An analysis of bank risk management and its relevance for the non-bank corporate sector
- Authors: Dietrich, David Roland
- Date: 2007
- Subjects: Bank management , Risk management , Corporations -- Finance , Financial institutions , Banks and banking
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:949 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002683 , Bank management , Risk management , Corporations -- Finance , Financial institutions , Banks and banking
- Description: This thesis, entitled “An analysis of bank risk management and its relevance for the non-bank corporate sector”, investigates the extent to which financial risk management by the banking sector can be applied to the non-bank corporate sector. As banks’ risk management techniques are more sophisticated than those of the non-bank corporate sector we have endeavoured to ascertain the applicability of these established risk management methods to the non-bank corporate sector. The main objectives of this study were to analyse the banking sectors’ risks and management thereof, and compare them to the risks faced by the nonbank corporate sector. This analysis was then used to present a theoretical financial risk management model for the corporate sector. This analysis was conducted using qualitative research. The thesis engaged in an in-depth investigation of financial risk management through a documentary, literature and media analysis. It was elucidated that not all companies face the same financial risks and therefore each company requires its own unique financial risk management model. Furthermore, it was established that there are several risks that both banks and non-bank corporates are subjected to. However, the management of these risks is not necessarily the same for these two types of institutes. This thesis concludes by putting forward a financial risk management model which presents all the possible financial risks that non-bank corporates may face.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2007
- Authors: Dietrich, David Roland
- Date: 2007
- Subjects: Bank management , Risk management , Corporations -- Finance , Financial institutions , Banks and banking
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:949 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002683 , Bank management , Risk management , Corporations -- Finance , Financial institutions , Banks and banking
- Description: This thesis, entitled “An analysis of bank risk management and its relevance for the non-bank corporate sector”, investigates the extent to which financial risk management by the banking sector can be applied to the non-bank corporate sector. As banks’ risk management techniques are more sophisticated than those of the non-bank corporate sector we have endeavoured to ascertain the applicability of these established risk management methods to the non-bank corporate sector. The main objectives of this study were to analyse the banking sectors’ risks and management thereof, and compare them to the risks faced by the nonbank corporate sector. This analysis was then used to present a theoretical financial risk management model for the corporate sector. This analysis was conducted using qualitative research. The thesis engaged in an in-depth investigation of financial risk management through a documentary, literature and media analysis. It was elucidated that not all companies face the same financial risks and therefore each company requires its own unique financial risk management model. Furthermore, it was established that there are several risks that both banks and non-bank corporates are subjected to. However, the management of these risks is not necessarily the same for these two types of institutes. This thesis concludes by putting forward a financial risk management model which presents all the possible financial risks that non-bank corporates may face.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2007
An analysis of neural networks and time series techniques for demand forecasting
- Authors: Winn, David
- Date: 2007
- Subjects: Time-series analysis , Neural networks (Computer science) , Artificial intelligence , Marketing -- Management , Marketing -- Data processing , Marketing -- Statistical methods , Consumer behaviour
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:5572 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1004362 , Time-series analysis , Neural networks (Computer science) , Artificial intelligence , Marketing -- Management , Marketing -- Data processing , Marketing -- Statistical methods , Consumer behaviour
- Description: This research examines the plausibility of developing demand forecasting techniques which are consistently and accurately able to predict demand. Time Series Techniques and Artificial Neural Networks are both investigated. Deodorant sales in South Africa are specifically studied in this thesis. Marketing techniques which are used to influence consumer buyer behaviour are considered, and these factors are integrated into the forecasting models wherever possible. The results of this research suggest that Artificial Neural Networks can be developed which consistently outperform industry forecasting targets as well as Time Series forecasts, suggesting that producers could reduce costs by adopting this more effective method.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2007
- Authors: Winn, David
- Date: 2007
- Subjects: Time-series analysis , Neural networks (Computer science) , Artificial intelligence , Marketing -- Management , Marketing -- Data processing , Marketing -- Statistical methods , Consumer behaviour
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:5572 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1004362 , Time-series analysis , Neural networks (Computer science) , Artificial intelligence , Marketing -- Management , Marketing -- Data processing , Marketing -- Statistical methods , Consumer behaviour
- Description: This research examines the plausibility of developing demand forecasting techniques which are consistently and accurately able to predict demand. Time Series Techniques and Artificial Neural Networks are both investigated. Deodorant sales in South Africa are specifically studied in this thesis. Marketing techniques which are used to influence consumer buyer behaviour are considered, and these factors are integrated into the forecasting models wherever possible. The results of this research suggest that Artificial Neural Networks can be developed which consistently outperform industry forecasting targets as well as Time Series forecasts, suggesting that producers could reduce costs by adopting this more effective method.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2007
An analysis of the turn-of-the-year effect in South African equity returns
- Authors: Potgieter, Damien
- Date: 2007
- Subjects: Johannesburg Stock Exchange , FTSE International , Stock exchanges -- South Africa , Stock price indexes -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1063 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1007605 , Johannesburg Stock Exchange , FTSE International , Stock exchanges -- South Africa , Stock price indexes -- South Africa
- Description: This study investigates FTSE/JSE All Share index monthly and daily equity returns for evidence of the January and TY effect. Four different measures of monthly return are analysed for the 1995-2006 period, whilst daily returns are analysed during the 1995-2005 period. In addition to this, analysis is conducted on monthly Fama-MacBeth risk premium estimates tor the FTSE/JSE All Share Index. Descriptive statistics are first analysed, followed by ANOV A or Kruskai-Wallis tests, the paired t-test and finally dummy variable regression analysis in investigating the seasonality of FTSE/JSE All Share Index returns and risk premia. Analysis on monthly returns reveals an absence of the January effect, however a positive slightly statistically significant December effect is found. Thus, investors earn abnormal returns on equity during the month of December. The results from the Fama-MacBeth risk premia estimates reveals highly statistically significant negative risk premia seasonal patterns during March, July and September. Thus, investors are in fact penalised for investing in equities during these months. In addition, the analysis reveals an absence of a December effect in risk premia, which contradicts the risk-return trade-off central to modem finance. The daily return analysis reveals a highly significant Turn-of-the-Year effect (TY), which suggests that investors earn abnormal returns on days at the turn of the year. Therefore, it is concluded that a December effect is apparent in South African equity monthly returns, whilst a March, July and September effect is apparent in South African equity risk premia contradicting the risk-return trade-off central to modem finance. In addition to this, a TY effect is present in South African equity daily returns.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2007
- Authors: Potgieter, Damien
- Date: 2007
- Subjects: Johannesburg Stock Exchange , FTSE International , Stock exchanges -- South Africa , Stock price indexes -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1063 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1007605 , Johannesburg Stock Exchange , FTSE International , Stock exchanges -- South Africa , Stock price indexes -- South Africa
- Description: This study investigates FTSE/JSE All Share index monthly and daily equity returns for evidence of the January and TY effect. Four different measures of monthly return are analysed for the 1995-2006 period, whilst daily returns are analysed during the 1995-2005 period. In addition to this, analysis is conducted on monthly Fama-MacBeth risk premium estimates tor the FTSE/JSE All Share Index. Descriptive statistics are first analysed, followed by ANOV A or Kruskai-Wallis tests, the paired t-test and finally dummy variable regression analysis in investigating the seasonality of FTSE/JSE All Share Index returns and risk premia. Analysis on monthly returns reveals an absence of the January effect, however a positive slightly statistically significant December effect is found. Thus, investors earn abnormal returns on equity during the month of December. The results from the Fama-MacBeth risk premia estimates reveals highly statistically significant negative risk premia seasonal patterns during March, July and September. Thus, investors are in fact penalised for investing in equities during these months. In addition, the analysis reveals an absence of a December effect in risk premia, which contradicts the risk-return trade-off central to modem finance. The daily return analysis reveals a highly significant Turn-of-the-Year effect (TY), which suggests that investors earn abnormal returns on days at the turn of the year. Therefore, it is concluded that a December effect is apparent in South African equity monthly returns, whilst a March, July and September effect is apparent in South African equity risk premia contradicting the risk-return trade-off central to modem finance. In addition to this, a TY effect is present in South African equity daily returns.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2007
An empirical investigation into the determinants of stock market behaviour in South Africa
- Authors: Olalere, Durodola Oludamola
- Date: 2007
- Subjects: Johannesburg Stock Exchange , Stocks -- Prices -- South Africa , Stock exchanges -- South Africa , Macroeconomics -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:998 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002733 , Johannesburg Stock Exchange , Stocks -- Prices -- South Africa , Stock exchanges -- South Africa , Macroeconomics -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa
- Description: The argument with regards to whether macro-economic fundamentals determine stock market behaviour is very important because of the roles it plays in an economy. Such roles include: pooling and trading of risks, mobilization of savings, provision of liquidity and allocation of capital. However, the stock market will only perform such roles effectively if the macro-economic environment is conducive. This study examined the behaviour of the All Share Index (ALSI) and market capitalization on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange in response to changes in the domestic and international macro-economic fundamentals such as the consumer price index, rand-dollar real exchange rates, domestic GDP, yield on South African government bonds, yield on United States government bonds and United States GDP. The study used cointegration and error correction techniques proposed by Johansen and Juselius (1990) to test for long run relationship. Two separate models were estimated and results obtained show that the two proxies for the stock market behaviour (All share Index and market capitalization) are true endogenous variables, but react differently to economic fundamentals. The consumer price index has a significant negative impact on the JSE share price index while market capitalization is determined predominantly by the yield on South African government bonds. The exchange rate seems to have had little or no influence on the share price index, but becomes negative and significant in the case of market capitalization. The yield on United States government bonds also produced a strong influence on both the share price index and market capitalization. While it has a negative significant impact on share prices, it produced a positive significant impact on market capitalization. In order to ascertain whether the South African interest rate or the United States interest rate is more important in explaining the share price and market capitalization, each of the variables were estimated in the model separately, the result obtained reveals that the United States interest rate is more important than the domestic interest rate in explaining the share price and market capitalization on the JSE. This implies that investors need to observe the USA interest rate before investing in South African equities. A comparison of the responses of share price index and market capitalization to impulses from the macro-economic variables tested reveals that both proxies elicit a positive response from aggregate output. The share price index responds more significantly to impulses from output growth than the market capitalization, meaning that, as aggregate production increases, the share price index tends to respond positively and quickly. The exchange rate produced mixed result from the two proxies, while it produced a positive response from the market capitalization; an initial positive response was noted in the share price index that immediately turned negative. Another glaring contrast was identified in the response of both proxies to impulses from the United States interest rate. The share price index responded positively while the market capitalization produced a negative response. This finding reveals that the two proxies actually respond differently to macro-economic variables. The variance decomposition of both stock prices and market capitalization reveals that the yield on United States government bonds has a more significant absorption potential than the South African government bonds. However, the absorption process is slower in the case of the market capitalization. The exchange rate has a greater impact on the market capitalization than stock prices. The overall assessment shows that share prices respond faster than market capitalization to macro-economic fundamentals. The study also shows that the increased openness of the South African economy by way of relaxation of the exchange control on capital account transaction has allowed the USA market to play a crucial role in equity prices in South Africa. Three main policy recommendations results from the study. Firstly, if inflation is well monitored, then the local equity market is bound to perform strongly resulting in strong shares earning growth. Secondly, the exchange rate should be made to be less volatile so that long term investment plans across borders can be further enhanced. Thirdly, financial analyst and investors in South Africa need to analyse macro-economic developments in the United States before investing in equities in South Africa.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2007
- Authors: Olalere, Durodola Oludamola
- Date: 2007
- Subjects: Johannesburg Stock Exchange , Stocks -- Prices -- South Africa , Stock exchanges -- South Africa , Macroeconomics -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:998 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002733 , Johannesburg Stock Exchange , Stocks -- Prices -- South Africa , Stock exchanges -- South Africa , Macroeconomics -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa
- Description: The argument with regards to whether macro-economic fundamentals determine stock market behaviour is very important because of the roles it plays in an economy. Such roles include: pooling and trading of risks, mobilization of savings, provision of liquidity and allocation of capital. However, the stock market will only perform such roles effectively if the macro-economic environment is conducive. This study examined the behaviour of the All Share Index (ALSI) and market capitalization on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange in response to changes in the domestic and international macro-economic fundamentals such as the consumer price index, rand-dollar real exchange rates, domestic GDP, yield on South African government bonds, yield on United States government bonds and United States GDP. The study used cointegration and error correction techniques proposed by Johansen and Juselius (1990) to test for long run relationship. Two separate models were estimated and results obtained show that the two proxies for the stock market behaviour (All share Index and market capitalization) are true endogenous variables, but react differently to economic fundamentals. The consumer price index has a significant negative impact on the JSE share price index while market capitalization is determined predominantly by the yield on South African government bonds. The exchange rate seems to have had little or no influence on the share price index, but becomes negative and significant in the case of market capitalization. The yield on United States government bonds also produced a strong influence on both the share price index and market capitalization. While it has a negative significant impact on share prices, it produced a positive significant impact on market capitalization. In order to ascertain whether the South African interest rate or the United States interest rate is more important in explaining the share price and market capitalization, each of the variables were estimated in the model separately, the result obtained reveals that the United States interest rate is more important than the domestic interest rate in explaining the share price and market capitalization on the JSE. This implies that investors need to observe the USA interest rate before investing in South African equities. A comparison of the responses of share price index and market capitalization to impulses from the macro-economic variables tested reveals that both proxies elicit a positive response from aggregate output. The share price index responds more significantly to impulses from output growth than the market capitalization, meaning that, as aggregate production increases, the share price index tends to respond positively and quickly. The exchange rate produced mixed result from the two proxies, while it produced a positive response from the market capitalization; an initial positive response was noted in the share price index that immediately turned negative. Another glaring contrast was identified in the response of both proxies to impulses from the United States interest rate. The share price index responded positively while the market capitalization produced a negative response. This finding reveals that the two proxies actually respond differently to macro-economic variables. The variance decomposition of both stock prices and market capitalization reveals that the yield on United States government bonds has a more significant absorption potential than the South African government bonds. However, the absorption process is slower in the case of the market capitalization. The exchange rate has a greater impact on the market capitalization than stock prices. The overall assessment shows that share prices respond faster than market capitalization to macro-economic fundamentals. The study also shows that the increased openness of the South African economy by way of relaxation of the exchange control on capital account transaction has allowed the USA market to play a crucial role in equity prices in South Africa. Three main policy recommendations results from the study. Firstly, if inflation is well monitored, then the local equity market is bound to perform strongly resulting in strong shares earning growth. Secondly, the exchange rate should be made to be less volatile so that long term investment plans across borders can be further enhanced. Thirdly, financial analyst and investors in South Africa need to analyse macro-economic developments in the United States before investing in equities in South Africa.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2007
An examination of internet usage patterns by mature travellers
- Authors: Correia, Sérgio Barradas
- Date: 2007
- Subjects: Tourism -- Marketing , Internet marketing , Internet users , Older people -- Travel , Older consumers -- Travel
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1194 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1008182 , Tourism -- Marketing , Internet marketing , Internet users , Older people -- Travel , Older consumers -- Travel
- Description: The tourism industry has been identified as the industry with the most potential to create jobs and contribute largely to economic growth. In order to live up to this potential, tourism businesses need to create tourism products for potential tourists which need to be promoted successfully through a number of mediums. The use of the Internet as a medium for promoting and selling tourism products is increasing, however, in order for tourism businesses to successfully promote the tourism product through the Internet, they have to understand the needs and wants of their current and potential target markets. One segment of the tourism market that has come under increasing attention is the mature traveller market. This market is defined as travellers who are 50 years of age and older. Generally, the mature traveller market is viewed as a small homogenous group of old consumers with little or no spending power. However, evidence suggests that this market is comprised of an increasing number of diverse people, who use the Internet and like to spend on tourism products. Therefore, this research will examine differences between Internet users and Internet non-users in the mature traveller market. Specific attention will be paid to investigate differences in demographic, socioeconomic, Internet use and travel-related characteristics. The identification of these characteristics will enable a profile to be d~veloped for each group, which can be used by tourism businesses to effectively promote tourism products over the Internet to the mature market In order to collect data from potential respondents, a questionnaire which was used in a similar study conducted in the US was used. Data was collected using a convenience sample of Internet users and Internet non-users from the Eastern Cape and Gauteng provinces of South Africa. Cronbach alpha and factor analysis were used to assess the reliability and validity of the research instrument and measurement scales. In order to test whether differences did exist between the two groups the Chi-square and t-test statistics were used. Finally in order to examine which factors where influential in differentiating between Internet users and Internet non-users discriminant analysis was employed. The findings in the present study suggest that there are significant differences in demographics, socioeconomic, Internet use and travel-related characteristics between Internet users and Internet non-users in the mature market. By understanding the differences between Internet users and Internet non-users, tourism businesses can identify marketing strategies that appeal to mature travellers who use the Internet and to those do not, by utilising information gathered from Internet users and Internet non-users demographic, socio-economic and travel-related characteristics.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2007
- Authors: Correia, Sérgio Barradas
- Date: 2007
- Subjects: Tourism -- Marketing , Internet marketing , Internet users , Older people -- Travel , Older consumers -- Travel
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1194 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1008182 , Tourism -- Marketing , Internet marketing , Internet users , Older people -- Travel , Older consumers -- Travel
- Description: The tourism industry has been identified as the industry with the most potential to create jobs and contribute largely to economic growth. In order to live up to this potential, tourism businesses need to create tourism products for potential tourists which need to be promoted successfully through a number of mediums. The use of the Internet as a medium for promoting and selling tourism products is increasing, however, in order for tourism businesses to successfully promote the tourism product through the Internet, they have to understand the needs and wants of their current and potential target markets. One segment of the tourism market that has come under increasing attention is the mature traveller market. This market is defined as travellers who are 50 years of age and older. Generally, the mature traveller market is viewed as a small homogenous group of old consumers with little or no spending power. However, evidence suggests that this market is comprised of an increasing number of diverse people, who use the Internet and like to spend on tourism products. Therefore, this research will examine differences between Internet users and Internet non-users in the mature traveller market. Specific attention will be paid to investigate differences in demographic, socioeconomic, Internet use and travel-related characteristics. The identification of these characteristics will enable a profile to be d~veloped for each group, which can be used by tourism businesses to effectively promote tourism products over the Internet to the mature market In order to collect data from potential respondents, a questionnaire which was used in a similar study conducted in the US was used. Data was collected using a convenience sample of Internet users and Internet non-users from the Eastern Cape and Gauteng provinces of South Africa. Cronbach alpha and factor analysis were used to assess the reliability and validity of the research instrument and measurement scales. In order to test whether differences did exist between the two groups the Chi-square and t-test statistics were used. Finally in order to examine which factors where influential in differentiating between Internet users and Internet non-users discriminant analysis was employed. The findings in the present study suggest that there are significant differences in demographics, socioeconomic, Internet use and travel-related characteristics between Internet users and Internet non-users in the mature market. By understanding the differences between Internet users and Internet non-users, tourism businesses can identify marketing strategies that appeal to mature travellers who use the Internet and to those do not, by utilising information gathered from Internet users and Internet non-users demographic, socio-economic and travel-related characteristics.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2007
An investigation of ICT project management techniques for sustainable ICT projects in rural development
- Authors: Pade, Caroline Ileje
- Date: 2007
- Subjects: Educational technology -- South Africa , Information technology -- Study and teaching -- South Africa , Project management -- South Africa , Rural development projects -- South Africa , Rural development projects -- South Africa -- Case studies , Rhodes University Mathematics Education Project , Dwesa ICT Project
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1140 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002769 , Educational technology -- South Africa , Information technology -- Study and teaching -- South Africa , Project management -- South Africa , Rural development projects -- South Africa , Rural development projects -- South Africa -- Case studies , Rhodes University Mathematics Education Project , Dwesa ICT Project
- Description: Poverty alleviation by means of rural development has become a priority among developing countries. In turn, rural development may be significantly enhanced and supported by Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs), the use of which is highlighted by the emerging importance of information and knowledge as key strategic resources for social and economic development. An analysis of rural case studies where ICTs have been introduced, suggests that there are a number of barriers and constraints that are faced when taking advantage of these technologies. These include access to infrastructure, limited formal education, insufficient training and capacity building, financial and political constraints, and social and cultural challenges. These challenges threaten the success and sustainability of rural ICT projects. Sustainability is key to the effectiveness of a rural ICT project; therefore it is important to understand the concept and categories associated with ICT project sustainability in rural areas. The categories of sustainability which include social and cultural, institutional, economic, political, and technological, reveal critical success factors that need to be considered in the implementation and management of rural ICT projects. The project management discipline acknowledges the importance of understanding the project’s environment, particularly environmental factors associated with rural communities. The complexity of the environment therefore implies the need for a project to be undertaken in phases comprising the project life cycle. Project management practice for rural ICT project sustainability can therefore be examined, adapting the traditional project life cycle to a rural ICT project. A Rural ICT Project Life Cycle (RICT-PLC) that is sensitive to the critical success factors of sustainability is therefore proposed. In order to further investigate the phases of the life cycle of a rural ICT project, two case study investigations are explored: the Dwesa ICT community project, and the Rhodes University Mathematics Education Project (RUMEP) (MathsNet). A multiple case study analysis confirms the practices associated with the RICT-PLC model, and identifies additional characteristics, phases and practices associated with rural ICT projects. Finally, an enhanced RICT-PLC model is developed, that sets sustainability guidelines for ICT project management in rural areas and identifies the people, environments, technologies, systems, and requirements for ICTs to support rural development activities.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2007
- Authors: Pade, Caroline Ileje
- Date: 2007
- Subjects: Educational technology -- South Africa , Information technology -- Study and teaching -- South Africa , Project management -- South Africa , Rural development projects -- South Africa , Rural development projects -- South Africa -- Case studies , Rhodes University Mathematics Education Project , Dwesa ICT Project
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1140 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002769 , Educational technology -- South Africa , Information technology -- Study and teaching -- South Africa , Project management -- South Africa , Rural development projects -- South Africa , Rural development projects -- South Africa -- Case studies , Rhodes University Mathematics Education Project , Dwesa ICT Project
- Description: Poverty alleviation by means of rural development has become a priority among developing countries. In turn, rural development may be significantly enhanced and supported by Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs), the use of which is highlighted by the emerging importance of information and knowledge as key strategic resources for social and economic development. An analysis of rural case studies where ICTs have been introduced, suggests that there are a number of barriers and constraints that are faced when taking advantage of these technologies. These include access to infrastructure, limited formal education, insufficient training and capacity building, financial and political constraints, and social and cultural challenges. These challenges threaten the success and sustainability of rural ICT projects. Sustainability is key to the effectiveness of a rural ICT project; therefore it is important to understand the concept and categories associated with ICT project sustainability in rural areas. The categories of sustainability which include social and cultural, institutional, economic, political, and technological, reveal critical success factors that need to be considered in the implementation and management of rural ICT projects. The project management discipline acknowledges the importance of understanding the project’s environment, particularly environmental factors associated with rural communities. The complexity of the environment therefore implies the need for a project to be undertaken in phases comprising the project life cycle. Project management practice for rural ICT project sustainability can therefore be examined, adapting the traditional project life cycle to a rural ICT project. A Rural ICT Project Life Cycle (RICT-PLC) that is sensitive to the critical success factors of sustainability is therefore proposed. In order to further investigate the phases of the life cycle of a rural ICT project, two case study investigations are explored: the Dwesa ICT community project, and the Rhodes University Mathematics Education Project (RUMEP) (MathsNet). A multiple case study analysis confirms the practices associated with the RICT-PLC model, and identifies additional characteristics, phases and practices associated with rural ICT projects. Finally, an enhanced RICT-PLC model is developed, that sets sustainability guidelines for ICT project management in rural areas and identifies the people, environments, technologies, systems, and requirements for ICTs to support rural development activities.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2007
Financial instability in South Africa : trends and interactions within the financial markets
- Authors: Shikwambana, Jamela
- Date: 2007 , 2013-08-06
- Subjects: Finance -- South Africa , Financial institutions -- South Africa , Economic stabilization -- South Africa , Stock exchanges -- South Africa , Stocks -- Prices -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Equilibrium (Economics)
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1043 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1005911 , Finance -- South Africa , Financial institutions -- South Africa , Economic stabilization -- South Africa , Stock exchanges -- South Africa , Stocks -- Prices -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Equilibrium (Economics)
- Description: This study seeks to investigate the trends and interactions of market volatility as a source of instability in the South African financial markets. Financial instability can be manifested in the form of banking and currency crisis, institutional failures and extreme asset price volatility. This study, however, focuses on a single aspect of financial instability - asset price volatility. Asset price volatility reflects changes in market expectations as investors react to such changes, and thus on its own is not necessarily a source of instability. However, volatility spillovers can propagate volatility shocks across the market, increasing the risk of widespread instability. Using a combination of graphical and trend analysis as well as more formal estimation techniques, the study examined volatility in the stock, money and foreign exchange markets. To obtain estimates of market volatility, the study experimented with various volatility models that include the GARCH, TARCH and EGARCH. An analysis of volatility interactions and the transmission of volatility shocks across the market is crucial to understanding financial instability. To examine volatility interaction and the transmission of volatility shocks, a VAR model was estimated. This framework allowed us to examine the propagation of shocks across the markets. Volatility in the financial markets was found to be highly persistent and in the case of exchange rates, volatility was also characterised by an increasing trend. Significant linkages between the financial markets were found. The links also extended to the volatility relationship as evidenced by significant volatility spillovers across the markets. While volatility spillovers from the money market were found in the stock market and the foreign exchange market, no volatility spillovers from these markets were found in the money market. Thus the money market was identified as the major source of volatility spillovers and shocks in the financial markets. These results highlighted the role of monetary policy in the financial system, specifically the need to make monetary policy stable and predictable to ensure that interest rate shocks are not an additional source of instability. , KMBT_363 , Adobe Acrobat 9.54 Paper Capture Plug-in
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2007
- Authors: Shikwambana, Jamela
- Date: 2007 , 2013-08-06
- Subjects: Finance -- South Africa , Financial institutions -- South Africa , Economic stabilization -- South Africa , Stock exchanges -- South Africa , Stocks -- Prices -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Equilibrium (Economics)
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1043 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1005911 , Finance -- South Africa , Financial institutions -- South Africa , Economic stabilization -- South Africa , Stock exchanges -- South Africa , Stocks -- Prices -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Equilibrium (Economics)
- Description: This study seeks to investigate the trends and interactions of market volatility as a source of instability in the South African financial markets. Financial instability can be manifested in the form of banking and currency crisis, institutional failures and extreme asset price volatility. This study, however, focuses on a single aspect of financial instability - asset price volatility. Asset price volatility reflects changes in market expectations as investors react to such changes, and thus on its own is not necessarily a source of instability. However, volatility spillovers can propagate volatility shocks across the market, increasing the risk of widespread instability. Using a combination of graphical and trend analysis as well as more formal estimation techniques, the study examined volatility in the stock, money and foreign exchange markets. To obtain estimates of market volatility, the study experimented with various volatility models that include the GARCH, TARCH and EGARCH. An analysis of volatility interactions and the transmission of volatility shocks across the market is crucial to understanding financial instability. To examine volatility interaction and the transmission of volatility shocks, a VAR model was estimated. This framework allowed us to examine the propagation of shocks across the markets. Volatility in the financial markets was found to be highly persistent and in the case of exchange rates, volatility was also characterised by an increasing trend. Significant linkages between the financial markets were found. The links also extended to the volatility relationship as evidenced by significant volatility spillovers across the markets. While volatility spillovers from the money market were found in the stock market and the foreign exchange market, no volatility spillovers from these markets were found in the money market. Thus the money market was identified as the major source of volatility spillovers and shocks in the financial markets. These results highlighted the role of monetary policy in the financial system, specifically the need to make monetary policy stable and predictable to ensure that interest rate shocks are not an additional source of instability. , KMBT_363 , Adobe Acrobat 9.54 Paper Capture Plug-in
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2007
Mores, fault and fides: are these acceptable criteria when income tax deductions are claimed
- Authors: Swanepoel, Marius G
- Date: 2007
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:889 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1001643
- Description: The two “pillars” on which taxable income is based are the definition of “gross income” in section 1 of the Income Tax Act, 58 of 1962, and the “general deduction formula” comprising the preamble to section 11, section 11(a) and section 23(g) of the Act. Many of the terms used in these sections are not defined in the Income Tax Act. Case law in relation to these sections reveals that morality issues, the negligence of taxpayers and the good faith of taxpayers have from time to time been treated as relevant considerations by the courts, both abroad and in South Africa, in allowing or disallowing deductions from the gross income of taxpayers. In some instances this occurred apparently unwittingly. In other instances, earlier decisions were followed without a thorough consideration of the correctness of the underlying reasoning or of the criteria which were applied in the earlier decisions. In relation to the definition of “gross income”, however, fides, mores and fault have not been a consideration. In CIR v Delagoa Bay Cigarette Co Ltd 1918 TPD 391 Bristowe, J stated: “I do not think it is material for the purpose of this case whether the business carried on by the company is legal or illegal.” There were a number of cases heard in relation to income from illegal activities (for example, COT v G, 1981 (4) SA 167 (ZA), 43 SATC 159, and ITC 291, 7 SATC 335, which related to the misappropriation of funds, ITC 1545, 54 SATC 464, which dealt with the proceeds of the sale of stolen diamonds and ITC 1624, 59 SATC 373, which dealt with overcharging customers). In these cases, the question turned on whether or not the amounts were received by the taxpayers for their own benefit and therefore to be included in gross income, or whether the taxpayers incurred a concomitant liability to repay the amounts, and did not involve the question of fides, mores or fault. The research concludes that, providing an even-handed approach is applied to both income and expense considerations, fides and mores may continue to play a role as a useful yardstick in this context. However, that fault, particularly the causal negligence of taxpayers in the process of sustaining a loss or incurring expenditure whilst conducting their income generating operations, has effectively been jettisoned as an irrelevant consideration, is a salutary development which has contributed to legal certainty.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2007
- Authors: Swanepoel, Marius G
- Date: 2007
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:889 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1001643
- Description: The two “pillars” on which taxable income is based are the definition of “gross income” in section 1 of the Income Tax Act, 58 of 1962, and the “general deduction formula” comprising the preamble to section 11, section 11(a) and section 23(g) of the Act. Many of the terms used in these sections are not defined in the Income Tax Act. Case law in relation to these sections reveals that morality issues, the negligence of taxpayers and the good faith of taxpayers have from time to time been treated as relevant considerations by the courts, both abroad and in South Africa, in allowing or disallowing deductions from the gross income of taxpayers. In some instances this occurred apparently unwittingly. In other instances, earlier decisions were followed without a thorough consideration of the correctness of the underlying reasoning or of the criteria which were applied in the earlier decisions. In relation to the definition of “gross income”, however, fides, mores and fault have not been a consideration. In CIR v Delagoa Bay Cigarette Co Ltd 1918 TPD 391 Bristowe, J stated: “I do not think it is material for the purpose of this case whether the business carried on by the company is legal or illegal.” There were a number of cases heard in relation to income from illegal activities (for example, COT v G, 1981 (4) SA 167 (ZA), 43 SATC 159, and ITC 291, 7 SATC 335, which related to the misappropriation of funds, ITC 1545, 54 SATC 464, which dealt with the proceeds of the sale of stolen diamonds and ITC 1624, 59 SATC 373, which dealt with overcharging customers). In these cases, the question turned on whether or not the amounts were received by the taxpayers for their own benefit and therefore to be included in gross income, or whether the taxpayers incurred a concomitant liability to repay the amounts, and did not involve the question of fides, mores or fault. The research concludes that, providing an even-handed approach is applied to both income and expense considerations, fides and mores may continue to play a role as a useful yardstick in this context. However, that fault, particularly the causal negligence of taxpayers in the process of sustaining a loss or incurring expenditure whilst conducting their income generating operations, has effectively been jettisoned as an irrelevant consideration, is a salutary development which has contributed to legal certainty.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2007
Securitisation and its application to low cost housing finance in South Africa
- Authors: Zimbwa, Allan Golden
- Date: 2007
- Subjects: South Africa. Constitution , Human rights -- Government policy -- South Africa , Right to housing -- South Africa , Housing -- Law and legislation -- South Africa , Housing policy -- South Africa , Low income housing -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1011 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002746 , South Africa. Constitution , Human rights -- Government policy -- South Africa , Right to housing -- South Africa , Housing -- Law and legislation -- South Africa , Housing policy -- South Africa , Low income housing -- South Africa
- Description: Section 26 of the Constitution of South Africa Act 108 of 1996 provides that housing is a basic human right and that the government must take reasonable legislative and other measures to achieve the realisation of this right. A number of measures were taken to try to resolve this socio-economic issue. A number of housing institutions were established , various pieces of legislation were passed and housing subsidies were provided. However, housing backlogs remain a challenge. In March 1994 the housing backlog was estimated between 1,3 and 1,8 million units. When more than a million houses were provided by 2001 , the housing backlog had increased to between 2 and 3 million houses. To date subsidies in excess of R29 billion have been spent on housing provision. A study by the Department of Housing concluded that, at the current rate of increase of housing funding vis-a-vis the growing backlog and rapid urbanisation, the household backlog will not be changed in ten years' time. The United States of America (USA) had a similar low cost housing problem, but securitisation alleviated it with the participation of government agencies Fannie Mae, Ginnie Mae and Freddie Mac. In South Africa, the NHFC tried to emulate the USA model by establishing Gateway Home Loans (Pty) Limited (Gateway) in 1999. Gateway, however, was not a success. This research investigates whether securitisation can be applied in South Africa to alleviate the low cost housing issue. The study finds that there is a credit availability gap for the low income sector earning less than R8 000 per month because of the perceived risk of default and unwillingness by banks to lend to this sector. The increase in housing backlog that continues unabated, inadequate housing finance system to low income earners, the lessons learnt from the failure of Gateway, the success factors of the USA securitisation model and the sound and sophisticated South African financial system are the rationale for applying securitisation. A proposal of how to effectively apply securitisation to low cost housing in South Africa is provided with recommendations to revive the primary market.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2007
- Authors: Zimbwa, Allan Golden
- Date: 2007
- Subjects: South Africa. Constitution , Human rights -- Government policy -- South Africa , Right to housing -- South Africa , Housing -- Law and legislation -- South Africa , Housing policy -- South Africa , Low income housing -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1011 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002746 , South Africa. Constitution , Human rights -- Government policy -- South Africa , Right to housing -- South Africa , Housing -- Law and legislation -- South Africa , Housing policy -- South Africa , Low income housing -- South Africa
- Description: Section 26 of the Constitution of South Africa Act 108 of 1996 provides that housing is a basic human right and that the government must take reasonable legislative and other measures to achieve the realisation of this right. A number of measures were taken to try to resolve this socio-economic issue. A number of housing institutions were established , various pieces of legislation were passed and housing subsidies were provided. However, housing backlogs remain a challenge. In March 1994 the housing backlog was estimated between 1,3 and 1,8 million units. When more than a million houses were provided by 2001 , the housing backlog had increased to between 2 and 3 million houses. To date subsidies in excess of R29 billion have been spent on housing provision. A study by the Department of Housing concluded that, at the current rate of increase of housing funding vis-a-vis the growing backlog and rapid urbanisation, the household backlog will not be changed in ten years' time. The United States of America (USA) had a similar low cost housing problem, but securitisation alleviated it with the participation of government agencies Fannie Mae, Ginnie Mae and Freddie Mac. In South Africa, the NHFC tried to emulate the USA model by establishing Gateway Home Loans (Pty) Limited (Gateway) in 1999. Gateway, however, was not a success. This research investigates whether securitisation can be applied in South Africa to alleviate the low cost housing issue. The study finds that there is a credit availability gap for the low income sector earning less than R8 000 per month because of the perceived risk of default and unwillingness by banks to lend to this sector. The increase in housing backlog that continues unabated, inadequate housing finance system to low income earners, the lessons learnt from the failure of Gateway, the success factors of the USA securitisation model and the sound and sophisticated South African financial system are the rationale for applying securitisation. A proposal of how to effectively apply securitisation to low cost housing in South Africa is provided with recommendations to revive the primary market.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2007
The continued viability of the discretionary Inter vivos trust as an instrument for estate planning
- Lötter, Therésilda Sieglinde
- Authors: Lötter, Therésilda Sieglinde
- Date: 2007
- Subjects: Taxation -- Law and legislation -- South Africa , Trusts and trustees -- South Africa , Trusts and trustees -- Taxation -- South Africa , Estate planning -- South Africa , Estates (Law) -- South Africa
- Language: Afrikaans
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:900 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1006148 , Taxation -- Law and legislation -- South Africa , Trusts and trustees -- South Africa , Trusts and trustees -- Taxation -- South Africa , Estate planning -- South Africa , Estates (Law) -- South Africa
- Description: The purpose of this study is to determine whether a discretionary inter vivos trust is still an effective instrument for estate planning. The process of estate planning, the role the trust plays in it and the background to the trust are described. The taxability and tax saving opportunities when the trust are utilised are discussed in the light of the Estate Duty Act, 45 of 1955, the Income Tax Act, 58 of 1962 (including the Eighth Schedule thereof) and the Transfer Duty Act, 40 of 1949. The opinions of tax and legal authorities in articles and relevant case law are also discussed. The impact of the "letter of wishes" on the stipulations of the trust deed is examined. Amendments to the Income Tax Act have placed a limit on the use of a trust for estate planning through a number of anti-avoidance measures, the introduction of a capital gains tax (in the Eighth Schedule) and the imposition of a high tax rate. The increase in the deduction granted in arriving at the dutiable amount of an estate, in terms of section 4A of the Estate Duty Act, from R1 500 000 to R2 500 000 has imposed a further limit on the use of the trust as an instrument in estate planning. The research demonstrates that, notwithstanding the amendments to the Income Tax Act, the trust still is a viable instrument, mainly because the trust operates as a conduit and because of its potential use in dividing taxable income amongst a number of beneficiaries. The stipulations included in the trust deed and the "letter of wishes" (if one exists), must be thought through carefully when estate planning is done, as it can give rise to the application of the general and specific anti-avoidance provisions as included in sections 7 and 103 of this Act. The research also concludes that, in assessing the effectiveness of the trust as an instrument in tax planning, the disadvantage of paying the higher transfer duty when the immovable asset is transferred to the trust should be weighed up against the possible saving in income tax and estate duty at a later stage. It is also clear that most assets owned by the trust are tax neutral, whilst many of the amendments under discussion deal with the taxability of trust income. The quantitative considerations underlying the use of the trust as part of the estate plan, remain unchanged. The research concludes by providing a framework of quantitative and qualitative criteria that can be used by an estate planner to determine whether it will be advantageous to transfer an asset to the trust to achieve the objectives of the estate plan.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2007
- Authors: Lötter, Therésilda Sieglinde
- Date: 2007
- Subjects: Taxation -- Law and legislation -- South Africa , Trusts and trustees -- South Africa , Trusts and trustees -- Taxation -- South Africa , Estate planning -- South Africa , Estates (Law) -- South Africa
- Language: Afrikaans
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:900 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1006148 , Taxation -- Law and legislation -- South Africa , Trusts and trustees -- South Africa , Trusts and trustees -- Taxation -- South Africa , Estate planning -- South Africa , Estates (Law) -- South Africa
- Description: The purpose of this study is to determine whether a discretionary inter vivos trust is still an effective instrument for estate planning. The process of estate planning, the role the trust plays in it and the background to the trust are described. The taxability and tax saving opportunities when the trust are utilised are discussed in the light of the Estate Duty Act, 45 of 1955, the Income Tax Act, 58 of 1962 (including the Eighth Schedule thereof) and the Transfer Duty Act, 40 of 1949. The opinions of tax and legal authorities in articles and relevant case law are also discussed. The impact of the "letter of wishes" on the stipulations of the trust deed is examined. Amendments to the Income Tax Act have placed a limit on the use of a trust for estate planning through a number of anti-avoidance measures, the introduction of a capital gains tax (in the Eighth Schedule) and the imposition of a high tax rate. The increase in the deduction granted in arriving at the dutiable amount of an estate, in terms of section 4A of the Estate Duty Act, from R1 500 000 to R2 500 000 has imposed a further limit on the use of the trust as an instrument in estate planning. The research demonstrates that, notwithstanding the amendments to the Income Tax Act, the trust still is a viable instrument, mainly because the trust operates as a conduit and because of its potential use in dividing taxable income amongst a number of beneficiaries. The stipulations included in the trust deed and the "letter of wishes" (if one exists), must be thought through carefully when estate planning is done, as it can give rise to the application of the general and specific anti-avoidance provisions as included in sections 7 and 103 of this Act. The research also concludes that, in assessing the effectiveness of the trust as an instrument in tax planning, the disadvantage of paying the higher transfer duty when the immovable asset is transferred to the trust should be weighed up against the possible saving in income tax and estate duty at a later stage. It is also clear that most assets owned by the trust are tax neutral, whilst many of the amendments under discussion deal with the taxability of trust income. The quantitative considerations underlying the use of the trust as part of the estate plan, remain unchanged. The research concludes by providing a framework of quantitative and qualitative criteria that can be used by an estate planner to determine whether it will be advantageous to transfer an asset to the trust to achieve the objectives of the estate plan.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2007
The demand for broad money (M2) in Botswana
- Authors: Tsheole, Thapelo
- Date: 2007
- Subjects: Monetary policy -- Botswana , Demand for money -- Botswana , Botswana -- Economic conditions , Quantity theory of money
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:966 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002700 , Monetary policy -- Botswana , Demand for money -- Botswana , Botswana -- Economic conditions , Quantity theory of money
- Description: There has been extensive theoretical and empirical research on the subject of demand for money function. This particularly stems from the important role demand for money plays in macroeconomic analysis, especially in the design and implementation of monetary policy. The increase in studies, especially in developing countries, can also be attributed to a number of factors like: the impact of moving towards flexible exchange rate regimes, globalisation of financial markets, ongoing financial liberalisation, innovations in domestic financial products, the advancement in econometrics techniques and other country-specific events. This study estimates and examines the nature and stability of the demand for broad money (M2) in Botswana. This is particularly important in that the usefulness of a money demand function in the conduct of monetary policy depends crucially on its stability. The stability of the money demand function is crucial in that a stable money demand function would mean that the quantity of money is predictably related to a set of key economic variables linking money and the real economic sector. Therefore, this will help central banks to select appropriate monetary policy actions. Based on the findings, the study also proposes policy interventions. The vast majority of the literature on demand for money has underscored the fact that variable selection and representation, and the framework chosen are the two major issues relevant to modelling and estimation of the demand for money function. In modelling and estimating the demand for money function in Botswana, this study surveys a stream of theoretical and empirical literature on money demand in developed and developing countries, including countries that have similar financial sector similar to Botswana. Due consideration is also given to the macroeconomic and financial sector development in Botswana to help in the identification of the variables that are included in the demand for money equation. Most importantly, this helped in getting meaningful results that are free from theoretical and estimation problems. In particular, this study applied the multivariate cointegration approach as proposed by Johansen (1988) and Johansen and Juselius (1990) to estimate the relationship between broad money (M2), real income, interest rate, South African treasury bill rate, inflation rate and US dollar/pula bilateral exchange rate. The study obtains one unique long run relationship between money and the scale and opportunity cost variables. The coefficients of the long run relationship are then modelled along the general to specific approach as proposed by Campos, Ericsson and Hendry (2005). In this type of approach the general model is reduced by sequential elimination of statistically insignificant variables and checking the validity of the reductions at every stage to ensure congruence of the finally selected parsimonious model. In accordance with the economic quantity theory of money, the long run income elasticity obtained is 0.8021, which is close to the value one (unitary) suggested by economic theory. The coefficients of real income, exchange and inflation rate have the expected positive signs and were significant in the long run. Therefore, the long run demand for money (M2) in Botswana was found to be positively affected by real income, inflation rate and exchange rate. The lack of statistical significant of the own rate of money (88 day commercial bank deposit rate) and the foreign opportunity cost variable (South African Treasury bill rate) is attributed to multi-collinearity problems between these two interest rates. This could be caused by the fact that short term rates in Botswana are very responsive to movements in the money markets rates in South Africa. The short run dynamics of the demand for money function shows the slow speed of adjustment to equilibrium of about 2.9 percent in the first quarter and this is reflective of the lack of sufficient availability of banking services and the low returns on financial assets which could allow economic agents to re-establish equilibrium levels of money holdings faster. The final parsimonious model obtained clearly reflects a well specified stable demand for money function. Therefore, based on the findings we can be precise in stating that targeting a monetary aggregate can be a viable policy for the monetary authorities in Botswana.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2007
- Authors: Tsheole, Thapelo
- Date: 2007
- Subjects: Monetary policy -- Botswana , Demand for money -- Botswana , Botswana -- Economic conditions , Quantity theory of money
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:966 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002700 , Monetary policy -- Botswana , Demand for money -- Botswana , Botswana -- Economic conditions , Quantity theory of money
- Description: There has been extensive theoretical and empirical research on the subject of demand for money function. This particularly stems from the important role demand for money plays in macroeconomic analysis, especially in the design and implementation of monetary policy. The increase in studies, especially in developing countries, can also be attributed to a number of factors like: the impact of moving towards flexible exchange rate regimes, globalisation of financial markets, ongoing financial liberalisation, innovations in domestic financial products, the advancement in econometrics techniques and other country-specific events. This study estimates and examines the nature and stability of the demand for broad money (M2) in Botswana. This is particularly important in that the usefulness of a money demand function in the conduct of monetary policy depends crucially on its stability. The stability of the money demand function is crucial in that a stable money demand function would mean that the quantity of money is predictably related to a set of key economic variables linking money and the real economic sector. Therefore, this will help central banks to select appropriate monetary policy actions. Based on the findings, the study also proposes policy interventions. The vast majority of the literature on demand for money has underscored the fact that variable selection and representation, and the framework chosen are the two major issues relevant to modelling and estimation of the demand for money function. In modelling and estimating the demand for money function in Botswana, this study surveys a stream of theoretical and empirical literature on money demand in developed and developing countries, including countries that have similar financial sector similar to Botswana. Due consideration is also given to the macroeconomic and financial sector development in Botswana to help in the identification of the variables that are included in the demand for money equation. Most importantly, this helped in getting meaningful results that are free from theoretical and estimation problems. In particular, this study applied the multivariate cointegration approach as proposed by Johansen (1988) and Johansen and Juselius (1990) to estimate the relationship between broad money (M2), real income, interest rate, South African treasury bill rate, inflation rate and US dollar/pula bilateral exchange rate. The study obtains one unique long run relationship between money and the scale and opportunity cost variables. The coefficients of the long run relationship are then modelled along the general to specific approach as proposed by Campos, Ericsson and Hendry (2005). In this type of approach the general model is reduced by sequential elimination of statistically insignificant variables and checking the validity of the reductions at every stage to ensure congruence of the finally selected parsimonious model. In accordance with the economic quantity theory of money, the long run income elasticity obtained is 0.8021, which is close to the value one (unitary) suggested by economic theory. The coefficients of real income, exchange and inflation rate have the expected positive signs and were significant in the long run. Therefore, the long run demand for money (M2) in Botswana was found to be positively affected by real income, inflation rate and exchange rate. The lack of statistical significant of the own rate of money (88 day commercial bank deposit rate) and the foreign opportunity cost variable (South African Treasury bill rate) is attributed to multi-collinearity problems between these two interest rates. This could be caused by the fact that short term rates in Botswana are very responsive to movements in the money markets rates in South Africa. The short run dynamics of the demand for money function shows the slow speed of adjustment to equilibrium of about 2.9 percent in the first quarter and this is reflective of the lack of sufficient availability of banking services and the low returns on financial assets which could allow economic agents to re-establish equilibrium levels of money holdings faster. The final parsimonious model obtained clearly reflects a well specified stable demand for money function. Therefore, based on the findings we can be precise in stating that targeting a monetary aggregate can be a viable policy for the monetary authorities in Botswana.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2007
The term structure of interest rates and economic activity in South Africa
- Authors: Shelile, Teboho
- Date: 2007
- Subjects: Finance -- South Africa , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic conditions -- 21st century
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:994 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002729 , Finance -- South Africa , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic conditions -- 21st century
- Description: Many research papers have documented the positive relationship between the slope of the yield curve and future real economic activity in different countries and different time periods. One explanation of this link is based on monetary policy. The forecasting ability of the term spread on economic growth is based on the fact that interest rates reflect the expectations of investors about the future economic situation when deciding about their plans for consumption and investment. This thesis examined the predictive ability of the term structure of interest rates on economic activity, and the effects of different monetary policy regimes on the predictive ability of the term spread. The South African experience offers a unique opportunity to examine this issue, as the country has experienced numerous monetary policy frameworks since the 1970s. The study employed the Generalised Method Moments technique, since it is considered to be more efficient than Ordinary Least Squares. Results presented in this thesis established that the term structure successfully predicted real economic activity during the entire research period with the exception of the last sub-period (2000-2004) when using the multivariate model. In the periods of financial market liberalisation and interest rates deregulation the term structure was found to be a better predictor of economic activity in South Africa. These findings emphasise the importance of considering the prevailing economic environment in testing the term structure theory.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2007
- Authors: Shelile, Teboho
- Date: 2007
- Subjects: Finance -- South Africa , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic conditions -- 21st century
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:994 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002729 , Finance -- South Africa , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic conditions -- 21st century
- Description: Many research papers have documented the positive relationship between the slope of the yield curve and future real economic activity in different countries and different time periods. One explanation of this link is based on monetary policy. The forecasting ability of the term spread on economic growth is based on the fact that interest rates reflect the expectations of investors about the future economic situation when deciding about their plans for consumption and investment. This thesis examined the predictive ability of the term structure of interest rates on economic activity, and the effects of different monetary policy regimes on the predictive ability of the term spread. The South African experience offers a unique opportunity to examine this issue, as the country has experienced numerous monetary policy frameworks since the 1970s. The study employed the Generalised Method Moments technique, since it is considered to be more efficient than Ordinary Least Squares. Results presented in this thesis established that the term structure successfully predicted real economic activity during the entire research period with the exception of the last sub-period (2000-2004) when using the multivariate model. In the periods of financial market liberalisation and interest rates deregulation the term structure was found to be a better predictor of economic activity in South Africa. These findings emphasise the importance of considering the prevailing economic environment in testing the term structure theory.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2007
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