The effects of sovereign credit rating on the banking sector in South Africa
- Authors: Makhetha-Kosi, Palesa
- Date: 2022-04
- Subjects: Prime rate , South Africa -- Banking institutions , Credit ratings
- Language: English
- Type: Master's theses , text
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/57809 , vital:58267
- Description: The study investigated the effect of sovereign credit rating on the banking sector in South Africa. Four different models with different measures of the banking sector were used to investigate this effect. In the first model Tobit model was used to analyse the effect of sovereign credit rating on bank ratings in South Africa. The study found that sovereign credit ratings have a significant positive effect on bank credit ratings. Using GMM with a sample of 11 banks, with bank lending as the measure for the banking sector, the study found that sovereign credit ratings (SCR) have a positive and significant effect on bank lending by commercial banks in South Africa. The study also used net interest margin, a measure for bank profitability as a third proxy for the banking sector and found that sovereign credit ratings have a significant positive effect on bank profitability. Furthermore, the study used bank stability measured by Z-Score to assess the effect of sovereign credit rating on the banking sector in South Africa. Taking a different approach and using ARDL, the study found that SCR has a positive long-run relationship with Z-Score. Based on the findings in all four models, the study concluded that the sovereign credit rating has a positive and significant effect on the banking sector in South Africa. This means that the sovereign credit ratings upgrade will lead to an improvement in the banking sector. A sovereign credit rating downgrade will be detrimental to the banking sector in South Africa. The study has shown that there are interlinkages between the public and the private sector; therefore, government must come up with strategic policies to ensure stability and reduction of government debt. Policymakers of the banking sector should also strengthen policies that will ensure banks remain profitable and stable even during a sovereign crisis. An effective and efficient asset management is important for the survival of South African commercial banks. The study recommends that both the private and public sector should work in cooperation when formulating policies so that the impact of the regulatory measure on commercial banks is taken into consideration. , Thesis (PhD) -- Faculty of Business and Economic science, 2022
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- Date Issued: 2022-04
The relationship between bank concentration and the interest rate pass through in selected African countries
- Authors: Mangwengwende, Tadiwanashe Mukudzeyi
- Date: 2010
- Subjects: Interest rates -- Effect of inflation on -- Africa , Monetary policy -- Africa , Prime rate , Prime rate -- Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:942 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002675
- Description: Given the importance of monetary policy in the operation of a successful modern economy and the use of official interest rates as tools in its implementation, this study investigates the implications of changing bank concentration on the operation of the Interest Rate Pass Through (IRPT) of official rates to bank lending and deposit rates. This is an issue made more poignant by growing mergers, acquisitions and bank consolidation exercises around the world that have brought interest to their implications for economic performance. However, with contention high in the industrial organisation theory on the likely relationship between bank concentration and the IRPT, and the outcomes of empirical investigations producing conflicting evidence, the desire to investigate the issue in the African context necessitated a thorough empirical investigation of four African countries (South Africa, Botswana, Nigeria and Zambia). This study not only extended the investigation of the issue to the African context, but it merged different IRPT measurement techniques that had not been jointly applied to this particular issue, namely; Symmetric and Asymmetric Error Correction Models, Mean Adjustment Lags, Ordinary Least Squares estimations and Autoregressive Distributed Lag models. These measures of the IRPT were compared with three firm concentration ratios on two different levels of analysis, one, over the entire period and, another, through eight year rolling windows. The results reveal that bank concentration can sometimes be related to the speed and magnitude of the IRPT but that these relationships are not consistent amongst the countries, over the entire sample period or across the two levels of analysis, suggesting reasons why empirical results have arrived at contrasting conclusions. The results revealed more evidence of a relationship between bank concentration and the magnitude of the IRPT than between bank concentration and the speed of the IRPT. Furthermore, where relationships were identified there was evidence supporting both the structure conduct performance hypothesis and the competing efficient market hypothesis as the true representation of the relationship between bank concentration and the IRPT. The key implication of the result for African countries is that increased bank concentration through bank consolidation programmes should not be automatically regarded as detrimental to the effective implementation of monetary policy through the IRPT. Consequently,banking sector regulation need not stifle bank consolidation and growth to preserve monetary policy effectiveness. Rather, since the relationship cannot be neatly represented by a single theory or hypothesis each country must determine its own interaction between bank concentration and its IRPT before policies regarding the banking sector concentration and effective monetary policy, through the use of official interest rates, are determined.
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- Date Issued: 2010