A Veblenian Dichotomy re-examination of labour brokerage and South African labour market functionality
- Authors: Haaketa, Bernadatte Tina
- Date: 2020
- Subjects: Veblen, Thorstein, 1857-1929 , Contracting out -- South Africa , Temporary employment -- South Africa , Industrial relations -- South Africa , Labor supply -- South Africa , Labor supply -- Effect of technological innovations on -- South Africa , Manpower policy -- South Africa , Labor market -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/168446 , vital:41583
- Description: Labour markets ar ound the world have witnessed a great change in labour relations. The introduction of globa lisation, increased competition and technological advancements has caused business organisations to change their employment methods. While trying to survive and remain profitable, employers have adopted a new form of triangular employment relationship. Thi s form of employment relationship known as labour broking and which forms part of the Temporary Employment Services (TES) involves a relationship between the worker, labour agent (broker) and a client c ompany. Although it may seem like a good strategy for business organisations, the change in employment relationships has had negative effects and contributed to labour market dysfunctionalities . This has resulted in critics of labour broking calling or an end in labour broking and supporters of labour broking asking for better regulation of the industry. Labour markets are me When it comes to analysing labour broking and its impact on labour market functionality in South Africa. Scholars and analysts such as Budlender ( 2013 ) and Bhorat, Lil enstein, Oosthuizen , and Thornton ( 2016 ) have used the Neoclassical , New Institutional Economics and Marxist approach es. The current views on labour broking and the current schools of thought fail to look at the underlying behavioural aspect of labour brokers and the client c ompanies. Hence making it easy for labour brokers and their client companies to continue with their unscrupulous activities. However, this t hesis adapted the Veblenian Dichotomy framework which focuses on understanding the role of the evolutionary proce ss and the role of institutions in shaping economic behaviour. The Veblenian dichotomy shows that power plays an important role in how labour markets are run. Similarly, behaviour also influences the manner in which labour brokers and client companies trea t workers. And lastly the Veblenian dichotomy shows that in order for the industry to be run better there has to be change in the behaviour and cultu re of the labour brokers and client companies . This view allows for deeper analysis of the reasons for the flour ishing nature of labour broking and the rationale behind the behaviour of economic players and attempts to provide solutions on how labour brok ing can be correctly administered in South Africa. The Veblenian Dichotomy categorises institutions into t wo sets, namely the ceremonial institutions and instrumental institutions. Where Ceremonial institutions are said to be institutions that foster the interests of business such as profitability and earning of free income, even if there is no corresponding i ncrease in production. While Instrumental institutions, usually working through the influence of technology, address the interests of the common pers on and the labourer as well as business (Waller, 1982; Foster, 1981; Veblen, 1919). These two systems of va lues and institutions are antagonistic and the relative strength of one to the other determines economic outcomes and in whose interests the outcomes would be (Waller, 1982; Foster, 1981; Veblen, 1919). The Veblenian Dichotomy further looks at ceremonial encapsulation which occurs when ceremonial systems prevail over instrumental systems. Ceremonial encapsulation presents the hypothesis that the insti tutional structure will absorb new technology only to the extent that it can do so without disrupting the e xisting value structure (Waller, 1987; Bush, 1979.) The thesis use d various sources , such as working papers, public hearings, court cases, trade union submissions, integrated reports from companies, employee submissions and media publications on the debate about labour broking whether labour broking and applied the Interpretative Phenomenological Analysi s (IPA) research approach, in the process of data collection and analysis . The thesis further applied thematic analysis to derive themes that would be used to analyse the impact of labour broking on labour market functionality in South Africa. The emergent themes and subthemes were Exploitative lab our relations subthemes; job Insecurity, increased financial burden and no skills development. The second theme was; Competitive advantage and the subthemes were; i ncreased profits and organisational efficiency. The third theme was l abour market efficiency and the subthemes were. E mployment creation and labour market flexibility. And, the last theme was a mbiguous l abour regulation s with subthemes; n o freedom of association and a tool for circumventing labour regulations . Lastly, Tool’s (1994) criteria of j udgement for institutional adjustments was used to evaluate the emergent themes and to evaluate the impact of l abour broking on the overall welfare of individuals, which includes determining whether employees in the TES sector gain skills and improved stan dards of living. The findings of the research the TES sector is characterised by ceremonial values. Ceremonial values (as mentioned in section 3.3) are those values that are warranted by the ways of life that prescribe status and hierarchies and unpleasant distinctions to apply value and status on other people (Bush, 1987, 1988; Ayres, 1967). Thus changing the way in which labour brokers conduct themselves or handle labour broking activities would prove to be difficult . T he power that is mostly used in TES employment sectors is condign power. Condign power is explained as the form of power that is predominantly used in ceremonially encapsulated markets. And it involves making use of punishment or fear in order to get people to do something. This is because w orkers in the TES sector are forced to submit to conditions that they would not normally have submitted to if t hey did not have a fear of losing their jobs. This supports existing literature which shows that in the TES sector, TES employers use force and p ower in order to get the workers to do something, and this results in a master - servant relationship between the employer and the employee. Furthermore, the protests that erupt in the TES sector agree with Marxist theory which notes that the frustrations in the way workers are treated would result in a revolution of the working class against the employers. However, now, workers have not been able to overcome the employers and take over the industry. In addition to what current literature says, the research found that some managers make use of labour broking as a way of manifesting their exploitative characteristics on the labour market, thus creating information asymmetries in order to advance their own personal needs. Situations such as these reve al characteristics of opportunistic behaviour, which is perpetuated by the imperfect flow of information. This means th at the market is imperfect, and imperfect markets are characteristics of dysfunctional labour markets. The research also found that it i s the South African Constitution that protects labour brokers and client companies from accounting for the unfair treatm ent of workers. Labour brokers and client companies rely on the South African Constitution to defend them when it comes to banning labou r broking. This is because section 22 of the Constitution talks about the right of every individual to trade freely in S outh Africa (Kutumela, 2015). When institutional adjustments do not meet the requirements of the progressive criteria, it means they are regressive. Based on the data that was collected and the responses and remarks of the workers, trade unions, and trade union federations, it can be said that TES employment and labour broking hinders labour market functionality. Hence, it can be concluded that, due to the characteristics mentioned, labour broking does indeed have a regressive element which hinders labour m arket functionality. An area for further research for TES employment would be to look at the impact of the amendments to the Labour Rela tions Act. Specifically focusing on the Constitutional Court ruling, which forces labour brokers to treat employees who have been employed for longer than three months as permanent employees.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2020
- Authors: Haaketa, Bernadatte Tina
- Date: 2020
- Subjects: Veblen, Thorstein, 1857-1929 , Contracting out -- South Africa , Temporary employment -- South Africa , Industrial relations -- South Africa , Labor supply -- South Africa , Labor supply -- Effect of technological innovations on -- South Africa , Manpower policy -- South Africa , Labor market -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/168446 , vital:41583
- Description: Labour markets ar ound the world have witnessed a great change in labour relations. The introduction of globa lisation, increased competition and technological advancements has caused business organisations to change their employment methods. While trying to survive and remain profitable, employers have adopted a new form of triangular employment relationship. Thi s form of employment relationship known as labour broking and which forms part of the Temporary Employment Services (TES) involves a relationship between the worker, labour agent (broker) and a client c ompany. Although it may seem like a good strategy for business organisations, the change in employment relationships has had negative effects and contributed to labour market dysfunctionalities . This has resulted in critics of labour broking calling or an end in labour broking and supporters of labour broking asking for better regulation of the industry. Labour markets are me When it comes to analysing labour broking and its impact on labour market functionality in South Africa. Scholars and analysts such as Budlender ( 2013 ) and Bhorat, Lil enstein, Oosthuizen , and Thornton ( 2016 ) have used the Neoclassical , New Institutional Economics and Marxist approach es. The current views on labour broking and the current schools of thought fail to look at the underlying behavioural aspect of labour brokers and the client c ompanies. Hence making it easy for labour brokers and their client companies to continue with their unscrupulous activities. However, this t hesis adapted the Veblenian Dichotomy framework which focuses on understanding the role of the evolutionary proce ss and the role of institutions in shaping economic behaviour. The Veblenian dichotomy shows that power plays an important role in how labour markets are run. Similarly, behaviour also influences the manner in which labour brokers and client companies trea t workers. And lastly the Veblenian dichotomy shows that in order for the industry to be run better there has to be change in the behaviour and cultu re of the labour brokers and client companies . This view allows for deeper analysis of the reasons for the flour ishing nature of labour broking and the rationale behind the behaviour of economic players and attempts to provide solutions on how labour brok ing can be correctly administered in South Africa. The Veblenian Dichotomy categorises institutions into t wo sets, namely the ceremonial institutions and instrumental institutions. Where Ceremonial institutions are said to be institutions that foster the interests of business such as profitability and earning of free income, even if there is no corresponding i ncrease in production. While Instrumental institutions, usually working through the influence of technology, address the interests of the common pers on and the labourer as well as business (Waller, 1982; Foster, 1981; Veblen, 1919). These two systems of va lues and institutions are antagonistic and the relative strength of one to the other determines economic outcomes and in whose interests the outcomes would be (Waller, 1982; Foster, 1981; Veblen, 1919). The Veblenian Dichotomy further looks at ceremonial encapsulation which occurs when ceremonial systems prevail over instrumental systems. Ceremonial encapsulation presents the hypothesis that the insti tutional structure will absorb new technology only to the extent that it can do so without disrupting the e xisting value structure (Waller, 1987; Bush, 1979.) The thesis use d various sources , such as working papers, public hearings, court cases, trade union submissions, integrated reports from companies, employee submissions and media publications on the debate about labour broking whether labour broking and applied the Interpretative Phenomenological Analysi s (IPA) research approach, in the process of data collection and analysis . The thesis further applied thematic analysis to derive themes that would be used to analyse the impact of labour broking on labour market functionality in South Africa. The emergent themes and subthemes were Exploitative lab our relations subthemes; job Insecurity, increased financial burden and no skills development. The second theme was; Competitive advantage and the subthemes were; i ncreased profits and organisational efficiency. The third theme was l abour market efficiency and the subthemes were. E mployment creation and labour market flexibility. And, the last theme was a mbiguous l abour regulation s with subthemes; n o freedom of association and a tool for circumventing labour regulations . Lastly, Tool’s (1994) criteria of j udgement for institutional adjustments was used to evaluate the emergent themes and to evaluate the impact of l abour broking on the overall welfare of individuals, which includes determining whether employees in the TES sector gain skills and improved stan dards of living. The findings of the research the TES sector is characterised by ceremonial values. Ceremonial values (as mentioned in section 3.3) are those values that are warranted by the ways of life that prescribe status and hierarchies and unpleasant distinctions to apply value and status on other people (Bush, 1987, 1988; Ayres, 1967). Thus changing the way in which labour brokers conduct themselves or handle labour broking activities would prove to be difficult . T he power that is mostly used in TES employment sectors is condign power. Condign power is explained as the form of power that is predominantly used in ceremonially encapsulated markets. And it involves making use of punishment or fear in order to get people to do something. This is because w orkers in the TES sector are forced to submit to conditions that they would not normally have submitted to if t hey did not have a fear of losing their jobs. This supports existing literature which shows that in the TES sector, TES employers use force and p ower in order to get the workers to do something, and this results in a master - servant relationship between the employer and the employee. Furthermore, the protests that erupt in the TES sector agree with Marxist theory which notes that the frustrations in the way workers are treated would result in a revolution of the working class against the employers. However, now, workers have not been able to overcome the employers and take over the industry. In addition to what current literature says, the research found that some managers make use of labour broking as a way of manifesting their exploitative characteristics on the labour market, thus creating information asymmetries in order to advance their own personal needs. Situations such as these reve al characteristics of opportunistic behaviour, which is perpetuated by the imperfect flow of information. This means th at the market is imperfect, and imperfect markets are characteristics of dysfunctional labour markets. The research also found that it i s the South African Constitution that protects labour brokers and client companies from accounting for the unfair treatm ent of workers. Labour brokers and client companies rely on the South African Constitution to defend them when it comes to banning labou r broking. This is because section 22 of the Constitution talks about the right of every individual to trade freely in S outh Africa (Kutumela, 2015). When institutional adjustments do not meet the requirements of the progressive criteria, it means they are regressive. Based on the data that was collected and the responses and remarks of the workers, trade unions, and trade union federations, it can be said that TES employment and labour broking hinders labour market functionality. Hence, it can be concluded that, due to the characteristics mentioned, labour broking does indeed have a regressive element which hinders labour m arket functionality. An area for further research for TES employment would be to look at the impact of the amendments to the Labour Rela tions Act. Specifically focusing on the Constitutional Court ruling, which forces labour brokers to treat employees who have been employed for longer than three months as permanent employees.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2020
Analysis of the relationship between changes in macroeconomic variables and various sector price indices of JSE
- Mapanda, Tungamirai Chisvuvo
- Authors: Mapanda, Tungamirai Chisvuvo
- Date: 2020
- Subjects: Johannesburg Stock Exchange , Stock price indexes -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/147445 , vital:38637
- Description: Purpose- The purpose of this paper is to analyse the relationship between changes in domestic macroeconomic variables and various indices of the JSE during the full time period, June 1995 to December 2018 and the sub-periods, June 1995 to June 2007 and July 2007 to December 2018. Design/ methodology/ approach- The paper employs the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model approach to cointegration using monthly data from June 1995 to December 2018. Findings- In terms of the long run, the results show that the coincident indicator measure of domestic economic activity is positively and significantly related to the various JSE indices for all study periods. In terms of inflation, the results show no relationship between inflation rate and the various indices for both whole period and June 1995 to June 2007 sub period. However for the July 2007 to December 2018 sub period, JSE All Share Index and JSE Top 40 Index are negatively related. For the real effective exchange rate, only the Consumer Services Index is positively related to the exchange rate in terms of June 1995 to June 2007 sub period. However, JSE All Share Index and JSE Top 40 Index are negatively related to the exchange rate in all study periods. In terms of the short term interest rate, for the whole period, JSE All Share Index, JSE Top 40 Index, Health Care Index and Telecommunications Index are negatively related to interest rate. In terms of the June 1995 to June 2007 sub period, JSE All Share Index and Industrials Index are negatively related to the short term interest rate. For the July 2007 to December 2018 sub period, Telecommunications Index and Technology Index are negatively related. In terms of the short run, the coincident indicator is positively and significantly related to the various JSE indices for all study periods. Inflation is not significantly related to any index in the whole period. In terms of the June 1995 to June 2007 sub period, Industrials Index and Financials Index are positively related to inflation and in the July 2007 to December 2018 sub period, Consumer Goods Index, Health Index and Consumer Services Index are negatively related to the inflation rate. The real effective exchange rate is positively and significantly related to the various JSE indices in the different study periods. In terms of the short term interest rate, for the whole period and the June 1995 to June 2007 sub period only the Technology Index is not significantly and negatively related to the short term interest rate, but for the July 2007 to December 2018 sub period, Top 40 Index, Telecommunications Index and Technology Index are positively related to the interest rate. Only the Financial Index is negatively related to short term interest rates during this sub period. Research Limitations- Not a lot literature was found on the relationship between macroeconomic variables and the various sector indices of the JSE. Most previous work, in the South African context focused just on the JSE All Share Index. Practical Implications- The findings can help investors diversify their portfolios into indices that benefit from expected changes in macroeconomic variables, such as recessions, rising interest rates, rising inflation or a weakening exchange rate. Alternatively, they can hedge themselves against the negative implications of such macroeconomic changes on portfolio performance. In addition, the findings are important for the monetary authorities to better understand the implications of their policy changes on financial markets.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2020
- Authors: Mapanda, Tungamirai Chisvuvo
- Date: 2020
- Subjects: Johannesburg Stock Exchange , Stock price indexes -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/147445 , vital:38637
- Description: Purpose- The purpose of this paper is to analyse the relationship between changes in domestic macroeconomic variables and various indices of the JSE during the full time period, June 1995 to December 2018 and the sub-periods, June 1995 to June 2007 and July 2007 to December 2018. Design/ methodology/ approach- The paper employs the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model approach to cointegration using monthly data from June 1995 to December 2018. Findings- In terms of the long run, the results show that the coincident indicator measure of domestic economic activity is positively and significantly related to the various JSE indices for all study periods. In terms of inflation, the results show no relationship between inflation rate and the various indices for both whole period and June 1995 to June 2007 sub period. However for the July 2007 to December 2018 sub period, JSE All Share Index and JSE Top 40 Index are negatively related. For the real effective exchange rate, only the Consumer Services Index is positively related to the exchange rate in terms of June 1995 to June 2007 sub period. However, JSE All Share Index and JSE Top 40 Index are negatively related to the exchange rate in all study periods. In terms of the short term interest rate, for the whole period, JSE All Share Index, JSE Top 40 Index, Health Care Index and Telecommunications Index are negatively related to interest rate. In terms of the June 1995 to June 2007 sub period, JSE All Share Index and Industrials Index are negatively related to the short term interest rate. For the July 2007 to December 2018 sub period, Telecommunications Index and Technology Index are negatively related. In terms of the short run, the coincident indicator is positively and significantly related to the various JSE indices for all study periods. Inflation is not significantly related to any index in the whole period. In terms of the June 1995 to June 2007 sub period, Industrials Index and Financials Index are positively related to inflation and in the July 2007 to December 2018 sub period, Consumer Goods Index, Health Index and Consumer Services Index are negatively related to the inflation rate. The real effective exchange rate is positively and significantly related to the various JSE indices in the different study periods. In terms of the short term interest rate, for the whole period and the June 1995 to June 2007 sub period only the Technology Index is not significantly and negatively related to the short term interest rate, but for the July 2007 to December 2018 sub period, Top 40 Index, Telecommunications Index and Technology Index are positively related to the interest rate. Only the Financial Index is negatively related to short term interest rates during this sub period. Research Limitations- Not a lot literature was found on the relationship between macroeconomic variables and the various sector indices of the JSE. Most previous work, in the South African context focused just on the JSE All Share Index. Practical Implications- The findings can help investors diversify their portfolios into indices that benefit from expected changes in macroeconomic variables, such as recessions, rising interest rates, rising inflation or a weakening exchange rate. Alternatively, they can hedge themselves against the negative implications of such macroeconomic changes on portfolio performance. In addition, the findings are important for the monetary authorities to better understand the implications of their policy changes on financial markets.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2020
Economic evaluation of chemical and biological control methods on four aquatic weeds in South Africa
- Authors: Maluleke, Mary
- Date: 2020
- Subjects: Invasive plants -- Biological control -- Economic aspects -- South Africa , Introduced organisms -- Biological control -- Economic aspects -- South Africa , Aquatic weeds -- Biological control -- Economic aspects -- South Africa , Aquatic weeds -- Control -- Economic aspects -- South Africa , Aquatic resources -- Management , Cost effectiveness , Net present value , Herbicides -- Cost effectiveness , Working for Water Programme , Water conservation -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/145953 , vital:38481
- Description: Invasive alien plants (IAPs) of various kinds pose a threat to ecosystems, biodiversity, conservation and overall economy. In a world experiencing exponential increase in IAPs – this issue has become endemic, especially for developing countries such as South Africa. South Africa is a water scarce country and IAPs increase water stress. Thus, South Africa must invest in a more realistic, environmentally and economically inclusive policy outlook on the management of IAPs including aquatic weeds. This is especially urgent when considering the changing global climate, which is predicted to further reduce the quantity and quality of potable water. The Working for Water Programme (WfW) in South Africa aimed at addressing the issue of IAPs in a way that protects the environment as well as produces maximum return to society through poverty alleviation. As such, the aquatic weeds management strategy put in place for four of South Africa’s aquatic weeds Pista stratiotes, Salvinia molesta, Azolla filiculoides and Myriophyllum aquaticum - should be one that is cost-effective, efficient and sustainable; yielding the best possible return on investment. Since these four weeds are already under complete biological control, in the absence of biological agents, the WfW programme would have used herbicides to control these weeds. As such, this thesis conducted a retrospective analysis of the relative herbicide cost-saving associated with the use of biological control. To do this, due to existing limitations, E. crassipes was used as a surrogate weed and its herbicide control costs were used as proxy for the herbicide control cost estimates of the four selected weeds; with reasonable conversion factors applied to cater for the biological difference of the five weeds. Using the cost benefit analysis (CBA) framework, the net present cost (NPC) of each control method was calculated to which the relative cost-saving was considered to represent the avoided cost of using biological control instead of chemical control on these weeds. The avoided cost was used as the main benefit component when deriving the relative benefit cost ratios (BCR). Two scenarios were used, one assuming no follow-up requirement and the other assuming one follow-up requirement for chemical control. Using an 8% discount rate, the study found that the estimated cost of the biological control method on all four aquatic weeds was about R7,843,205 while for chemical control the estimated costs would have costed R149,580,142, R268,264,838 and R881,711,738 for application by means of a boat, bakkie and knapsack. Chemical control cost estimates would have increased to about R164,538,052, R295,216,120 and R1,008,761,000 for boat, bakkie and knapsack approach respectively when including a possible follow-up programme. These would have led to positive BCRs of 90.24:1, 164.97:1 and 557.99:1 across the three chemical control approaches without a follow-up (with BCR of about 99.67:1, 182.00:1 and 631.56:1 for the boat, bakkie and knapsack approach respectively with the accepted follow-up programme). When running a sensitivity test with varying discount rates of 5% and 10%, these results remained robust. As such, failing to reject the dominant hypothesis in literature, the main conclusion of the study is that biological control is indeed the more cost-effective management option compared to chemical control with respect to herbicide cost-saving. Further, biological control is most-likely to produce more environmental cost-saving and water-saving over chemical control. The study recommends the continued use of the biological control investment on the four aquatic weeds under study as well as on emerging aquatic weeds such as Iris pseudacorus, Nymphaea mexicana and Sagittaria platyphylla in South Africa.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2020
Economic evaluation of chemical and biological control methods on four aquatic weeds in South Africa
- Authors: Maluleke, Mary
- Date: 2020
- Subjects: Invasive plants -- Biological control -- Economic aspects -- South Africa , Introduced organisms -- Biological control -- Economic aspects -- South Africa , Aquatic weeds -- Biological control -- Economic aspects -- South Africa , Aquatic weeds -- Control -- Economic aspects -- South Africa , Aquatic resources -- Management , Cost effectiveness , Net present value , Herbicides -- Cost effectiveness , Working for Water Programme , Water conservation -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/145953 , vital:38481
- Description: Invasive alien plants (IAPs) of various kinds pose a threat to ecosystems, biodiversity, conservation and overall economy. In a world experiencing exponential increase in IAPs – this issue has become endemic, especially for developing countries such as South Africa. South Africa is a water scarce country and IAPs increase water stress. Thus, South Africa must invest in a more realistic, environmentally and economically inclusive policy outlook on the management of IAPs including aquatic weeds. This is especially urgent when considering the changing global climate, which is predicted to further reduce the quantity and quality of potable water. The Working for Water Programme (WfW) in South Africa aimed at addressing the issue of IAPs in a way that protects the environment as well as produces maximum return to society through poverty alleviation. As such, the aquatic weeds management strategy put in place for four of South Africa’s aquatic weeds Pista stratiotes, Salvinia molesta, Azolla filiculoides and Myriophyllum aquaticum - should be one that is cost-effective, efficient and sustainable; yielding the best possible return on investment. Since these four weeds are already under complete biological control, in the absence of biological agents, the WfW programme would have used herbicides to control these weeds. As such, this thesis conducted a retrospective analysis of the relative herbicide cost-saving associated with the use of biological control. To do this, due to existing limitations, E. crassipes was used as a surrogate weed and its herbicide control costs were used as proxy for the herbicide control cost estimates of the four selected weeds; with reasonable conversion factors applied to cater for the biological difference of the five weeds. Using the cost benefit analysis (CBA) framework, the net present cost (NPC) of each control method was calculated to which the relative cost-saving was considered to represent the avoided cost of using biological control instead of chemical control on these weeds. The avoided cost was used as the main benefit component when deriving the relative benefit cost ratios (BCR). Two scenarios were used, one assuming no follow-up requirement and the other assuming one follow-up requirement for chemical control. Using an 8% discount rate, the study found that the estimated cost of the biological control method on all four aquatic weeds was about R7,843,205 while for chemical control the estimated costs would have costed R149,580,142, R268,264,838 and R881,711,738 for application by means of a boat, bakkie and knapsack. Chemical control cost estimates would have increased to about R164,538,052, R295,216,120 and R1,008,761,000 for boat, bakkie and knapsack approach respectively when including a possible follow-up programme. These would have led to positive BCRs of 90.24:1, 164.97:1 and 557.99:1 across the three chemical control approaches without a follow-up (with BCR of about 99.67:1, 182.00:1 and 631.56:1 for the boat, bakkie and knapsack approach respectively with the accepted follow-up programme). When running a sensitivity test with varying discount rates of 5% and 10%, these results remained robust. As such, failing to reject the dominant hypothesis in literature, the main conclusion of the study is that biological control is indeed the more cost-effective management option compared to chemical control with respect to herbicide cost-saving. Further, biological control is most-likely to produce more environmental cost-saving and water-saving over chemical control. The study recommends the continued use of the biological control investment on the four aquatic weeds under study as well as on emerging aquatic weeds such as Iris pseudacorus, Nymphaea mexicana and Sagittaria platyphylla in South Africa.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2020
Market timing and portfolio returns: an empirical analysis of the potential profitability of buy-sell strategies, based on South African equities 2009-2018
- Authors: Mulweli, Ramulongo
- Date: 2020
- Subjects: Johannesburg Stock Exchange , Stocks -- Charts, diagrams, etc. , Investment analysis -- South Africa , Stocks -- South Africa , Stocks -- South Africa -- Cast studies
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/144487 , vital:38350
- Description: South Africa’s financial markets have become larger and more complex over recent decades. The number of market participants who are using technical analysis techniques to predict the market’s movement has been growing rapidly. This research aims to investigate if historical share prices can be used when forecasting the market’s direction and to examine the profitability of the Japanese candlestick patterns. The study is based on ten companies selected from the JSE top 40 2019 composition. These are Aspen Pharmacy Holding, Capitec Bank Holding LTD, Discovery LTD, Kumba Iron Ore LTD, Mondi PLC, Mr. Price Group LTD, MTN Group LTD, Naspers LTD, SASOL LTD, and Shoprite Holdings LTD. These were selected from the JSE top 40 based on market capitalization and sector. This research analyzes eight candlestick reversal patterns; four are bullish patterns namely: doji star, hammer, bullish engulfing and the piercing lines and the other four are bearish patterns namely: shooting star, hanging man, bearish engulfing and the dark cloud cover. The ARCH and GARCH models are used to test for correlation between past share prices and future share prices and the binomial test and the mean return calculations were used to test the profitability of candlestick patterns. The sample is from Thomson DataStream 2019 and IRESS SA 2019 and covers ten years with 2496 observations starting from 02 January 2009 to 31 December 2018. The findings from the ARCH and GARCH tests revealed that there is a serial correlation between the returns from the previous day and the returns for the current day. The results from the mean returns and the binomial tests show strong evidence that the shooting star, hanging man, bearish engulfing and the bulling engulfing are statistically significant in predicting the share price movements. On the other hand, there was no evidence that the dark cloud cover, piercing lines, and the bullish doji can predict share price movements. Additionally, further studies on this topic could be improved by adding different candlestick patterns and the total number of companies analyzed. The results could also be improved by analyzing the candlestick reversal patterns when they are used with other trading rules such as support resistance levels and oscillators.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2020
- Authors: Mulweli, Ramulongo
- Date: 2020
- Subjects: Johannesburg Stock Exchange , Stocks -- Charts, diagrams, etc. , Investment analysis -- South Africa , Stocks -- South Africa , Stocks -- South Africa -- Cast studies
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/144487 , vital:38350
- Description: South Africa’s financial markets have become larger and more complex over recent decades. The number of market participants who are using technical analysis techniques to predict the market’s movement has been growing rapidly. This research aims to investigate if historical share prices can be used when forecasting the market’s direction and to examine the profitability of the Japanese candlestick patterns. The study is based on ten companies selected from the JSE top 40 2019 composition. These are Aspen Pharmacy Holding, Capitec Bank Holding LTD, Discovery LTD, Kumba Iron Ore LTD, Mondi PLC, Mr. Price Group LTD, MTN Group LTD, Naspers LTD, SASOL LTD, and Shoprite Holdings LTD. These were selected from the JSE top 40 based on market capitalization and sector. This research analyzes eight candlestick reversal patterns; four are bullish patterns namely: doji star, hammer, bullish engulfing and the piercing lines and the other four are bearish patterns namely: shooting star, hanging man, bearish engulfing and the dark cloud cover. The ARCH and GARCH models are used to test for correlation between past share prices and future share prices and the binomial test and the mean return calculations were used to test the profitability of candlestick patterns. The sample is from Thomson DataStream 2019 and IRESS SA 2019 and covers ten years with 2496 observations starting from 02 January 2009 to 31 December 2018. The findings from the ARCH and GARCH tests revealed that there is a serial correlation between the returns from the previous day and the returns for the current day. The results from the mean returns and the binomial tests show strong evidence that the shooting star, hanging man, bearish engulfing and the bulling engulfing are statistically significant in predicting the share price movements. On the other hand, there was no evidence that the dark cloud cover, piercing lines, and the bullish doji can predict share price movements. Additionally, further studies on this topic could be improved by adding different candlestick patterns and the total number of companies analyzed. The results could also be improved by analyzing the candlestick reversal patterns when they are used with other trading rules such as support resistance levels and oscillators.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2020
Sectoral co-integration and portfolio diversification benefits: a business cycle examination of South African equity sectors
- Authors: Hofisi, Tinashe S
- Date: 2020
- Subjects: Portfolio management -- South Africa , Investments -- South Africa , Investments, South African , Stocks -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/146379 , vital:38521
- Description: The onset of globalisation and simultaneous changes in financial technology and financial reforms dissipated hurdles once faced in financial transactions among stock markets. Hence, stock markets around the world became increasingly integrated because there was a free flow of cross border investments. Consequently, international diversification diminished thereby undermining the ability of investors to diversify investments across borders. For that reason, recent literature on portfolio diversification is urging investors to shift their focus to domestic portfolio diversification as an alternative. On that account, this study aims to examine the co-integration and dynamic causalities between South African equity market sectors in order to ascertain the sectoral diversification opportunities available to domestic investors over time. The study was examined over the different phases of the business cycle as well as the full sample, i.e. 2004 – 2018, with a view to shedding light on the inter-sectoral diversification opportunities of domestic investors over the South African business cycle. The phases of the business cycle applied are a| expansion and boom; b| recession and recovery phase and c| stagnation phase. The Johansen co-integration and Granger-causality tests were employed. The hypothesis of the study is that, if sectors are not cointegrated, then diversification benefits can be reaped by constructing a portfolio that combines stocks from the respective sectors. On the whole, the findings of this study show that there are both long-run and short-run diversification opportunities across the different phases of the South African business cycle as well as the full sample. However, there are lesser diversification opportunities in the recession and recovery phase over both the long-run and short-run. These results indicate that domestic sectoral portfolio diversification is least effective when it is needed the most (i.e. in a period of heightened volatility such as recession and recovery phase). This study will contribute to the existing literature in two ways; firstly, to investors who intend to diversify their portfolios domestically rather than internationally and, secondly, after reasonably thorough research it was evident that there is scant literature on domestic sectoral diversification in South Africa. As a result, the study attempts to address this gap. Additionally, the essence of the business cycle in this study is to make investors aware of potential diversification opportunities when positioning their portfolios for the next shift in the business cycle.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2020
- Authors: Hofisi, Tinashe S
- Date: 2020
- Subjects: Portfolio management -- South Africa , Investments -- South Africa , Investments, South African , Stocks -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/146379 , vital:38521
- Description: The onset of globalisation and simultaneous changes in financial technology and financial reforms dissipated hurdles once faced in financial transactions among stock markets. Hence, stock markets around the world became increasingly integrated because there was a free flow of cross border investments. Consequently, international diversification diminished thereby undermining the ability of investors to diversify investments across borders. For that reason, recent literature on portfolio diversification is urging investors to shift their focus to domestic portfolio diversification as an alternative. On that account, this study aims to examine the co-integration and dynamic causalities between South African equity market sectors in order to ascertain the sectoral diversification opportunities available to domestic investors over time. The study was examined over the different phases of the business cycle as well as the full sample, i.e. 2004 – 2018, with a view to shedding light on the inter-sectoral diversification opportunities of domestic investors over the South African business cycle. The phases of the business cycle applied are a| expansion and boom; b| recession and recovery phase and c| stagnation phase. The Johansen co-integration and Granger-causality tests were employed. The hypothesis of the study is that, if sectors are not cointegrated, then diversification benefits can be reaped by constructing a portfolio that combines stocks from the respective sectors. On the whole, the findings of this study show that there are both long-run and short-run diversification opportunities across the different phases of the South African business cycle as well as the full sample. However, there are lesser diversification opportunities in the recession and recovery phase over both the long-run and short-run. These results indicate that domestic sectoral portfolio diversification is least effective when it is needed the most (i.e. in a period of heightened volatility such as recession and recovery phase). This study will contribute to the existing literature in two ways; firstly, to investors who intend to diversify their portfolios domestically rather than internationally and, secondly, after reasonably thorough research it was evident that there is scant literature on domestic sectoral diversification in South Africa. As a result, the study attempts to address this gap. Additionally, the essence of the business cycle in this study is to make investors aware of potential diversification opportunities when positioning their portfolios for the next shift in the business cycle.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2020
The current nature of intra-regional trade in the proposed tripartite free trade area
- Authors: Chibuta, Chisengele
- Date: 2020
- Subjects: Customs unions -- Africa, Southern -- Economic integration , Africa, Southern -- Economic policy , Africa, Southern -- Economic integration , Africa, Southern -- Economic conditions , Tripartite Free Trade Area , Free trade -- Africa, Southern
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/146744 , vital:38553
- Description: This thesis examines and analyses the current nature of intra-regional trade between member states of the proposed Tripartite Free Trade Area in order to contribute to an understanding of the potential for intra-regional trade within the region to increase. Trade Complementarity Indexes were used to determine how well the structures of the three founding blocs’ major imports and exports match. The results show that there is a high degree of trade complementarity in the trade of the top 5 major products traded between the regional groups. With the proposed TFTA in place, high trade complementarity could lead to increased trade between the regional groups. Trade Intensity Indexes were used to determine how intensively the three founding blocs trade with one another. Results from the indexes help determine the extent to which the blocs currently view each other as important trading partners and the implications of this for the proposed TFTA. Results show that EAC and SADC as well as EAC and COMESA viewed each other as significant trading partners while SADC and COMESA did not for the majority of the years from 2001 to 2018. With the TFTA in place, intra-regional trade could be strengthened among the members who currently trade intensively because tariffs between them would be progressively eliminated as required by the TFTA Agreement. Revealed Comparative Advantage Indexes were used to gain insights on whether member states have any comparative advantage in their top 5 exports. Results from the indexes were used to determine whether member states have comparative advantage in similar or dissimilar major exports and the implications of this for the proposed TFTA. Results show that member states have revealed comparative advantage in similar products and these products present opportunities for joint-production among member states as well as sectors for product development once the proposed TFTA is in place. Revealed Trade Barrier Indexes were used to gain insights into the extent of ease of market access into each regional bloc’s market. Results from the indexes indicate whether major products imported from each other receive possibly discriminatory or preferential treatment. The results indicate that the majority of the top 5 imports sourced from each region receive preferential treatment. This indicates that there is ease of market access for the top 5 imports sourced from each other and this could promote increased intra-regional trade among member states in these product categories because tariff and non-tariff barriers to trade will be progressively eliminated once the TFTA is in place.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2020
- Authors: Chibuta, Chisengele
- Date: 2020
- Subjects: Customs unions -- Africa, Southern -- Economic integration , Africa, Southern -- Economic policy , Africa, Southern -- Economic integration , Africa, Southern -- Economic conditions , Tripartite Free Trade Area , Free trade -- Africa, Southern
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/146744 , vital:38553
- Description: This thesis examines and analyses the current nature of intra-regional trade between member states of the proposed Tripartite Free Trade Area in order to contribute to an understanding of the potential for intra-regional trade within the region to increase. Trade Complementarity Indexes were used to determine how well the structures of the three founding blocs’ major imports and exports match. The results show that there is a high degree of trade complementarity in the trade of the top 5 major products traded between the regional groups. With the proposed TFTA in place, high trade complementarity could lead to increased trade between the regional groups. Trade Intensity Indexes were used to determine how intensively the three founding blocs trade with one another. Results from the indexes help determine the extent to which the blocs currently view each other as important trading partners and the implications of this for the proposed TFTA. Results show that EAC and SADC as well as EAC and COMESA viewed each other as significant trading partners while SADC and COMESA did not for the majority of the years from 2001 to 2018. With the TFTA in place, intra-regional trade could be strengthened among the members who currently trade intensively because tariffs between them would be progressively eliminated as required by the TFTA Agreement. Revealed Comparative Advantage Indexes were used to gain insights on whether member states have any comparative advantage in their top 5 exports. Results from the indexes were used to determine whether member states have comparative advantage in similar or dissimilar major exports and the implications of this for the proposed TFTA. Results show that member states have revealed comparative advantage in similar products and these products present opportunities for joint-production among member states as well as sectors for product development once the proposed TFTA is in place. Revealed Trade Barrier Indexes were used to gain insights into the extent of ease of market access into each regional bloc’s market. Results from the indexes indicate whether major products imported from each other receive possibly discriminatory or preferential treatment. The results indicate that the majority of the top 5 imports sourced from each region receive preferential treatment. This indicates that there is ease of market access for the top 5 imports sourced from each other and this could promote increased intra-regional trade among member states in these product categories because tariff and non-tariff barriers to trade will be progressively eliminated once the TFTA is in place.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2020
The impact of South African monetary policy on output and price stability in Namibia
- William, Anna Martha Tandakos
- Authors: William, Anna Martha Tandakos
- Date: 2020
- Subjects: Common Monetary Area (Organization) , Monetary unions -- Africa, Southern , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Monetary policy -- Namibia , Repurchase agreements -- South Africa , Repurchase agreements -- Namibia , Inflation (Finance) -- South Africa , Inflation (Finance) -- Namibia , Namibia -- Economic conditions , Transmission mechanism (Monetary policy)
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/167709 , vital:41505
- Description: Namibia is a member country of the Common Monetary Area (CMA) with Lesotho, Swaziland and South Africa. South Africa is the anchor country to which the smaller member states have surrendered monetary policy authority. This thesis therefore examines the empirical relationship between the South Africa repo rate (SArepo) on the one hand and Namibia’s repo rate (Namrepo), Prime Lending Rate (PLR), Private Sector Credit Extension (PSCE), Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on the other hand. The credit channel of the monetary policy transmission mechanism informs the theoretical foundation of the thesis. Vector Autoregression modelling, variance decomposition and impulse response functions were used to explore the nature and strength of the relationship between the SArepo and said variables in Namibia. This thesis used quarterly data for the period 2003 to 2017. The variation in the Namrepo was predominantly explained by the SArepo, which confirmed that the Namrepo strongly followed the SArepo. The impulse response function results found that the impact of a contractionary monetary policy shock (an increase in the SArepo) lasted for up to six quarters before the effect started to fade. The Namrepo exhibited a positive response to an increase in the SArepo, although the magnitude of the response started to fade after the third quarter. The PLR, as a representative of market rates in Namibia, also exhibited a positive response to an increase in the SArepo. The results were similar for the Namrepo and the PLR because changes to the NamRepo are passed through immediately to the market interest rates. On the real variables, the study found that a contractionary monetary policy shock initiated in South Africa resulted in an increase in inflation in Namibia of less than 0.4 percent, whereas output declined by less than 1.0 percent. Interestingly, a Namibia (domestic) contractionary monetary policy shock resulted in a decline in prices of less than 0.4 percent. GDP, on the other hand, exhibited a positive response to a contractionary monetary shock, with an increase of less than 2.0 percent in the first four quarters of the period observed. The results reflected that a contractionary monetary policy shock from South Africa was more effective with regard to its impact on GDP; however, a domestic monetary policy shock was more effective at impacting on domestic inflation compared to the impact from South Africa.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2020
- Authors: William, Anna Martha Tandakos
- Date: 2020
- Subjects: Common Monetary Area (Organization) , Monetary unions -- Africa, Southern , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Monetary policy -- Namibia , Repurchase agreements -- South Africa , Repurchase agreements -- Namibia , Inflation (Finance) -- South Africa , Inflation (Finance) -- Namibia , Namibia -- Economic conditions , Transmission mechanism (Monetary policy)
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/167709 , vital:41505
- Description: Namibia is a member country of the Common Monetary Area (CMA) with Lesotho, Swaziland and South Africa. South Africa is the anchor country to which the smaller member states have surrendered monetary policy authority. This thesis therefore examines the empirical relationship between the South Africa repo rate (SArepo) on the one hand and Namibia’s repo rate (Namrepo), Prime Lending Rate (PLR), Private Sector Credit Extension (PSCE), Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on the other hand. The credit channel of the monetary policy transmission mechanism informs the theoretical foundation of the thesis. Vector Autoregression modelling, variance decomposition and impulse response functions were used to explore the nature and strength of the relationship between the SArepo and said variables in Namibia. This thesis used quarterly data for the period 2003 to 2017. The variation in the Namrepo was predominantly explained by the SArepo, which confirmed that the Namrepo strongly followed the SArepo. The impulse response function results found that the impact of a contractionary monetary policy shock (an increase in the SArepo) lasted for up to six quarters before the effect started to fade. The Namrepo exhibited a positive response to an increase in the SArepo, although the magnitude of the response started to fade after the third quarter. The PLR, as a representative of market rates in Namibia, also exhibited a positive response to an increase in the SArepo. The results were similar for the Namrepo and the PLR because changes to the NamRepo are passed through immediately to the market interest rates. On the real variables, the study found that a contractionary monetary policy shock initiated in South Africa resulted in an increase in inflation in Namibia of less than 0.4 percent, whereas output declined by less than 1.0 percent. Interestingly, a Namibia (domestic) contractionary monetary policy shock resulted in a decline in prices of less than 0.4 percent. GDP, on the other hand, exhibited a positive response to a contractionary monetary shock, with an increase of less than 2.0 percent in the first four quarters of the period observed. The results reflected that a contractionary monetary policy shock from South Africa was more effective with regard to its impact on GDP; however, a domestic monetary policy shock was more effective at impacting on domestic inflation compared to the impact from South Africa.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2020
The political ecological economics of coal mining and water resources: a participatory economic valuation approach in Carolina, Mpumalanga
- Authors: Nzimande, Nqobile
- Date: 2020
- Subjects: Natural resources -- Management , Natural resources -- Management -- South Africa -- Carolina , Natural resources -- Valuation , Natural resources -- Valuation -- South Africa -- Carolina , Coal mines and mining -- Environmental aspects -- South Africa -- Carolina , Water-supply -- South Africa -- Carolina , Water-supply -- Government policy -- South Africa -- Carolina , Water conservation -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/167274 , vital:41463
- Description: Globally, resource economic valuation has traditionally focused on monetary and market-based methods. However, there has been a recent move towards more transdiciplinary methods that encourage civil participation in resource economic valuation studies with the aim of generating more site-specific and appropriate values which can potentially improve natural resource management decisions. With a focus on Carolina, this thesis investigated whether citizen based participatory approaches can result in more appropriate resource economic values that reflect the social environmental values in Carolina. A qualitative research approach was adopted for this research which incorporated questionnaires and semi-structured interviews. The research also adopted an inductive thematic analysis. The findings of the research showed that local scale stakeholders have different perceived values of natural resources. The research further showed that national scale resource governance institutions deal with issues of natural resource economic conflicts related to environmental policy and decision making. The study will contribute to deepening an understanding of the contribution that a natural resource economics assessment, or analysis can have on equitable, sustainable and efficient water resource management in the face of water-use contestation
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2020
- Authors: Nzimande, Nqobile
- Date: 2020
- Subjects: Natural resources -- Management , Natural resources -- Management -- South Africa -- Carolina , Natural resources -- Valuation , Natural resources -- Valuation -- South Africa -- Carolina , Coal mines and mining -- Environmental aspects -- South Africa -- Carolina , Water-supply -- South Africa -- Carolina , Water-supply -- Government policy -- South Africa -- Carolina , Water conservation -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/167274 , vital:41463
- Description: Globally, resource economic valuation has traditionally focused on monetary and market-based methods. However, there has been a recent move towards more transdiciplinary methods that encourage civil participation in resource economic valuation studies with the aim of generating more site-specific and appropriate values which can potentially improve natural resource management decisions. With a focus on Carolina, this thesis investigated whether citizen based participatory approaches can result in more appropriate resource economic values that reflect the social environmental values in Carolina. A qualitative research approach was adopted for this research which incorporated questionnaires and semi-structured interviews. The research also adopted an inductive thematic analysis. The findings of the research showed that local scale stakeholders have different perceived values of natural resources. The research further showed that national scale resource governance institutions deal with issues of natural resource economic conflicts related to environmental policy and decision making. The study will contribute to deepening an understanding of the contribution that a natural resource economics assessment, or analysis can have on equitable, sustainable and efficient water resource management in the face of water-use contestation
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2020
The predictive ability of the yield spread in timing the stock exchange: a South African case
- Authors: Cook, Jenna
- Date: 2020
- Subjects: Stocks -- Mathematical models , Probits , Johannesburg Stock Exchange
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/147025 , vital:38586
- Description: The use of the yield curve in forecasting economic recessions is well established in the literature. A new avenue of use for the yield curve has emerged in the form of using it to forecast bull and bear stock markets. This has the potential to change how investors manage portfolios. A dynamic market-timing strategy would allow investors to shift out of or in to stock markets based on the probability of bear stock market in the future. The relationship between the yield curve and the stock market is tested using an adapted probit model. This has proven positive with encouraging results for the US, India and Spain. This is tested for South Africa using the adapted probit model and the SA yield spread. Bear stock markets are identified on the JSE and forms part of the probit modelling process. Bear markets are identified using a six- and four-month criteria. As South Africa is a small, open and developing economy, the probit is also modelled using the US yield spread. The three probit models do not appear to track bear markets well. This is substantiated through the Henriksson-Merton parametric model test which tests for market timing ability. The results for the SA yield spread using both bear market criteria do not show market timing ability, however, the SA and US yield spread model does show potential market timing ability.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2020
- Authors: Cook, Jenna
- Date: 2020
- Subjects: Stocks -- Mathematical models , Probits , Johannesburg Stock Exchange
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/147025 , vital:38586
- Description: The use of the yield curve in forecasting economic recessions is well established in the literature. A new avenue of use for the yield curve has emerged in the form of using it to forecast bull and bear stock markets. This has the potential to change how investors manage portfolios. A dynamic market-timing strategy would allow investors to shift out of or in to stock markets based on the probability of bear stock market in the future. The relationship between the yield curve and the stock market is tested using an adapted probit model. This has proven positive with encouraging results for the US, India and Spain. This is tested for South Africa using the adapted probit model and the SA yield spread. Bear stock markets are identified on the JSE and forms part of the probit modelling process. Bear markets are identified using a six- and four-month criteria. As South Africa is a small, open and developing economy, the probit is also modelled using the US yield spread. The three probit models do not appear to track bear markets well. This is substantiated through the Henriksson-Merton parametric model test which tests for market timing ability. The results for the SA yield spread using both bear market criteria do not show market timing ability, however, the SA and US yield spread model does show potential market timing ability.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2020
The primacy of illicit financial flows (IFFs) in developing countries: a comparative study analysis of South Africa and China
- Authors: Mahlaba, Asande Cikizwa
- Date: 2020
- Subjects: Money -- Developing countries , Transfer pricing -- South Africa , Developing countries -- Economic conditions , Tax evasion -- China , Tax evasion -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/147435 , vital:38636
- Description: The main objective of this study was to question and investigate the primacy of illicit financial flows (IFFs) in developing countries, specifically focused on two countries namely China and South Africa. Africa is estimated to have lost approximately $1 trillion to IFFs over the last 50 years, which exceeds the financial assistance that these nations needed over the same period. For years. Africa has been the feeding ground for exploitation and resource plunder, and the narrative has always been Africa is underdeveloped because of this crime. Although this statement holds true in most African countries, what this paper seeks to do is to question whether capital flight, IFFs and more specifically tax evasion and tax haven activity are the reason for the deterioration of African economies or are IFFs perpetuated by economies with unsustainable growth paths. IFFs are an important factor when it comes to obstacles of economic growth. But are they the cause or effect? A very strong case can be made that they are the latter however, it is beyond the scope of this article to resolve this question. Its purpose is merely to assert that the question is a valid one and that presuming the answer could divert attention from the real question of economic development. This study contextualized the way in which IFFs are currently viewed in the world economic system according to the two approaches to development finance, and discussed modern monetary theory as an extension off these theories. Due to the nature of the study, the methodology employed is a case study approach between China and South Africa by means of extensive numerical and document analysis. Upon conducting this analysis on the primacy of illicit financial flows in developing countries there was difficulty in measuring IFFs. The reason for this is because IFFs have a range of estimates so it was very difficult to produce precise and accurate results. The key findings of this paper were that there seems to be some kind of parallel between developing countries with large volumes of illicit financial outflows, and a dependency these countries have on external debt. This means it seems that weak economies, that are highly dependent on external debt and have large amounts of this debt, seem to have the largest volumes of illicit financial outflows. Weak regulation, high levels of debt and liberalised trade markets seem to be contributing factors to the degree to which companies evade taxes and partake in tax haven activity in these regions. Another key finding was that in 2012, despite China being ranked number one in the the countries which have the largest amounts of outflows on average, it still managed to achieve large amounts growth in the last 20 years. Indicating that there is some form of indication that IFFs could be viewed as symptomatic of weak financial systems and weak economies, instead of IFFs being the core of the problem.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2020
- Authors: Mahlaba, Asande Cikizwa
- Date: 2020
- Subjects: Money -- Developing countries , Transfer pricing -- South Africa , Developing countries -- Economic conditions , Tax evasion -- China , Tax evasion -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/147435 , vital:38636
- Description: The main objective of this study was to question and investigate the primacy of illicit financial flows (IFFs) in developing countries, specifically focused on two countries namely China and South Africa. Africa is estimated to have lost approximately $1 trillion to IFFs over the last 50 years, which exceeds the financial assistance that these nations needed over the same period. For years. Africa has been the feeding ground for exploitation and resource plunder, and the narrative has always been Africa is underdeveloped because of this crime. Although this statement holds true in most African countries, what this paper seeks to do is to question whether capital flight, IFFs and more specifically tax evasion and tax haven activity are the reason for the deterioration of African economies or are IFFs perpetuated by economies with unsustainable growth paths. IFFs are an important factor when it comes to obstacles of economic growth. But are they the cause or effect? A very strong case can be made that they are the latter however, it is beyond the scope of this article to resolve this question. Its purpose is merely to assert that the question is a valid one and that presuming the answer could divert attention from the real question of economic development. This study contextualized the way in which IFFs are currently viewed in the world economic system according to the two approaches to development finance, and discussed modern monetary theory as an extension off these theories. Due to the nature of the study, the methodology employed is a case study approach between China and South Africa by means of extensive numerical and document analysis. Upon conducting this analysis on the primacy of illicit financial flows in developing countries there was difficulty in measuring IFFs. The reason for this is because IFFs have a range of estimates so it was very difficult to produce precise and accurate results. The key findings of this paper were that there seems to be some kind of parallel between developing countries with large volumes of illicit financial outflows, and a dependency these countries have on external debt. This means it seems that weak economies, that are highly dependent on external debt and have large amounts of this debt, seem to have the largest volumes of illicit financial outflows. Weak regulation, high levels of debt and liberalised trade markets seem to be contributing factors to the degree to which companies evade taxes and partake in tax haven activity in these regions. Another key finding was that in 2012, despite China being ranked number one in the the countries which have the largest amounts of outflows on average, it still managed to achieve large amounts growth in the last 20 years. Indicating that there is some form of indication that IFFs could be viewed as symptomatic of weak financial systems and weak economies, instead of IFFs being the core of the problem.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2020
The value of economic capital as an indicator to protect prospective and existing ordinary shareholders
- Authors: Chonzi, Tendai Day
- Date: 2020
- Subjects: Banks and banking -- Risk management -- South Africa , Financial services industry -- Risk management -- South Africa , ABSA Bank , FirstRand Limited , Nedbank , Standard Bank Limited , Capitec Bank (South Africa)
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/145807 , vital:38468
- Description: South Africans banking sector is one of the most dominating banking sectors in Africa. The banking sector is privately owned and involves a lot of different stakeholders, who risk losing their investments. One of the stakeholders who are the bottom of the repayment chain are existing ordinary shareholders because they risk losing all their investment in the result of bankruptcy, liquidity crises or the inability of the bank to repay their shareholders. Regulators in the banking sector only protect the depositor and the stability of the banking sector but not ordinary shareholders. An internal supervisory measure called economic capital has recently received more attention because of its aim to protect ordinary shareholders and thus, existing and prospective shareholders can use its value as a protective indicator. Economic theory assumes that the higher the value of economic capital (the lower the economic capital shortfall), the lower the return on investment for existing ordinary shareholders. The aforementioned shows a trade-off between protection (economic capital) and returns. Literature by Larsson (2009) further suggests that banks are always reluctant with implementing internal measures to protect themselves because of the good regulatory regime in the sector, some banks think that they are “too big to fail” and the fact that the reserve banks are always on the standby as a bailout. The purpose of this research is to examine which of the top five commercial banks in South African actively protect their existing ordinary shareholders using the value of economic capital and possibly attract prospective ordinary shareholders, locally and internationally. The banks under study are Absa, Capitec, FirstRand, Nedbank and Standard Bank over ten years, starting from June 2009 to May 2019 and in monthly frequency. The observations totalled 120 and two models that are under the Return Series Method were in used, namely; Historical Simulation Model and Variance Covariance Model. Both models, although they were small deviations in the value of economic capital, concluded that Standard Bank protects its existing ordinary shareholders the most, followed by FirstRand, then Absa and last is Nedbank. Capitec was the only bank, after one financial shock that could not protect its existing ordinary shareholders. Moreover, evidence in the study shows a trade-off between economic capital and return on investment in the case of Capitec and Standard Bank. Standard Bank had the highest value of economic capital and second-lowest return on investment, while Capitec had the highest return on investment and lowest value of economic capital. The significant policy implication of the research is that financial institution needs to strike a balance between protection and profits; thus, a way of protecting various stakeholders. Financial shocks have proven that regulatory measures are weak and they are is need for internal measures (economic capital) which indicate how financial institution can sustain in such cases.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2020
- Authors: Chonzi, Tendai Day
- Date: 2020
- Subjects: Banks and banking -- Risk management -- South Africa , Financial services industry -- Risk management -- South Africa , ABSA Bank , FirstRand Limited , Nedbank , Standard Bank Limited , Capitec Bank (South Africa)
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/145807 , vital:38468
- Description: South Africans banking sector is one of the most dominating banking sectors in Africa. The banking sector is privately owned and involves a lot of different stakeholders, who risk losing their investments. One of the stakeholders who are the bottom of the repayment chain are existing ordinary shareholders because they risk losing all their investment in the result of bankruptcy, liquidity crises or the inability of the bank to repay their shareholders. Regulators in the banking sector only protect the depositor and the stability of the banking sector but not ordinary shareholders. An internal supervisory measure called economic capital has recently received more attention because of its aim to protect ordinary shareholders and thus, existing and prospective shareholders can use its value as a protective indicator. Economic theory assumes that the higher the value of economic capital (the lower the economic capital shortfall), the lower the return on investment for existing ordinary shareholders. The aforementioned shows a trade-off between protection (economic capital) and returns. Literature by Larsson (2009) further suggests that banks are always reluctant with implementing internal measures to protect themselves because of the good regulatory regime in the sector, some banks think that they are “too big to fail” and the fact that the reserve banks are always on the standby as a bailout. The purpose of this research is to examine which of the top five commercial banks in South African actively protect their existing ordinary shareholders using the value of economic capital and possibly attract prospective ordinary shareholders, locally and internationally. The banks under study are Absa, Capitec, FirstRand, Nedbank and Standard Bank over ten years, starting from June 2009 to May 2019 and in monthly frequency. The observations totalled 120 and two models that are under the Return Series Method were in used, namely; Historical Simulation Model and Variance Covariance Model. Both models, although they were small deviations in the value of economic capital, concluded that Standard Bank protects its existing ordinary shareholders the most, followed by FirstRand, then Absa and last is Nedbank. Capitec was the only bank, after one financial shock that could not protect its existing ordinary shareholders. Moreover, evidence in the study shows a trade-off between economic capital and return on investment in the case of Capitec and Standard Bank. Standard Bank had the highest value of economic capital and second-lowest return on investment, while Capitec had the highest return on investment and lowest value of economic capital. The significant policy implication of the research is that financial institution needs to strike a balance between protection and profits; thus, a way of protecting various stakeholders. Financial shocks have proven that regulatory measures are weak and they are is need for internal measures (economic capital) which indicate how financial institution can sustain in such cases.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2020
Volatility spillovers and determinants of contagion: a case of BRICS equity and foreign exchange markets
- Authors: Nyopa, Tšepiso
- Date: 2020
- Subjects: Uncatalogued
- Language: English
- Type: thesis , text , Masters , MCOM
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/164590 , vital:41146
- Description: This study investigates the relationship between the equity markets and foreign exchange markets in Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS) using Diebold-Yilmaz spillover index. The study also identifies macroeconomic fundamentals that can enhance contagion in these markets using panel dynamic ordinary least squares regressions. The study spans the period from 1997 to 2018. We find that there are interdependencies between BRICS equity markets and foreign exchange markets, except for China, whose markets are relatively isolated from other BRICS markets. Brazil is the largest contributor of volatility spillovers to other BRICS markets. The spillover indexes also indicate significant increases in volatility spillovers associated with turmoil periods in domestic and global markets. This provides evidence for contagion during crises periods. We also find that fundamental indicators and trade linkages are major drivers of increased volatility spillovers (contagion) in BRICS; and global risk indicators, such as VIX and oil prices, explain volatility spillovers in BRICS. These results hold across both equities and foreign exchange markets. , Thesis (MSc)--Rhodes University, Faculty of Commerce, Economics and Economic History, 2020
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2020
- Authors: Nyopa, Tšepiso
- Date: 2020
- Subjects: Uncatalogued
- Language: English
- Type: thesis , text , Masters , MCOM
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/164590 , vital:41146
- Description: This study investigates the relationship between the equity markets and foreign exchange markets in Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS) using Diebold-Yilmaz spillover index. The study also identifies macroeconomic fundamentals that can enhance contagion in these markets using panel dynamic ordinary least squares regressions. The study spans the period from 1997 to 2018. We find that there are interdependencies between BRICS equity markets and foreign exchange markets, except for China, whose markets are relatively isolated from other BRICS markets. Brazil is the largest contributor of volatility spillovers to other BRICS markets. The spillover indexes also indicate significant increases in volatility spillovers associated with turmoil periods in domestic and global markets. This provides evidence for contagion during crises periods. We also find that fundamental indicators and trade linkages are major drivers of increased volatility spillovers (contagion) in BRICS; and global risk indicators, such as VIX and oil prices, explain volatility spillovers in BRICS. These results hold across both equities and foreign exchange markets. , Thesis (MSc)--Rhodes University, Faculty of Commerce, Economics and Economic History, 2020
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2020
Water footprint and economic water productivity of citrus production: a comparison across three river valleys in the Eastern Cape Milands
- Authors: Danckwerts, Lindsay
- Date: 2020
- Subjects: Water in agriculture -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape , Water consumption -- South Africa -- Economic aspects , Water supply, Agricultural -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape , Citrus fruit industry -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/141064 , vital:37941
- Description: South Africa is a semi-arid, water scarce country. The nation has suffered a spate of severe droughts in several regions in recent years, which have significantly impacted the country’s economy. Global warming, population growth, and rising demand for water intensive products are only expected to intensify water supply problems in the future. The agricultural industry is the largest consumer of water in South Africa, accounting for the majority of total surface water withdrawals. As such, the agricultural sector is faced with complex and difficult management decisions in the face of a potential water supply crisis. The water footprint (WF) and economic water productivity (EWP) of citrus production across three river catchments located in the Eastern Cape Midlands (situated in the vicinity of the settlements of Adelaide, Cookhouse and Fort Beaufort respectively) were calculated and compared. In the long-term average (LTA), blue WF weighted across all three regions accounted for the greatest proportion of total WF (53%), followed in turn by green and grey WF (30% and 17% respectively). LTA blue and grey WF was lowest in the Adelaide region, while green WF was smallest in the Fort Beaufort region. Blue, green and grey WF were found to be greatest in the Cookhouse region. LTA EWP was greatest in the Fort Beaufort region and smallest in the Adelaide region. Of all variety groups assessed, lemons were found to have the lowest LTA crop water use and blue, green and grey WF when considering citrus production averaged across all three study regions. Satsumas has the second smallest LTA blue, green and grey WF, followed by navels, mid-season mandarins, and finally, late mandarins. Lemons had the greatest LTA EWP of all varieties, followed in turn by satsumas, late mandarins, mid-season mandarins and navels. Blue crop water use was consistently lowest in the designated wet year and highest in the dry year. However, this same trend was not necessarily true for WF findings. WF and EWP are useful indicators of water use which can be used to help guide complex water management decisions. However, these indicators are single-factor productivity measures applied in a multi-factor environment. It is therefore important that factors outside of water use are considered when making water management decisions. Moreover, it is important to examine the impact that the various components making up WF and EWP have on the resultant figures, rather than merely considering the superficial results themselves. Factors such as CWU, orchard maturity, crop choice, potential yield, climate, irrigation system, economic return, water allocation and water availability should all be taken into account.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2020
- Authors: Danckwerts, Lindsay
- Date: 2020
- Subjects: Water in agriculture -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape , Water consumption -- South Africa -- Economic aspects , Water supply, Agricultural -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape , Citrus fruit industry -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/141064 , vital:37941
- Description: South Africa is a semi-arid, water scarce country. The nation has suffered a spate of severe droughts in several regions in recent years, which have significantly impacted the country’s economy. Global warming, population growth, and rising demand for water intensive products are only expected to intensify water supply problems in the future. The agricultural industry is the largest consumer of water in South Africa, accounting for the majority of total surface water withdrawals. As such, the agricultural sector is faced with complex and difficult management decisions in the face of a potential water supply crisis. The water footprint (WF) and economic water productivity (EWP) of citrus production across three river catchments located in the Eastern Cape Midlands (situated in the vicinity of the settlements of Adelaide, Cookhouse and Fort Beaufort respectively) were calculated and compared. In the long-term average (LTA), blue WF weighted across all three regions accounted for the greatest proportion of total WF (53%), followed in turn by green and grey WF (30% and 17% respectively). LTA blue and grey WF was lowest in the Adelaide region, while green WF was smallest in the Fort Beaufort region. Blue, green and grey WF were found to be greatest in the Cookhouse region. LTA EWP was greatest in the Fort Beaufort region and smallest in the Adelaide region. Of all variety groups assessed, lemons were found to have the lowest LTA crop water use and blue, green and grey WF when considering citrus production averaged across all three study regions. Satsumas has the second smallest LTA blue, green and grey WF, followed by navels, mid-season mandarins, and finally, late mandarins. Lemons had the greatest LTA EWP of all varieties, followed in turn by satsumas, late mandarins, mid-season mandarins and navels. Blue crop water use was consistently lowest in the designated wet year and highest in the dry year. However, this same trend was not necessarily true for WF findings. WF and EWP are useful indicators of water use which can be used to help guide complex water management decisions. However, these indicators are single-factor productivity measures applied in a multi-factor environment. It is therefore important that factors outside of water use are considered when making water management decisions. Moreover, it is important to examine the impact that the various components making up WF and EWP have on the resultant figures, rather than merely considering the superficial results themselves. Factors such as CWU, orchard maturity, crop choice, potential yield, climate, irrigation system, economic return, water allocation and water availability should all be taken into account.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2020
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