An analysis of the financing mechanisms proposed for funding national health insurance in South Africa
- Authors: Stevens, Nicol Susan
- Date: 2012
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:888 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1001642
- Description: In the 2011 Budget Speech, the Minister of Finance announced that South Africa would be introducing National Health Insurance. The Minister described the financing mechanisms under consideration for funding National Health Insurance. The Minister also referred to eight countries, namely Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Thailand and Vietnam as examples of countries which had successfully implemented universal health coverage. These countries were selected for the purpose of the present research. The goal of this study was to analyse the health care financing mechanisms under consideration in South Africa to determine if they were in line with international trends and "best practice" in relation to South Africa's economic profile. To determine whether the economic situation in South Africa is comparable to the eight countries selected for the research, a high-level comparison was made of the economic profile of South Africa and the eight countries, based on certain demographic, macro-economic, health expenditure and health status indicators. The health care financing mechanisms used in the eight countries was also analysed. International trends suggested that health care should be financed primarily through pre-payment systems, that financing mechanisms should preferably be progressive in nature and that a large share of funding should be from government sources (albeit shared between general tax revenue and specific health care contributions). The financing mechanisms under consideration in South Africa reflect these norms. The health systems in the eight countries analysed all exhibited elements of "good performance" and also complied, to a large extent, with international trends, but the frnancing models used for funding health care in the eight countries were country-specific and could therefore not be compared directly or used to recommend a system for South Africa. Areas not addressed by this thesis include the implications of a centralised healthcare system, the implications of a single-payer system, the benefit package to be offered and its cost implications, the role of private healthcare providers and how the significant human resource scarcity and infrastructure backlogs will be addressed.
- Full Text:
- Authors: Stevens, Nicol Susan
- Date: 2012
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:888 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1001642
- Description: In the 2011 Budget Speech, the Minister of Finance announced that South Africa would be introducing National Health Insurance. The Minister described the financing mechanisms under consideration for funding National Health Insurance. The Minister also referred to eight countries, namely Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Thailand and Vietnam as examples of countries which had successfully implemented universal health coverage. These countries were selected for the purpose of the present research. The goal of this study was to analyse the health care financing mechanisms under consideration in South Africa to determine if they were in line with international trends and "best practice" in relation to South Africa's economic profile. To determine whether the economic situation in South Africa is comparable to the eight countries selected for the research, a high-level comparison was made of the economic profile of South Africa and the eight countries, based on certain demographic, macro-economic, health expenditure and health status indicators. The health care financing mechanisms used in the eight countries was also analysed. International trends suggested that health care should be financed primarily through pre-payment systems, that financing mechanisms should preferably be progressive in nature and that a large share of funding should be from government sources (albeit shared between general tax revenue and specific health care contributions). The financing mechanisms under consideration in South Africa reflect these norms. The health systems in the eight countries analysed all exhibited elements of "good performance" and also complied, to a large extent, with international trends, but the frnancing models used for funding health care in the eight countries were country-specific and could therefore not be compared directly or used to recommend a system for South Africa. Areas not addressed by this thesis include the implications of a centralised healthcare system, the implications of a single-payer system, the benefit package to be offered and its cost implications, the role of private healthcare providers and how the significant human resource scarcity and infrastructure backlogs will be addressed.
- Full Text:
An analysis of the impact of tax changes between 1996 and 2012 on the tax burden of individuals in South Africa
- Authors: Krug, Lee
- Date: 2012
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:885 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1001639
- Description: The objective of the research was to determine whether the changes made to the Income Tax Act, 58 of 1962 between 1996 and 2012, in respect of fringe benefits, allowances, deductions, tax tables and rebates, where these changes apply to individuals, have resulted in relieving the tax burden placed on individuals in South Africa. The research was conducted by means of a critical analysis of documentary data with specific reference to the Income Tax Act, annual amendments to the Income Tax Act, statistics relating to tax collections, the National Budget and the Annual Budget Speeches as tabled by the Minister of Finance. These sources were utilised to analyse the amendments to the Act that have taken place over the last sixteen years, where they impact on the tax liability of an individual. A hypothetical example incorporating all the variables identified in the analysis of the tax amendments was used to provide a detailed analysis of the tax payable by an individual on an inflation-adjusted year-on-year basis. The research found that, whilst personal income tax is still the largest contributor to the national budget of South Africa, its contribution has decreased from 40.2 percent in 1996 to 34.3 percent in 2010. This decrease is partly attributable to the extensive tax reforms undertaken by Government with respect to the tax tables, resulting in a reduction in the marginal tax rates and increased tax rebates which had the effect that the individual taxpayer (as illustrated in the hypothetical example) experienced a decrease in the average rate of tax. In contrast to this, the increase in the taxable income of the hypothetical taxpayer exceeded the average rate of inflation over the period. Furthermore, the actual revenue collected by the government from personal income tax has increased by approximately eleven percent per annum, which far exceeds the average inflation rate of 6.23 percent. The research indicated that this could be the result of the increase in the taxable value of fringe benefits, specifically medical aid contributions and company cars, as well as the inclusion of the full amount of allowances in taxable income and the limits placed on the deductions an individual may claim. The result is a broadening of the tax base of the individual taxpayer. Therefore, although the government may have achieved its goal of a fairer tax system, the amendments made to fringe benefits, allowances and deductions have resulted in an increase in the average taxable income of individuals.
- Full Text:
- Authors: Krug, Lee
- Date: 2012
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:885 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1001639
- Description: The objective of the research was to determine whether the changes made to the Income Tax Act, 58 of 1962 between 1996 and 2012, in respect of fringe benefits, allowances, deductions, tax tables and rebates, where these changes apply to individuals, have resulted in relieving the tax burden placed on individuals in South Africa. The research was conducted by means of a critical analysis of documentary data with specific reference to the Income Tax Act, annual amendments to the Income Tax Act, statistics relating to tax collections, the National Budget and the Annual Budget Speeches as tabled by the Minister of Finance. These sources were utilised to analyse the amendments to the Act that have taken place over the last sixteen years, where they impact on the tax liability of an individual. A hypothetical example incorporating all the variables identified in the analysis of the tax amendments was used to provide a detailed analysis of the tax payable by an individual on an inflation-adjusted year-on-year basis. The research found that, whilst personal income tax is still the largest contributor to the national budget of South Africa, its contribution has decreased from 40.2 percent in 1996 to 34.3 percent in 2010. This decrease is partly attributable to the extensive tax reforms undertaken by Government with respect to the tax tables, resulting in a reduction in the marginal tax rates and increased tax rebates which had the effect that the individual taxpayer (as illustrated in the hypothetical example) experienced a decrease in the average rate of tax. In contrast to this, the increase in the taxable income of the hypothetical taxpayer exceeded the average rate of inflation over the period. Furthermore, the actual revenue collected by the government from personal income tax has increased by approximately eleven percent per annum, which far exceeds the average inflation rate of 6.23 percent. The research indicated that this could be the result of the increase in the taxable value of fringe benefits, specifically medical aid contributions and company cars, as well as the inclusion of the full amount of allowances in taxable income and the limits placed on the deductions an individual may claim. The result is a broadening of the tax base of the individual taxpayer. Therefore, although the government may have achieved its goal of a fairer tax system, the amendments made to fringe benefits, allowances and deductions have resulted in an increase in the average taxable income of individuals.
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An evaluation of the postgraduate diploma in Enterprise Management at Rhodes University
- Authors: Earle, Nicola Lynne
- Date: 2012
- Subjects: Rhodes University -- Curricula Education, Higher -- Curricula -- South Africa -- Evaluation Business education -- Curricula -- South Africa -- Evaluation Business education -- Study and teaching -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1180 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002797
- Description: This research is concerned with the development of entrepreneurship at higher education institutions (HEI). Entrepreneurship is very important in every country as there is a direct correlation between entrepreneurship development and economic growth (Hegarty, 2006). Entrepreneurship education is essential as it assists students who want to start up their own businesses by giving them the relevant skills and knowledge to have a successful business. The purpose of this research is to evaluate the Postgraduate Diploma in Enterprise Management (PDEM) within the Management Department at Rhodes University, Grahamstown. A qualitative approach was implemented which used an adapted version of the Context, Input, Process and Product Model (Stuffelbean, Mckee and Mckee, 2003). Data was collected in the form of interviews and focus group interviews. There were six lecturer interviews, one course coordinator interview and five past student interviews. There were two focus group interviews that took place; this was done so to gather data from seven current PDEM students. The data collected was then analysed through the use of qualitative data analysis techniques. These were sensing themes, constant comparison, recursiveness, inductive and deductive thinking and interpretation to generate meaning (Ruona 2005, cited in Swanson and Holton, 2005). The Management Department aims to equip students to think realistically in terms of starting their own business and to enhance the students’ knowledge and skills so that they are better able to find employment in the corporate and government sectors. The PDEM aims to be an action-learning course and to create an entrepreneurial environment which will encourage students to start up their own businesses. The role of the lecturers and the course coordinator is important as they need to ensure that there is a continuous transfer of knowledge to the students. Students are not expected to be specialists within each subject; however they need to have a basic grounding in order to run a business. Students felt that the Alpha Project was important and useful as it improved their confidence about starting a new business. An issue that was raised about the Alpha Project was that the separation of students into the Alpha Project groups was not executed well. The course was perceived to be disorganised however the students tended to enjoy it and felt that the Management Department was supportive of their businesses.
- Full Text:
- Authors: Earle, Nicola Lynne
- Date: 2012
- Subjects: Rhodes University -- Curricula Education, Higher -- Curricula -- South Africa -- Evaluation Business education -- Curricula -- South Africa -- Evaluation Business education -- Study and teaching -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1180 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002797
- Description: This research is concerned with the development of entrepreneurship at higher education institutions (HEI). Entrepreneurship is very important in every country as there is a direct correlation between entrepreneurship development and economic growth (Hegarty, 2006). Entrepreneurship education is essential as it assists students who want to start up their own businesses by giving them the relevant skills and knowledge to have a successful business. The purpose of this research is to evaluate the Postgraduate Diploma in Enterprise Management (PDEM) within the Management Department at Rhodes University, Grahamstown. A qualitative approach was implemented which used an adapted version of the Context, Input, Process and Product Model (Stuffelbean, Mckee and Mckee, 2003). Data was collected in the form of interviews and focus group interviews. There were six lecturer interviews, one course coordinator interview and five past student interviews. There were two focus group interviews that took place; this was done so to gather data from seven current PDEM students. The data collected was then analysed through the use of qualitative data analysis techniques. These were sensing themes, constant comparison, recursiveness, inductive and deductive thinking and interpretation to generate meaning (Ruona 2005, cited in Swanson and Holton, 2005). The Management Department aims to equip students to think realistically in terms of starting their own business and to enhance the students’ knowledge and skills so that they are better able to find employment in the corporate and government sectors. The PDEM aims to be an action-learning course and to create an entrepreneurial environment which will encourage students to start up their own businesses. The role of the lecturers and the course coordinator is important as they need to ensure that there is a continuous transfer of knowledge to the students. Students are not expected to be specialists within each subject; however they need to have a basic grounding in order to run a business. Students felt that the Alpha Project was important and useful as it improved their confidence about starting a new business. An issue that was raised about the Alpha Project was that the separation of students into the Alpha Project groups was not executed well. The course was perceived to be disorganised however the students tended to enjoy it and felt that the Management Department was supportive of their businesses.
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Chief executive officer compensation and the effect on company performance in a South African context
- Authors: Bradley, Samuel
- Date: 2012
- Subjects: Chief executive officers -- Salaries, etc. -- South Africa , Compensation management -- South Africa , Wage surveys -- South Africa , Organizational effectiveness -- Evaluation
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:883 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1001637 , Chief executive officers -- Salaries, etc. -- South Africa , Compensation management -- South Africa , Wage surveys -- South Africa , Organizational effectiveness -- Evaluation
- Description: The goal of this research was to determine, in a South African context, whether there is any correlation between chief executive officer compensation and the performance of the company. For the purposes of the research , the compensation of chief executive officers was broken down into three components: salary, bonus and "other" remuneration, while company performance was measured on return on equity, return on assets and earnings per share figures. Studies on this topic have been carried out in other countries, most notably in the United States of America and the United Kingdom. It appears that no research of a similar nature has been carried out in South Africa. Data in respect of the forty largest listed companies in South Africa were collected over a period of five years. The econometric models used for the research were based on models identified in the literature study. The data were then analysed for evidence of a correlation between chief executive officer compensation and the performance of the company. The results of this study indicate that there is no linear relationship between chief executive officer compensation and company performance variables. The econometric models did, however, show correlations between certain variables, taking into account the other predictor variables in the model. Evidence of correlations between age and experience and compensation was also found , which may present potential avenues of research to scholars in the future.
- Full Text:
- Authors: Bradley, Samuel
- Date: 2012
- Subjects: Chief executive officers -- Salaries, etc. -- South Africa , Compensation management -- South Africa , Wage surveys -- South Africa , Organizational effectiveness -- Evaluation
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:883 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1001637 , Chief executive officers -- Salaries, etc. -- South Africa , Compensation management -- South Africa , Wage surveys -- South Africa , Organizational effectiveness -- Evaluation
- Description: The goal of this research was to determine, in a South African context, whether there is any correlation between chief executive officer compensation and the performance of the company. For the purposes of the research , the compensation of chief executive officers was broken down into three components: salary, bonus and "other" remuneration, while company performance was measured on return on equity, return on assets and earnings per share figures. Studies on this topic have been carried out in other countries, most notably in the United States of America and the United Kingdom. It appears that no research of a similar nature has been carried out in South Africa. Data in respect of the forty largest listed companies in South Africa were collected over a period of five years. The econometric models used for the research were based on models identified in the literature study. The data were then analysed for evidence of a correlation between chief executive officer compensation and the performance of the company. The results of this study indicate that there is no linear relationship between chief executive officer compensation and company performance variables. The econometric models did, however, show correlations between certain variables, taking into account the other predictor variables in the model. Evidence of correlations between age and experience and compensation was also found , which may present potential avenues of research to scholars in the future.
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Financial liberalization, financial development and economic growth: the case for South Africa
- Authors: Savanhu, Tatenda
- Date: 2012
- Subjects: Economic development -- Case studies -- South Africa Principal components analysis Econometric models Vector analysis Finance -- Management -- South Africa Economic policy -- South Africa Banks and banking -- South Africa Investments -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1048 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1006197
- Description: Financial liberalization in South Africa was a process that took the form of various legal reforms very a long period of time. This study uses quarterly financial data from 1969 quarter one to 2009 quarter four to analyse this process. The data used was pertinent to the financial liberalization theorem by McKinnon (1973) and Shaw (1973). The examination of the relationships between the various macro economic variables has important implications for effective policy formulation. The empirical analysis is carried out in four phases: the preliminary analysis, the principal component analysis (PCA), the cointegration analysis and pair wise Granger causality tests. The preliminary analysis examines trends over the sample period and reports the on the correlation between the selected variables. The PCA analysis was used to create indexes for financial liberalization, taking into account the phase wise nature of legal reforms. The generated index was representative of the process of financial liberalization from 1969 to 2009. A financial development index was also created using the various traditional measures of financial development and through PCA which investigated interrelationships among the variables according to their common sources of movement. Cointegration analysis is carried out using the Johansen cointegration procedure which investigates whether there is long-run comovement between South African economic growth and the selected macroeconomic variables. Where cointegration is found, Vector Error-Correction Models (VECMs) are estimated in order to examine the short-run adjustments. For robustness, many control variables were added into the model. The results showed that there are positive long run relationships between economic growth and financial liberalization, financial development and a negative relationship with interest rates. The Granger results suggested that the MS hypothesis does not manifest accurately in the South African data. The implications of the results were that financial liberalization has had positive effects on economic growth and thus any impediments to full financial liberalization must be removed albeit with considerations towards employment and local productivity. Financial development also possessed positive long run relationships with economic growth, although results differed based on the financial development proxy used. Thus, financial development must be improved primarily through liberalizing the banking sector and spurring savings.
- Full Text:
- Authors: Savanhu, Tatenda
- Date: 2012
- Subjects: Economic development -- Case studies -- South Africa Principal components analysis Econometric models Vector analysis Finance -- Management -- South Africa Economic policy -- South Africa Banks and banking -- South Africa Investments -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1048 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1006197
- Description: Financial liberalization in South Africa was a process that took the form of various legal reforms very a long period of time. This study uses quarterly financial data from 1969 quarter one to 2009 quarter four to analyse this process. The data used was pertinent to the financial liberalization theorem by McKinnon (1973) and Shaw (1973). The examination of the relationships between the various macro economic variables has important implications for effective policy formulation. The empirical analysis is carried out in four phases: the preliminary analysis, the principal component analysis (PCA), the cointegration analysis and pair wise Granger causality tests. The preliminary analysis examines trends over the sample period and reports the on the correlation between the selected variables. The PCA analysis was used to create indexes for financial liberalization, taking into account the phase wise nature of legal reforms. The generated index was representative of the process of financial liberalization from 1969 to 2009. A financial development index was also created using the various traditional measures of financial development and through PCA which investigated interrelationships among the variables according to their common sources of movement. Cointegration analysis is carried out using the Johansen cointegration procedure which investigates whether there is long-run comovement between South African economic growth and the selected macroeconomic variables. Where cointegration is found, Vector Error-Correction Models (VECMs) are estimated in order to examine the short-run adjustments. For robustness, many control variables were added into the model. The results showed that there are positive long run relationships between economic growth and financial liberalization, financial development and a negative relationship with interest rates. The Granger results suggested that the MS hypothesis does not manifest accurately in the South African data. The implications of the results were that financial liberalization has had positive effects on economic growth and thus any impediments to full financial liberalization must be removed albeit with considerations towards employment and local productivity. Financial development also possessed positive long run relationships with economic growth, although results differed based on the financial development proxy used. Thus, financial development must be improved primarily through liberalizing the banking sector and spurring savings.
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Financial sector development and sectoral output growth evidence from South Africa
- Authors: Tongo, Yanga
- Date: 2012
- Subjects: Economic development -- South Africa Agriculture -- Economic aspects -- South Africa Mineral industries -- Economic aspects -- South Africa Manufacturing industries -- Economic aspects -- South Africa South Africa -- Economic conditions Autoregression (Statistics) Econometric models Stock exchanges -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1004 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002739
- Description: The goal of the study is to examine the relationship between financial sector development and output growth in the agricultural, mining and manufacturing sectors in South Africa. The analysis is based on the hypothesis that financial development is essential for promoting production growth in an economy. To test the hypothesis, in the South African context, the vector autoregressive model (VAR) framework and Granger causality test are applied to a quarterly data set starting from 1970 quarter one to 2009 quarter four. The results suggest that financial intermediary development (bank based measure) and stock market development (market based measure) have a positive impact on output growth in the agriculture, mining and manufacturing sectors in South Africa. There is evidence of a one way causal relationship between financial sector development and sectoral output growth. Particularly, there is evidence that financial intermediary development and stock market development causes output growth in the agriculture, mining and manufacturing sectors in South Africa. However, there is no evidence showing causality running from sectoral output growth to financial sector development. The results provide evidence supporting the theory which states that financial development is essential to promote output growth in a country i.e. in our case South Africa. Thus an efficient financial system which promotes efficient channeling of resources towards the agricultural, mining and manufacturing sectors should be built.
- Full Text:
- Authors: Tongo, Yanga
- Date: 2012
- Subjects: Economic development -- South Africa Agriculture -- Economic aspects -- South Africa Mineral industries -- Economic aspects -- South Africa Manufacturing industries -- Economic aspects -- South Africa South Africa -- Economic conditions Autoregression (Statistics) Econometric models Stock exchanges -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1004 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002739
- Description: The goal of the study is to examine the relationship between financial sector development and output growth in the agricultural, mining and manufacturing sectors in South Africa. The analysis is based on the hypothesis that financial development is essential for promoting production growth in an economy. To test the hypothesis, in the South African context, the vector autoregressive model (VAR) framework and Granger causality test are applied to a quarterly data set starting from 1970 quarter one to 2009 quarter four. The results suggest that financial intermediary development (bank based measure) and stock market development (market based measure) have a positive impact on output growth in the agriculture, mining and manufacturing sectors in South Africa. There is evidence of a one way causal relationship between financial sector development and sectoral output growth. Particularly, there is evidence that financial intermediary development and stock market development causes output growth in the agriculture, mining and manufacturing sectors in South Africa. However, there is no evidence showing causality running from sectoral output growth to financial sector development. The results provide evidence supporting the theory which states that financial development is essential to promote output growth in a country i.e. in our case South Africa. Thus an efficient financial system which promotes efficient channeling of resources towards the agricultural, mining and manufacturing sectors should be built.
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Interest rate pass-through in Cameroon and Nigeria: a comparative analysis
- Authors: Tita, Anthanasius Fomum
- Date: 2012
- Subjects: Interest rates -- Cameroon Interest rates -- Nigeria Interest rates -- Effect of inflation on -- Cameroon Interest rates -- Effect of inflation on -- Nigeria Interest rates -- Econometric models Cointegration Monetary policy -- Cameroon Monetary policy -- Nigeria Banque des états de l'Afrique centrale Banks and banking -- Cameroon Banks and banking -- Nigeria
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1005 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002740
- Description: One of the most important aspects of monetary policy is an understanding of the transmission process: the mechanism through which the monetary policy actions of the Central Bank impact on aggregate demand and prices by influencing the investment and consumption decisions of households and firms. Thus, commercial banks are regarded as conveyers of monetary policy shocks and are expected to adjust retail interest rates in response to policy shocks one-to-one. In practice, commercial banks adjust their retail rates in response to changes in monetary policy with a lag of several months and this delay is often viewed as an impediment on the ability of the Central Bank to steer the economy. Several reasons, such as credit rationing and adverse selection, switching costs, risk sharing, consumer irrationality, structure of the financial system, menu costs and asymmetric information are some of the causes advanced for commercial banks retail rates being sticky. In spite of the important role of pass-through analysis in the monetary policy transmission process, it has received very little attention in Sub-Saharan Africa, especially in Cameroon and Nigeria, which have implemented a series of reforms. To this end, this study gives a comparative analysis of interest rate pass-through in Nigeria and Cameroon using retail rates (lending and deposit) and a discount rate (policy rate) from January 1990 to December 2010 for Nigeria and from January 1990 to June 2008 for Cameroon. The study examines the magnitude and speed of retail rate adjustments to changes in the Central Bank policy rate as well as examining the possibility of symmetric and asymmetric pass-through in both countries. In addition, the study also investigates whether there is pass-through of monetary policy from one country to the other. The empirical analysis employs four different types of co-integration techniques to test the presence of a long run co-integrating relationship between retail and the policy rates in order to ensure that the relationship detected is robust. Three sets of analyses are carried out in the study. Following Cottarelli and Kourelis (1994), the study employed a co-integration technique, firstly, to analyse pass-through for the entire sample, secondly, to analyse symmetric and asymmetric pass-through using a ten year rolling window analysis in an error correction framework. Finally, the policy rates were swapped around to investigate if there are transmissions of impulses from one country to the other. Overall, evidence from the entire sample and rolling window analysis suggests that monetary policy in Cameroon is less effective. This is perhaps one of the reasons why the Banque Des Etats De L’Afrique Centrale (BEAC) is unable to sterilise the excess liquidity of the banking sector in Cameroon. The long run pass-through of 0.72 and 0.71 for the entire sample, and the average long run pass-through for the rolling window of 0.78 and 0.76 for the lending and deposit rates, suggest that monetary policy is highly effective in Nigeria compared to Cameroon. The empirical evidence confirmed asymmetric adjustment in six rolling windows in the lending rate in Nigeria. Three rolling windows indicated that the direction of rigidity is downward, supporting Scholnick’s (1996) collusive pricing arrangement between banks, and the other three suggested that the lending rate is rigid in the upward direction, corroborating Scholnick’s (1996) customer reaction hypothesis. The deposit rate in Cameroon was also found to adjust asymmetrically and the direction of rigidity is downward, supporting Hannan and Berger’s (1991) customer reaction hypothesis. The investigation of impulse transmission between the two countries revealed that only the policy rate in Nigeria exerts some influence on the deposit rate in Cameroon. Policy recommendations are also discussed.
- Full Text:
- Authors: Tita, Anthanasius Fomum
- Date: 2012
- Subjects: Interest rates -- Cameroon Interest rates -- Nigeria Interest rates -- Effect of inflation on -- Cameroon Interest rates -- Effect of inflation on -- Nigeria Interest rates -- Econometric models Cointegration Monetary policy -- Cameroon Monetary policy -- Nigeria Banque des états de l'Afrique centrale Banks and banking -- Cameroon Banks and banking -- Nigeria
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1005 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002740
- Description: One of the most important aspects of monetary policy is an understanding of the transmission process: the mechanism through which the monetary policy actions of the Central Bank impact on aggregate demand and prices by influencing the investment and consumption decisions of households and firms. Thus, commercial banks are regarded as conveyers of monetary policy shocks and are expected to adjust retail interest rates in response to policy shocks one-to-one. In practice, commercial banks adjust their retail rates in response to changes in monetary policy with a lag of several months and this delay is often viewed as an impediment on the ability of the Central Bank to steer the economy. Several reasons, such as credit rationing and adverse selection, switching costs, risk sharing, consumer irrationality, structure of the financial system, menu costs and asymmetric information are some of the causes advanced for commercial banks retail rates being sticky. In spite of the important role of pass-through analysis in the monetary policy transmission process, it has received very little attention in Sub-Saharan Africa, especially in Cameroon and Nigeria, which have implemented a series of reforms. To this end, this study gives a comparative analysis of interest rate pass-through in Nigeria and Cameroon using retail rates (lending and deposit) and a discount rate (policy rate) from January 1990 to December 2010 for Nigeria and from January 1990 to June 2008 for Cameroon. The study examines the magnitude and speed of retail rate adjustments to changes in the Central Bank policy rate as well as examining the possibility of symmetric and asymmetric pass-through in both countries. In addition, the study also investigates whether there is pass-through of monetary policy from one country to the other. The empirical analysis employs four different types of co-integration techniques to test the presence of a long run co-integrating relationship between retail and the policy rates in order to ensure that the relationship detected is robust. Three sets of analyses are carried out in the study. Following Cottarelli and Kourelis (1994), the study employed a co-integration technique, firstly, to analyse pass-through for the entire sample, secondly, to analyse symmetric and asymmetric pass-through using a ten year rolling window analysis in an error correction framework. Finally, the policy rates were swapped around to investigate if there are transmissions of impulses from one country to the other. Overall, evidence from the entire sample and rolling window analysis suggests that monetary policy in Cameroon is less effective. This is perhaps one of the reasons why the Banque Des Etats De L’Afrique Centrale (BEAC) is unable to sterilise the excess liquidity of the banking sector in Cameroon. The long run pass-through of 0.72 and 0.71 for the entire sample, and the average long run pass-through for the rolling window of 0.78 and 0.76 for the lending and deposit rates, suggest that monetary policy is highly effective in Nigeria compared to Cameroon. The empirical evidence confirmed asymmetric adjustment in six rolling windows in the lending rate in Nigeria. Three rolling windows indicated that the direction of rigidity is downward, supporting Scholnick’s (1996) collusive pricing arrangement between banks, and the other three suggested that the lending rate is rigid in the upward direction, corroborating Scholnick’s (1996) customer reaction hypothesis. The deposit rate in Cameroon was also found to adjust asymmetrically and the direction of rigidity is downward, supporting Hannan and Berger’s (1991) customer reaction hypothesis. The investigation of impulse transmission between the two countries revealed that only the policy rate in Nigeria exerts some influence on the deposit rate in Cameroon. Policy recommendations are also discussed.
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Investigating the impact of brand reputation on brand architecture strategies : a study on a South African automotive company
- Authors: Waddington, Andrew John
- Date: 2012
- Subjects: Branding (Marketing) -- Case studies Automobile industry and trade -- South Africa -- Case studies Toyota Jidōsha Kōgyō Kabushiki Kaisha -- Case studies Automobiles -- Marketing -- Case studies Product management -- Case studies Branding (Marketing) -- Management -- Case studies Corporate image -- Management -- Case studies Brand name products -- South Africa -- Case studies
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1179 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002796
- Description: The brand architecture of an organisation has become increasingly important to global management and marketing professionals, as it deals with structures and designs of brands which are constantly influenced by a changing environment. The market realities and changes brands face continuously impact the reputation of the brand, which is critical to sustain competitive advantage. The primary purpose of the study was to investigate the impact brand reputation has on brand architecture strategies, and an automotive company was chosen as the focus of the research. This research aims to help managers, marketers and brand owners make informative decisions regarding the brand architecture of a company. A quantitative content analysis methodology was used along with a webpage keyword counting application (WebWords). The application was used based on the principles outlined by Corporate Brand and Reputation Analysis (COBRA), which uses a four step progressive filtering process in filtering traditional and consumer generated media. The results from WebWords were then aligned to the brand architecture strategies from the brand relationship spectrum (BRS) to gain insight as to which of the strategies from the BRS were most vulnerable to reputational damage. The study found that the branded house and sub-brand strategies were most vulnerable to reputational damage based on the number reputational hits received. The connection between the master brand and the sub-brands could cause both brands to be affected should any reputational issues arise.
- Full Text:
- Authors: Waddington, Andrew John
- Date: 2012
- Subjects: Branding (Marketing) -- Case studies Automobile industry and trade -- South Africa -- Case studies Toyota Jidōsha Kōgyō Kabushiki Kaisha -- Case studies Automobiles -- Marketing -- Case studies Product management -- Case studies Branding (Marketing) -- Management -- Case studies Corporate image -- Management -- Case studies Brand name products -- South Africa -- Case studies
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1179 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002796
- Description: The brand architecture of an organisation has become increasingly important to global management and marketing professionals, as it deals with structures and designs of brands which are constantly influenced by a changing environment. The market realities and changes brands face continuously impact the reputation of the brand, which is critical to sustain competitive advantage. The primary purpose of the study was to investigate the impact brand reputation has on brand architecture strategies, and an automotive company was chosen as the focus of the research. This research aims to help managers, marketers and brand owners make informative decisions regarding the brand architecture of a company. A quantitative content analysis methodology was used along with a webpage keyword counting application (WebWords). The application was used based on the principles outlined by Corporate Brand and Reputation Analysis (COBRA), which uses a four step progressive filtering process in filtering traditional and consumer generated media. The results from WebWords were then aligned to the brand architecture strategies from the brand relationship spectrum (BRS) to gain insight as to which of the strategies from the BRS were most vulnerable to reputational damage. The study found that the branded house and sub-brand strategies were most vulnerable to reputational damage based on the number reputational hits received. The connection between the master brand and the sub-brands could cause both brands to be affected should any reputational issues arise.
- Full Text:
Macroeconomic determinants of stock market behaviour in South Africa
- Authors: Junkin, Kyle
- Date: 2012
- Subjects: Stocks -- Prices -- South Africa Macroeconomics Risk management -- South Africa Stock exchanges -- South Africa Interest rates -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1016 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002751
- Description: This study investigates whether stock prices in South Africa are influenced by macroeconomic variables, and furthermore, the effects of financial crises on stock prices. The relationship between stock prices and the macroeconomy is a particularly important issue for investors, since a thorough understanding of such a relationship is likely to yield profitable or risk mitigating opportunities. Using monthly data for the period 1995 to 2010 the study focused at a macro level using the FTSE/JSE All Share Index, and at a micro level using sector indices. These included the construction and materials, financial, food producers’, general retailers, industrial, mining and pharmaceuticals indices. The Johansen and Juselius (1990) multivariate cointegration approach was employed, along with impulse response and variance decomposition tests to address the issue. The results showed that macroeconomic variables do have a significant influence on stock prices in South Africa. Also, the influences of these variables were found to have an inconsistent effect across the sectors under investigation. For example, inflation was found to negatively influence the All Share Index, but impacted the industrial index positively. These inconsistent influences on the various sectors were seen to have important diversification implications for investors. The impact of past financial crises proved to be significant on certain indices, however, indices such as that of the pharmaceuticals sector was found to be largely unaffected by such crises. The findings of the study were discussed through an investor’s perspective, and recommendations on investment decisions were given. The limitations of the study were such that certain results may have been influenced by a mis-specification of variables, particularly the Treasury bill rate.
- Full Text:
- Authors: Junkin, Kyle
- Date: 2012
- Subjects: Stocks -- Prices -- South Africa Macroeconomics Risk management -- South Africa Stock exchanges -- South Africa Interest rates -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1016 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002751
- Description: This study investigates whether stock prices in South Africa are influenced by macroeconomic variables, and furthermore, the effects of financial crises on stock prices. The relationship between stock prices and the macroeconomy is a particularly important issue for investors, since a thorough understanding of such a relationship is likely to yield profitable or risk mitigating opportunities. Using monthly data for the period 1995 to 2010 the study focused at a macro level using the FTSE/JSE All Share Index, and at a micro level using sector indices. These included the construction and materials, financial, food producers’, general retailers, industrial, mining and pharmaceuticals indices. The Johansen and Juselius (1990) multivariate cointegration approach was employed, along with impulse response and variance decomposition tests to address the issue. The results showed that macroeconomic variables do have a significant influence on stock prices in South Africa. Also, the influences of these variables were found to have an inconsistent effect across the sectors under investigation. For example, inflation was found to negatively influence the All Share Index, but impacted the industrial index positively. These inconsistent influences on the various sectors were seen to have important diversification implications for investors. The impact of past financial crises proved to be significant on certain indices, however, indices such as that of the pharmaceuticals sector was found to be largely unaffected by such crises. The findings of the study were discussed through an investor’s perspective, and recommendations on investment decisions were given. The limitations of the study were such that certain results may have been influenced by a mis-specification of variables, particularly the Treasury bill rate.
- Full Text:
Optimistic science: the effectiveness of economic methodology in achieving objectivity
- Authors: Holl, Ryan
- Date: 2012
- Subjects: Economics -- Methodology , Social epistemology , Knowledge, Theory of -- Science , Objectivity -- Science , Science -- Methodology , Optimism
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1105 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1013393
- Description: This thesis examines the extent to which optimism has a bearing on objectivity in scientific inquiry. It is not, however, a psychological level examination into objectivity. Rather, the discussion focuses on collective attitudes, whether in the form of science or a more general public opinion. In essence, sources of optimism at the fundamental level of scientific inquiry are articulated with a careful attempt to differentiate between attitudes about the subject (methodology) and the object of study. The antithetical thread of optimism versus pessimism is teased out with the use of a joint case study of liberalism and Stalinism. The idea of antithesis, however, is contrasted by the fact that, although mirror image ideologies, these collective attitudes share a common faith in progress (albeit through different social mechanisms). This faith in progress provides the basis for the crux of the thesis as it moves to discuss scientific methodology. There is general agreement on what good science should look like and the possibility of progressive science can be articulated. However, it is also possible to highlight the conditions for degenerative science and to further link this to a degenerative social totality in which democracy and social progress are undermined. Economics is used as a case study and it is argued that dogmatic notions on progress have proved to be a major stumbling block to objectivity in the discipline. Furthermore, the implications on the real world are serious.
- Full Text:
- Authors: Holl, Ryan
- Date: 2012
- Subjects: Economics -- Methodology , Social epistemology , Knowledge, Theory of -- Science , Objectivity -- Science , Science -- Methodology , Optimism
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1105 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1013393
- Description: This thesis examines the extent to which optimism has a bearing on objectivity in scientific inquiry. It is not, however, a psychological level examination into objectivity. Rather, the discussion focuses on collective attitudes, whether in the form of science or a more general public opinion. In essence, sources of optimism at the fundamental level of scientific inquiry are articulated with a careful attempt to differentiate between attitudes about the subject (methodology) and the object of study. The antithetical thread of optimism versus pessimism is teased out with the use of a joint case study of liberalism and Stalinism. The idea of antithesis, however, is contrasted by the fact that, although mirror image ideologies, these collective attitudes share a common faith in progress (albeit through different social mechanisms). This faith in progress provides the basis for the crux of the thesis as it moves to discuss scientific methodology. There is general agreement on what good science should look like and the possibility of progressive science can be articulated. However, it is also possible to highlight the conditions for degenerative science and to further link this to a degenerative social totality in which democracy and social progress are undermined. Economics is used as a case study and it is argued that dogmatic notions on progress have proved to be a major stumbling block to objectivity in the discipline. Furthermore, the implications on the real world are serious.
- Full Text:
Perceptions of commerce graduates from a selected higher education institution
- Authors: Kaliika, Michael
- Date: 2012
- Subjects: Education, Higher -- Curricula -- South Africa -- Evaluation Business education -- Curricula -- South Africa -- Evaluation Business education graduates -- South Africa -- Attitudes
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1188 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1004358
- Description: The role of higher education in developing human capital and contributing to economic growth, competitive advantage and societal progress of any country is well documented. The direct link between the economic performance of a country and the level of education of its citizens cannot be repudiated. Furthermore, the demands of a growing economy, governmental pressure and the competitive international business environment have put pressure on South African businesses. This is aggravated by a “skills crisis” and the need to deliver more goods and services to increasingly more diverse customers. There is consensus amongst experts that the shortage of skills and high-level managerial human resources in South Africa constitute a major threat to the country’s future economic development and productivity growth. As the business world becomes increasingly sophisticated and challenging, so does the need to continuously review and assess the business qualifications that equip managers to cope with the challenges facing them. The competencies that come with a Commerce degree are relevant in every corner of society from managing successful private companies, public organisations, for governments to be able to contribute to the greatest good of society, to socially effective not- for- profit organisations. Despite the importance of a degree in Commerce there are some criticisms about the degree and Commerce graduates. The problem statement of this study is therefore vested in the continuum of praise and criticisms of Commerce graduates and the Commerce curriculum and, the reported imbalances between higher education institutions and the needs of the labour market. The question is whether such praise and criticisms are justified and whether higher education institutions specifically meet the requirements and expectations of both the graduates themselves and of business practice. The primary research objective of this study was, therefore, to obtain the opinions of Commerce graduates and Commerce graduate employers on the overall perception of Commerce graduates produced by a prominent HEI in the Eastern Cape Province in South iv Africa. To achieve this objective and based on in-depth analysis of secondary sources, two independent empirical surveys, aimed at two population strata were conducted, namely: • The Commerce graduates with known email addresses (N = 1 870) were extracted from the HEI’s alumni database. A total of 231 usable questionnaires were received from these Commerce graduates. • The employers with known addresses (N = 85) were extracted from the selected HEIs Career Centre database. A total of 47 usable questionnaires were received from the employers of the Commerce graduates. The main findings in this research pertain to aspects concerning core courses in the Commerce curriculum offered by the selected HEI, management skills and traits as required in the work environment, commerce curriculum outcomes and perceived experience as a student in the Faculty of Commerce at the selected HEI and Employer perceptions on the profile of the Commerce graduate. In this regard, the main findings are therefore summarised below: • Both graduates and employers assigned high relative importance scores to seventeen of the 19 core courses, supporting the multi-functionary interdisciplinary approach to the Commerce curriculum. Concerns were expressed by the Commerce graduates with the quality of tuition they had received in most of the core courses. Likewise, employers were not always satisfied with the Commerce graduates’ proficiency in some of the core courses, relative to the importance of core courses for running a business. • The Commerce graduates and employers strongly endorsed and supported the importance of the 43 management skills and traits in the work environment. Commerce graduates expressed concerns about the extent to which their management skills and traits had been developed through tuition. Concerns about the proficiency of the Commerce graduates in all the management skills and traits, relative to the importance in the work place, were conveyed by the employers. • On average the perceptions on the outcome of studies in the Faculty of Commerce were very highly regarded by the Commerce graduates. The highest mean score was for the item “Studying in the Faculty of Commerce contributed to an increase in my knowledge and abilities.”• The perceived experience of Commerce graduates as students in the Faculty of Commerce at the selected HEI was very highly regarded, implying that the selected HEI was meeting the expectations of its Commerce graduates. • Employer perceptions of what would constitute an ideal Commerce graduate were not fully met by the profile of the actual Commerce graduate from the selected HEI.
- Full Text:
- Authors: Kaliika, Michael
- Date: 2012
- Subjects: Education, Higher -- Curricula -- South Africa -- Evaluation Business education -- Curricula -- South Africa -- Evaluation Business education graduates -- South Africa -- Attitudes
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1188 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1004358
- Description: The role of higher education in developing human capital and contributing to economic growth, competitive advantage and societal progress of any country is well documented. The direct link between the economic performance of a country and the level of education of its citizens cannot be repudiated. Furthermore, the demands of a growing economy, governmental pressure and the competitive international business environment have put pressure on South African businesses. This is aggravated by a “skills crisis” and the need to deliver more goods and services to increasingly more diverse customers. There is consensus amongst experts that the shortage of skills and high-level managerial human resources in South Africa constitute a major threat to the country’s future economic development and productivity growth. As the business world becomes increasingly sophisticated and challenging, so does the need to continuously review and assess the business qualifications that equip managers to cope with the challenges facing them. The competencies that come with a Commerce degree are relevant in every corner of society from managing successful private companies, public organisations, for governments to be able to contribute to the greatest good of society, to socially effective not- for- profit organisations. Despite the importance of a degree in Commerce there are some criticisms about the degree and Commerce graduates. The problem statement of this study is therefore vested in the continuum of praise and criticisms of Commerce graduates and the Commerce curriculum and, the reported imbalances between higher education institutions and the needs of the labour market. The question is whether such praise and criticisms are justified and whether higher education institutions specifically meet the requirements and expectations of both the graduates themselves and of business practice. The primary research objective of this study was, therefore, to obtain the opinions of Commerce graduates and Commerce graduate employers on the overall perception of Commerce graduates produced by a prominent HEI in the Eastern Cape Province in South iv Africa. To achieve this objective and based on in-depth analysis of secondary sources, two independent empirical surveys, aimed at two population strata were conducted, namely: • The Commerce graduates with known email addresses (N = 1 870) were extracted from the HEI’s alumni database. A total of 231 usable questionnaires were received from these Commerce graduates. • The employers with known addresses (N = 85) were extracted from the selected HEIs Career Centre database. A total of 47 usable questionnaires were received from the employers of the Commerce graduates. The main findings in this research pertain to aspects concerning core courses in the Commerce curriculum offered by the selected HEI, management skills and traits as required in the work environment, commerce curriculum outcomes and perceived experience as a student in the Faculty of Commerce at the selected HEI and Employer perceptions on the profile of the Commerce graduate. In this regard, the main findings are therefore summarised below: • Both graduates and employers assigned high relative importance scores to seventeen of the 19 core courses, supporting the multi-functionary interdisciplinary approach to the Commerce curriculum. Concerns were expressed by the Commerce graduates with the quality of tuition they had received in most of the core courses. Likewise, employers were not always satisfied with the Commerce graduates’ proficiency in some of the core courses, relative to the importance of core courses for running a business. • The Commerce graduates and employers strongly endorsed and supported the importance of the 43 management skills and traits in the work environment. Commerce graduates expressed concerns about the extent to which their management skills and traits had been developed through tuition. Concerns about the proficiency of the Commerce graduates in all the management skills and traits, relative to the importance in the work place, were conveyed by the employers. • On average the perceptions on the outcome of studies in the Faculty of Commerce were very highly regarded by the Commerce graduates. The highest mean score was for the item “Studying in the Faculty of Commerce contributed to an increase in my knowledge and abilities.”• The perceived experience of Commerce graduates as students in the Faculty of Commerce at the selected HEI was very highly regarded, implying that the selected HEI was meeting the expectations of its Commerce graduates. • Employer perceptions of what would constitute an ideal Commerce graduate were not fully met by the profile of the actual Commerce graduate from the selected HEI.
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Performance of defensive shares on the JSE during financial crisis: evidence from analysis of returns and volatility
- Authors: Arguile, Wayne Peter
- Date: 2012
- Subjects: Industries -- South Africa -- Finance Industries -- South Africa -- Statistics Johannesburg Stock Exchange Rational expectations (Economic theory)
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1001 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002736
- Description: This study analyses whether historically defensive sectors on the JSE have – with respect to the market – proven to be defensive during the recent global financial crisis. By withstanding the shocks of market volatility, defensive industries (such as pharmaceuticals and consumer staples) are renowned for their consistent performance throughout the business cycle. Using daily data for the period 2000–2009, the study compares the descriptive statistics of sector returns before and during the crisis. The volatility of each sector relative to the market index is calculated using the CAPM beta and a simplified volatility ratio. The same comparison is extended to the conditional volatilities of each of the sectors, which is estimated using the GARCH model and two of its extensions: the EGARCH and GJR GARCH models. While no sector experienced a positive mean return during the financial crisis, Healthcare, Consumer Goods, Consumer Services and Industrials all proved less volatile than the market. Surprisingly, Telecommunications proved more volatile than the market and experienced leverage effects during the financial crisis. Since the timing of a recession is difficult to predict, defensive securities were found to be a useful investment tool for protection against adverse movements in the stock market.
- Full Text:
- Authors: Arguile, Wayne Peter
- Date: 2012
- Subjects: Industries -- South Africa -- Finance Industries -- South Africa -- Statistics Johannesburg Stock Exchange Rational expectations (Economic theory)
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1001 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002736
- Description: This study analyses whether historically defensive sectors on the JSE have – with respect to the market – proven to be defensive during the recent global financial crisis. By withstanding the shocks of market volatility, defensive industries (such as pharmaceuticals and consumer staples) are renowned for their consistent performance throughout the business cycle. Using daily data for the period 2000–2009, the study compares the descriptive statistics of sector returns before and during the crisis. The volatility of each sector relative to the market index is calculated using the CAPM beta and a simplified volatility ratio. The same comparison is extended to the conditional volatilities of each of the sectors, which is estimated using the GARCH model and two of its extensions: the EGARCH and GJR GARCH models. While no sector experienced a positive mean return during the financial crisis, Healthcare, Consumer Goods, Consumer Services and Industrials all proved less volatile than the market. Surprisingly, Telecommunications proved more volatile than the market and experienced leverage effects during the financial crisis. Since the timing of a recession is difficult to predict, defensive securities were found to be a useful investment tool for protection against adverse movements in the stock market.
- Full Text:
The implications of rural-urban migration on employment and household income with particular reference to Lesotho
- Authors: Damane, Moeti
- Date: 2012
- Subjects: Rural-urban migration -- Employment -- Lesotho Informal sector (Economics) -- Lesotho Lesotho -- Economic conditions
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1002 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002737
- Description: The research investigates the impact of internal rural - urban migration III Lesotho on household income and employment. Using data gathered from the 2002/03 household survey, the 2006 nationwide census and a questionnaire on rural - urban migration in Lesotho administered to 500 respondents in Maseru and Leribe, we estimate a logit model of the probability of employment in Lesotho in 2008 given a set of independent variables. The independent variables are respondent's work experience; years of education completed; employment status in 2004; employment status in 2008; gender; job skill level; place of residence in 2004 and a categorical variable that measures whether or not the respondent is a rural - urban migrant. The results suggest that migration and work experience have no significant impact on an individual's likelihood of being employed in the country's formal sector. Also, it was found that the higher the level of education an individual has, the less likely are their chances of employment in the country's formal sector because of the lack of formal jobs in the urban areas. Over 50% of Lesotho's workforce employed in the urban areas was discovered to work in the informal sector. The study concludes that there is a lack of jobs in Lesotho's urban formal sector that results in a thriving informal sector. The advantages of informal sector jobs to the rural - urban migrant include an increase in their standard of living as well as that of their family members left behind in the rural areas but the disadvantages include low levels of investor confidence that lead to a decrease in overall economic development and growth in the country.
- Full Text:
- Authors: Damane, Moeti
- Date: 2012
- Subjects: Rural-urban migration -- Employment -- Lesotho Informal sector (Economics) -- Lesotho Lesotho -- Economic conditions
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1002 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002737
- Description: The research investigates the impact of internal rural - urban migration III Lesotho on household income and employment. Using data gathered from the 2002/03 household survey, the 2006 nationwide census and a questionnaire on rural - urban migration in Lesotho administered to 500 respondents in Maseru and Leribe, we estimate a logit model of the probability of employment in Lesotho in 2008 given a set of independent variables. The independent variables are respondent's work experience; years of education completed; employment status in 2004; employment status in 2008; gender; job skill level; place of residence in 2004 and a categorical variable that measures whether or not the respondent is a rural - urban migrant. The results suggest that migration and work experience have no significant impact on an individual's likelihood of being employed in the country's formal sector. Also, it was found that the higher the level of education an individual has, the less likely are their chances of employment in the country's formal sector because of the lack of formal jobs in the urban areas. Over 50% of Lesotho's workforce employed in the urban areas was discovered to work in the informal sector. The study concludes that there is a lack of jobs in Lesotho's urban formal sector that results in a thriving informal sector. The advantages of informal sector jobs to the rural - urban migrant include an increase in their standard of living as well as that of their family members left behind in the rural areas but the disadvantages include low levels of investor confidence that lead to a decrease in overall economic development and growth in the country.
- Full Text:
The valuation of amounts for the purpose of inclusion in gross income
- Authors: Spearman, Tarryn Leigh
- Date: 2012
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:887 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1001641
- Description: The present research investigates the valuation of amounts for the purpose of inclusion in gross income. Because the gross income definition in section 1 of the Income Tax Act includes "amounts in cash or otherwise", valuations are often required in order to establish a value in money terms for amounts received or accrued in a form otherwise than in cash. The basis on which these valuations are made can vary and the courts have frequently been called upon to decide on the correct method of valuation. There has been an ongoing debate in the courts as to whether a strict objective approach or a more flexible subjective approach should be adopted when valuing an amount in a form other than cash, which was finally settled in the decision by the Supreme Court of Appeal in CIR v Brummeria Renaissance (Pty) Ltd, which held that an objective approach must be followed. The present research will demonstrate how the strict rule of interpretation tends to result in purely objective valuations as it requires that the ordinary grammatical meaning of words be applied and does not allow the court to consider the purpose of the legislation or introduce any subjectivity based on the circumstances of each individual taxpayer and the facts of each particular case, which a purposive interpretation approach does. The purposive approach to interpretation is therefore more closely aligned with the subjective approach to valuation. Both the objective and subjective approaches to valuation have advantages and disadvantages, which are addressed in the research. The need for certainty in taxation was articulated as early as 1776 by Adam Smith in his Wealth of Nations. The objective approach appears to create a level of consistency as all income received by a taxpayer is effectively taxed as if received by a third party in an arm’s length transaction. The approach has led to unfair decisions at odds with economic reality and generally accepted accounting principles, which could be challenged on the basis of a lack of equity and fairness as required by the Constitution of the Republic of South Africa. The research demonstrates that an objective method of valuation is neither fully objective nor appropriate in certain circumstances, while a subjective approach may be more appropriate as it ensures that each taxpayer’s individual rights are protected. Although the subjective approach successfully addresses the issue of fairness, it threatens to introduce an unacceptable level of inconsistency and is, in reality, not always administratively feasible. The present research concludes that a trade-off between fairness and consistency is often necessary.
- Full Text:
- Authors: Spearman, Tarryn Leigh
- Date: 2012
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:887 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1001641
- Description: The present research investigates the valuation of amounts for the purpose of inclusion in gross income. Because the gross income definition in section 1 of the Income Tax Act includes "amounts in cash or otherwise", valuations are often required in order to establish a value in money terms for amounts received or accrued in a form otherwise than in cash. The basis on which these valuations are made can vary and the courts have frequently been called upon to decide on the correct method of valuation. There has been an ongoing debate in the courts as to whether a strict objective approach or a more flexible subjective approach should be adopted when valuing an amount in a form other than cash, which was finally settled in the decision by the Supreme Court of Appeal in CIR v Brummeria Renaissance (Pty) Ltd, which held that an objective approach must be followed. The present research will demonstrate how the strict rule of interpretation tends to result in purely objective valuations as it requires that the ordinary grammatical meaning of words be applied and does not allow the court to consider the purpose of the legislation or introduce any subjectivity based on the circumstances of each individual taxpayer and the facts of each particular case, which a purposive interpretation approach does. The purposive approach to interpretation is therefore more closely aligned with the subjective approach to valuation. Both the objective and subjective approaches to valuation have advantages and disadvantages, which are addressed in the research. The need for certainty in taxation was articulated as early as 1776 by Adam Smith in his Wealth of Nations. The objective approach appears to create a level of consistency as all income received by a taxpayer is effectively taxed as if received by a third party in an arm’s length transaction. The approach has led to unfair decisions at odds with economic reality and generally accepted accounting principles, which could be challenged on the basis of a lack of equity and fairness as required by the Constitution of the Republic of South Africa. The research demonstrates that an objective method of valuation is neither fully objective nor appropriate in certain circumstances, while a subjective approach may be more appropriate as it ensures that each taxpayer’s individual rights are protected. Although the subjective approach successfully addresses the issue of fairness, it threatens to introduce an unacceptable level of inconsistency and is, in reality, not always administratively feasible. The present research concludes that a trade-off between fairness and consistency is often necessary.
- Full Text:
A critical analysis of the socioeconomic impact assessments of the Addo Elephant National Park
- Authors: Rose, Matthew Calvin
- Date: 2011
- Subjects: Addo Elephant National Park (South Africa) South African National Parks Economic impact analysis -- South Africa -- Addo Elephant National Park Environmental impact analysis -- South Africa -- Addo Elephant National Park
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:964 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002698
- Description: Impact assessment is a requirement for development in many countries across the globe, seeking to inform the decision-maker as to the environmental, social and economic impact of an ongoing or proposed project. Socioeconomic impact assessment (SEIA) is a means of informing decision-makers as to the socioeconomic effects a project could have, or is having, thus contributing to informing adaptive management practices. However, the tendency of socioeconomic impact assessment to highly quantitative economic methods of analysis raises the question of whether the desired results are achieved by the process. The purpose of the research was to determine whether highly quantitative forms of economic analysis are suitable for measurement of impacts in a social context where distributive as well as net impact is important; to critically analyze the method utilized in achieving highly quantitative economic impact assessment results; and lastly to draw conclusions and make recommendations regarding the efficacy of monitoring processes used to inform adaptive management practices. The research was conducted by means of a case study focusing on three SEIAs carried out on the same entity, namely the Addo Elephant National Park. Managed by South African National Parks (SANP), it began expanding its borders in the early 2000s. Funded by the World Bank, SANP was required to carry out a comprehensive Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) in 2003 to ensure the expansion did not have negative environmental, social and economic repercussions, and where such consequences were unavoidable, to ensure that mitigation and management thereof was informed by useful monitoring exercises. Given the need for resettlement and issues of economic distributive concern raised in the 2003 SEA, the three socioeconomic impact assessments conducted from 2005 – 2010 as part of the ongoing monitoring exercises formed an ideal framework for answering the primary research questions. The findings indicate that despite consistent terms of reference, different assessors interpret mandates from the commissioning body in different ways, leading to varied applications of the same theory, some methodologically better than others. Economic multiplier analysis was found to be inadequate as a measure of the distributive effects of economic impact. Moreover, a lack of consistency, accountability and transparency in the monitoring process led to three sets of results that were incomparable over time and thus inadequate as a means to inform adaptive management practices. Asymmetries of and between power and expertise in the commissioning body and the assessors led to breakdowns of the assessment process in terms of accountability and integrity and resulted in a failure to properly define the scope of the study and measure the relevant indicators. The following recommendations were made: that the economic multiplier method be complemented by additional methods of analysis when utilized in disparate social contexts where distribution of economic benefit is important; that monitoring practices be systematized at an early stage of the process to ensure comparable results useful in informing ongoing management practices; and that what an assessment measures and how it measures it be clarified with reference to an objective source. Finally, the number of factors for consideration in any impact assessment means that measurement of the full picture suffers resource constraints, emphasizing the need for impact assessment oversight to recognize the deficiencies of the process whilst still acknowledging that ‘some number is better than no number’.
- Full Text:
- Authors: Rose, Matthew Calvin
- Date: 2011
- Subjects: Addo Elephant National Park (South Africa) South African National Parks Economic impact analysis -- South Africa -- Addo Elephant National Park Environmental impact analysis -- South Africa -- Addo Elephant National Park
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:964 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002698
- Description: Impact assessment is a requirement for development in many countries across the globe, seeking to inform the decision-maker as to the environmental, social and economic impact of an ongoing or proposed project. Socioeconomic impact assessment (SEIA) is a means of informing decision-makers as to the socioeconomic effects a project could have, or is having, thus contributing to informing adaptive management practices. However, the tendency of socioeconomic impact assessment to highly quantitative economic methods of analysis raises the question of whether the desired results are achieved by the process. The purpose of the research was to determine whether highly quantitative forms of economic analysis are suitable for measurement of impacts in a social context where distributive as well as net impact is important; to critically analyze the method utilized in achieving highly quantitative economic impact assessment results; and lastly to draw conclusions and make recommendations regarding the efficacy of monitoring processes used to inform adaptive management practices. The research was conducted by means of a case study focusing on three SEIAs carried out on the same entity, namely the Addo Elephant National Park. Managed by South African National Parks (SANP), it began expanding its borders in the early 2000s. Funded by the World Bank, SANP was required to carry out a comprehensive Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) in 2003 to ensure the expansion did not have negative environmental, social and economic repercussions, and where such consequences were unavoidable, to ensure that mitigation and management thereof was informed by useful monitoring exercises. Given the need for resettlement and issues of economic distributive concern raised in the 2003 SEA, the three socioeconomic impact assessments conducted from 2005 – 2010 as part of the ongoing monitoring exercises formed an ideal framework for answering the primary research questions. The findings indicate that despite consistent terms of reference, different assessors interpret mandates from the commissioning body in different ways, leading to varied applications of the same theory, some methodologically better than others. Economic multiplier analysis was found to be inadequate as a measure of the distributive effects of economic impact. Moreover, a lack of consistency, accountability and transparency in the monitoring process led to three sets of results that were incomparable over time and thus inadequate as a means to inform adaptive management practices. Asymmetries of and between power and expertise in the commissioning body and the assessors led to breakdowns of the assessment process in terms of accountability and integrity and resulted in a failure to properly define the scope of the study and measure the relevant indicators. The following recommendations were made: that the economic multiplier method be complemented by additional methods of analysis when utilized in disparate social contexts where distribution of economic benefit is important; that monitoring practices be systematized at an early stage of the process to ensure comparable results useful in informing ongoing management practices; and that what an assessment measures and how it measures it be clarified with reference to an objective source. Finally, the number of factors for consideration in any impact assessment means that measurement of the full picture suffers resource constraints, emphasizing the need for impact assessment oversight to recognize the deficiencies of the process whilst still acknowledging that ‘some number is better than no number’.
- Full Text:
A regulationist approach to South Africa and a critique of inflation targeting
- Authors: Bax, Ryan Michael Jonathan
- Date: 2011
- Subjects: Inflation (Finance) -- South Africa International finance Economic development -- South Africa Sustainable development -- South Africa Inflation targeting -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1036 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1004533
- Description: Since the 1970s, the international economic system has become prone to the volatility and undue effects associated with booms and busts. This forty year period spanning the present has exhibited restrained growth and repressive economic development. Critical changes to the system are presented by the transition from "Fordism" to the post 1970s neoliberal regime and the globalization of world markets. Underpinning this transformation is an ideological shift towards free market capitalism and the adoption of "reduced form" market models. These "reduced form" models appear to hinder economic sustainability as their grounding in economics fails to account for real economic activity. This thesis aims to provide a more holistic perception of sustainability, one that provides a sound basis on which to develop sustainable economic policy. The Regulationist Approach presents the requisite understanding of economic sustainability required within this research. The inclusion of economic, historical and socio-political fields of research proposes a wider understanding of the political economy and sustainability. The application of the Regulation Approach to the South African economy illustrates many problem areas that require attention. The examination found that firstly, aggregate demand in the South African economy was unsustainable due to the debt driven nature of demand under the asset price bubble of the mid to late 2000s. Secondly, aggregate supply also proved unsustainable as government is failing to provide any substantive growth within important sectors of the economy such as education and the provision of general services. Furthermore, the adoption of inflation targeting in South Africa poses a barrier to sustained economic growth as it focuses singularly on price inflation. The "reduced form" model of inflation targeting fails to account for market failures and a number of vital indicators of sustainability most notably, debt levels and asset prices. The inclusion of these indicators, and financial stability more generally, are found to provide a more holistic and sustainable approach to macroeconomic policymaking.
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- Authors: Bax, Ryan Michael Jonathan
- Date: 2011
- Subjects: Inflation (Finance) -- South Africa International finance Economic development -- South Africa Sustainable development -- South Africa Inflation targeting -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1036 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1004533
- Description: Since the 1970s, the international economic system has become prone to the volatility and undue effects associated with booms and busts. This forty year period spanning the present has exhibited restrained growth and repressive economic development. Critical changes to the system are presented by the transition from "Fordism" to the post 1970s neoliberal regime and the globalization of world markets. Underpinning this transformation is an ideological shift towards free market capitalism and the adoption of "reduced form" market models. These "reduced form" models appear to hinder economic sustainability as their grounding in economics fails to account for real economic activity. This thesis aims to provide a more holistic perception of sustainability, one that provides a sound basis on which to develop sustainable economic policy. The Regulationist Approach presents the requisite understanding of economic sustainability required within this research. The inclusion of economic, historical and socio-political fields of research proposes a wider understanding of the political economy and sustainability. The application of the Regulation Approach to the South African economy illustrates many problem areas that require attention. The examination found that firstly, aggregate demand in the South African economy was unsustainable due to the debt driven nature of demand under the asset price bubble of the mid to late 2000s. Secondly, aggregate supply also proved unsustainable as government is failing to provide any substantive growth within important sectors of the economy such as education and the provision of general services. Furthermore, the adoption of inflation targeting in South Africa poses a barrier to sustained economic growth as it focuses singularly on price inflation. The "reduced form" model of inflation targeting fails to account for market failures and a number of vital indicators of sustainability most notably, debt levels and asset prices. The inclusion of these indicators, and financial stability more generally, are found to provide a more holistic and sustainable approach to macroeconomic policymaking.
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Adjustment of commercial banks' interest rates and the effectiveness of monetary policy: evidence from Anglophone West Africa
- Authors: Bangura, Lamin
- Date: 2011
- Subjects: Monetary policy -- Africa, West , Banks and banking -- Africa, West , Interest rates -- Africa, West
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:951 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002685 , Monetary policy -- Africa, West , Banks and banking -- Africa, West , Interest rates -- Africa, West
- Description: Most central banks use short-term interest rates as their main instrument of monetary policy. It is assumed that a change in policy rate will influence interest rates set by commercial banks, but this is not usually the case. Commercial banks adjust their interest rates in response to changes in policy rate with lags, which make their interest rates sticky. Stickiness in commercial banks interest rates have been seen as an obstacle to the smooth transmission of monetary policy decisions. Despite the importance of the transmission process, little attention has been given to a systematic measurement of the degree of response of commercial banks‟ interest rates to changes in monetary policy stance in the Anglophone West African countries, specifically within the West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ) economies. Against this backdrop, this study explores the interest rate adjustment dynamics using monthly interest rate series on discount rate, treasury bill rate, commercial banks‟ deposit and lending rates from 1989 to 2009 (for Gambia, Nigeria and Sierra Leone) and from 2000 to 2009 (for Ghana). Specifically, the study set out to examine how lending and deposit rates respond to changes in the official rates and to see whether there is a convergence among the rates over time. Also, to examine the relative adjustment of commercial bank lending rates to changes in the official rate when there is disequilibrium. The analyses were twofold: a full sample period and a rolling window analysis. Following Cottarelli and Kourelis (1994), the study employed cointegration technique and an asymmetric error correction model to obtain the short-run and long-run parameters from which the error correction coefficients, mean adjustment lags and asymmetric mean adjustment lags were estimated. The results for the entire sample period revealed that the long-run pass-through in Nigeria was 81% and 67% for lending rates and deposit rates respectively. In Ghana, it was 66% and 69% for lending and deposit rates respectively. While in Sierra Leone, long-run pass-through was 62% and 72% for lending and deposit rates respectively. In Gambia, it was 50% and 40% for lending and deposit rates respectively. On the other hand, the short-run pass-through was found to be lower compared to the long-run pass-through: in Nigeria it was 66% and 47%; in Gambia, 26% and 29%; in Sierra Leone, 30% and 13%; and in Ghana, -6% and 35% for lending and deposit rates respectively in each country. The pass-through estimates for the rolling windows were mixed for short-run and long-run pass-through. The mean adjustment lags suggest that the speed of adjustment of Lending rates for full sample period were two, two, seven and twelve months in Nigeria, Ghana, Sierra Leone and Gambia respectively. While for deposit rates they were five, six, seven and eighteen for Ghana, Nigeria, Gambia and Sierra Leone respectively. The average speeds of adjustment for the rolling windows were four and five months for lending and deposit rates respectively. Weak evidence of convergence was found in lending and deposit rates in the short-run and long-run pass-through among the countries. However, the results suggest that the magnitude and speed of the pass-through amongst the countries on average were high compared to emerging Asian countries. Significant asymmetric adjustments were found in the lending rates for Gambia and Sierra Leone, while in Gambia and Nigeria there were asymmetries in deposit rates. Based on the evidence provided, interest rate pass-through is high in Nigeria and Ghana compared to Gambia and Sierra Leone and this calls for the harmonization of financial policies on the part of the financial authorities in the WAMZ. Viewed solely from an interest rate pass-through, the lack of convergence among the countries suggests that WAMZ is far from ready for a monetary union. The relatively low pass-through in some of the countries suggests rigidity in the banking system which may be due to underdevelopment of the system. Thus efforts geared toward strengthening the banking system and the financial system as whole would further enhance the prospect of a monetary union among them.
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- Authors: Bangura, Lamin
- Date: 2011
- Subjects: Monetary policy -- Africa, West , Banks and banking -- Africa, West , Interest rates -- Africa, West
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:951 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002685 , Monetary policy -- Africa, West , Banks and banking -- Africa, West , Interest rates -- Africa, West
- Description: Most central banks use short-term interest rates as their main instrument of monetary policy. It is assumed that a change in policy rate will influence interest rates set by commercial banks, but this is not usually the case. Commercial banks adjust their interest rates in response to changes in policy rate with lags, which make their interest rates sticky. Stickiness in commercial banks interest rates have been seen as an obstacle to the smooth transmission of monetary policy decisions. Despite the importance of the transmission process, little attention has been given to a systematic measurement of the degree of response of commercial banks‟ interest rates to changes in monetary policy stance in the Anglophone West African countries, specifically within the West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ) economies. Against this backdrop, this study explores the interest rate adjustment dynamics using monthly interest rate series on discount rate, treasury bill rate, commercial banks‟ deposit and lending rates from 1989 to 2009 (for Gambia, Nigeria and Sierra Leone) and from 2000 to 2009 (for Ghana). Specifically, the study set out to examine how lending and deposit rates respond to changes in the official rates and to see whether there is a convergence among the rates over time. Also, to examine the relative adjustment of commercial bank lending rates to changes in the official rate when there is disequilibrium. The analyses were twofold: a full sample period and a rolling window analysis. Following Cottarelli and Kourelis (1994), the study employed cointegration technique and an asymmetric error correction model to obtain the short-run and long-run parameters from which the error correction coefficients, mean adjustment lags and asymmetric mean adjustment lags were estimated. The results for the entire sample period revealed that the long-run pass-through in Nigeria was 81% and 67% for lending rates and deposit rates respectively. In Ghana, it was 66% and 69% for lending and deposit rates respectively. While in Sierra Leone, long-run pass-through was 62% and 72% for lending and deposit rates respectively. In Gambia, it was 50% and 40% for lending and deposit rates respectively. On the other hand, the short-run pass-through was found to be lower compared to the long-run pass-through: in Nigeria it was 66% and 47%; in Gambia, 26% and 29%; in Sierra Leone, 30% and 13%; and in Ghana, -6% and 35% for lending and deposit rates respectively in each country. The pass-through estimates for the rolling windows were mixed for short-run and long-run pass-through. The mean adjustment lags suggest that the speed of adjustment of Lending rates for full sample period were two, two, seven and twelve months in Nigeria, Ghana, Sierra Leone and Gambia respectively. While for deposit rates they were five, six, seven and eighteen for Ghana, Nigeria, Gambia and Sierra Leone respectively. The average speeds of adjustment for the rolling windows were four and five months for lending and deposit rates respectively. Weak evidence of convergence was found in lending and deposit rates in the short-run and long-run pass-through among the countries. However, the results suggest that the magnitude and speed of the pass-through amongst the countries on average were high compared to emerging Asian countries. Significant asymmetric adjustments were found in the lending rates for Gambia and Sierra Leone, while in Gambia and Nigeria there were asymmetries in deposit rates. Based on the evidence provided, interest rate pass-through is high in Nigeria and Ghana compared to Gambia and Sierra Leone and this calls for the harmonization of financial policies on the part of the financial authorities in the WAMZ. Viewed solely from an interest rate pass-through, the lack of convergence among the countries suggests that WAMZ is far from ready for a monetary union. The relatively low pass-through in some of the countries suggests rigidity in the banking system which may be due to underdevelopment of the system. Thus efforts geared toward strengthening the banking system and the financial system as whole would further enhance the prospect of a monetary union among them.
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An analysis of the influence of domestic macroeconomic variables on the performance of the South African stock market sectoral indices
- Authors: Hancocks, Ryan Lee
- Date: 2011
- Subjects: Johannesburg Stock Exchange , Stock price indexes -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Macroeconomics -- Econometric models
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:954
- Description: An econometric study was undertaken to determine the extent to which selected macroeconomic variables influenced stock market prices on the All-Share, Financial, Mining and Retail Indices of the Johannesburg Stock Exchange in South Africa from 1996:7 to 2008:12. The Johansen cointegration method was used to determine whether cointegrating relationships existed between the macroeconomic variables and the stock market indices. A Vector Error Correction model was estimated and found significant results that money supply, inflation, long and short- run interest rates, and the exchange rate all had an influence on stock market prices. Further, the VECM results for each sector indicated that certain macroeconomic variables had differing influences on each sector of the stock market. Impulse Response tests indicated that the selected macroeconomic variables caused shock to the sectoral indices in the short-run but that the effect was lagged. The Variance Decomposition tests conducted supported earlier evidence that the macroeconomic variables had a strong level of sectoral index determinacy in the long run. The results found that the All-Share and Financial Indices were negatively influenced by inflation and short term interest rates in the long run, while the Financial Index also had a negative relationship with long-run interest rates. Money supply was found to have a positive effect on all the indices. A weakening of the exchange rate was found to have a positive influence on both the Retail and Mining Indices, while it negatively affected the All-Share and Financial Indices. The long-run interest rate had a positive influence on both the Retail and Mining Indices. Overall the study finds that macroeconomic variables are important determinants of stock market prices in South Africa and that it is important to examine each sector of the stock market separately to capture what are different effects. The limitations of the study are that a different measure for exchange rates from the nominal rand/dollar exchange rate used here may yield more decisive results and provide insight into the link between exchange rate behaviour and performance of especially the retail sector.
- Full Text:
- Authors: Hancocks, Ryan Lee
- Date: 2011
- Subjects: Johannesburg Stock Exchange , Stock price indexes -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Macroeconomics -- Econometric models
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:954
- Description: An econometric study was undertaken to determine the extent to which selected macroeconomic variables influenced stock market prices on the All-Share, Financial, Mining and Retail Indices of the Johannesburg Stock Exchange in South Africa from 1996:7 to 2008:12. The Johansen cointegration method was used to determine whether cointegrating relationships existed between the macroeconomic variables and the stock market indices. A Vector Error Correction model was estimated and found significant results that money supply, inflation, long and short- run interest rates, and the exchange rate all had an influence on stock market prices. Further, the VECM results for each sector indicated that certain macroeconomic variables had differing influences on each sector of the stock market. Impulse Response tests indicated that the selected macroeconomic variables caused shock to the sectoral indices in the short-run but that the effect was lagged. The Variance Decomposition tests conducted supported earlier evidence that the macroeconomic variables had a strong level of sectoral index determinacy in the long run. The results found that the All-Share and Financial Indices were negatively influenced by inflation and short term interest rates in the long run, while the Financial Index also had a negative relationship with long-run interest rates. Money supply was found to have a positive effect on all the indices. A weakening of the exchange rate was found to have a positive influence on both the Retail and Mining Indices, while it negatively affected the All-Share and Financial Indices. The long-run interest rate had a positive influence on both the Retail and Mining Indices. Overall the study finds that macroeconomic variables are important determinants of stock market prices in South Africa and that it is important to examine each sector of the stock market separately to capture what are different effects. The limitations of the study are that a different measure for exchange rates from the nominal rand/dollar exchange rate used here may yield more decisive results and provide insight into the link between exchange rate behaviour and performance of especially the retail sector.
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An analysis of the long run comovements between financial system development and mining production in South Africa
- Authors: Ajagbe, Stephen Mayowa
- Date: 2011
- Subjects: Economic development -- South Africa , Econometric models , Mineral industries -- Economic aspects -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic conditions , South Africa -- Economic policy , Principal components analysis , Cointegration , Stock exchanges -- South Africa , Banks and banking -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:955 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002689 , Economic development -- South Africa , Econometric models , Mineral industries -- Economic aspects -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic conditions , South Africa -- Economic policy , Principal components analysis , Cointegration , Stock exchanges -- South Africa , Banks and banking -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates
- Description: This study examines the nature of the relationship which exists between mining sector production and development of the financial systems in South Africa. This is particularly important in that the mining sector is considered to be one of the major contributors to the country’s overall economic growth. South Africa is also considered to have a very well developed financial system, to the point where the dominance of one over the other is difficult to identify. Therefore offering insight into the nature of this relationship will assist policy makers in identifying the most effective policies in order to ensure that the developments within the financial systems impact appropriately on the mining sector, and ultimately on the economy. In addition to using the conventional proxies of financial system development, this study utilises the principal component analysis (PCA) to construct an index for the entire financial system. The multivariate cointegration approach as proposed by Johansen (1988) and Johansen and Juselius (1990) was then used to estimate the relationship between the development of the financial systems and the mining sector production for the period 1988-2008. The study reveals mixed results for different measures of financial system development. Those involving the banking system show that a negative relationship exists between total mining production and total credit extended to the private sector, while liquid liabilities has a positive relationship. Similarly, with the stock market system, mixed results are also obtained which reveal a negative relationship between total mining production and stock market capitalisation, while a positive relationship is found with secondary market turnover. Of all the financial system variables, only that of stock market capitalisation was found to be significant. The result with the financial development index reveals that a significant negative relationship exists between financial system development and total mining sector production. Results on the other variables controlled in the estimation show that positive and significant relationships exist between total mining production and both nominal exchange rate and political stability respectively. Increased mining production therefore takes place in periods of appreciating exchange rates, and similarly in the post-apartheid era. On the other hand, negative relationships were found for both trade openness and inflation control variables. The impulse response and variance decomposition analyses showed that total mining production explains the largest amount of shocks within itself. Overall, the study reveals that the mining sector might not have benefited much from the development in the South African financial system.
- Full Text:
- Authors: Ajagbe, Stephen Mayowa
- Date: 2011
- Subjects: Economic development -- South Africa , Econometric models , Mineral industries -- Economic aspects -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic conditions , South Africa -- Economic policy , Principal components analysis , Cointegration , Stock exchanges -- South Africa , Banks and banking -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:955 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002689 , Economic development -- South Africa , Econometric models , Mineral industries -- Economic aspects -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic conditions , South Africa -- Economic policy , Principal components analysis , Cointegration , Stock exchanges -- South Africa , Banks and banking -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates
- Description: This study examines the nature of the relationship which exists between mining sector production and development of the financial systems in South Africa. This is particularly important in that the mining sector is considered to be one of the major contributors to the country’s overall economic growth. South Africa is also considered to have a very well developed financial system, to the point where the dominance of one over the other is difficult to identify. Therefore offering insight into the nature of this relationship will assist policy makers in identifying the most effective policies in order to ensure that the developments within the financial systems impact appropriately on the mining sector, and ultimately on the economy. In addition to using the conventional proxies of financial system development, this study utilises the principal component analysis (PCA) to construct an index for the entire financial system. The multivariate cointegration approach as proposed by Johansen (1988) and Johansen and Juselius (1990) was then used to estimate the relationship between the development of the financial systems and the mining sector production for the period 1988-2008. The study reveals mixed results for different measures of financial system development. Those involving the banking system show that a negative relationship exists between total mining production and total credit extended to the private sector, while liquid liabilities has a positive relationship. Similarly, with the stock market system, mixed results are also obtained which reveal a negative relationship between total mining production and stock market capitalisation, while a positive relationship is found with secondary market turnover. Of all the financial system variables, only that of stock market capitalisation was found to be significant. The result with the financial development index reveals that a significant negative relationship exists between financial system development and total mining sector production. Results on the other variables controlled in the estimation show that positive and significant relationships exist between total mining production and both nominal exchange rate and political stability respectively. Increased mining production therefore takes place in periods of appreciating exchange rates, and similarly in the post-apartheid era. On the other hand, negative relationships were found for both trade openness and inflation control variables. The impulse response and variance decomposition analyses showed that total mining production explains the largest amount of shocks within itself. Overall, the study reveals that the mining sector might not have benefited much from the development in the South African financial system.
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An investigation into international transfer pricing guidelines and the anomalies arising from business restructurings by multi-national enterprises
- Authors: Stelloh, Marcus Matthias
- Date: 2011
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:879 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1001633
- Description: The number of multinational enterprises has increased substantially. In part due to the integration of national economies (the European Union), improvements in communication and technology and the opportunity to reduce costs as a result of globalisation. Transfer pricing and especially business restructuring within multinationals is a fairly new concept.Professional legal and audit firms have different views on how to approach business restructurings. This research analyses important transfer pricing aspects and the anomalies that arise through business restructurings. The research method used in this research paper is primarily qualitative, comprising the analysis of various documentary sources of data. Relevant South African and international case law, tax legislation, the OECD Transfer Pricing Guidelines for Multinational Enterprises and Tax Administrations, the Transfer Pricing Aspects of Business Restructurings Discussion Draft and other reports were consulted and analysed. Further the views of recognised legal and tax experts that have been published in technical journals and text books were also considered and examined. A hypothetical example of a business restructuring transaction was constructed in order to illustrate practical issues and different approaches to solving them. The research has argued that the arm’s length principle, which forms the bases of transfer pricing regulation, is not an exact science but theoretically it is the most suitable measure.It may not be able to incorporate all variables, such as the cost savings through synergies of multinational enterprises, but it promotes international trade and investment by ensuring that transactions are based on fair prices. Business restructurings create anomalies in applying the arm’s length principle but these anomalies can be dealt with within the regulatory structure. The business restructuring approach recommended is realistic and pragmatic, but more clarity may be needed in certain circumstances. The research has also discussed the avoidance of transfer pricing audits, including having appropriate transfer pricing policies and documentation.
- Full Text:
- Authors: Stelloh, Marcus Matthias
- Date: 2011
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:879 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1001633
- Description: The number of multinational enterprises has increased substantially. In part due to the integration of national economies (the European Union), improvements in communication and technology and the opportunity to reduce costs as a result of globalisation. Transfer pricing and especially business restructuring within multinationals is a fairly new concept.Professional legal and audit firms have different views on how to approach business restructurings. This research analyses important transfer pricing aspects and the anomalies that arise through business restructurings. The research method used in this research paper is primarily qualitative, comprising the analysis of various documentary sources of data. Relevant South African and international case law, tax legislation, the OECD Transfer Pricing Guidelines for Multinational Enterprises and Tax Administrations, the Transfer Pricing Aspects of Business Restructurings Discussion Draft and other reports were consulted and analysed. Further the views of recognised legal and tax experts that have been published in technical journals and text books were also considered and examined. A hypothetical example of a business restructuring transaction was constructed in order to illustrate practical issues and different approaches to solving them. The research has argued that the arm’s length principle, which forms the bases of transfer pricing regulation, is not an exact science but theoretically it is the most suitable measure.It may not be able to incorporate all variables, such as the cost savings through synergies of multinational enterprises, but it promotes international trade and investment by ensuring that transactions are based on fair prices. Business restructurings create anomalies in applying the arm’s length principle but these anomalies can be dealt with within the regulatory structure. The business restructuring approach recommended is realistic and pragmatic, but more clarity may be needed in certain circumstances. The research has also discussed the avoidance of transfer pricing audits, including having appropriate transfer pricing policies and documentation.
- Full Text: