Predictive modelling of species' potential geographical distributions
- Authors: Robertson, Mark Peter
- Date: 2003
- Subjects: Alien plants -- South Africa -- Geographical distribution Species -- Geographical distribution -- Mathematical models Cicadas -- South Africa -- Geographical distribution Scaevola plumieri -- South Africa -- Geographical distribution
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Doctoral , PhD
- Identifier: vital:5816 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1007189
- Description: Models that are used for predicting species' potential distributions are important tools that have found applications in a number of areas of applied ecology. The majority of these models can be classified as correlative, as they rely on strong, often indirect, links between species distribution records and environmental predictor variables to make predictions. Correlative models are an alternative to more complex mechanistic models that attempt to simulate the mechanisms considered to underlie the observed correlations with environmental attributes. This study explores the influence of the type and quality of the data used to calibrate correlative models. In terms of data type, the most popular techniques in use are group discrimination techniques, those that use both presence and absence locality data to make predictions. However, for many organisms absence data are either not available or are considered to be unreliable. As the available range of profile techniques (those using presence only data) appeared to be limited, new profile techniques were investigated and evaluated. A new profile modelling technique based on fuzzy classification (the Fuzzy Envelope Model) was developed and implemented. A second profile technique based on Principal Components Analysis was implemented and evaluated. Based on quantitative model evaluation tests, both of these techniques performed well and show considerable promise. In terms of data quality, the effects on model performance of false absence records, the number of locality records (sample size) and the proportion of localities representing species presence (prevalence) in samples were investigated for logistic regression distribution models. Sample size and prevalence both had a significant effect on model performance. False absence records had a significant influence on model performance, which was affected by sample size. A quantitative comparison of the performance of selected profile models and group discrimination modelling techniques suggests that different techniques may be more successful for predicting distributions for particular species or types of organism than others. The results also suggest that several different model design! sample size combinations are capable of making predictions that will on average not differ significantly in performance for a particular species. A further quantitative comparison among modelling techniques suggests that correlative techniques can perform as well as simple mechanistic techniques for predicting potential distributions.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2003
- Authors: Robertson, Mark Peter
- Date: 2003
- Subjects: Alien plants -- South Africa -- Geographical distribution Species -- Geographical distribution -- Mathematical models Cicadas -- South Africa -- Geographical distribution Scaevola plumieri -- South Africa -- Geographical distribution
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Doctoral , PhD
- Identifier: vital:5816 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1007189
- Description: Models that are used for predicting species' potential distributions are important tools that have found applications in a number of areas of applied ecology. The majority of these models can be classified as correlative, as they rely on strong, often indirect, links between species distribution records and environmental predictor variables to make predictions. Correlative models are an alternative to more complex mechanistic models that attempt to simulate the mechanisms considered to underlie the observed correlations with environmental attributes. This study explores the influence of the type and quality of the data used to calibrate correlative models. In terms of data type, the most popular techniques in use are group discrimination techniques, those that use both presence and absence locality data to make predictions. However, for many organisms absence data are either not available or are considered to be unreliable. As the available range of profile techniques (those using presence only data) appeared to be limited, new profile techniques were investigated and evaluated. A new profile modelling technique based on fuzzy classification (the Fuzzy Envelope Model) was developed and implemented. A second profile technique based on Principal Components Analysis was implemented and evaluated. Based on quantitative model evaluation tests, both of these techniques performed well and show considerable promise. In terms of data quality, the effects on model performance of false absence records, the number of locality records (sample size) and the proportion of localities representing species presence (prevalence) in samples were investigated for logistic regression distribution models. Sample size and prevalence both had a significant effect on model performance. False absence records had a significant influence on model performance, which was affected by sample size. A quantitative comparison of the performance of selected profile models and group discrimination modelling techniques suggests that different techniques may be more successful for predicting distributions for particular species or types of organism than others. The results also suggest that several different model design! sample size combinations are capable of making predictions that will on average not differ significantly in performance for a particular species. A further quantitative comparison among modelling techniques suggests that correlative techniques can perform as well as simple mechanistic techniques for predicting potential distributions.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2003
Spatial and temporal occurrence of forensically important South African blowflies (Diptera: Calliphorida)
- Authors: Williams, Kirstin Alexa
- Date: 2003
- Subjects: Blowflies -- South Africa , Forensic entomology
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MSc
- Identifier: vital:5617 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1003217 , Blowflies -- South Africa , Forensic entomology
- Description: Forensic entomology is an emergjng field in South Africa. Little is known about South African blowflies and factors that affect their use in a forensic context. This work provides a review and synthesis of previous work in South Africa and supplements some of the background and basic knowledge required for forensic entomology in South Africa. The seasonal occurrence of eight forensicaIIy important blowfly species was quantified by fortnightly trapping in Grahamstown, South Africa. The spatial distribution of each species was related to seasonal occurrence and habitat preference. Seasonal distributions of blowflies in carcasses in South Africa were obtained from the literature and compared to the seasonal trapping. By mapping South African locality records of forensicaIIy important blowflies and analyzing these records in a modified Principal Components Analysis of climatic data, the potential geographic distributions of each fly species was modeIIed. Most species were widespread, but Calliphora croceipalpis, Jaennicke, 1867, was found in cold places. This information is important for determining where certain species are likely to occur in forensic investigations. Nocturnal oviposition was examined in both field and laboratory experiments. Lucilia species could oviposit nocturnaIIy in the field, while Lucilia species, Chrysomya chloropyga, (Weidemann, 1818) and C. putoria (Weidemann, 1830) could oviposit nocturnaIIy in the laboratory. These findings are important factors in affecting the precision of estimates of a post mortem interval (PM!) by up to 12 hours. The thermophysiological ranges of four species of adult blowflies were determined by measuring onset temperatures of four significant behaviours: onset of neural activity; onset of coordinated movement; shade-seeking and death. There was a sexual size dimorphism in Lucilia species, Chrysomya chloropyga and Calliphora croceipalpis with females being larger than males. Chrysomya megacephala (Fabricius, 1794) had an unexpectedly high death threshold, while Calliphora croceipalpis had the lowest death threshold of the flies tested. These points were related to the seasonal and geographic occurrence of each species, to nocturnal activity and placed in a forensic context.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2003
- Authors: Williams, Kirstin Alexa
- Date: 2003
- Subjects: Blowflies -- South Africa , Forensic entomology
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MSc
- Identifier: vital:5617 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1003217 , Blowflies -- South Africa , Forensic entomology
- Description: Forensic entomology is an emergjng field in South Africa. Little is known about South African blowflies and factors that affect their use in a forensic context. This work provides a review and synthesis of previous work in South Africa and supplements some of the background and basic knowledge required for forensic entomology in South Africa. The seasonal occurrence of eight forensicaIIy important blowfly species was quantified by fortnightly trapping in Grahamstown, South Africa. The spatial distribution of each species was related to seasonal occurrence and habitat preference. Seasonal distributions of blowflies in carcasses in South Africa were obtained from the literature and compared to the seasonal trapping. By mapping South African locality records of forensicaIIy important blowflies and analyzing these records in a modified Principal Components Analysis of climatic data, the potential geographic distributions of each fly species was modeIIed. Most species were widespread, but Calliphora croceipalpis, Jaennicke, 1867, was found in cold places. This information is important for determining where certain species are likely to occur in forensic investigations. Nocturnal oviposition was examined in both field and laboratory experiments. Lucilia species could oviposit nocturnaIIy in the field, while Lucilia species, Chrysomya chloropyga, (Weidemann, 1818) and C. putoria (Weidemann, 1830) could oviposit nocturnaIIy in the laboratory. These findings are important factors in affecting the precision of estimates of a post mortem interval (PM!) by up to 12 hours. The thermophysiological ranges of four species of adult blowflies were determined by measuring onset temperatures of four significant behaviours: onset of neural activity; onset of coordinated movement; shade-seeking and death. There was a sexual size dimorphism in Lucilia species, Chrysomya chloropyga and Calliphora croceipalpis with females being larger than males. Chrysomya megacephala (Fabricius, 1794) had an unexpectedly high death threshold, while Calliphora croceipalpis had the lowest death threshold of the flies tested. These points were related to the seasonal and geographic occurrence of each species, to nocturnal activity and placed in a forensic context.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2003
The diamondback moth, Plutella xylostella (L.), (Lepidoptera: Plutellidae) and its biological control in the Eastern Cape Province, South Africa
- Authors: Smith, Tamara Jane
- Date: 2003
- Subjects: Plutellidae Plutellidae -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape Insect pests -- Biological control -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Doctoral , PhD
- Identifier: vital:5626 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1004742
- Description: The diamondback moth, Plutella xylostella (L.), is a pest on crucifer crops worldwide, damaging the leaves, florets and seed pods of many crucifers including cabbage, cauliflower, broccoli and canola. It has been controlled using broad-spectrum insecticides, but this has led to a rapid build-up of insecticide resistance. In the Grahamstown area of the Eastern Cape Province, South Africa, diamondback moth showed resistance to cypermethrin (a pyrethroid) on commercially grown cabbages. Therefore it is imperative that other methods of control be adopted, including both cultural control and biological control using parasitoids, and that these are incorporated into an Integrated Pest Management (IPM) programme. The diamondback moth and its parasitoids were monitored weekly from April 1997 to November 1999 at three sites near Grahamstown. One site was a commercial farm with an active insecticide spraying program; the others were unsprayed. Infestation levels were highest during spring (September to November) and autumn (March to May). Nine species of parasitoids were associated with the diamondback moth, with abundances being highest over spring and early summer (September to December). Cotesia plutellae (Kurdjumov) dominated the sprayed site, while the unsprayed sites yielded a complex of parasitoids, including C. plutellae, Diadegma mollipla (Holmgren), Diadromus collaris Gravenhorst and Oomyzus sokolowsldi (Kurdjumov). Parasitism levels ranged between 10 and 90%. There was a large amount of site-to-site and year-to-year variation. Parasitoids were an effective mortality factor against the diamondback moth. The effects of temperature on development and mortality, and of field size and non-crop plants on the distribution of diamondback moth and its parasitoids, were investigated. The results show that high temperatures can depress pest populations, and that the size and surroundings of fields can be manipulated to improve cultural control of the diamondback moth. Suggestions for effective rPM in the Eastern Cape Province include a reduction in insecticide applications, the use of bioinsecticides, for example Bacillus thuringiensis Berliner (Bt) and the encouragement of indigenous parasitoids by planting suitable nectar sources. Cultural control methods are also important and involve removal of cabbage refuse after harvest, management of wild crucifers around cabbage fields, scouting and monitoring the moth population and determining the optimal field size to assist with control by parasitoids.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2003
- Authors: Smith, Tamara Jane
- Date: 2003
- Subjects: Plutellidae Plutellidae -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape Insect pests -- Biological control -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Doctoral , PhD
- Identifier: vital:5626 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1004742
- Description: The diamondback moth, Plutella xylostella (L.), is a pest on crucifer crops worldwide, damaging the leaves, florets and seed pods of many crucifers including cabbage, cauliflower, broccoli and canola. It has been controlled using broad-spectrum insecticides, but this has led to a rapid build-up of insecticide resistance. In the Grahamstown area of the Eastern Cape Province, South Africa, diamondback moth showed resistance to cypermethrin (a pyrethroid) on commercially grown cabbages. Therefore it is imperative that other methods of control be adopted, including both cultural control and biological control using parasitoids, and that these are incorporated into an Integrated Pest Management (IPM) programme. The diamondback moth and its parasitoids were monitored weekly from April 1997 to November 1999 at three sites near Grahamstown. One site was a commercial farm with an active insecticide spraying program; the others were unsprayed. Infestation levels were highest during spring (September to November) and autumn (March to May). Nine species of parasitoids were associated with the diamondback moth, with abundances being highest over spring and early summer (September to December). Cotesia plutellae (Kurdjumov) dominated the sprayed site, while the unsprayed sites yielded a complex of parasitoids, including C. plutellae, Diadegma mollipla (Holmgren), Diadromus collaris Gravenhorst and Oomyzus sokolowsldi (Kurdjumov). Parasitism levels ranged between 10 and 90%. There was a large amount of site-to-site and year-to-year variation. Parasitoids were an effective mortality factor against the diamondback moth. The effects of temperature on development and mortality, and of field size and non-crop plants on the distribution of diamondback moth and its parasitoids, were investigated. The results show that high temperatures can depress pest populations, and that the size and surroundings of fields can be manipulated to improve cultural control of the diamondback moth. Suggestions for effective rPM in the Eastern Cape Province include a reduction in insecticide applications, the use of bioinsecticides, for example Bacillus thuringiensis Berliner (Bt) and the encouragement of indigenous parasitoids by planting suitable nectar sources. Cultural control methods are also important and involve removal of cabbage refuse after harvest, management of wild crucifers around cabbage fields, scouting and monitoring the moth population and determining the optimal field size to assist with control by parasitoids.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2003
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