Liquidity shocks and capital market efficiency in South Africa
- Authors: Matapuri, Dexter Tinotenda Kushinga
- Date: 2023-10-13
- Subjects: Liquidity (Economics) , Stock exchanges South Africa , Insolvency , Securities South Africa , Capital market South Africa , Investments, Foreign
- Language: English
- Type: Academic theses , Master's theses , text
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/419610 , vital:71659
- Description: Financial markets are dynamic in nature. As such, one way to keep up with their plethora of variables is to conduct research and seek understanding on how they all work together. Understanding financial market mechanics is the key to achieving and maintaining efficient capital markets. The goal of many economies is to have efficient capital markets mainly because they entail economic growth. One of the common avenues here being foreign direct investments. Therefore, over the years, a lot of financial economics research has been conducted on how best to attain financial market development which ultimately yields capital market efficiency. The opposite is also true. This research therefore set out to study the impact of liquidity shocks on capital market efficiency, more specifically stock market efficiency. As such, the overarching research goal was to determine the link between liquidity shocks and stock market efficiency in South Africa. Furthermore, the research also tested whether there is a homogenous impact exerted by liquidity shocks on the JSE Financial 15, JSE Industrial 25 and JSE Resource 20 indices. The arguments and thus conclusions of the research were constructed based on existing theories such as the Efficient Market hypothesis, Behavioural Finance and the Adaptive Market Hypothesis. Literature and existing empirical evidence related to the topic were also analysed and used for the same purpose. Econometric methods used to achieve these research goals include the time series and panel ARDL, impulse response and variance decomposition tests and the Granger Causality tests. The research found that liquidity shocks do impact stock market efficiency in South Africa in both the short run and long run. The direction of the impact was noted to vary with time and dependent on the liquidity shock proxy. Key findings here were that liquidity shocks lower JSE All-Share index efficiency in the short run thus allowing market participants to beat the market in the initial phases of a liquidity shock. Adding on, it was also found that illiquidity shocks lower efficiency for the JSE Financial 15 and Industrial 25 indices in the short run. In the long run, stock market efficiency is enhanced no matter the source of the shock. As such, the research recommended that regulatory policies should focus on liquidity shocks in the short run for the JSE All-Share index and on illiquidity shocks in the short run for the Financial 15 and Industrial 25 indices. , Thesis (MCom) -- Faculty of Commerce, Economics and Economic History, 2023
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The adoption of international financial reporting standards and foreign direct investment inflows: the moderating effect of the institutional environment in Africa
- Authors: Simbi, Chipo
- Date: 2023-10-13
- Subjects: International Financial Reporting Standards , Investments, Foreign , Institutional infrastructure , Accounting Law and legislation , Auditing Law and legislation , Generalized method of moments , Difference in differences
- Language: English
- Type: Academic theses , Doctoral theses , text
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/419230 , vital:71627 , DOI 10.21504/10962/419230
- Description: Globalisation has created a need for an international accounting language to facilitate the smooth flow of trade across countries. In 2003, in an effort to establish a global financial reporting language, the International Accounting Standards Board (IASB) developed a single set of high-quality accounting principles known as the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS). Over the last decade, several African countries have adopted IFRS, and Africa has become the second-largest adopting continent after Europe. IFRS promotes improved quality of disclosure of accounting transactions, reduces information asymmetry between preparers and users of financial information, lowers the cost of investing, and breaks down information barriers to cross-border investment. Researchers suggest many benefits of IFRS adoption for macroeconomic indicators such as Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). The reduction in information acquisition and processing costs which translates into the reduction in investment costs, has been cited by most researchers. Researchers have argued, however, that the economic benefits of IFRS in Africa depend on the strength of the institutional environment. They also argue that the Western environment in which the IFRS was developed differs from the African environment. Thus, the universal approach of the IASB may not be appropriate due to the historical, social, economic and political context of African countries. The impact of the adoption of IFRS by African countries requires further examination, particularly as a weak institutional environment confronts many African countries. Three research questions are designed for this study; (1) Is there a significant change in FDI inflows for IFRS adopters in selected African countries after the adoption? (2) Is there a significant change in FDI inflows due to the institutional environment? (3) Does the institutional environment in IFRS-adopting countries moderate the effect of IFRS on FDI in selected African countries? The present study is underpinned by the new institutional theory, the information asymmetry theory, the eclectic theory and the signalling theory, each of which provide reasons why African countries have adopted IFRS. Nine hypotheses are developed, based on the research questions, and tested using the Systems General Method of Moments and the Difference-in-Difference method. The study uses data from 26 African countries, 15 adopting and 11 non-adopting countries, over the period 1996 - 2018. First, the study establishes that the adoption of IFRS positively and significantly affects FDI inflows into the selected sample of African countries. Second, the study concludes that legal enforcement, accounting and auditing standards enforcement, and language origin positively and significantly impact FDI inflows into these countries. Legal origin, however, has a positive but insignificant association with FDI inflows. Third, legal enforcement, historical ties, accounting and auditing enforcement and the quality of the institutional environment are found to moderate the effect of IFRS adoption on FDI inflows. These results indicate that IFRS is a crucial determinant of FDI inflows into African countries, but a supportive institutional environment is needed for African countries to attract FDI inflows after adoption. The results contribute to the accounting and finance literature on FDI into African countries, and may assist the investment community to assess the institutional risk associated with investing in IFRS adopting African countries. , Thesis (PhD) -- Faculty of Commerce, Accounting, 2023
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The yield spread as a predictor for buy or sell signals for sectoral indices of the JSE
- Authors: Roeber, Christine
- Date: 2023-10-13
- Subjects: Yield curve , Rate of return South Africa , Yield spread , Interest rate , Johannesburg Stock Exchange
- Language: English
- Type: Academic theses , Master's theses , text
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/419687 , vital:71666
- Description: The predictive nature of the yield curve has been of interest to researchers for years. In this thesis, the evidence for the yield curve as a predictor is examine, specifically as a predictor for bear markets in the JSE stock market for 8 sub-sectoral indices. The study explores a dynamic market timing strategy for timing the South African stock market compared to a normal buy-and-hold strategy. First, probit models are estimated for each of the sectoral indices which did not prove to have tracked well all the bear market phases. Then a dynamic market timing portfolio is simulated against a buy-and-hold only strategy, the dynamic market timing portfolio proved to have outperformed a buy-and-hold strategy for almost all the indices. Thus, a Henriksson-Merton parametric model test which tests for market timing ability was done on these sub-indices. The research finds that the yield curve in South Africa is not a useful tool for a buy-sell strategy for most of the sub-sectoral indices of the JSE. , Thesis (MCom) -- Faculty of Commerce, Economics and Economic History, 2023
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