Testing the efficient market hypothesis in the cryptocurrency market
- Authors: Apopo, Natalya Camilla
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: Digital currency
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/42427 , vital:36662
- Description: Digital currencies are rising in popularity owing to their purported benefits and the speculative profits that investors are making in the market. These currencies, though decentralised in substance, can be purchased using digital wallets from cryptocurrency exchange platforms around the world. In Africa, these platforms are still at the nascent stages of growth and development, but evidence suggests a burgeoning potential in these markets. Volatility in these markets has been a topic of concern for many empirical investigations with most finding corroborative evidence of excess volatility in the digital currency market. However, there is a conflicting body of evidence when it comes to the studies evaluating the efficiency of the virtual currency market. The efficient market hypothesis ( EMH)is a controversial theory in finance. Proponents argue that it provides a basis for understanding financial markets whereas opponents suggest that the hypothesis is premature in its assumptions of the real functioning of these markets. Though not perfect, the efficient markets model provides a sufficient baseline against which capital markets may be analysed. Besides being one of the most empirically investigated theories in finance, its utility led to the development of later models such as the capital asset pricing model. In postulating that the prices of securities reflect all available information in capital markets, the efficient markets theory lends itself to testing the efficacy levels of the cryptocurrency market. For the purposes of this study, the weak version of the efficient markets theory was evaluated as itis considered the lowest possible form of efficiency attainable. Using both linear and nonlinear unit root testing methodologies, a significant subset of the cryptocurrency market was investigated for inefficiencies via the null hypothesis of non-stationarity. There were mixed results from the testing process, but a substantial portion of the currencies investigated rejected the null of a unit root in favour of stationarity, providing some evidence against weak form efficiency. For these reasons, it is recommended that further research be conducted in the virtual currency markets to offer more conclusive findings.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2019
Testing the validity of Okun’s law in South Africa within the democratic era
- Authors: Mavikela, Nomahlubi
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: Labor market -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic conditions Unemployment -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/41559 , vital:36512
- Description: The challenge of high unemployment rates coupled with sluggish growth rates is an important issue in developing economies. The presence of high unemployment rates implies the lack of utilisation of labour resources efficiently. Hence, it being of grave importance for government to prioritise as a major macroeconomic goal the attainment of full employment due to its ability of maximising output. Okun’s law is a well-known relationship postulating an inverse relationship between unemployment and output, implying that an increase in unemployment would be associated with a decline in output and vice versa. Since the pioneer work of Okun (1962), a large volume of empirical studies have been conducted looking at the relationship between economic growth and the rate of unemployment. However, their findings are varied due to differences in the model specification, choice of variables used, econometric models and time periods. The main objective of this dissertation is to test the validity of Okun’s law in South Africa using quarterly data for the period 1994-2016. The importance of determining the effect of the association will inform policy decisions. A variety of detrending methods are utilised such as the Hodrick-Prescott filter, Corbae Ouliaris FD filter and L1 trend filter to decomposed output and unemployment into their trend and cyclical components. Furthermore, the linear and nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model together with the error correction model (ECM) are employed to obtain the short and long-run estimates. Overall, the empirical results revealed that the Okun’s coefficients magnitude differed over time; however, only a selected few were found to be statistically significant for the tested time periods. Using the ARDL model the study found that in the long-run a 1% increase in GDP for the 2001-2008 time period was associated with a 0.17% decline in unemployment. While a 1% increase in unemployment in the long-run resulted in 0.78% decline in GDP. Meanwhile, in the short-run, the study confirmed that a 1% increase in GDP is associated with 0.21%-0.69% decline in unemployment. While a 1% increase in unemployment resulted in a 0.10%-0.14% decline in GDP. These findings reveal that measures aimed at boosting economic growth will have a bigger impact in reducing unemployment levels. Furthermore, these findings reiterate the need for effective policies to reduce the gradually increasing unemployment rate and improving growth levels.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2019
The determinants of economic growth in BRICS Countries
- Authors: Nyirenda, Chimwemwe
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: Economic development -- BRIC countries , BRIC countries -- Economic conditions
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/42946 , vital:36713
- Description: One of the key goals of the formation of BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) was to promote stability in trade and investment which would boost growth as the five BRICS countries recovered from the 2009 global financial crisis. This however has not been the case for all BRICS countries where only certain members have experienced a substantial increase in growth while others have experienced declining growth rates. The objective of this study was to analyse the determinants of economic growth in BRICS countries in order to investigate the causes of growth rates varying amongst the BRICS economies. This paper considered various economic theories for proximate and fundamental determinants of growth which included: The Harrod-Domar model, The Neoclassical Growth Theory, The Endogenous Growth Model, The New Growth Theory, Institutions and Economic Growth, Democracy, The Quality of Governance and Growth, Finance and Growth, Trade and Economic Growth and lastly Financial Openness and Growth. The study was conducted for a period covering from 1995 to 2016 and made use of the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model for the single-country analysis and Pooled Mean Group (PMG) was used for the panel analysis. In the single-country analysis, the descriptive statistics indicated that individually all of the BRICS members on average experienced positive GDP growth, positive investment (capital formation) and trade openness between 1995 to 2016. The single-country analysis made use of the ARDL Bounds test to investigate cointegration in each country and a long-run relationship was established in all BRICS countries except for China. The augmented Solow model was extended to incorporate both proximate and fundamental determinants of growth. The estimated results for the ARDL model found that capital and trade openness were significant in determining GDP growth for all of the BRICS countries except for China. FDI was insignificant in determining growth in BRICS countries except for India and the remaining variables gave mixed results between the countries. The error correction term (ECT) was significant and negative in all of the BRICS countries (except for China) which indicated that there was convergence. In the panel analysis, a long-run relationship was established using the KAO Residual cointegration test. The panel correlations test for BRICS revealed that GDP growth had a positive correlation with all the variables under analysis except for inflation which was in line with the anticipated correlations. The PMG estimated results for BRICS found that the proximate determinants (capital and labour) were both significant in determining growth in the long-run where capital had a positive relationship and labour had a negative relationship with growth. Trade openness, inflation and FDI were significant in determining growth in the long-run, though government expenditure was insignificant in determining growth. The error correction term for BRICS illustrated that there was convergence and 92% of the disequilibrium in the short-run is corrected each year. The analysis revealed that BRICS economies should adopt more policies that encourage domestic investment and trade in order to boost growth. Policies such as relaxing local corporation taxes can encourage domestic investment which will aid local businesses in competing against foreign competition. Countries such as Brazil, India and South Africa can adopt more policies that encourage the development and growth of SMME’s. An area for future research would be to incorporate a location variable into the fundamental determinants of growth where the analysis could be conducted per region in each of the BRICS countries, which would give a broader view on which regions are determining growth in BRICS countries.
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- Date Issued: 2019
The effect of the exchange rate on economic growth in South Africa
- Authors: Maxwele, Chuma
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa -- Econometric models Economic development -- South Africa South Africa -- Economic conditions -- Econometric models
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/41548 , vital:36505
- Description: The study examines the effect of the exchange rate on South African economic growth rate, as this relationship is of paramount importance in South Africa, since the country has a highly volatile exchange rate in among emerging economies, and this has a significant impact on economic growth. The exchange rate can be explained or defined as the value of the home country or domestic currency in relation to foreign currencies, and economic growth, which is measured in terms of gross domestic product (GDP), which is the measure of currently produced final output in a country at a specific time period, usually a year or quarter. It has been long known that an inadequately or poorly managed exchange rate can be problematic in a country’s economic growth rate. Some economists point out that management of a country’s foreign exchange market is of utmost importance. Furthermore, bad exchange rate management can lead to unstable international relations that detrimentally affect the international trade of a country and cause large speculative financial flows, which could cause financial markets to be disrupted and also lead inefficient allocation of funds. At the same time, competitive exchange rate promotes a suitable economic environment that is a precondition when it comes to expanding of international trade and investment, and gaining of higher economic growth in a country. The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of the exchange rate on economic growth in South Africa. This study employs a newly developed econometric technique known as non-linear autoregressive distributive lag (NARDL). This study employs annual data for the period of 1970 to 2017. The first variable is the real effective exchange rate of the rand, and the study compares the value of the rand against the currencies of the twenty trading partners. The second variable is economic growth, which is measured in terms of the gross domestic product (GDP). GDP is the value of output produced within the region or borders of a country during a period of time, usually a year or quarter. Investment is another variable used, and it is categorised into economic investment (capital formation) and financial investment but the study adopts economic investment. Economic investment is the quantity of capital stock in a society, simple put it is goods used in the making of other goods. Government expenditure is also used in the study, and government expenditure is about public goods and services provided to society, and is a major component of gross domestic product. The last variable employed in the study is broad money supply as a percentage of GDP, which can be explained as the sum of the currency outside financial institutions, such as demand deposits other than the ones for government, the time, savings, and foreign currency of residents other than the government. GDP data was obtained from the electronic data bases of South African Reserve Bank, and all the remaining variables were obtained from the electronic data bases of the World Bank. The results of the NARDL model indicate that a positive change of the real effective exchange rate has a positive and significant effect on the gross domestic product in the long-run, while a negative change of the real effective exchange rate has a negative and significant effect on the gross domestic product in the long-run. In the short-run, the results also behave in the same manner as in the long-run. The study recommends that the real effective exchange rate should not be the only area to look into when trying to improve economic growth in South Africa. Investments must be looked into as well, and South Africa needs more growth desperately.
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- Date Issued: 2019
The effect of the exchange rate on inflation in South Africa
- Authors: Gwili, Lutho Olwethu
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: Inflation (Finance) -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates -- Africa South Foreign exchange rates -- Econometric models -- Africa South South Africa -- Economic conditions
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/39643 , vital:35341
- Description: The depreciation of the rand in recent years has been one of the indicators of recession in South Africa. The unpredictability of the rand and its volatility has led to great inflationary pressure. The process of examining the relationship between South Africa’s exchange rate and inflation rate has become increasingly relevant down the years. This study analyses the relationship between exchange rate and inflation in South Africa from 1994Q1 to 2017Q4. Its objective is to establish the effect of the exchange rate on inflation in South Africa. The non-linear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model is employed as the method of estimation. Trends in exchange rate and inflation between 1980 and 2017 are analysed. Monetary régimes and shifts in inflation down the years are discussed. Key events like the Asian financial crisis of 1998, the introduction of the inflation targeting framework in 2000, the significant depreciation of the rand in 2001 and the global financial crisis in 2008/09 all contributed majorly in the way the country’s monetary policy and inflation take the form they have today. The literature identifies the exchange rate pass-through, purchasing power parity (PPP) and absolute power parity (APP) as exchange rate theories, all in which are discussed in detail. Empirical evidence suggests a predominantly positive relationship between inflation rate and exchange rate in other African countries as well as in developed countries. The exchange rate pass-through in South Africa appears to have lessened down the years. The NARDL model is discussed in detail in the research methodology chapter. The main reason for using this method of estimation is to capture asymmetry effects that may exist between inflation and exchange rate. First and second generation unit root tests, like Ng-Perron, DF-GLS and KSS, are discussed in detail to capture the stationarity of the variables. The variables of interest include nominal effective exchange rate, Brent crude oil prices, prime lending rate, unemployment rate and M3 money supply. This is done in line with the literature. The vector autoregressive (VAR) model is briefly discussed in the research methodology chapter. The findings of the study reveal that an appreciation in the exchange rate decreases the inflation rate. The results also reveal that a depreciation in the exchange rate decreases the inflation rate, which happens not to be in line with economic theory. This implies that a depreciation has a negative effect on inflation. A positive relationship between oil price and inflation is found to exist. A negative relationship is found to exist between M3 money supply and inflation. There is a positive relationship between prime lending rate and inflation. The study found that the Phillips curve does not hold in South Africa. The estimated VAR model results reveal that there exists unidirectional causality running from nominal effective exchange rate to inflation rate. The impulse response function reveals a negative relationship between exchange rate and inflation. Therefore, the study proposes that policymakers evolve means of evaluating exchange rate volatility, and that lending rates be made flexible. This will help curb inflation in South Africa.
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- Date Issued: 2019
The effects of inflation on economic growth and unemployment in light of the global financial crisis in BRICS countries
- Authors: Falakahla, Lwazi
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: Inflation (Finance) -- BRIC countries , Economic development -- BRIC countries Unemployment -- BRIC countries Monetary policy , Global Financial Crisis, 2008-2009
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/39829 , vital:35477
- Description: The key critical role played by Central Banks’ monetary policy and government macroeconomic policy relies on precise and timely forecasts on economic growth along the business cycle periods. In the past, many emerging countries have been facing problems of high escalating inflationary prices. This dissertation is set out to examine the influence of inflation on output growth and unemployment considering the global financial crisis in BRICS countries using annual data collected over the period 1980 to 2016. The study is divided into two sections; namely macroeconomic policy and monetary policy principles. The empirical analyses are computed through using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach proposed by Pesaran et al. (2001). The macroeconomic policy findings show that there is a negative long run relationship between inflation and economic growth in Russia and South Africa. The study’s ARDL bounds test for cointegration results also indicated that there is statistically significant long run comovement between inflation and economic growth in all BRICS countries. The study results also provided that there is an existence of a negative short run relationship between inflation and economic growth in South Africa. The Phillips curve results indicated that a positive long run trade-off between inflation and unemployment is found and no short run relationship discovered. It is also revealed that the long run co-movement between inflation and unemployment only exists in Russia and South Africa. The study is significant because it contributes to the empirical determinants of long term prosperity of the BRICS partners.
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- Date Issued: 2019
The financial soundness of selected banks in South Africa: a camels rating system approach
- Authors: Manga, Rushil Mohan
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: Bank failures -- South Africa , Banks and banking -- Risk management , Banks and banking -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/40889 , vital:36258
- Description: Bank failure continues to feature in South Africa and although it is not uncommon, nor limited to any single country, it has the potential to have significant systemic risks. It is, therefore of the utmost importance to mitigate bank failure where possible. Bank supervision plays a key role in ensuring that individual banks, and the banking sector, remain sound. This study analysed seven selected banks in South Africa namely, ABSA, African Bank, Capitec Bank, FirstRand Bank, Nedbank, Standard Bank and VBS Mutual Bank. The CAMELS rating system was applied to evaluate the component and composite ratings for each selected bank. The empirical evidence exhibited that the CAMELS model has been used world-wide and proved valuable in its simplicity and reliability. The results showed that all banks achieved a rating of three or fair, with the exception being African Bank. African Bank, rated four or marginal, continues to struggle to regain market confidence since its cu0ratorship and restructuring. The study further showed that among the selected banks, management quality and liquidity were two components that consistently showed critical weaknesses, which posed concerns for formal supervision. The study utilised One-way ANOVA (Analysis of Variance) to analyse the results of the CAMELS model. It was found that there was no significant difference in the financial soundness of the selected banks as a measure of the CAMELS model. The study further recommended that the banks invest and focus on developing human resource departments to attain and retain high quality managers in terms of qualifications and experience. The banks’ internal policies need to align, not only with the company’s business targets, but also the personal contentment and fulfilment of employees and managers. This will help reduce frictional unemployment in the banking sector. It must be noted that Capitec was the only bank to avoid a marginal or weak rating in the management quality component. To address the poor rating awarded to the liquidity component in all selected banks, it is recommended that senior management, regulators and supervisors need to work together to implement sound liquidity management practices. The CAMELS model presents a clear depiction of the financial soundness of a bank and can be comparable to other competitive banks within a country. For this reason, the model would be easily understandable, not only to supervisors and senior management, but also investors, stake-holders, their customers and the general population. It is therefore recommended that the SARB publishes a detailed annual report, which analyses all banks in South Africa by way of the CAMELS model.
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- Date Issued: 2019
The impact of unanticipated news announcements by the US Federal Reserve On South African stock returns
- Authors: Sibanda, Lorna
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: Monetary policy -- United States , International finance , South Africa -- Foreign economic relations -- United States , United States -- Foreign economic relations -- South Africa , Banks of issue -- United States , Investments -- South Africa , Stocks -- Prices -- South Africa , Stocks -- Rate of return , Rate of return -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/94703 , vital:31070
- Description: This thesis analyses whether monetary policy announcement shocks are transmitted across countries, with special emphasis on the impact of US Federal Reserve announcements on the South African stock market. Monetary policy is an important source of economic news and affects the risk perceptions of market participants. This study will improve the understanding of stock price determinants and possibly influence SA monetary policy in guarding against possible shocks originating from abroad. Using Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) announcements over the period 2008 – 2014, the research studied changes in volatility of the South African FTSE/JSE All Share Index returns over this period. An event study and GARCH model approach was adopted to reach the goals of the analysis. The findings were a statistically insignificant connection between SA stock returns and both anticipated and unanticipated US Federal Reserve announcements. Over the sample period, each shock to SA stock returns persisted for approximately 4-5 months. Although SA stock return volatility demonstrated clustering behaviour (indicating sensitivity to economic shocks), the research could not find an obvious relationship between these spikes in volatility and US Federal Reserve announcements. It is concluded that South African stock returns do not change in response to unexpected US monetary policy announcements.
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- Date Issued: 2019
The influence of financial socialisation agents on young professionals’ financial literacy levels
- Authors: Saayman, Michelle
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: Finance -- Social aspects -- South Africa , Financial literacy -- South Africa Finance, Personal -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/43001 , vital:36723
- Description: This study is focused on the levels of financial literacy of young professionals because they are exiting university with high levels of debt and may have low levels of financial literacy as students. These young professionals enter the workforce and face complex financial decisions where they are expected to be able to make independent and sound financial decisions. They have access to all types of financial products and services and have increased levels of household debt as well as the need to fund an ageing population, such as their parents. The main objective of this study was to investigate the influence financial socialisation agents have on the financial literacy levels of young professionals. The financial socialisation agents that are investigated are parents, peers, teachers and employers. These financial socialisation agents use various financial socialisation mechanisms to influence the financial literacy of young professionals. The financial socialisation mechanisms that were identified are teaching practices, modelling of financial behaviour and pocket money (employed by parents), peer communication (employed by peers), and financial instruction (employed by both teachers and employers). An extensive literature review on financial socialisation and financial literacy was conducted. This led to the development of a conceptual framework that is tested empirically. In order to test the conceptual model for the study, a quantitative research approach was adopted. Non-probability snowball and convenience sampling was used to target respondents of the study. A total of 300 questionnaires were distributed to employees in the financial industry between the ages of 20 and 35. Of the 300 questionnaires distributed in the Nelson Mandela Bay, 263 were returned and usable, resulting in a response rate of 88 percent. Descriptive and inferential statistics were used to test the empirical data, and included the Pearson’s product-moment correlation coefficient and a multiple regression analysis. The results showed that while many respondents (42%) scored between 61 and 80 percent for the questions on financial knowledge. Only 15 percent of respondents scored higher for financial knowledge, namely between 81 and 100 percent. In terms of validity and reliability, most of the factors tested are retained; only subjective financial knowledge and financial attitude are disregarded for further analysis. The descriptive statistics showed that respondents scored a mean of 2.649 for the statements measuring educational allowance, a mean of 2.041 for the statements that measure teaching practices that includes modelling of behaviour, and 59 percent of respondents indicated that the statements that measure teaching practices that include modelling of behaviour was true; only 24 percent of respondents believe the statements regarding peer communication to be true, with the other respondents (42%) being neutral. Most of the respondents believe the statements regarding financial instruction to be true, both for financial instruction from teachers (61%) and employers (46%), and the majority (70%) of respondents believe the factor financial behaviour to be true. Only one hypotheses (H4) was accepted: There was a significant positive relationship between employers and financial literacy. The other three hypotheses (H1, H2 and H3) were rejected. H1 proposed that a significant positive relationship exists between parents and financial literacy, H2 that a significant positive relationship between peers and financial literacy exists, and H3 that a significant positive relationship between teachers and financial literacy exists. This mean that other financial socialisation agents, namely, parents, peers and teachers, did not influence financial literacy. The results show that the mechanism employed by employers, financial instruction, has a significant influence on the objective financial knowledge and financial behaviour of young professionals. Based on the results above, it is recommended that South Africa should prioritise the financial literacy of its youth. Policymakers can do this by providing young adults with financial literacy courses and require employers to provide these courses to their employees. The workshops offered by employers to the respondents of the study resulted in these respondents having higher levels of financial literacy, as H4 proposed and was supported in the results. Therefore, employers should consider providing workshops as part of their benefit package to their employees. These workshops can be about various financial matters, such as retirement planning, debt management, savings and investments, the importance of insurance and assurance, as well as a medical aid and how to apply for credit, such as home loans, credit cards and vehicle assistance. Other options that employers can consider is sending informative emails on a regular basis to their employees. Parents should also have access to financial literacy courses because the study found that parents’ teaching practices, which includes modelling of behaviour, influence the financial behaviour of young professionals. Teachers, through financial instruction, also influence the financial behaviour of young professionals. Therefore, teachers and other educators or education institutions should consider offering formal financial instruction, either on the internet, through financial articles or workshops about budgeting, record keeping of expenses, cost of credit, savings and inflation. Therefore in conclusion, it is important that policymakers and employers consider this research and provide young professionals with the necessary resources to help them make complex financial decisions. This study has contributed to literature by investigating the influence of financial socialisation agents on the financial literacy levels of young professionals in the financial industry specifically. The proposed conceptual model of the study may be useful in determining the influence of financial socialisation agents on financial literacy in the future. The study also advance research on financial socialisation and financial literacy, specifically among youth as there exist no studies that investigate the influence of financial socialisation on the financial literacy levels of young professionals in South Africa.
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- Date Issued: 2019
The influence of the real business cycle shocks on aggregate demand in South Africa
- Authors: Mesatywa, Msa Pumelela
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: Business cycles -- South Africa , Economic indicators -- South Africa Macroeconomics
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/42407 , vital:36653
- Description: The aim of this study is to investigate the influence of the real business cycle shocks on aggregate demand in South Africa. These shocks consist of government expenditure, oil prices, technology (proxied by research and development), labour productivity, and droughts. The theoretical framework is presented consisting of the literature review and empirical review. The Neo-classical, Keynesian and Structuralist theories are explained in the literature review. Furthermore, the empirical section consists of previous studies from developed and developing countries, and as well as studies conducted in South Africa based on the topic of this study. The Non-Linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model approach was used to find the influence between economic growth, government expenditures, oil prices, technology shock (proxy research and development), labour productivity and droughts in South Africae using quarterly data from 1995 to 2017. The Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filter was used to extract the shocks and to test their influence on economic growth. The NARDL technique uses a single reduced form of equation to examine the long run relationship of the variables as opposed to other models. The NARDL technique is also suitable to use to test co-integration and does not require the underlying variables to be integrated of similar order. The results from the NARDL bounds test showed that there is a long run relationship for government expenditure, oil prices, technology, labour productivity and droughts. Furthermore, the labour productivity shock tends out to be the larger shock affecting South Africa’s economy. This study will provide policy recommendations on how to improve and increase labour productivity in South Africa.
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- Date Issued: 2019
The interaction between oil price shocks, currency volatility and stock market prices: evidence from South Africa
- Authors: Tshivhase, Mikovhe
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: Petroleum products -- Prices , Accounting and price fluctuations , Inflation (Finance) -- South Africa , Stock exchanges , Economics
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/43834 , vital:37051
- Description: Crude oil is an essential and strategic commodity in modern economies. Therefore, energy price fluctuations have the potential of affecting the economic welfare of a country. For instance, they have the potential to undermine the government’s attainment of its economic growth targets (National Treasury, 2016:2). The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) also considers oil price movements to be one of the major threats to currency volatility and the continued attainment of its inflation targets of about (3-6, per cent), as evidenced by numerous recent statements by its monetary policy committee (SARB, 2016:5-13). This study used co-integration tests to investigate the interaction between oil price shocks, exchange rates and stock market prices in South Africa over the period 1 January 2011 to 1 April 2018. The study employed the Johansen co-integration test. The results found no long run co-integration between oil prices, exchange rate and stock market prices. Therefore, this study adopted the VAR model for causality tests. Using the VAR model, this study found the existence of a unidirectional causality between stock prices and oil prices, with stock prices leading the oil prices changes. The all share index, resources and financials index were found to be significant variables to explain oil prices. This result is consistent with the business cycle view, which states that oil price fluctuations are mainly driven by demand factors. Furthermore, strong world output growth trends especially in emerging markets, could give rise to an upward surge in oil prices. The study also found that there is a weak correlation between stock price and exchange rate in South Africa. This is consistent with the asset approach. The findings of this study add to the already largely debated theories that seek to explain the relationship between the oil prices, exchange rates and stock market prices. The recommendation of this research is that, policy makers, researchers and investment bankers or fund managers who have interest or trade these financial instruments, may have to consider the role of stock market prices in the various sectors of the economy in their models for forecasting the path of the oil prices and the Rand/US Dollar exchange rate trend.
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- Date Issued: 2019
The relationship between cultural intelligence and cross-cultural psychological capital amongst expatriates
- Authors: Lamont, Mia Adri
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: Cultural intelligence , Business anthropology Management -- Cross-cultural studies Corporate culture Work environment
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/40467 , vital:36168
- Description: This study explored the relationship between Cross-cultural (CC) PsyCap and Cultural Intelligence (CQ) amongst expatriates. The literature review revealed preliminary relationships between the two constructs and illuminated the need to broaden and extend current research to expatriates specifically. The study followed a quantitative research design in the form of non-experimental, cross-sectional research using convenience and snowball sampling. A composite questionnaire comprising the CC PsyCap scale and Cultural Intelligence Scale (CQS) was used to measure CC PsyCap and CQ levels. This self-report measure was distributed via various social media platforms (N=102). Overall, the measurement models revealed high reliability in the present study. Although the modified hope subscale did not appear to be suited to the expatriate sample in the present study, confirmatory factor analysis revealed acceptable validity for both instruments overall. Significant differences were found in the means of CC PsyCap and CQ between demographic groups. Relationships between the constructs were tested through correlation-and regression analyses and several significant positive relationships were found between the constructs and their dimensions. Two of the strongest relationships found were between CC self-efficacy and CQ and between motivational CQ and CC PsyCap. Further, CC PsyCap was shown to account for a part of the variance in CQ and vice versa. This research adds to insights gained from the previously validated cross-cultural PsyCap measure and studies on the relationships between the two constructs.
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- Date Issued: 2019
The relationship between employee wellness and gratitude
- Authors: Jordaan, Chrizelle
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: Employee health promotion -- South Africa , Work environment -- Psychological aspects Gratitude Psychology, Industrial
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/39984 , vital:35636
- Description: A lack of research studies and available literature on the relationship between employee wellness and gratitude revealed enormous potential for further exploration and investigation, especially within a South African context. This is a relatively new field with limited literature and research evidence available. From the commencement of the research it was evident that there is possibility to successfully research if a relationship between employee wellness and gratitude exists, which formed the primary objective of the current study. The current study therefore aims to contribute to the existing body of knowledge regarding the possible relationship that exists between employee wellness and gratitude within South African organisations. The researcher utilised a quantitative research technique by making use of a composite questionnaire measuring employee wellness and gratitude respectively. The results were then analysed in an attempt to establish if a relationship exists between employee wellness and gratitude, based on the responses gathered from the research population. The research sample consisted of 121 employees working in the waste collection industry. A combination of the Mental Health Continuum – Short Form, Gratitude Questionnaire (6-item form) as well as a demographic variable information page was utilised to gather data for the current study. The results indicated that significant findings between the demographic variables and the individual constructs respectively, however, the relationship between the dimensions of employee wellness and gratitude was lower than expected. Based on the results obtained within this study, it was concluded that a small relationship exists between employee wellness and gratitude. Chapter 5 includes a discussion on the recommendations for both the organisation as well as future researchers.
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- Date Issued: 2019
The relationship between perceived ethical leadership and employee life-satisfaction in South Africa
- Authors: van Rooyen, Uné
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: Leadership -- Moral and ethical aspects , Leadership Business ethics Social responsibility of business
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/44100 , vital:37110
- Description: Leadership behaviour has a significant impact on follower outcomes. How leaders are perceived in terms of ethical leadership and integrity may have an impact on follower well-being. This non-experimental, correlational study aimed to determine the relationships between Ethical Leadership, employee Life-satisfaction and Job-satisfaction in South Africa. Perceived Leader Integrity was used as an indicator of Ethical Leadership. Employing the survey method, Ethical Leadership was measured with the Perceived Leadership Integrity Scale (PLIS), Life-satisfaction was measured with the Satisfaction with Life Scale (SWLS) and Job-satisfaction was measured with the Michigan Organisational Assessment Questionnaire Jobsatisfaction Subscale (MOAQ-JSS). The sample consisted of lower and middle managers in various organisations across different geographical locations in South Africa. Data was analysed using descriptive and inferential statistics, including Cronbach’s alpha testing, Person Product Moment correlation calculations as well as Independent samples T-tests and ANOVA statistics. The results indicated a positive, yet negligible relationship between Perceived Leader Integrity and Life-satisfaction, and a fair positive relationship between Perceived Leader Integrity and Job-satisfaction, as well as between Lifesatisfaction and Job-satisfaction. Despite several limitations, the study contributes to the current body of knowledge regarding leadership and well-being, specifically in a South African context. Recommendations for future research include cultural considerations, and more specific populations groups, among others.
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- Date Issued: 2019
The relationship between psychological capital and flourishing in the workplace
- Authors: De Reuck, Jani
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: Psychology, Industrial , Personnel management Human capital -- Psychological aspects
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/39491 , vital:35272
- Description: Sales employees are often the most important channel a company uses to execute their strategies and generate income. Psychological capital emerged from the field of positive organisational scholarship, which believes that individuals and organisations will benefit from unlocking hidden potentials of employees by focusing on their strengths and positive qualities, leading to overall subjective well-being, referred to as flourishing. The purpose of this study was to investigate the relationship between Psychological Capital and the Flourishing of retail sales employees. The current research study employed a descriptive, exploratory, quantitative and cross-sectional research design. Results were gathered through formal measurements using, The Psychological capital Questionnaire and the PERMA-Profiler and were analysed through the use of statistical measures. The Psychological Capital questionnaires were used to measure the construct of Psychological Capital (hope, resilience, optimism and self-efficacy). The PERMA-Profiler were utilised to measure the level of flourishing of the sample. Participants was selected by means of non-probability convenience sampling, while a sample of 350 retail sales employees employed at the three leading retail centres in Port Elizabeth, Eastern Cape, completed the questionnaires. Quantitative data obtained from the survey questionnaires, were analysed through the use of descriptive and inferential statistics. The Pearson product-moment correlation was used to determine the strength of the relationships between the variables and the level of significance was set at a 95% confidence interval level (p ≤ 0,05). Owing to the data being non-normal, the Kruskal Wallis test was used to compare the distribution of different populations and nonparametric post hoc, Mann-Whitney U test. Based on the findings, there was a significant relationship found between psychological capital and flourishing amongst the sample employees in the retail industry. It is therefore possible that those relationships may hold true for future studies, in different industries as well as different occupations. Further exploration of these constructs is required in the South African context to see if the result in the present study can be supported or not.
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- Date Issued: 2019
The relationship between reward preferences and occupational stress within the South African law environment
- Authors: Orban, Shanice
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: Psychology, Industrial , Stress (Psychology) -- Research Job stress
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/43101 , vital:36735
- Description: The primary objective of this dissertation was to investigate the relationship between reward preferences and occupational stress within the South African law environment. In order to achieve this objective, the researcher tested a theoretical model using regression analysis, and made use of Pearson’s Product Moment Correlations. A further aim was to investigate whether differences existed according to different types of lawyers with regards to these constructs. This was done using t-Tests and analysis of variance tests. The questionnaire was completed by a total of 207 lawyers spanning across 21 law firms, in both the Eastern and Western Cape. Data analysis was conducted using descriptive statistics which included frequency tables, and pie charts, and the aforementioned inferential statistics. The findings revealed a number of correlations between the factors of the two constructs, and significant differences with regards to the amount of stress experienced by employees within the law environment compared to the general population. The proposed theoretical model could be partially accepted as it showed that a correlation exists between Occupational Stress and the reward preference factors of Contingency Pay, Performance and Career Management, Quality Work Environment and Work/Home Integration, with no significant correlation between Occupational Stress and Base Pay and Benefits. Moreover, there was a statistically significant correlation between Distress and Reward Preferences, with no significant correlation between Coping Ability and Reward Preferences. The results of this study theoretically contribute to the area of reward preferences, and have uncovered a new area whereby reward preferences are shown to be related to occupational stress. The findings of this study hold important implications for the effective management and retention of key employees in the law environment within the South African context.
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- Date Issued: 2019
The relationship between reward preferences, psychological empowerment and emotional intelligence within the investment banking industry in South Africa
- Authors: Michalopoulos, Maria
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: Incentives in industry -- South Africa , Emotional intelligence -- South Africa Investment banking -- South Africa Financial services industry -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/41095 , vital:36295
- Description: The primary objective of this dissertation was to investigate the relationship between reward preferences, psychological empowerment and emotional intelligence (EQ) within the investment banking industry in South Africa. The researcher tested a theoretical model using regression analysis and made use of Pearson’s Product Moment Correlations in order to reach this objective. The secondary aim was to determine whether any differences existed according to job level with regards to these three constructs. This was achieved through using analysis of variance and Tukey’s HSD test. A questionnaire comprised of the Reward Preferences Questionnaire, Psychological Empowerment Questionnaire and Schutte Self-report Emotional Intelligence test was completed by a total of 221 investment banking professionals and managers, working within South Africa from several different private banking firms, as well as from larger institutional banks across the country. Data analysis was conducted using descriptive statistics, including frequency tables and pie charts, as well as the inferential statistics mentioned above. The findings revealed a number of correlations between the three constructs, as well as significant differences between job levels. The proposed theoretical model could be partially accepted as it showed that emotional intelligence acts as a partial mediator only when predicting Contingency Pay as a reward preference via psychological empowerment. In addition, emotional intelligence acts as a predictor for psychological empowerment and its subfactors, as well as the subconstructs that comprise reward preferences. These results provide topical insight into this line of research, as well as having contributed theoretically to these three constructs. Additionally, a gap in research was unveiled showing the various connections found between reward preferences, psychological empowerment and emotional intelligence. The findings of this study offer valuable implications concerning the effective management and performance of employees within the investment banking industry of South Africa.
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- Date Issued: 2019
The relationship between stock market development and economic growth in Africa
- Authors: Mkhize, Siyanda
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: Stock exchanges -- Africa , Africa -- Economic conditions -- 21st century , Economic development -- Africa -- 21st century , Capital market -- Africa , Finance -- Africa -- 21st century , Developing countries -- Economic conditions -- 21st century
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/115149 , vital:34082
- Description: Over the years there has been a substantial increase in the number of African stock markets. This has generated much interest from local and foreign investors, as these stock markets have had high returns. These conditions have created an interesting scenario for investigating the relationship between stock market development and economic growth. However, this opportunity has largely been neglected as the research on African stock market development is limited in developing economies relative to research conducted in developed countries. Furthermore, the research that has been conducted on the relationship between stock market development and economic growth in Africa, has generated inconclusive and conflicting results, in addition to this, the institutional quality of African countries is disregarded in most studies when the stock market development and economic growth nexus is analysed. Therefore, this study aims to explore the relationship between stock market development and economic growth, incorporating institution variables to account for the institutional quality of African countries to provide clarity in this context. To achieve this, two sets of research hypotheses were created the first set aims to determine whether stock development has an influence on economic growth. The second set is to determine if there is any causal relationship between stock market development and economic growth. The study utilizes System Generalized Method of Moments models to examine the effect of stock market development on economic growth, in 18 African countries for the period 2003- 2016. The results indicate that market capitalization has a positive influence on economic growth whilst, contrastingly liquidity in the form of value traded has a negative effect on economic growth. The study further analyses the causal relationship between stock market development and economic growth, by employing the recently developed PVAR-Granger causality test. However, before this is done several Pedroni cointegration tests were first conducted to establish whether a long-term relationship exists between stock market development and economic growth, which revealed that no strong evidence of cointegration exists necessitating the use of a PVAR-Granger causality test. The PVAR-Granger causality test reveals that stock market development granger causes economic growth, irrespective of the stock market development measure used and there is no feedback effect from economic growth. The unilateral causality established in this study flowing from stock market development to economic growth supports the supply-leading hypothesis. The overall results of this study demonstrate that there is ambiguity on the impact of stock market development on economic growth, as the measures of stock market development have contrasting impacts on economic growth. The size component of stock market development in the form of market capitalization has positive influence whilst, liquidity in form of total value traded has a negative effect. However, the causal relationship is clearly shown to be unilaterally flowing from stock market development to economic growth.
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- Date Issued: 2019
The role of agricultural support programmes on the livelihoods of smallholder maize farmers in Lesotho: asset utilisation, productivity and perceptions
- Authors: Mohlahatsa, Taole
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: Agriculture and state -- Lesotho , Agriculture -- Economic aspects -- Lesotho , Farms, Small -- Government policy -- Lesotho , Farms, Small -- Lesotho , Agricultural assistance -- Lesotho , Rural development -- Lesotho
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/71580 , vital:29914
- Description: The agricultural sector is widely considered an important contributor to economic development in least developed countries. It plays an important role in Lesotho and has been the backbone of rural activities and the prime employer of Basotho citizens. Smallholder farming is recognised by the government of Lesotho as a vehicle for addressing food security and poverty reduction. Maize is the principal staple crop produced by about 90 percent of farmers in Lesotho and it constitutes about 80 percent of the Basotho diet. Maize production is highly affected by climate change and is characterised by fluctuating yields because of erratic rainfall. In addition to unfavorable climate change, smallholder farmers in Lesotho experience challenges such as lack of farming inputs, limited access to markets and limited financial capital. These constraints confine them to a life of subsistence farming with low production and increased incidences of poverty. The government of Lesotho has intervened in the smallholder agricultural sector to stimulate production and productivity by introducing some agricultural programmes such as (i) the National Fertiliser and Input subsidy, (ii) the Smallholder Agricultural Development Programme, (iii) the National Block Farming, and (iv) the Integrated Watershed Management Programme. However, despite such government interventions, production in the smallholder agricultural sector continues to face recurring constraints. Studies on the National Block Farming Programme have showed that the programme has had limited impact on the livelihoods of smallholder farmers. Furthermore, farmers believe the Integrated Watershed Management Programme has a biased selection criteria as selection of areas is influenced by politicians who favour areas where they have a large political following and marginilise other areas. These concerns have also led to low participation rates in such programmes as wealthier, large scale farmers capture most of the benefits of government programmes. Disproportionate benefits of agricultural programmes to smallholder farmers imply that they continue to face the same constraints in production and have to find alternative ways of maintaining production and selling excess produce to sustain their livelihoods. The main goal of this research is therefore to study the livelihoods of smallholder maize farmers in Lesotho and how agricultural support programmes influence their production of maize. The study adopted a pragmatic mixed methods approach with a qualitative dominant sequential design. Accordingly, both quantitative and qualitative data was used to address the research goal. Quantitative data collected from the Lesotho Bureau of Statistics and the World Bank was used for trend analysis on maize productivity, temperature and rainfall over the period 1980-2016. Qualitative primary data was collected by conducting focus group discussions with smallholder maize farmers and key stakeholder interviews using the sustainable livelihood framework as a conceptual guide. The study comprised of a total of 85 research participants consisting of 75 smallholder maize farmers and 10 key stakeholders. Farmers were selected from 10 key maize producing areas in Leribe and Mafeteng districts in Leribe. Results revealed fluctuating maize productivity and productivity growth rates where such fluctuations are caused by government intervention and natural calamities in the form of erratic rains and dry spells. Droughts and late arrival of subsidised inputs are the chief constraints to maize production. In relation to livelihood assets, human and social assets are the more available assets relative to other assets (financial, natural and physical) of the sustainable livelihood framework. Furthermore, the National Fertiliser and Input subsidy Programme and the Smallholder Agricultural Development Programme are the most beneficial programmes to farmers livelihoods as they increase the accessibility of limited livelihood assets and therefore allowing farmers to achieve their livelihood goals. In contrast, the National Block Farming and the Integrated Watershed Management Programme are the least beneficial programmes to farmers’ livelihoods and are biased in their geographical targeting criteria. The study recommends that the government revises all selected support programmes in this study in areas warranting improvements so as to fairly and efficiently allocate resources that meet the needs of farmers. The study also recommends that farmers put more effort in adopting new technologies and strategies to improve production of maize in areas where government intervention has failed.
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- Date Issued: 2019
The role of Information and Communication Technology in developing entrepreneurial skills in marginalised communities: the case of Grahamstown
- Authors: Mabika, Vinia Ruvimbo
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: Occupational training -- South Africa , Entrepreneurship -- South Africa , Vocational education -- South Africa , Information technology -- Study and teaching -- South Africa , Businesspeople, Black -- South Africa -- Makhanda , Businesspeople -- South Africa -- Makhanda , Non-governmental organizations -- South Africa -- Makhanda
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/94169 , vital:31012
- Description: A call to meet the Sustainable Development Goals by 2030 was made by the United Nations in 2015 after the expiry of the Millennium Development Goals. This has led to the need for youth entrepreneurship studies in marginalised communities that are burdened by poverty. The marginalised communities in South Africa, where most poor unemployed people live face numerous challenges. These range from a shortage of skilled people, inequality, poverty, poor infrastructure and lack of formal and informal skills development for communities. Employing information and communication technologies (ICTs) has the potential to improve socio-economic activities, aid comprehensive human development and empower communities. To ensure human development, provision of ICTs to communities should be accompanied by approaches and guidelines that can be used to empower them through entrepreneurship. This requires investigating how ICTs can lead to the empowerment of unemployed citizens within a community. Specifically, the types of tailored ICT skills that are needed to access such empowerment opportunities and are typically taught at skills development programmes (SDPs). An interpretivist, qualitative case study approach was employed during the investigation of four skills development programmes in Grahamstown (Eastern Cape). The participants included programme directors, managers, trainees who had become entrepreneurs after attending training and those who had not started a business yet. Semi-structured interviews were employed for data collection and thematic analysis was used to analyse the data; while making use of absorptive capacity theory (ACT) as a theoretical framework. The researcher sought to answer the following main question: How should ICT-based skills development programmes be applied to enhance entrepreneurial skills within marginalised communities? To answer this, the research contributes by proposing a guideline that can be implemented to address the skills shortage in Grahamstown. The first stage requires a community needs assessment, looking at the community members prior and related knowledge. Secondly, the SDPs should create a culture of learning by transforming participants’ mindsets through core programmes. Thirdly, the core programmes should be linked with ICT skills training. After training is completed, the SDPs and external world bodies should assist with follow up support courses. During all these stages monitoring and evaluation should be implemented, and all key stakeholders should be involved.
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- Date Issued: 2019