Capital mobility and economic growth in South Africa
- Authors: Dhlamini, Nonceba Michelle
- Date: 2024-04-03
- Subjects: Capital movements South Africa , Economic development South Africa , Autoregression (Statistics) , Econometric models , Financial crises
- Language: English
- Type: Academic theses , Master's theses , text
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/434712 , vital:73098
- Description: The South African current account balance has been deteriorating over the years. An investigation of the correlation between capital mobility and economic growth is of interest as South Africa is heavily reliant on capital inflows to finance the current account deficit. This research topic is of importance as there is need to devise policies that maximise the benefits the nation derives from capital mobility. The benefits that capital flows provide economies, theoretically outweigh the disadvantages, provided that capital flows are absorbed productively. The topic is also of interest in the light of the magnitude of shocks to the South African economy such as the rand crisis, dotcom bubble, stock market bubble, inflation targeting, commodity super cycle, global financial crisis, the Covid-19 pandemic and Russo-Ukrainian War, as these shocks have translated to slower economic growth and higher levels of inflation. These shocks have equally revealed that countries need to have sound macroeconomic policies in order to survive the impact of any crises. The vision 2030 secretariat has identified capital markets as the key providers of capital required for achieving social economic blueprint. The empirical evidence locally is limited in comparison to the empirical evidence from outside of South Africa. This topic is of importance as South African studies on this topic are not as recent and this study aims to bridge that gap. Data were obtained from the South African Reserve Bank Quarterly Bulletin and the World Bank database for the period 1990 to 2022. The Autoregressive Distribution Lag model was employed in order to determine the relationship. This study relied on the supply-leading theory which posits capital markets may positively or negatively affect key indicators of economic growth. The study found that there is a positive long run relationship between net capital flows, saving-investment ratio and economic growth and a negative long run relationship between the degree of trade openness and economic growth. The findings will allow opportunity to address capital flow surges and in turn boost investor confidence. Capital flow management measures can help manage destabilizing exchange rate movements and capital flows coupled with macroprudential tools helping reduce the domestic buildup of vulnerabilities. , Thesis (MCom) -- Faculty of Commerce, Economics and Economic History, 2024
- Full Text:
- Authors: Dhlamini, Nonceba Michelle
- Date: 2024-04-03
- Subjects: Capital movements South Africa , Economic development South Africa , Autoregression (Statistics) , Econometric models , Financial crises
- Language: English
- Type: Academic theses , Master's theses , text
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/434712 , vital:73098
- Description: The South African current account balance has been deteriorating over the years. An investigation of the correlation between capital mobility and economic growth is of interest as South Africa is heavily reliant on capital inflows to finance the current account deficit. This research topic is of importance as there is need to devise policies that maximise the benefits the nation derives from capital mobility. The benefits that capital flows provide economies, theoretically outweigh the disadvantages, provided that capital flows are absorbed productively. The topic is also of interest in the light of the magnitude of shocks to the South African economy such as the rand crisis, dotcom bubble, stock market bubble, inflation targeting, commodity super cycle, global financial crisis, the Covid-19 pandemic and Russo-Ukrainian War, as these shocks have translated to slower economic growth and higher levels of inflation. These shocks have equally revealed that countries need to have sound macroeconomic policies in order to survive the impact of any crises. The vision 2030 secretariat has identified capital markets as the key providers of capital required for achieving social economic blueprint. The empirical evidence locally is limited in comparison to the empirical evidence from outside of South Africa. This topic is of importance as South African studies on this topic are not as recent and this study aims to bridge that gap. Data were obtained from the South African Reserve Bank Quarterly Bulletin and the World Bank database for the period 1990 to 2022. The Autoregressive Distribution Lag model was employed in order to determine the relationship. This study relied on the supply-leading theory which posits capital markets may positively or negatively affect key indicators of economic growth. The study found that there is a positive long run relationship between net capital flows, saving-investment ratio and economic growth and a negative long run relationship between the degree of trade openness and economic growth. The findings will allow opportunity to address capital flow surges and in turn boost investor confidence. Capital flow management measures can help manage destabilizing exchange rate movements and capital flows coupled with macroprudential tools helping reduce the domestic buildup of vulnerabilities. , Thesis (MCom) -- Faculty of Commerce, Economics and Economic History, 2024
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Volatility spillovers and determinants of contagion: a case of BRICS equity and foreign exchange markets
- Authors: Nyopa, Tšepiso
- Date: 2020
- Subjects: Volatility , BRIC countries , Financial crises , Regression analysis
- Language: English
- Type: thesis , text , Masters , MCOM
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/164590 , vital:41146
- Description: This study investigates the relationship between the equity markets and foreign exchange markets in Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS) using Diebold-Yilmaz spillover index. The study also identifies macroeconomic fundamentals that can enhance contagion in these markets using panel dynamic ordinary least squares regressions. The study spans the period from 1997 to 2018. We find that there are interdependencies between BRICS equity markets and foreign exchange markets, except for China, whose markets are relatively isolated from other BRICS markets. Brazil is the largest contributor of volatility spillovers to other BRICS markets. The spillover indexes also indicate significant increases in volatility spillovers associated with turmoil periods in domestic and global markets. This provides evidence for contagion during crises periods. We also find that fundamental indicators and trade linkages are major drivers of increased volatility spillovers (contagion) in BRICS; and global risk indicators, such as VIX and oil prices, explain volatility spillovers in BRICS. These results hold across both equities and foreign exchange markets. , Thesis (MSc)--Rhodes University, Faculty of Commerce, Economics and Economic History, 2020
- Full Text:
- Authors: Nyopa, Tšepiso
- Date: 2020
- Subjects: Volatility , BRIC countries , Financial crises , Regression analysis
- Language: English
- Type: thesis , text , Masters , MCOM
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/164590 , vital:41146
- Description: This study investigates the relationship between the equity markets and foreign exchange markets in Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS) using Diebold-Yilmaz spillover index. The study also identifies macroeconomic fundamentals that can enhance contagion in these markets using panel dynamic ordinary least squares regressions. The study spans the period from 1997 to 2018. We find that there are interdependencies between BRICS equity markets and foreign exchange markets, except for China, whose markets are relatively isolated from other BRICS markets. Brazil is the largest contributor of volatility spillovers to other BRICS markets. The spillover indexes also indicate significant increases in volatility spillovers associated with turmoil periods in domestic and global markets. This provides evidence for contagion during crises periods. We also find that fundamental indicators and trade linkages are major drivers of increased volatility spillovers (contagion) in BRICS; and global risk indicators, such as VIX and oil prices, explain volatility spillovers in BRICS. These results hold across both equities and foreign exchange markets. , Thesis (MSc)--Rhodes University, Faculty of Commerce, Economics and Economic History, 2020
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