Bank credit extension to the private sector and inflation in South Africa
- Authors: Dlamini, Samuel Nkosinathi
- Date: 2009
- Subjects: Bank loans -- South Africa , Inflation (Finance) -- South Africa , Money supply -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Banks and banking -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:959 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002693 , Bank loans -- South Africa , Inflation (Finance) -- South Africa , Money supply -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Banks and banking -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa
- Description: This study investigates the contribution of bank credit extension to the private sector to inflation in South Africa, covering the period 1970:1-2006:4. The long-run impact of bank credit on inflation is investigated by means of the Johansen co integration model. The short-run ynamics of the inflation is subsequently modelled by means of the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). Using the Johansen methodology, the study identifies two co integrating equations linking inflation and its eterminants. The results suggest that the long-run relationship between inflation and bank credit to the private sector is negative and statistically significant at 10% level. The determinants that are significant at 5% level are: money supply, real gross domestic product, the money market rate, rand/dollar exchange rate and imports. The results are consistent with previous findings. The speed of adjustment in response to deviation from the equilibrium path was found to be negative at 10.56% per quarter, which is consistent with findings by Ohnsorge and Oomes (2003) for Russia. Both the signs and the magnitude of the coefficients suggest that the co integrating vector describes a long-run inflation equation. The impulse response functions confirm the theoretical expectations except for the import prices. The most persistent and significant shocks observed are on impulse response functions of money supply and bank credit to the private sector. The variance decomposition results also suggest that inflation responds quicker to innovations from money supply and the money market rate. The overall results provide evidence that the surge in inflation is associated with an increase in money supply as well as the instability in exchange rate. The effects of exchange rate fluctuation on inflation are reflected through changes in import prices. Based on the results we conclude that an increase in bank credit during the period 1970:1-2006:4 had a negative mpact on inflation in South Africa.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2009
- Authors: Dlamini, Samuel Nkosinathi
- Date: 2009
- Subjects: Bank loans -- South Africa , Inflation (Finance) -- South Africa , Money supply -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Banks and banking -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:959 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002693 , Bank loans -- South Africa , Inflation (Finance) -- South Africa , Money supply -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Banks and banking -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa
- Description: This study investigates the contribution of bank credit extension to the private sector to inflation in South Africa, covering the period 1970:1-2006:4. The long-run impact of bank credit on inflation is investigated by means of the Johansen co integration model. The short-run ynamics of the inflation is subsequently modelled by means of the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). Using the Johansen methodology, the study identifies two co integrating equations linking inflation and its eterminants. The results suggest that the long-run relationship between inflation and bank credit to the private sector is negative and statistically significant at 10% level. The determinants that are significant at 5% level are: money supply, real gross domestic product, the money market rate, rand/dollar exchange rate and imports. The results are consistent with previous findings. The speed of adjustment in response to deviation from the equilibrium path was found to be negative at 10.56% per quarter, which is consistent with findings by Ohnsorge and Oomes (2003) for Russia. Both the signs and the magnitude of the coefficients suggest that the co integrating vector describes a long-run inflation equation. The impulse response functions confirm the theoretical expectations except for the import prices. The most persistent and significant shocks observed are on impulse response functions of money supply and bank credit to the private sector. The variance decomposition results also suggest that inflation responds quicker to innovations from money supply and the money market rate. The overall results provide evidence that the surge in inflation is associated with an increase in money supply as well as the instability in exchange rate. The effects of exchange rate fluctuation on inflation are reflected through changes in import prices. Based on the results we conclude that an increase in bank credit during the period 1970:1-2006:4 had a negative mpact on inflation in South Africa.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2009
The relationship between interest rates and inflation in South Africa : revisiting Fisher's hypothesis
- Mitchell-Innes, Henry Alexander
- Authors: Mitchell-Innes, Henry Alexander
- Date: 2006
- Subjects: Fisher effect (Economics) , Interest rates -- South Africa , Interest rates -- Effect of inflation -- South Africa , Inflation (Finance) -- South Africa , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Banks and banking, Central -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic conditions
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:991 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002726 , Fisher effect (Economics) , Interest rates -- South Africa , Interest rates -- Effect of inflation -- South Africa , Inflation (Finance) -- South Africa , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Banks and banking, Central -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic conditions
- Description: This thesis investigates the relationship between expected inflation and nominal interest rates in South Africa and the extent to which the Fisher effect hypothesis holds. The hypothesis, proposed by Fisher (1930), that the nominal rate of interest should reflect movements in the expected rate of inflation has been the subject of much empirical research in many industrialised countries. This wealth of literature can be attributed to various factors including the pivotal role that the nominal rate of interest and, perhaps more importantly, the real rate of interest plays in the economy. The validity of the Fisher effect also has important implications for monetary policy and needs to be considered by central banks. Few studies have been conducted in South Africa to validate this important hypothesis. The analysis uses the 3-month bankers’ acceptance rate and the 10-year government bond rate to proxy both short- and long-term interest rates. The existence of a long-run unit proportional relationship between nominal interest rates and expected inflation is tested using Johansen’s cointegration test. The data is analysed for the period April 2000 to July 2005 as the research aims to establish whether the Fisher relationship holds within an inflation targeting monetary policy framework. The short-run Fisher effect is not empirically verified. This is due to the effects of the monetary policy transmission mechanism and implies that short-term nominal interest rates are a good indication of the stance of monetary policy. A long-run cointegrating relationship is established between long-term interest rates and expected inflation. The long-run adjustment is less than unity, which can be attributed to the credibility of the inflation-targeting framework.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2006
- Authors: Mitchell-Innes, Henry Alexander
- Date: 2006
- Subjects: Fisher effect (Economics) , Interest rates -- South Africa , Interest rates -- Effect of inflation -- South Africa , Inflation (Finance) -- South Africa , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Banks and banking, Central -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic conditions
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:991 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002726 , Fisher effect (Economics) , Interest rates -- South Africa , Interest rates -- Effect of inflation -- South Africa , Inflation (Finance) -- South Africa , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Banks and banking, Central -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic conditions
- Description: This thesis investigates the relationship between expected inflation and nominal interest rates in South Africa and the extent to which the Fisher effect hypothesis holds. The hypothesis, proposed by Fisher (1930), that the nominal rate of interest should reflect movements in the expected rate of inflation has been the subject of much empirical research in many industrialised countries. This wealth of literature can be attributed to various factors including the pivotal role that the nominal rate of interest and, perhaps more importantly, the real rate of interest plays in the economy. The validity of the Fisher effect also has important implications for monetary policy and needs to be considered by central banks. Few studies have been conducted in South Africa to validate this important hypothesis. The analysis uses the 3-month bankers’ acceptance rate and the 10-year government bond rate to proxy both short- and long-term interest rates. The existence of a long-run unit proportional relationship between nominal interest rates and expected inflation is tested using Johansen’s cointegration test. The data is analysed for the period April 2000 to July 2005 as the research aims to establish whether the Fisher relationship holds within an inflation targeting monetary policy framework. The short-run Fisher effect is not empirically verified. This is due to the effects of the monetary policy transmission mechanism and implies that short-term nominal interest rates are a good indication of the stance of monetary policy. A long-run cointegrating relationship is established between long-term interest rates and expected inflation. The long-run adjustment is less than unity, which can be attributed to the credibility of the inflation-targeting framework.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2006
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