A comparative analysis of the determinants of South Africa bilateral trade flows with the European Union-Southern African development community economic partnership agreement and trade development and cooperation agreement
- Authors: Mhaka, Simbarashe
- Date: 2018
- Subjects: South Africa -- Economic integration , Africa, Southern -- Economic integration , Southern African Customs Union
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/31875 , vital:31857
- Description: This research dissertation presents the impact of economic size, market size and exchange rate on South Africa’s trade flows with the European Union under the Trade Development and Cooperation Agreement (TDCA). The Big Five EU members are used to represent the EU trading bloc. The research also examines the effects of economic size, market size and ex-change rate on South African trade flows with members of the Southern African Customs Union and of the European Union in what is called the European Union-Southern African Development Community Economic Partnership Agreement (EU-SADC EPA). The research employs comparative analysis aimed at identifying the differences in the effects of market size, economic size and exchange rate on South Africa’s trade flows with these two trading blocs. The study exploits panel data on international trade of South Africa over the period 2000-’16. A gravity model of trade is used to identify the effect of these three variables on South Africa’s trade flows. The empirical analysis relies on a panel data econometrics framework as an estimation technique for the gravity model of trade between South Africa and the Big Five EU members. This shows the outcomes of the effects of economic size, market size and exchange rate on the trade flows of South Africa in the TDCA. The same technique is applied to estimate the effects of economic size, market size and exchange rate to trade flows of South Africa with the Big Five EU members as well as the other SACU members representing the SADC-EU EPA. In the panel data approach, three models are adopted. These are pooled OLS, fixed effects and random effects that can be estimated. The Hausman tests shows that the random effect is appropriate in the TDCA gravity function and the results indicate a positive relationship be-tween South Africa’s economic/market size and South Africa’s trade flows in the TDCA. In the EU-SADC EPA, the Hausman tests indicated that the fixed effect models are appropriate and the results show a positive relationship between economic size and market size with South Africa’s trade flows in the EU-SADC EPA. However, in the TDCA, the random effect model shows that exchange rate and the trading partner’s market size have a negative outcome on South Africa trade flows. The fixed effect model shows a negative relationship between the exchange rate and South Africa’s trade flows in the EU-SADC EPA. The results also show that it is better for South Africa to trade in the EU-SADC EPA than to remain in the TDCA. This is because the outcomes of economic and market size on South Africa’s trade flows are greater in the EU-SADC EPA than in the TDCA. On the other hand the negative effect of the exchange rate on South Africa’s trade flows is less in the EU-SADC EPA than in the TDCA. The research recommends that policy-makers select trading partners based on the sizes of their markets and economies.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2018
- Authors: Mhaka, Simbarashe
- Date: 2018
- Subjects: South Africa -- Economic integration , Africa, Southern -- Economic integration , Southern African Customs Union
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/31875 , vital:31857
- Description: This research dissertation presents the impact of economic size, market size and exchange rate on South Africa’s trade flows with the European Union under the Trade Development and Cooperation Agreement (TDCA). The Big Five EU members are used to represent the EU trading bloc. The research also examines the effects of economic size, market size and ex-change rate on South African trade flows with members of the Southern African Customs Union and of the European Union in what is called the European Union-Southern African Development Community Economic Partnership Agreement (EU-SADC EPA). The research employs comparative analysis aimed at identifying the differences in the effects of market size, economic size and exchange rate on South Africa’s trade flows with these two trading blocs. The study exploits panel data on international trade of South Africa over the period 2000-’16. A gravity model of trade is used to identify the effect of these three variables on South Africa’s trade flows. The empirical analysis relies on a panel data econometrics framework as an estimation technique for the gravity model of trade between South Africa and the Big Five EU members. This shows the outcomes of the effects of economic size, market size and exchange rate on the trade flows of South Africa in the TDCA. The same technique is applied to estimate the effects of economic size, market size and exchange rate to trade flows of South Africa with the Big Five EU members as well as the other SACU members representing the SADC-EU EPA. In the panel data approach, three models are adopted. These are pooled OLS, fixed effects and random effects that can be estimated. The Hausman tests shows that the random effect is appropriate in the TDCA gravity function and the results indicate a positive relationship be-tween South Africa’s economic/market size and South Africa’s trade flows in the TDCA. In the EU-SADC EPA, the Hausman tests indicated that the fixed effect models are appropriate and the results show a positive relationship between economic size and market size with South Africa’s trade flows in the EU-SADC EPA. However, in the TDCA, the random effect model shows that exchange rate and the trading partner’s market size have a negative outcome on South Africa trade flows. The fixed effect model shows a negative relationship between the exchange rate and South Africa’s trade flows in the EU-SADC EPA. The results also show that it is better for South Africa to trade in the EU-SADC EPA than to remain in the TDCA. This is because the outcomes of economic and market size on South Africa’s trade flows are greater in the EU-SADC EPA than in the TDCA. On the other hand the negative effect of the exchange rate on South Africa’s trade flows is less in the EU-SADC EPA than in the TDCA. The research recommends that policy-makers select trading partners based on the sizes of their markets and economies.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2018
Regional value chains and development integration in the SADC Region: the case of the pharmaceutical industry
- Authors: Faydherbe, Sean
- Date: 2018
- Subjects: Pharmaceutical industry -- Africa, Southern , Southern African Development Community , Africa, Southern -- Economic integration , Regional value chains (RVCs) , Global value chains (GVCs)
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/62906 , vital:28309
- Description: This thesis investigates how regional value chains (RVCs) can be used to further development integration in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) region with a focus on the pharmaceutical manufacturing industry. The study is motivated by the apparent lack of attention given to the development of the pharmaceutical manufacturing industry in Southern Africa, the region’s high disease burden and the identification of the industry as economically and socially important by the SADC (2015) Industrialisation Strategy and Roadmap and the Department of Trade and Industry (DTI) (2017a) Industrial Policy Action Plan (IPAP). At the same time, South Africa and other countries in the region are exploring alternative approaches to regional integration, given the failure or stagnation of numerous formal integration arrangements throughout Africa, which have often lead to polarised rather than balanced development. This thesis argues that the development of RVCs within SADC may be an effective tool for development integration in the region, particularly in sectors such as pharmaceuticals. The study employs a value chain framework for the analysis and discusses development integration options, drawing on the East Asian experience with RVCs and on case studies involving India in the case of the pharmaceutical industry. It provides a sector profile of the industry in South Africa, due to its dominant status in the region, and also of Zimbabwe, due to that country’s potential to become a pharmaceutical industry leader in the region once again. The thesis first explores the important theoretical aspects underlying value chain analysis, namely governance and upgrading, while also outlining the rise of global value chains (GVCs). It analyses the complex relationships between RVCs and GVCs, and RVCs and regional integration. From this it concludes that RVCs are a stepping stone to participation in GVCs and that RVCs should be promoted within a development integration framework through strong regional cooperation. Value chain analysis is applied to the entire pharmaceutical manufacturing industry with a focus on SADC. The thesis examines how the sector is evolving with manufacturing multinational corporations (MNCs) outsourcing production and setting up centres of excellence in regional production hubs. The study argues that with the application of recommended policies, RVCs in sectors such as pharmaceutical manufacturing may provide a tool for achieving balanced development in the region. However, the study also finds that the pharmaceutical industry in SADC lags a long way behind the rest of the world and that many countries and firms will need to begin at the bottom of the value chain, with formulation, in order to contribute to the development of RVCs. The thesis concludes with recommendations on what policies are needed to foster the growth and development of pharmaceutical RVCs in the SADC region. These include strengthening public procurement, providing incentives for investment into the industry, incremental production and incremental export volumes, as well as certainty and predictability around the regulatory and business environment. Further, policy should aim to construct synergies and linkages on the ground between health systems and industrial developments; regulate service links important to pharmaceutical manufacturing; develop a coherent regional policy agenda; remove unnecessary non-tariff barriers to trade in the region and, in line with development integration, implement trade policy along with trade infrastructure that is efficient and includes airports, rail, roads and ports, as well as effective access to the internet.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2018
- Authors: Faydherbe, Sean
- Date: 2018
- Subjects: Pharmaceutical industry -- Africa, Southern , Southern African Development Community , Africa, Southern -- Economic integration , Regional value chains (RVCs) , Global value chains (GVCs)
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/62906 , vital:28309
- Description: This thesis investigates how regional value chains (RVCs) can be used to further development integration in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) region with a focus on the pharmaceutical manufacturing industry. The study is motivated by the apparent lack of attention given to the development of the pharmaceutical manufacturing industry in Southern Africa, the region’s high disease burden and the identification of the industry as economically and socially important by the SADC (2015) Industrialisation Strategy and Roadmap and the Department of Trade and Industry (DTI) (2017a) Industrial Policy Action Plan (IPAP). At the same time, South Africa and other countries in the region are exploring alternative approaches to regional integration, given the failure or stagnation of numerous formal integration arrangements throughout Africa, which have often lead to polarised rather than balanced development. This thesis argues that the development of RVCs within SADC may be an effective tool for development integration in the region, particularly in sectors such as pharmaceuticals. The study employs a value chain framework for the analysis and discusses development integration options, drawing on the East Asian experience with RVCs and on case studies involving India in the case of the pharmaceutical industry. It provides a sector profile of the industry in South Africa, due to its dominant status in the region, and also of Zimbabwe, due to that country’s potential to become a pharmaceutical industry leader in the region once again. The thesis first explores the important theoretical aspects underlying value chain analysis, namely governance and upgrading, while also outlining the rise of global value chains (GVCs). It analyses the complex relationships between RVCs and GVCs, and RVCs and regional integration. From this it concludes that RVCs are a stepping stone to participation in GVCs and that RVCs should be promoted within a development integration framework through strong regional cooperation. Value chain analysis is applied to the entire pharmaceutical manufacturing industry with a focus on SADC. The thesis examines how the sector is evolving with manufacturing multinational corporations (MNCs) outsourcing production and setting up centres of excellence in regional production hubs. The study argues that with the application of recommended policies, RVCs in sectors such as pharmaceutical manufacturing may provide a tool for achieving balanced development in the region. However, the study also finds that the pharmaceutical industry in SADC lags a long way behind the rest of the world and that many countries and firms will need to begin at the bottom of the value chain, with formulation, in order to contribute to the development of RVCs. The thesis concludes with recommendations on what policies are needed to foster the growth and development of pharmaceutical RVCs in the SADC region. These include strengthening public procurement, providing incentives for investment into the industry, incremental production and incremental export volumes, as well as certainty and predictability around the regulatory and business environment. Further, policy should aim to construct synergies and linkages on the ground between health systems and industrial developments; regulate service links important to pharmaceutical manufacturing; develop a coherent regional policy agenda; remove unnecessary non-tariff barriers to trade in the region and, in line with development integration, implement trade policy along with trade infrastructure that is efficient and includes airports, rail, roads and ports, as well as effective access to the internet.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2018
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