The yield curve as a forecasting tool : does the yield spread predict recessions in South Africa?
- Authors: Khomo, Melvin Muzi
- Date: 2006
- Subjects: Recessions -- South Africa , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , Economic indicators -- South Africa , Business cycles -- History -- 20th century , Business cycles -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic conditions
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1040 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1004722 , Recessions -- South Africa , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , Economic indicators -- South Africa , Business cycles -- History -- 20th century , Business cycles -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic conditions
- Description: This paper examines the ability of the yield curve to predict recessions in South Africa, and compares its predictive power with other commonly used variables that include the growth rate in real money supply, changes in stock prices and the index of leading economic indicators. The study also makes an attempt to find out if monetary policy explains the yield spread's predictive power with regards to future economic activity. Regarding methodology, the standard probit model proposed by Estrella and Mishkin (1996) that directly estimates the probability of the economy going into recession is used. Results from this model are compared with a modified probit model suggested by Dueker (1997) that includes a lagged dependent variable. Results presented in the paper provide further evidence that the yield curve, as represented by the yield spread between 3-month and IO-year government paper, can be used to estimate the likelihood of recessions in South Africa. The yield spread can produce recession forecasts up to 18 months, although it's best predictive power is seen at two quarters. Results from the standard probit model and the modified pro bit model with a lagged dependent variable are somewhat similar, although the latter model improves forecasts at shorter horizons up to 3 months. Compared with other indicators, real M3 growth is a noisy indicator and does not provide much information about future recessions, whilst movements in the All-Share index can provide information for up to 12 months but does not do better than the yield curve. The index of leading economic indicators outperforms the yield spread in the short run up to 4 months but the spread performs better at longer horizons. Based on the results from the study, it appears that changes in monetary policy explain the yield spread's predictive power. This is because the yield spread loses its explanatory power when combined with a variable representing the monetary policy stance of the central bank.
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Towards a new approach for coastal governance with an assessment of the Plettenberg Bay nearshore linefisheries
- Authors: Smith, Martin Kyle Stratford
- Date: 2006
- Subjects: Fishery management -- South Africa -- Plettenberg Bay , Fisheries -- South Africa -- Plettenberg Bay , Reef fishes -- South Africa -- Plettenberg Bay , Coastal zone management -- South Africa -- Plettenberg Bay
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MSc
- Identifier: vital:5327 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1005173 , Fishery management -- South Africa -- Plettenberg Bay , Fisheries -- South Africa -- Plettenberg Bay , Reef fishes -- South Africa -- Plettenberg Bay , Coastal zone management -- South Africa -- Plettenberg Bay
- Description: Under the guidance of the new coastal management policies within South Africa this thesis advocates a more integrated, co-operative approach to local coastal management. The project aimed to acquire baseline information on the local nearshore fishery and resource state and to propose a set of indicators that could be incorporated into the new management strategy. To gather the required information the project was split into two parts: 1) An assessment of the local linefisheries and 2) A comparative study of the reef fish community structure between exploited and unexploited reefs. The local linefisheries were assessed through the use of launch records, commercial catch records, access point and boat based surveys. A questionnaire was used to gather data on catch and effort, fisher demographics, fisher attitudes towards and knowledge of the current management regulations, assess the efficacy of the fisheries inspectorate and highlight spatial areas of fishing pressure. A total of 252 interviews and catch inspections were conducted. Total effort for the ski-boat fishery estimated from the access point survey was 890 boat days.year⁻¹ or 3560 fisher days. year⁻¹ compared to 736 boat days.year⁻¹ or 2944 fisher days. year⁻¹ recorded in the launch records. Effort was seasonal with greater pressure occurring over the summer holiday period. Analysis of the catch showed that Merluccius capensis, Argyrozona argyrozona, Argyrosomus inodorus, Chrysoblephus laticeps and Atractoscion aequidens were the most frequently caught species. The overall CPUE was 3.00±5.54kg.fisher⁻¹.day⁻¹ or 4.71±4.117 fish.fisher⁻¹.day⁻¹. Estimated targeted CPUE was 0.91±0.67kg.fisher⁻¹.day⁻¹ or 0.97±0.77 fish.fisher⁻¹.day⁻¹ for C. laticeps, 8.47±8.57kg.fisher⁻¹.day⁻¹ or 1.24±1.16 fish.fisher⁻¹.day⁻¹ for A. aequidens and 2.05±3.78kg.fisher⁻¹.day⁻¹ or 1.10±1.80 fish.fisher⁻¹.day⁻¹ for A. inodorus. Issues identified included poor fisher knowledge regarding linefish regulations, the low occurrence of fishery inspections and a limited degree of noncompliance. Although most fishers supported the current linefish management regulations, when tested on the size limits, bag limits and closed seasons of their target species a high proportion of fishers did not know the regulations (recreational 64%, charter 53%, commercial 42%). Furthermore only 27% of fishers had had their catch inspected whilst fishing in Plettenberg Bay and the majority of these had only been inspected once. Just over half the interviewees (60%) indicated that fishing had deteriorated within Plettenberg Bay with fewer and smaller fish being caught. The most common causes cited for this decline were commercial and recreational overfishing respectively. Underwater point counts and experimental angling were used to rapidly assess the state of the reef fish resource in Plettenberg Bay through a comparative study of the community structure between two exploited sites in Plettenberg Bay and two protected sites within the Tsitsikamma National Park. Generalized linear modeling showed that relative density of certain species was significantly different between the protected reefs inside the TNP and those exploited reefs within Plettenberg Bay. Both P. rupestris and C. laticeps had greater densities within the protected area whilst Chisquared tests showed that the size frequency distributions were significantly different with larger size-classes and the maximum size of fish greater within the reserve. These trends were noted with both the underwater visual surveys and the experimental angling. Multi-dimensional scaling and cluster analysis showed that there was an overall difference in the community structure between the study sites. It is hypothesised that through removal of key reef species and larger individuals that fishing has directly and indirectly affected the overall community structure. Within a simple framework based on ecological, institutional and social sustainability domains along with the results of the study area, a set of indicators is proposed and the sustainability of the local fishery scored within a rapid assessment matrix. The socio-economic domain scored the highest (83%) whilst the institutional domain scored the lowest (8.3%) and the ecological domain scored 25%, giving a total sustainability score of 38.8%. The results of this matrix show that at present the local fishery is non-sustainable and in need of greater management. By synthesizing papers dealing with and based on the concepts involved in Integrated Coastal Management, a structured approach is proposed to developing and implementing more holistic local coastal governance. It is envisaged that the framework to implement such an approach should be through the development of a local Coastal Management Plan and a subsidiary Bay Management Plan. Although stakeholder participation and representation is an essential component in the development of these plans, it is recommended that the local municipality should be the lead agent and incorporate the plans into the local Integrated Development and Spatial Plans thereby gaining long term local government support.
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Towards a new approach for coastal governance with an assessment of the Plettenberg Bay shore-based linefishery
- Authors: King, Claire Margaret
- Date: 2006
- Subjects: Fishery management -- South Africa -- Plettenberg Bay , Fisheries -- South Africa -- Plettenberg Bay , Coastal zone management -- South Africa -- Plettenberg Bay
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MSc
- Identifier: vital:5326 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1005172 , Fishery management -- South Africa -- Plettenberg Bay , Fisheries -- South Africa -- Plettenberg Bay , Coastal zone management -- South Africa -- Plettenberg Bay
- Description: The overall aim of this thesis, as required by the funders, was to provide research that would contribute towards the development of a bay management plan, specifically information on the local fisheries. The thesis therefore includes an assessment of the local shore-based linefishery in terms of catch and effort and socio-economics, and the development of indicators from this information with which to assess the sustainability of the fishery. Finally an implementation strategy for an integrated coastal management approach for local resource governance is proposed The shore-based linefishery of Plettenberg Bay was assessed through a combination of roving creel and access point surveys which included questions aimed at the quantification of total effort, total catch and cpue, as well as the spatial trends in catch and effort. Angler demographics as well as opinions and knowledge of current fisheries regulations were obtained and the efficiency of the fishery inspectorate was assessed. The survey period extended from August 2003 to September 2004 during which 1189 angler interviews were conducted. Catch data obtained during this study was compared to catch data gathered during a research tagging program conducted in an area closed to fishing (Tsitsikamma National Park) and a semi-open area (Rebelsrus – Cape St. Francis), thereby highlighting differences in species composition, abundance and size distribution of certain species between areas of differing fishing pressures. The fishery surveys revealed that the shore-based fishery is primarily recreational (99%) and dominated by white males. Most anglers agreed with the current fisheries regulations (60%) and admitted to abiding by them, however when tested on the regulations of their target species, their knowledge was poor. Effort in the fishery was highly seasonal with peaks coinciding with major school holidays. Total annual effort was estimated at 102 566 angler-hours, with distinct spatial patterns in effort. Total annual catch for the Plettenberg Bay shore-based linefishery was estimated at 31 217 fish.year⁻¹ with a total mass of 13.6 tons. Thirty-six fish species (26 teleost species and 10 elasmobranchs species) were identified during the survey period with Blacktail Diplodus capensis, Strepie Sarpa salpa, Red tjor-tjor Pagellus natalensis, Shad Pomatomus saltatrix and Sand steenbras Lithognathus mormyrus being the five most commonly caught species. Only 32% of interviewed anglers were successful in catching a fish with just 22% catching their primary target species. In addition, a large proportion of the anglers (69%) reported a decline in catch rate, with most blaming the commercial sector as a reason for the decline. The overall catch rate was (cpue) 0.374 fish.angler.hour⁻¹ or 170 grams.angler.hour⁻¹, considerably lower than that obtained from the fishery exempt area (TNP = 1. 02 fish.angler.hour⁻¹) and the partially exploited area (Rebelsrus = 0.91 fish.angler.hour⁻¹). In terms of species composition the most obvious difference between the three areas was the low proportion of non-migratory reef-associated species like red roman, poenskop, John brown, santer and bronze bream in Plettenberg Bay. Size comparisons revealed that the majority of species (particularly reef-associated species) were larger in the TNP than both the semi-exploited (Rebelsrus) and exploited area (Plettenberg Bay). Collectively theses findings suggest that certain species have been locally depleted, that recreational fishing has impacted heavily on the fish stocks and that even partial closure or limited access to an area can offer protection. From the results key issues were identified and sustainability indicators proposed according to the three sustainability domains (ecological, institutional and social) proposed by Pajak (2000). Within the ecological domain the most pertinent issue was the low catch rate, particularly for reef-associated species. Indicators to track these issues included: percentage of successful trips (where fish were caught), percentage of anglers that reached their daily bag limits and the proportion of the overall catch that comprised larger, more desirable species. Institutionally the most pertinent issue was the apparent inability of management institutions to manage effectively marine resources within Plettenberg Bay. Indicators within this domain included the proportion of anglers who were inspected, the existence of a localised management plan and an associated monitoring programme. Socially the fishery proved to be fairly sustainable. Indicators included in this domain were the proportion of subsistence anglers in the local fishing community, the percentage of correct answers pertaining to current fishery regulations, the level of noncompliance and the percentage of undersize fish retained. Aggregation of all the indicators within a sustainability matrix revealed that the Plettenberg Bay shore-based linefishery was unsustainable and thus requires increased local management effort. Since there is no local management strategy in place, an integrated coastal management approach for the governance of the coastal resources in Plettenberg Bay has been proposed. The development of a Coastal Management Plan and a subsidiary Bay Management Plan provide the frameworks within which management strategies can be put into operation.
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Towards a post-sacrificial theory of identity formation
- Authors: Menezes, Natalie
- Date: 2006
- Subjects: Sacrifice -- Philosophy , Violence -- Philosophy , Forgiveness -- Philosophy , Philosophy -- Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MA
- Identifier: vital:2862 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1007626 , Sacrifice -- Philosophy , Violence -- Philosophy , Forgiveness -- Philosophy , Philosophy -- Africa
- Description: In this thesis I shall outline various modernist authors' arguments that collectivities (such as ethnic groups, nations, states and cultures) and subjectivities employ sacrificial violence to establish and assert their identity where identity is inescapably (?) understood in terms of the sovereignty of the collective or the post-Oedipal autonomy of the individual. To this end, violence has been posited as a historical and conceptual inevitability and is set as the default-state of human nature and politics. In recent times, protesting voices (from post-feminist, post-colonial, post-modern and the emerging human rights discourses) have begun to rigorously contest the notion of violence as the default-state. As a result, the legitimacy of sacrifice as the primary modus to an autonomous selfhood has been radically problematised. I believe that a comprehensive understanding of the nature of this crisis of identity formation , and the possibility of transcending it, is to be found in the paradigmatic shift away from Newtonian thought toward a post-Newtonian worldview. In seeking to challenge the assumption of violence-as-default, I shall translate the comprehensive sacrificial nature of collective identity and subjectivity into a complexity-based model that allowed me to make three crucial conceptual moves toward a comprehensive understanding of post-sacrificial identities that occupy an important place in a post-Newtonian world. First, it will allow me to challenge the assumptions that supported the Hobbesian myth of autonomy/sovereignty sacrificially achieved by charting the ontological shift that compels us to understand "entities" (be it a cell, an individual or a state) not in terms of autonomy but interdependence. Secondly, it provides the conceptual tools needed to understand the systemic nature of sacrificial violence by reading subjectivity violence and collectivity violence in terms of their organic self-similarity. This will equip me to comprehensively explore a postsacrificial epistemology valid for both collective identities and subjectivity. Thirdly, I propose a model of post-sacrificial identities that are created and sustained at the edge of chaos through the dynamic interplay of order and disorder that reconciles creative and destructive forces in a generative unity. I believe that this post-Newtonian reading will clear the conceptual space needed to suggest there might yet be hope for a future that does not embrace violence as default-state.
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Understanding educator-mediated conflict resolution in a preschool environment: the experiences and feelings of preschool educators
- Authors: Cakwe, Mandisa
- Date: 2006
- Subjects: Education, Preschool , Early childhood education , Preschool children , Conflict management
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MA
- Identifier: vital:2943 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002452 , Education, Preschool , Early childhood education , Preschool children , Conflict management
- Description: This thesis discusses the experiences and feelings of preschool educators when resolving situations of conflict between preschool children. Data was collected by means of semistructured individual interviews with preschool educators and a video recorder recording conflict situations among preschool children focusing on educator resolution strategies. Grounded theory was used as a data analysis technique to analyse the data collected. The analysis revealed that the preschool educators under study do not use mediation as a conflict resolution strategy but use various strategies that include, prevention, directive approach, arbitration, myths and threats and rules. Data analysis also revealed that these preschool educators encounter experiences and feelings before, while and after intervening in the conflict situations of children. These findings imply that preschool educators lack the professional skill of conflict resolution. This suggests an urgent need of restructuring of the preschool educator’s training to include conflict resolution training as one of their important component. Educators and parents also need to be consulted or involved in the process of restructuring the training.
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Understanding workplace-based learning contexts to inform curriculum development: the case of a Level 5 Environmental Education, Training and Development Practice Qualification
- Authors: Wigley, Jonathan James
- Date: 2006
- Subjects: South African Qualifications Authority National Qualifications Framework (South Africa) Environmental education -- Study and teaching -- South Africa Curriculum planning -- South Africa Competency-based education -- South Africa Vocational qualifications -- South Africa Education and state -- South Africa Education -- Standards -- South Africa Education, Higher -- South Africa -- Standards
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MEd
- Identifier: vital:1808 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1003694
- Description: This is an interpretive case study that explores the workplace epistemologies and institutional structures of two nested cases within the broader context of the Environmental Education, Training and Development Practices - Level 5 qualification (EETDP qualification) that is registered on the South African National Qualifications Framework. The study provides insights to inform EETDP curriculum development that is enabling of reflexive environmental education and training processes. The study develops an understanding of workplace epistemologies related to environment and education, the structural factors that enable and constrain agency of environmental educators and the role of reflexivity in practice and in education in two nested cases: the agricultural and local government sectors. It draws on findings from workshops, semistructured interviews and document analysis of education materials in these two nested cases. The study notes that there are diverse and seemingly ambiguous understandings of both environment/sustainability and education processes in the two nested cases. This ambiguity seems to relate to environmental education practitioners drawing on different forms of knowledge, including differentiated or theoretical knowledge, and 'common-sense' ways of knowing, in their education practice. The understandings related to theoretical knowledge are, in both nested cases, dominated by scientific or technical understandings where environment is understood in the terms of the natural sciences and education is seen in instrumentalist terms as the transfer of mainly technical environmental knowledge to learners in order to effect behaviour change. The study opens up deeper understandings of the epistemological, socio-cultural and structural features of context, in the two nested cases, that have a bearing on environmental educators. It provides insights into workplace structures that can be both enabling and constraining of agency and notes that the causal power of structures to enable or constrain does not lie only in the structures but also in relation to the intentionality of the environmental education practitioners/agents. The study then examines reflexivity as one of the means through which environmental educators in the nested cases are able to consider appropriate actions or responses to structural constraints or enablements. Based on the insights offered by the research findings, the study makes recommendations for the EETDP curriculum development. It frames these recommendations within an understanding of curriculum as a contextualised social process that involves structural aspects of curriculum such as materials, as well as socio-cultural processes such as learning on the course and in the workplace.
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Unstable ironies: narrative instability in Herman Charles Bosman's "Oom Schalk Lourens" series
- Authors: Davis, Rebecca
- Date: 2006
- Subjects: Bosman, Herman Charles, 1905-1951 -- Criticism and interpretation , Irony in literature , Narration (Rhetoric)
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MA
- Identifier: vital:2215 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002258 , Bosman, Herman Charles, 1905-1951 -- Criticism and interpretation , Irony in literature , Narration (Rhetoric)
- Description: This thesis examines the narrative situation within Herman Charles Bosman’s “Oom Schalk Lourens” series of stories, focussing on the nature of the relationship between author and narrator. In particular, it seeks to trace the source of the multiple ironies at work in the texts. It has been customary for critics in the past to claim that the irony within the stories stems from Bosman, operating authorially ‘above’ Oom Schalk. In terms of this theory, Oom Schalk is read as being largely unaware of the inconsistencies and contradictions within his narrative. It is the claim of this thesis, however, that Oom Schalk is the self-aware creator of the texts’ ironies much of the time. Chapter 1 commences with an attempt at defining irony, and provides a brief overview of the history of its deployment within South African literature before discussing the literary genre which Bosman was to exploit as his ironic vehicle: the “oral-style” short story. Chapter 2 examines Wayne C. Booth’s notions of “stable” and “unstable” irony: the irony of the Oom Schalk stories has, in the past, been classified as belonging to the former category, but this thesis attempts to show that its inconsistent deployment within the stories consigns it more accurately to the latter. Chapter 3 offers an assessment of the extrinsic contexts relevant to the analysis: the context of the stories’ publication, and the likely composition of Bosman’s reading public. Chapter 4 begins to examine the distance between implied author and implied narrator in the stories. Chapters 5, 6 and 7 subject stories dealing with the themes of art, race and land to detailed analysis in order to examine the shifting – and progressively, though unevenly, diminishing – distance between Bosman and Oom Schalk. The thesis concludes that the degree to which the ironic distance between author and narrator fluctuates within, and between, the stories, results in a narrative situation which must be classified as fundamentally unstable.
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Using experiential learning to facilitate pharmacy students' understanding of patients' medication practice in chronic illness
- Authors: Williams, Kevin F
- Date: 2006
- Subjects: Chronic diseases -- Chemotherapy Chronically ill -- Care Pharmacy -- Study and teaching Pharmacy -- Practice Social medicine Health -- Sociological aspects Diseases -- Sociological aspects Health -- Psychological aspects
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Doctoral , PhD
- Identifier: vital:1322 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1003955
- Description: This study originates from experiences which led me to question the way pharmacists are equipped to advise and support the medicine-taking practice of patients using chronic medication. The study offers a critical theoretical consideration of underlying perspectives informing pharmacy education. I propose following a critical realist ontological perspective, a social realist understanding of social structure and human agency, and a sociocultural epistemology. Based on these perspectives, I consider a sociological critique of ‘health’, ‘disease’, ‘illness’ and ‘sickness’ perspectives on medicine-taking, and of pharmacy as a profession. I then propose an experiential learning approach, with an emphasis on developing reflexivity through affective learning. I follow this with an illustrative case study. Following a critical discourse analysis of student texts from the case study, I conclude that there is evidence that experiential learning may prove useful in developing pharmacy students’ reflexive competency to support the provision of pharmaceutical care to patients using chronic medications.
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Voltammetric analysis of pesticides and their degradation: A case study of Amitraz and its degradants
- Authors: Brimecombe, Rory Dennis
- Date: 2006
- Subjects: Hydrolysis , Biodegradation , Voltammetry , Pesticides -- Biodegradation , Pesticides -- Environmental aspects , Acaricides , Acaricides -- Physiological effect
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MSc
- Identifier: vital:4131 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1015724
- Description: Amitraz is a formamide acaricide used predominantly in the control of ectoparasites in livestock and honeybees. Amitraz hydrolysis is rapid and occurs under acidic conditions, exposure to sunlight and biodegradation by microorganisms. The main hydrolysis product of amitraz, 2,4-dimethylaniline, is recalcitrant in the environment and toxic to humans. An electrochemical method for the determination of total amitraz residues and its final breakdown product, 2,4-dimethylaniline, in spent cattle dip, is presented. Cyclic voltammetry at a glassy carbon electrode showed the irreversible oxidation of amitraz and 2,4-dimethylaniline. A limit of detection in the range of 8.5 x 10⁻⁸ M for amitraz and 2 x 10⁻⁸ M for 2,4-dimethylaniline was determined using differential pulse voltammetry. Feasibility studies in which the effect of supporting electrolyte type and pH had on electroanalysis of amitraz and its degradants, showed that pH affects current response as well as the potential at which amitraz and its degradants are oxidised. Britton-Robinson buffer was found to be the most suitable supporting electrolyte for detection of amitraz and its degradants in terms of sensitivity and reproducibility. Studies performed using environmental samples showed that the sensitivity and reproducibility of amitraz and 2,4-dimethylaniline analyses in spent cattle dip were comparable to analyses of amitraz and 2,4-dimethylaniline performed in Britton-Robinson buffer. In addition, the feasibility qf measuring amitraz and 2,4-dimethylaniline in environmental samples was assessed and compared to amitraz and 2,4-dimethylaniline analyses in Britton-Robinson buffer. Amitraz and 2,4-dimethylaniline were readily detectable in milk and honey. Furthermore, it was elucidated that 2,4-dimethylaniline can be metabolised to 3-methylcatechol by Pseudomonas species and the proposed breakdown pathway is presented. The biological degradation of amitraz and subsequent formation of 2,4-dimethylaniline was readily monitored in spent cattle dip. The breakdown of amitraz to 2,4-dimethylaniline and then to 3-MC was monitored using cyclic voltammetry.
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