The development of an ionospheric storm-time index for the South African region
- Authors: Tshisaphungo, Mpho
- Date: 2021-04
- Subjects: Ionospheric storms -- South Africa , Global Positioning System , Neural networks (Computer science) , Regression analysis , Ionosondes , Auroral electrojet , Geomagnetic indexes , Magnetic storms -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: thesis , text , Doctoral , PhD
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/178409 , vital:42937 , 10.21504/10962/178409
- Description: This thesis presents the development of a regional ionospheric storm-time model which forms the foundation of an index to provide a quick view of the ionospheric storm effects over South African mid-latitude region. The model is based on the foF2 measurements from four South African ionosonde stations. The data coverage for the model development over Grahamstown (33.3◦S, 26.5◦E), Hermanus (34.42◦S, 19.22◦E), Louisvale (28.50◦S, 21.20◦E), and Madimbo (22.39◦S, 30.88◦E) is 1996-2016, 2009-2016, 2000-2016, and 2000-2016 respectively. Data from the Global Positioning System (GPS) and radio occultation (RO) technique were used during validation. As the measure of either positive or negative storm effect, the variation of the critical frequency of the F2 layer (foF2) from the monthly median values (denoted as _foF2) is modeled. The modeling of _foF2 is based on only storm time data with the criteria of Dst 6 -50 nT and Kp > 4. The modeling methods used in the study were artificial neural network (ANN), linear regression (LR) and polynomial functions. The approach taken was to first test the modeling techniques on a single station before expanding the study to cover the regional aspect. The single station modeling was developed based on ionosonde data over Grahamstown. The inputs for the model which related to seasonal variation, diurnal variation, geomagnetic activity and solar activity were considered. For the geomagnetic activity, three indices namely; the symmetric disturbance in the horizontal component of the Earth’s magnetic field (SYM − H), the Auroral Electrojet (AE) index and local geomagnetic index A, were included as inputs. The performance of a single station model revealed that, of the three geomagnetic indices, SYM − H index has the largest contribution of 41% and 54% based on ANN and LR techniques respectively. The average correlation coefficients (R) for both ANN and LR models was 0.8, when validated during the selected storms falling within the period of model development. When validated using storms that fall outside the period of model development, the model gave R values of 0.6 and 0.5 for ANN and LR respectively. In addition, the GPS total electron content (TEC) derived measurements were used to estimate foF2 data. This is because there are more GPS receivers than ionosonde locations and the utilisation of this data increases the spatial coverage of the regional model. The estimation of foF2 from GPS TEC was done at GPS-ionosonde co-locations using polynomial functions. The average R values of 0.69 and 0.65 were obtained between actual and derived _foF2 over the co-locations and other GPS stations respectively. Validation of GPS TEC derived foF2 with RO data over regions out of ionospheric pierce points coverage with respect to ionosonde locations gave R greater than 0.9 for the selected storm period of 4-8 August 2011. The regional storm-time model was then developed based on the ANN technique using the four South African ionosonde stations. The maximum and minimum R values of 0.6 and 0.5 were obtained over ionosonde and GPS locations respectively. This model forms the basis towards the regional ionospheric storm-time index. , Thesis (PhD) -- Faculty of Science, Physics and Electronics, 2021
- Full Text:
- Authors: Tshisaphungo, Mpho
- Date: 2021-04
- Subjects: Ionospheric storms -- South Africa , Global Positioning System , Neural networks (Computer science) , Regression analysis , Ionosondes , Auroral electrojet , Geomagnetic indexes , Magnetic storms -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: thesis , text , Doctoral , PhD
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/178409 , vital:42937 , 10.21504/10962/178409
- Description: This thesis presents the development of a regional ionospheric storm-time model which forms the foundation of an index to provide a quick view of the ionospheric storm effects over South African mid-latitude region. The model is based on the foF2 measurements from four South African ionosonde stations. The data coverage for the model development over Grahamstown (33.3◦S, 26.5◦E), Hermanus (34.42◦S, 19.22◦E), Louisvale (28.50◦S, 21.20◦E), and Madimbo (22.39◦S, 30.88◦E) is 1996-2016, 2009-2016, 2000-2016, and 2000-2016 respectively. Data from the Global Positioning System (GPS) and radio occultation (RO) technique were used during validation. As the measure of either positive or negative storm effect, the variation of the critical frequency of the F2 layer (foF2) from the monthly median values (denoted as _foF2) is modeled. The modeling of _foF2 is based on only storm time data with the criteria of Dst 6 -50 nT and Kp > 4. The modeling methods used in the study were artificial neural network (ANN), linear regression (LR) and polynomial functions. The approach taken was to first test the modeling techniques on a single station before expanding the study to cover the regional aspect. The single station modeling was developed based on ionosonde data over Grahamstown. The inputs for the model which related to seasonal variation, diurnal variation, geomagnetic activity and solar activity were considered. For the geomagnetic activity, three indices namely; the symmetric disturbance in the horizontal component of the Earth’s magnetic field (SYM − H), the Auroral Electrojet (AE) index and local geomagnetic index A, were included as inputs. The performance of a single station model revealed that, of the three geomagnetic indices, SYM − H index has the largest contribution of 41% and 54% based on ANN and LR techniques respectively. The average correlation coefficients (R) for both ANN and LR models was 0.8, when validated during the selected storms falling within the period of model development. When validated using storms that fall outside the period of model development, the model gave R values of 0.6 and 0.5 for ANN and LR respectively. In addition, the GPS total electron content (TEC) derived measurements were used to estimate foF2 data. This is because there are more GPS receivers than ionosonde locations and the utilisation of this data increases the spatial coverage of the regional model. The estimation of foF2 from GPS TEC was done at GPS-ionosonde co-locations using polynomial functions. The average R values of 0.69 and 0.65 were obtained between actual and derived _foF2 over the co-locations and other GPS stations respectively. Validation of GPS TEC derived foF2 with RO data over regions out of ionospheric pierce points coverage with respect to ionosonde locations gave R greater than 0.9 for the selected storm period of 4-8 August 2011. The regional storm-time model was then developed based on the ANN technique using the four South African ionosonde stations. The maximum and minimum R values of 0.6 and 0.5 were obtained over ionosonde and GPS locations respectively. This model forms the basis towards the regional ionospheric storm-time index. , Thesis (PhD) -- Faculty of Science, Physics and Electronics, 2021
- Full Text:
Modelling storm-time TEC changes using linear and non-linear techniques
- Authors: Uwamahoro, Jean Claude
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: Magnetic storms , Astronomy -- Computer programs , Imaging systems in astronomy , Ionospheric storms , Electrons -- Measurement , Magnetosphere -- Observations
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Doctoral , PhD
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/92908 , vital:30762
- Description: Statistical models based on empirical orthogonal functions (EOF) analysis and non-linear regression analysis (NLRA) were developed for the purpose of estimating the ionospheric total electron content (TEC) during geomagnetic storms. The well-known least squares method (LSM) and Metropolis-Hastings algorithm (MHA) were used as optimization techniques to determine the unknown coefficients of the developed analytical expressions. Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs), the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) model, and the Multi-Instrument Data Analysis System (MIDAS) tomographic inversion algorithm were also applied to storm-time TEC modelling/reconstruction for various latitudes of the African sector and surrounding areas. This work presents some of the first statistical modeling of the mid-latitude and low-latitude ionosphere during geomagnetic storms that includes solar, geomagnetic and neutral wind drivers.Development and validation of the empirical models were based on storm-time TEC data derived from the global positioning system (GPS) measurements over ground receivers within Africa and surrounding areas. The storm criterion applied was Dst 6 −50 nT and/or Kp > 4. The performance evaluation of MIDAS compared with ANNs to reconstruct storm-time TEC over the African low- and mid-latitude regions showed that MIDAS and ANNs provide comparable results. Their respective mean absolute error (MAE) values were 4.81 and 4.18 TECU. The ANN model was, however, found to perform 24.37 % better than MIDAS at estimating storm-time TEC for low latitudes, while MIDAS is 13.44 % more accurate than ANN for the mid-latitudes. When their performances are compared with the IRI model, both MIDAS and ANN model were found to provide more accurate storm-time TEC reconstructions for the African low- and mid-latitude regions. A comparative study of the performances of EOF, NLRA, ANN, and IRI models to estimate TEC during geomagnetic storm conditions over various latitudes showed that the ANN model is about 10 %, 26 %, and 58 % more accurate than EOF, NLRA, and IRI models, respectively, while EOF was found to perform 15 %, and 44 % better than NLRA and IRI, respectively. It was further found that the NLRA model is 25 % more accurate than the IRI model. We have also investigated for the first time, the role of meridional neutral winds (from the Horizontal Wind Model) to storm-time TEC modelling in the low latitude, northern and southern hemisphere mid-latitude regions of the African sector, based on ANN models. Statistics have shown that the inclusion of the meridional wind velocity in TEC modelling during geomagnetic storms leads to percentage improvements of about 5 % for the low latitude, 10 % and 5 % for the northern and southern hemisphere mid-latitude regions, respectively. High-latitude storm-induced winds and the inter-hemispheric blows of the meridional winds from summer to winter hemisphere have been suggested to be associated with these improvements.
- Full Text:
- Authors: Uwamahoro, Jean Claude
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: Magnetic storms , Astronomy -- Computer programs , Imaging systems in astronomy , Ionospheric storms , Electrons -- Measurement , Magnetosphere -- Observations
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Doctoral , PhD
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/92908 , vital:30762
- Description: Statistical models based on empirical orthogonal functions (EOF) analysis and non-linear regression analysis (NLRA) were developed for the purpose of estimating the ionospheric total electron content (TEC) during geomagnetic storms. The well-known least squares method (LSM) and Metropolis-Hastings algorithm (MHA) were used as optimization techniques to determine the unknown coefficients of the developed analytical expressions. Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs), the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) model, and the Multi-Instrument Data Analysis System (MIDAS) tomographic inversion algorithm were also applied to storm-time TEC modelling/reconstruction for various latitudes of the African sector and surrounding areas. This work presents some of the first statistical modeling of the mid-latitude and low-latitude ionosphere during geomagnetic storms that includes solar, geomagnetic and neutral wind drivers.Development and validation of the empirical models were based on storm-time TEC data derived from the global positioning system (GPS) measurements over ground receivers within Africa and surrounding areas. The storm criterion applied was Dst 6 −50 nT and/or Kp > 4. The performance evaluation of MIDAS compared with ANNs to reconstruct storm-time TEC over the African low- and mid-latitude regions showed that MIDAS and ANNs provide comparable results. Their respective mean absolute error (MAE) values were 4.81 and 4.18 TECU. The ANN model was, however, found to perform 24.37 % better than MIDAS at estimating storm-time TEC for low latitudes, while MIDAS is 13.44 % more accurate than ANN for the mid-latitudes. When their performances are compared with the IRI model, both MIDAS and ANN model were found to provide more accurate storm-time TEC reconstructions for the African low- and mid-latitude regions. A comparative study of the performances of EOF, NLRA, ANN, and IRI models to estimate TEC during geomagnetic storm conditions over various latitudes showed that the ANN model is about 10 %, 26 %, and 58 % more accurate than EOF, NLRA, and IRI models, respectively, while EOF was found to perform 15 %, and 44 % better than NLRA and IRI, respectively. It was further found that the NLRA model is 25 % more accurate than the IRI model. We have also investigated for the first time, the role of meridional neutral winds (from the Horizontal Wind Model) to storm-time TEC modelling in the low latitude, northern and southern hemisphere mid-latitude regions of the African sector, based on ANN models. Statistics have shown that the inclusion of the meridional wind velocity in TEC modelling during geomagnetic storms leads to percentage improvements of about 5 % for the low latitude, 10 % and 5 % for the northern and southern hemisphere mid-latitude regions, respectively. High-latitude storm-induced winds and the inter-hemispheric blows of the meridional winds from summer to winter hemisphere have been suggested to be associated with these improvements.
- Full Text:
Long-term analysis of ionospheric response during geomagnetic storms in mid, low and equatorial latitudes
- Matamba, Tshimangadzo Merline
- Authors: Matamba, Tshimangadzo Merline
- Date: 2018
- Subjects: Ionospheric storms , Coronal mass ejections , Corotating interaction regions , Solar flares , Global Positioning System , Ionospheric critical frequencies , Equatorial Ionization Anomaly (EIA)
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Doctoral , PhD
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/63991 , vital:28517
- Description: Understanding changes in the ionosphere is important for High Frequency (HF) communications and navigation systems. Ionospheric storms are the disturbances in the Earth’s upper atmosphere due to solar activities such as Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs), Corotating interaction Regions (CIRs) and solar flares. This thesis reports for the first time on an investigation of ionospheric response to great geomagnetic storms (Disturbance storm time, Dst ≤ −350 nT) that occurred during solar cycle 23. The storm periods analysed were 29 March - 02 April 2001, 27 - 31 October 2003, 18 - 23 November 2003 and 06 - 11 November 2004. Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS), Total Electron Content (TEC) and ionosonde critical frequency of F2 layer (foF2) data over northern hemisphere (European sector) and southern hemisphere (African sector) mid-latitudes were used to study the ionospheric responses within 15E° - 40°E longitude and ±31°- ±46° geomagnetic latitude. Mid-latitude regions within the same longitude sector in both hemispheres were selected in order to assess the contribution of the low latitude changes especially the expansion of Equatorial Ionization Anomaly (EIA) also known as the dayside ionospheric super-fountain effect during these storms. In all storm periods, both negative and positive ionospheric responses were observed in both hemispheres. Negative ionospheric responses were mainly due to changes in neutral composition, while the expansion of the EIA led to pronounced positive ionospheric storm effect at mid-latitudes for some storm periods. In other cases (e.g 29 October 2003), Prompt Penetration Electric Fields (PPEF), EIA expansion and large scale Traveling Ionospheric Disturbances (TIDs) were found to be present during the positive storm effect at mid-latitudes in both hemispheres. An increase in TEC on the 28 October 2003 was because of the large solar flare with previously determined intensity of X45± 5. A further report on statistical analysis of ionospheric storm effects due to Corotating Interaction Region (CIR)- and Coronal Mass Ejection (CME)-driven storms was performed. The storm periods analyzed occurred during the period 2001 - 2015 which covers part of solar cycles 23 and 24. Dst≤ -30 nT and Kp≥ 3 indices were used to identify the storm periods considered. Ionospheric TEC derived from IGS stations that lie within 30°E - 40°E geographic longitude in mid, low and equatorial latitude over the African sector were used. The statistical analysis of ionospheric storm effects were compared over mid, low and equatorial latitudes in the African sector for the first time. Positive ionospheric storm effects were more prevalent during CME-driven and CIR-driven over all stations considered in this study. Negative ionospheric storm effects occurred only during CME-driven storms over mid-latitude stations and were more prevalent in summer. The other interesting finding is that for the stations considered over mid-, low, and equatorial latitudes, negative-positive ionospheric responses were only observed over low and equatorial latitudes. A significant number of cases where the electron density changes remained within the background variability during storm conditions were observed over the low latitude stations compared to other latitude regions.
- Full Text:
- Authors: Matamba, Tshimangadzo Merline
- Date: 2018
- Subjects: Ionospheric storms , Coronal mass ejections , Corotating interaction regions , Solar flares , Global Positioning System , Ionospheric critical frequencies , Equatorial Ionization Anomaly (EIA)
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Doctoral , PhD
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/63991 , vital:28517
- Description: Understanding changes in the ionosphere is important for High Frequency (HF) communications and navigation systems. Ionospheric storms are the disturbances in the Earth’s upper atmosphere due to solar activities such as Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs), Corotating interaction Regions (CIRs) and solar flares. This thesis reports for the first time on an investigation of ionospheric response to great geomagnetic storms (Disturbance storm time, Dst ≤ −350 nT) that occurred during solar cycle 23. The storm periods analysed were 29 March - 02 April 2001, 27 - 31 October 2003, 18 - 23 November 2003 and 06 - 11 November 2004. Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS), Total Electron Content (TEC) and ionosonde critical frequency of F2 layer (foF2) data over northern hemisphere (European sector) and southern hemisphere (African sector) mid-latitudes were used to study the ionospheric responses within 15E° - 40°E longitude and ±31°- ±46° geomagnetic latitude. Mid-latitude regions within the same longitude sector in both hemispheres were selected in order to assess the contribution of the low latitude changes especially the expansion of Equatorial Ionization Anomaly (EIA) also known as the dayside ionospheric super-fountain effect during these storms. In all storm periods, both negative and positive ionospheric responses were observed in both hemispheres. Negative ionospheric responses were mainly due to changes in neutral composition, while the expansion of the EIA led to pronounced positive ionospheric storm effect at mid-latitudes for some storm periods. In other cases (e.g 29 October 2003), Prompt Penetration Electric Fields (PPEF), EIA expansion and large scale Traveling Ionospheric Disturbances (TIDs) were found to be present during the positive storm effect at mid-latitudes in both hemispheres. An increase in TEC on the 28 October 2003 was because of the large solar flare with previously determined intensity of X45± 5. A further report on statistical analysis of ionospheric storm effects due to Corotating Interaction Region (CIR)- and Coronal Mass Ejection (CME)-driven storms was performed. The storm periods analyzed occurred during the period 2001 - 2015 which covers part of solar cycles 23 and 24. Dst≤ -30 nT and Kp≥ 3 indices were used to identify the storm periods considered. Ionospheric TEC derived from IGS stations that lie within 30°E - 40°E geographic longitude in mid, low and equatorial latitude over the African sector were used. The statistical analysis of ionospheric storm effects were compared over mid, low and equatorial latitudes in the African sector for the first time. Positive ionospheric storm effects were more prevalent during CME-driven and CIR-driven over all stations considered in this study. Negative ionospheric storm effects occurred only during CME-driven storms over mid-latitude stations and were more prevalent in summer. The other interesting finding is that for the stations considered over mid-, low, and equatorial latitudes, negative-positive ionospheric responses were only observed over low and equatorial latitudes. A significant number of cases where the electron density changes remained within the background variability during storm conditions were observed over the low latitude stations compared to other latitude regions.
- Full Text:
Modelling Ionospheric vertical drifts over the African low latitude region
- Dubazane, Makhosonke Berthwell
- Authors: Dubazane, Makhosonke Berthwell
- Date: 2018
- Subjects: Ionospheric drift , Magnetometers , Functions, Orthogonal , Neural networks (Computer science) , Ionospheric electron density -- Africa , Communication and Navigation Outage Forecasting Systems (C/NOFS)
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Doctoral , PhD
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/63356 , vital:28396
- Description: Low/equatorial latitudes vertical plasma drifts and electric fields govern the formation and changes of ionospheric density structures which affect space-based systems such as communications, navigation and positioning. Dynamical and electrodynamical processes play important roles in plasma distribution at different altitudes. Because of the high variability of E × B drift in low latitude regions, coupled with various processes that sometimes originate from high latitudes especially during geomagnetic storm conditions, it is challenging to develop accurate vertical drift models. This is despite the fact that there are very few instruments dedicated to provide electric field and hence E × B drift data in low/equatorial latitude regions. To this effect, there exists no ground-based instrument for direct measurements of E×B drift data in the African sector. This study presents the first time investigation aimed at modelling the long-term variability of low latitude vertical E × B drift over the African sector using a combination of Communication and Navigation Outage Forecasting Systems (C/NOFS) and ground-based magnetometer observations/measurements during 2008-2013. Because the approach is based on the estimation of equatorial electrojet from ground-based magnetometer observations, the developed models are only valid for local daytime. Three modelling techniques have been considered. The application of Empirical Orthogonal Functions and partial least squares has been performed on vertical E × B drift modelling for the first time. The artificial neural networks that have the advantage of learning underlying changes between a set of inputs and known output were also used in vertical E × B drift modelling. Due to lack of E×B drift data over the African sector, the developed models were validated using satellite data and the climatological Scherliess-Fejer model incorporated within the International Reference Ionosphere model. Maximum correlation coefficient of ∼ 0.8 was achieved when validating the developed models with C/NOFS E × B drift observations that were not used in any model development. For most of the time, the climatological model overestimates the local daytime vertical E × B drift velocities. The methods and approach presented in this study provide a background for constructing vertical E ×B drift databases in longitude sectors that do not have radar instrumentation. This will in turn make it possible to study day-to-day variability of vertical E×B drift and hopefully lead to the development of regional and global models that will incorporate local time information in different longitude sectors.
- Full Text:
- Authors: Dubazane, Makhosonke Berthwell
- Date: 2018
- Subjects: Ionospheric drift , Magnetometers , Functions, Orthogonal , Neural networks (Computer science) , Ionospheric electron density -- Africa , Communication and Navigation Outage Forecasting Systems (C/NOFS)
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Doctoral , PhD
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/63356 , vital:28396
- Description: Low/equatorial latitudes vertical plasma drifts and electric fields govern the formation and changes of ionospheric density structures which affect space-based systems such as communications, navigation and positioning. Dynamical and electrodynamical processes play important roles in plasma distribution at different altitudes. Because of the high variability of E × B drift in low latitude regions, coupled with various processes that sometimes originate from high latitudes especially during geomagnetic storm conditions, it is challenging to develop accurate vertical drift models. This is despite the fact that there are very few instruments dedicated to provide electric field and hence E × B drift data in low/equatorial latitude regions. To this effect, there exists no ground-based instrument for direct measurements of E×B drift data in the African sector. This study presents the first time investigation aimed at modelling the long-term variability of low latitude vertical E × B drift over the African sector using a combination of Communication and Navigation Outage Forecasting Systems (C/NOFS) and ground-based magnetometer observations/measurements during 2008-2013. Because the approach is based on the estimation of equatorial electrojet from ground-based magnetometer observations, the developed models are only valid for local daytime. Three modelling techniques have been considered. The application of Empirical Orthogonal Functions and partial least squares has been performed on vertical E × B drift modelling for the first time. The artificial neural networks that have the advantage of learning underlying changes between a set of inputs and known output were also used in vertical E × B drift modelling. Due to lack of E×B drift data over the African sector, the developed models were validated using satellite data and the climatological Scherliess-Fejer model incorporated within the International Reference Ionosphere model. Maximum correlation coefficient of ∼ 0.8 was achieved when validating the developed models with C/NOFS E × B drift observations that were not used in any model development. For most of the time, the climatological model overestimates the local daytime vertical E × B drift velocities. The methods and approach presented in this study provide a background for constructing vertical E ×B drift databases in longitude sectors that do not have radar instrumentation. This will in turn make it possible to study day-to-day variability of vertical E×B drift and hopefully lead to the development of regional and global models that will incorporate local time information in different longitude sectors.
- Full Text:
- «
- ‹
- 1
- ›
- »