Analysis of the relationship between changes in macroeconomic variables and various sector price indices of JSE
- Mapanda, Tungamirai Chisvuvo
- Authors: Mapanda, Tungamirai Chisvuvo
- Date: 2020
- Subjects: Johannesburg Stock Exchange , Stock price indexes -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/147445 , vital:38637
- Description: Purpose- The purpose of this paper is to analyse the relationship between changes in domestic macroeconomic variables and various indices of the JSE during the full time period, June 1995 to December 2018 and the sub-periods, June 1995 to June 2007 and July 2007 to December 2018. Design/ methodology/ approach- The paper employs the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model approach to cointegration using monthly data from June 1995 to December 2018. Findings- In terms of the long run, the results show that the coincident indicator measure of domestic economic activity is positively and significantly related to the various JSE indices for all study periods. In terms of inflation, the results show no relationship between inflation rate and the various indices for both whole period and June 1995 to June 2007 sub period. However for the July 2007 to December 2018 sub period, JSE All Share Index and JSE Top 40 Index are negatively related. For the real effective exchange rate, only the Consumer Services Index is positively related to the exchange rate in terms of June 1995 to June 2007 sub period. However, JSE All Share Index and JSE Top 40 Index are negatively related to the exchange rate in all study periods. In terms of the short term interest rate, for the whole period, JSE All Share Index, JSE Top 40 Index, Health Care Index and Telecommunications Index are negatively related to interest rate. In terms of the June 1995 to June 2007 sub period, JSE All Share Index and Industrials Index are negatively related to the short term interest rate. For the July 2007 to December 2018 sub period, Telecommunications Index and Technology Index are negatively related. In terms of the short run, the coincident indicator is positively and significantly related to the various JSE indices for all study periods. Inflation is not significantly related to any index in the whole period. In terms of the June 1995 to June 2007 sub period, Industrials Index and Financials Index are positively related to inflation and in the July 2007 to December 2018 sub period, Consumer Goods Index, Health Index and Consumer Services Index are negatively related to the inflation rate. The real effective exchange rate is positively and significantly related to the various JSE indices in the different study periods. In terms of the short term interest rate, for the whole period and the June 1995 to June 2007 sub period only the Technology Index is not significantly and negatively related to the short term interest rate, but for the July 2007 to December 2018 sub period, Top 40 Index, Telecommunications Index and Technology Index are positively related to the interest rate. Only the Financial Index is negatively related to short term interest rates during this sub period. Research Limitations- Not a lot literature was found on the relationship between macroeconomic variables and the various sector indices of the JSE. Most previous work, in the South African context focused just on the JSE All Share Index. Practical Implications- The findings can help investors diversify their portfolios into indices that benefit from expected changes in macroeconomic variables, such as recessions, rising interest rates, rising inflation or a weakening exchange rate. Alternatively, they can hedge themselves against the negative implications of such macroeconomic changes on portfolio performance. In addition, the findings are important for the monetary authorities to better understand the implications of their policy changes on financial markets.
- Full Text:
- Authors: Mapanda, Tungamirai Chisvuvo
- Date: 2020
- Subjects: Johannesburg Stock Exchange , Stock price indexes -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/147445 , vital:38637
- Description: Purpose- The purpose of this paper is to analyse the relationship between changes in domestic macroeconomic variables and various indices of the JSE during the full time period, June 1995 to December 2018 and the sub-periods, June 1995 to June 2007 and July 2007 to December 2018. Design/ methodology/ approach- The paper employs the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model approach to cointegration using monthly data from June 1995 to December 2018. Findings- In terms of the long run, the results show that the coincident indicator measure of domestic economic activity is positively and significantly related to the various JSE indices for all study periods. In terms of inflation, the results show no relationship between inflation rate and the various indices for both whole period and June 1995 to June 2007 sub period. However for the July 2007 to December 2018 sub period, JSE All Share Index and JSE Top 40 Index are negatively related. For the real effective exchange rate, only the Consumer Services Index is positively related to the exchange rate in terms of June 1995 to June 2007 sub period. However, JSE All Share Index and JSE Top 40 Index are negatively related to the exchange rate in all study periods. In terms of the short term interest rate, for the whole period, JSE All Share Index, JSE Top 40 Index, Health Care Index and Telecommunications Index are negatively related to interest rate. In terms of the June 1995 to June 2007 sub period, JSE All Share Index and Industrials Index are negatively related to the short term interest rate. For the July 2007 to December 2018 sub period, Telecommunications Index and Technology Index are negatively related. In terms of the short run, the coincident indicator is positively and significantly related to the various JSE indices for all study periods. Inflation is not significantly related to any index in the whole period. In terms of the June 1995 to June 2007 sub period, Industrials Index and Financials Index are positively related to inflation and in the July 2007 to December 2018 sub period, Consumer Goods Index, Health Index and Consumer Services Index are negatively related to the inflation rate. The real effective exchange rate is positively and significantly related to the various JSE indices in the different study periods. In terms of the short term interest rate, for the whole period and the June 1995 to June 2007 sub period only the Technology Index is not significantly and negatively related to the short term interest rate, but for the July 2007 to December 2018 sub period, Top 40 Index, Telecommunications Index and Technology Index are positively related to the interest rate. Only the Financial Index is negatively related to short term interest rates during this sub period. Research Limitations- Not a lot literature was found on the relationship between macroeconomic variables and the various sector indices of the JSE. Most previous work, in the South African context focused just on the JSE All Share Index. Practical Implications- The findings can help investors diversify their portfolios into indices that benefit from expected changes in macroeconomic variables, such as recessions, rising interest rates, rising inflation or a weakening exchange rate. Alternatively, they can hedge themselves against the negative implications of such macroeconomic changes on portfolio performance. In addition, the findings are important for the monetary authorities to better understand the implications of their policy changes on financial markets.
- Full Text:
An analysis of the influence of domestic macroeconomic variables on the performance of the South African stock market sectoral indices
- Authors: Hancocks, Ryan Lee
- Date: 2011
- Subjects: Johannesburg Stock Exchange , Stock price indexes -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Macroeconomics -- Econometric models
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:954
- Description: An econometric study was undertaken to determine the extent to which selected macroeconomic variables influenced stock market prices on the All-Share, Financial, Mining and Retail Indices of the Johannesburg Stock Exchange in South Africa from 1996:7 to 2008:12. The Johansen cointegration method was used to determine whether cointegrating relationships existed between the macroeconomic variables and the stock market indices. A Vector Error Correction model was estimated and found significant results that money supply, inflation, long and short- run interest rates, and the exchange rate all had an influence on stock market prices. Further, the VECM results for each sector indicated that certain macroeconomic variables had differing influences on each sector of the stock market. Impulse Response tests indicated that the selected macroeconomic variables caused shock to the sectoral indices in the short-run but that the effect was lagged. The Variance Decomposition tests conducted supported earlier evidence that the macroeconomic variables had a strong level of sectoral index determinacy in the long run. The results found that the All-Share and Financial Indices were negatively influenced by inflation and short term interest rates in the long run, while the Financial Index also had a negative relationship with long-run interest rates. Money supply was found to have a positive effect on all the indices. A weakening of the exchange rate was found to have a positive influence on both the Retail and Mining Indices, while it negatively affected the All-Share and Financial Indices. The long-run interest rate had a positive influence on both the Retail and Mining Indices. Overall the study finds that macroeconomic variables are important determinants of stock market prices in South Africa and that it is important to examine each sector of the stock market separately to capture what are different effects. The limitations of the study are that a different measure for exchange rates from the nominal rand/dollar exchange rate used here may yield more decisive results and provide insight into the link between exchange rate behaviour and performance of especially the retail sector.
- Full Text:
- Authors: Hancocks, Ryan Lee
- Date: 2011
- Subjects: Johannesburg Stock Exchange , Stock price indexes -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Macroeconomics -- Econometric models
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:954
- Description: An econometric study was undertaken to determine the extent to which selected macroeconomic variables influenced stock market prices on the All-Share, Financial, Mining and Retail Indices of the Johannesburg Stock Exchange in South Africa from 1996:7 to 2008:12. The Johansen cointegration method was used to determine whether cointegrating relationships existed between the macroeconomic variables and the stock market indices. A Vector Error Correction model was estimated and found significant results that money supply, inflation, long and short- run interest rates, and the exchange rate all had an influence on stock market prices. Further, the VECM results for each sector indicated that certain macroeconomic variables had differing influences on each sector of the stock market. Impulse Response tests indicated that the selected macroeconomic variables caused shock to the sectoral indices in the short-run but that the effect was lagged. The Variance Decomposition tests conducted supported earlier evidence that the macroeconomic variables had a strong level of sectoral index determinacy in the long run. The results found that the All-Share and Financial Indices were negatively influenced by inflation and short term interest rates in the long run, while the Financial Index also had a negative relationship with long-run interest rates. Money supply was found to have a positive effect on all the indices. A weakening of the exchange rate was found to have a positive influence on both the Retail and Mining Indices, while it negatively affected the All-Share and Financial Indices. The long-run interest rate had a positive influence on both the Retail and Mining Indices. Overall the study finds that macroeconomic variables are important determinants of stock market prices in South Africa and that it is important to examine each sector of the stock market separately to capture what are different effects. The limitations of the study are that a different measure for exchange rates from the nominal rand/dollar exchange rate used here may yield more decisive results and provide insight into the link between exchange rate behaviour and performance of especially the retail sector.
- Full Text:
An empirical investigation into the determinants of stock market behaviour in South Africa
- Authors: Olalere, Durodola Oludamola
- Date: 2007
- Subjects: Johannesburg Stock Exchange , Stocks -- Prices -- South Africa , Stock exchanges -- South Africa , Macroeconomics -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:998 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002733 , Johannesburg Stock Exchange , Stocks -- Prices -- South Africa , Stock exchanges -- South Africa , Macroeconomics -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa
- Description: The argument with regards to whether macro-economic fundamentals determine stock market behaviour is very important because of the roles it plays in an economy. Such roles include: pooling and trading of risks, mobilization of savings, provision of liquidity and allocation of capital. However, the stock market will only perform such roles effectively if the macro-economic environment is conducive. This study examined the behaviour of the All Share Index (ALSI) and market capitalization on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange in response to changes in the domestic and international macro-economic fundamentals such as the consumer price index, rand-dollar real exchange rates, domestic GDP, yield on South African government bonds, yield on United States government bonds and United States GDP. The study used cointegration and error correction techniques proposed by Johansen and Juselius (1990) to test for long run relationship. Two separate models were estimated and results obtained show that the two proxies for the stock market behaviour (All share Index and market capitalization) are true endogenous variables, but react differently to economic fundamentals. The consumer price index has a significant negative impact on the JSE share price index while market capitalization is determined predominantly by the yield on South African government bonds. The exchange rate seems to have had little or no influence on the share price index, but becomes negative and significant in the case of market capitalization. The yield on United States government bonds also produced a strong influence on both the share price index and market capitalization. While it has a negative significant impact on share prices, it produced a positive significant impact on market capitalization. In order to ascertain whether the South African interest rate or the United States interest rate is more important in explaining the share price and market capitalization, each of the variables were estimated in the model separately, the result obtained reveals that the United States interest rate is more important than the domestic interest rate in explaining the share price and market capitalization on the JSE. This implies that investors need to observe the USA interest rate before investing in South African equities. A comparison of the responses of share price index and market capitalization to impulses from the macro-economic variables tested reveals that both proxies elicit a positive response from aggregate output. The share price index responds more significantly to impulses from output growth than the market capitalization, meaning that, as aggregate production increases, the share price index tends to respond positively and quickly. The exchange rate produced mixed result from the two proxies, while it produced a positive response from the market capitalization; an initial positive response was noted in the share price index that immediately turned negative. Another glaring contrast was identified in the response of both proxies to impulses from the United States interest rate. The share price index responded positively while the market capitalization produced a negative response. This finding reveals that the two proxies actually respond differently to macro-economic variables. The variance decomposition of both stock prices and market capitalization reveals that the yield on United States government bonds has a more significant absorption potential than the South African government bonds. However, the absorption process is slower in the case of the market capitalization. The exchange rate has a greater impact on the market capitalization than stock prices. The overall assessment shows that share prices respond faster than market capitalization to macro-economic fundamentals. The study also shows that the increased openness of the South African economy by way of relaxation of the exchange control on capital account transaction has allowed the USA market to play a crucial role in equity prices in South Africa. Three main policy recommendations results from the study. Firstly, if inflation is well monitored, then the local equity market is bound to perform strongly resulting in strong shares earning growth. Secondly, the exchange rate should be made to be less volatile so that long term investment plans across borders can be further enhanced. Thirdly, financial analyst and investors in South Africa need to analyse macro-economic developments in the United States before investing in equities in South Africa.
- Full Text:
- Authors: Olalere, Durodola Oludamola
- Date: 2007
- Subjects: Johannesburg Stock Exchange , Stocks -- Prices -- South Africa , Stock exchanges -- South Africa , Macroeconomics -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:998 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002733 , Johannesburg Stock Exchange , Stocks -- Prices -- South Africa , Stock exchanges -- South Africa , Macroeconomics -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa
- Description: The argument with regards to whether macro-economic fundamentals determine stock market behaviour is very important because of the roles it plays in an economy. Such roles include: pooling and trading of risks, mobilization of savings, provision of liquidity and allocation of capital. However, the stock market will only perform such roles effectively if the macro-economic environment is conducive. This study examined the behaviour of the All Share Index (ALSI) and market capitalization on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange in response to changes in the domestic and international macro-economic fundamentals such as the consumer price index, rand-dollar real exchange rates, domestic GDP, yield on South African government bonds, yield on United States government bonds and United States GDP. The study used cointegration and error correction techniques proposed by Johansen and Juselius (1990) to test for long run relationship. Two separate models were estimated and results obtained show that the two proxies for the stock market behaviour (All share Index and market capitalization) are true endogenous variables, but react differently to economic fundamentals. The consumer price index has a significant negative impact on the JSE share price index while market capitalization is determined predominantly by the yield on South African government bonds. The exchange rate seems to have had little or no influence on the share price index, but becomes negative and significant in the case of market capitalization. The yield on United States government bonds also produced a strong influence on both the share price index and market capitalization. While it has a negative significant impact on share prices, it produced a positive significant impact on market capitalization. In order to ascertain whether the South African interest rate or the United States interest rate is more important in explaining the share price and market capitalization, each of the variables were estimated in the model separately, the result obtained reveals that the United States interest rate is more important than the domestic interest rate in explaining the share price and market capitalization on the JSE. This implies that investors need to observe the USA interest rate before investing in South African equities. A comparison of the responses of share price index and market capitalization to impulses from the macro-economic variables tested reveals that both proxies elicit a positive response from aggregate output. The share price index responds more significantly to impulses from output growth than the market capitalization, meaning that, as aggregate production increases, the share price index tends to respond positively and quickly. The exchange rate produced mixed result from the two proxies, while it produced a positive response from the market capitalization; an initial positive response was noted in the share price index that immediately turned negative. Another glaring contrast was identified in the response of both proxies to impulses from the United States interest rate. The share price index responded positively while the market capitalization produced a negative response. This finding reveals that the two proxies actually respond differently to macro-economic variables. The variance decomposition of both stock prices and market capitalization reveals that the yield on United States government bonds has a more significant absorption potential than the South African government bonds. However, the absorption process is slower in the case of the market capitalization. The exchange rate has a greater impact on the market capitalization than stock prices. The overall assessment shows that share prices respond faster than market capitalization to macro-economic fundamentals. The study also shows that the increased openness of the South African economy by way of relaxation of the exchange control on capital account transaction has allowed the USA market to play a crucial role in equity prices in South Africa. Three main policy recommendations results from the study. Firstly, if inflation is well monitored, then the local equity market is bound to perform strongly resulting in strong shares earning growth. Secondly, the exchange rate should be made to be less volatile so that long term investment plans across borders can be further enhanced. Thirdly, financial analyst and investors in South Africa need to analyse macro-economic developments in the United States before investing in equities in South Africa.
- Full Text:
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