Assessing flood vulnerability in the Nelson Mandela Bay Metro
- Authors: Zuze, Hillary
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: Floods -- South Africa -- Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality , Natural disasters Hazardous geographic environments Hazardous geographic environments -- Risk assessment , Climatic changes
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MSc
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/44224 , vital:37135
- Description: Floods are the most frequent amongst all global natural disasters at present, causing problems such as bridge collapses, fatalities, building damages and traffic delays. Between 1995 and 2015, there were approximately 3062 global flood disasters which accounted for 56% of all declared natural disasters and these affected 2.3 billion people (almost a third of the world’s population at the time) (EMDAT, 2015). The cost of damages for this period incurred for buildings and other infrastructure was at an all-time high of R23.69 (US$1.891) trillion. It is postulated through various studies that the number of urban flood events reported is increasing significantly in comparison to the previous decades (Armah et al., 2010; Lóczy, 2013; Leaning and Guha-Sapir, 2013; EMDAT, 2015; Tanoue et al., 2016; Rogger et al., 2017). Some research has also noted an increase in the number of floods per year, which has ascended to an average of 171 in this decade, from an annual average of 127 in the previous one (Dozier, 2013; Guha Sapir et al., 2016). Sources such as the Centre of Research and Epidemiological Disasters (Guha Sapir et al., 2016) recorded that from 1995 to 2015, globally, millions of homes were vulnerable to weather-related disasters, along with 130,000 health and education facilities. During this period, urban floods accounted for 98% of houses damaged and 99.9% of education and health facilities demolished by a weather-related disaster (Davies, 2017). Flooding is particularly harmful in terms of fatalities in developing countries due to inadequate flood protection and mitigation measures (Di Baldassarre et al., 2010; Dozier, 2013). Some studies attribute the high fatalities in developing countries to the inadequate disaster management strategies implemented to counter the impacts of urban flooding (Egbinola et al., 2015; Pazzi et al., 2016; Mavhura et al., 2017). Other authors have attributed the high fatalities to the sheer number of people residing in areas prone to flooding, which has been the knock-on effect of rapidly expanding cities, overwhelmed government agencies, and a pre-existing political and social system that promotes marginalisation (Collins, 2008; Aboagye, 2012). The occupation of flood-prone areas by settlements, which is a common feature in developing countries, is the major contributor to the fatalities as it involves a degree of risk. Risk is exposure to an undesired event, in this case flooding, and contributes directly to differing levels of vulnerability (Samuels, 2018). Communities have differing perceptions of flood vulnerability because of a combination of factors. These include the magnitude of the flood experienced, the number of people or the value of assets potentially affected by flooding due to location, and the lack of socioeconomic capacity to do anything to alter their vulnerability to a disaster (Hall et al., 2005; Adger, 2006; Birkmann et al., 2013; Rogger et al., 2017). Some communities acknowledge that there are people residing in flood prone areas and take measures to reduce or eliminate the risk through social, political and economic networks. In other cases, communities are able to identify their exposure to flooding but do not have the capacity to reduce the effects (Bouchard et al., 2007; Agbaoye, 2012; Musungu et al., 2012; Siyongwana, Heijne, and Tele et al., 20155).
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2019
- Authors: Zuze, Hillary
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: Floods -- South Africa -- Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality , Natural disasters Hazardous geographic environments Hazardous geographic environments -- Risk assessment , Climatic changes
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MSc
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/44224 , vital:37135
- Description: Floods are the most frequent amongst all global natural disasters at present, causing problems such as bridge collapses, fatalities, building damages and traffic delays. Between 1995 and 2015, there were approximately 3062 global flood disasters which accounted for 56% of all declared natural disasters and these affected 2.3 billion people (almost a third of the world’s population at the time) (EMDAT, 2015). The cost of damages for this period incurred for buildings and other infrastructure was at an all-time high of R23.69 (US$1.891) trillion. It is postulated through various studies that the number of urban flood events reported is increasing significantly in comparison to the previous decades (Armah et al., 2010; Lóczy, 2013; Leaning and Guha-Sapir, 2013; EMDAT, 2015; Tanoue et al., 2016; Rogger et al., 2017). Some research has also noted an increase in the number of floods per year, which has ascended to an average of 171 in this decade, from an annual average of 127 in the previous one (Dozier, 2013; Guha Sapir et al., 2016). Sources such as the Centre of Research and Epidemiological Disasters (Guha Sapir et al., 2016) recorded that from 1995 to 2015, globally, millions of homes were vulnerable to weather-related disasters, along with 130,000 health and education facilities. During this period, urban floods accounted for 98% of houses damaged and 99.9% of education and health facilities demolished by a weather-related disaster (Davies, 2017). Flooding is particularly harmful in terms of fatalities in developing countries due to inadequate flood protection and mitigation measures (Di Baldassarre et al., 2010; Dozier, 2013). Some studies attribute the high fatalities in developing countries to the inadequate disaster management strategies implemented to counter the impacts of urban flooding (Egbinola et al., 2015; Pazzi et al., 2016; Mavhura et al., 2017). Other authors have attributed the high fatalities to the sheer number of people residing in areas prone to flooding, which has been the knock-on effect of rapidly expanding cities, overwhelmed government agencies, and a pre-existing political and social system that promotes marginalisation (Collins, 2008; Aboagye, 2012). The occupation of flood-prone areas by settlements, which is a common feature in developing countries, is the major contributor to the fatalities as it involves a degree of risk. Risk is exposure to an undesired event, in this case flooding, and contributes directly to differing levels of vulnerability (Samuels, 2018). Communities have differing perceptions of flood vulnerability because of a combination of factors. These include the magnitude of the flood experienced, the number of people or the value of assets potentially affected by flooding due to location, and the lack of socioeconomic capacity to do anything to alter their vulnerability to a disaster (Hall et al., 2005; Adger, 2006; Birkmann et al., 2013; Rogger et al., 2017). Some communities acknowledge that there are people residing in flood prone areas and take measures to reduce or eliminate the risk through social, political and economic networks. In other cases, communities are able to identify their exposure to flooding but do not have the capacity to reduce the effects (Bouchard et al., 2007; Agbaoye, 2012; Musungu et al., 2012; Siyongwana, Heijne, and Tele et al., 20155).
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2019
Transformation adaptation: developing a framework for donor organisation support of climate change adaptation in resource poor communities
- Authors: Dada, Rehana
- Date: 2015
- Subjects: Climatic changes , Human beings -- Effect of climate on , Acclimatization
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MSc
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/4158 , vital:20560
- Description: Poor communities already face severe challenges in meeting their basic needs, whether because of poor income opportunities, inadequate service delivery, or degraded ecosystems that can no longer support the needs of people. Non profit organisations who provide support for development are also challenged by financial restrictions and social and political structures that prevent or limit project development. Climate change is understood to have the most severe impact on the most vulnerable communities and sectors of communities by reducing the availability and accessibility of basic resources such as water, food and energy, impacting severely on human health and wellbeing, and further reducing the capacity of ecosystems to support livelihoods. This will add a layer of significant new complications to the ability of poor communities to maintain or improve standards of living, and further challenge non profit organisations that support such communitiesAnticipatory adaptation to climate change can reduce some of the impacts of climate change, and also address some key development stresses. This thesis aims to provide a framework that is relevant for supporting adaptation to climate change within the context of resource poor communities in a developing country. Non profit organisations and donor agencies could support success and autonomy in adaptation processes by making provision for locally defined understanding of adaptation, and locally determined processes and programmes. This can be taken further into implementation of programming that addresses local short term development priorities alongside, or as part of long term adaptation work. The research followed a number of steps involving a multitude of techniques including literature review, interviews, a survey, consultation with an expert group, further consultation with stakeholders, and a final electronic review. Its outcome is a strategy that can be used to support climate change adaptation in resource poor communities. A definition for adaptation is proposed as an interpretation of adaptation that is relevant in this context. The intended end goal of adaptation as defined in this research is a better form of development that : supports a harmonious and respectful relationship between humans and their natural resource base; averts further destructive global change or at the very least prevents it from becoming unmanageable; and manages the impacts of past and ongoing destructive change so that there is lowest possible loss of natural, human, or cultural resources. The term transformative adaptation emerged from the research processes to describe adaptation to climate change that concurrently addresses development challenges, is grounded in community development aspirations, integrates programming work across multiple thematic areas and approaches, and addresses the causes of climate change within adaptation interventions. The following broad guidelines are used to inform programming within the framework of transformative adaptation : Human communities are faced with an enormous challenge resulting from global change and sociopolitical injustices; Well planned anticipatory adaptation can limit exposure and vulnerability to at least some of the projected impacts of climate change; Adaptation to climate change incorporates a reduction of vulnerability to underlying development stresses, alongside a reduction of vulnerability to specific climate change stresses; Existing development work forms the foundation for adaptation interventions, acknowledging the interdependence of social, natural and economic systems and the need to maintain their health; Adaptation decision making is community based, and acknowledges that resource poor communities are best placed to establish their own development needs, drive implementation of interventions in own spaces, and identify own limits to adaptation; Adaptation work incorporates mitigation objectives so that the causes of climate change are addressed as part of the strategy for coping with climate change; Adaptation programming acknowledges the strong interlinkages between, and integrates work across, the thematic areas of water security, food sovereignty, energy security, land security, human wellbeing and livelihood diversity; Adaptation uses a broad set of approaches that spans research, knowledge sharing, advocacy, and investment in technology and infrastructure; There is flexibility in project design and implementation to allow room for experimentation with new concepts, and also to change design as knowledge, understanding, and geophysical, biophysical and sociopolitical conditions change.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2015
- Authors: Dada, Rehana
- Date: 2015
- Subjects: Climatic changes , Human beings -- Effect of climate on , Acclimatization
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MSc
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/4158 , vital:20560
- Description: Poor communities already face severe challenges in meeting their basic needs, whether because of poor income opportunities, inadequate service delivery, or degraded ecosystems that can no longer support the needs of people. Non profit organisations who provide support for development are also challenged by financial restrictions and social and political structures that prevent or limit project development. Climate change is understood to have the most severe impact on the most vulnerable communities and sectors of communities by reducing the availability and accessibility of basic resources such as water, food and energy, impacting severely on human health and wellbeing, and further reducing the capacity of ecosystems to support livelihoods. This will add a layer of significant new complications to the ability of poor communities to maintain or improve standards of living, and further challenge non profit organisations that support such communitiesAnticipatory adaptation to climate change can reduce some of the impacts of climate change, and also address some key development stresses. This thesis aims to provide a framework that is relevant for supporting adaptation to climate change within the context of resource poor communities in a developing country. Non profit organisations and donor agencies could support success and autonomy in adaptation processes by making provision for locally defined understanding of adaptation, and locally determined processes and programmes. This can be taken further into implementation of programming that addresses local short term development priorities alongside, or as part of long term adaptation work. The research followed a number of steps involving a multitude of techniques including literature review, interviews, a survey, consultation with an expert group, further consultation with stakeholders, and a final electronic review. Its outcome is a strategy that can be used to support climate change adaptation in resource poor communities. A definition for adaptation is proposed as an interpretation of adaptation that is relevant in this context. The intended end goal of adaptation as defined in this research is a better form of development that : supports a harmonious and respectful relationship between humans and their natural resource base; averts further destructive global change or at the very least prevents it from becoming unmanageable; and manages the impacts of past and ongoing destructive change so that there is lowest possible loss of natural, human, or cultural resources. The term transformative adaptation emerged from the research processes to describe adaptation to climate change that concurrently addresses development challenges, is grounded in community development aspirations, integrates programming work across multiple thematic areas and approaches, and addresses the causes of climate change within adaptation interventions. The following broad guidelines are used to inform programming within the framework of transformative adaptation : Human communities are faced with an enormous challenge resulting from global change and sociopolitical injustices; Well planned anticipatory adaptation can limit exposure and vulnerability to at least some of the projected impacts of climate change; Adaptation to climate change incorporates a reduction of vulnerability to underlying development stresses, alongside a reduction of vulnerability to specific climate change stresses; Existing development work forms the foundation for adaptation interventions, acknowledging the interdependence of social, natural and economic systems and the need to maintain their health; Adaptation decision making is community based, and acknowledges that resource poor communities are best placed to establish their own development needs, drive implementation of interventions in own spaces, and identify own limits to adaptation; Adaptation work incorporates mitigation objectives so that the causes of climate change are addressed as part of the strategy for coping with climate change; Adaptation programming acknowledges the strong interlinkages between, and integrates work across, the thematic areas of water security, food sovereignty, energy security, land security, human wellbeing and livelihood diversity; Adaptation uses a broad set of approaches that spans research, knowledge sharing, advocacy, and investment in technology and infrastructure; There is flexibility in project design and implementation to allow room for experimentation with new concepts, and also to change design as knowledge, understanding, and geophysical, biophysical and sociopolitical conditions change.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2015
The response of the red mangrove rhizophora mucronata lam, to changes in salinity, inundation and light : predictions for future climate change
- Hoppe-Speer, Sabine Clara Lisa
- Authors: Hoppe-Speer, Sabine Clara Lisa
- Date: 2009
- Subjects: Mangrove plants , Climatic changes , Red mangrove
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MSc
- Identifier: vital:10616 , http://hdl.handle.net/10948/1249 , Mangrove plants , Climatic changes , Red mangrove
- Description: Mangrove forests are subjected to many environmental factors which influence species distribution, zonation patterns as well as succession. Important driving factors in these forests are salinity, water level fluctuations and available light. This study investigated the response of red mangrove (Rhizophora mucronata Lam.) seedlings to these factors in controlled laboratory experiments. Increase in salinity and prolonged inundation within estuaries are predicted impacts resulting from sea level rise due to climate change. The study investigated the effect of five salinity treatments (0, 8, 18, 35 and 45 ppt) with a semi-diurnal tidal cycle on seedling growth. In a separate experiment the effect of different inundation treatments: no inundation, 3, 6, 9 hour tidal cycles and continuous inundation (24 h) were investigated. Both morphological and physiological responses of R. mucronata seedlings were measured. There was a decrease in growth (plant height, biomass and leaf production) with increasing salinity. Seedlings in the seawater, hypersaline and no inundation treatments showed symptoms of stress, having increased leaf necrosis ("burn marks"). The highest growth occurred in the low salinity (8 ppt) treatment, but the highest photosynthetic performance and stomatal conductance occurred in the freshwater treatment (0 ppt). The typical response of stem elongation with increasing inundation was observed in the 24 hr inundation treatment. In the light and salinity combination study there were ten different treatments of five different light treatments (unshaded, 20 percent, 50 percent, 80 percent and 90 percent shade) combined with two salinity concentrations (18 and 35 ppt). In this study the seedling growth: plant height, biomass, leaf surface area and leaf production were higher in the moderate salinity (18 ppt) treatments compared to the seawater (35 ppt) treatments. Biomass in the 35 ppt experiment decreased with increasing shade as well as in the unshaded treatments. Photosynthetic performance and stomatal conductance were lower for the unshaded treatment in both 18 and 35 ppt salinity compared to all other treatments with the same salinity. This suggests that R. mucronata more shade than sun tolerant, but overall it can be concluded that the species has a broad tolerance range. The results may be relevant in mangrove rehabilitation and predicting responses to climate change. This is important as mangrove ecosystems may adapt to changing sea levels and in order to restore areas it will be necessary to choose the mangrove species which will grow best. The results may also help to increase the protection of existing mangrove habitats.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2009
- Authors: Hoppe-Speer, Sabine Clara Lisa
- Date: 2009
- Subjects: Mangrove plants , Climatic changes , Red mangrove
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MSc
- Identifier: vital:10616 , http://hdl.handle.net/10948/1249 , Mangrove plants , Climatic changes , Red mangrove
- Description: Mangrove forests are subjected to many environmental factors which influence species distribution, zonation patterns as well as succession. Important driving factors in these forests are salinity, water level fluctuations and available light. This study investigated the response of red mangrove (Rhizophora mucronata Lam.) seedlings to these factors in controlled laboratory experiments. Increase in salinity and prolonged inundation within estuaries are predicted impacts resulting from sea level rise due to climate change. The study investigated the effect of five salinity treatments (0, 8, 18, 35 and 45 ppt) with a semi-diurnal tidal cycle on seedling growth. In a separate experiment the effect of different inundation treatments: no inundation, 3, 6, 9 hour tidal cycles and continuous inundation (24 h) were investigated. Both morphological and physiological responses of R. mucronata seedlings were measured. There was a decrease in growth (plant height, biomass and leaf production) with increasing salinity. Seedlings in the seawater, hypersaline and no inundation treatments showed symptoms of stress, having increased leaf necrosis ("burn marks"). The highest growth occurred in the low salinity (8 ppt) treatment, but the highest photosynthetic performance and stomatal conductance occurred in the freshwater treatment (0 ppt). The typical response of stem elongation with increasing inundation was observed in the 24 hr inundation treatment. In the light and salinity combination study there were ten different treatments of five different light treatments (unshaded, 20 percent, 50 percent, 80 percent and 90 percent shade) combined with two salinity concentrations (18 and 35 ppt). In this study the seedling growth: plant height, biomass, leaf surface area and leaf production were higher in the moderate salinity (18 ppt) treatments compared to the seawater (35 ppt) treatments. Biomass in the 35 ppt experiment decreased with increasing shade as well as in the unshaded treatments. Photosynthetic performance and stomatal conductance were lower for the unshaded treatment in both 18 and 35 ppt salinity compared to all other treatments with the same salinity. This suggests that R. mucronata more shade than sun tolerant, but overall it can be concluded that the species has a broad tolerance range. The results may be relevant in mangrove rehabilitation and predicting responses to climate change. This is important as mangrove ecosystems may adapt to changing sea levels and in order to restore areas it will be necessary to choose the mangrove species which will grow best. The results may also help to increase the protection of existing mangrove habitats.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2009
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