Analysis of the relationship between changes in macroeconomic variables and various sector price indices of JSE
- Mapanda, Tungamirai Chisvuvo
- Authors: Mapanda, Tungamirai Chisvuvo
- Date: 2020
- Subjects: Johannesburg Stock Exchange , Stock price indexes -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/147445 , vital:38637
- Description: Purpose- The purpose of this paper is to analyse the relationship between changes in domestic macroeconomic variables and various indices of the JSE during the full time period, June 1995 to December 2018 and the sub-periods, June 1995 to June 2007 and July 2007 to December 2018. Design/ methodology/ approach- The paper employs the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model approach to cointegration using monthly data from June 1995 to December 2018. Findings- In terms of the long run, the results show that the coincident indicator measure of domestic economic activity is positively and significantly related to the various JSE indices for all study periods. In terms of inflation, the results show no relationship between inflation rate and the various indices for both whole period and June 1995 to June 2007 sub period. However for the July 2007 to December 2018 sub period, JSE All Share Index and JSE Top 40 Index are negatively related. For the real effective exchange rate, only the Consumer Services Index is positively related to the exchange rate in terms of June 1995 to June 2007 sub period. However, JSE All Share Index and JSE Top 40 Index are negatively related to the exchange rate in all study periods. In terms of the short term interest rate, for the whole period, JSE All Share Index, JSE Top 40 Index, Health Care Index and Telecommunications Index are negatively related to interest rate. In terms of the June 1995 to June 2007 sub period, JSE All Share Index and Industrials Index are negatively related to the short term interest rate. For the July 2007 to December 2018 sub period, Telecommunications Index and Technology Index are negatively related. In terms of the short run, the coincident indicator is positively and significantly related to the various JSE indices for all study periods. Inflation is not significantly related to any index in the whole period. In terms of the June 1995 to June 2007 sub period, Industrials Index and Financials Index are positively related to inflation and in the July 2007 to December 2018 sub period, Consumer Goods Index, Health Index and Consumer Services Index are negatively related to the inflation rate. The real effective exchange rate is positively and significantly related to the various JSE indices in the different study periods. In terms of the short term interest rate, for the whole period and the June 1995 to June 2007 sub period only the Technology Index is not significantly and negatively related to the short term interest rate, but for the July 2007 to December 2018 sub period, Top 40 Index, Telecommunications Index and Technology Index are positively related to the interest rate. Only the Financial Index is negatively related to short term interest rates during this sub period. Research Limitations- Not a lot literature was found on the relationship between macroeconomic variables and the various sector indices of the JSE. Most previous work, in the South African context focused just on the JSE All Share Index. Practical Implications- The findings can help investors diversify their portfolios into indices that benefit from expected changes in macroeconomic variables, such as recessions, rising interest rates, rising inflation or a weakening exchange rate. Alternatively, they can hedge themselves against the negative implications of such macroeconomic changes on portfolio performance. In addition, the findings are important for the monetary authorities to better understand the implications of their policy changes on financial markets.
- Full Text:
- Authors: Mapanda, Tungamirai Chisvuvo
- Date: 2020
- Subjects: Johannesburg Stock Exchange , Stock price indexes -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/147445 , vital:38637
- Description: Purpose- The purpose of this paper is to analyse the relationship between changes in domestic macroeconomic variables and various indices of the JSE during the full time period, June 1995 to December 2018 and the sub-periods, June 1995 to June 2007 and July 2007 to December 2018. Design/ methodology/ approach- The paper employs the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model approach to cointegration using monthly data from June 1995 to December 2018. Findings- In terms of the long run, the results show that the coincident indicator measure of domestic economic activity is positively and significantly related to the various JSE indices for all study periods. In terms of inflation, the results show no relationship between inflation rate and the various indices for both whole period and June 1995 to June 2007 sub period. However for the July 2007 to December 2018 sub period, JSE All Share Index and JSE Top 40 Index are negatively related. For the real effective exchange rate, only the Consumer Services Index is positively related to the exchange rate in terms of June 1995 to June 2007 sub period. However, JSE All Share Index and JSE Top 40 Index are negatively related to the exchange rate in all study periods. In terms of the short term interest rate, for the whole period, JSE All Share Index, JSE Top 40 Index, Health Care Index and Telecommunications Index are negatively related to interest rate. In terms of the June 1995 to June 2007 sub period, JSE All Share Index and Industrials Index are negatively related to the short term interest rate. For the July 2007 to December 2018 sub period, Telecommunications Index and Technology Index are negatively related. In terms of the short run, the coincident indicator is positively and significantly related to the various JSE indices for all study periods. Inflation is not significantly related to any index in the whole period. In terms of the June 1995 to June 2007 sub period, Industrials Index and Financials Index are positively related to inflation and in the July 2007 to December 2018 sub period, Consumer Goods Index, Health Index and Consumer Services Index are negatively related to the inflation rate. The real effective exchange rate is positively and significantly related to the various JSE indices in the different study periods. In terms of the short term interest rate, for the whole period and the June 1995 to June 2007 sub period only the Technology Index is not significantly and negatively related to the short term interest rate, but for the July 2007 to December 2018 sub period, Top 40 Index, Telecommunications Index and Technology Index are positively related to the interest rate. Only the Financial Index is negatively related to short term interest rates during this sub period. Research Limitations- Not a lot literature was found on the relationship between macroeconomic variables and the various sector indices of the JSE. Most previous work, in the South African context focused just on the JSE All Share Index. Practical Implications- The findings can help investors diversify their portfolios into indices that benefit from expected changes in macroeconomic variables, such as recessions, rising interest rates, rising inflation or a weakening exchange rate. Alternatively, they can hedge themselves against the negative implications of such macroeconomic changes on portfolio performance. In addition, the findings are important for the monetary authorities to better understand the implications of their policy changes on financial markets.
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Market timing and portfolio returns: an empirical analysis of the potential profitability of buy-sell strategies, based on South African equities 2009-2018
- Authors: Mulweli, Ramulongo
- Date: 2020
- Subjects: Johannesburg Stock Exchange , Stocks -- Charts, diagrams, etc. , Investment analysis -- South Africa , Stocks -- South Africa , Stocks -- South Africa -- Cast studies
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/144487 , vital:38350
- Description: South Africa’s financial markets have become larger and more complex over recent decades. The number of market participants who are using technical analysis techniques to predict the market’s movement has been growing rapidly. This research aims to investigate if historical share prices can be used when forecasting the market’s direction and to examine the profitability of the Japanese candlestick patterns. The study is based on ten companies selected from the JSE top 40 2019 composition. These are Aspen Pharmacy Holding, Capitec Bank Holding LTD, Discovery LTD, Kumba Iron Ore LTD, Mondi PLC, Mr. Price Group LTD, MTN Group LTD, Naspers LTD, SASOL LTD, and Shoprite Holdings LTD. These were selected from the JSE top 40 based on market capitalization and sector. This research analyzes eight candlestick reversal patterns; four are bullish patterns namely: doji star, hammer, bullish engulfing and the piercing lines and the other four are bearish patterns namely: shooting star, hanging man, bearish engulfing and the dark cloud cover. The ARCH and GARCH models are used to test for correlation between past share prices and future share prices and the binomial test and the mean return calculations were used to test the profitability of candlestick patterns. The sample is from Thomson DataStream 2019 and IRESS SA 2019 and covers ten years with 2496 observations starting from 02 January 2009 to 31 December 2018. The findings from the ARCH and GARCH tests revealed that there is a serial correlation between the returns from the previous day and the returns for the current day. The results from the mean returns and the binomial tests show strong evidence that the shooting star, hanging man, bearish engulfing and the bulling engulfing are statistically significant in predicting the share price movements. On the other hand, there was no evidence that the dark cloud cover, piercing lines, and the bullish doji can predict share price movements. Additionally, further studies on this topic could be improved by adding different candlestick patterns and the total number of companies analyzed. The results could also be improved by analyzing the candlestick reversal patterns when they are used with other trading rules such as support resistance levels and oscillators.
- Full Text:
- Authors: Mulweli, Ramulongo
- Date: 2020
- Subjects: Johannesburg Stock Exchange , Stocks -- Charts, diagrams, etc. , Investment analysis -- South Africa , Stocks -- South Africa , Stocks -- South Africa -- Cast studies
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/144487 , vital:38350
- Description: South Africa’s financial markets have become larger and more complex over recent decades. The number of market participants who are using technical analysis techniques to predict the market’s movement has been growing rapidly. This research aims to investigate if historical share prices can be used when forecasting the market’s direction and to examine the profitability of the Japanese candlestick patterns. The study is based on ten companies selected from the JSE top 40 2019 composition. These are Aspen Pharmacy Holding, Capitec Bank Holding LTD, Discovery LTD, Kumba Iron Ore LTD, Mondi PLC, Mr. Price Group LTD, MTN Group LTD, Naspers LTD, SASOL LTD, and Shoprite Holdings LTD. These were selected from the JSE top 40 based on market capitalization and sector. This research analyzes eight candlestick reversal patterns; four are bullish patterns namely: doji star, hammer, bullish engulfing and the piercing lines and the other four are bearish patterns namely: shooting star, hanging man, bearish engulfing and the dark cloud cover. The ARCH and GARCH models are used to test for correlation between past share prices and future share prices and the binomial test and the mean return calculations were used to test the profitability of candlestick patterns. The sample is from Thomson DataStream 2019 and IRESS SA 2019 and covers ten years with 2496 observations starting from 02 January 2009 to 31 December 2018. The findings from the ARCH and GARCH tests revealed that there is a serial correlation between the returns from the previous day and the returns for the current day. The results from the mean returns and the binomial tests show strong evidence that the shooting star, hanging man, bearish engulfing and the bulling engulfing are statistically significant in predicting the share price movements. On the other hand, there was no evidence that the dark cloud cover, piercing lines, and the bullish doji can predict share price movements. Additionally, further studies on this topic could be improved by adding different candlestick patterns and the total number of companies analyzed. The results could also be improved by analyzing the candlestick reversal patterns when they are used with other trading rules such as support resistance levels and oscillators.
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The predictive ability of the yield spread in timing the stock exchange: a South African case
- Authors: Cook, Jenna
- Date: 2020
- Subjects: Stocks -- Mathematical models , Probits , Johannesburg Stock Exchange
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/147025 , vital:38586
- Description: The use of the yield curve in forecasting economic recessions is well established in the literature. A new avenue of use for the yield curve has emerged in the form of using it to forecast bull and bear stock markets. This has the potential to change how investors manage portfolios. A dynamic market-timing strategy would allow investors to shift out of or in to stock markets based on the probability of bear stock market in the future. The relationship between the yield curve and the stock market is tested using an adapted probit model. This has proven positive with encouraging results for the US, India and Spain. This is tested for South Africa using the adapted probit model and the SA yield spread. Bear stock markets are identified on the JSE and forms part of the probit modelling process. Bear markets are identified using a six- and four-month criteria. As South Africa is a small, open and developing economy, the probit is also modelled using the US yield spread. The three probit models do not appear to track bear markets well. This is substantiated through the Henriksson-Merton parametric model test which tests for market timing ability. The results for the SA yield spread using both bear market criteria do not show market timing ability, however, the SA and US yield spread model does show potential market timing ability.
- Full Text:
- Authors: Cook, Jenna
- Date: 2020
- Subjects: Stocks -- Mathematical models , Probits , Johannesburg Stock Exchange
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/147025 , vital:38586
- Description: The use of the yield curve in forecasting economic recessions is well established in the literature. A new avenue of use for the yield curve has emerged in the form of using it to forecast bull and bear stock markets. This has the potential to change how investors manage portfolios. A dynamic market-timing strategy would allow investors to shift out of or in to stock markets based on the probability of bear stock market in the future. The relationship between the yield curve and the stock market is tested using an adapted probit model. This has proven positive with encouraging results for the US, India and Spain. This is tested for South Africa using the adapted probit model and the SA yield spread. Bear stock markets are identified on the JSE and forms part of the probit modelling process. Bear markets are identified using a six- and four-month criteria. As South Africa is a small, open and developing economy, the probit is also modelled using the US yield spread. The three probit models do not appear to track bear markets well. This is substantiated through the Henriksson-Merton parametric model test which tests for market timing ability. The results for the SA yield spread using both bear market criteria do not show market timing ability, however, the SA and US yield spread model does show potential market timing ability.
- Full Text:
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