The impact of macroeconomic and financial factors on the performance of the housing property market in South Africa
- Authors: Kwangware, Debra
- Date: 2009
- Subjects: Microeconomics , Housing -- South Africa , Housing -- Prices -- South Africa , Real property -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1042 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1005641 , Microeconomics , Housing -- South Africa , Housing -- Prices -- South Africa , Real property -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa
- Description: This study exammes the impact of macroeconomic and financial variables on the performance of the housing property market in South Africa using monthly data for the period January 1996 to June 2008. Orthogonalised and non-orthogonalised house price returns and real estate returns are utilised as proxies for the housing property market in separate models. Three main issues were empirically analysed in relation to the linkage between selected variables and the housing property market. The first aspect examined the relationship between selected macroeconomic and financial factors and property returns. Secondly, the study examined the influence that a unit shock to each variable has on property returns over a period of time. The third aspect focused on determining the proportion of property returns variation that results from changes in the macroeconomic and financial variables. VAR modelling was thus adopted to empirically analyse these three aspects. The results reveal that house price returns are influenced by most of the macroeconomic and financial variables used in this study. Specifically, the real effective exchange rate, interest rate spread and manufacturing production positively impact on house price returns while the domestic interest rate, the dividend yield and expected inflation have a negative effect. Furthermore, manufacturing production has a lagged effect on house price returns while the real effective exchange rate and domestic interest rate have a contemporaneous effect. Real estate returns are not influenced by most of the variables except for the domestic interest rate and dividend yield which have a negative effect.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2009
- Authors: Kwangware, Debra
- Date: 2009
- Subjects: Microeconomics , Housing -- South Africa , Housing -- Prices -- South Africa , Real property -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1042 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1005641 , Microeconomics , Housing -- South Africa , Housing -- Prices -- South Africa , Real property -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa
- Description: This study exammes the impact of macroeconomic and financial variables on the performance of the housing property market in South Africa using monthly data for the period January 1996 to June 2008. Orthogonalised and non-orthogonalised house price returns and real estate returns are utilised as proxies for the housing property market in separate models. Three main issues were empirically analysed in relation to the linkage between selected variables and the housing property market. The first aspect examined the relationship between selected macroeconomic and financial factors and property returns. Secondly, the study examined the influence that a unit shock to each variable has on property returns over a period of time. The third aspect focused on determining the proportion of property returns variation that results from changes in the macroeconomic and financial variables. VAR modelling was thus adopted to empirically analyse these three aspects. The results reveal that house price returns are influenced by most of the macroeconomic and financial variables used in this study. Specifically, the real effective exchange rate, interest rate spread and manufacturing production positively impact on house price returns while the domestic interest rate, the dividend yield and expected inflation have a negative effect. Furthermore, manufacturing production has a lagged effect on house price returns while the real effective exchange rate and domestic interest rate have a contemporaneous effect. Real estate returns are not influenced by most of the variables except for the domestic interest rate and dividend yield which have a negative effect.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2009
The implementation of the new capital accord (BASEL II) : a comparative study of South Africa, Switzerland, Brazil and the United States
- Makwiramiti, Anthony Munyaradzi
- Authors: Makwiramiti, Anthony Munyaradzi
- Date: 2009
- Subjects: Basel II (2004) , Banks and banking, International , Banks and banking, International -- State supervision , Capital market -- Government policy , Bank capital , Banking law , Financial institutions
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:983 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002717 , Basel II (2004) , Banks and banking, International , Banks and banking, International -- State supervision , Capital market -- Government policy , Bank capital , Banking law , Financial institutions
- Description: The international banking environment has become potentially riskier because of the recent developments in financial services and products which have changed the way banks do their day to day business. Imposing minimum capital adequacy regulations is one way of fostering stability in the global banking system. A number of countries have started to implement the new capital adequacy rules (Basel II) following the worldwide consensus among central bankers that bank‟s capital levels should be regulated to enhance global financial stability. In this study, through the comparative analysis of the general implementation issues it was established that emerging countries apply all Basel II rules uniformly across all the banking institutions that operate in their territories. Developed countries apply these rules only to large and internationally active banks and because of the diversity of their banking industries, they also apply domestically modified rules to the domestically based banks. For the successful implementation of Basel II, properly planning, devoting bank resources and making necessary legislative amendments are prerequisites for incorporating Basel II into the regulatory framework for any country. The study concludes that the current global financial turmoil continues to pose a threat to the effectiveness of the Basel II rules which are aimed at achieving global financial stability.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2009
- Authors: Makwiramiti, Anthony Munyaradzi
- Date: 2009
- Subjects: Basel II (2004) , Banks and banking, International , Banks and banking, International -- State supervision , Capital market -- Government policy , Bank capital , Banking law , Financial institutions
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:983 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002717 , Basel II (2004) , Banks and banking, International , Banks and banking, International -- State supervision , Capital market -- Government policy , Bank capital , Banking law , Financial institutions
- Description: The international banking environment has become potentially riskier because of the recent developments in financial services and products which have changed the way banks do their day to day business. Imposing minimum capital adequacy regulations is one way of fostering stability in the global banking system. A number of countries have started to implement the new capital adequacy rules (Basel II) following the worldwide consensus among central bankers that bank‟s capital levels should be regulated to enhance global financial stability. In this study, through the comparative analysis of the general implementation issues it was established that emerging countries apply all Basel II rules uniformly across all the banking institutions that operate in their territories. Developed countries apply these rules only to large and internationally active banks and because of the diversity of their banking industries, they also apply domestically modified rules to the domestically based banks. For the successful implementation of Basel II, properly planning, devoting bank resources and making necessary legislative amendments are prerequisites for incorporating Basel II into the regulatory framework for any country. The study concludes that the current global financial turmoil continues to pose a threat to the effectiveness of the Basel II rules which are aimed at achieving global financial stability.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2009
The relationship between accounting choices and share prices : a study of South African listed companies
- Authors: Bunting, Mark Bevan
- Date: 2009
- Subjects: Financial statements -- South Africa , Accounting -- South Africa , Managerial accounting -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:989 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002724 , Financial statements -- South Africa , Accounting -- South Africa , Managerial accounting -- South Africa
- Description: It is widely assumed that the managers of companies behave in a self-interested and opportunistic manner when making the discretionary accounting choices that are applied in the preparation of published financial reports. Empirical research has found evidence for this in the United States, Britain, Spain, France and Australia, amongst other countries. There has, however, been no prior work of a similar nature in a South African context. The purpose of this study is to extend this body of work by examining the relationship between a number of potentially opportunistic (profit-increasing, income-smoothing and solvencyimproving) accounting choices made by the managers of South African listed companies, and growth rates in the share prices of those companies. Data in respect of thirty-nine medium-sized South African listed companies are analysed for evidence of the expected positive relationship between opportunistic accounting choices and share price growth. No evidence is found for this relationship. This may be due to limitations in the research design, inadequacies in the interpretation of the agency theory from which the hypotheses are developed, or a combination of both. Refinements in the research design or a re-interpretation of the theory may be successful in addressing these matters as part of future research efforts.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2009
- Authors: Bunting, Mark Bevan
- Date: 2009
- Subjects: Financial statements -- South Africa , Accounting -- South Africa , Managerial accounting -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:989 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002724 , Financial statements -- South Africa , Accounting -- South Africa , Managerial accounting -- South Africa
- Description: It is widely assumed that the managers of companies behave in a self-interested and opportunistic manner when making the discretionary accounting choices that are applied in the preparation of published financial reports. Empirical research has found evidence for this in the United States, Britain, Spain, France and Australia, amongst other countries. There has, however, been no prior work of a similar nature in a South African context. The purpose of this study is to extend this body of work by examining the relationship between a number of potentially opportunistic (profit-increasing, income-smoothing and solvencyimproving) accounting choices made by the managers of South African listed companies, and growth rates in the share prices of those companies. Data in respect of thirty-nine medium-sized South African listed companies are analysed for evidence of the expected positive relationship between opportunistic accounting choices and share price growth. No evidence is found for this relationship. This may be due to limitations in the research design, inadequacies in the interpretation of the agency theory from which the hypotheses are developed, or a combination of both. Refinements in the research design or a re-interpretation of the theory may be successful in addressing these matters as part of future research efforts.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2009
A comparison between the South African "source rules" in relation to income tax and the "permanent establishment rules" as contained in double taxation agreements
- Authors: Fourie, Leonie
- Date: 2008
- Subjects: Income tax -- South Africa , Income tax -- Law and legislation -- South Africa , Double taxation -- South Africa , Business enterprises -- Taxation -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:905 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1008203
- Description: South Africa's right to tax the income of a non-resident is determined in terms of the South African "source rules" established by court decisions in relation to the imposition of tax in terms of the Income Tax Act. Unless a non-resident's income is captured by the South African "source rules" (on the basis that hi slits income is derived from a South African source), South Africa would have no right to tax such income, even if such non-resident creates a permanent establishment in South Africa by performing business activities within South Africa which could be considered essential (but not dominant) in nature. In such scenario the activities performed by the non-resident in South Africa may utilise the natural resources and the infrastructure of South Africa, but the South African fiscus would be deprived of the right to any tax revenues attributable to the income produced partly by such activities within South Africa. The South African "source rules" refer only to the main or dominant activities giving rise to the income for the purpose of determining the source of such income (and accordingly the right to tax such income). On the other hand, the "permanent establishment rules" as set out under the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development Model Tax Convention on Income and on Capital refer to all the taxpayer's essential business activities for the purpose of determining whether or not such activities create a pennanent establishment. The result of the narrow nature of the South African "source rules" is that, under certain circumstances, the South African fiscus would not necessarily be granted the right to tax all income produced partly within South Africa. The research demonstrated that incorporating the principles underlying the "pennanent establishment rules" into South African legislation would be a reasonable and logical solution to the problem of detennining the source of income. In so doing, the South African "source rules" would determine the source of income, and consequently South Africa's taxing rights, with reference to the essential business activities giving rise to such income. In such case South Africa would be afforded the right to tax the income of a non-resident in the event that it performs any of its essential business activities within South Africa, albeit not the dominant or main activities giving rise to the income.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2008
- Authors: Fourie, Leonie
- Date: 2008
- Subjects: Income tax -- South Africa , Income tax -- Law and legislation -- South Africa , Double taxation -- South Africa , Business enterprises -- Taxation -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:905 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1008203
- Description: South Africa's right to tax the income of a non-resident is determined in terms of the South African "source rules" established by court decisions in relation to the imposition of tax in terms of the Income Tax Act. Unless a non-resident's income is captured by the South African "source rules" (on the basis that hi slits income is derived from a South African source), South Africa would have no right to tax such income, even if such non-resident creates a permanent establishment in South Africa by performing business activities within South Africa which could be considered essential (but not dominant) in nature. In such scenario the activities performed by the non-resident in South Africa may utilise the natural resources and the infrastructure of South Africa, but the South African fiscus would be deprived of the right to any tax revenues attributable to the income produced partly by such activities within South Africa. The South African "source rules" refer only to the main or dominant activities giving rise to the income for the purpose of determining the source of such income (and accordingly the right to tax such income). On the other hand, the "permanent establishment rules" as set out under the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development Model Tax Convention on Income and on Capital refer to all the taxpayer's essential business activities for the purpose of determining whether or not such activities create a pennanent establishment. The result of the narrow nature of the South African "source rules" is that, under certain circumstances, the South African fiscus would not necessarily be granted the right to tax all income produced partly within South Africa. The research demonstrated that incorporating the principles underlying the "pennanent establishment rules" into South African legislation would be a reasonable and logical solution to the problem of detennining the source of income. In so doing, the South African "source rules" would determine the source of income, and consequently South Africa's taxing rights, with reference to the essential business activities giving rise to such income. In such case South Africa would be afforded the right to tax the income of a non-resident in the event that it performs any of its essential business activities within South Africa, albeit not the dominant or main activities giving rise to the income.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2008
An analysis of exchange rate pass-through to prices in South Africa
- Authors: Karoro, Tapiwa Daniel
- Date: 2008
- Subjects: Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Inflation (Finance) -- South Africa , Prices -- South Africa , Banks and banking -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic policy
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:953 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002687 , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Inflation (Finance) -- South Africa , Prices -- South Africa , Banks and banking -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic policy
- Description: The fact that South Africa has a floating exchange rate policy as well as an open trade policy leaves the country’s import, producer and consumer prices susceptible to the effects of exchange rate movements. Given the central role that inflation targeting occupies in South Africa’s monetary policy, it becomes necessary to determine the nature of influence of exchange rate changes on domestic prices. To this end, this thesis examines the magnitude and speed of exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) to import, producer and consumer prices in South Africa. Furthermore, it explores whether the direction and size of changes in the exchange rate have different pass-through effects on import prices, that is, whether the exchange rate pass-through is symmetric or asymmetric. The paper uses monthly data covering the period January 1980 to December 2005. In investigating ERPT, two main stages are identified. The initial stage is the transmission of fluctuations in the exchange rate to import prices, while the second-stage entails the pass-through of changes in import prices to producer and consumer prices. The first stage is estimated using the Johansen (1991) and (1995) cointegration techniques and a vector error correction model (VECM). The second stage pass-through is determined by estimating impulse response and variance decomposition functions, as well as conducting block exogeneity Wald tests. The study follows Wickremasinghe and Silvapulle’s (2004) approach in estimating pass-through asymmetry with respect to appreciations and depreciations. In addition, the thesis adapts the analytical framework of Wickremasinghe and Silvapulle (2004) to investigate the pass-through of large and small changes in the exchange rate to import prices. The results suggest that ERPT in South Africa is incomplete but relatively high. Furthermore, ERPT is found to be higher in periods of rand depreciation than appreciation which supports the binding quantity constraint theory. There is also some evidence that pass-through is higher in periods of small changes than large changes in the exchange rate, which supports the menu cost theory when invoices are denominated in the exporters’ currency.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2008
- Authors: Karoro, Tapiwa Daniel
- Date: 2008
- Subjects: Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Inflation (Finance) -- South Africa , Prices -- South Africa , Banks and banking -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic policy
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:953 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002687 , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Inflation (Finance) -- South Africa , Prices -- South Africa , Banks and banking -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic policy
- Description: The fact that South Africa has a floating exchange rate policy as well as an open trade policy leaves the country’s import, producer and consumer prices susceptible to the effects of exchange rate movements. Given the central role that inflation targeting occupies in South Africa’s monetary policy, it becomes necessary to determine the nature of influence of exchange rate changes on domestic prices. To this end, this thesis examines the magnitude and speed of exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) to import, producer and consumer prices in South Africa. Furthermore, it explores whether the direction and size of changes in the exchange rate have different pass-through effects on import prices, that is, whether the exchange rate pass-through is symmetric or asymmetric. The paper uses monthly data covering the period January 1980 to December 2005. In investigating ERPT, two main stages are identified. The initial stage is the transmission of fluctuations in the exchange rate to import prices, while the second-stage entails the pass-through of changes in import prices to producer and consumer prices. The first stage is estimated using the Johansen (1991) and (1995) cointegration techniques and a vector error correction model (VECM). The second stage pass-through is determined by estimating impulse response and variance decomposition functions, as well as conducting block exogeneity Wald tests. The study follows Wickremasinghe and Silvapulle’s (2004) approach in estimating pass-through asymmetry with respect to appreciations and depreciations. In addition, the thesis adapts the analytical framework of Wickremasinghe and Silvapulle (2004) to investigate the pass-through of large and small changes in the exchange rate to import prices. The results suggest that ERPT in South Africa is incomplete but relatively high. Furthermore, ERPT is found to be higher in periods of rand depreciation than appreciation which supports the binding quantity constraint theory. There is also some evidence that pass-through is higher in periods of small changes than large changes in the exchange rate, which supports the menu cost theory when invoices are denominated in the exporters’ currency.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2008
An appraisal of basic infrastructural service delivery and community participation at the local level a case study of three municipalities in the Eastern Cape
- Authors: Mamba, Bonginkosi
- Date: 2008
- Subjects: Municipal services -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape Case studies , Housing policy -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape Case studies , Housing -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape Case studies , Local government -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape Case studies
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:958 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002692 , Municipal services -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape Case studies , Housing policy -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape Case studies , Housing -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape Case studies , Local government -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape Case studies
- Description: Housing provision plays a vital role in meeting basic needs. Dwellings provide the security required for basic functioning and are thus essential for both human development and the alleviation of poverty. This study examines the levels and quality of basic infrastructural service delivery (electricity, water and sanitation) at local government level, focusing on housing. The local government areas studied include Grahamstown Fort Beaufort and Duncan Village. This was done for the purposes of analyzing the effectiveness of the existing housing policy with regard to the adequacy of scale, its developmental logic, implementation and coordination. Justification for basic infrastructural service delivery is based on the Basic Needs Approach [BNA] which forms the cornerstone of the World Bank’s delivery framework. The paper makes use of two methods: firstly, secondary sources are used to provide an impression of the broad policy framework focusing around basic service delivery with housing as the centrepiece. Specific attention is thus given to Integrated Development Plans (IDPs) as this is the level of policy-making responsible for the delivery of these services to communities. Secondly, previously un-analysed data drawn from a household social exclusion survey (2005-2006) conducted in three Eastern Cape municipalities (Buffalo City, Makana and Nkonkobe – representing respectively urban, small town, and rural areas) are evaluated. The data are analysed two ways – graphically and through a regression analysis – to test four hypotheses regarding basic service delivery. Graphical analysis demonstrates that services differ according to housing type and location. It was found that brick houses seem more likely to have better basic services than either shacks or mud dwellings. The results also show that there are inequalities in the provision of certain basic services such as water and sanitation between Duncan Village and Grahamstown. Overall, the results of this study show that government is still faced with major challenges in addressing housing backlogs.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2008
- Authors: Mamba, Bonginkosi
- Date: 2008
- Subjects: Municipal services -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape Case studies , Housing policy -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape Case studies , Housing -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape Case studies , Local government -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape Case studies
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:958 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002692 , Municipal services -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape Case studies , Housing policy -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape Case studies , Housing -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape Case studies , Local government -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape Case studies
- Description: Housing provision plays a vital role in meeting basic needs. Dwellings provide the security required for basic functioning and are thus essential for both human development and the alleviation of poverty. This study examines the levels and quality of basic infrastructural service delivery (electricity, water and sanitation) at local government level, focusing on housing. The local government areas studied include Grahamstown Fort Beaufort and Duncan Village. This was done for the purposes of analyzing the effectiveness of the existing housing policy with regard to the adequacy of scale, its developmental logic, implementation and coordination. Justification for basic infrastructural service delivery is based on the Basic Needs Approach [BNA] which forms the cornerstone of the World Bank’s delivery framework. The paper makes use of two methods: firstly, secondary sources are used to provide an impression of the broad policy framework focusing around basic service delivery with housing as the centrepiece. Specific attention is thus given to Integrated Development Plans (IDPs) as this is the level of policy-making responsible for the delivery of these services to communities. Secondly, previously un-analysed data drawn from a household social exclusion survey (2005-2006) conducted in three Eastern Cape municipalities (Buffalo City, Makana and Nkonkobe – representing respectively urban, small town, and rural areas) are evaluated. The data are analysed two ways – graphically and through a regression analysis – to test four hypotheses regarding basic service delivery. Graphical analysis demonstrates that services differ according to housing type and location. It was found that brick houses seem more likely to have better basic services than either shacks or mud dwellings. The results also show that there are inequalities in the provision of certain basic services such as water and sanitation between Duncan Village and Grahamstown. Overall, the results of this study show that government is still faced with major challenges in addressing housing backlogs.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2008
An empirical analysis of the long-run comovement, dynamic returns linkages and volatility transmission between the world major and the South African stock markets
- Authors: Chinzara, Zivanemoyo
- Date: 2008
- Subjects: Stock exchanges -- South Africa , Globalization -- Economic aspects -- South Africa , International economic relations , Portfolio management -- South Africa , Monetary policy -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:970 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002704 , Stock exchanges -- South Africa , Globalization -- Economic aspects -- South Africa , International economic relations , Portfolio management -- South Africa , Monetary policy -- South Africa
- Description: The international linkages of stock markets have important implications for cost of capital and portfolio diversification. Recent trends in globalization, financial liberalization and financial innovation raises questions with regard to whether African stock markets are being integrated into world equity markets. This study examines the extent to which the South African (SA) equity market is integrated into the world equity markets using daily data for the period 1995-2007. The study is divided into three main parts, each looking at the different ways in which integration can be considered. The first investigates whether there is long run comovement between the SA and the major global equity markets. Both bivariate and multivariate Johansen (1988) and Johansen and Juselius (1990) cointegration approaches were utilised. Vector Error Correction Models (VECMs) are then estimated for portfolios which show evidence of cointegration. The second part analyses returns linkages using the Vector Autoregressive (VAR), block exogeneity, impulse response and variance decomposition. The third part examines the behaviour of volatility and volatility linkages among the stock markets. Firstly volatility is analysed using the GARCH, EGARCH and GJR GARCH. Simultaneously, the hypothesis that investors receive a premium for investing in more risky stock markets is explored using the GARCH-in mean. The long term trend of volatility is also examined. Volatility linkages are then analysed using the VAR, block exogeneity, impulse response and variance decomposition. The first part established that no bivariate cointegration exists between the SA and any of the stock markets being studied, implying that pairwise portfolio diversification is potentially worthwhile for SA portfolio managers. However, multivariate cointegration exists for some portfolios, with the US, UK, Germany and SA showing evidence of error correction for some of these portfolios. Findings on return linkages is that there are significant returns linkages among the markets, with the US and SA being the most exogenous and most endogenous respectively. Findings regarding volatility are that the volatility in all the markets is inherently asymmetric and that except for the US there is no risk premium in any of the markets. The long term trend of volatility in all the stock markets was found to be relatively stable. The final finding was that significant volatility linkages exist among the markets, with the US being the most exogenous and SA and China showing evidence of bidirectional linkages. Overall, except for volatility linkages, the integration of SA into the global equity markets is still quite low. Thus, both SA and international investors can capitalise on this portfolio diversification potential. On the other hand, policy makers should capitalise on this and make policies that will attract the much needed foreign investors.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2008
- Authors: Chinzara, Zivanemoyo
- Date: 2008
- Subjects: Stock exchanges -- South Africa , Globalization -- Economic aspects -- South Africa , International economic relations , Portfolio management -- South Africa , Monetary policy -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:970 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002704 , Stock exchanges -- South Africa , Globalization -- Economic aspects -- South Africa , International economic relations , Portfolio management -- South Africa , Monetary policy -- South Africa
- Description: The international linkages of stock markets have important implications for cost of capital and portfolio diversification. Recent trends in globalization, financial liberalization and financial innovation raises questions with regard to whether African stock markets are being integrated into world equity markets. This study examines the extent to which the South African (SA) equity market is integrated into the world equity markets using daily data for the period 1995-2007. The study is divided into three main parts, each looking at the different ways in which integration can be considered. The first investigates whether there is long run comovement between the SA and the major global equity markets. Both bivariate and multivariate Johansen (1988) and Johansen and Juselius (1990) cointegration approaches were utilised. Vector Error Correction Models (VECMs) are then estimated for portfolios which show evidence of cointegration. The second part analyses returns linkages using the Vector Autoregressive (VAR), block exogeneity, impulse response and variance decomposition. The third part examines the behaviour of volatility and volatility linkages among the stock markets. Firstly volatility is analysed using the GARCH, EGARCH and GJR GARCH. Simultaneously, the hypothesis that investors receive a premium for investing in more risky stock markets is explored using the GARCH-in mean. The long term trend of volatility is also examined. Volatility linkages are then analysed using the VAR, block exogeneity, impulse response and variance decomposition. The first part established that no bivariate cointegration exists between the SA and any of the stock markets being studied, implying that pairwise portfolio diversification is potentially worthwhile for SA portfolio managers. However, multivariate cointegration exists for some portfolios, with the US, UK, Germany and SA showing evidence of error correction for some of these portfolios. Findings on return linkages is that there are significant returns linkages among the markets, with the US and SA being the most exogenous and most endogenous respectively. Findings regarding volatility are that the volatility in all the markets is inherently asymmetric and that except for the US there is no risk premium in any of the markets. The long term trend of volatility in all the stock markets was found to be relatively stable. The final finding was that significant volatility linkages exist among the markets, with the US being the most exogenous and SA and China showing evidence of bidirectional linkages. Overall, except for volatility linkages, the integration of SA into the global equity markets is still quite low. Thus, both SA and international investors can capitalise on this portfolio diversification potential. On the other hand, policy makers should capitalise on this and make policies that will attract the much needed foreign investors.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2008
Interest rate risk management : a case study of GBS Mutual Bank
- Authors: Williamson, Gareth Alan
- Date: 2008
- Subjects: GBS Mutual Bank , Interest rates -- Case studies , Interest rate risk -- Case studies , Risk management -- Case studies , Financial risk -- Case studies , Banks and banking -- Case studies
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:986 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002720 , GBS Mutual Bank , Interest rates -- Case studies , Interest rate risk -- Case studies , Risk management -- Case studies , Financial risk -- Case studies , Banks and banking -- Case studies
- Description: Banks play a pivotal role in the economic growth and development of countries, primarily through the diversification of risk for both themselves and other economic agents. Interest rate risk is regarded as one of the most prominent financial risks faced by a bank. A large portion of private banks’ revenue stems from net interest income that is generated from the difference between various assets and liabilities that are held on the balance sheet. Fluctuations in the interest rate can alter a bank’s interest income and value, making interest rate risk management vital to its success. The asset and liability committee of a bank is the internal committee charged with the duty of managing the bank’s interest rate risk exposure through the use of various hedging strategies and instruments. This thesis uses a case study methodology to analyse GBS Mutual Bank interest rate risk management. Its specific business circumstances, balance sheet structure and the market conditions over a specified period are used to comment on the practicality of a variety of balance sheet positioning strategies and derivative hedging instruments. The thesis also provides recommendations for the bank’s asset and liability committee in terms of its functions and organisation. It is elucidated that the most practical balance sheet hedging strategies are a volume strategy and immunisation, while the most practical derivative hedging instruments are interest rate futures and interest rate collars. It is found that the bank has a well functioning asset and liability committee whose only encumbrance to its functionality is the inadequacy of the informational technology used to measure, control and manage its interest rate risk position. This thesis concludes by summarising the practicality of the various interest rate risk hedging alternatives available to the GBS Mutual Bank. Implementing a particular strategy or instrument depends, of course, on its asset and liability committee’s decision.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2008
- Authors: Williamson, Gareth Alan
- Date: 2008
- Subjects: GBS Mutual Bank , Interest rates -- Case studies , Interest rate risk -- Case studies , Risk management -- Case studies , Financial risk -- Case studies , Banks and banking -- Case studies
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:986 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002720 , GBS Mutual Bank , Interest rates -- Case studies , Interest rate risk -- Case studies , Risk management -- Case studies , Financial risk -- Case studies , Banks and banking -- Case studies
- Description: Banks play a pivotal role in the economic growth and development of countries, primarily through the diversification of risk for both themselves and other economic agents. Interest rate risk is regarded as one of the most prominent financial risks faced by a bank. A large portion of private banks’ revenue stems from net interest income that is generated from the difference between various assets and liabilities that are held on the balance sheet. Fluctuations in the interest rate can alter a bank’s interest income and value, making interest rate risk management vital to its success. The asset and liability committee of a bank is the internal committee charged with the duty of managing the bank’s interest rate risk exposure through the use of various hedging strategies and instruments. This thesis uses a case study methodology to analyse GBS Mutual Bank interest rate risk management. Its specific business circumstances, balance sheet structure and the market conditions over a specified period are used to comment on the practicality of a variety of balance sheet positioning strategies and derivative hedging instruments. The thesis also provides recommendations for the bank’s asset and liability committee in terms of its functions and organisation. It is elucidated that the most practical balance sheet hedging strategies are a volume strategy and immunisation, while the most practical derivative hedging instruments are interest rate futures and interest rate collars. It is found that the bank has a well functioning asset and liability committee whose only encumbrance to its functionality is the inadequacy of the informational technology used to measure, control and manage its interest rate risk position. This thesis concludes by summarising the practicality of the various interest rate risk hedging alternatives available to the GBS Mutual Bank. Implementing a particular strategy or instrument depends, of course, on its asset and liability committee’s decision.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2008
Normative indications for Xhosa-speaking unskilled workers on the trail making test and the stroop test
- Authors: Andrews, Karen Anne Hope
- Date: 2008
- Subjects: Neuropsychology , Neuropsychological tests -- Sex differences , Educational tests and measurements -- Sex differences , Xhosa (African people) -- Education
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:2926 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002435 , Neuropsychology , Neuropsychological tests -- Sex differences , Educational tests and measurements -- Sex differences , Xhosa (African people) -- Education
- Description: The aim of the study was to produce preliminary normative indications for the Trail Making Test and the Stroop Test, administered in English, on a non-clinical sample of black, Xhosa-speaking, unskilled individuals (N = 33), with an educational level of 11 – 12 years, in two age categories (18 –29 and 30 – 40 years). The sample was equally distributed for gender and level of education. Participants, who were required to have a basic proficiency in English, were from traditionally black township schools with relatively disadvantaged quality of education. Within-sample age and gender effects were investigated. There were no significant age effects on the Trail Making Test, whereas there was one significant difference between age groups on the Stroop Test with respect to the Color-Word task, and a result that strongly approached significance on the Word task, with the younger group performing better than the older group. There were no significant gender effects on the Trail Making Test, whereas there was one significant difference between genders on the Stroop Test with respect to the Word task, and a result that approached significance on the Color task, with females performing better than males. Normative indications for both measures were compared to available normative data on western populations with higher levels and more advantaged quality of education. This comparison revealed consistently poorer performances for both the Trail Making Test and the Stroop Test, confirming the need for localised normative datasets to facilitate accurate neuropsychological diagnoses on culturally disadvantaged individuals.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2008
- Authors: Andrews, Karen Anne Hope
- Date: 2008
- Subjects: Neuropsychology , Neuropsychological tests -- Sex differences , Educational tests and measurements -- Sex differences , Xhosa (African people) -- Education
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:2926 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002435 , Neuropsychology , Neuropsychological tests -- Sex differences , Educational tests and measurements -- Sex differences , Xhosa (African people) -- Education
- Description: The aim of the study was to produce preliminary normative indications for the Trail Making Test and the Stroop Test, administered in English, on a non-clinical sample of black, Xhosa-speaking, unskilled individuals (N = 33), with an educational level of 11 – 12 years, in two age categories (18 –29 and 30 – 40 years). The sample was equally distributed for gender and level of education. Participants, who were required to have a basic proficiency in English, were from traditionally black township schools with relatively disadvantaged quality of education. Within-sample age and gender effects were investigated. There were no significant age effects on the Trail Making Test, whereas there was one significant difference between age groups on the Stroop Test with respect to the Color-Word task, and a result that strongly approached significance on the Word task, with the younger group performing better than the older group. There were no significant gender effects on the Trail Making Test, whereas there was one significant difference between genders on the Stroop Test with respect to the Word task, and a result that approached significance on the Color task, with females performing better than males. Normative indications for both measures were compared to available normative data on western populations with higher levels and more advantaged quality of education. This comparison revealed consistently poorer performances for both the Trail Making Test and the Stroop Test, confirming the need for localised normative datasets to facilitate accurate neuropsychological diagnoses on culturally disadvantaged individuals.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2008
The distinction between tax evasion, tax avoidance and tax planning
- Authors: Tarrant, Greg
- Date: 2008
- Subjects: South African Revenue Service , Tax evasion -- South Africa , Tax planning -- South Africa , Income tax -- South Africa , Income tax -- Law and legislation -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:897 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1004549
- Description: Tax avoidance has been the subject of intense scrutiny lately by both the South African Revenue Service ("the SARS") and the media. This attention stems largely from the recent withdrawal of section 103(1) together with the introduction of section 80A to 80L of the South African Income Tax Act. However, this attention is not limited to South Africa. Revenue authorities worldwide have focused on the task of challenging tax avoidance. The approach of the SARS to tackling tax avoidance has been multi-faceted. In the Discussion Paper on Tax Avoidance and Section 103 (1) of the South African Income Tax Act they begin with a review of the distinction between tax evasion, tax avoidance and tax planning. Following a call for comment the SARS issued an Interim Response followed by the Revised Proposals which culminated in the withdrawal of the longstanding general anti-avoidance rules housed in section 103(1) and the introduction of new and more comprehensive anti-avoidance rules. In addition, the SARS has adopted an ongoing media campaign stressing the importance of paying tax in a country with a large development agenda like that of South Africa, the need for taxpayers to adopt a responsible attitude to the management of tax and the inclusion of responsible tax management as the greatest measure of a taxpayer's corporate and social investment. In tandem with this message the SARS have sought to vilify those taxpayers who engage in tax avoidance. The message is clear: tax avoidance carries reputational risks; those who engage in tax avoidance are unpatriotic or immoral and their actions simply result in an unfair shifting of the tax burden. The SARS is not alone in the above approach. Around the world tax authorities have been echoing the same message. The message appears to be working. Accounting firms speak of a "creeping conservatism" that has pervaded company boardrooms. What is not clear, however, is whether taxpayers, in becoming more conservative, are simply more fully aware of tax risks and are making informed decisions or whether they are simply responding to external events, such as the worldwide focus by revenue authorities and the media on tax avoidance. Whatever the reason, it is now critical, particularly in the case of corporate taxpayers, that their policies for tax and its attendant risks need to be as sophisticated, coherent and transparent as its policies in all other areas involving multiple stakeholders, such as suppliers, customers, staff and investors. How does a company begin to set its tax philosophy and strategic direction or to determine its appetite for risk? A starting point, it is submitted would be a review of the distinction between tax evasion, avoidance and planning with a heightened sensitivity to the unfamiliar ethical, moral and social risks. The goal of this thesis was to clearly define the distinction between tax evasion, tax avoidance and tax planning from a legal interpretive, ethical and historical perspective in order to develop a rudimentary framework for the responsible management of strategic tax decisions, in the light of the new South African general anti-avoidance legislation. The research methodology entails a qualitative research orientation consisting of a critical conceptual analysis of tax evasion and tax avoidance, with a view to establishing a basic framework to be used by taxpayers to make informed decisions on tax matters. The analysis of the distinction in this work culminated in a diagrammatic representation of the distinction between tax evasion, tax avoidance and tax planning emphasising the different types of tax avoidance from least aggressive to the most abusive and from the least objectionable to most objectionable. It is anticipated that a visual representation of the distinction, however flawed, would result in a far more pragmatic tool to taxpayers than a lengthy document. From a glance taxpayers can determine the following: That tax avoidance is legal; that different forms of tax avoidance exist, some forms being more aggressive than others; that aggressive forms of tax avoidance carry reputational risks; and that in certain circumstances aggressive tax avoidance schemes may border on tax evasion. This, it is envisaged, may prompt taxpayers to ask the right questions when faced with an external or in-house tax avoidance arrangement rather than simply blindly accepting or rejecting the arrangement.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2008
- Authors: Tarrant, Greg
- Date: 2008
- Subjects: South African Revenue Service , Tax evasion -- South Africa , Tax planning -- South Africa , Income tax -- South Africa , Income tax -- Law and legislation -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:897 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1004549
- Description: Tax avoidance has been the subject of intense scrutiny lately by both the South African Revenue Service ("the SARS") and the media. This attention stems largely from the recent withdrawal of section 103(1) together with the introduction of section 80A to 80L of the South African Income Tax Act. However, this attention is not limited to South Africa. Revenue authorities worldwide have focused on the task of challenging tax avoidance. The approach of the SARS to tackling tax avoidance has been multi-faceted. In the Discussion Paper on Tax Avoidance and Section 103 (1) of the South African Income Tax Act they begin with a review of the distinction between tax evasion, tax avoidance and tax planning. Following a call for comment the SARS issued an Interim Response followed by the Revised Proposals which culminated in the withdrawal of the longstanding general anti-avoidance rules housed in section 103(1) and the introduction of new and more comprehensive anti-avoidance rules. In addition, the SARS has adopted an ongoing media campaign stressing the importance of paying tax in a country with a large development agenda like that of South Africa, the need for taxpayers to adopt a responsible attitude to the management of tax and the inclusion of responsible tax management as the greatest measure of a taxpayer's corporate and social investment. In tandem with this message the SARS have sought to vilify those taxpayers who engage in tax avoidance. The message is clear: tax avoidance carries reputational risks; those who engage in tax avoidance are unpatriotic or immoral and their actions simply result in an unfair shifting of the tax burden. The SARS is not alone in the above approach. Around the world tax authorities have been echoing the same message. The message appears to be working. Accounting firms speak of a "creeping conservatism" that has pervaded company boardrooms. What is not clear, however, is whether taxpayers, in becoming more conservative, are simply more fully aware of tax risks and are making informed decisions or whether they are simply responding to external events, such as the worldwide focus by revenue authorities and the media on tax avoidance. Whatever the reason, it is now critical, particularly in the case of corporate taxpayers, that their policies for tax and its attendant risks need to be as sophisticated, coherent and transparent as its policies in all other areas involving multiple stakeholders, such as suppliers, customers, staff and investors. How does a company begin to set its tax philosophy and strategic direction or to determine its appetite for risk? A starting point, it is submitted would be a review of the distinction between tax evasion, avoidance and planning with a heightened sensitivity to the unfamiliar ethical, moral and social risks. The goal of this thesis was to clearly define the distinction between tax evasion, tax avoidance and tax planning from a legal interpretive, ethical and historical perspective in order to develop a rudimentary framework for the responsible management of strategic tax decisions, in the light of the new South African general anti-avoidance legislation. The research methodology entails a qualitative research orientation consisting of a critical conceptual analysis of tax evasion and tax avoidance, with a view to establishing a basic framework to be used by taxpayers to make informed decisions on tax matters. The analysis of the distinction in this work culminated in a diagrammatic representation of the distinction between tax evasion, tax avoidance and tax planning emphasising the different types of tax avoidance from least aggressive to the most abusive and from the least objectionable to most objectionable. It is anticipated that a visual representation of the distinction, however flawed, would result in a far more pragmatic tool to taxpayers than a lengthy document. From a glance taxpayers can determine the following: That tax avoidance is legal; that different forms of tax avoidance exist, some forms being more aggressive than others; that aggressive forms of tax avoidance carry reputational risks; and that in certain circumstances aggressive tax avoidance schemes may border on tax evasion. This, it is envisaged, may prompt taxpayers to ask the right questions when faced with an external or in-house tax avoidance arrangement rather than simply blindly accepting or rejecting the arrangement.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2008
The influence of organisational culture on organisational commitment at a selected local municipality
- Van Stuyvesant Meijen, Jolise
- Authors: Van Stuyvesant Meijen, Jolise
- Date: 2008
- Subjects: Local government -- South Africa , Corporate culture -- South Africa , Organizational change -- South Africa , Municipal services -- South Africa , Employee loyalty
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1172 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002788
- Description: Since 2000, local municipalities have been through a process of transformation which amalgamated a number of smaller local municipalities into larger municipalities. The amalgamation of a number of municipalities brings together an array of people, and therefore a myriad of organisational cultures are combined. The organisational culture of an organisation has an effect on the organisational commitment of its employees. A fit between the organisational culture and the employees will increase the organisational commitment of those employees and contribute towards improved service delivery. A survey conducted in South Africa indicated that the local municipalities have been delivering poor standards of service to the community; therefore there is a need to increase the service delivery within local municipalities. The importance of looking at the organisational commitment of a local municipality is because if there is commitment within the organisation, then employees will identify with their organisation and its goals, and will deliver the service more effectively and efficiently. Therefore, increasing the service delivery of local municipalities can be achieved through diagnosing the organisational commitment and organisational culture of employees within the selected municipality. The primary objective of this research was therefore to diagnose the relationship between organisational culture and the organisational commitment of employees at the selected municipality. In order to achieve this objective, a survey was conducted to canvas the opinions of respondents (N = 148) from the selected local municipality regarding their perceptions of the existing organisational culture, their preferences regarding the organisational culture within the selected municipality, and finally the organisational commitment. The main findings of this research conducted at a selected municipality can be summarised as follows: The dominant existing organisational culture is the power culture, while the dominant preferred organisational culture is the support culture; There is an organisational culture gap between the existing and preferred organisational cultures at the selected municipality; The dominant organisational commitment within the selected municipality is normative commitment; The findings pertaining to the relationship between organisational culture and organisational commitment of employees within the selected municipality can be stated as follows: The existing organisational cultures have significant effects on the organisational commitment of employees; The preferred organisational cultures do not have significant effects on the organisational commitment of employees; and The organisational culture gap does not have a significant effect on the organisational commitment of employees; The findings pertaining to the relationship between the biographical variables and the existing and preferred organisational culture, organisational commitment and the organisational culture gap can be stated as follows: There is no significant relationship between biographical variables and the existing organisational culture; There are significant relationships between the biographical variables, namely the departments in which respondents work, and the education level of respondents, and the preferred organisational culture; There are significant relationships between the biographical variables and organisational commitment; and The average organisational culture gap scores of the organisational culture scales for the biographical variables are significantly different. It can be concluded that organisational culture has a significant effect on the organisational commitment of employees within the selected municipality and therefore can affect the service delivery of the selected municipality.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2008
- Authors: Van Stuyvesant Meijen, Jolise
- Date: 2008
- Subjects: Local government -- South Africa , Corporate culture -- South Africa , Organizational change -- South Africa , Municipal services -- South Africa , Employee loyalty
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1172 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002788
- Description: Since 2000, local municipalities have been through a process of transformation which amalgamated a number of smaller local municipalities into larger municipalities. The amalgamation of a number of municipalities brings together an array of people, and therefore a myriad of organisational cultures are combined. The organisational culture of an organisation has an effect on the organisational commitment of its employees. A fit between the organisational culture and the employees will increase the organisational commitment of those employees and contribute towards improved service delivery. A survey conducted in South Africa indicated that the local municipalities have been delivering poor standards of service to the community; therefore there is a need to increase the service delivery within local municipalities. The importance of looking at the organisational commitment of a local municipality is because if there is commitment within the organisation, then employees will identify with their organisation and its goals, and will deliver the service more effectively and efficiently. Therefore, increasing the service delivery of local municipalities can be achieved through diagnosing the organisational commitment and organisational culture of employees within the selected municipality. The primary objective of this research was therefore to diagnose the relationship between organisational culture and the organisational commitment of employees at the selected municipality. In order to achieve this objective, a survey was conducted to canvas the opinions of respondents (N = 148) from the selected local municipality regarding their perceptions of the existing organisational culture, their preferences regarding the organisational culture within the selected municipality, and finally the organisational commitment. The main findings of this research conducted at a selected municipality can be summarised as follows: The dominant existing organisational culture is the power culture, while the dominant preferred organisational culture is the support culture; There is an organisational culture gap between the existing and preferred organisational cultures at the selected municipality; The dominant organisational commitment within the selected municipality is normative commitment; The findings pertaining to the relationship between organisational culture and organisational commitment of employees within the selected municipality can be stated as follows: The existing organisational cultures have significant effects on the organisational commitment of employees; The preferred organisational cultures do not have significant effects on the organisational commitment of employees; and The organisational culture gap does not have a significant effect on the organisational commitment of employees; The findings pertaining to the relationship between the biographical variables and the existing and preferred organisational culture, organisational commitment and the organisational culture gap can be stated as follows: There is no significant relationship between biographical variables and the existing organisational culture; There are significant relationships between the biographical variables, namely the departments in which respondents work, and the education level of respondents, and the preferred organisational culture; There are significant relationships between the biographical variables and organisational commitment; and The average organisational culture gap scores of the organisational culture scales for the biographical variables are significantly different. It can be concluded that organisational culture has a significant effect on the organisational commitment of employees within the selected municipality and therefore can affect the service delivery of the selected municipality.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2008
The role of experience in the development of bar managers' social competencies
- Authors: Dhaya, Jateen
- Date: 2008
- Subjects: Hospitality Industry -- Management , Bars (Drinking establishments) -- Management , Social skills , Executive ability , Interpersonal communication , Experience
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1177 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002794 , Hospitality Industry -- Management , Bars (Drinking establishments) -- Management , Social skills , Executive ability , Interpersonal communication , Experience
- Description: This research study analysed the role that experience played in the development of bar managers’ social competencies. Given the social nature of the bar environment, social competencies were perceived to be essential managerial competencies that enable bar managers to manage employees and consumers to ensure that employee and consumer satisfaction is maintained. The literature reviewed discussed the importance of managerial competencies and the composition of social competencies. Experience was conceptualized to develop an understanding of the informal learning method through which competency development occurs. Data was captured through face-to-face interviews, which were based on the Critical Incident Technique (CIT). The data was analysed using the open coding procedures of grounded theory. This research study proposed a process to explain how experience contributed to the development of social competencies. The proposed process, which is called the Social Competency Cache Development Process (SCCD Process), ultimately indicated that experience contributed to bar managers’ social competencies through a reflection process, the residues of experience, and through the familiarity of situations and results. This research study found that experience contributed to the development of bar managers’ social competencies within a process that established an awareness of unfamiliar social competencies or reinforced the effects of familiar effective social competencies. Experience was also found to promote the transition between novel situations and familiar situations, which in turn enabled bar managers to effectively assess social situations and select effective responses to social situations. Consequently, experience improved the probability of bar managers implementing effective social competencies to ensure employee and consumer satisfaction. In essence, experience shaped bar managers’ accumulation of social competencies by promoting the addition of new social competencies or the reinforcement of existing social competencies.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2008
- Authors: Dhaya, Jateen
- Date: 2008
- Subjects: Hospitality Industry -- Management , Bars (Drinking establishments) -- Management , Social skills , Executive ability , Interpersonal communication , Experience
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1177 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002794 , Hospitality Industry -- Management , Bars (Drinking establishments) -- Management , Social skills , Executive ability , Interpersonal communication , Experience
- Description: This research study analysed the role that experience played in the development of bar managers’ social competencies. Given the social nature of the bar environment, social competencies were perceived to be essential managerial competencies that enable bar managers to manage employees and consumers to ensure that employee and consumer satisfaction is maintained. The literature reviewed discussed the importance of managerial competencies and the composition of social competencies. Experience was conceptualized to develop an understanding of the informal learning method through which competency development occurs. Data was captured through face-to-face interviews, which were based on the Critical Incident Technique (CIT). The data was analysed using the open coding procedures of grounded theory. This research study proposed a process to explain how experience contributed to the development of social competencies. The proposed process, which is called the Social Competency Cache Development Process (SCCD Process), ultimately indicated that experience contributed to bar managers’ social competencies through a reflection process, the residues of experience, and through the familiarity of situations and results. This research study found that experience contributed to the development of bar managers’ social competencies within a process that established an awareness of unfamiliar social competencies or reinforced the effects of familiar effective social competencies. Experience was also found to promote the transition between novel situations and familiar situations, which in turn enabled bar managers to effectively assess social situations and select effective responses to social situations. Consequently, experience improved the probability of bar managers implementing effective social competencies to ensure employee and consumer satisfaction. In essence, experience shaped bar managers’ accumulation of social competencies by promoting the addition of new social competencies or the reinforcement of existing social competencies.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2008
The tax implications of non-resident sportspersons performing and earning an income in South Africa
- Authors: Wessels, Jacques
- Date: 2008
- Subjects: South African Revenue Service , Sports -- Taxation -- Law and legislation -- South Africa , Taxation -- Law and legislation -- South Africa , Income tax -- Law and legislation -- South Africa , Income tax -- Foreign income , Income tax -- South Africa -- Foreign income , Withholding tax -- Law and legislation -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:893 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1003719 , South African Revenue Service , Sports -- Taxation -- Law and legislation -- South Africa , Taxation -- Law and legislation -- South Africa , Income tax -- Law and legislation -- South Africa , Income tax -- Foreign income , Income tax -- South Africa -- Foreign income , Withholding tax -- Law and legislation -- South Africa
- Description: As the number of non-resident sports persons competing in South Africa increases so does the need to tax them more effectively. It was for this reason that the South African legislature decided to insert Part IlIA into the Income Tax Act which regulates the taxation of non-resident sports persons in South Africa. The new tax on foreign sports persons, which came into effect during August 2006, is a withholding tax placing the onus upon the organizer of the event to withhold the tax portion of the payment to the non-resident sportsperson and pay it over to the revenue services. The rate of taxation has been set at 15 percent on all amounts received by or accruing to a foreign sportsperson. The question which the research addressed is whether this new tax will prove to be an effective tax, both from the point of view of its equity and the administration of the tax. In order to determine the impact of the new tax, it was compared to similar taxes implemented in the United Kingdom and Australia and also to other withholding taxes levied in South Africa. The new tax was also measured against a theoretical model for effectiveness, compared to the pre-August 2006 situation and to the taxation of resident sportsmen and women, using hypothetical examples. The major shortcomings of the new withholding tax are the uncertainty with regard to the intention of the legislature on matters such as the taxation of capital income versus revenue income, the question whether payments to support staff are included in the ambit of the new tax, the taxation of the award of assets in lieu of cash payments and the definition of a resident. A further area of concern is that the rate of taxation of 15 percent appears to be too low and creates horizontal inequity between the taxation of resident and non-resident sports persons. The new tax on non-resident sports persons may have its shortcomings but, depending upon the administrative and support structures put in place to deal with it, will be an effective tax. The rate at which the tax is levied could result in a less tax being collected than before but, with the reduced administrative cost of tax collection, the effective/statutory ratio of the tax could well be much higher than it was. This is a new tax in South Africa and certain initial problems are inevitable and will undoubtedly be solved as the administrators gain experience and as the case law governing this tax develops. , KMBT_363
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2008
- Authors: Wessels, Jacques
- Date: 2008
- Subjects: South African Revenue Service , Sports -- Taxation -- Law and legislation -- South Africa , Taxation -- Law and legislation -- South Africa , Income tax -- Law and legislation -- South Africa , Income tax -- Foreign income , Income tax -- South Africa -- Foreign income , Withholding tax -- Law and legislation -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:893 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1003719 , South African Revenue Service , Sports -- Taxation -- Law and legislation -- South Africa , Taxation -- Law and legislation -- South Africa , Income tax -- Law and legislation -- South Africa , Income tax -- Foreign income , Income tax -- South Africa -- Foreign income , Withholding tax -- Law and legislation -- South Africa
- Description: As the number of non-resident sports persons competing in South Africa increases so does the need to tax them more effectively. It was for this reason that the South African legislature decided to insert Part IlIA into the Income Tax Act which regulates the taxation of non-resident sports persons in South Africa. The new tax on foreign sports persons, which came into effect during August 2006, is a withholding tax placing the onus upon the organizer of the event to withhold the tax portion of the payment to the non-resident sportsperson and pay it over to the revenue services. The rate of taxation has been set at 15 percent on all amounts received by or accruing to a foreign sportsperson. The question which the research addressed is whether this new tax will prove to be an effective tax, both from the point of view of its equity and the administration of the tax. In order to determine the impact of the new tax, it was compared to similar taxes implemented in the United Kingdom and Australia and also to other withholding taxes levied in South Africa. The new tax was also measured against a theoretical model for effectiveness, compared to the pre-August 2006 situation and to the taxation of resident sportsmen and women, using hypothetical examples. The major shortcomings of the new withholding tax are the uncertainty with regard to the intention of the legislature on matters such as the taxation of capital income versus revenue income, the question whether payments to support staff are included in the ambit of the new tax, the taxation of the award of assets in lieu of cash payments and the definition of a resident. A further area of concern is that the rate of taxation of 15 percent appears to be too low and creates horizontal inequity between the taxation of resident and non-resident sports persons. The new tax on non-resident sports persons may have its shortcomings but, depending upon the administrative and support structures put in place to deal with it, will be an effective tax. The rate at which the tax is levied could result in a less tax being collected than before but, with the reduced administrative cost of tax collection, the effective/statutory ratio of the tax could well be much higher than it was. This is a new tax in South Africa and certain initial problems are inevitable and will undoubtedly be solved as the administrators gain experience and as the case law governing this tax develops. , KMBT_363
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2008
Trends and determinants of inward foreign direct investment to South Africa
- Authors: Rusike, Tatonga Gardner
- Date: 2008
- Subjects: International business enterprises -- South Africa , Investments, Foreign -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , Macroeconomics -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:995 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002730 , International business enterprises -- South Africa , Investments, Foreign -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , Macroeconomics -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa
- Description: Foreign direct investment (FDI) is seen as a way to provide the needed capital inflow to stimulate growth in a domestic economy. FDI can also result in increased employment levels, managerial skills and increase in technology. In efforts to attract FDI, host countries have undertaken various policy incentives to attract foreign investors. This study analyses the trends and determinants of inward FDI to South Africa for the period 1975-2005. The study starts by reviewing FDI literature on its determinants and provides the macroeconomic background and FDI related policies undertaken in South Africa. The trend and sectoral analysis provides the actual nature of FDI flows to South Africa. An empirical model linking theoretical and empirical determinants of FDI is estimated using the Johansen cointegration and VECM framework. The study also augments the cointegration framework with impulse response and variance decomposition analyses to complement the long and short run determinants of FDI. Dummy variables are used in each of the estimated FDI models to take into account the possibility of structural breaks. Results show that relative to the size of the economy and to other developing countries, South Africa still receives low levels of inward FDI. Only are few years are exceptional i.e. 1997, 2001 and 2005. From the sectoral distribution, the financial sector is now the major recipient of FDI followed by the mining and manufacturing sectors. The emergence of the financial sector could suggest that FDI motives could have shifted from the natural resource seeking and market seeking to efficiency seeking FDI. The United Kingdom emerges as the major source of FDI to South Africa followed by United States of America and Germany. Empirical analysis indicated that openness, exchange rate and financial development are important long run determinants of FDI. Increased openness and financial development attract FDI while an increase (depreciation) in the exchange rate deters FDI to South Africa. Market size emerges as a short run determinant of FDI although it is declining in importance. Most of the impulse response analysis confirmed the VECM findings. Variance decomposition analysis showed that FDI itself, imports and exchange rate explain a significant amount of the forecast error variance. The influence of market size variable is small and declining over time.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2008
- Authors: Rusike, Tatonga Gardner
- Date: 2008
- Subjects: International business enterprises -- South Africa , Investments, Foreign -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , Macroeconomics -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:995 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002730 , International business enterprises -- South Africa , Investments, Foreign -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , Macroeconomics -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa
- Description: Foreign direct investment (FDI) is seen as a way to provide the needed capital inflow to stimulate growth in a domestic economy. FDI can also result in increased employment levels, managerial skills and increase in technology. In efforts to attract FDI, host countries have undertaken various policy incentives to attract foreign investors. This study analyses the trends and determinants of inward FDI to South Africa for the period 1975-2005. The study starts by reviewing FDI literature on its determinants and provides the macroeconomic background and FDI related policies undertaken in South Africa. The trend and sectoral analysis provides the actual nature of FDI flows to South Africa. An empirical model linking theoretical and empirical determinants of FDI is estimated using the Johansen cointegration and VECM framework. The study also augments the cointegration framework with impulse response and variance decomposition analyses to complement the long and short run determinants of FDI. Dummy variables are used in each of the estimated FDI models to take into account the possibility of structural breaks. Results show that relative to the size of the economy and to other developing countries, South Africa still receives low levels of inward FDI. Only are few years are exceptional i.e. 1997, 2001 and 2005. From the sectoral distribution, the financial sector is now the major recipient of FDI followed by the mining and manufacturing sectors. The emergence of the financial sector could suggest that FDI motives could have shifted from the natural resource seeking and market seeking to efficiency seeking FDI. The United Kingdom emerges as the major source of FDI to South Africa followed by United States of America and Germany. Empirical analysis indicated that openness, exchange rate and financial development are important long run determinants of FDI. Increased openness and financial development attract FDI while an increase (depreciation) in the exchange rate deters FDI to South Africa. Market size emerges as a short run determinant of FDI although it is declining in importance. Most of the impulse response analysis confirmed the VECM findings. Variance decomposition analysis showed that FDI itself, imports and exchange rate explain a significant amount of the forecast error variance. The influence of market size variable is small and declining over time.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2008
Willingness to pay for the control of water hyacinth in an urban environment of South Africa
- Authors: Law, Matthew Charles
- Date: 2008
- Subjects: Water hyacinth -- Control -- South Africa , Urban ecology (Sociology) -- South Africa , Biodiversity -- Economic aspects -- South Africa , Biodiversity conservation -- Economic aspects -- South Africa , Biological invasions -- Economic aspects -- South Africa , Biological invasions -- Environmental aspects -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:996 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002731 , Water hyacinth -- Control -- South Africa , Urban ecology (Sociology) -- South Africa , Biodiversity -- Economic aspects -- South Africa , Biodiversity conservation -- Economic aspects -- South Africa , Biological invasions -- Economic aspects -- South Africa , Biological invasions -- Environmental aspects -- South Africa
- Description: Water hyacinth is recognised as one of the most problematic invasive aquatic plant species in Africa. For this reason considerable funds are spent each year on itscontrol. As a consequence of the amount of money being spent on problems such as the invasion of water hyacinth, and because of the recognition of the ongoing and accelerated efforts that are required in the future, recent research has focused on accurately quantifying the costs and benefits of control of invasive species to aid policy decisions.A comprehensive cost-benefit analysis would be able to identify if the funds are justified and are being spent effectively. This thesis provides an example of a cost-benefit analysis of funds spent on the control of water hyacinth in an urban environment in South Africa. In order to develop a comprehensive assessment of the total economic value of the control of water hyacinth to an urban population, the Nahoon River in East London was selected as the study site to calculate the benefits of control. In addition to valuing the direct services provided by the resources that are traded in the market (in this case water provision), a contingent valuation study was undertaken in Abbottsford and Dorchester Heights (two suburbs in East London banking the Nahoon River). These were done in order to assess any non-use value a sample of 132 households of the population has for the control of water hyacinth, and any use values that are not traded in the market, for example recreational value. When the benefits of control of water hyacinth were compared to the costs of one of the least cost effective methods of control (herbicidal control), the benefits outweighed the costs by a ratio of more than 4:1, and for the most cost effective method of control the ratio was almost 6:1. These results provide a justification for the funds that are devoted to the control of water hyacinth, providing an argument for the continued expenditure for its control, and for further research into more cost effective methods of control, such as biological control.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2008
- Authors: Law, Matthew Charles
- Date: 2008
- Subjects: Water hyacinth -- Control -- South Africa , Urban ecology (Sociology) -- South Africa , Biodiversity -- Economic aspects -- South Africa , Biodiversity conservation -- Economic aspects -- South Africa , Biological invasions -- Economic aspects -- South Africa , Biological invasions -- Environmental aspects -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:996 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002731 , Water hyacinth -- Control -- South Africa , Urban ecology (Sociology) -- South Africa , Biodiversity -- Economic aspects -- South Africa , Biodiversity conservation -- Economic aspects -- South Africa , Biological invasions -- Economic aspects -- South Africa , Biological invasions -- Environmental aspects -- South Africa
- Description: Water hyacinth is recognised as one of the most problematic invasive aquatic plant species in Africa. For this reason considerable funds are spent each year on itscontrol. As a consequence of the amount of money being spent on problems such as the invasion of water hyacinth, and because of the recognition of the ongoing and accelerated efforts that are required in the future, recent research has focused on accurately quantifying the costs and benefits of control of invasive species to aid policy decisions.A comprehensive cost-benefit analysis would be able to identify if the funds are justified and are being spent effectively. This thesis provides an example of a cost-benefit analysis of funds spent on the control of water hyacinth in an urban environment in South Africa. In order to develop a comprehensive assessment of the total economic value of the control of water hyacinth to an urban population, the Nahoon River in East London was selected as the study site to calculate the benefits of control. In addition to valuing the direct services provided by the resources that are traded in the market (in this case water provision), a contingent valuation study was undertaken in Abbottsford and Dorchester Heights (two suburbs in East London banking the Nahoon River). These were done in order to assess any non-use value a sample of 132 households of the population has for the control of water hyacinth, and any use values that are not traded in the market, for example recreational value. When the benefits of control of water hyacinth were compared to the costs of one of the least cost effective methods of control (herbicidal control), the benefits outweighed the costs by a ratio of more than 4:1, and for the most cost effective method of control the ratio was almost 6:1. These results provide a justification for the funds that are devoted to the control of water hyacinth, providing an argument for the continued expenditure for its control, and for further research into more cost effective methods of control, such as biological control.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2008
An analysis of bank risk management and its relevance for the non-bank corporate sector
- Authors: Dietrich, David Roland
- Date: 2007
- Subjects: Bank management , Risk management , Corporations -- Finance , Financial institutions , Banks and banking
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:949 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002683 , Bank management , Risk management , Corporations -- Finance , Financial institutions , Banks and banking
- Description: This thesis, entitled “An analysis of bank risk management and its relevance for the non-bank corporate sector”, investigates the extent to which financial risk management by the banking sector can be applied to the non-bank corporate sector. As banks’ risk management techniques are more sophisticated than those of the non-bank corporate sector we have endeavoured to ascertain the applicability of these established risk management methods to the non-bank corporate sector. The main objectives of this study were to analyse the banking sectors’ risks and management thereof, and compare them to the risks faced by the nonbank corporate sector. This analysis was then used to present a theoretical financial risk management model for the corporate sector. This analysis was conducted using qualitative research. The thesis engaged in an in-depth investigation of financial risk management through a documentary, literature and media analysis. It was elucidated that not all companies face the same financial risks and therefore each company requires its own unique financial risk management model. Furthermore, it was established that there are several risks that both banks and non-bank corporates are subjected to. However, the management of these risks is not necessarily the same for these two types of institutes. This thesis concludes by putting forward a financial risk management model which presents all the possible financial risks that non-bank corporates may face.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2007
- Authors: Dietrich, David Roland
- Date: 2007
- Subjects: Bank management , Risk management , Corporations -- Finance , Financial institutions , Banks and banking
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:949 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002683 , Bank management , Risk management , Corporations -- Finance , Financial institutions , Banks and banking
- Description: This thesis, entitled “An analysis of bank risk management and its relevance for the non-bank corporate sector”, investigates the extent to which financial risk management by the banking sector can be applied to the non-bank corporate sector. As banks’ risk management techniques are more sophisticated than those of the non-bank corporate sector we have endeavoured to ascertain the applicability of these established risk management methods to the non-bank corporate sector. The main objectives of this study were to analyse the banking sectors’ risks and management thereof, and compare them to the risks faced by the nonbank corporate sector. This analysis was then used to present a theoretical financial risk management model for the corporate sector. This analysis was conducted using qualitative research. The thesis engaged in an in-depth investigation of financial risk management through a documentary, literature and media analysis. It was elucidated that not all companies face the same financial risks and therefore each company requires its own unique financial risk management model. Furthermore, it was established that there are several risks that both banks and non-bank corporates are subjected to. However, the management of these risks is not necessarily the same for these two types of institutes. This thesis concludes by putting forward a financial risk management model which presents all the possible financial risks that non-bank corporates may face.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2007
An analysis of neural networks and time series techniques for demand forecasting
- Authors: Winn, David
- Date: 2007
- Subjects: Time-series analysis , Neural networks (Computer science) , Artificial intelligence , Marketing -- Management , Marketing -- Data processing , Marketing -- Statistical methods , Consumer behaviour
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:5572 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1004362 , Time-series analysis , Neural networks (Computer science) , Artificial intelligence , Marketing -- Management , Marketing -- Data processing , Marketing -- Statistical methods , Consumer behaviour
- Description: This research examines the plausibility of developing demand forecasting techniques which are consistently and accurately able to predict demand. Time Series Techniques and Artificial Neural Networks are both investigated. Deodorant sales in South Africa are specifically studied in this thesis. Marketing techniques which are used to influence consumer buyer behaviour are considered, and these factors are integrated into the forecasting models wherever possible. The results of this research suggest that Artificial Neural Networks can be developed which consistently outperform industry forecasting targets as well as Time Series forecasts, suggesting that producers could reduce costs by adopting this more effective method.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2007
- Authors: Winn, David
- Date: 2007
- Subjects: Time-series analysis , Neural networks (Computer science) , Artificial intelligence , Marketing -- Management , Marketing -- Data processing , Marketing -- Statistical methods , Consumer behaviour
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:5572 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1004362 , Time-series analysis , Neural networks (Computer science) , Artificial intelligence , Marketing -- Management , Marketing -- Data processing , Marketing -- Statistical methods , Consumer behaviour
- Description: This research examines the plausibility of developing demand forecasting techniques which are consistently and accurately able to predict demand. Time Series Techniques and Artificial Neural Networks are both investigated. Deodorant sales in South Africa are specifically studied in this thesis. Marketing techniques which are used to influence consumer buyer behaviour are considered, and these factors are integrated into the forecasting models wherever possible. The results of this research suggest that Artificial Neural Networks can be developed which consistently outperform industry forecasting targets as well as Time Series forecasts, suggesting that producers could reduce costs by adopting this more effective method.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2007
An analysis of the turn-of-the-year effect in South African equity returns
- Authors: Potgieter, Damien
- Date: 2007
- Subjects: Johannesburg Stock Exchange , FTSE International , Stock exchanges -- South Africa , Stock price indexes -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1063 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1007605 , Johannesburg Stock Exchange , FTSE International , Stock exchanges -- South Africa , Stock price indexes -- South Africa
- Description: This study investigates FTSE/JSE All Share index monthly and daily equity returns for evidence of the January and TY effect. Four different measures of monthly return are analysed for the 1995-2006 period, whilst daily returns are analysed during the 1995-2005 period. In addition to this, analysis is conducted on monthly Fama-MacBeth risk premium estimates tor the FTSE/JSE All Share Index. Descriptive statistics are first analysed, followed by ANOV A or Kruskai-Wallis tests, the paired t-test and finally dummy variable regression analysis in investigating the seasonality of FTSE/JSE All Share Index returns and risk premia. Analysis on monthly returns reveals an absence of the January effect, however a positive slightly statistically significant December effect is found. Thus, investors earn abnormal returns on equity during the month of December. The results from the Fama-MacBeth risk premia estimates reveals highly statistically significant negative risk premia seasonal patterns during March, July and September. Thus, investors are in fact penalised for investing in equities during these months. In addition, the analysis reveals an absence of a December effect in risk premia, which contradicts the risk-return trade-off central to modem finance. The daily return analysis reveals a highly significant Turn-of-the-Year effect (TY), which suggests that investors earn abnormal returns on days at the turn of the year. Therefore, it is concluded that a December effect is apparent in South African equity monthly returns, whilst a March, July and September effect is apparent in South African equity risk premia contradicting the risk-return trade-off central to modem finance. In addition to this, a TY effect is present in South African equity daily returns.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2007
- Authors: Potgieter, Damien
- Date: 2007
- Subjects: Johannesburg Stock Exchange , FTSE International , Stock exchanges -- South Africa , Stock price indexes -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1063 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1007605 , Johannesburg Stock Exchange , FTSE International , Stock exchanges -- South Africa , Stock price indexes -- South Africa
- Description: This study investigates FTSE/JSE All Share index monthly and daily equity returns for evidence of the January and TY effect. Four different measures of monthly return are analysed for the 1995-2006 period, whilst daily returns are analysed during the 1995-2005 period. In addition to this, analysis is conducted on monthly Fama-MacBeth risk premium estimates tor the FTSE/JSE All Share Index. Descriptive statistics are first analysed, followed by ANOV A or Kruskai-Wallis tests, the paired t-test and finally dummy variable regression analysis in investigating the seasonality of FTSE/JSE All Share Index returns and risk premia. Analysis on monthly returns reveals an absence of the January effect, however a positive slightly statistically significant December effect is found. Thus, investors earn abnormal returns on equity during the month of December. The results from the Fama-MacBeth risk premia estimates reveals highly statistically significant negative risk premia seasonal patterns during March, July and September. Thus, investors are in fact penalised for investing in equities during these months. In addition, the analysis reveals an absence of a December effect in risk premia, which contradicts the risk-return trade-off central to modem finance. The daily return analysis reveals a highly significant Turn-of-the-Year effect (TY), which suggests that investors earn abnormal returns on days at the turn of the year. Therefore, it is concluded that a December effect is apparent in South African equity monthly returns, whilst a March, July and September effect is apparent in South African equity risk premia contradicting the risk-return trade-off central to modem finance. In addition to this, a TY effect is present in South African equity daily returns.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2007
An empirical investigation into the determinants of stock market behaviour in South Africa
- Authors: Olalere, Durodola Oludamola
- Date: 2007
- Subjects: Johannesburg Stock Exchange , Stocks -- Prices -- South Africa , Stock exchanges -- South Africa , Macroeconomics -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:998 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002733 , Johannesburg Stock Exchange , Stocks -- Prices -- South Africa , Stock exchanges -- South Africa , Macroeconomics -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa
- Description: The argument with regards to whether macro-economic fundamentals determine stock market behaviour is very important because of the roles it plays in an economy. Such roles include: pooling and trading of risks, mobilization of savings, provision of liquidity and allocation of capital. However, the stock market will only perform such roles effectively if the macro-economic environment is conducive. This study examined the behaviour of the All Share Index (ALSI) and market capitalization on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange in response to changes in the domestic and international macro-economic fundamentals such as the consumer price index, rand-dollar real exchange rates, domestic GDP, yield on South African government bonds, yield on United States government bonds and United States GDP. The study used cointegration and error correction techniques proposed by Johansen and Juselius (1990) to test for long run relationship. Two separate models were estimated and results obtained show that the two proxies for the stock market behaviour (All share Index and market capitalization) are true endogenous variables, but react differently to economic fundamentals. The consumer price index has a significant negative impact on the JSE share price index while market capitalization is determined predominantly by the yield on South African government bonds. The exchange rate seems to have had little or no influence on the share price index, but becomes negative and significant in the case of market capitalization. The yield on United States government bonds also produced a strong influence on both the share price index and market capitalization. While it has a negative significant impact on share prices, it produced a positive significant impact on market capitalization. In order to ascertain whether the South African interest rate or the United States interest rate is more important in explaining the share price and market capitalization, each of the variables were estimated in the model separately, the result obtained reveals that the United States interest rate is more important than the domestic interest rate in explaining the share price and market capitalization on the JSE. This implies that investors need to observe the USA interest rate before investing in South African equities. A comparison of the responses of share price index and market capitalization to impulses from the macro-economic variables tested reveals that both proxies elicit a positive response from aggregate output. The share price index responds more significantly to impulses from output growth than the market capitalization, meaning that, as aggregate production increases, the share price index tends to respond positively and quickly. The exchange rate produced mixed result from the two proxies, while it produced a positive response from the market capitalization; an initial positive response was noted in the share price index that immediately turned negative. Another glaring contrast was identified in the response of both proxies to impulses from the United States interest rate. The share price index responded positively while the market capitalization produced a negative response. This finding reveals that the two proxies actually respond differently to macro-economic variables. The variance decomposition of both stock prices and market capitalization reveals that the yield on United States government bonds has a more significant absorption potential than the South African government bonds. However, the absorption process is slower in the case of the market capitalization. The exchange rate has a greater impact on the market capitalization than stock prices. The overall assessment shows that share prices respond faster than market capitalization to macro-economic fundamentals. The study also shows that the increased openness of the South African economy by way of relaxation of the exchange control on capital account transaction has allowed the USA market to play a crucial role in equity prices in South Africa. Three main policy recommendations results from the study. Firstly, if inflation is well monitored, then the local equity market is bound to perform strongly resulting in strong shares earning growth. Secondly, the exchange rate should be made to be less volatile so that long term investment plans across borders can be further enhanced. Thirdly, financial analyst and investors in South Africa need to analyse macro-economic developments in the United States before investing in equities in South Africa.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2007
- Authors: Olalere, Durodola Oludamola
- Date: 2007
- Subjects: Johannesburg Stock Exchange , Stocks -- Prices -- South Africa , Stock exchanges -- South Africa , Macroeconomics -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:998 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002733 , Johannesburg Stock Exchange , Stocks -- Prices -- South Africa , Stock exchanges -- South Africa , Macroeconomics -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa
- Description: The argument with regards to whether macro-economic fundamentals determine stock market behaviour is very important because of the roles it plays in an economy. Such roles include: pooling and trading of risks, mobilization of savings, provision of liquidity and allocation of capital. However, the stock market will only perform such roles effectively if the macro-economic environment is conducive. This study examined the behaviour of the All Share Index (ALSI) and market capitalization on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange in response to changes in the domestic and international macro-economic fundamentals such as the consumer price index, rand-dollar real exchange rates, domestic GDP, yield on South African government bonds, yield on United States government bonds and United States GDP. The study used cointegration and error correction techniques proposed by Johansen and Juselius (1990) to test for long run relationship. Two separate models were estimated and results obtained show that the two proxies for the stock market behaviour (All share Index and market capitalization) are true endogenous variables, but react differently to economic fundamentals. The consumer price index has a significant negative impact on the JSE share price index while market capitalization is determined predominantly by the yield on South African government bonds. The exchange rate seems to have had little or no influence on the share price index, but becomes negative and significant in the case of market capitalization. The yield on United States government bonds also produced a strong influence on both the share price index and market capitalization. While it has a negative significant impact on share prices, it produced a positive significant impact on market capitalization. In order to ascertain whether the South African interest rate or the United States interest rate is more important in explaining the share price and market capitalization, each of the variables were estimated in the model separately, the result obtained reveals that the United States interest rate is more important than the domestic interest rate in explaining the share price and market capitalization on the JSE. This implies that investors need to observe the USA interest rate before investing in South African equities. A comparison of the responses of share price index and market capitalization to impulses from the macro-economic variables tested reveals that both proxies elicit a positive response from aggregate output. The share price index responds more significantly to impulses from output growth than the market capitalization, meaning that, as aggregate production increases, the share price index tends to respond positively and quickly. The exchange rate produced mixed result from the two proxies, while it produced a positive response from the market capitalization; an initial positive response was noted in the share price index that immediately turned negative. Another glaring contrast was identified in the response of both proxies to impulses from the United States interest rate. The share price index responded positively while the market capitalization produced a negative response. This finding reveals that the two proxies actually respond differently to macro-economic variables. The variance decomposition of both stock prices and market capitalization reveals that the yield on United States government bonds has a more significant absorption potential than the South African government bonds. However, the absorption process is slower in the case of the market capitalization. The exchange rate has a greater impact on the market capitalization than stock prices. The overall assessment shows that share prices respond faster than market capitalization to macro-economic fundamentals. The study also shows that the increased openness of the South African economy by way of relaxation of the exchange control on capital account transaction has allowed the USA market to play a crucial role in equity prices in South Africa. Three main policy recommendations results from the study. Firstly, if inflation is well monitored, then the local equity market is bound to perform strongly resulting in strong shares earning growth. Secondly, the exchange rate should be made to be less volatile so that long term investment plans across borders can be further enhanced. Thirdly, financial analyst and investors in South Africa need to analyse macro-economic developments in the United States before investing in equities in South Africa.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2007
An examination of internet usage patterns by mature travellers
- Authors: Correia, Sérgio Barradas
- Date: 2007
- Subjects: Tourism -- Marketing , Internet marketing , Internet users , Older people -- Travel , Older consumers -- Travel
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1194 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1008182 , Tourism -- Marketing , Internet marketing , Internet users , Older people -- Travel , Older consumers -- Travel
- Description: The tourism industry has been identified as the industry with the most potential to create jobs and contribute largely to economic growth. In order to live up to this potential, tourism businesses need to create tourism products for potential tourists which need to be promoted successfully through a number of mediums. The use of the Internet as a medium for promoting and selling tourism products is increasing, however, in order for tourism businesses to successfully promote the tourism product through the Internet, they have to understand the needs and wants of their current and potential target markets. One segment of the tourism market that has come under increasing attention is the mature traveller market. This market is defined as travellers who are 50 years of age and older. Generally, the mature traveller market is viewed as a small homogenous group of old consumers with little or no spending power. However, evidence suggests that this market is comprised of an increasing number of diverse people, who use the Internet and like to spend on tourism products. Therefore, this research will examine differences between Internet users and Internet non-users in the mature traveller market. Specific attention will be paid to investigate differences in demographic, socioeconomic, Internet use and travel-related characteristics. The identification of these characteristics will enable a profile to be d~veloped for each group, which can be used by tourism businesses to effectively promote tourism products over the Internet to the mature market In order to collect data from potential respondents, a questionnaire which was used in a similar study conducted in the US was used. Data was collected using a convenience sample of Internet users and Internet non-users from the Eastern Cape and Gauteng provinces of South Africa. Cronbach alpha and factor analysis were used to assess the reliability and validity of the research instrument and measurement scales. In order to test whether differences did exist between the two groups the Chi-square and t-test statistics were used. Finally in order to examine which factors where influential in differentiating between Internet users and Internet non-users discriminant analysis was employed. The findings in the present study suggest that there are significant differences in demographics, socioeconomic, Internet use and travel-related characteristics between Internet users and Internet non-users in the mature market. By understanding the differences between Internet users and Internet non-users, tourism businesses can identify marketing strategies that appeal to mature travellers who use the Internet and to those do not, by utilising information gathered from Internet users and Internet non-users demographic, socio-economic and travel-related characteristics.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2007
- Authors: Correia, Sérgio Barradas
- Date: 2007
- Subjects: Tourism -- Marketing , Internet marketing , Internet users , Older people -- Travel , Older consumers -- Travel
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1194 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1008182 , Tourism -- Marketing , Internet marketing , Internet users , Older people -- Travel , Older consumers -- Travel
- Description: The tourism industry has been identified as the industry with the most potential to create jobs and contribute largely to economic growth. In order to live up to this potential, tourism businesses need to create tourism products for potential tourists which need to be promoted successfully through a number of mediums. The use of the Internet as a medium for promoting and selling tourism products is increasing, however, in order for tourism businesses to successfully promote the tourism product through the Internet, they have to understand the needs and wants of their current and potential target markets. One segment of the tourism market that has come under increasing attention is the mature traveller market. This market is defined as travellers who are 50 years of age and older. Generally, the mature traveller market is viewed as a small homogenous group of old consumers with little or no spending power. However, evidence suggests that this market is comprised of an increasing number of diverse people, who use the Internet and like to spend on tourism products. Therefore, this research will examine differences between Internet users and Internet non-users in the mature traveller market. Specific attention will be paid to investigate differences in demographic, socioeconomic, Internet use and travel-related characteristics. The identification of these characteristics will enable a profile to be d~veloped for each group, which can be used by tourism businesses to effectively promote tourism products over the Internet to the mature market In order to collect data from potential respondents, a questionnaire which was used in a similar study conducted in the US was used. Data was collected using a convenience sample of Internet users and Internet non-users from the Eastern Cape and Gauteng provinces of South Africa. Cronbach alpha and factor analysis were used to assess the reliability and validity of the research instrument and measurement scales. In order to test whether differences did exist between the two groups the Chi-square and t-test statistics were used. Finally in order to examine which factors where influential in differentiating between Internet users and Internet non-users discriminant analysis was employed. The findings in the present study suggest that there are significant differences in demographics, socioeconomic, Internet use and travel-related characteristics between Internet users and Internet non-users in the mature market. By understanding the differences between Internet users and Internet non-users, tourism businesses can identify marketing strategies that appeal to mature travellers who use the Internet and to those do not, by utilising information gathered from Internet users and Internet non-users demographic, socio-economic and travel-related characteristics.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2007