Exploring and modelling the effects of agricultural land management and climate change on agroecosystem services in the Eastern Cape, South Africa
- Authors: Choruma, Dennis Junior
- Date: 2020
- Subjects: Agricultural ecology -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape , Agriculture -- Environmental aspects -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape , Crops and climate -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape , Corn -- Climatic factors -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape , Land use -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Doctoral , PhD
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/146756 , vital:38554
- Description: The aims of this study were to evaluate the impacts of agricultural land management strategies and climate change on irrigated maize production in the Eastern Cape, South Africa. To achieve these aims, the study was guided by two overarching research questions, subsequently broken down into more specific questions. The first research question examined the reasons behind farmers’ current agricultural land management practices, the values they assigned to different agroecosystem services, their perceptions of climate change and the adaptation strategies they used to address challenges associated with agricultural crop production and climate change. To answer these questions, a survey of conventional farmers in the Eastern Cape was carried out. The survey targeted farmers who used fertilisers and irrigation water in their day to day farming. Results showed that farmers recognised the different benefits that agroecosystems provided even though they were not familiar with the term ‘ecosystem services.’ Farmers assigned a high value to food provisioning compared to other agroecosystem services and managed their farms for maximum crop yields or maximum crop quality. Fertiliser and irrigation water management decisions were based on multiple factors such as cost, availability of farming equipment and crop yield or crop quality considerations. Survey results showed that while most farmers were able to state the amount of fertiliser used per growing season, the majority of farmers did not know the amount of water they used per growing season. From the farmers’ survey it was recommended that extension services and agricultural education programmes be strengthened in the region to increase farmers’ knowledge on effective agricultural land management strategies that support sustainable intensification. The second research question investigated the effects of agricultural land management strategies and climate change on crop yields in the Eastern Cape. This investigation was done in three steps. First, a crop model, the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model was calibrated and validated using limited field data from maize variety trials carried out at the Cradock Research Farm in the Eastern Cape. Calibration and validation results proved satisfactory with model efficiencies (Nash Sutcliffe, NSE) greater than 0.5 for both calibration and validation. It was concluded that limited data from field trials on maize that only included grain yield and agricultural land management dates can be used for the calibration of the EPIC model to simulate maize production under South African conditions. In the second step, the calibrated model was applied to simulate different irrigation and fertiliser management strategies for maize production in the Eastern Cape. Different irrigation and Nitrogen (N) fertiliser levels were compared to find optimal irrigation and N fertiliser management strategies that would increase maize yields while minimising environmental pollution (nitrate leaching). Model outputs were also compared to the average yields obtained in the field trials (baseline) and to maize yields reported by farmers in the farmers’ survey. Results showed that improved management of irrigation water and N fertiliser could improve farmers’ maize yields from approximately 7.2 t ha-1 to approximately 12.2 t ha-1, an increase of approximately 69%. Results also revealed a trade-off between food provision and nitrate leaching. Simulations showed that increasing N fertiliser application under sufficient irrigation water levels would increase maize yields, however, this would be accompanied by an increase in N leaching. Lastly, the EPIC model was then applied to simulate the effects of future climate change on irrigated maize production in the Eastern Cape. For these simulations, the model was driven by statistically downscaled climate data derived from three General Circulation Models (GCMs) for two future climate periods, (2040-2069) and (2070-2099), under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs): RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. Future maize yields were compared to the baseline (1980-2010) maize yield average. All three climate models predicted a decline in maize yields, with yields declining by as much as 23.8% in RCP 8.5, 2070-2099. Simulations also predicted increases in average daily maximum and minimum temperatures for both the two future climate periods under both RCPs. Results also indicated a decrease in seasonal irrigation water requirements. Nitrate leaching was projected to significantly increase towards the end of the century, increasing by as much as 373.8% in RCP 8.5 2070-2099. Concerning farmers’ perceptions of climate change, results showed that farmers were aware of climate change and identified temperature and rainfall changes as the most important changes in climate that they had observed. To adapt to climate change, farmers used a variety of adaptation strategies such as crop rotations and intercropping. Apart from challenges posed by climate change, farmers also faced other challenges such as access to markets and access to financial credit lines, challenges that prevented them from effectively adapting to climate change. The study therefore recommended that appropriate and adequate strategies be designed to help farmers in the region offset the projected decrease in maize production and increase crop yields while minimising negative environmental impacts.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2020
- Authors: Choruma, Dennis Junior
- Date: 2020
- Subjects: Agricultural ecology -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape , Agriculture -- Environmental aspects -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape , Crops and climate -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape , Corn -- Climatic factors -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape , Land use -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Doctoral , PhD
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/146756 , vital:38554
- Description: The aims of this study were to evaluate the impacts of agricultural land management strategies and climate change on irrigated maize production in the Eastern Cape, South Africa. To achieve these aims, the study was guided by two overarching research questions, subsequently broken down into more specific questions. The first research question examined the reasons behind farmers’ current agricultural land management practices, the values they assigned to different agroecosystem services, their perceptions of climate change and the adaptation strategies they used to address challenges associated with agricultural crop production and climate change. To answer these questions, a survey of conventional farmers in the Eastern Cape was carried out. The survey targeted farmers who used fertilisers and irrigation water in their day to day farming. Results showed that farmers recognised the different benefits that agroecosystems provided even though they were not familiar with the term ‘ecosystem services.’ Farmers assigned a high value to food provisioning compared to other agroecosystem services and managed their farms for maximum crop yields or maximum crop quality. Fertiliser and irrigation water management decisions were based on multiple factors such as cost, availability of farming equipment and crop yield or crop quality considerations. Survey results showed that while most farmers were able to state the amount of fertiliser used per growing season, the majority of farmers did not know the amount of water they used per growing season. From the farmers’ survey it was recommended that extension services and agricultural education programmes be strengthened in the region to increase farmers’ knowledge on effective agricultural land management strategies that support sustainable intensification. The second research question investigated the effects of agricultural land management strategies and climate change on crop yields in the Eastern Cape. This investigation was done in three steps. First, a crop model, the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model was calibrated and validated using limited field data from maize variety trials carried out at the Cradock Research Farm in the Eastern Cape. Calibration and validation results proved satisfactory with model efficiencies (Nash Sutcliffe, NSE) greater than 0.5 for both calibration and validation. It was concluded that limited data from field trials on maize that only included grain yield and agricultural land management dates can be used for the calibration of the EPIC model to simulate maize production under South African conditions. In the second step, the calibrated model was applied to simulate different irrigation and fertiliser management strategies for maize production in the Eastern Cape. Different irrigation and Nitrogen (N) fertiliser levels were compared to find optimal irrigation and N fertiliser management strategies that would increase maize yields while minimising environmental pollution (nitrate leaching). Model outputs were also compared to the average yields obtained in the field trials (baseline) and to maize yields reported by farmers in the farmers’ survey. Results showed that improved management of irrigation water and N fertiliser could improve farmers’ maize yields from approximately 7.2 t ha-1 to approximately 12.2 t ha-1, an increase of approximately 69%. Results also revealed a trade-off between food provision and nitrate leaching. Simulations showed that increasing N fertiliser application under sufficient irrigation water levels would increase maize yields, however, this would be accompanied by an increase in N leaching. Lastly, the EPIC model was then applied to simulate the effects of future climate change on irrigated maize production in the Eastern Cape. For these simulations, the model was driven by statistically downscaled climate data derived from three General Circulation Models (GCMs) for two future climate periods, (2040-2069) and (2070-2099), under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs): RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. Future maize yields were compared to the baseline (1980-2010) maize yield average. All three climate models predicted a decline in maize yields, with yields declining by as much as 23.8% in RCP 8.5, 2070-2099. Simulations also predicted increases in average daily maximum and minimum temperatures for both the two future climate periods under both RCPs. Results also indicated a decrease in seasonal irrigation water requirements. Nitrate leaching was projected to significantly increase towards the end of the century, increasing by as much as 373.8% in RCP 8.5 2070-2099. Concerning farmers’ perceptions of climate change, results showed that farmers were aware of climate change and identified temperature and rainfall changes as the most important changes in climate that they had observed. To adapt to climate change, farmers used a variety of adaptation strategies such as crop rotations and intercropping. Apart from challenges posed by climate change, farmers also faced other challenges such as access to markets and access to financial credit lines, challenges that prevented them from effectively adapting to climate change. The study therefore recommended that appropriate and adequate strategies be designed to help farmers in the region offset the projected decrease in maize production and increase crop yields while minimising negative environmental impacts.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2020
Land use/cover change modelling and land degradation assessment in the Keiskamma catchment using remote sensing and GIS
- Authors: Mhangara, Paidamwoyo
- Date: 2011
- Subjects: Land use -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape , Land degradation -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape , Keiskamma River (South Africa)
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Doctoral , PhD
- Identifier: vital:10647 , http://hdl.handle.net/10948/1467 , Land use -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape , Land degradation -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape , Keiskamma River (South Africa)
- Description: Land degradation in most communal parts of the Keiskamma catchment has reached alarming proportions. The Keiskamma catchment is particularly predisposed to severe land degradation associated with soil erosion, thicket degradation and deteriorating riparian vegetation. There is a close coupling between land use/cover dynamics and degradation trends witnessed in the catchment. Soil erosion is prevalent in most of the communal areas in the catchment. The principal aim of this study was to investigate land use/cover trends, model the spatial patterns of soil loss and predict future land use/cover scenarios as a means of assessing land degradation in the Keiskamma catchment. Multi-temporal Landsat satellite imagery from 1972 to 2006 was used for land use/cover change analyses using object-oriented post-classification comparison. Fragmentation analysis was performed by computing and analyzing landscape metrics in the riparian and adjacent hillslope areas to determine the land cover structural changes that have occurred since 1972. The landscape function analysis was used to validate the current rangeland conditions in the communal areas and the former commercial farms. The current condition of the riparian zones and proximal hillslopes was assessed using the Rapid Appraisal of Riparian Condition and future land use/cover scenarios were simulated using the Markovcellular automata model. Spatial patterns of soil loss in the Keiskamma catchment were determined using the Sediment Assessment Tool for Effective Erosion Control (SATEEC), which is a GIS based RUSLE model that integrates sediment delivery ratios. Object oriented classification was used to map soil erosion surfaces and valley infill in ephemeral stream channels as a means of demonstrating the major sediment transfer processes operating in the Keiskamma catchment. The Mahalanobis distance method was used to compute the topographic thresholds for gully erosion. To understand the effect of soil characteristics in severe forms of erosion, laboratory analyses were undertaken to determine the physico-chemical soil properties. iv The temporal land use/cover analysis done using the post-classification change detection indicated that intact vegetation has undergone a significant decline from 1972 to 2006. The temporal changes within the intermediate years are characterized by cyclic transitions of decline and recovery of intact vegetation. An overall decline in intact vegetation cover, an increase in degraded vegetation and bare eroded soil was noted. Fragmentation analyses done in the communal villages of the central Keiskamma catchment indicated increasing vegetation fragmentation manifested by an increase in smaller and less connected vegetation patches, and a subsequent increase of bare and degraded soil patches which are much bigger and more connected. The Landscape Organisation Index revealed very low vegetation connectivity in the communal rangelands that have weak local traditional institutions. Fragmentation analyses in the riparian and proximal hillslopes revealed evidence of increasing vegetation fragmentation from 1972 to 2006. The Markov Cellular Automata simulation predicted a decline in intact vegetation and an increase in bare and degraded soil in 2019. The Keiskamma catchment was noted as experiencing high rates of soil loss that are above provincial and national averages. The classification of erosion features and valley infill showcased the vegetation enrichment in the ephemeral streams which is occurring at the expense of high soil losses from severe gully erosion on the hillslopes. This in turn has led to an inversion of grazing patterns within the catchment, such that grazing is now concentrated within the ephemeral stream channels. Soil chemical analyses revealed a high sodium content and low soluble salt concentration, which promote soil dispersion, piping and gully erosion. The presence of high amounts of illite-smectite in the catchment also accounts for the highly dispersive nature of the soil even at low SAR values. Significant amounts of swelling 2:1 silicate clays such as smectites cause cracking and contribute to the development of piping and gullying in the catchment. Given the worsening degradation trends in the communal areas, a systematic re-allocation of state land in sections of the catchment that belonged to the former commercial farms is recommended to alleviate anthropogenic pressure. Strengthening local institutions that effectively monitor and manage natural resources will be required in order to maintain v optimum flow regimes in rivers and curb thicket degradation. Measures to curb environmental degradation in the Keiskamma catchment should encompass suitable ecological interventions that are sensitive to the socio-economic challenges facing the people in communal areas.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2011
- Authors: Mhangara, Paidamwoyo
- Date: 2011
- Subjects: Land use -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape , Land degradation -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape , Keiskamma River (South Africa)
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Doctoral , PhD
- Identifier: vital:10647 , http://hdl.handle.net/10948/1467 , Land use -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape , Land degradation -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape , Keiskamma River (South Africa)
- Description: Land degradation in most communal parts of the Keiskamma catchment has reached alarming proportions. The Keiskamma catchment is particularly predisposed to severe land degradation associated with soil erosion, thicket degradation and deteriorating riparian vegetation. There is a close coupling between land use/cover dynamics and degradation trends witnessed in the catchment. Soil erosion is prevalent in most of the communal areas in the catchment. The principal aim of this study was to investigate land use/cover trends, model the spatial patterns of soil loss and predict future land use/cover scenarios as a means of assessing land degradation in the Keiskamma catchment. Multi-temporal Landsat satellite imagery from 1972 to 2006 was used for land use/cover change analyses using object-oriented post-classification comparison. Fragmentation analysis was performed by computing and analyzing landscape metrics in the riparian and adjacent hillslope areas to determine the land cover structural changes that have occurred since 1972. The landscape function analysis was used to validate the current rangeland conditions in the communal areas and the former commercial farms. The current condition of the riparian zones and proximal hillslopes was assessed using the Rapid Appraisal of Riparian Condition and future land use/cover scenarios were simulated using the Markovcellular automata model. Spatial patterns of soil loss in the Keiskamma catchment were determined using the Sediment Assessment Tool for Effective Erosion Control (SATEEC), which is a GIS based RUSLE model that integrates sediment delivery ratios. Object oriented classification was used to map soil erosion surfaces and valley infill in ephemeral stream channels as a means of demonstrating the major sediment transfer processes operating in the Keiskamma catchment. The Mahalanobis distance method was used to compute the topographic thresholds for gully erosion. To understand the effect of soil characteristics in severe forms of erosion, laboratory analyses were undertaken to determine the physico-chemical soil properties. iv The temporal land use/cover analysis done using the post-classification change detection indicated that intact vegetation has undergone a significant decline from 1972 to 2006. The temporal changes within the intermediate years are characterized by cyclic transitions of decline and recovery of intact vegetation. An overall decline in intact vegetation cover, an increase in degraded vegetation and bare eroded soil was noted. Fragmentation analyses done in the communal villages of the central Keiskamma catchment indicated increasing vegetation fragmentation manifested by an increase in smaller and less connected vegetation patches, and a subsequent increase of bare and degraded soil patches which are much bigger and more connected. The Landscape Organisation Index revealed very low vegetation connectivity in the communal rangelands that have weak local traditional institutions. Fragmentation analyses in the riparian and proximal hillslopes revealed evidence of increasing vegetation fragmentation from 1972 to 2006. The Markov Cellular Automata simulation predicted a decline in intact vegetation and an increase in bare and degraded soil in 2019. The Keiskamma catchment was noted as experiencing high rates of soil loss that are above provincial and national averages. The classification of erosion features and valley infill showcased the vegetation enrichment in the ephemeral streams which is occurring at the expense of high soil losses from severe gully erosion on the hillslopes. This in turn has led to an inversion of grazing patterns within the catchment, such that grazing is now concentrated within the ephemeral stream channels. Soil chemical analyses revealed a high sodium content and low soluble salt concentration, which promote soil dispersion, piping and gully erosion. The presence of high amounts of illite-smectite in the catchment also accounts for the highly dispersive nature of the soil even at low SAR values. Significant amounts of swelling 2:1 silicate clays such as smectites cause cracking and contribute to the development of piping and gullying in the catchment. Given the worsening degradation trends in the communal areas, a systematic re-allocation of state land in sections of the catchment that belonged to the former commercial farms is recommended to alleviate anthropogenic pressure. Strengthening local institutions that effectively monitor and manage natural resources will be required in order to maintain v optimum flow regimes in rivers and curb thicket degradation. Measures to curb environmental degradation in the Keiskamma catchment should encompass suitable ecological interventions that are sensitive to the socio-economic challenges facing the people in communal areas.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2011
Using social marketing to bridge the gap between systematic conservation planning and implementation at the local government level
- Authors: Wilhelm-Rechmann, Angelika
- Date: 2011
- Subjects: Nature conservation -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape , Land use -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Doctoral , PhD
- Identifier: vital:10603 , http://hdl.handle.net/10948/1550 , Nature conservation -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape , Land use -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape
- Description: The study presented here describes an attempt to bridge the gap between systematic conservation assessment and decision-making for land-use planning in the Eastern Cape province, South Africa. The aim was to investigate how to effectively convince officials concerned with land use planning processes in the local municipal sphere to include conservation priorities meaningfully in their processes. The approach used to reach this aim was social marketing, the use of marketing technologies and concepts to effect behavior changes to further societal good. So far social marketing is not commonly used in the conservation domain; I therefore aimed also at proving the usefulness of this approach for conservation. Following the introduction which provides background to the project and a more detailed summary, Chapter 2 provides a detailed and comprehensive review of the considerations and concepts regarding the use of social marketing in a context geared at protecting nature. The research on the primary target group for this study, officials concerned with land use planning processes in the local municipal sphere is described in Chapter 3. The main outcomes were that land use planners perceive few needs with regards to implementing the incorporation of biodiversity conservation issues in the land use planning process, and that the deficiencies in the land use planning process per se, as well as the lack of recognition in the political sphere (the domain of elected councilors), represent the core barriers to adopting the conservation priorities. I conclude that to effect behavior change towards adoption of conservation priorities the land use planning processes need to be supported and the political sphere need to be included in the behavior change process. 6 Chapter 4 therefore focuses on the new target group that emerged as essential in the previous chapter, locally elected councilors. I found that councilors do actually consider land use planning procedures as being important, but also as being dysfunctional. Councilors do value their natural environment for themselves as well as for its tourism value, but most councilors had little understanding of what the term “biodiversity” means and did not connect the term “sustainability” with the natural environment. It became also evident, that councilors do not see conservation in a predominantly positive manner. Chapter 5 therefore yields insight on councilor’s perception that environmental protection and development are mutually exclusive, and the negative frames attached to the conservation endeavor as being socially unjust, disrespectful and utopian. In Chapter 6 I investigated the usefulness of a tractable and well established measure of environmental attitudes or beliefs. I assessed my target audience’s responses to the New Ecological Paradigm scale and the Inclusion of Nature in Self scale. I conclude in Chapter 7 with an account of the difficulties I encountered during the project, an assessment of my project from a social marketing perspective, components of my project that did not yield the results expected, and a proposal for future research.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2011
- Authors: Wilhelm-Rechmann, Angelika
- Date: 2011
- Subjects: Nature conservation -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape , Land use -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Doctoral , PhD
- Identifier: vital:10603 , http://hdl.handle.net/10948/1550 , Nature conservation -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape , Land use -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape
- Description: The study presented here describes an attempt to bridge the gap between systematic conservation assessment and decision-making for land-use planning in the Eastern Cape province, South Africa. The aim was to investigate how to effectively convince officials concerned with land use planning processes in the local municipal sphere to include conservation priorities meaningfully in their processes. The approach used to reach this aim was social marketing, the use of marketing technologies and concepts to effect behavior changes to further societal good. So far social marketing is not commonly used in the conservation domain; I therefore aimed also at proving the usefulness of this approach for conservation. Following the introduction which provides background to the project and a more detailed summary, Chapter 2 provides a detailed and comprehensive review of the considerations and concepts regarding the use of social marketing in a context geared at protecting nature. The research on the primary target group for this study, officials concerned with land use planning processes in the local municipal sphere is described in Chapter 3. The main outcomes were that land use planners perceive few needs with regards to implementing the incorporation of biodiversity conservation issues in the land use planning process, and that the deficiencies in the land use planning process per se, as well as the lack of recognition in the political sphere (the domain of elected councilors), represent the core barriers to adopting the conservation priorities. I conclude that to effect behavior change towards adoption of conservation priorities the land use planning processes need to be supported and the political sphere need to be included in the behavior change process. 6 Chapter 4 therefore focuses on the new target group that emerged as essential in the previous chapter, locally elected councilors. I found that councilors do actually consider land use planning procedures as being important, but also as being dysfunctional. Councilors do value their natural environment for themselves as well as for its tourism value, but most councilors had little understanding of what the term “biodiversity” means and did not connect the term “sustainability” with the natural environment. It became also evident, that councilors do not see conservation in a predominantly positive manner. Chapter 5 therefore yields insight on councilor’s perception that environmental protection and development are mutually exclusive, and the negative frames attached to the conservation endeavor as being socially unjust, disrespectful and utopian. In Chapter 6 I investigated the usefulness of a tractable and well established measure of environmental attitudes or beliefs. I assessed my target audience’s responses to the New Ecological Paradigm scale and the Inclusion of Nature in Self scale. I conclude in Chapter 7 with an account of the difficulties I encountered during the project, an assessment of my project from a social marketing perspective, components of my project that did not yield the results expected, and a proposal for future research.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2011
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