Volatility transmission across South African financial markets: does the bull – bear distinction matter?
- Authors: Jaramba, Toddy
- Date: 2011
- Subjects: Finance -- South Africa , Financial institutions -- South Africa , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Portfolio management -- South Africa , Stock exchanges -- South Africa , Foreign exchange -- Mathematical models , Bond market -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1106 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1013396
- Description: The volatility transmission in financial markets has important implications for investment decision making, portfolio diversification and overall macroeconomic stability. This paper analyses volatility transmission across four South African financial markets that is the stock, bond, money and foreign exchange markets, using daily data for the period 2000-2010. It also shows whether the volatilities in the SA financial markets present a different behaviour in bull and bear market phases. The effects of the international markets volatility to the local markets volatility was also looked at in this study. To obtain estimates of market volatility, the study experimented with various volatility models that include the GARCH, EGARCH and TARCH. To examine volatility interaction and the transmission of volatility shocks, a VAR model was estimated together with block exogeneity, impulse response and variance decomposition. The study found that there is limited volatility transmission across the SA financial markets. The study also found that the money market is the most exogenous of all markets since the other three financial markets volatility is insignificant to the money market (see impulse response results). For the bond market, volatility transmission was characterized with a decreasing trend. With regard to international markets volatility, it concluded that, the shocks in the international markets will eventually affect the movement in the local markets. The results also highlighted that, world and local markets are important in accelerating the volatility transmission in SA financial markets depending on whether they are in their bull or bear phases. In the case of South Africa, the study found that volatility transmission across markets is higher during bear market periods than bull market periods. Basing on the study results which show that the volatility transmission is limited across SA financial markets, the implication to local and international investors is that there is a greater potential for diversifying risk by investing in different South African financial markets.
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- Date Issued: 2011
Financial instability in South Africa : trends and interactions within the financial markets
- Authors: Shikwambana, Jamela
- Date: 2007 , 2013-08-06
- Subjects: Finance -- South Africa , Financial institutions -- South Africa , Economic stabilization -- South Africa , Stock exchanges -- South Africa , Stocks -- Prices -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Equilibrium (Economics)
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1043 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1005911 , Finance -- South Africa , Financial institutions -- South Africa , Economic stabilization -- South Africa , Stock exchanges -- South Africa , Stocks -- Prices -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Equilibrium (Economics)
- Description: This study seeks to investigate the trends and interactions of market volatility as a source of instability in the South African financial markets. Financial instability can be manifested in the form of banking and currency crisis, institutional failures and extreme asset price volatility. This study, however, focuses on a single aspect of financial instability - asset price volatility. Asset price volatility reflects changes in market expectations as investors react to such changes, and thus on its own is not necessarily a source of instability. However, volatility spillovers can propagate volatility shocks across the market, increasing the risk of widespread instability. Using a combination of graphical and trend analysis as well as more formal estimation techniques, the study examined volatility in the stock, money and foreign exchange markets. To obtain estimates of market volatility, the study experimented with various volatility models that include the GARCH, TARCH and EGARCH. An analysis of volatility interactions and the transmission of volatility shocks across the market is crucial to understanding financial instability. To examine volatility interaction and the transmission of volatility shocks, a VAR model was estimated. This framework allowed us to examine the propagation of shocks across the markets. Volatility in the financial markets was found to be highly persistent and in the case of exchange rates, volatility was also characterised by an increasing trend. Significant linkages between the financial markets were found. The links also extended to the volatility relationship as evidenced by significant volatility spillovers across the markets. While volatility spillovers from the money market were found in the stock market and the foreign exchange market, no volatility spillovers from these markets were found in the money market. Thus the money market was identified as the major source of volatility spillovers and shocks in the financial markets. These results highlighted the role of monetary policy in the financial system, specifically the need to make monetary policy stable and predictable to ensure that interest rate shocks are not an additional source of instability. , KMBT_363 , Adobe Acrobat 9.54 Paper Capture Plug-in
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- Date Issued: 2007