The development of an ionospheric storm-time index for the South African region
- Authors: Tshisaphungo, Mpho
- Date: 2021-04
- Subjects: Ionospheric storms -- South Africa , Global Positioning System , Neural networks (Computer science) , Regression analysis , Ionosondes , Auroral electrojet , Geomagnetic indexes , Magnetic storms -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: thesis , text , Doctoral , PhD
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/178409 , vital:42937 , 10.21504/10962/178409
- Description: This thesis presents the development of a regional ionospheric storm-time model which forms the foundation of an index to provide a quick view of the ionospheric storm effects over South African mid-latitude region. The model is based on the foF2 measurements from four South African ionosonde stations. The data coverage for the model development over Grahamstown (33.3◦S, 26.5◦E), Hermanus (34.42◦S, 19.22◦E), Louisvale (28.50◦S, 21.20◦E), and Madimbo (22.39◦S, 30.88◦E) is 1996-2016, 2009-2016, 2000-2016, and 2000-2016 respectively. Data from the Global Positioning System (GPS) and radio occultation (RO) technique were used during validation. As the measure of either positive or negative storm effect, the variation of the critical frequency of the F2 layer (foF2) from the monthly median values (denoted as _foF2) is modeled. The modeling of _foF2 is based on only storm time data with the criteria of Dst 6 -50 nT and Kp > 4. The modeling methods used in the study were artificial neural network (ANN), linear regression (LR) and polynomial functions. The approach taken was to first test the modeling techniques on a single station before expanding the study to cover the regional aspect. The single station modeling was developed based on ionosonde data over Grahamstown. The inputs for the model which related to seasonal variation, diurnal variation, geomagnetic activity and solar activity were considered. For the geomagnetic activity, three indices namely; the symmetric disturbance in the horizontal component of the Earth’s magnetic field (SYM − H), the Auroral Electrojet (AE) index and local geomagnetic index A, were included as inputs. The performance of a single station model revealed that, of the three geomagnetic indices, SYM − H index has the largest contribution of 41% and 54% based on ANN and LR techniques respectively. The average correlation coefficients (R) for both ANN and LR models was 0.8, when validated during the selected storms falling within the period of model development. When validated using storms that fall outside the period of model development, the model gave R values of 0.6 and 0.5 for ANN and LR respectively. In addition, the GPS total electron content (TEC) derived measurements were used to estimate foF2 data. This is because there are more GPS receivers than ionosonde locations and the utilisation of this data increases the spatial coverage of the regional model. The estimation of foF2 from GPS TEC was done at GPS-ionosonde co-locations using polynomial functions. The average R values of 0.69 and 0.65 were obtained between actual and derived _foF2 over the co-locations and other GPS stations respectively. Validation of GPS TEC derived foF2 with RO data over regions out of ionospheric pierce points coverage with respect to ionosonde locations gave R greater than 0.9 for the selected storm period of 4-8 August 2011. The regional storm-time model was then developed based on the ANN technique using the four South African ionosonde stations. The maximum and minimum R values of 0.6 and 0.5 were obtained over ionosonde and GPS locations respectively. This model forms the basis towards the regional ionospheric storm-time index. , Thesis (PhD) -- Faculty of Science, Physics and Electronics, 2021
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2021-04
- Authors: Tshisaphungo, Mpho
- Date: 2021-04
- Subjects: Ionospheric storms -- South Africa , Global Positioning System , Neural networks (Computer science) , Regression analysis , Ionosondes , Auroral electrojet , Geomagnetic indexes , Magnetic storms -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: thesis , text , Doctoral , PhD
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/178409 , vital:42937 , 10.21504/10962/178409
- Description: This thesis presents the development of a regional ionospheric storm-time model which forms the foundation of an index to provide a quick view of the ionospheric storm effects over South African mid-latitude region. The model is based on the foF2 measurements from four South African ionosonde stations. The data coverage for the model development over Grahamstown (33.3◦S, 26.5◦E), Hermanus (34.42◦S, 19.22◦E), Louisvale (28.50◦S, 21.20◦E), and Madimbo (22.39◦S, 30.88◦E) is 1996-2016, 2009-2016, 2000-2016, and 2000-2016 respectively. Data from the Global Positioning System (GPS) and radio occultation (RO) technique were used during validation. As the measure of either positive or negative storm effect, the variation of the critical frequency of the F2 layer (foF2) from the monthly median values (denoted as _foF2) is modeled. The modeling of _foF2 is based on only storm time data with the criteria of Dst 6 -50 nT and Kp > 4. The modeling methods used in the study were artificial neural network (ANN), linear regression (LR) and polynomial functions. The approach taken was to first test the modeling techniques on a single station before expanding the study to cover the regional aspect. The single station modeling was developed based on ionosonde data over Grahamstown. The inputs for the model which related to seasonal variation, diurnal variation, geomagnetic activity and solar activity were considered. For the geomagnetic activity, three indices namely; the symmetric disturbance in the horizontal component of the Earth’s magnetic field (SYM − H), the Auroral Electrojet (AE) index and local geomagnetic index A, were included as inputs. The performance of a single station model revealed that, of the three geomagnetic indices, SYM − H index has the largest contribution of 41% and 54% based on ANN and LR techniques respectively. The average correlation coefficients (R) for both ANN and LR models was 0.8, when validated during the selected storms falling within the period of model development. When validated using storms that fall outside the period of model development, the model gave R values of 0.6 and 0.5 for ANN and LR respectively. In addition, the GPS total electron content (TEC) derived measurements were used to estimate foF2 data. This is because there are more GPS receivers than ionosonde locations and the utilisation of this data increases the spatial coverage of the regional model. The estimation of foF2 from GPS TEC was done at GPS-ionosonde co-locations using polynomial functions. The average R values of 0.69 and 0.65 were obtained between actual and derived _foF2 over the co-locations and other GPS stations respectively. Validation of GPS TEC derived foF2 with RO data over regions out of ionospheric pierce points coverage with respect to ionosonde locations gave R greater than 0.9 for the selected storm period of 4-8 August 2011. The regional storm-time model was then developed based on the ANN technique using the four South African ionosonde stations. The maximum and minimum R values of 0.6 and 0.5 were obtained over ionosonde and GPS locations respectively. This model forms the basis towards the regional ionospheric storm-time index. , Thesis (PhD) -- Faculty of Science, Physics and Electronics, 2021
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2021-04
Plants, people, and place: complex, mutualistic, and co-evolving global patterns through time
- Authors: Van Wijk, Yvette Ethné
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: Ethnobotany -- South Africa -- Western Cape , Khoisan (African people) -- Ethnobotany , Human-plant relationships -- South Africa -- Western Cape , Plants -- Classification -- South Africa -- Western Cape , Plant remains (Archaeology) -- South Africa -- Western Cape , Ethnoscience -- South Africa -- Western Cape , Regression analysis
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Doctoral , PhD
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/76575 , vital:30609
- Description: My thesis studies and analyses the suite of distinctive plant taxa which persist in small patches of vegetation growing in close association with archaeological habitation sites in the southern Cape, South Africa. The unexpected correlation and overlap between botanical taxa collected at 75 site complexes, and ethnobotanical data collected in collaboration with modern Khoi-San communities in the same area, is explored and interrogated. Although sparse, reports of the same suite of taxa recovered from archaeological excavations in the Cape provinces provides depth of time to the study, linking the past to the present. The three-way correlation of a suite of plants closely associated with humans and habitation sites through time, allows for triangulation of the data in order to validate and cross verify the results using more than one frame of reference. Both the plants and the knowledge about their uses have persisted in spite of historical attrition, and alienation of land and language, suffered by the Khoi-San over the past 300 years. Drawing on a large body of primary and secondary data, and using an interdisciplinary, abductive and pragmatic mixed methods approach, a pattern can be traced throughout Africa and globally. Regression analysis strongly indicates that the most ubiquitous taxa were selected for a purpose and are not randomly present in association with humans. Botanical, anthropological, and archaeological studies seldom focus on the inter-connectedness of people and plants at the sites they inhabited. Very little research into modern vegetation in close association with the sites has been undertaken, and vegetation mapping has not captured the occurrence of these site-specific small vegetation patches recorded during my surveys. The topographically, geologically, and vegetatively complex and varied southern Cape, and greater Cape area, is extremely rich in archaeological sites and history. This study suggests that the value of site-specific plant taxa to humans throughout the aeons of pre-agricultural history, persists into the present. Due to tolerance of a broad range of climatic and environmental variables, there is value in the study of these ancient and neglected useful plants in the face of climate change. That this vegetation is so closely associated with archaeological sites of cultural and historic importance confers an urgency to recognising the existence and significance of the distinctive and possibly anthropogenic vegetation surrounding the sites.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2019
- Authors: Van Wijk, Yvette Ethné
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: Ethnobotany -- South Africa -- Western Cape , Khoisan (African people) -- Ethnobotany , Human-plant relationships -- South Africa -- Western Cape , Plants -- Classification -- South Africa -- Western Cape , Plant remains (Archaeology) -- South Africa -- Western Cape , Ethnoscience -- South Africa -- Western Cape , Regression analysis
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Doctoral , PhD
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/76575 , vital:30609
- Description: My thesis studies and analyses the suite of distinctive plant taxa which persist in small patches of vegetation growing in close association with archaeological habitation sites in the southern Cape, South Africa. The unexpected correlation and overlap between botanical taxa collected at 75 site complexes, and ethnobotanical data collected in collaboration with modern Khoi-San communities in the same area, is explored and interrogated. Although sparse, reports of the same suite of taxa recovered from archaeological excavations in the Cape provinces provides depth of time to the study, linking the past to the present. The three-way correlation of a suite of plants closely associated with humans and habitation sites through time, allows for triangulation of the data in order to validate and cross verify the results using more than one frame of reference. Both the plants and the knowledge about their uses have persisted in spite of historical attrition, and alienation of land and language, suffered by the Khoi-San over the past 300 years. Drawing on a large body of primary and secondary data, and using an interdisciplinary, abductive and pragmatic mixed methods approach, a pattern can be traced throughout Africa and globally. Regression analysis strongly indicates that the most ubiquitous taxa were selected for a purpose and are not randomly present in association with humans. Botanical, anthropological, and archaeological studies seldom focus on the inter-connectedness of people and plants at the sites they inhabited. Very little research into modern vegetation in close association with the sites has been undertaken, and vegetation mapping has not captured the occurrence of these site-specific small vegetation patches recorded during my surveys. The topographically, geologically, and vegetatively complex and varied southern Cape, and greater Cape area, is extremely rich in archaeological sites and history. This study suggests that the value of site-specific plant taxa to humans throughout the aeons of pre-agricultural history, persists into the present. Due to tolerance of a broad range of climatic and environmental variables, there is value in the study of these ancient and neglected useful plants in the face of climate change. That this vegetation is so closely associated with archaeological sites of cultural and historic importance confers an urgency to recognising the existence and significance of the distinctive and possibly anthropogenic vegetation surrounding the sites.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2019
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