The predictive ability of the yield spread in timing the stock exchange: a South African case
- Authors: Cook, Jenna
- Date: 2020
- Subjects: Stocks -- Mathematical models , Probits , Johannesburg Stock Exchange
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/147025 , vital:38586
- Description: The use of the yield curve in forecasting economic recessions is well established in the literature. A new avenue of use for the yield curve has emerged in the form of using it to forecast bull and bear stock markets. This has the potential to change how investors manage portfolios. A dynamic market-timing strategy would allow investors to shift out of or in to stock markets based on the probability of bear stock market in the future. The relationship between the yield curve and the stock market is tested using an adapted probit model. This has proven positive with encouraging results for the US, India and Spain. This is tested for South Africa using the adapted probit model and the SA yield spread. Bear stock markets are identified on the JSE and forms part of the probit modelling process. Bear markets are identified using a six- and four-month criteria. As South Africa is a small, open and developing economy, the probit is also modelled using the US yield spread. The three probit models do not appear to track bear markets well. This is substantiated through the Henriksson-Merton parametric model test which tests for market timing ability. The results for the SA yield spread using both bear market criteria do not show market timing ability, however, the SA and US yield spread model does show potential market timing ability.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2020
The primacy of illicit financial flows (IFFs) in developing countries: a comparative study analysis of South Africa and China
- Authors: Mahlaba, Asande Cikizwa
- Date: 2020
- Subjects: Money -- Developing countries , Transfer pricing -- South Africa , Developing countries -- Economic conditions , Tax evasion -- China , Tax evasion -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/147435 , vital:38636
- Description: The main objective of this study was to question and investigate the primacy of illicit financial flows (IFFs) in developing countries, specifically focused on two countries namely China and South Africa. Africa is estimated to have lost approximately $1 trillion to IFFs over the last 50 years, which exceeds the financial assistance that these nations needed over the same period. For years. Africa has been the feeding ground for exploitation and resource plunder, and the narrative has always been Africa is underdeveloped because of this crime. Although this statement holds true in most African countries, what this paper seeks to do is to question whether capital flight, IFFs and more specifically tax evasion and tax haven activity are the reason for the deterioration of African economies or are IFFs perpetuated by economies with unsustainable growth paths. IFFs are an important factor when it comes to obstacles of economic growth. But are they the cause or effect? A very strong case can be made that they are the latter however, it is beyond the scope of this article to resolve this question. Its purpose is merely to assert that the question is a valid one and that presuming the answer could divert attention from the real question of economic development. This study contextualized the way in which IFFs are currently viewed in the world economic system according to the two approaches to development finance, and discussed modern monetary theory as an extension off these theories. Due to the nature of the study, the methodology employed is a case study approach between China and South Africa by means of extensive numerical and document analysis. Upon conducting this analysis on the primacy of illicit financial flows in developing countries there was difficulty in measuring IFFs. The reason for this is because IFFs have a range of estimates so it was very difficult to produce precise and accurate results. The key findings of this paper were that there seems to be some kind of parallel between developing countries with large volumes of illicit financial outflows, and a dependency these countries have on external debt. This means it seems that weak economies, that are highly dependent on external debt and have large amounts of this debt, seem to have the largest volumes of illicit financial outflows. Weak regulation, high levels of debt and liberalised trade markets seem to be contributing factors to the degree to which companies evade taxes and partake in tax haven activity in these regions. Another key finding was that in 2012, despite China being ranked number one in the the countries which have the largest amounts of outflows on average, it still managed to achieve large amounts growth in the last 20 years. Indicating that there is some form of indication that IFFs could be viewed as symptomatic of weak financial systems and weak economies, instead of IFFs being the core of the problem.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2020
The relationship between export diversification, export concentration and economic growth
- Authors: Mchani, Sibusisiwe
- Date: 2020
- Subjects: Exports Economic development
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/49670 , vital:41769
- Description: Export diversification on economic growth has been a controversial issue in the empirical literature for a long time. This study examined the role of export diversification and export concentration on economic growth in the top ten trading countries in Africa and top ten trading countries in the world. The study used annual time series data for the period covering 1995 to 2014 and employed a PMG (Pooled Mean Group) Model to determine the effects of export concentration and export diversification and possible factors that affect it on economic growth. The estimation results attest to a positive effect of export diversification and a negative effect of export concentration on economic growth in the top ten trading countries in the world. However, for the top ten trading countries in Africa, the results show that export diversification is negatively related to economic growth, while export concentration positively affects economic growth. These results hold even when the DOLS and FMOLS are employed establishing their robustness. The study further shows that other control variables such as employment and government spending positively affect economic growth, while human capital and investment negatively affects economic growth in Africa. In the top ten trading countries in the World, government expenditure and investment are significant positive determinants of economic growth. It is recommended that governments in Africa countries should promote export diversification together with government expenditure, and pursue policies that will attract foreign direct investment into growth–enhancing productive sectors of their economies
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2020
The South African income tax implications of a Stokvel
- Authors: Matshego, Katlego
- Date: 2020
- Subjects: Rotating credit associations -- South Africa. , Taxation -- South Africa , Tax deductions -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/143094 , vital:38201
- Description: The term “Stokvel” originates from the rotating cattle auctions of English settlers in the Eastern Cape during the nineteen century. A Stokvel is defined as a credit union where a group of people agree to contribute a fixed amount of money to a common pool and is referred to as a rotating savings and credit association, where the contributions to a fund are given in whole or in part to each member. The goal of the thesis was to determine the “gross income” implications of the fund and its members, as well the deductibility of their expenses. An interpretative research approach was used in the research as it sought to understand and describe. No interviews were conducted for this research and the data used for the research are publicly available. The tax implications of five different types of a Stokvel were considered in relation to the research goals through the application of legislation and case law principles. The study established that a collection burial society, where funds are contributed after death, does not beneficially receive funds and it is not entitled to any deductions. The same applies to the member of that society. A contributing burial society, where funds are contributed over time, beneficially receives funds, which are included in “gross income”, and qualifies for deductions. The receipt by the member is exempt and deductions are prohibited by section 23(f). An entertainment Stokvel does not receive the contributions on its own behalf and benefit. No deductions are available to it. However, the member beneficially receives the contributions from the Stokvel, which are included in “gross income”, and qualifies for deductions. A purchasing power group, where items are purchased on behalf of members, does not receive the funds beneficially and no deductions are available to it. The members simply receive the goods they have paid for. Lastly an investment Stokvel, which invests contributions for the members, beneficially receives contributions and qualifies for various deductions. The member receives the share of income from the Stokvel for his/her own benefit. However, no deductions are available in respect of contributions.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2020
The value of economic capital as an indicator to protect prospective and existing ordinary shareholders
- Authors: Chonzi, Tendai Day
- Date: 2020
- Subjects: Banks and banking -- Risk management -- South Africa , Financial services industry -- Risk management -- South Africa , ABSA Bank , FirstRand Limited , Nedbank , Standard Bank Limited , Capitec Bank (South Africa)
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/145807 , vital:38468
- Description: South Africans banking sector is one of the most dominating banking sectors in Africa. The banking sector is privately owned and involves a lot of different stakeholders, who risk losing their investments. One of the stakeholders who are the bottom of the repayment chain are existing ordinary shareholders because they risk losing all their investment in the result of bankruptcy, liquidity crises or the inability of the bank to repay their shareholders. Regulators in the banking sector only protect the depositor and the stability of the banking sector but not ordinary shareholders. An internal supervisory measure called economic capital has recently received more attention because of its aim to protect ordinary shareholders and thus, existing and prospective shareholders can use its value as a protective indicator. Economic theory assumes that the higher the value of economic capital (the lower the economic capital shortfall), the lower the return on investment for existing ordinary shareholders. The aforementioned shows a trade-off between protection (economic capital) and returns. Literature by Larsson (2009) further suggests that banks are always reluctant with implementing internal measures to protect themselves because of the good regulatory regime in the sector, some banks think that they are “too big to fail” and the fact that the reserve banks are always on the standby as a bailout. The purpose of this research is to examine which of the top five commercial banks in South African actively protect their existing ordinary shareholders using the value of economic capital and possibly attract prospective ordinary shareholders, locally and internationally. The banks under study are Absa, Capitec, FirstRand, Nedbank and Standard Bank over ten years, starting from June 2009 to May 2019 and in monthly frequency. The observations totalled 120 and two models that are under the Return Series Method were in used, namely; Historical Simulation Model and Variance Covariance Model. Both models, although they were small deviations in the value of economic capital, concluded that Standard Bank protects its existing ordinary shareholders the most, followed by FirstRand, then Absa and last is Nedbank. Capitec was the only bank, after one financial shock that could not protect its existing ordinary shareholders. Moreover, evidence in the study shows a trade-off between economic capital and return on investment in the case of Capitec and Standard Bank. Standard Bank had the highest value of economic capital and second-lowest return on investment, while Capitec had the highest return on investment and lowest value of economic capital. The significant policy implication of the research is that financial institution needs to strike a balance between protection and profits; thus, a way of protecting various stakeholders. Financial shocks have proven that regulatory measures are weak and they are is need for internal measures (economic capital) which indicate how financial institution can sustain in such cases.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2020
Tokyo Sexwale residents’ perceptions of the socio-cultural impacts of tourism in Jeffrey’s Bay
- Authors: Madlwabinga, Zolani Maxwell
- Date: 2020
- Subjects: Tourism -- Social aspects -- South Africa -- Jeffrey's Bay
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/48786 , vital:41072
- Description: In the context of tourism, the community is seen as one of many stakeholders, with the other stakeholders being the tourism product owners, the government and tourism marketers. An understanding of a particular community’s perceptions and attitudes and how these perceptions are shaped concerning tourism development is important for decision-makers. The knowledge and involvement of the community in tourism related matters often determine the success of tourism development. The key element of effective planning for tourism is involving the local community and paying attention to their ideas, needs and aspirations, regarding tourism development in their community. Therefore, the aim of this study was to determine Tokyo Sexwale residents’ perceptions of the socio-cultural impacts of tourism in Jeffrey’s Bay. In order to address this aim, the following research objectives were formulated: To conduct a comprehensive literature review on residents’ perceptions of the socio-cultural impacts of tourism; To ascertain the levels of knowledge of Tokyo Sexwale residents about tourism; and To investigate the Tokyo Sexwale residents’ perceptions of the socio-cultural impacts of tourism in Jeffrey’s Bay. In an attempt to address the objectives of this study, a quantitative research approach was adopted. Using the non-probability sampling method, specifically, convenience sampling, the data was collected by conducting the fieldwork in Tokyo Sexwale community in Jeffrey’s Bay from the beginning of June 2019 until the end of August 2019. As a result, completed questionnaires were collected from a sample size of 400 respondents. The findings revealed that 34.7 percent of the respondents were young and aged between 26-35 years. Twenty-seven (27.0) percent of the respondents have been residing in the community for six to ten (6-10) years. A substantial number of respondents had completed a secondary qualification (75.3 percent). The findings further revealed that the majority of respondents were knowledgeable about the statement “Tourism includes holiday trips, travelling away from home for recreational and business purposes” (91.5 percent). Half of the respondents indicated that they interact with tourists more frequently when they visit their area, purchasing goods and services (50.0 percent). With respect to positive and negative socio-cultural impacts of tourism, the findings revealed that 63.5 percent of respondents indicated that tourism has improved the image of Jeffrey’s Bay, while 49.5 percent of respondents indicated that traditional culture is being commercialised as a result of tourism. This study recommends that the local government and tourism businesses in Jeffrey’s Bay should implement community tourism awareness programmes to educate local residents about the potential positive and negative socio-cultural impacts of tourism. This will ensure that local residents of Tokyo Sexwale community are aware of such impacts and reject tourism developments that will be harmful to their community and support those that will benefit them.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2020
Water footprint and economic water productivity of citrus production: a comparison across three river valleys in the Eastern Cape Milands
- Authors: Danckwerts, Lindsay
- Date: 2020
- Subjects: Water in agriculture -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape , Water consumption -- South Africa -- Economic aspects , Water supply, Agricultural -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape , Citrus fruit industry -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/141064 , vital:37941
- Description: South Africa is a semi-arid, water scarce country. The nation has suffered a spate of severe droughts in several regions in recent years, which have significantly impacted the country’s economy. Global warming, population growth, and rising demand for water intensive products are only expected to intensify water supply problems in the future. The agricultural industry is the largest consumer of water in South Africa, accounting for the majority of total surface water withdrawals. As such, the agricultural sector is faced with complex and difficult management decisions in the face of a potential water supply crisis. The water footprint (WF) and economic water productivity (EWP) of citrus production across three river catchments located in the Eastern Cape Midlands (situated in the vicinity of the settlements of Adelaide, Cookhouse and Fort Beaufort respectively) were calculated and compared. In the long-term average (LTA), blue WF weighted across all three regions accounted for the greatest proportion of total WF (53%), followed in turn by green and grey WF (30% and 17% respectively). LTA blue and grey WF was lowest in the Adelaide region, while green WF was smallest in the Fort Beaufort region. Blue, green and grey WF were found to be greatest in the Cookhouse region. LTA EWP was greatest in the Fort Beaufort region and smallest in the Adelaide region. Of all variety groups assessed, lemons were found to have the lowest LTA crop water use and blue, green and grey WF when considering citrus production averaged across all three study regions. Satsumas has the second smallest LTA blue, green and grey WF, followed by navels, mid-season mandarins, and finally, late mandarins. Lemons had the greatest LTA EWP of all varieties, followed in turn by satsumas, late mandarins, mid-season mandarins and navels. Blue crop water use was consistently lowest in the designated wet year and highest in the dry year. However, this same trend was not necessarily true for WF findings. WF and EWP are useful indicators of water use which can be used to help guide complex water management decisions. However, these indicators are single-factor productivity measures applied in a multi-factor environment. It is therefore important that factors outside of water use are considered when making water management decisions. Moreover, it is important to examine the impact that the various components making up WF and EWP have on the resultant figures, rather than merely considering the superficial results themselves. Factors such as CWU, orchard maturity, crop choice, potential yield, climate, irrigation system, economic return, water allocation and water availability should all be taken into account.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2020