBY¹ (not in my back yard) reasoning, which seeks to explain local wind farm resistance, has attracted criticism with regard to its simplistic approach to wind farm problem identification. Contemporary arguments propose that NIMBY is a poor explanation for the trouble experienced on the local level because it groups problems into one all-encompassing term, leaving much of the discontent unexplained. Instead, the NIMBY explanation is really a broad set of unattended problems, largely resulting from the unsound practices present in the public participation process. Insufficient community involvement and disparities in the negotiation power structures have become the recent focus in wind farm literature. Essentially, these disparities force opposition groups to select factors which may seem more serious to developers, leading to ineffective remedial measures because the core underlying problems are not being remedied. Thus these considerations formed an additional area of investigation. No NIMBY effect was found for the Grahamstown community, as support for both the local and general level was roughly 80%. The public participation process on the other hand revealed that while many found the practices of the developer to be unfair, attitudes towards the wind farm were not adversely affected, especially for the lower income Grahamstown East areas. While the public participation process in this instance did not have any effect on people’s attitudes, careful inspection of the circumstances need to be given. Wind farms are new to South Africa, where the novelty and benefits are the focus of enthusiasm. Job opportunities as well as clean energy are positive drivers for attitudes; however given time, once the anticipation for wind farms dulls, real problems may be revealed. Thus it is crucial to implement good practice procedures during the public participation process, especially when national adoption rates of wind energy are low. Early implementation of an effective public participation process system will ensure that when major problems do arise in future projects, experience and institutional processes would have had ample opportunity to evolve appropriately over a period of time. The double bounded Contingent Valuation Method was used to value the impact of the wind farm on the Waainek scenery through a hypothetical scenario based procedure which presented pictures of the landscape before and after the wind farm had been installed. Based on the perceived impact of the wind farm, respondents were asked their Willingness to Pay to relocate the development, based solely on visual impacts. Learning design Contingent Valuation (Bateman et al., 2008) is a novel technique employed to familiarize respondents with the hypothetical market institution as well as the scenic goods being valued. Average Willingness to Pay was found to be R67 per month, with a final total monthly negative visual impact of R104,000 to R121,000 per month for the entire Grahamstown community. Grahamstown Central (middle-high income) residents were more likely to pay than Grahamstown East (low-middle income) East residents because of socio-economic differences present in each area. A ranking exercise determined that while negative visual impacts are present, the overall benefits derived from the wind farm are potentially much higher. Additionally, positive scenic improvements were found, but were not measured due to time constraints, and would have worked to reduce the net visual impact of the Waainek Wind Farm. ¹Problem where individuals support the general concept of wind power, but when it comes to local implementation, opposition to the development arises within the same group.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2014
An empirical analysis of financial stress within South Africa and its apparent co-movement with financial stress emanating from advanced and emerging economies
- Authors: Graham, Brydone
- Date: 2013
- Subjects: Financial crises -- South Africa Financial crises -- Developing countries Globalization -- Economic aspects -- South Africa International economic relations South Africa -- Economic conditions
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1053 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1006795
- Description: The identification of financial stress, and an understanding of financial contagion on a global scale, is of critical importance to a South African economy that is becoming increasingly integrated into the global economy. The last decade has been characterised by periods of high economic growth, but also periods of significant financial instability culminating in global economic crises. This study examines the extent to which the South African financial system is exposed to distress abroad by identifying and measuring the co-movement of financial stress originating from within and outside South Africa. The study can be separated into two sections: the identification of financial stress and the measurement of financial contagion. Using monthly data for the period 2000 to 2012, three indices were constructed for the emerging markets, advanced economies and South Africa using varianceequal weighting. The indices were tested for contagion using the Johansen and Jesulius (1990) multivariate cointegration approach supplemented with basic OLS architecture and Impulse Response analysis. The results indicate the three constructed indices were highly accurate at identifying the intensity and timing of financial stress over the three regions respectively. It was found that the South African financial sector is highly susceptible to financial stress originating from advanced economies. The results obtained for financial stress emanating from emerging markets were not as conclusive and found to be insignificant. Overall, it is clear that the methods employed to identify financial stress are highly accurate and that South Africa is highly susceptible to financial stress originating from abroad. It is clear that advanced economies have a greater ability to affect financial stress in South Africa via contagion. It must be noted that this does not conclude that South Africa is not affected by emerging market crises, but that these crises tend to affect South Africa through advanced economy channels as defined within this thesis.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2013
- Authors: Graham, Brydone
- Date: 2013
- Subjects: Financial crises -- South Africa Financial crises -- Developing countries Globalization -- Economic aspects -- South Africa International economic relations South Africa -- Economic conditions
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1053 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1006795
- Description: The identification of financial stress, and an understanding of financial contagion on a global scale, is of critical importance to a South African economy that is becoming increasingly integrated into the global economy. The last decade has been characterised by periods of high economic growth, but also periods of significant financial instability culminating in global economic crises. This study examines the extent to which the South African financial system is exposed to distress abroad by identifying and measuring the co-movement of financial stress originating from within and outside South Africa. The study can be separated into two sections: the identification of financial stress and the measurement of financial contagion. Using monthly data for the period 2000 to 2012, three indices were constructed for the emerging markets, advanced economies and South Africa using varianceequal weighting. The indices were tested for contagion using the Johansen and Jesulius (1990) multivariate cointegration approach supplemented with basic OLS architecture and Impulse Response analysis. The results indicate the three constructed indices were highly accurate at identifying the intensity and timing of financial stress over the three regions respectively. It was found that the South African financial sector is highly susceptible to financial stress originating from advanced economies. The results obtained for financial stress emanating from emerging markets were not as conclusive and found to be insignificant. Overall, it is clear that the methods employed to identify financial stress are highly accurate and that South Africa is highly susceptible to financial stress originating from abroad. It is clear that advanced economies have a greater ability to affect financial stress in South Africa via contagion. It must be noted that this does not conclude that South Africa is not affected by emerging market crises, but that these crises tend to affect South Africa through advanced economy channels as defined within this thesis.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2013
Government debt levels and the systemic risks associated with post-crisis fiscal policies
- Authors: Koekemoer, Jonathan
- Date: 2013
- Subjects: Finance, Public Debts, Public -- South Africa Fiscal policy Monetary policy -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1031 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1004168
- Description: The study analyses the concepts of intergenerational equity and fiscal sustainability in South Africa. The question raised is whether or not South Africa can adopt stimulatory fiscal measures, with a simultaneous increase in debt, so as to improve long-term growth potential in a sustainable manner without creating an excessive burden on future generations. The debate surrounding the use of stimulatory fiscal policy has come to the fore once again as monetary policy has become a restricted and ineffective macroeconomic policy tool in certain countries after the world-wide financial crisis and the Euro-debt crisis. Fiscal sustainability risks and high debt levels remain a source of concern in the United States and the Euro-zone, while South Africa presently seems to be at no great risk. With South Africa’s intention to become a developmental state, the use and appropriateness of fiscal policy is considered. An overlapping-generations model is used to determine whether or not future generations will be burdened due to current stimulatory policy. The use of fiscal rules in South Africa is discussed and considered in light of various political incentives and constraints. The conclusion given is that the possible use of a procedural fiscal rule, such as the ‘golden rule’, may add credibility to the current regime, while a numerical fiscal rule is seen as unnecessary given South Africa’s responsible use of fiscal policy thus far. As it stands, there is little possibility or risk that the public debt in South Africa will become too high in the near future. Although South Africa has been affected by the crisis, the developmental nature of the economy has been sustained through the use of responsible discretionary fiscal policy, putting South Africa in a positive position to meet its long-run growth potential.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2013
- Authors: Koekemoer, Jonathan
- Date: 2013
- Subjects: Finance, Public Debts, Public -- South Africa Fiscal policy Monetary policy -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1031 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1004168
- Description: The study analyses the concepts of intergenerational equity and fiscal sustainability in South Africa. The question raised is whether or not South Africa can adopt stimulatory fiscal measures, with a simultaneous increase in debt, so as to improve long-term growth potential in a sustainable manner without creating an excessive burden on future generations. The debate surrounding the use of stimulatory fiscal policy has come to the fore once again as monetary policy has become a restricted and ineffective macroeconomic policy tool in certain countries after the world-wide financial crisis and the Euro-debt crisis. Fiscal sustainability risks and high debt levels remain a source of concern in the United States and the Euro-zone, while South Africa presently seems to be at no great risk. With South Africa’s intention to become a developmental state, the use and appropriateness of fiscal policy is considered. An overlapping-generations model is used to determine whether or not future generations will be burdened due to current stimulatory policy. The use of fiscal rules in South Africa is discussed and considered in light of various political incentives and constraints. The conclusion given is that the possible use of a procedural fiscal rule, such as the ‘golden rule’, may add credibility to the current regime, while a numerical fiscal rule is seen as unnecessary given South Africa’s responsible use of fiscal policy thus far. As it stands, there is little possibility or risk that the public debt in South Africa will become too high in the near future. Although South Africa has been affected by the crisis, the developmental nature of the economy has been sustained through the use of responsible discretionary fiscal policy, putting South Africa in a positive position to meet its long-run growth potential.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2013
International joint ventures and firm value: an empirical study of South African partner firms
- Mangwengwende, Tadiwanashe Mukudzeyi
- Authors: Mangwengwende, Tadiwanashe Mukudzeyi
- Date: 2013
- Subjects: Joint ventures Joint ventures -- South Africa Business enterprises -- Valuation International business enterprises
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Doctoral , PhD
- Identifier: vital:1033 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1004174
- Description: This study investigates international equity joint ventures (IJVs) and South African partner firm value creation at formation. In addition, it tests whether four contentious formation characteristics, namely, the geographical location of the IJV partner, the level of economic development in the IJV partner’s home country, the level of equity held by the South African firm and the industry of the South African firm, can explain when South African IJVs are value enhancing and when they are value diminishing. IJVs are a popular business mode and an important channel for infrastructure and skills investment in developing countries. However, despite their popularity and potential social benefits, these IJVs are predominantly created by the decisions of private firms to collaborate with foreign firms and governments. Consequently the preservation and development of the IJV investment channel is dependent on the encouragement of private firm IJV participation. It is at uncovering potential tools to encourage IJV participation by South African firms that IJV firm value creation becomes important because it stands as a motivator for South African firms’ involvement in IJVs. Existing literature on IJVs and partner firm value has presented conflicting evidence with support for the views that they are value enhancing, value diminishing or of no immediate consequence to their partners’ firm value. Consequently, previous research offers limited firm value support for IJVs. For South African firms considering joint ventures and national policy makers determined to promote IJVs there is a need for an investigation of South African partner IJV firm value effects. Moreover, it is also necessary to test potential explanatory variables that may help to explain when the IJVs are value enhancing and when they are not as this will inform IJV contract negotiations and how limited national government resources are used to promote IJVs. In order to assess firm value creation for South African firms this study performed event studies on IJV formation announcements from 1998 to 2011 using daily share returns from the Johannesburg Securities Exchange taking care to incorporate recent developments in the event study methodology. The study found that while the market responds to IJV announcements, its responses do not, on average, reflect that IJVs are firm value enhancing for their South African partners at formation. This stands in contrast to considerable empirical literature and IJV firm value creation theory. In addition, factoring in formation characteristics, argued to potentially help explain cases of value creation and destruction from IJVs, provided limited explanation for positive and negative wealth effectsfor South African firms entering IJVs. This result has important value for IJV participants, national economic policy makers and IJV researchers. For IJV participants and national policy makers, the results caution unfettered entry/support for IJVs and challenge the role of equity distribution in determining the value of the IJV to its partner firms. For IJV researchers, the results present new evidence questioning IJV firm value creation at formation and provide a potential explanation for the conflict in previous IJV research. The study makes four key contributions to the existing knowledge of IJV firm value creation. Firstly, it assesses IJV wealth effects for the hitherto untested South African IJVs. Secondly, in doing so it adds a new data set (South African IJVs) to the current IJV literature. Thirdly, in reviewing the literature on IJV firm value creation the study presents a disaggregated model of IJV firm value creation from which to develop IJV research and potentially solve the persistent conflict in empirical results on IJV partner wealth effects. Finally, it informs future South African IJV agreements by uncovering factors that influence and do not influence partner wealth effects for South African firms.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2013
- Authors: Mangwengwende, Tadiwanashe Mukudzeyi
- Date: 2013
- Subjects: Joint ventures Joint ventures -- South Africa Business enterprises -- Valuation International business enterprises
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Doctoral , PhD
- Identifier: vital:1033 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1004174
- Description: This study investigates international equity joint ventures (IJVs) and South African partner firm value creation at formation. In addition, it tests whether four contentious formation characteristics, namely, the geographical location of the IJV partner, the level of economic development in the IJV partner’s home country, the level of equity held by the South African firm and the industry of the South African firm, can explain when South African IJVs are value enhancing and when they are value diminishing. IJVs are a popular business mode and an important channel for infrastructure and skills investment in developing countries. However, despite their popularity and potential social benefits, these IJVs are predominantly created by the decisions of private firms to collaborate with foreign firms and governments. Consequently the preservation and development of the IJV investment channel is dependent on the encouragement of private firm IJV participation. It is at uncovering potential tools to encourage IJV participation by South African firms that IJV firm value creation becomes important because it stands as a motivator for South African firms’ involvement in IJVs. Existing literature on IJVs and partner firm value has presented conflicting evidence with support for the views that they are value enhancing, value diminishing or of no immediate consequence to their partners’ firm value. Consequently, previous research offers limited firm value support for IJVs. For South African firms considering joint ventures and national policy makers determined to promote IJVs there is a need for an investigation of South African partner IJV firm value effects. Moreover, it is also necessary to test potential explanatory variables that may help to explain when the IJVs are value enhancing and when they are not as this will inform IJV contract negotiations and how limited national government resources are used to promote IJVs. In order to assess firm value creation for South African firms this study performed event studies on IJV formation announcements from 1998 to 2011 using daily share returns from the Johannesburg Securities Exchange taking care to incorporate recent developments in the event study methodology. The study found that while the market responds to IJV announcements, its responses do not, on average, reflect that IJVs are firm value enhancing for their South African partners at formation. This stands in contrast to considerable empirical literature and IJV firm value creation theory. In addition, factoring in formation characteristics, argued to potentially help explain cases of value creation and destruction from IJVs, provided limited explanation for positive and negative wealth effectsfor South African firms entering IJVs. This result has important value for IJV participants, national economic policy makers and IJV researchers. For IJV participants and national policy makers, the results caution unfettered entry/support for IJVs and challenge the role of equity distribution in determining the value of the IJV to its partner firms. For IJV researchers, the results present new evidence questioning IJV firm value creation at formation and provide a potential explanation for the conflict in previous IJV research. The study makes four key contributions to the existing knowledge of IJV firm value creation. Firstly, it assesses IJV wealth effects for the hitherto untested South African IJVs. Secondly, in doing so it adds a new data set (South African IJVs) to the current IJV literature. Thirdly, in reviewing the literature on IJV firm value creation the study presents a disaggregated model of IJV firm value creation from which to develop IJV research and potentially solve the persistent conflict in empirical results on IJV partner wealth effects. Finally, it informs future South African IJV agreements by uncovering factors that influence and do not influence partner wealth effects for South African firms.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2013
The power of investor sentiment: an analysis of the impact of investor confidence on South African financial markets
- Authors: Argyros, Robert
- Date: 2013
- Subjects: Johannesburg Stock Exchange Stockholders Stocks -- Prices -- South Africa Stock Exchanges Investments
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1032 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1004169
- Description: Whether investor sentiment has any authority over financial markets has long been a topic of discussion in the field of finance. This study investigates the relationship between investor sentiment and share returns in South Africa. Determining this relationship will add to the existing work which has documented important determinants of share returns on the stock exchange in South Africa, as well adding to the inconclusive link between sentiment and the South African financial markets. Does sentiment influence share returns or do share returns influence sentiment? Using quarterly data for the period 1996-2010, the study makes use of the FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index as a proxy for investor sentiment, and the FTSE/JSE All Share Index to represent the South African financial markets. A regression analysis was conducted along with granger-causality tests, impulse response functions and variance decompositions in order to determine the nature of this relationship. The results showed that investor sentiment has a statistically significant relationship with share returns in South Africa. However, sentiment is only able to account for a very small portion of the variation in returns, with returns able to account for a larger portion of the variation in sentiment. Therefore investor sentiment is not a suitable predictor of share returns in South Africa. In addition, granger-causality tests indicate that returns are actually the leading indicator, suggesting that changes in South African investors’ confidence levels occur following changes in the state of the JSE. The limitations of the study include the infrequent nature of the sentiment measure used, thereby failing to capture important changes in sentiment and their immediate impact on financial markets. In addition, the sentiment of foreign investors must be taken into account due to the large foreign investment in the JSE.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2013
- Authors: Argyros, Robert
- Date: 2013
- Subjects: Johannesburg Stock Exchange Stockholders Stocks -- Prices -- South Africa Stock Exchanges Investments
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1032 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1004169
- Description: Whether investor sentiment has any authority over financial markets has long been a topic of discussion in the field of finance. This study investigates the relationship between investor sentiment and share returns in South Africa. Determining this relationship will add to the existing work which has documented important determinants of share returns on the stock exchange in South Africa, as well adding to the inconclusive link between sentiment and the South African financial markets. Does sentiment influence share returns or do share returns influence sentiment? Using quarterly data for the period 1996-2010, the study makes use of the FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index as a proxy for investor sentiment, and the FTSE/JSE All Share Index to represent the South African financial markets. A regression analysis was conducted along with granger-causality tests, impulse response functions and variance decompositions in order to determine the nature of this relationship. The results showed that investor sentiment has a statistically significant relationship with share returns in South Africa. However, sentiment is only able to account for a very small portion of the variation in returns, with returns able to account for a larger portion of the variation in sentiment. Therefore investor sentiment is not a suitable predictor of share returns in South Africa. In addition, granger-causality tests indicate that returns are actually the leading indicator, suggesting that changes in South African investors’ confidence levels occur following changes in the state of the JSE. The limitations of the study include the infrequent nature of the sentiment measure used, thereby failing to capture important changes in sentiment and their immediate impact on financial markets. In addition, the sentiment of foreign investors must be taken into account due to the large foreign investment in the JSE.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2013
A critical analysis of the socioeconomic impact assessments of the Addo Elephant National Park
- Authors: Rose, Matthew Calvin
- Date: 2011
- Subjects: Addo Elephant National Park (South Africa) South African National Parks Economic impact analysis -- South Africa -- Addo Elephant National Park Environmental impact analysis -- South Africa -- Addo Elephant National Park
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:964 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002698
- Description: Impact assessment is a requirement for development in many countries across the globe, seeking to inform the decision-maker as to the environmental, social and economic impact of an ongoing or proposed project. Socioeconomic impact assessment (SEIA) is a means of informing decision-makers as to the socioeconomic effects a project could have, or is having, thus contributing to informing adaptive management practices. However, the tendency of socioeconomic impact assessment to highly quantitative economic methods of analysis raises the question of whether the desired results are achieved by the process. The purpose of the research was to determine whether highly quantitative forms of economic analysis are suitable for measurement of impacts in a social context where distributive as well as net impact is important; to critically analyze the method utilized in achieving highly quantitative economic impact assessment results; and lastly to draw conclusions and make recommendations regarding the efficacy of monitoring processes used to inform adaptive management practices. The research was conducted by means of a case study focusing on three SEIAs carried out on the same entity, namely the Addo Elephant National Park. Managed by South African National Parks (SANP), it began expanding its borders in the early 2000s. Funded by the World Bank, SANP was required to carry out a comprehensive Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) in 2003 to ensure the expansion did not have negative environmental, social and economic repercussions, and where such consequences were unavoidable, to ensure that mitigation and management thereof was informed by useful monitoring exercises. Given the need for resettlement and issues of economic distributive concern raised in the 2003 SEA, the three socioeconomic impact assessments conducted from 2005 – 2010 as part of the ongoing monitoring exercises formed an ideal framework for answering the primary research questions. The findings indicate that despite consistent terms of reference, different assessors interpret mandates from the commissioning body in different ways, leading to varied applications of the same theory, some methodologically better than others. Economic multiplier analysis was found to be inadequate as a measure of the distributive effects of economic impact. Moreover, a lack of consistency, accountability and transparency in the monitoring process led to three sets of results that were incomparable over time and thus inadequate as a means to inform adaptive management practices. Asymmetries of and between power and expertise in the commissioning body and the assessors led to breakdowns of the assessment process in terms of accountability and integrity and resulted in a failure to properly define the scope of the study and measure the relevant indicators. The following recommendations were made: that the economic multiplier method be complemented by additional methods of analysis when utilized in disparate social contexts where distribution of economic benefit is important; that monitoring practices be systematized at an early stage of the process to ensure comparable results useful in informing ongoing management practices; and that what an assessment measures and how it measures it be clarified with reference to an objective source. Finally, the number of factors for consideration in any impact assessment means that measurement of the full picture suffers resource constraints, emphasizing the need for impact assessment oversight to recognize the deficiencies of the process whilst still acknowledging that ‘some number is better than no number’.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2011
- Authors: Rose, Matthew Calvin
- Date: 2011
- Subjects: Addo Elephant National Park (South Africa) South African National Parks Economic impact analysis -- South Africa -- Addo Elephant National Park Environmental impact analysis -- South Africa -- Addo Elephant National Park
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:964 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002698
- Description: Impact assessment is a requirement for development in many countries across the globe, seeking to inform the decision-maker as to the environmental, social and economic impact of an ongoing or proposed project. Socioeconomic impact assessment (SEIA) is a means of informing decision-makers as to the socioeconomic effects a project could have, or is having, thus contributing to informing adaptive management practices. However, the tendency of socioeconomic impact assessment to highly quantitative economic methods of analysis raises the question of whether the desired results are achieved by the process. The purpose of the research was to determine whether highly quantitative forms of economic analysis are suitable for measurement of impacts in a social context where distributive as well as net impact is important; to critically analyze the method utilized in achieving highly quantitative economic impact assessment results; and lastly to draw conclusions and make recommendations regarding the efficacy of monitoring processes used to inform adaptive management practices. The research was conducted by means of a case study focusing on three SEIAs carried out on the same entity, namely the Addo Elephant National Park. Managed by South African National Parks (SANP), it began expanding its borders in the early 2000s. Funded by the World Bank, SANP was required to carry out a comprehensive Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) in 2003 to ensure the expansion did not have negative environmental, social and economic repercussions, and where such consequences were unavoidable, to ensure that mitigation and management thereof was informed by useful monitoring exercises. Given the need for resettlement and issues of economic distributive concern raised in the 2003 SEA, the three socioeconomic impact assessments conducted from 2005 – 2010 as part of the ongoing monitoring exercises formed an ideal framework for answering the primary research questions. The findings indicate that despite consistent terms of reference, different assessors interpret mandates from the commissioning body in different ways, leading to varied applications of the same theory, some methodologically better than others. Economic multiplier analysis was found to be inadequate as a measure of the distributive effects of economic impact. Moreover, a lack of consistency, accountability and transparency in the monitoring process led to three sets of results that were incomparable over time and thus inadequate as a means to inform adaptive management practices. Asymmetries of and between power and expertise in the commissioning body and the assessors led to breakdowns of the assessment process in terms of accountability and integrity and resulted in a failure to properly define the scope of the study and measure the relevant indicators. The following recommendations were made: that the economic multiplier method be complemented by additional methods of analysis when utilized in disparate social contexts where distribution of economic benefit is important; that monitoring practices be systematized at an early stage of the process to ensure comparable results useful in informing ongoing management practices; and that what an assessment measures and how it measures it be clarified with reference to an objective source. Finally, the number of factors for consideration in any impact assessment means that measurement of the full picture suffers resource constraints, emphasizing the need for impact assessment oversight to recognize the deficiencies of the process whilst still acknowledging that ‘some number is better than no number’.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2011
A regulationist approach to South Africa and a critique of inflation targeting
- Authors: Bax, Ryan Michael Jonathan
- Date: 2011
- Subjects: Inflation (Finance) -- South Africa International finance Economic development -- South Africa Sustainable development -- South Africa Inflation targeting -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1036 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1004533
- Description: Since the 1970s, the international economic system has become prone to the volatility and undue effects associated with booms and busts. This forty year period spanning the present has exhibited restrained growth and repressive economic development. Critical changes to the system are presented by the transition from "Fordism" to the post 1970s neoliberal regime and the globalization of world markets. Underpinning this transformation is an ideological shift towards free market capitalism and the adoption of "reduced form" market models. These "reduced form" models appear to hinder economic sustainability as their grounding in economics fails to account for real economic activity. This thesis aims to provide a more holistic perception of sustainability, one that provides a sound basis on which to develop sustainable economic policy. The Regulationist Approach presents the requisite understanding of economic sustainability required within this research. The inclusion of economic, historical and socio-political fields of research proposes a wider understanding of the political economy and sustainability. The application of the Regulation Approach to the South African economy illustrates many problem areas that require attention. The examination found that firstly, aggregate demand in the South African economy was unsustainable due to the debt driven nature of demand under the asset price bubble of the mid to late 2000s. Secondly, aggregate supply also proved unsustainable as government is failing to provide any substantive growth within important sectors of the economy such as education and the provision of general services. Furthermore, the adoption of inflation targeting in South Africa poses a barrier to sustained economic growth as it focuses singularly on price inflation. The "reduced form" model of inflation targeting fails to account for market failures and a number of vital indicators of sustainability most notably, debt levels and asset prices. The inclusion of these indicators, and financial stability more generally, are found to provide a more holistic and sustainable approach to macroeconomic policymaking.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2011
- Authors: Bax, Ryan Michael Jonathan
- Date: 2011
- Subjects: Inflation (Finance) -- South Africa International finance Economic development -- South Africa Sustainable development -- South Africa Inflation targeting -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1036 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1004533
- Description: Since the 1970s, the international economic system has become prone to the volatility and undue effects associated with booms and busts. This forty year period spanning the present has exhibited restrained growth and repressive economic development. Critical changes to the system are presented by the transition from "Fordism" to the post 1970s neoliberal regime and the globalization of world markets. Underpinning this transformation is an ideological shift towards free market capitalism and the adoption of "reduced form" market models. These "reduced form" models appear to hinder economic sustainability as their grounding in economics fails to account for real economic activity. This thesis aims to provide a more holistic perception of sustainability, one that provides a sound basis on which to develop sustainable economic policy. The Regulationist Approach presents the requisite understanding of economic sustainability required within this research. The inclusion of economic, historical and socio-political fields of research proposes a wider understanding of the political economy and sustainability. The application of the Regulation Approach to the South African economy illustrates many problem areas that require attention. The examination found that firstly, aggregate demand in the South African economy was unsustainable due to the debt driven nature of demand under the asset price bubble of the mid to late 2000s. Secondly, aggregate supply also proved unsustainable as government is failing to provide any substantive growth within important sectors of the economy such as education and the provision of general services. Furthermore, the adoption of inflation targeting in South Africa poses a barrier to sustained economic growth as it focuses singularly on price inflation. The "reduced form" model of inflation targeting fails to account for market failures and a number of vital indicators of sustainability most notably, debt levels and asset prices. The inclusion of these indicators, and financial stability more generally, are found to provide a more holistic and sustainable approach to macroeconomic policymaking.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2011
Monetary policy transmission in South Africa: a comparative analysis of credit and exchange rate channels
- Authors: Sebitso, Nathaniel Maemu
- Date: 2011
- Subjects: Monetary policy -- South Africa , Foreign exchange market -- South Africa , Financial crises -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic conditions , South Africa -- Economic policy , Banks and banking -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1129 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1020851
- Description: This thesis focuses on monetary policy transmission and particularly seeks to examine the impact of credit and exchange rate channels of monetary policy transmission in the South African economy. South Africa's monetary policy has gone through several changes over the past thirty years. In this respect, there is a need for robust empirical evidence on the effects of these channels on inflation and output. The thesis employs a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model to identify monetary transmission in South Africa for the period 1994:q4 - 2008:q2. The form of the SVAR used in this thesis is based on the fact that South Africa is a small open economy, which means that external shocks are an important driver of domestic activity. The impulse responses and variance decomposition results show that the repo rate, credit and exchange rate play a role in terms of their impact on inflation and output. The dynamic responses to the identified monetary policy shock are consistent with standard theory and highlight the importance of the interest rate channel. A shock to the interest rate, increasing it by one standard deviation, results in a persistent fall in credit. The response of output is immediate as it falls and bottoms out within the second year. Inflation shows a lagged response, it is positive within the first year as the exchange rate depreciates but in subsequent quarters inflation responds negatively as expected. Inflation falls and reaches a minimum by approximately eight quarters then moves towards baseline. The exchange rate shows delayed appreciation. The shock to the repo interest rate leads to an immediate depreciation of the exchange rate in the first two quarters as output declines, followed by an appreciation in the third and sixth quarter. Due to larger error bounds the impact of the repo rate on the exchange rate could be less effective within the first two years. The impulse responses suggest that monetary policy plays an effective role in stabilising the economy in response to a credit shock, notwithstanding large standard error bounds. Hence, the monetary authority reacts by increasing the repo rate as a result of inflation. The impact of credit on output is positive but is offset to some extent by the rising repo rate. In response to the rand appreciation, the monetary authority reduces the repo rate significantly during the first year with the maximum impact in the second year and then returns to baseline thereafter. Therefore the monetary authority reduces the repo rate, probably to stabilise falling inflation. The result shows that inflation falls as a result of the rand appreciation. A shock to the exchange rate causes a rise in output, though small in magnitude, which is persistent but reaches baseline at the end of the period. This result could reflect the effects of the resultant fall in the repo rate and a persistent rise in credit over the whole period, which tends to increase output. The exchange rate shows an obvious and stronger immediate impact on inflation compared to credit impact on inflation. However, the credit shock has an obvious and stronger impact on output compared to an exchange rate impact on output. However, the large standard error bounds may imply that credit and exchange rate channels are not as effective in the short run. It is important to note that the results are based on the SVAR model estimated with percentage growth rate of the variables. The variance decomposition result is in line with the impulse responses and shows that the exchange rate and credit channels could be important transmission channels in South Africa over the chosen sample period. The exchange rate and credit shocks show a stronger effect on inflation than on output, looking at both the impulse responses and variance decomposition results. The reaction of the repo interest rate to the credit and exchange rate shocks comes out as expected. The repo rate increases as a result of an increase in the credit and falls as a result of the currency appreciation.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2011
- Authors: Sebitso, Nathaniel Maemu
- Date: 2011
- Subjects: Monetary policy -- South Africa , Foreign exchange market -- South Africa , Financial crises -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic conditions , South Africa -- Economic policy , Banks and banking -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1129 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1020851
- Description: This thesis focuses on monetary policy transmission and particularly seeks to examine the impact of credit and exchange rate channels of monetary policy transmission in the South African economy. South Africa's monetary policy has gone through several changes over the past thirty years. In this respect, there is a need for robust empirical evidence on the effects of these channels on inflation and output. The thesis employs a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model to identify monetary transmission in South Africa for the period 1994:q4 - 2008:q2. The form of the SVAR used in this thesis is based on the fact that South Africa is a small open economy, which means that external shocks are an important driver of domestic activity. The impulse responses and variance decomposition results show that the repo rate, credit and exchange rate play a role in terms of their impact on inflation and output. The dynamic responses to the identified monetary policy shock are consistent with standard theory and highlight the importance of the interest rate channel. A shock to the interest rate, increasing it by one standard deviation, results in a persistent fall in credit. The response of output is immediate as it falls and bottoms out within the second year. Inflation shows a lagged response, it is positive within the first year as the exchange rate depreciates but in subsequent quarters inflation responds negatively as expected. Inflation falls and reaches a minimum by approximately eight quarters then moves towards baseline. The exchange rate shows delayed appreciation. The shock to the repo interest rate leads to an immediate depreciation of the exchange rate in the first two quarters as output declines, followed by an appreciation in the third and sixth quarter. Due to larger error bounds the impact of the repo rate on the exchange rate could be less effective within the first two years. The impulse responses suggest that monetary policy plays an effective role in stabilising the economy in response to a credit shock, notwithstanding large standard error bounds. Hence, the monetary authority reacts by increasing the repo rate as a result of inflation. The impact of credit on output is positive but is offset to some extent by the rising repo rate. In response to the rand appreciation, the monetary authority reduces the repo rate significantly during the first year with the maximum impact in the second year and then returns to baseline thereafter. Therefore the monetary authority reduces the repo rate, probably to stabilise falling inflation. The result shows that inflation falls as a result of the rand appreciation. A shock to the exchange rate causes a rise in output, though small in magnitude, which is persistent but reaches baseline at the end of the period. This result could reflect the effects of the resultant fall in the repo rate and a persistent rise in credit over the whole period, which tends to increase output. The exchange rate shows an obvious and stronger immediate impact on inflation compared to credit impact on inflation. However, the credit shock has an obvious and stronger impact on output compared to an exchange rate impact on output. However, the large standard error bounds may imply that credit and exchange rate channels are not as effective in the short run. It is important to note that the results are based on the SVAR model estimated with percentage growth rate of the variables. The variance decomposition result is in line with the impulse responses and shows that the exchange rate and credit channels could be important transmission channels in South Africa over the chosen sample period. The exchange rate and credit shocks show a stronger effect on inflation than on output, looking at both the impulse responses and variance decomposition results. The reaction of the repo interest rate to the credit and exchange rate shocks comes out as expected. The repo rate increases as a result of an increase in the credit and falls as a result of the currency appreciation.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2011
South African money market volatility, asymmetry and retail interest pass-through
- Authors: Fadiran, Gideon Oluwatobi
- Date: 2011
- Subjects: Money market -- South Africa Interest rates -- South Africa Monetary policy -- South Africa Econometric models Banks and banking -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:993 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002728
- Description: The purpose of this paper is to examine the interest rate transmission mechanism for South Africa as an emerging economy in a pre-repo and repo system. It explains how the money market rate is transmitted to the retail interest rates both in the long-run and short-run and tests the symmetric and asymmetric interest rate pass-through using the Scholnick (1996) ECM and the Wang and Lee (2009) ECM-EGARCH (1, 1)-M methodology. This permitted the examination of the impact of interest rate volatility, along with the leverage effect. An incomplete pass-through is found in the short-run. From the entire sample period, a symmetric adjustment is found in the deposit rate, which had upward rigidity adjustment, while an asymmetric adjustment is found in the lending rate, with a downward rigidity adjustment. All the adjustments supported the collusive pricing arrangements. According to the conditional variance estimation of the ECM-EGARCH (1, 1), negative volatility impact and leverage effect are present and influential only in the deposit interest rate adjustment process in South Africa.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2011
- Authors: Fadiran, Gideon Oluwatobi
- Date: 2011
- Subjects: Money market -- South Africa Interest rates -- South Africa Monetary policy -- South Africa Econometric models Banks and banking -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:993 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002728
- Description: The purpose of this paper is to examine the interest rate transmission mechanism for South Africa as an emerging economy in a pre-repo and repo system. It explains how the money market rate is transmitted to the retail interest rates both in the long-run and short-run and tests the symmetric and asymmetric interest rate pass-through using the Scholnick (1996) ECM and the Wang and Lee (2009) ECM-EGARCH (1, 1)-M methodology. This permitted the examination of the impact of interest rate volatility, along with the leverage effect. An incomplete pass-through is found in the short-run. From the entire sample period, a symmetric adjustment is found in the deposit rate, which had upward rigidity adjustment, while an asymmetric adjustment is found in the lending rate, with a downward rigidity adjustment. All the adjustments supported the collusive pricing arrangements. According to the conditional variance estimation of the ECM-EGARCH (1, 1), negative volatility impact and leverage effect are present and influential only in the deposit interest rate adjustment process in South Africa.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2011
The relationship between financial development and manufacturing sector growth: evidence from Southern African Customs Union countries
- Authors: Moshabesha, Mosili
- Date: 2011
- Subjects: Economic development -- Case studies -- Africa, Southern Entrepreneurship -- Case studies -- Africa, Southern Southern African Customs Union
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:990 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002725
- Description: Extensive research has been done on the relationship between financial development (FD) and growth (with the main focus on economic growth). Theoretical models and most of the conclusions reached stipulate that the development of a financial system is one of the essential ingredients for economic growth. A developed financial system is able to provide financial services efficiently to the real sector. This study examines the relationship between FD and manufacturing sector growth of the SACU countries. The study first reviews the theoretical and empirical literature of FD and growth (economic and manufacturing sector). This gives a full understanding of the topic before attempting to empirically study it. It also helps in the selection process of the model and variables to be employed in the study. A balanced panel for four SACU countries, namely Botswana, Lesotho, RSA and Swaziland, for the period 1976 to 2008 was estimated using Zellner‟s Seemingly Unrelated Regression Estimation (SURE) method. Namibia was omitted because of limited data. The SURE model was selected because it performs better than ordinary least squares (OLS) estimation of individual equations in cases where the countries studied can be affected by similar external shocks because they are in the same economic region and also have country specific structural differences which could affect their economic growth. Two measures of FD were used: credit to the private sector provided by commercial banks (FIC) and the ratio of liquid liabilities of commercial banks to GDP (LL). Manufacturing sector growth was measured by manufacturing value added to GDP. The results of the relationship between manufacturing growth and FD were very weak across the countries. The model that used FIC performed better, there was a negative significant relationship found in RSA and Swaziland, while with the model that used LL, all the countries gave an insignificant relationship. The results for Swaziland were very consistent with the past findings of the relationship between FD and economic growth in the country (for example Aziakpono (2005a)). This may be because of the high share of the manufacturing sector in GDP. Theory suggests that a well-developed financial system will have a positive impact on growth, but this was not the case in RSA and Botswana, where in some cases FD had a negative impact on the growth of the sector. The analysis of the countries‟ manufacturing sector development shows that the sector plays an important role in the economies of the SACU countries, especially in terms of employment and exports. The coefficients of trade openness are generally positive, though not significant in some cases. The other control variables gave mixed results across the counties and across the models. Based on the findings, the countries have to develop strategies that will improve entrepreneurial skills. Also the financial development in the small SACU countries is essential in order for all the sectors in the economy to benefit from the financial sector and in turn increase economic growth.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2011
- Authors: Moshabesha, Mosili
- Date: 2011
- Subjects: Economic development -- Case studies -- Africa, Southern Entrepreneurship -- Case studies -- Africa, Southern Southern African Customs Union
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:990 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002725
- Description: Extensive research has been done on the relationship between financial development (FD) and growth (with the main focus on economic growth). Theoretical models and most of the conclusions reached stipulate that the development of a financial system is one of the essential ingredients for economic growth. A developed financial system is able to provide financial services efficiently to the real sector. This study examines the relationship between FD and manufacturing sector growth of the SACU countries. The study first reviews the theoretical and empirical literature of FD and growth (economic and manufacturing sector). This gives a full understanding of the topic before attempting to empirically study it. It also helps in the selection process of the model and variables to be employed in the study. A balanced panel for four SACU countries, namely Botswana, Lesotho, RSA and Swaziland, for the period 1976 to 2008 was estimated using Zellner‟s Seemingly Unrelated Regression Estimation (SURE) method. Namibia was omitted because of limited data. The SURE model was selected because it performs better than ordinary least squares (OLS) estimation of individual equations in cases where the countries studied can be affected by similar external shocks because they are in the same economic region and also have country specific structural differences which could affect their economic growth. Two measures of FD were used: credit to the private sector provided by commercial banks (FIC) and the ratio of liquid liabilities of commercial banks to GDP (LL). Manufacturing sector growth was measured by manufacturing value added to GDP. The results of the relationship between manufacturing growth and FD were very weak across the countries. The model that used FIC performed better, there was a negative significant relationship found in RSA and Swaziland, while with the model that used LL, all the countries gave an insignificant relationship. The results for Swaziland were very consistent with the past findings of the relationship between FD and economic growth in the country (for example Aziakpono (2005a)). This may be because of the high share of the manufacturing sector in GDP. Theory suggests that a well-developed financial system will have a positive impact on growth, but this was not the case in RSA and Botswana, where in some cases FD had a negative impact on the growth of the sector. The analysis of the countries‟ manufacturing sector development shows that the sector plays an important role in the economies of the SACU countries, especially in terms of employment and exports. The coefficients of trade openness are generally positive, though not significant in some cases. The other control variables gave mixed results across the counties and across the models. Based on the findings, the countries have to develop strategies that will improve entrepreneurial skills. Also the financial development in the small SACU countries is essential in order for all the sectors in the economy to benefit from the financial sector and in turn increase economic growth.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2011
The relationship between bank concentration and the interest rate pass through in selected African countries
- Mangwengwende, Tadiwanashe Mukudzeyi
- Authors: Mangwengwende, Tadiwanashe Mukudzeyi
- Date: 2010
- Subjects: Interest rates -- Effect of inflation on -- Africa , Monetary policy -- Africa , Prime rate , Prime rate -- Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:942 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002675
- Description: Given the importance of monetary policy in the operation of a successful modern economy and the use of official interest rates as tools in its implementation, this study investigates the implications of changing bank concentration on the operation of the Interest Rate Pass Through (IRPT) of official rates to bank lending and deposit rates. This is an issue made more poignant by growing mergers, acquisitions and bank consolidation exercises around the world that have brought interest to their implications for economic performance. However, with contention high in the industrial organisation theory on the likely relationship between bank concentration and the IRPT, and the outcomes of empirical investigations producing conflicting evidence, the desire to investigate the issue in the African context necessitated a thorough empirical investigation of four African countries (South Africa, Botswana, Nigeria and Zambia). This study not only extended the investigation of the issue to the African context, but it merged different IRPT measurement techniques that had not been jointly applied to this particular issue, namely; Symmetric and Asymmetric Error Correction Models, Mean Adjustment Lags, Ordinary Least Squares estimations and Autoregressive Distributed Lag models. These measures of the IRPT were compared with three firm concentration ratios on two different levels of analysis, one, over the entire period and, another, through eight year rolling windows. The results reveal that bank concentration can sometimes be related to the speed and magnitude of the IRPT but that these relationships are not consistent amongst the countries, over the entire sample period or across the two levels of analysis, suggesting reasons why empirical results have arrived at contrasting conclusions. The results revealed more evidence of a relationship between bank concentration and the magnitude of the IRPT than between bank concentration and the speed of the IRPT. Furthermore, where relationships were identified there was evidence supporting both the structure conduct performance hypothesis and the competing efficient market hypothesis as the true representation of the relationship between bank concentration and the IRPT. The key implication of the result for African countries is that increased bank concentration through bank consolidation programmes should not be automatically regarded as detrimental to the effective implementation of monetary policy through the IRPT. Consequently,banking sector regulation need not stifle bank consolidation and growth to preserve monetary policy effectiveness. Rather, since the relationship cannot be neatly represented by a single theory or hypothesis each country must determine its own interaction between bank concentration and its IRPT before policies regarding the banking sector concentration and effective monetary policy, through the use of official interest rates, are determined.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2010
- Authors: Mangwengwende, Tadiwanashe Mukudzeyi
- Date: 2010
- Subjects: Interest rates -- Effect of inflation on -- Africa , Monetary policy -- Africa , Prime rate , Prime rate -- Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:942 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002675
- Description: Given the importance of monetary policy in the operation of a successful modern economy and the use of official interest rates as tools in its implementation, this study investigates the implications of changing bank concentration on the operation of the Interest Rate Pass Through (IRPT) of official rates to bank lending and deposit rates. This is an issue made more poignant by growing mergers, acquisitions and bank consolidation exercises around the world that have brought interest to their implications for economic performance. However, with contention high in the industrial organisation theory on the likely relationship between bank concentration and the IRPT, and the outcomes of empirical investigations producing conflicting evidence, the desire to investigate the issue in the African context necessitated a thorough empirical investigation of four African countries (South Africa, Botswana, Nigeria and Zambia). This study not only extended the investigation of the issue to the African context, but it merged different IRPT measurement techniques that had not been jointly applied to this particular issue, namely; Symmetric and Asymmetric Error Correction Models, Mean Adjustment Lags, Ordinary Least Squares estimations and Autoregressive Distributed Lag models. These measures of the IRPT were compared with three firm concentration ratios on two different levels of analysis, one, over the entire period and, another, through eight year rolling windows. The results reveal that bank concentration can sometimes be related to the speed and magnitude of the IRPT but that these relationships are not consistent amongst the countries, over the entire sample period or across the two levels of analysis, suggesting reasons why empirical results have arrived at contrasting conclusions. The results revealed more evidence of a relationship between bank concentration and the magnitude of the IRPT than between bank concentration and the speed of the IRPT. Furthermore, where relationships were identified there was evidence supporting both the structure conduct performance hypothesis and the competing efficient market hypothesis as the true representation of the relationship between bank concentration and the IRPT. The key implication of the result for African countries is that increased bank concentration through bank consolidation programmes should not be automatically regarded as detrimental to the effective implementation of monetary policy through the IRPT. Consequently,banking sector regulation need not stifle bank consolidation and growth to preserve monetary policy effectiveness. Rather, since the relationship cannot be neatly represented by a single theory or hypothesis each country must determine its own interaction between bank concentration and its IRPT before policies regarding the banking sector concentration and effective monetary policy, through the use of official interest rates, are determined.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2010
Volatility and the risk return relationship on the South African equity market
- Authors: Mandimika, Neville
- Date: 2010
- Subjects: Stock exchanges , Financial risk -- South Africa , Saving and investment -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1009 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002744 , Stock exchanges , Financial risk -- South Africa , Saving and investment -- South Africa
- Description: The volatility of stock markets has important implications for investment decision making, financial stability and overall macroeconomic stability. This study examines the risk-return relationship as well as the behaviour of volatility of the South African equity markets using both aggregate, industrial level and sector level data. The study is divided into three parts. The first part investigates the behaviour of volatility in each of the industries, sectors and the benchmark series focussing on whether volatility is symmetric or asymmetric. Subsequently we investigate which, among the GARCH family of models appropriately captured the riskreturn relationship under which distributional assumption. The second part examines the riskreturn relationship on the SA stock market. The third part examines the long term trend of volatility and whether volatility significantly increases during financial crises and during major global shocks. The GARCH-M, EGARCH-M and TARCH-M models under the Gaussian, Student –t and the GED are used. The findings this study makes are as follows: firstly, there is no clear relationship between risk and return. Secondly, volatility is asymmetrical, implying that bad news has a greater effect on volatility than good news in the South African equity market. Thirdly, the TARCH-M model under the GED was found to be the most appropriate model. Fourthly, volatility increases during financial crises and major global shocks. Overall, volatility is generally not priced on the South African equity markets. Thus, both local and international investors need to consider other factors that influence returns such as skewness. The general increase in volatility during financial crises and major global shocks poses a major concern for policy makers as this may cause financial instability. Thus policy makers need to be mindful of the behaviour of volatility in the South African equity market in response to external shocks.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2010
- Authors: Mandimika, Neville
- Date: 2010
- Subjects: Stock exchanges , Financial risk -- South Africa , Saving and investment -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1009 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002744 , Stock exchanges , Financial risk -- South Africa , Saving and investment -- South Africa
- Description: The volatility of stock markets has important implications for investment decision making, financial stability and overall macroeconomic stability. This study examines the risk-return relationship as well as the behaviour of volatility of the South African equity markets using both aggregate, industrial level and sector level data. The study is divided into three parts. The first part investigates the behaviour of volatility in each of the industries, sectors and the benchmark series focussing on whether volatility is symmetric or asymmetric. Subsequently we investigate which, among the GARCH family of models appropriately captured the riskreturn relationship under which distributional assumption. The second part examines the riskreturn relationship on the SA stock market. The third part examines the long term trend of volatility and whether volatility significantly increases during financial crises and during major global shocks. The GARCH-M, EGARCH-M and TARCH-M models under the Gaussian, Student –t and the GED are used. The findings this study makes are as follows: firstly, there is no clear relationship between risk and return. Secondly, volatility is asymmetrical, implying that bad news has a greater effect on volatility than good news in the South African equity market. Thirdly, the TARCH-M model under the GED was found to be the most appropriate model. Fourthly, volatility increases during financial crises and major global shocks. Overall, volatility is generally not priced on the South African equity markets. Thus, both local and international investors need to consider other factors that influence returns such as skewness. The general increase in volatility during financial crises and major global shocks poses a major concern for policy makers as this may cause financial instability. Thus policy makers need to be mindful of the behaviour of volatility in the South African equity market in response to external shocks.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2010
A comparative analysis of the divisia index and the simple sum monetary aggregates for South Africa
- Authors: Moyo, Solomon Simbarashe
- Date: 2009
- Subjects: Monetary policy -- South Africa , Money supply -- South Africa , Inflation finance -- South Africa , Index numbers (Economics)
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:945 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002679 , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Money supply -- South Africa , Inflation finance -- South Africa , Index numbers (Economics)
- Description: The effectiveness of monetary policy in achieving its macroeconomic objectives such as price stability and economic growth depend on the monetary policy tools that are implemented by the Central Bank. Monetary aggregates are one of the tools that have been used as indicators of economic activity and as intermediate targets to achieve these economic objectives. Until recently, monetary aggregates have been questioned and criticised on their usefulness in monetary policy. This has been attributed to the economic, financial and technological developments that have distorted the relationship between monetary aggregates and major macroeconomic variables. This study investigates the relevance of monetary aggregation by comparing the traditional simple sum and Divisia index monetary aggregates which was constructed for the first time for South Africa using the Tornquist-Theil method. The Polynomial Distributed Lag model is employed to compare the performance of these monetary aggregates using their relationship with inflation and manufacturing index. Furthermore, the aggregates are compared in terms of their controllability and information content. Overall, the study found a very strong relationship between inflation and all the monetary aggregates. However, more specifically the results suggested that the Divisia indices are superior to the simple sum in terms of predicting inflation. The evidence further suggests that the Divisia aggregates provide higher information about inflation than the simple sum aggregates. Regarding the controllability of the monetary aggregates, the findings suggest that the monetary authorities can hardly control the monetary aggregates using monetary base. Finally, the relationship between manufacturing index and all the monetary aggregates was very weak.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2009
- Authors: Moyo, Solomon Simbarashe
- Date: 2009
- Subjects: Monetary policy -- South Africa , Money supply -- South Africa , Inflation finance -- South Africa , Index numbers (Economics)
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:945 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002679 , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Money supply -- South Africa , Inflation finance -- South Africa , Index numbers (Economics)
- Description: The effectiveness of monetary policy in achieving its macroeconomic objectives such as price stability and economic growth depend on the monetary policy tools that are implemented by the Central Bank. Monetary aggregates are one of the tools that have been used as indicators of economic activity and as intermediate targets to achieve these economic objectives. Until recently, monetary aggregates have been questioned and criticised on their usefulness in monetary policy. This has been attributed to the economic, financial and technological developments that have distorted the relationship between monetary aggregates and major macroeconomic variables. This study investigates the relevance of monetary aggregation by comparing the traditional simple sum and Divisia index monetary aggregates which was constructed for the first time for South Africa using the Tornquist-Theil method. The Polynomial Distributed Lag model is employed to compare the performance of these monetary aggregates using their relationship with inflation and manufacturing index. Furthermore, the aggregates are compared in terms of their controllability and information content. Overall, the study found a very strong relationship between inflation and all the monetary aggregates. However, more specifically the results suggested that the Divisia indices are superior to the simple sum in terms of predicting inflation. The evidence further suggests that the Divisia aggregates provide higher information about inflation than the simple sum aggregates. Regarding the controllability of the monetary aggregates, the findings suggest that the monetary authorities can hardly control the monetary aggregates using monetary base. Finally, the relationship between manufacturing index and all the monetary aggregates was very weak.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2009