Forecasting solar cycle 24 using neural networks
- Authors: Uwamahoro, Jean
- Date: 2009
- Subjects: Solar cycle , Neural networks (Computer science) , Ionosphere , Ionospheric electron density , Ionospheric forecasting , Solar thermal energy
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MSc
- Identifier: vital:5468 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1005253 , Solar cycle , Neural networks (Computer science) , Ionosphere , Ionospheric electron density , Ionospheric forecasting , Solar thermal energy
- Description: The ability to predict the future behavior of solar activity has become of extreme importance due to its effect on the near-Earth environment. Predictions of both the amplitude and timing of the next solar cycle will assist in estimating the various consequences of Space Weather. Several prediction techniques have been applied and have achieved varying degrees of success in the domain of solar activity prediction. These techniques include, for example, neural networks and geomagnetic precursor methods. In this thesis, various neural network based models were developed and the model considered to be optimum was used to estimate the shape and timing of solar cycle 24. Given the recent success of the geomagnetic precusrsor methods, geomagnetic activity as measured by the aa index is considered among the main inputs to the neural network model. The neural network model developed is also provided with the time input parameters defining the year and the month of a particular solar cycle, in order to characterise the temporal behaviour of sunspot number as observed during the last 10 solar cycles. The structure of input-output patterns to the neural network is constructed in such a way that the network learns the relationship between the aa index values of a particular cycle, and the sunspot number values of the following cycle. Assuming January 2008 as the minimum preceding solar cycle 24, the shape and amplitude of solar cycle 24 is estimated in terms of monthly mean and smoothed monthly sunspot number. This new prediction model estimates an average solar cycle 24, with the maximum occurring around June 2012 [± 11 months], with a smoothed monthly maximum sunspot number of 121 ± 9.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2009
- Authors: Uwamahoro, Jean
- Date: 2009
- Subjects: Solar cycle , Neural networks (Computer science) , Ionosphere , Ionospheric electron density , Ionospheric forecasting , Solar thermal energy
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MSc
- Identifier: vital:5468 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1005253 , Solar cycle , Neural networks (Computer science) , Ionosphere , Ionospheric electron density , Ionospheric forecasting , Solar thermal energy
- Description: The ability to predict the future behavior of solar activity has become of extreme importance due to its effect on the near-Earth environment. Predictions of both the amplitude and timing of the next solar cycle will assist in estimating the various consequences of Space Weather. Several prediction techniques have been applied and have achieved varying degrees of success in the domain of solar activity prediction. These techniques include, for example, neural networks and geomagnetic precursor methods. In this thesis, various neural network based models were developed and the model considered to be optimum was used to estimate the shape and timing of solar cycle 24. Given the recent success of the geomagnetic precusrsor methods, geomagnetic activity as measured by the aa index is considered among the main inputs to the neural network model. The neural network model developed is also provided with the time input parameters defining the year and the month of a particular solar cycle, in order to characterise the temporal behaviour of sunspot number as observed during the last 10 solar cycles. The structure of input-output patterns to the neural network is constructed in such a way that the network learns the relationship between the aa index values of a particular cycle, and the sunspot number values of the following cycle. Assuming January 2008 as the minimum preceding solar cycle 24, the shape and amplitude of solar cycle 24 is estimated in terms of monthly mean and smoothed monthly sunspot number. This new prediction model estimates an average solar cycle 24, with the maximum occurring around June 2012 [± 11 months], with a smoothed monthly maximum sunspot number of 121 ± 9.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2009
A feasibility study into total electron content prediction using neural networks
- Authors: Habarulema, John Bosco
- Date: 2008
- Subjects: Electrons , Neural networks (Computer science) , Global Positioning System , Ionosphere , Ionospheric electron density
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MSc
- Identifier: vital:5466 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1005251 , Electrons , Neural networks (Computer science) , Global Positioning System , Ionosphere , Ionospheric electron density
- Description: Global Positioning System (GPS) networks provide an opportunity to study the dynamics and continuous changes in the ionosphere by supplementing ionospheric measurements which are usually obtained by various techniques such as ionosondes, incoherent scatter radars and satellites. Total electron content (TEC) is one of the physical quantities that can be derived from GPS data, and provides an indication of ionospheric variability. This thesis presents a feasibility study for the development of a Neural Network (NN) based model for the prediction of South African GPS derived TEC. The South African GPS receiver network is operated and maintained by the Chief Directorate Surveys and Mapping (CDSM) in Cape Town, South Africa. Three South African locations were identified and used in the development of an input space and NN architecture for the model. The input space includes the day number (seasonal variation), hour (diurnal variation), sunspot number (measure of the solar activity), and magnetic index(measure of the magnetic activity). An attempt to study the effects of solar wind on TEC variability was carried out using the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) data and it is recommended that more study be done using low altitude satellite data. An analysis was done by comparing predicted NN TEC with TEC values from the IRI2001 version of the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI), validating GPS TEC with ionosonde TEC (ITEC) and assessing the performance of the NN model during equinoxes and solstices. Results show that NNs predict GPS TEC more accurately than the IRI at South African GPS locations, but that more good quality GPS data is required before a truly representative empirical GPS TEC model can be released.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2008
- Authors: Habarulema, John Bosco
- Date: 2008
- Subjects: Electrons , Neural networks (Computer science) , Global Positioning System , Ionosphere , Ionospheric electron density
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MSc
- Identifier: vital:5466 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1005251 , Electrons , Neural networks (Computer science) , Global Positioning System , Ionosphere , Ionospheric electron density
- Description: Global Positioning System (GPS) networks provide an opportunity to study the dynamics and continuous changes in the ionosphere by supplementing ionospheric measurements which are usually obtained by various techniques such as ionosondes, incoherent scatter radars and satellites. Total electron content (TEC) is one of the physical quantities that can be derived from GPS data, and provides an indication of ionospheric variability. This thesis presents a feasibility study for the development of a Neural Network (NN) based model for the prediction of South African GPS derived TEC. The South African GPS receiver network is operated and maintained by the Chief Directorate Surveys and Mapping (CDSM) in Cape Town, South Africa. Three South African locations were identified and used in the development of an input space and NN architecture for the model. The input space includes the day number (seasonal variation), hour (diurnal variation), sunspot number (measure of the solar activity), and magnetic index(measure of the magnetic activity). An attempt to study the effects of solar wind on TEC variability was carried out using the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) data and it is recommended that more study be done using low altitude satellite data. An analysis was done by comparing predicted NN TEC with TEC values from the IRI2001 version of the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI), validating GPS TEC with ionosonde TEC (ITEC) and assessing the performance of the NN model during equinoxes and solstices. Results show that NNs predict GPS TEC more accurately than the IRI at South African GPS locations, but that more good quality GPS data is required before a truly representative empirical GPS TEC model can be released.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2008
Effects of precipitating electrons in the ionosphere
- Authors: Haschick, Aubrey D
- Date: 1974
- Subjects: Electrons , Electron precipitation , Ionosphere , Ionospheric electron density
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MSc
- Identifier: vital:5526 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1012220
- Description: As early as 1896, around the time of the discovery of the electron by J.J. Thompson, Birkeland was led to propose that aurorae were caused by fast moving electrons or similarly charged particles emitted by the sun and 'sucked in towards' the auroral zones by the geomagnetic field. He later supported this idea by firing electrons at a dipole field surrounding a sphere covered with a fluorescent coating. Extensive ground based observations of auroral features eventually led, in 1950, to the initial direct evidence of the fact that auroral emissions are due to energetic charged particles, consisting partly of protons, entering the earth's atmosphere (Meinel, 1951). However, it was only in 1952 and 1953 that the first measurements of what was later interpreted as bremsstrahlung X- rays from precipitating electrons were made at auroral latitudes. (Meredith et aI, 1955) During the IGY, 1957 - 1958, a number of rockets were fired through and near, visible aurorae and large fluxes of low energy electrons were detected ... Intro., p. 1.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 1974
- Authors: Haschick, Aubrey D
- Date: 1974
- Subjects: Electrons , Electron precipitation , Ionosphere , Ionospheric electron density
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MSc
- Identifier: vital:5526 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1012220
- Description: As early as 1896, around the time of the discovery of the electron by J.J. Thompson, Birkeland was led to propose that aurorae were caused by fast moving electrons or similarly charged particles emitted by the sun and 'sucked in towards' the auroral zones by the geomagnetic field. He later supported this idea by firing electrons at a dipole field surrounding a sphere covered with a fluorescent coating. Extensive ground based observations of auroral features eventually led, in 1950, to the initial direct evidence of the fact that auroral emissions are due to energetic charged particles, consisting partly of protons, entering the earth's atmosphere (Meinel, 1951). However, it was only in 1952 and 1953 that the first measurements of what was later interpreted as bremsstrahlung X- rays from precipitating electrons were made at auroral latitudes. (Meredith et aI, 1955) During the IGY, 1957 - 1958, a number of rockets were fired through and near, visible aurorae and large fluxes of low energy electrons were detected ... Intro., p. 1.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 1974
Electron precipitation and ionospheric disturbance
- Authors: Torr, Marsha R
- Date: 1966
- Subjects: Electrons , Electron precipitation , Ionosphere , Ionospheric electron density
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MSc
- Identifier: vital:5509 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1007691
- Description: From Introduction: The minimum in the scalar magnitude of the geographic total field, which lies off the coast of Brazil, allows the mirror points of trapped particles to dip low into the atmosphere over the South Atlantic Ocean, resulting in two regions of maximum intensity of preciptated particles in that region, one from the inner belt and one from the outer. High charged particle fluxes have been observed at low altitudes over these regions by satellites Sputnik 5 and 6 (Ginsburg et al, 1961) and Discoverer 31 (Seward and Kornblum, 1963) amongst others. The more southerly of these two regions acts as a sink for electrons from the outer radiation belt and will be referred to in what follows as the Southern Radiation Anomaly. Gladhill and van Rooyen (1963) predicted that the energy deposited in the upper atmosphere by these charged particles would be sufficient to give rise to enhanced geophysical effects such as auroral emission, X-rays and ionization and heating of the upper atmosphere in this region. Although some of these effects have been correlated with precipitated electrons, no definite relation had until now been established between ionospheric effects and precipitated particles. The aim of this thesis was to investigate such a relationship and the results were extremely successful. It will be shown conclusively in what follows, that the precipitation of electrons can account for the ionospheric disturbances defined by a disturbance criterion at all stations around L=4. Part I describes the exploration of the radiation belts and the magnetosphere with rockets and satellites. The resulting theoretical models based on the observations are discussed. A brief review is given of the work that has been done to date to derive equations for the loss and replenishment of particles in the belts. Because of the complexity of these and the number of doubtful factors involved, a simple model of injection of electrons into the outer belt is devised, giving average values of trapped and precipitated electron fluxes at any point around L=4. In Part II, this model is employed together with the disturbance criterion of Gledhill and Torr (1965) to examine the relationship between ionospheric disturbances and electron fluxes. Also the energy range of the precipitated particles is examined.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 1966
- Authors: Torr, Marsha R
- Date: 1966
- Subjects: Electrons , Electron precipitation , Ionosphere , Ionospheric electron density
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MSc
- Identifier: vital:5509 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1007691
- Description: From Introduction: The minimum in the scalar magnitude of the geographic total field, which lies off the coast of Brazil, allows the mirror points of trapped particles to dip low into the atmosphere over the South Atlantic Ocean, resulting in two regions of maximum intensity of preciptated particles in that region, one from the inner belt and one from the outer. High charged particle fluxes have been observed at low altitudes over these regions by satellites Sputnik 5 and 6 (Ginsburg et al, 1961) and Discoverer 31 (Seward and Kornblum, 1963) amongst others. The more southerly of these two regions acts as a sink for electrons from the outer radiation belt and will be referred to in what follows as the Southern Radiation Anomaly. Gladhill and van Rooyen (1963) predicted that the energy deposited in the upper atmosphere by these charged particles would be sufficient to give rise to enhanced geophysical effects such as auroral emission, X-rays and ionization and heating of the upper atmosphere in this region. Although some of these effects have been correlated with precipitated electrons, no definite relation had until now been established between ionospheric effects and precipitated particles. The aim of this thesis was to investigate such a relationship and the results were extremely successful. It will be shown conclusively in what follows, that the precipitation of electrons can account for the ionospheric disturbances defined by a disturbance criterion at all stations around L=4. Part I describes the exploration of the radiation belts and the magnetosphere with rockets and satellites. The resulting theoretical models based on the observations are discussed. A brief review is given of the work that has been done to date to derive equations for the loss and replenishment of particles in the belts. Because of the complexity of these and the number of doubtful factors involved, a simple model of injection of electrons into the outer belt is devised, giving average values of trapped and precipitated electron fluxes at any point around L=4. In Part II, this model is employed together with the disturbance criterion of Gledhill and Torr (1965) to examine the relationship between ionospheric disturbances and electron fluxes. Also the energy range of the precipitated particles is examined.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 1966
Some properties of a model F1 layer of the ionosphere
- Authors: De Jager, Gerhard
- Date: 1963
- Subjects: Ionosphere , Ionospheric electron density
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MSc
- Identifier: vital:5515 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1011046 , Ionosphere , Ionospheric electron density
- Description: The present work was initially aimed at providing an explanation for some of the phenomena that occur in the ionosphere at sunrise. The approach that was taken was to determine the changes that take place on a theoretical model of the ionosphere and then to compare these with observations. A prerequisite for this approach was a theoretical model that would show, among other things, a bifurcation of the F layer during daytime without making unjustified arbitrary assumptions. The absence of such a model, particularly as far as non-equilibrium conditions are concerned, resulted in the present attempt to provide such a model for the F1 region.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 1963
- Authors: De Jager, Gerhard
- Date: 1963
- Subjects: Ionosphere , Ionospheric electron density
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MSc
- Identifier: vital:5515 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1011046 , Ionosphere , Ionospheric electron density
- Description: The present work was initially aimed at providing an explanation for some of the phenomena that occur in the ionosphere at sunrise. The approach that was taken was to determine the changes that take place on a theoretical model of the ionosphere and then to compare these with observations. A prerequisite for this approach was a theoretical model that would show, among other things, a bifurcation of the F layer during daytime without making unjustified arbitrary assumptions. The absence of such a model, particularly as far as non-equilibrium conditions are concerned, resulted in the present attempt to provide such a model for the F1 region.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 1963
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