An assessment of the social ecological system of Mabira forest and environs: implications for vulnerability to climate variability
- Authors: Jjagwe, Aisha
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: Climate hazards
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Doctoral , Degree
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/44726 , vital:38163
- Description: Tropical forests are attracting attention in climate change debates considering the fundamental role they play as carbon sinks. Mabira Central Forest Reserve (CFR) found in the Lake Victoria basin region and of significance in achieving the Sustainable Development Goals. It has however undergone drastic degradation since the 1970s and its social economic ecological and environmental functions are at risk. The present study assessed the Social Ecological System (SES) of Mabira CFR and environs as well as the implications for vulnerability to climate variability. It focused on; i) assessment of the spatial temporal changes of Mabira CFR; to which Landsat images of 1975, 1986, 2000 and 2015 were used in combination with ground truthing for a successful classification of land use/cover types. ii) Determine the implications of land use/cover types and forest management options for above ground biomass (AGB) and soil organic carbon (SOC); here Velle, (1995) allometric equation was adopted for the AGB while the Walkley and Black (1934) was used to determine soil organic carbon iii) Determine the implications of land use cover change for livelihood and vulnerability to climate change impacts; to this the Social Ecological systems framework by Ostrom (2009) was adopted to understand the vulnerability implications for land use cover change (LUCC) and Climate variability in a forest based community. The study reveals that heavy deforestation and degradation continue to pose threats to Mabira CFR and environs. Major drivers of LUCC are: population expansion, loss of soil fertility, poor agricultural practices, establishment of roadside markets, industrialization and unclear forestry boundary. Findings indicate that although forest comprised the biggest coverage between 1975 and 2000, it has faced massive reduction between 2000 and 2015. Major forest conversions have been to subsistence farming (5.94%). The implications of LUCC are reflected in; the exposure of soils to degradation as seen from deforestation; soil erosion; carbon sequestration and climate variability constraining livelihoods. AGB and carbon was found highest in the strict nature reserve where on average the parameters noted above were found to be bigger. The recreation buffer had less carbon compared to the strict nature reserve; however the production zone, which had scattered trees with smaller parameters, registered the lowest average total AGB and carbon. Results indicate a perfectly strong relationship between the AGB and carbon variables. Results also indicate that approximately 6,771092.344 tonnes are sunk in the strict nature reserve. SOC analyzed based on the soil carbon percentage content. In terms of soil depth, the 0-10cm and 10-20cm soil layers had relatively similar variations of least square means for carbon than at 20-30cm soil layer. The highest SOC was observed in the soil surface of 0-10 cm depth, with the highest mean of 2.78 % across all the management zones. The amount of soil organic matter also varied with land use /cover types. Study findings reveal that LUCC and land management have a direct influence on soil organic carbon accumulation. Results indicate that LUCC implications for AGB and SOC as well as climate variability lead to livelihood vulnerability. Climate hazards experienced have affected SES, temperature variation range between 1oC -2oC. These variations are likely to increase vulnerability. This study recommends mapping of LUCC to identify priority areas for intervention. Priority should be given to reducing deforestation and restore degraded areas. Future research should focus on building adaptive capacity for forest based communities to mitigate climate change, improving forest tenure as a strategy for climate change impacts, integrating climate change into forest policy reviews.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2019
- Authors: Jjagwe, Aisha
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: Climate hazards
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Doctoral , Degree
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/44726 , vital:38163
- Description: Tropical forests are attracting attention in climate change debates considering the fundamental role they play as carbon sinks. Mabira Central Forest Reserve (CFR) found in the Lake Victoria basin region and of significance in achieving the Sustainable Development Goals. It has however undergone drastic degradation since the 1970s and its social economic ecological and environmental functions are at risk. The present study assessed the Social Ecological System (SES) of Mabira CFR and environs as well as the implications for vulnerability to climate variability. It focused on; i) assessment of the spatial temporal changes of Mabira CFR; to which Landsat images of 1975, 1986, 2000 and 2015 were used in combination with ground truthing for a successful classification of land use/cover types. ii) Determine the implications of land use/cover types and forest management options for above ground biomass (AGB) and soil organic carbon (SOC); here Velle, (1995) allometric equation was adopted for the AGB while the Walkley and Black (1934) was used to determine soil organic carbon iii) Determine the implications of land use cover change for livelihood and vulnerability to climate change impacts; to this the Social Ecological systems framework by Ostrom (2009) was adopted to understand the vulnerability implications for land use cover change (LUCC) and Climate variability in a forest based community. The study reveals that heavy deforestation and degradation continue to pose threats to Mabira CFR and environs. Major drivers of LUCC are: population expansion, loss of soil fertility, poor agricultural practices, establishment of roadside markets, industrialization and unclear forestry boundary. Findings indicate that although forest comprised the biggest coverage between 1975 and 2000, it has faced massive reduction between 2000 and 2015. Major forest conversions have been to subsistence farming (5.94%). The implications of LUCC are reflected in; the exposure of soils to degradation as seen from deforestation; soil erosion; carbon sequestration and climate variability constraining livelihoods. AGB and carbon was found highest in the strict nature reserve where on average the parameters noted above were found to be bigger. The recreation buffer had less carbon compared to the strict nature reserve; however the production zone, which had scattered trees with smaller parameters, registered the lowest average total AGB and carbon. Results indicate a perfectly strong relationship between the AGB and carbon variables. Results also indicate that approximately 6,771092.344 tonnes are sunk in the strict nature reserve. SOC analyzed based on the soil carbon percentage content. In terms of soil depth, the 0-10cm and 10-20cm soil layers had relatively similar variations of least square means for carbon than at 20-30cm soil layer. The highest SOC was observed in the soil surface of 0-10 cm depth, with the highest mean of 2.78 % across all the management zones. The amount of soil organic matter also varied with land use /cover types. Study findings reveal that LUCC and land management have a direct influence on soil organic carbon accumulation. Results indicate that LUCC implications for AGB and SOC as well as climate variability lead to livelihood vulnerability. Climate hazards experienced have affected SES, temperature variation range between 1oC -2oC. These variations are likely to increase vulnerability. This study recommends mapping of LUCC to identify priority areas for intervention. Priority should be given to reducing deforestation and restore degraded areas. Future research should focus on building adaptive capacity for forest based communities to mitigate climate change, improving forest tenure as a strategy for climate change impacts, integrating climate change into forest policy reviews.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2019
Evaluating Livestock Development Programmes through the Production Risk Interface: Case of the Kaonafatso ya Dikgomo (KyD) Scheme in South Africa
- Authors: Ngarava, Saul
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: Livestock projects
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Doctoral , Degree
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10353/15730 , vital:40513
- Description: Livestock is significant in the livelihoods of the rural poor, providing a plethora of benefits. Livestock Development Programmes (LDPs) can transform smallholder farmers’ production for increased production and poverty reduction. The Kaonafatso ya Dikgomo (KyD) Scheme is a LDP implemented in South Africa with the aim of assisting smallholder farmers to attain economic and sustainable beef production. The literature shows that most evaluations of LDPs have been quantitative based on measurable and quantifiable metrics. Furthermore, various socio-economic and institutional factors have a bearing on the decision to participate in LDPs and eventually adopting the practices. Impact assessments of LDPs have been devoid of risk consideration as well as ascertaining how risk introduced by participating in LDPs has impacted productivity. The overall objective of the study was therefore to evaluate LDPs, focussing on benefits, participation and risk. The specific objectives of the study entailed developing a conceptual tool for measuring the qualitative and secondary benefits. Secondly, it was to determine factors influencing participation decisions in the KyD Scheme. Thirdly, the study sought to measure and compare calving rate and off-take rate risk between KyD Scheme participants and non-participants. Lastly, the study highlighted the variability (risk) introduced by participating in a LDP and its impact on production. The study utilised a cross-sectional survey of KyD Scheme participants and nonparticipants in KwaZulu-Natal, Limpopo and Eastern Cape Provinces of South Africa. Non-probability convenience sampling method was utilised in selecting a sample of 164 KyD Scheme participants and 81 non-participants. A semi-structured questionnaire was the data collection tool utilised. A conceptual “Livelihood Effect Benefit Index”; Probit, Tobit and Ordered Probit models; Just and Pope Production function; Propensity Score Matching; and Monte Carlo Simulations were utilised to analyse data. Statistical Package for Social Scientists version 24, STATA 13 and @Risk Decision Tool were the analytical packages utilised in analysing the data. The study found that the Scheme provided low qualitative benefits, mainly through social capital. Furthermore, socio-economic and institutional factors have significant impact on the decision to participate in the Scheme, extent of participation and decision to continue practicing Scheme experiences. In comparing the two groups of Scheme and Scheme non-participants, calving and off-take risk for KyD Scheme participants was lower than that of Scheme non-participants. In comparing individuals with similar characteristics between the two groups, Scheme participants reduced calving risk whilst increasing the off-take risk. Page | vi The study concluded that the Scheme exhibited low qualitative benefits. Furthermore, the decisions to participate and the extent of participation in the KyD Scheme were influenced by various socio-economic and institutional factors, which were however more favourable to resource endowed smallholder farmers. In addition, the Scheme had significant impact on production risk. The risk reducing determinants appeared to also favour more resource endowed smallholder farmers who had more farming experience. The study’s recommendations were subdivided into short term, medium term and long term. The short term recommendations included targeting farmers within a distance of between 30km and 90km from a formal market, promoting dipping services-based training and extension, and providing information and training concerning calving i.e. animal health, husbandry and breed selection for herd maximization. Participation in the Scheme and the extent of participation can be improved through enhancing awareness of the Scheme at various points where stock feed are available to farmers. Furthermore, enhanced cooperation with extension workers provides a conduit in improving awareness of the Scheme and enhancing participation. The medium term recommendations pertained to initiatives such as promoting other livelihood options to enhance benefits of the programme, and promoting social capital enhancing initiatives such as mentoring and providing social capital objectives that can be integrated into the overall livestock sector strategy. The long-term recommendations include initiatives such as subsidizing increase in herd size to between 50 and 120 cattle, maintaining a monthly frequency of farmer-extension contact of between 2 and 5 times per month, as well as incorporating calving and off-take risk in policy formulation, implementation and evaluation
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2019
- Authors: Ngarava, Saul
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: Livestock projects
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Doctoral , Degree
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10353/15730 , vital:40513
- Description: Livestock is significant in the livelihoods of the rural poor, providing a plethora of benefits. Livestock Development Programmes (LDPs) can transform smallholder farmers’ production for increased production and poverty reduction. The Kaonafatso ya Dikgomo (KyD) Scheme is a LDP implemented in South Africa with the aim of assisting smallholder farmers to attain economic and sustainable beef production. The literature shows that most evaluations of LDPs have been quantitative based on measurable and quantifiable metrics. Furthermore, various socio-economic and institutional factors have a bearing on the decision to participate in LDPs and eventually adopting the practices. Impact assessments of LDPs have been devoid of risk consideration as well as ascertaining how risk introduced by participating in LDPs has impacted productivity. The overall objective of the study was therefore to evaluate LDPs, focussing on benefits, participation and risk. The specific objectives of the study entailed developing a conceptual tool for measuring the qualitative and secondary benefits. Secondly, it was to determine factors influencing participation decisions in the KyD Scheme. Thirdly, the study sought to measure and compare calving rate and off-take rate risk between KyD Scheme participants and non-participants. Lastly, the study highlighted the variability (risk) introduced by participating in a LDP and its impact on production. The study utilised a cross-sectional survey of KyD Scheme participants and nonparticipants in KwaZulu-Natal, Limpopo and Eastern Cape Provinces of South Africa. Non-probability convenience sampling method was utilised in selecting a sample of 164 KyD Scheme participants and 81 non-participants. A semi-structured questionnaire was the data collection tool utilised. A conceptual “Livelihood Effect Benefit Index”; Probit, Tobit and Ordered Probit models; Just and Pope Production function; Propensity Score Matching; and Monte Carlo Simulations were utilised to analyse data. Statistical Package for Social Scientists version 24, STATA 13 and @Risk Decision Tool were the analytical packages utilised in analysing the data. The study found that the Scheme provided low qualitative benefits, mainly through social capital. Furthermore, socio-economic and institutional factors have significant impact on the decision to participate in the Scheme, extent of participation and decision to continue practicing Scheme experiences. In comparing the two groups of Scheme and Scheme non-participants, calving and off-take risk for KyD Scheme participants was lower than that of Scheme non-participants. In comparing individuals with similar characteristics between the two groups, Scheme participants reduced calving risk whilst increasing the off-take risk. Page | vi The study concluded that the Scheme exhibited low qualitative benefits. Furthermore, the decisions to participate and the extent of participation in the KyD Scheme were influenced by various socio-economic and institutional factors, which were however more favourable to resource endowed smallholder farmers. In addition, the Scheme had significant impact on production risk. The risk reducing determinants appeared to also favour more resource endowed smallholder farmers who had more farming experience. The study’s recommendations were subdivided into short term, medium term and long term. The short term recommendations included targeting farmers within a distance of between 30km and 90km from a formal market, promoting dipping services-based training and extension, and providing information and training concerning calving i.e. animal health, husbandry and breed selection for herd maximization. Participation in the Scheme and the extent of participation can be improved through enhancing awareness of the Scheme at various points where stock feed are available to farmers. Furthermore, enhanced cooperation with extension workers provides a conduit in improving awareness of the Scheme and enhancing participation. The medium term recommendations pertained to initiatives such as promoting other livelihood options to enhance benefits of the programme, and promoting social capital enhancing initiatives such as mentoring and providing social capital objectives that can be integrated into the overall livestock sector strategy. The long-term recommendations include initiatives such as subsidizing increase in herd size to between 50 and 120 cattle, maintaining a monthly frequency of farmer-extension contact of between 2 and 5 times per month, as well as incorporating calving and off-take risk in policy formulation, implementation and evaluation
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2019
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