The impact of South African monetary policy on output and price stability in Namibia
- William, Anna Martha Tandakos
- Authors: William, Anna Martha Tandakos
- Date: 2020
- Subjects: Common Monetary Area (Organization) , Monetary unions -- Africa, Southern , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Monetary policy -- Namibia , Repurchase agreements -- South Africa , Repurchase agreements -- Namibia , Inflation (Finance) -- South Africa , Inflation (Finance) -- Namibia , Namibia -- Economic conditions , Transmission mechanism (Monetary policy)
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/167709 , vital:41505
- Description: Namibia is a member country of the Common Monetary Area (CMA) with Lesotho, Swaziland and South Africa. South Africa is the anchor country to which the smaller member states have surrendered monetary policy authority. This thesis therefore examines the empirical relationship between the South Africa repo rate (SArepo) on the one hand and Namibia’s repo rate (Namrepo), Prime Lending Rate (PLR), Private Sector Credit Extension (PSCE), Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on the other hand. The credit channel of the monetary policy transmission mechanism informs the theoretical foundation of the thesis. Vector Autoregression modelling, variance decomposition and impulse response functions were used to explore the nature and strength of the relationship between the SArepo and said variables in Namibia. This thesis used quarterly data for the period 2003 to 2017. The variation in the Namrepo was predominantly explained by the SArepo, which confirmed that the Namrepo strongly followed the SArepo. The impulse response function results found that the impact of a contractionary monetary policy shock (an increase in the SArepo) lasted for up to six quarters before the effect started to fade. The Namrepo exhibited a positive response to an increase in the SArepo, although the magnitude of the response started to fade after the third quarter. The PLR, as a representative of market rates in Namibia, also exhibited a positive response to an increase in the SArepo. The results were similar for the Namrepo and the PLR because changes to the NamRepo are passed through immediately to the market interest rates. On the real variables, the study found that a contractionary monetary policy shock initiated in South Africa resulted in an increase in inflation in Namibia of less than 0.4 percent, whereas output declined by less than 1.0 percent. Interestingly, a Namibia (domestic) contractionary monetary policy shock resulted in a decline in prices of less than 0.4 percent. GDP, on the other hand, exhibited a positive response to a contractionary monetary shock, with an increase of less than 2.0 percent in the first four quarters of the period observed. The results reflected that a contractionary monetary policy shock from South Africa was more effective with regard to its impact on GDP; however, a domestic monetary policy shock was more effective at impacting on domestic inflation compared to the impact from South Africa.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2020
- Authors: William, Anna Martha Tandakos
- Date: 2020
- Subjects: Common Monetary Area (Organization) , Monetary unions -- Africa, Southern , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Monetary policy -- Namibia , Repurchase agreements -- South Africa , Repurchase agreements -- Namibia , Inflation (Finance) -- South Africa , Inflation (Finance) -- Namibia , Namibia -- Economic conditions , Transmission mechanism (Monetary policy)
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/167709 , vital:41505
- Description: Namibia is a member country of the Common Monetary Area (CMA) with Lesotho, Swaziland and South Africa. South Africa is the anchor country to which the smaller member states have surrendered monetary policy authority. This thesis therefore examines the empirical relationship between the South Africa repo rate (SArepo) on the one hand and Namibia’s repo rate (Namrepo), Prime Lending Rate (PLR), Private Sector Credit Extension (PSCE), Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on the other hand. The credit channel of the monetary policy transmission mechanism informs the theoretical foundation of the thesis. Vector Autoregression modelling, variance decomposition and impulse response functions were used to explore the nature and strength of the relationship between the SArepo and said variables in Namibia. This thesis used quarterly data for the period 2003 to 2017. The variation in the Namrepo was predominantly explained by the SArepo, which confirmed that the Namrepo strongly followed the SArepo. The impulse response function results found that the impact of a contractionary monetary policy shock (an increase in the SArepo) lasted for up to six quarters before the effect started to fade. The Namrepo exhibited a positive response to an increase in the SArepo, although the magnitude of the response started to fade after the third quarter. The PLR, as a representative of market rates in Namibia, also exhibited a positive response to an increase in the SArepo. The results were similar for the Namrepo and the PLR because changes to the NamRepo are passed through immediately to the market interest rates. On the real variables, the study found that a contractionary monetary policy shock initiated in South Africa resulted in an increase in inflation in Namibia of less than 0.4 percent, whereas output declined by less than 1.0 percent. Interestingly, a Namibia (domestic) contractionary monetary policy shock resulted in a decline in prices of less than 0.4 percent. GDP, on the other hand, exhibited a positive response to a contractionary monetary shock, with an increase of less than 2.0 percent in the first four quarters of the period observed. The results reflected that a contractionary monetary policy shock from South Africa was more effective with regard to its impact on GDP; however, a domestic monetary policy shock was more effective at impacting on domestic inflation compared to the impact from South Africa.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2020
Macroeconomic convergence within SADC : implications for the formation of a regional monetary union
- Authors: Johns, Michael Ryan
- Date: 2009
- Subjects: Southern African Development Community , Economic and Monetary Union , Common Monetary Area (Organization) , Economic policy -- Africa, Southern , Monetary policy -- Africa, Southern , Monetary unions , Macroeconomics
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1023 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002758 , Southern African Development Community , Economic and Monetary Union , Common Monetary Area (Organization) , Economic policy -- Africa, Southern , Monetary policy -- Africa, Southern , Monetary unions , Macroeconomics
- Description: Given the growing effect that globalisation and integration has had upon economies and regions, the process of monetary union has become an increasingly topical issue in economic policy debates. This has been driven in part by the experience and successes of the European Monetary Union (EMU), which is widely perceived as beneficial to member countries. The Southern African Development Community (SADC) is an example of a group of countries that has realised that there are benefits that may arise from economic integration. This paper makes use of an interest-rate pass through model to investigate whether the pass-through of monetary policy transmission in ten SADC countries has become more similar between January 1990 and December 2007 using monthly interest rate data. This is done to determine the extent of macroeconomic convergence that prevails within SADC, and consequently establish whether the formation of a regional monetary union is feasible. The results of the empirical pass-through model were robust and show that there are certain countries that have a more efficient and similar monetary transmission process than others. In particular, the countries that form the Common Monetary Area (CMA) and the Southern African Customs Union (SACU) tend to show evidence of convergence in monetary policy transmission, especially since 2000. In addition, from analysis of the long-run pass-through, the results reveal that there is evidence that Malawi and Zambia have shown signs of convergence toward the countries that form the CMA and SACU, in terms of monetary policy transmission. The study concludes that a SADC wide monetary union is currently not feasible based on the evidence provided from the results of the pass-through analysis. Despite this, it can be tentatively suggested that the CMA may be expanded to include Botswana, Malawi and Zambia.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2009
- Authors: Johns, Michael Ryan
- Date: 2009
- Subjects: Southern African Development Community , Economic and Monetary Union , Common Monetary Area (Organization) , Economic policy -- Africa, Southern , Monetary policy -- Africa, Southern , Monetary unions , Macroeconomics
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1023 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002758 , Southern African Development Community , Economic and Monetary Union , Common Monetary Area (Organization) , Economic policy -- Africa, Southern , Monetary policy -- Africa, Southern , Monetary unions , Macroeconomics
- Description: Given the growing effect that globalisation and integration has had upon economies and regions, the process of monetary union has become an increasingly topical issue in economic policy debates. This has been driven in part by the experience and successes of the European Monetary Union (EMU), which is widely perceived as beneficial to member countries. The Southern African Development Community (SADC) is an example of a group of countries that has realised that there are benefits that may arise from economic integration. This paper makes use of an interest-rate pass through model to investigate whether the pass-through of monetary policy transmission in ten SADC countries has become more similar between January 1990 and December 2007 using monthly interest rate data. This is done to determine the extent of macroeconomic convergence that prevails within SADC, and consequently establish whether the formation of a regional monetary union is feasible. The results of the empirical pass-through model were robust and show that there are certain countries that have a more efficient and similar monetary transmission process than others. In particular, the countries that form the Common Monetary Area (CMA) and the Southern African Customs Union (SACU) tend to show evidence of convergence in monetary policy transmission, especially since 2000. In addition, from analysis of the long-run pass-through, the results reveal that there is evidence that Malawi and Zambia have shown signs of convergence toward the countries that form the CMA and SACU, in terms of monetary policy transmission. The study concludes that a SADC wide monetary union is currently not feasible based on the evidence provided from the results of the pass-through analysis. Despite this, it can be tentatively suggested that the CMA may be expanded to include Botswana, Malawi and Zambia.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2009
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