An analysis of exchange rate pass-through to prices in South Africa
- Authors: Karoro, Tapiwa Daniel
- Date: 2008
- Subjects: Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Inflation (Finance) -- South Africa , Prices -- South Africa , Banks and banking -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic policy
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:953 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002687 , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Inflation (Finance) -- South Africa , Prices -- South Africa , Banks and banking -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic policy
- Description: The fact that South Africa has a floating exchange rate policy as well as an open trade policy leaves the country’s import, producer and consumer prices susceptible to the effects of exchange rate movements. Given the central role that inflation targeting occupies in South Africa’s monetary policy, it becomes necessary to determine the nature of influence of exchange rate changes on domestic prices. To this end, this thesis examines the magnitude and speed of exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) to import, producer and consumer prices in South Africa. Furthermore, it explores whether the direction and size of changes in the exchange rate have different pass-through effects on import prices, that is, whether the exchange rate pass-through is symmetric or asymmetric. The paper uses monthly data covering the period January 1980 to December 2005. In investigating ERPT, two main stages are identified. The initial stage is the transmission of fluctuations in the exchange rate to import prices, while the second-stage entails the pass-through of changes in import prices to producer and consumer prices. The first stage is estimated using the Johansen (1991) and (1995) cointegration techniques and a vector error correction model (VECM). The second stage pass-through is determined by estimating impulse response and variance decomposition functions, as well as conducting block exogeneity Wald tests. The study follows Wickremasinghe and Silvapulle’s (2004) approach in estimating pass-through asymmetry with respect to appreciations and depreciations. In addition, the thesis adapts the analytical framework of Wickremasinghe and Silvapulle (2004) to investigate the pass-through of large and small changes in the exchange rate to import prices. The results suggest that ERPT in South Africa is incomplete but relatively high. Furthermore, ERPT is found to be higher in periods of rand depreciation than appreciation which supports the binding quantity constraint theory. There is also some evidence that pass-through is higher in periods of small changes than large changes in the exchange rate, which supports the menu cost theory when invoices are denominated in the exporters’ currency.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2008
- Authors: Karoro, Tapiwa Daniel
- Date: 2008
- Subjects: Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Inflation (Finance) -- South Africa , Prices -- South Africa , Banks and banking -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic policy
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:953 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002687 , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Inflation (Finance) -- South Africa , Prices -- South Africa , Banks and banking -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic policy
- Description: The fact that South Africa has a floating exchange rate policy as well as an open trade policy leaves the country’s import, producer and consumer prices susceptible to the effects of exchange rate movements. Given the central role that inflation targeting occupies in South Africa’s monetary policy, it becomes necessary to determine the nature of influence of exchange rate changes on domestic prices. To this end, this thesis examines the magnitude and speed of exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) to import, producer and consumer prices in South Africa. Furthermore, it explores whether the direction and size of changes in the exchange rate have different pass-through effects on import prices, that is, whether the exchange rate pass-through is symmetric or asymmetric. The paper uses monthly data covering the period January 1980 to December 2005. In investigating ERPT, two main stages are identified. The initial stage is the transmission of fluctuations in the exchange rate to import prices, while the second-stage entails the pass-through of changes in import prices to producer and consumer prices. The first stage is estimated using the Johansen (1991) and (1995) cointegration techniques and a vector error correction model (VECM). The second stage pass-through is determined by estimating impulse response and variance decomposition functions, as well as conducting block exogeneity Wald tests. The study follows Wickremasinghe and Silvapulle’s (2004) approach in estimating pass-through asymmetry with respect to appreciations and depreciations. In addition, the thesis adapts the analytical framework of Wickremasinghe and Silvapulle (2004) to investigate the pass-through of large and small changes in the exchange rate to import prices. The results suggest that ERPT in South Africa is incomplete but relatively high. Furthermore, ERPT is found to be higher in periods of rand depreciation than appreciation which supports the binding quantity constraint theory. There is also some evidence that pass-through is higher in periods of small changes than large changes in the exchange rate, which supports the menu cost theory when invoices are denominated in the exporters’ currency.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2008
An empirical analysis of the long-run comovement, dynamic returns linkages and volatility transmission between the world major and the South African stock markets
- Authors: Chinzara, Zivanemoyo
- Date: 2008
- Subjects: Stock exchanges -- South Africa , Globalization -- Economic aspects -- South Africa , International economic relations , Portfolio management -- South Africa , Monetary policy -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:970 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002704 , Stock exchanges -- South Africa , Globalization -- Economic aspects -- South Africa , International economic relations , Portfolio management -- South Africa , Monetary policy -- South Africa
- Description: The international linkages of stock markets have important implications for cost of capital and portfolio diversification. Recent trends in globalization, financial liberalization and financial innovation raises questions with regard to whether African stock markets are being integrated into world equity markets. This study examines the extent to which the South African (SA) equity market is integrated into the world equity markets using daily data for the period 1995-2007. The study is divided into three main parts, each looking at the different ways in which integration can be considered. The first investigates whether there is long run comovement between the SA and the major global equity markets. Both bivariate and multivariate Johansen (1988) and Johansen and Juselius (1990) cointegration approaches were utilised. Vector Error Correction Models (VECMs) are then estimated for portfolios which show evidence of cointegration. The second part analyses returns linkages using the Vector Autoregressive (VAR), block exogeneity, impulse response and variance decomposition. The third part examines the behaviour of volatility and volatility linkages among the stock markets. Firstly volatility is analysed using the GARCH, EGARCH and GJR GARCH. Simultaneously, the hypothesis that investors receive a premium for investing in more risky stock markets is explored using the GARCH-in mean. The long term trend of volatility is also examined. Volatility linkages are then analysed using the VAR, block exogeneity, impulse response and variance decomposition. The first part established that no bivariate cointegration exists between the SA and any of the stock markets being studied, implying that pairwise portfolio diversification is potentially worthwhile for SA portfolio managers. However, multivariate cointegration exists for some portfolios, with the US, UK, Germany and SA showing evidence of error correction for some of these portfolios. Findings on return linkages is that there are significant returns linkages among the markets, with the US and SA being the most exogenous and most endogenous respectively. Findings regarding volatility are that the volatility in all the markets is inherently asymmetric and that except for the US there is no risk premium in any of the markets. The long term trend of volatility in all the stock markets was found to be relatively stable. The final finding was that significant volatility linkages exist among the markets, with the US being the most exogenous and SA and China showing evidence of bidirectional linkages. Overall, except for volatility linkages, the integration of SA into the global equity markets is still quite low. Thus, both SA and international investors can capitalise on this portfolio diversification potential. On the other hand, policy makers should capitalise on this and make policies that will attract the much needed foreign investors.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2008
- Authors: Chinzara, Zivanemoyo
- Date: 2008
- Subjects: Stock exchanges -- South Africa , Globalization -- Economic aspects -- South Africa , International economic relations , Portfolio management -- South Africa , Monetary policy -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:970 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002704 , Stock exchanges -- South Africa , Globalization -- Economic aspects -- South Africa , International economic relations , Portfolio management -- South Africa , Monetary policy -- South Africa
- Description: The international linkages of stock markets have important implications for cost of capital and portfolio diversification. Recent trends in globalization, financial liberalization and financial innovation raises questions with regard to whether African stock markets are being integrated into world equity markets. This study examines the extent to which the South African (SA) equity market is integrated into the world equity markets using daily data for the period 1995-2007. The study is divided into three main parts, each looking at the different ways in which integration can be considered. The first investigates whether there is long run comovement between the SA and the major global equity markets. Both bivariate and multivariate Johansen (1988) and Johansen and Juselius (1990) cointegration approaches were utilised. Vector Error Correction Models (VECMs) are then estimated for portfolios which show evidence of cointegration. The second part analyses returns linkages using the Vector Autoregressive (VAR), block exogeneity, impulse response and variance decomposition. The third part examines the behaviour of volatility and volatility linkages among the stock markets. Firstly volatility is analysed using the GARCH, EGARCH and GJR GARCH. Simultaneously, the hypothesis that investors receive a premium for investing in more risky stock markets is explored using the GARCH-in mean. The long term trend of volatility is also examined. Volatility linkages are then analysed using the VAR, block exogeneity, impulse response and variance decomposition. The first part established that no bivariate cointegration exists between the SA and any of the stock markets being studied, implying that pairwise portfolio diversification is potentially worthwhile for SA portfolio managers. However, multivariate cointegration exists for some portfolios, with the US, UK, Germany and SA showing evidence of error correction for some of these portfolios. Findings on return linkages is that there are significant returns linkages among the markets, with the US and SA being the most exogenous and most endogenous respectively. Findings regarding volatility are that the volatility in all the markets is inherently asymmetric and that except for the US there is no risk premium in any of the markets. The long term trend of volatility in all the stock markets was found to be relatively stable. The final finding was that significant volatility linkages exist among the markets, with the US being the most exogenous and SA and China showing evidence of bidirectional linkages. Overall, except for volatility linkages, the integration of SA into the global equity markets is still quite low. Thus, both SA and international investors can capitalise on this portfolio diversification potential. On the other hand, policy makers should capitalise on this and make policies that will attract the much needed foreign investors.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2008
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