Monetary policy transmission in South Africa: a comparative analysis of credit and exchange rate channels
- Authors: Sebitso, Nathaniel Maemu
- Date: 2011
- Subjects: Monetary policy -- South Africa , Foreign exchange market -- South Africa , Financial crises -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic conditions , South Africa -- Economic policy , Banks and banking -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1129 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1020851
- Description: This thesis focuses on monetary policy transmission and particularly seeks to examine the impact of credit and exchange rate channels of monetary policy transmission in the South African economy. South Africa's monetary policy has gone through several changes over the past thirty years. In this respect, there is a need for robust empirical evidence on the effects of these channels on inflation and output. The thesis employs a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model to identify monetary transmission in South Africa for the period 1994:q4 - 2008:q2. The form of the SVAR used in this thesis is based on the fact that South Africa is a small open economy, which means that external shocks are an important driver of domestic activity. The impulse responses and variance decomposition results show that the repo rate, credit and exchange rate play a role in terms of their impact on inflation and output. The dynamic responses to the identified monetary policy shock are consistent with standard theory and highlight the importance of the interest rate channel. A shock to the interest rate, increasing it by one standard deviation, results in a persistent fall in credit. The response of output is immediate as it falls and bottoms out within the second year. Inflation shows a lagged response, it is positive within the first year as the exchange rate depreciates but in subsequent quarters inflation responds negatively as expected. Inflation falls and reaches a minimum by approximately eight quarters then moves towards baseline. The exchange rate shows delayed appreciation. The shock to the repo interest rate leads to an immediate depreciation of the exchange rate in the first two quarters as output declines, followed by an appreciation in the third and sixth quarter. Due to larger error bounds the impact of the repo rate on the exchange rate could be less effective within the first two years. The impulse responses suggest that monetary policy plays an effective role in stabilising the economy in response to a credit shock, notwithstanding large standard error bounds. Hence, the monetary authority reacts by increasing the repo rate as a result of inflation. The impact of credit on output is positive but is offset to some extent by the rising repo rate. In response to the rand appreciation, the monetary authority reduces the repo rate significantly during the first year with the maximum impact in the second year and then returns to baseline thereafter. Therefore the monetary authority reduces the repo rate, probably to stabilise falling inflation. The result shows that inflation falls as a result of the rand appreciation. A shock to the exchange rate causes a rise in output, though small in magnitude, which is persistent but reaches baseline at the end of the period. This result could reflect the effects of the resultant fall in the repo rate and a persistent rise in credit over the whole period, which tends to increase output. The exchange rate shows an obvious and stronger immediate impact on inflation compared to credit impact on inflation. However, the credit shock has an obvious and stronger impact on output compared to an exchange rate impact on output. However, the large standard error bounds may imply that credit and exchange rate channels are not as effective in the short run. It is important to note that the results are based on the SVAR model estimated with percentage growth rate of the variables. The variance decomposition result is in line with the impulse responses and shows that the exchange rate and credit channels could be important transmission channels in South Africa over the chosen sample period. The exchange rate and credit shocks show a stronger effect on inflation than on output, looking at both the impulse responses and variance decomposition results. The reaction of the repo interest rate to the credit and exchange rate shocks comes out as expected. The repo rate increases as a result of an increase in the credit and falls as a result of the currency appreciation.
- Full Text:
South African money market volatility, asymmetry and retail interest pass-through
- Authors: Fadiran, Gideon Oluwatobi
- Date: 2011
- Subjects: Money market -- South Africa Interest rates -- South Africa Monetary policy -- South Africa Econometric models Banks and banking -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:993 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002728
- Description: The purpose of this paper is to examine the interest rate transmission mechanism for South Africa as an emerging economy in a pre-repo and repo system. It explains how the money market rate is transmitted to the retail interest rates both in the long-run and short-run and tests the symmetric and asymmetric interest rate pass-through using the Scholnick (1996) ECM and the Wang and Lee (2009) ECM-EGARCH (1, 1)-M methodology. This permitted the examination of the impact of interest rate volatility, along with the leverage effect. An incomplete pass-through is found in the short-run. From the entire sample period, a symmetric adjustment is found in the deposit rate, which had upward rigidity adjustment, while an asymmetric adjustment is found in the lending rate, with a downward rigidity adjustment. All the adjustments supported the collusive pricing arrangements. According to the conditional variance estimation of the ECM-EGARCH (1, 1), negative volatility impact and leverage effect are present and influential only in the deposit interest rate adjustment process in South Africa.
- Full Text:
The contribution made by Mr Justice EF Watermeyer to South African tax jurisprudence
- Authors: Thackwell, Robert Colin
- Date: 2011
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:881 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1001635
- Description: The objective of this thesis is to highlight the colossal contributions made by the late Justice Watermeyer to South African tax jurisprudence. His contributions are viewed from a practical application point of view as well as from a statutory interpretative perspective. The style and technique with which he delivered his judgments are also considered to be a contribution in their own right. The core of this thesis is the analysis of seven of Justice Watermeyer‟s most influential judgments. The development and application of the principle or principles developed in each of these seven judgments is then traced chronologically through case law up until recent judgments. It is most notable that each and every phrase contained in section 11(a) of the Income Tax Act has been interpreted by Justice Watermeyer. These interpretations are still viewed as correct statements of the applicable law and will continue to be referred to on a regular basis given the fact that section 11(a) is one of the most widely contested provisions in the Income Tax Act. Several references to his approach to statutory interpretation are made through the course of the case analyses. Whilst significant evidence of a purposive oriented approach to interpretation appears in some judgments, such evidence is lacking in others. An absolute or conclusive submission in terms of his approach to statutory interpretation is not sufficiently supported. His style of judgment is also referred to and commented on, with particular focus placed on his use of illustrative examples. The contribution to South African tax law by Justice Watermeyer is found to be nothing short of enormous. He was and continues to be influential with respect to section 11(a),the definition of gross income in section 1, common law principles of tax avoidance as well as the interpretation of statutory laws of tax avoidance. It is anticipated that some of his interpretations with respect to statutory rules of tax avoidance will be referred to when the relatively new anti-avoidance provisions become the subject of litigation.
- Full Text:
The impact of the new dividend withholding tax on regulated investment intermediaries
- Authors: Schafer, Carolyn
- Date: 2011
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:880 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1001634
- Description: The introduction of the proposed new Dividends Tax will have a significant impact on financial institutions such as Collective Investment Schemes, Linked Investment Service Providers and Long-term Insurers. The reason for this is that South African listed companies declaring local dividends will not necessarily have all the details of and know the identity of their shareholders. These financial institutions may be regarded as regulated intermediaries in terms of the new Dividends Tax legislation and therefore may have the responsibility of withholding the Dividends Tax from dividends received on behalf of their clients, who may in most cases be the beneficial owners of the underlying equity shares. The motivating factor for the research is the fact that there does not appear to be any guidance on the impact of the new Dividends Tax on financial institutions, since the Dividends Tax is new legislation. The research problem addressed in this thesis is how the systems and processes of a financial institution will be affected by the implementation of the new Dividends Tax. The research took the form of a case study designed to investigate the impact of the Dividends Tax on the financial institution at which the researcher is employed. The data required for the research was collected by means of a study of the relevant legislation enacted in connection with the topic, journal articles in financial/tax journals, as well as articles published in the media. The systems and processes presently in place, as well as the changes to these systems that will be needed to accommodate the new dividend tax were ascertained by means of in-depth interviews with relevant staff at the financial institution. In addition, the researcher also applied her personal knowledge of the business of the financial institution at which she works to the problem. As a result of the research it was determined that a Collective Investment Scheme, Linked Investment Service Provider and Long-Term Insurer will all be regarded as regulated intermediaries for the purposes of the new dividend withholding tax. This means that these financial institutions will be required to withhold Dividends Tax from dividends paid to their clients and pay this Dividends Tax so withheld to SARS. Furthermore, the findings of the research confirmed that the new Dividends Tax will have a significant impact on the client services department in areas such as notifying clients, training of client service staff, handling of declaration of exemption forms received from clients, amending client statements and tax certificates (to cater for the new Dividends Tax). In addition to this, it was ascertained that significant systems development will be required by these financial institutions in order to comply with the new Dividends Tax legislation. This would include the development of data input fields to enable users to capture the relevant information required and development of the system to enable it to flag local dividends received to which the Dividends Tax applies. The system would also need to cater for Secondary Tax on Companies credits as well as foreign tax rebates. The system should also be able to calculate the amount of Dividends Tax to withhold per dividend received by a client, as well as be able to handle the payment of the Dividends Tax to SARS and the refund to clients of Dividends Tax over deducted. It is essential that systems are able to flag the correct date of payment of the dividend so that the Dividends Tax can be paid over timeously to SARS in order to avoid interest and penalties being levied. To summarise, the new Dividends Tax has a significant impact on these financial institutions in areas such as client services, administration and system development.
- Full Text:
The relationship between financial development and manufacturing sector growth: evidence from Southern African Customs Union countries
- Authors: Moshabesha, Mosili
- Date: 2011
- Subjects: Economic development -- Case studies -- Africa, Southern Entrepreneurship -- Case studies -- Africa, Southern Southern African Customs Union
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:990 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002725
- Description: Extensive research has been done on the relationship between financial development (FD) and growth (with the main focus on economic growth). Theoretical models and most of the conclusions reached stipulate that the development of a financial system is one of the essential ingredients for economic growth. A developed financial system is able to provide financial services efficiently to the real sector. This study examines the relationship between FD and manufacturing sector growth of the SACU countries. The study first reviews the theoretical and empirical literature of FD and growth (economic and manufacturing sector). This gives a full understanding of the topic before attempting to empirically study it. It also helps in the selection process of the model and variables to be employed in the study. A balanced panel for four SACU countries, namely Botswana, Lesotho, RSA and Swaziland, for the period 1976 to 2008 was estimated using Zellner‟s Seemingly Unrelated Regression Estimation (SURE) method. Namibia was omitted because of limited data. The SURE model was selected because it performs better than ordinary least squares (OLS) estimation of individual equations in cases where the countries studied can be affected by similar external shocks because they are in the same economic region and also have country specific structural differences which could affect their economic growth. Two measures of FD were used: credit to the private sector provided by commercial banks (FIC) and the ratio of liquid liabilities of commercial banks to GDP (LL). Manufacturing sector growth was measured by manufacturing value added to GDP. The results of the relationship between manufacturing growth and FD were very weak across the countries. The model that used FIC performed better, there was a negative significant relationship found in RSA and Swaziland, while with the model that used LL, all the countries gave an insignificant relationship. The results for Swaziland were very consistent with the past findings of the relationship between FD and economic growth in the country (for example Aziakpono (2005a)). This may be because of the high share of the manufacturing sector in GDP. Theory suggests that a well-developed financial system will have a positive impact on growth, but this was not the case in RSA and Botswana, where in some cases FD had a negative impact on the growth of the sector. The analysis of the countries‟ manufacturing sector development shows that the sector plays an important role in the economies of the SACU countries, especially in terms of employment and exports. The coefficients of trade openness are generally positive, though not significant in some cases. The other control variables gave mixed results across the counties and across the models. Based on the findings, the countries have to develop strategies that will improve entrepreneurial skills. Also the financial development in the small SACU countries is essential in order for all the sectors in the economy to benefit from the financial sector and in turn increase economic growth.
- Full Text:
The short-term effect on shareholder wealth of banking mergers and acquisitions during periods of real economic expansion and contraction
- Authors: Kerr, Gordon Roy
- Date: 2011
- Subjects: Bank mergers , Consolidation and merger of corporations , Business cycles , Corporations -- Investor relations , Stockholder wealth , Rate of return
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1108 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1013442
- Description: Controversy currently exists over whether abnormal returns (ARs) are earned by shareholders of bidder and target banks through a Merger and Acquisition (M&A). The state of the economy in which the firms operate is often mentioned as a reason for firms engaging in M&As, however, the extent to which economies influence the ARs of shareholders is unknown. Following MacKinlay (1997), the aim of this study is to determine the average ARs earned or lost by shareholders of several banks around the world during an M&A. The results obtained may indicate that shareholders of bidding firms consider an M&A to be a wealth-destroying event irrespective of the state of the economy. It would seem that target firms’ shareholders consider M&As to be wealth-creating events when they occur during a period of real economic expansion. However, during periods of real economic contraction, target firms’ shareholders consider M&As to be wealth-destroying events. Thus, the state of an economy during an M&A can affect average ARs considerably.
- Full Text:
The strategic management of intellectual capital : a case study in the banking and financial services sector in Zambia
- Authors: Banda, Japhet Mathias
- Date: 2011
- Subjects: Intellectual capital -- Management , Intellectual capital -- Zambia , Banks and banking -- Zambia , Financial services industry -- Management -- Zambia
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1178 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002795 , Intellectual capital -- Management , Intellectual capital -- Zambia , Banks and banking -- Zambia , Financial services industry -- Management -- Zambia
- Description: Fundamental changes in the global economy are changing the basis of organisational competitive advantage. The challenge in attaining a competitive advantage is characterised by factors such as increased competition, market volatility, geographically dispersed operations, customer awareness, raising workforce diversity and stringent regulatory regimes. These factors have driven, and in turn have been driven by, an increasing complexity of products, services and the processes that create value, resulting in changes in the structural and functional dimensions of the organisation. Business executives and academics recognise the shift in value creating assets from the traditional land, labour and capital to intangible assets such as knowledge and information becoming the most important resources an organisation can muster.The combination and integration of intangible assets such as human resources, structural and relational resources has been grouped under the umbrella of intellectual capital. This study comprises of a single descriptive case study analysis to ascertain how intellectual capital is managed strategically to gain a competitive advantage in an organisation in the banking and financial services sector in Zambia. Based on document review and semi-structured interviews, this thesis investigated the extent to which an organisation in the banking and financial services sector in Zambia leveraged intellectual capital to gain competitive advantage. In this study it was found that there is a low level appreciation of the intellectual capital phenomenon as a strategic management tool in the participating organisation. However, the organisation has adopted aspects of intellectual capital and has implemented them successfully accounting for the organisation‘s competitive edge in the market.
- Full Text:
Volatility transmission across South African financial markets: does the bull – bear distinction matter?
- Authors: Jaramba, Toddy
- Date: 2011
- Subjects: Finance -- South Africa , Financial institutions -- South Africa , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Portfolio management -- South Africa , Stock exchanges -- South Africa , Foreign exchange -- Mathematical models , Bond market -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1106 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1013396
- Description: The volatility transmission in financial markets has important implications for investment decision making, portfolio diversification and overall macroeconomic stability. This paper analyses volatility transmission across four South African financial markets that is the stock, bond, money and foreign exchange markets, using daily data for the period 2000-2010. It also shows whether the volatilities in the SA financial markets present a different behaviour in bull and bear market phases. The effects of the international markets volatility to the local markets volatility was also looked at in this study. To obtain estimates of market volatility, the study experimented with various volatility models that include the GARCH, EGARCH and TARCH. To examine volatility interaction and the transmission of volatility shocks, a VAR model was estimated together with block exogeneity, impulse response and variance decomposition. The study found that there is limited volatility transmission across the SA financial markets. The study also found that the money market is the most exogenous of all markets since the other three financial markets volatility is insignificant to the money market (see impulse response results). For the bond market, volatility transmission was characterized with a decreasing trend. With regard to international markets volatility, it concluded that, the shocks in the international markets will eventually affect the movement in the local markets. The results also highlighted that, world and local markets are important in accelerating the volatility transmission in SA financial markets depending on whether they are in their bull or bear phases. In the case of South Africa, the study found that volatility transmission across markets is higher during bear market periods than bull market periods. Basing on the study results which show that the volatility transmission is limited across SA financial markets, the implication to local and international investors is that there is a greater potential for diversifying risk by investing in different South African financial markets.
- Full Text:
Day-of-the-week effect : evidence from nine sectors of the South African stock market
- Authors: Mbululu, Douglas
- Date: 2010
- Subjects: Stock exchanges -- South Africa , Johannesburg Stock Exchange , Stocks -- Prices -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1024 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002759 , Stock exchanges -- South Africa , Johannesburg Stock Exchange , Stocks -- Prices -- South Africa
- Description: The day-of-the-week effect in share prices is one of the most extensively researched anomalies, especially in developed markets. However, emerging African stock markets have received little attention in this regard. This study breaks new ground in using non-parametric tests directly on skewness and kurtosis to examine whether the day-of-he-week effect exists in nine listed stock market sector indices of the JSE Securities Exchange of South Africa (JSE). Different day-of-the-week effects were found to be present in the statistical moments of returns of these nine JSE sectors
- Full Text:
Farm wages and working conditions in the Albany District, 1957-2008
- Authors: Roberts, Tamaryn Jean
- Date: 2010
- Subjects: Agricultural laborers -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape , Agricultural wages -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape , Agricultural laborers -- Legal status, laws, etc. -- South Africa , Agricultural laborers -- Protection -- South Africa , Agricultural laws and legislation -- South Africa , Labour laws and legislation -- South Africa , Labour economics -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:978 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002712
- Description: Agriculture is a major employer of labour in South Africa with about 8.8% of the total labour force directly involved in agricultural production (StatsSA, 2007a). Farm wages and working conditions in the Albany district were researched in 1957 by Roberts (1958) and 1977 by Antrobus (1984). Research in 2008, involving face-to-face interviews of a sample survey of 40 Albany farmers, was undertaken to update the situation facing farm labourers and allowed for comparisons with the work previously done. Farm workers were governed by common law until 1994 when the government intervened with legislation. The introduction of the Basic Conditions of Employment Act (1997) for farm workers, amended in 2002 to include minimum wage legislation, and the Extension of Security of Tenure Act (ESTA) of 1997 impacted the supply and demand of farm workers. Other impacts have been due to the Albany district experiencing an increase in the establishment of Private Game Reserves and game-tourism with a simultaneous decline in conventional farming. It was concluded from the survey conducted that minimum wage legislation decreased the demand for regular and increased the demand for casual labour, which incur lower costs including transaction costs, than their regular counterparts. The ESTA of 1997 contributed to a decreased number of farm residents, which had spin-off affects on the supply of labour. Farmers experienced a simultaneous price-cost squeeze, which furthermore decreased the demand for labour. Studying the working and living conditions showed that farm workers had limited access to educational and recreational facilities which negatively impacted the supply of labour.
- Full Text:
The relationship between bank concentration and the interest rate pass through in selected African countries
- Authors: Mangwengwende, Tadiwanashe Mukudzeyi
- Date: 2010
- Subjects: Interest rates -- Effect of inflation on -- Africa , Monetary policy -- Africa , Prime rate , Prime rate -- Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:942 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002675
- Description: Given the importance of monetary policy in the operation of a successful modern economy and the use of official interest rates as tools in its implementation, this study investigates the implications of changing bank concentration on the operation of the Interest Rate Pass Through (IRPT) of official rates to bank lending and deposit rates. This is an issue made more poignant by growing mergers, acquisitions and bank consolidation exercises around the world that have brought interest to their implications for economic performance. However, with contention high in the industrial organisation theory on the likely relationship between bank concentration and the IRPT, and the outcomes of empirical investigations producing conflicting evidence, the desire to investigate the issue in the African context necessitated a thorough empirical investigation of four African countries (South Africa, Botswana, Nigeria and Zambia). This study not only extended the investigation of the issue to the African context, but it merged different IRPT measurement techniques that had not been jointly applied to this particular issue, namely; Symmetric and Asymmetric Error Correction Models, Mean Adjustment Lags, Ordinary Least Squares estimations and Autoregressive Distributed Lag models. These measures of the IRPT were compared with three firm concentration ratios on two different levels of analysis, one, over the entire period and, another, through eight year rolling windows. The results reveal that bank concentration can sometimes be related to the speed and magnitude of the IRPT but that these relationships are not consistent amongst the countries, over the entire sample period or across the two levels of analysis, suggesting reasons why empirical results have arrived at contrasting conclusions. The results revealed more evidence of a relationship between bank concentration and the magnitude of the IRPT than between bank concentration and the speed of the IRPT. Furthermore, where relationships were identified there was evidence supporting both the structure conduct performance hypothesis and the competing efficient market hypothesis as the true representation of the relationship between bank concentration and the IRPT. The key implication of the result for African countries is that increased bank concentration through bank consolidation programmes should not be automatically regarded as detrimental to the effective implementation of monetary policy through the IRPT. Consequently,banking sector regulation need not stifle bank consolidation and growth to preserve monetary policy effectiveness. Rather, since the relationship cannot be neatly represented by a single theory or hypothesis each country must determine its own interaction between bank concentration and its IRPT before policies regarding the banking sector concentration and effective monetary policy, through the use of official interest rates, are determined.
- Full Text:
Volatility and the risk return relationship on the South African equity market
- Authors: Mandimika, Neville
- Date: 2010
- Subjects: Stock exchanges , Financial risk -- South Africa , Saving and investment -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1009 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002744 , Stock exchanges , Financial risk -- South Africa , Saving and investment -- South Africa
- Description: The volatility of stock markets has important implications for investment decision making, financial stability and overall macroeconomic stability. This study examines the risk-return relationship as well as the behaviour of volatility of the South African equity markets using both aggregate, industrial level and sector level data. The study is divided into three parts. The first part investigates the behaviour of volatility in each of the industries, sectors and the benchmark series focussing on whether volatility is symmetric or asymmetric. Subsequently we investigate which, among the GARCH family of models appropriately captured the riskreturn relationship under which distributional assumption. The second part examines the riskreturn relationship on the SA stock market. The third part examines the long term trend of volatility and whether volatility significantly increases during financial crises and during major global shocks. The GARCH-M, EGARCH-M and TARCH-M models under the Gaussian, Student –t and the GED are used. The findings this study makes are as follows: firstly, there is no clear relationship between risk and return. Secondly, volatility is asymmetrical, implying that bad news has a greater effect on volatility than good news in the South African equity market. Thirdly, the TARCH-M model under the GED was found to be the most appropriate model. Fourthly, volatility increases during financial crises and major global shocks. Overall, volatility is generally not priced on the South African equity markets. Thus, both local and international investors need to consider other factors that influence returns such as skewness. The general increase in volatility during financial crises and major global shocks poses a major concern for policy makers as this may cause financial instability. Thus policy makers need to be mindful of the behaviour of volatility in the South African equity market in response to external shocks.
- Full Text:
A comparative analysis of the divisia index and the simple sum monetary aggregates for South Africa
- Authors: Moyo, Solomon Simbarashe
- Date: 2009
- Subjects: Monetary policy -- South Africa , Money supply -- South Africa , Inflation finance -- South Africa , Index numbers (Economics)
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:945 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002679 , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Money supply -- South Africa , Inflation finance -- South Africa , Index numbers (Economics)
- Description: The effectiveness of monetary policy in achieving its macroeconomic objectives such as price stability and economic growth depend on the monetary policy tools that are implemented by the Central Bank. Monetary aggregates are one of the tools that have been used as indicators of economic activity and as intermediate targets to achieve these economic objectives. Until recently, monetary aggregates have been questioned and criticised on their usefulness in monetary policy. This has been attributed to the economic, financial and technological developments that have distorted the relationship between monetary aggregates and major macroeconomic variables. This study investigates the relevance of monetary aggregation by comparing the traditional simple sum and Divisia index monetary aggregates which was constructed for the first time for South Africa using the Tornquist-Theil method. The Polynomial Distributed Lag model is employed to compare the performance of these monetary aggregates using their relationship with inflation and manufacturing index. Furthermore, the aggregates are compared in terms of their controllability and information content. Overall, the study found a very strong relationship between inflation and all the monetary aggregates. However, more specifically the results suggested that the Divisia indices are superior to the simple sum in terms of predicting inflation. The evidence further suggests that the Divisia aggregates provide higher information about inflation than the simple sum aggregates. Regarding the controllability of the monetary aggregates, the findings suggest that the monetary authorities can hardly control the monetary aggregates using monetary base. Finally, the relationship between manufacturing index and all the monetary aggregates was very weak.
- Full Text:
An analysis of the money market linkages between South Africa and selected major world economies
- Authors: Barnor, Joel A
- Date: 2009
- Subjects: South African Reserve Bank , Banks and banking, Central -- South Africa , Money market -- South Africa , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa , International economic relations , Interest rates -- South Africa , Financial institutions -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:956 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002690 , South African Reserve Bank , Banks and banking, Central -- South Africa , Money market -- South Africa , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa , International economic relations , Interest rates -- South Africa , Financial institutions -- South Africa
- Description: Globalisation and financial liberalisation has increased the linkages across countries in recent times. The existence of money market links has important implications for both domestic monetary policy and for investment decisions. This study examines the linkages between South Africa’s money market and selected major international money markets. The objectives of the study are firstly to examine the links between the repo rate of South Africa and the central bank rates of the EU, Japan, UK and US. Secondly, is to compare the influence of domestic and foreign monetary policy decisions on South Africa’s money market. The third objective is to examine the long run relationship between the South African money market and the money markets of its major trading partners. Three estimation techniques are used to examine the different links. Principal components analysis, four tests of cointegration, and stationarity tests of the spreads/risk premium between South Africa’s interest rates and the interest rates of the other countries. All three techniques show that there is no long-run link between South Africa’s central bank rates and the central bank rates of the other countries. This shows that the repo rate does not depend on movements in other central bank rates. Domestic money market interest rates respond strongly to changes in the repo rate whilst showing no dependence on central bank rates of the other countries. This confirms the autonomy of the South African Reserve Bank in carrying out policy objectives. When the risk premium is accounted for under the third technique, evidence of integration is found. This indicates that the risk premium plays a crucial part in the level of integration between South Africa and the countries included in the study.
- Full Text:
An investigation of social computing
- Authors: Schlenkrich, Lara
- Date: 2009
- Subjects: Online social networks , Online social networks -- Law and legislation , Interpersonal communication , Internet in education , Education -- Communication system , Education -- Data processing
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1149 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1006194 , Online social networks , Online social networks -- Law and legislation , Interpersonal communication , Internet in education , Education -- Communication system , Education -- Data processing
- Description: Social network sites have recently become extremely popular online destinations as they offer users easy ways to build and maintain their relationships with each other. Consequently, students, lecturers, teachers, parents and businesses are using these tools to communicate with each other in a fast and cost-effective manner. However, literature suggests that the full potential of social network sites has not yet been revealed since users are still battling to overcome the various negative characteristics surrounding these sites. A framework for appropriate use of these sites is needed so that users are able to overcome these negative aspects, allowing them to be more effective and use the sites successfully. The goal of this research is to construct a framework for perceived successful use of social computing tools in educational institutions. This framework will include critical success factors that need to be adopted by users in order to develop the positive aspects of social computing, while at the same time overcoming the disadvantages experienced by users. Factors for successful use were derived from the literature and consolidated into a theoretical framework in order to understand the factors that drive successful use of social network sites. Measures used to test successful use of social network sites were also derived from these sources and were included in the same theoretical framework; these measures allow users to evaluate the extent of perceived successful use of social network sites. This framework was tested empirically by means of a pilot study and online survey, and revised according to the results of the survey. The factors were identified using Cronbach alpha coefficients (in the pilot study) and exploratory factor analysis to confirm the reliability of the scales developed. Pearson product-moment correlation coefficient analysis, t-tests and Pearson Chi-Square tests were used to measure the relationships amongst the variables in the framework proposed in this research. The factors influencing perceived successful use of social network sites were identified by the empirical study as: • Privacy and Security Settings need to be enabled. These are split into: - Settings: content that users allow others to see - Viewers: people who are allowed onto a user's profile • It is necessary for users to practise Legal and Acceptable Activities when using social network sites • Suspect Information needs to be checked before sharing it with others • Personal and Professional Time needs to be separated to ensure that work is completed before social activities occur • Users need to practise Professional and Ethical Behaviour • Users need to have a Positive Attitude when using social network sites • Usability of sites affects their success. This includes: - technical capacity (broadband) - ease of use - functionality (range of features and functions) • Current and Controversial Issues need to be discussed on social network sites. The extent to which social network sites are being used successfully can be evaluated by the presence of the following measures: • Range of Content must be available to users. This includes: - Content displayed on profiles - Viewers able to visit profiles • Visitors Behaviour is monitored and no unwanted visitors are present users' profiles • Social Contracts found on sites are followed by users • Critical Thinking Skills and Accurate Information are displayed by users • Work is completed before social activities occur on sites • A Variety of Users is present on sites • Collaboration between people as well as variety of opinions exist on sites • Social Capital (well-being) is present after users have been on sites • Learning and Advising Skills are enhanced on sites. The framework developed provides users with a useful instrument to overcome the negative characteristics associated with social network sites. If used successfully, social network sites can offer lecturers and students a unique method to develop their relationship, creating a positive learning experience.
- Full Text:
Attitudes and perceptions towards TB in Grahamstown East in a time of HIV/AIDS
- Authors: Ndoro, Tinashe T. R
- Date: 2009
- Subjects: Tuberculosis -- South Africa -- Grahamstown , AIDS (Disease) -- Social aspects -- South Africa -- Grahamstown , HIV (Viruses) -- Social aspects -- South Africa -- Grahamstown , Tuberculosis -- Social aspects -- South Africa -- Grahamstown , Tuberculosis -- Prevention -- South Africa -- Grahamstown , AIDS (Disease) -- South Africa -- Grahamstown -- Public opinion , Tuberculosis -- South Africa -- Grahamstown -- Public opinion , Health surveys -- South Africa -- Grahamstown
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:3030 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002539 , Tuberculosis -- South Africa -- Grahamstown , AIDS (Disease) -- Social aspects -- South Africa -- Grahamstown , HIV (Viruses) -- Social aspects -- South Africa -- Grahamstown , Tuberculosis -- Social aspects -- South Africa -- Grahamstown , Tuberculosis -- Prevention -- South Africa -- Grahamstown , AIDS (Disease) -- South Africa -- Grahamstown -- Public opinion , Tuberculosis -- South Africa -- Grahamstown -- Public opinion , Health surveys -- South Africa -- Grahamstown
- Description: Tuberculosis (TB) has become a serious South African health problem because it is the most common opportunistic disease that leads to death in people with HIV/AIDS. Due to the airborne nature of the disease it can easily be spread to anyone including healthy people. A lack of compliance to treatment by TB patients explains why prevalence rates of the disease are high and why there is an emergence of drug resistant strains such as XDR-TB and MDR-TB. Information on existing knowledge, attitudes and perceptions regarding TB can provide a crucial foundation for the development of educational programmes and interventions aimed at reducing the further spread of the disease. This study aimed at understanding the knowledge, attitudes and perceptions towards TB and relating these to the current prevalence of HIV/AIDS. A face-to-face interview survey was conducted among adult Grahamstown East residents (n=1020). The Health Belief Model (Rosenstock et al., 1994) and Bandura’s (1986) Social Cognitive Theory formed the theoretical framework of the data collection and analysis. The data generated from the field work was first descriptively analysed providing frequency tables. Thereafter cross tabulations were calculated for relevant items using independent variables, namely gender, level of education, and experience of dealing with TB. The results of the study show that, in general, knowledge concerning TB was sufficient to provide a foundation for the adoption of healthier behaviours in the female respondents. Few of the respondents reported feeling personally susceptible although the majority of the respondents acknowledged the severity of the disease. The cues to action lacked the influence to persuade people to adopt positive health related behaviours. The perceived benefits of adopting preventative behaviour were not very influential in the adoption of healthier behavioural changes in the respondents. Disease stigma regarding the dual association of TB and HIV/AIDS was the main barrier for the adoption of healthier behavioural attitudes. Perceived self-efficacy in preventative behaviours was generally low in the less educated respondents. Recommendations regarding areas for future research and change interventions are provided.
- Full Text:
Bank credit extension to the private sector and inflation in South Africa
- Authors: Dlamini, Samuel Nkosinathi
- Date: 2009
- Subjects: Bank loans -- South Africa , Inflation (Finance) -- South Africa , Money supply -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Banks and banking -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:959 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002693 , Bank loans -- South Africa , Inflation (Finance) -- South Africa , Money supply -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Banks and banking -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa
- Description: This study investigates the contribution of bank credit extension to the private sector to inflation in South Africa, covering the period 1970:1-2006:4. The long-run impact of bank credit on inflation is investigated by means of the Johansen co integration model. The short-run ynamics of the inflation is subsequently modelled by means of the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). Using the Johansen methodology, the study identifies two co integrating equations linking inflation and its eterminants. The results suggest that the long-run relationship between inflation and bank credit to the private sector is negative and statistically significant at 10% level. The determinants that are significant at 5% level are: money supply, real gross domestic product, the money market rate, rand/dollar exchange rate and imports. The results are consistent with previous findings. The speed of adjustment in response to deviation from the equilibrium path was found to be negative at 10.56% per quarter, which is consistent with findings by Ohnsorge and Oomes (2003) for Russia. Both the signs and the magnitude of the coefficients suggest that the co integrating vector describes a long-run inflation equation. The impulse response functions confirm the theoretical expectations except for the import prices. The most persistent and significant shocks observed are on impulse response functions of money supply and bank credit to the private sector. The variance decomposition results also suggest that inflation responds quicker to innovations from money supply and the money market rate. The overall results provide evidence that the surge in inflation is associated with an increase in money supply as well as the instability in exchange rate. The effects of exchange rate fluctuation on inflation are reflected through changes in import prices. Based on the results we conclude that an increase in bank credit during the period 1970:1-2006:4 had a negative mpact on inflation in South Africa.
- Full Text:
Bond market development in emerging economies: a case study of the Bond Exchange of South Africa (BESA)
- Authors: Hove, Tagara
- Date: 2009
- Subjects: Bond Exchange of South Africa , Bond market -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:961 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002695 , Bond Exchange of South Africa , Bond market -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa
- Description: This study looks at the development of bond markets in emerging economies and focuses on the development of the Bond Exchange of South Africa (BESA). It explores the history, structure, performance and key issues related to the development of this market within the broader context of domestic, regional and global bond market development. BESA's experience provides valuable lessons for other emerging market economies also seeking to build bond markets. The sophistication of the local bond market is not enough to make it appealing to foreign borrowers. Market development demands an enabling market infrastructure and a background of macroeconomic stability, diversified market participants, deregulation of capital flows and an appropriate regulatory and supervisory environment.
- Full Text:
Exploring job search and the causes of endogenous unemployment: evidence from Duncan Village, South Africa
- Authors: Duff, Patrick Alexander
- Date: 2009
- Subjects: Unemployment , Unemployment -- Social aspects -- South Africa -- East London -- Duncan Village , Job hunting -- South Africa -- East London -- Duncan Village , Labor market -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1026
- Description: Despite high rates of unemployment in South Africa, there is little consensus about its origins and solutions to the problem. Job search (how and when people search for work)is one aspect of the unemployment problem. Job search is shown to be a complex process strongly linked to the endogenous structure of the labour market. The flaws in traditional methods (theoretical and measurement) highlight this. Using data from a tailor-made survey in Duncan Village (a peri-urban area in Buffalo City, South Africa) the research examines factors that influence the effectiveness of job search. The results show that mode of search (how people look for work) is used as a signal by employers. Degrees of success are stratified amongst searchers using either ‘word of mouth’, place-to-place or formal modes of search. The thesis provides a method-test to reveal a complex body of evidence that has yet to be fully explored by practitioners in this field.
- Full Text:
Gains derived from illegal activities :an analysis of the taxation consequences
- Authors: Mtshawulana, Lungiswa Bukeka
- Date: 2009
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:886 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1001640
- Description: Income Tax in South Africa is levied in terms of the Income Tax Act 58 of 1962 on taxable income, which, by definition, is arrived at by deducting from "gross income" receipts and accruals that are exempt from tax as well as deductions and allowances provided for in the Act. The Income Tax Act provides no guidance with regard to the taxation of illegal activities, except to prohibit the deduction of expenditure incurred in paying fines or in relation to corrupt activities, as defined. An analysis of the taxation of income derived from theft, fraud and prostitution and the deductibility of expenses relating to that income, is the question addressed in this thesis. In this thesis, an analysis was made of relevant case law in relation to the provisions of the Income Tax Act in an attempt to provide clarity. A brief comparison was also macie of American, United Kingdom and South African tax law. Similarities were found between the American, United Kingdom and South African tax regimes in relation to the taxation of income, but there appeared to be more certainty in America and the United Kingdom in relation to the deduction of expenses. The thesis concludes that recent case decisions have provided certainty in relation to income from illegal activities, but the tax status of the deduction of expenses remains uncertain.
- Full Text: