Analysis of the relationship between changes in macroeconomic variables and various sector price indices of JSE
- Mapanda, Tungamirai Chisvuvo
- Authors: Mapanda, Tungamirai Chisvuvo
- Date: 2020
- Subjects: Johannesburg Stock Exchange , Stock price indexes -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/147445 , vital:38637
- Description: Purpose- The purpose of this paper is to analyse the relationship between changes in domestic macroeconomic variables and various indices of the JSE during the full time period, June 1995 to December 2018 and the sub-periods, June 1995 to June 2007 and July 2007 to December 2018. Design/ methodology/ approach- The paper employs the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model approach to cointegration using monthly data from June 1995 to December 2018. Findings- In terms of the long run, the results show that the coincident indicator measure of domestic economic activity is positively and significantly related to the various JSE indices for all study periods. In terms of inflation, the results show no relationship between inflation rate and the various indices for both whole period and June 1995 to June 2007 sub period. However for the July 2007 to December 2018 sub period, JSE All Share Index and JSE Top 40 Index are negatively related. For the real effective exchange rate, only the Consumer Services Index is positively related to the exchange rate in terms of June 1995 to June 2007 sub period. However, JSE All Share Index and JSE Top 40 Index are negatively related to the exchange rate in all study periods. In terms of the short term interest rate, for the whole period, JSE All Share Index, JSE Top 40 Index, Health Care Index and Telecommunications Index are negatively related to interest rate. In terms of the June 1995 to June 2007 sub period, JSE All Share Index and Industrials Index are negatively related to the short term interest rate. For the July 2007 to December 2018 sub period, Telecommunications Index and Technology Index are negatively related. In terms of the short run, the coincident indicator is positively and significantly related to the various JSE indices for all study periods. Inflation is not significantly related to any index in the whole period. In terms of the June 1995 to June 2007 sub period, Industrials Index and Financials Index are positively related to inflation and in the July 2007 to December 2018 sub period, Consumer Goods Index, Health Index and Consumer Services Index are negatively related to the inflation rate. The real effective exchange rate is positively and significantly related to the various JSE indices in the different study periods. In terms of the short term interest rate, for the whole period and the June 1995 to June 2007 sub period only the Technology Index is not significantly and negatively related to the short term interest rate, but for the July 2007 to December 2018 sub period, Top 40 Index, Telecommunications Index and Technology Index are positively related to the interest rate. Only the Financial Index is negatively related to short term interest rates during this sub period. Research Limitations- Not a lot literature was found on the relationship between macroeconomic variables and the various sector indices of the JSE. Most previous work, in the South African context focused just on the JSE All Share Index. Practical Implications- The findings can help investors diversify their portfolios into indices that benefit from expected changes in macroeconomic variables, such as recessions, rising interest rates, rising inflation or a weakening exchange rate. Alternatively, they can hedge themselves against the negative implications of such macroeconomic changes on portfolio performance. In addition, the findings are important for the monetary authorities to better understand the implications of their policy changes on financial markets.
- Full Text:
- Authors: Mapanda, Tungamirai Chisvuvo
- Date: 2020
- Subjects: Johannesburg Stock Exchange , Stock price indexes -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/147445 , vital:38637
- Description: Purpose- The purpose of this paper is to analyse the relationship between changes in domestic macroeconomic variables and various indices of the JSE during the full time period, June 1995 to December 2018 and the sub-periods, June 1995 to June 2007 and July 2007 to December 2018. Design/ methodology/ approach- The paper employs the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model approach to cointegration using monthly data from June 1995 to December 2018. Findings- In terms of the long run, the results show that the coincident indicator measure of domestic economic activity is positively and significantly related to the various JSE indices for all study periods. In terms of inflation, the results show no relationship between inflation rate and the various indices for both whole period and June 1995 to June 2007 sub period. However for the July 2007 to December 2018 sub period, JSE All Share Index and JSE Top 40 Index are negatively related. For the real effective exchange rate, only the Consumer Services Index is positively related to the exchange rate in terms of June 1995 to June 2007 sub period. However, JSE All Share Index and JSE Top 40 Index are negatively related to the exchange rate in all study periods. In terms of the short term interest rate, for the whole period, JSE All Share Index, JSE Top 40 Index, Health Care Index and Telecommunications Index are negatively related to interest rate. In terms of the June 1995 to June 2007 sub period, JSE All Share Index and Industrials Index are negatively related to the short term interest rate. For the July 2007 to December 2018 sub period, Telecommunications Index and Technology Index are negatively related. In terms of the short run, the coincident indicator is positively and significantly related to the various JSE indices for all study periods. Inflation is not significantly related to any index in the whole period. In terms of the June 1995 to June 2007 sub period, Industrials Index and Financials Index are positively related to inflation and in the July 2007 to December 2018 sub period, Consumer Goods Index, Health Index and Consumer Services Index are negatively related to the inflation rate. The real effective exchange rate is positively and significantly related to the various JSE indices in the different study periods. In terms of the short term interest rate, for the whole period and the June 1995 to June 2007 sub period only the Technology Index is not significantly and negatively related to the short term interest rate, but for the July 2007 to December 2018 sub period, Top 40 Index, Telecommunications Index and Technology Index are positively related to the interest rate. Only the Financial Index is negatively related to short term interest rates during this sub period. Research Limitations- Not a lot literature was found on the relationship between macroeconomic variables and the various sector indices of the JSE. Most previous work, in the South African context focused just on the JSE All Share Index. Practical Implications- The findings can help investors diversify their portfolios into indices that benefit from expected changes in macroeconomic variables, such as recessions, rising interest rates, rising inflation or a weakening exchange rate. Alternatively, they can hedge themselves against the negative implications of such macroeconomic changes on portfolio performance. In addition, the findings are important for the monetary authorities to better understand the implications of their policy changes on financial markets.
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Market timing and portfolio returns: an empirical analysis of the potential profitability of buy-sell strategies, based on South African equities 2009-2018
- Authors: Mulweli, Ramulongo
- Date: 2020
- Subjects: Johannesburg Stock Exchange , Stocks -- Charts, diagrams, etc. , Investment analysis -- South Africa , Stocks -- South Africa , Stocks -- South Africa -- Cast studies
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/144487 , vital:38350
- Description: South Africa’s financial markets have become larger and more complex over recent decades. The number of market participants who are using technical analysis techniques to predict the market’s movement has been growing rapidly. This research aims to investigate if historical share prices can be used when forecasting the market’s direction and to examine the profitability of the Japanese candlestick patterns. The study is based on ten companies selected from the JSE top 40 2019 composition. These are Aspen Pharmacy Holding, Capitec Bank Holding LTD, Discovery LTD, Kumba Iron Ore LTD, Mondi PLC, Mr. Price Group LTD, MTN Group LTD, Naspers LTD, SASOL LTD, and Shoprite Holdings LTD. These were selected from the JSE top 40 based on market capitalization and sector. This research analyzes eight candlestick reversal patterns; four are bullish patterns namely: doji star, hammer, bullish engulfing and the piercing lines and the other four are bearish patterns namely: shooting star, hanging man, bearish engulfing and the dark cloud cover. The ARCH and GARCH models are used to test for correlation between past share prices and future share prices and the binomial test and the mean return calculations were used to test the profitability of candlestick patterns. The sample is from Thomson DataStream 2019 and IRESS SA 2019 and covers ten years with 2496 observations starting from 02 January 2009 to 31 December 2018. The findings from the ARCH and GARCH tests revealed that there is a serial correlation between the returns from the previous day and the returns for the current day. The results from the mean returns and the binomial tests show strong evidence that the shooting star, hanging man, bearish engulfing and the bulling engulfing are statistically significant in predicting the share price movements. On the other hand, there was no evidence that the dark cloud cover, piercing lines, and the bullish doji can predict share price movements. Additionally, further studies on this topic could be improved by adding different candlestick patterns and the total number of companies analyzed. The results could also be improved by analyzing the candlestick reversal patterns when they are used with other trading rules such as support resistance levels and oscillators.
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- Authors: Mulweli, Ramulongo
- Date: 2020
- Subjects: Johannesburg Stock Exchange , Stocks -- Charts, diagrams, etc. , Investment analysis -- South Africa , Stocks -- South Africa , Stocks -- South Africa -- Cast studies
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/144487 , vital:38350
- Description: South Africa’s financial markets have become larger and more complex over recent decades. The number of market participants who are using technical analysis techniques to predict the market’s movement has been growing rapidly. This research aims to investigate if historical share prices can be used when forecasting the market’s direction and to examine the profitability of the Japanese candlestick patterns. The study is based on ten companies selected from the JSE top 40 2019 composition. These are Aspen Pharmacy Holding, Capitec Bank Holding LTD, Discovery LTD, Kumba Iron Ore LTD, Mondi PLC, Mr. Price Group LTD, MTN Group LTD, Naspers LTD, SASOL LTD, and Shoprite Holdings LTD. These were selected from the JSE top 40 based on market capitalization and sector. This research analyzes eight candlestick reversal patterns; four are bullish patterns namely: doji star, hammer, bullish engulfing and the piercing lines and the other four are bearish patterns namely: shooting star, hanging man, bearish engulfing and the dark cloud cover. The ARCH and GARCH models are used to test for correlation between past share prices and future share prices and the binomial test and the mean return calculations were used to test the profitability of candlestick patterns. The sample is from Thomson DataStream 2019 and IRESS SA 2019 and covers ten years with 2496 observations starting from 02 January 2009 to 31 December 2018. The findings from the ARCH and GARCH tests revealed that there is a serial correlation between the returns from the previous day and the returns for the current day. The results from the mean returns and the binomial tests show strong evidence that the shooting star, hanging man, bearish engulfing and the bulling engulfing are statistically significant in predicting the share price movements. On the other hand, there was no evidence that the dark cloud cover, piercing lines, and the bullish doji can predict share price movements. Additionally, further studies on this topic could be improved by adding different candlestick patterns and the total number of companies analyzed. The results could also be improved by analyzing the candlestick reversal patterns when they are used with other trading rules such as support resistance levels and oscillators.
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The predictive ability of the yield spread in timing the stock exchange: a South African case
- Authors: Cook, Jenna
- Date: 2020
- Subjects: Stocks -- Mathematical models , Probits , Johannesburg Stock Exchange
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/147025 , vital:38586
- Description: The use of the yield curve in forecasting economic recessions is well established in the literature. A new avenue of use for the yield curve has emerged in the form of using it to forecast bull and bear stock markets. This has the potential to change how investors manage portfolios. A dynamic market-timing strategy would allow investors to shift out of or in to stock markets based on the probability of bear stock market in the future. The relationship between the yield curve and the stock market is tested using an adapted probit model. This has proven positive with encouraging results for the US, India and Spain. This is tested for South Africa using the adapted probit model and the SA yield spread. Bear stock markets are identified on the JSE and forms part of the probit modelling process. Bear markets are identified using a six- and four-month criteria. As South Africa is a small, open and developing economy, the probit is also modelled using the US yield spread. The three probit models do not appear to track bear markets well. This is substantiated through the Henriksson-Merton parametric model test which tests for market timing ability. The results for the SA yield spread using both bear market criteria do not show market timing ability, however, the SA and US yield spread model does show potential market timing ability.
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- Authors: Cook, Jenna
- Date: 2020
- Subjects: Stocks -- Mathematical models , Probits , Johannesburg Stock Exchange
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/147025 , vital:38586
- Description: The use of the yield curve in forecasting economic recessions is well established in the literature. A new avenue of use for the yield curve has emerged in the form of using it to forecast bull and bear stock markets. This has the potential to change how investors manage portfolios. A dynamic market-timing strategy would allow investors to shift out of or in to stock markets based on the probability of bear stock market in the future. The relationship between the yield curve and the stock market is tested using an adapted probit model. This has proven positive with encouraging results for the US, India and Spain. This is tested for South Africa using the adapted probit model and the SA yield spread. Bear stock markets are identified on the JSE and forms part of the probit modelling process. Bear markets are identified using a six- and four-month criteria. As South Africa is a small, open and developing economy, the probit is also modelled using the US yield spread. The three probit models do not appear to track bear markets well. This is substantiated through the Henriksson-Merton parametric model test which tests for market timing ability. The results for the SA yield spread using both bear market criteria do not show market timing ability, however, the SA and US yield spread model does show potential market timing ability.
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Inflation hedging with South African common stocks: a JSE sectoral analysis
- Authors: Kawawa, Dennis
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: Johannesburg Stock Exchange , Inflation (Finance) -- South Africa , Hedging (Finance)-- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/71526 , vital:29861
- Description: Inflation risk erodes purchasing power, redistributes wealth from lenders to borrowers and threatens investor’s long-term objectives, which are often specified in real terms; financial market volatility presents an additional risk for investors and portfolio managers concerned with not only real returns but also absolute returns. Understanding key investment risks, of which inflation is one, is crucial for investment managers in order to design effective hedging strategies to preserve wealth over the long run. Empirical tests of the Fisher hypothesis in South Africa have shown that common stocks are a good hedge against inflation. However, empirical evidence from developed countries has also shown that the relationship between common stocks and inflation is heterogeneous across the sectors and industries. This paper analysed the sectoral differences in the hedging ability of South African common stocks to test for this heterogeneity. The paper presents disaggregated sector models to test heterogeneity across the eight sectors of the JSE securities exchange. Understanding which of these sectors offers the best hedge against inflation is important to investors, allowing them to place money where the value will be best preserved during times of higher inflation. The disaggregated sectors tested included the Basic Materials price index, Industrials price index, Consumer Goods price index, Health Care price index, Consumer Services price index, Telecommunications price index, Financials price index, and Technology price index. Johansen Cointegration techniques were employed to empirically test the Fisher hypothesis for the South African market. For the Fisher hypothesis to hold, this paper was required to find evidence of cointegration between the share indices and CPI, as well as a positive slope coefficient for the cointegrating regression. The results of the cointegration test showed that the All Share index and each of disaggregated sector indices were cointegrated with CPI. This implied that a long run relationship exists between common stocks and inflation. Two techniques were used to estimate the cointegrating regressions for each model, a standard long-run cointegrating regression normalizing on the share index and a Vector error correction model (VECM). For all the models both techniques reveal a positive relationship between common stock and CPI with the coefficients for the long run cointegrating regression derived from the various models ranging between 1.41 – 3.62 while the coefficients from the VECM ranged from 1.42 - 4.85. The varying coefficients provide evidence of the heterogeneity of the hedging ability of common stocks. Overall the evidence from the long run cointegration regression suggests that in times of high inflation investors are most compensated for changes in inflation in common stocks relating to the Consumer Services and Health Care sectors, but that in general all sectors of the JSE provide some hedge for inflation. The results suggest that investors are compensated for changes in inflation if they invest in specific industries rather than in the All Share index, thus diversifying portfolios could provide a better hedge for inflation. Although positive coefficients were found the weak exogeneity test revealed only technology Index was caused by changes in CPI. The Paper concluded that in the long run all sectors provided protection against inflation during the period of study, but the evidence only fully supports the Fisher hypothesis for the Technology index, due to the results of the weak exogeneity test that revealed that CPI is weakly exogenous only in the equation of the Technology index.
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- Authors: Kawawa, Dennis
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: Johannesburg Stock Exchange , Inflation (Finance) -- South Africa , Hedging (Finance)-- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/71526 , vital:29861
- Description: Inflation risk erodes purchasing power, redistributes wealth from lenders to borrowers and threatens investor’s long-term objectives, which are often specified in real terms; financial market volatility presents an additional risk for investors and portfolio managers concerned with not only real returns but also absolute returns. Understanding key investment risks, of which inflation is one, is crucial for investment managers in order to design effective hedging strategies to preserve wealth over the long run. Empirical tests of the Fisher hypothesis in South Africa have shown that common stocks are a good hedge against inflation. However, empirical evidence from developed countries has also shown that the relationship between common stocks and inflation is heterogeneous across the sectors and industries. This paper analysed the sectoral differences in the hedging ability of South African common stocks to test for this heterogeneity. The paper presents disaggregated sector models to test heterogeneity across the eight sectors of the JSE securities exchange. Understanding which of these sectors offers the best hedge against inflation is important to investors, allowing them to place money where the value will be best preserved during times of higher inflation. The disaggregated sectors tested included the Basic Materials price index, Industrials price index, Consumer Goods price index, Health Care price index, Consumer Services price index, Telecommunications price index, Financials price index, and Technology price index. Johansen Cointegration techniques were employed to empirically test the Fisher hypothesis for the South African market. For the Fisher hypothesis to hold, this paper was required to find evidence of cointegration between the share indices and CPI, as well as a positive slope coefficient for the cointegrating regression. The results of the cointegration test showed that the All Share index and each of disaggregated sector indices were cointegrated with CPI. This implied that a long run relationship exists between common stocks and inflation. Two techniques were used to estimate the cointegrating regressions for each model, a standard long-run cointegrating regression normalizing on the share index and a Vector error correction model (VECM). For all the models both techniques reveal a positive relationship between common stock and CPI with the coefficients for the long run cointegrating regression derived from the various models ranging between 1.41 – 3.62 while the coefficients from the VECM ranged from 1.42 - 4.85. The varying coefficients provide evidence of the heterogeneity of the hedging ability of common stocks. Overall the evidence from the long run cointegration regression suggests that in times of high inflation investors are most compensated for changes in inflation in common stocks relating to the Consumer Services and Health Care sectors, but that in general all sectors of the JSE provide some hedge for inflation. The results suggest that investors are compensated for changes in inflation if they invest in specific industries rather than in the All Share index, thus diversifying portfolios could provide a better hedge for inflation. Although positive coefficients were found the weak exogeneity test revealed only technology Index was caused by changes in CPI. The Paper concluded that in the long run all sectors provided protection against inflation during the period of study, but the evidence only fully supports the Fisher hypothesis for the Technology index, due to the results of the weak exogeneity test that revealed that CPI is weakly exogenous only in the equation of the Technology index.
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Evaluating the share performance of socially responsible investment on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange
- Authors: Cormack, Bradley Alexander
- Date: 2017
- Subjects: Investments -- Moral and ethical aspects -- South Africa , Johannesburg Stock Exchange , Social responsibility of business -- Standards , Social responsiblity of business -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MBA
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/36251 , vital:24532
- Description: Socially responsible investing (SRI) integrates environmental, social and governance (ESG) issues into the investment decision-making process. Growing ESG concerns and the uncovering of corporate scandals have catalysed the substantial growth in SRI portfolios worldwide. Notwithstanding its increasing popularity, barriers to further SRI growth have been identified. Traditional investing practices suggest that theoretically, SRI may underperform conventional investment strategies. However, despite the vast amount of literature on SRI, empirical studies have yielded a mixture of results regarding fund performance. The JSE SRI Index was launched in 2004 to promote transparent business practices. It was discontinued at the end of 2015 succeeded by a new Responsible Investment Index established by the JSE in association with FTSE Russell. The aim of the research was to evaluate the share performance of the JSE SRI Index from 2004-2015. Additionally, the indices were categorised by environmental impact to further analyse disparity among share returns. The study was also divided into two sub-periods, 2004-2009 and 2010-2015, with the latter following the endorsement of integrated reporting by the King III Code as a listing requirement in 2010. A single-factor Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) was used to assess differences in risk-adjusted returns. Engle-Granger and Johansen tests were employed to explore the possibility of a cointegrating relationship between the indices. No significant difference between returns was observed for 2004-2009, with the SRI Index exhibiting statistically significant inferior risk-adjusted returns for the latter half of the study. Overall, a significant difference between share returns was found, with CAPM results suggesting that the JSE SRI Index underperformed the All Share Index by -2.33% per annum throughout the time span of the study. Engle-Granger and Johansen test results indicated the existence of a cointegrating relationship over the first half of the study. However, there was no cointegration between the two indices for 2004-2015, which may be attributed to no significant relationship found for the latter years. Results support the notion that investors pay the price to invest ethically on the JSE. Inferior risk-adjusted returns associated with SRI may be a major barrier to its development in South African markets.
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- Authors: Cormack, Bradley Alexander
- Date: 2017
- Subjects: Investments -- Moral and ethical aspects -- South Africa , Johannesburg Stock Exchange , Social responsibility of business -- Standards , Social responsiblity of business -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MBA
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/36251 , vital:24532
- Description: Socially responsible investing (SRI) integrates environmental, social and governance (ESG) issues into the investment decision-making process. Growing ESG concerns and the uncovering of corporate scandals have catalysed the substantial growth in SRI portfolios worldwide. Notwithstanding its increasing popularity, barriers to further SRI growth have been identified. Traditional investing practices suggest that theoretically, SRI may underperform conventional investment strategies. However, despite the vast amount of literature on SRI, empirical studies have yielded a mixture of results regarding fund performance. The JSE SRI Index was launched in 2004 to promote transparent business practices. It was discontinued at the end of 2015 succeeded by a new Responsible Investment Index established by the JSE in association with FTSE Russell. The aim of the research was to evaluate the share performance of the JSE SRI Index from 2004-2015. Additionally, the indices were categorised by environmental impact to further analyse disparity among share returns. The study was also divided into two sub-periods, 2004-2009 and 2010-2015, with the latter following the endorsement of integrated reporting by the King III Code as a listing requirement in 2010. A single-factor Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) was used to assess differences in risk-adjusted returns. Engle-Granger and Johansen tests were employed to explore the possibility of a cointegrating relationship between the indices. No significant difference between returns was observed for 2004-2009, with the SRI Index exhibiting statistically significant inferior risk-adjusted returns for the latter half of the study. Overall, a significant difference between share returns was found, with CAPM results suggesting that the JSE SRI Index underperformed the All Share Index by -2.33% per annum throughout the time span of the study. Engle-Granger and Johansen test results indicated the existence of a cointegrating relationship over the first half of the study. However, there was no cointegration between the two indices for 2004-2015, which may be attributed to no significant relationship found for the latter years. Results support the notion that investors pay the price to invest ethically on the JSE. Inferior risk-adjusted returns associated with SRI may be a major barrier to its development in South African markets.
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An analysis of the influence of domestic macroeconomic variables on the performance of the South African stock market sectoral indices
- Authors: Hancocks, Ryan Lee
- Date: 2011
- Subjects: Johannesburg Stock Exchange , Stock price indexes -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Macroeconomics -- Econometric models
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:954
- Description: An econometric study was undertaken to determine the extent to which selected macroeconomic variables influenced stock market prices on the All-Share, Financial, Mining and Retail Indices of the Johannesburg Stock Exchange in South Africa from 1996:7 to 2008:12. The Johansen cointegration method was used to determine whether cointegrating relationships existed between the macroeconomic variables and the stock market indices. A Vector Error Correction model was estimated and found significant results that money supply, inflation, long and short- run interest rates, and the exchange rate all had an influence on stock market prices. Further, the VECM results for each sector indicated that certain macroeconomic variables had differing influences on each sector of the stock market. Impulse Response tests indicated that the selected macroeconomic variables caused shock to the sectoral indices in the short-run but that the effect was lagged. The Variance Decomposition tests conducted supported earlier evidence that the macroeconomic variables had a strong level of sectoral index determinacy in the long run. The results found that the All-Share and Financial Indices were negatively influenced by inflation and short term interest rates in the long run, while the Financial Index also had a negative relationship with long-run interest rates. Money supply was found to have a positive effect on all the indices. A weakening of the exchange rate was found to have a positive influence on both the Retail and Mining Indices, while it negatively affected the All-Share and Financial Indices. The long-run interest rate had a positive influence on both the Retail and Mining Indices. Overall the study finds that macroeconomic variables are important determinants of stock market prices in South Africa and that it is important to examine each sector of the stock market separately to capture what are different effects. The limitations of the study are that a different measure for exchange rates from the nominal rand/dollar exchange rate used here may yield more decisive results and provide insight into the link between exchange rate behaviour and performance of especially the retail sector.
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- Authors: Hancocks, Ryan Lee
- Date: 2011
- Subjects: Johannesburg Stock Exchange , Stock price indexes -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Macroeconomics -- Econometric models
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:954
- Description: An econometric study was undertaken to determine the extent to which selected macroeconomic variables influenced stock market prices on the All-Share, Financial, Mining and Retail Indices of the Johannesburg Stock Exchange in South Africa from 1996:7 to 2008:12. The Johansen cointegration method was used to determine whether cointegrating relationships existed between the macroeconomic variables and the stock market indices. A Vector Error Correction model was estimated and found significant results that money supply, inflation, long and short- run interest rates, and the exchange rate all had an influence on stock market prices. Further, the VECM results for each sector indicated that certain macroeconomic variables had differing influences on each sector of the stock market. Impulse Response tests indicated that the selected macroeconomic variables caused shock to the sectoral indices in the short-run but that the effect was lagged. The Variance Decomposition tests conducted supported earlier evidence that the macroeconomic variables had a strong level of sectoral index determinacy in the long run. The results found that the All-Share and Financial Indices were negatively influenced by inflation and short term interest rates in the long run, while the Financial Index also had a negative relationship with long-run interest rates. Money supply was found to have a positive effect on all the indices. A weakening of the exchange rate was found to have a positive influence on both the Retail and Mining Indices, while it negatively affected the All-Share and Financial Indices. The long-run interest rate had a positive influence on both the Retail and Mining Indices. Overall the study finds that macroeconomic variables are important determinants of stock market prices in South Africa and that it is important to examine each sector of the stock market separately to capture what are different effects. The limitations of the study are that a different measure for exchange rates from the nominal rand/dollar exchange rate used here may yield more decisive results and provide insight into the link between exchange rate behaviour and performance of especially the retail sector.
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Day-of-the-week effect : evidence from nine sectors of the South African stock market
- Authors: Mbululu, Douglas
- Date: 2010
- Subjects: Stock exchanges -- South Africa , Johannesburg Stock Exchange , Stocks -- Prices -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1024 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002759 , Stock exchanges -- South Africa , Johannesburg Stock Exchange , Stocks -- Prices -- South Africa
- Description: The day-of-the-week effect in share prices is one of the most extensively researched anomalies, especially in developed markets. However, emerging African stock markets have received little attention in this regard. This study breaks new ground in using non-parametric tests directly on skewness and kurtosis to examine whether the day-of-he-week effect exists in nine listed stock market sector indices of the JSE Securities Exchange of South Africa (JSE). Different day-of-the-week effects were found to be present in the statistical moments of returns of these nine JSE sectors
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- Authors: Mbululu, Douglas
- Date: 2010
- Subjects: Stock exchanges -- South Africa , Johannesburg Stock Exchange , Stocks -- Prices -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1024 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002759 , Stock exchanges -- South Africa , Johannesburg Stock Exchange , Stocks -- Prices -- South Africa
- Description: The day-of-the-week effect in share prices is one of the most extensively researched anomalies, especially in developed markets. However, emerging African stock markets have received little attention in this regard. This study breaks new ground in using non-parametric tests directly on skewness and kurtosis to examine whether the day-of-he-week effect exists in nine listed stock market sector indices of the JSE Securities Exchange of South Africa (JSE). Different day-of-the-week effects were found to be present in the statistical moments of returns of these nine JSE sectors
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An analysis of the turn-of-the-year effect in South African equity returns
- Authors: Potgieter, Damien
- Date: 2007
- Subjects: Johannesburg Stock Exchange , FTSE International , Stock exchanges -- South Africa , Stock price indexes -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1063 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1007605 , Johannesburg Stock Exchange , FTSE International , Stock exchanges -- South Africa , Stock price indexes -- South Africa
- Description: This study investigates FTSE/JSE All Share index monthly and daily equity returns for evidence of the January and TY effect. Four different measures of monthly return are analysed for the 1995-2006 period, whilst daily returns are analysed during the 1995-2005 period. In addition to this, analysis is conducted on monthly Fama-MacBeth risk premium estimates tor the FTSE/JSE All Share Index. Descriptive statistics are first analysed, followed by ANOV A or Kruskai-Wallis tests, the paired t-test and finally dummy variable regression analysis in investigating the seasonality of FTSE/JSE All Share Index returns and risk premia. Analysis on monthly returns reveals an absence of the January effect, however a positive slightly statistically significant December effect is found. Thus, investors earn abnormal returns on equity during the month of December. The results from the Fama-MacBeth risk premia estimates reveals highly statistically significant negative risk premia seasonal patterns during March, July and September. Thus, investors are in fact penalised for investing in equities during these months. In addition, the analysis reveals an absence of a December effect in risk premia, which contradicts the risk-return trade-off central to modem finance. The daily return analysis reveals a highly significant Turn-of-the-Year effect (TY), which suggests that investors earn abnormal returns on days at the turn of the year. Therefore, it is concluded that a December effect is apparent in South African equity monthly returns, whilst a March, July and September effect is apparent in South African equity risk premia contradicting the risk-return trade-off central to modem finance. In addition to this, a TY effect is present in South African equity daily returns.
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- Authors: Potgieter, Damien
- Date: 2007
- Subjects: Johannesburg Stock Exchange , FTSE International , Stock exchanges -- South Africa , Stock price indexes -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1063 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1007605 , Johannesburg Stock Exchange , FTSE International , Stock exchanges -- South Africa , Stock price indexes -- South Africa
- Description: This study investigates FTSE/JSE All Share index monthly and daily equity returns for evidence of the January and TY effect. Four different measures of monthly return are analysed for the 1995-2006 period, whilst daily returns are analysed during the 1995-2005 period. In addition to this, analysis is conducted on monthly Fama-MacBeth risk premium estimates tor the FTSE/JSE All Share Index. Descriptive statistics are first analysed, followed by ANOV A or Kruskai-Wallis tests, the paired t-test and finally dummy variable regression analysis in investigating the seasonality of FTSE/JSE All Share Index returns and risk premia. Analysis on monthly returns reveals an absence of the January effect, however a positive slightly statistically significant December effect is found. Thus, investors earn abnormal returns on equity during the month of December. The results from the Fama-MacBeth risk premia estimates reveals highly statistically significant negative risk premia seasonal patterns during March, July and September. Thus, investors are in fact penalised for investing in equities during these months. In addition, the analysis reveals an absence of a December effect in risk premia, which contradicts the risk-return trade-off central to modem finance. The daily return analysis reveals a highly significant Turn-of-the-Year effect (TY), which suggests that investors earn abnormal returns on days at the turn of the year. Therefore, it is concluded that a December effect is apparent in South African equity monthly returns, whilst a March, July and September effect is apparent in South African equity risk premia contradicting the risk-return trade-off central to modem finance. In addition to this, a TY effect is present in South African equity daily returns.
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An empirical investigation into the determinants of stock market behaviour in South Africa
- Authors: Olalere, Durodola Oludamola
- Date: 2007
- Subjects: Johannesburg Stock Exchange , Stocks -- Prices -- South Africa , Stock exchanges -- South Africa , Macroeconomics -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:998 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002733 , Johannesburg Stock Exchange , Stocks -- Prices -- South Africa , Stock exchanges -- South Africa , Macroeconomics -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa
- Description: The argument with regards to whether macro-economic fundamentals determine stock market behaviour is very important because of the roles it plays in an economy. Such roles include: pooling and trading of risks, mobilization of savings, provision of liquidity and allocation of capital. However, the stock market will only perform such roles effectively if the macro-economic environment is conducive. This study examined the behaviour of the All Share Index (ALSI) and market capitalization on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange in response to changes in the domestic and international macro-economic fundamentals such as the consumer price index, rand-dollar real exchange rates, domestic GDP, yield on South African government bonds, yield on United States government bonds and United States GDP. The study used cointegration and error correction techniques proposed by Johansen and Juselius (1990) to test for long run relationship. Two separate models were estimated and results obtained show that the two proxies for the stock market behaviour (All share Index and market capitalization) are true endogenous variables, but react differently to economic fundamentals. The consumer price index has a significant negative impact on the JSE share price index while market capitalization is determined predominantly by the yield on South African government bonds. The exchange rate seems to have had little or no influence on the share price index, but becomes negative and significant in the case of market capitalization. The yield on United States government bonds also produced a strong influence on both the share price index and market capitalization. While it has a negative significant impact on share prices, it produced a positive significant impact on market capitalization. In order to ascertain whether the South African interest rate or the United States interest rate is more important in explaining the share price and market capitalization, each of the variables were estimated in the model separately, the result obtained reveals that the United States interest rate is more important than the domestic interest rate in explaining the share price and market capitalization on the JSE. This implies that investors need to observe the USA interest rate before investing in South African equities. A comparison of the responses of share price index and market capitalization to impulses from the macro-economic variables tested reveals that both proxies elicit a positive response from aggregate output. The share price index responds more significantly to impulses from output growth than the market capitalization, meaning that, as aggregate production increases, the share price index tends to respond positively and quickly. The exchange rate produced mixed result from the two proxies, while it produced a positive response from the market capitalization; an initial positive response was noted in the share price index that immediately turned negative. Another glaring contrast was identified in the response of both proxies to impulses from the United States interest rate. The share price index responded positively while the market capitalization produced a negative response. This finding reveals that the two proxies actually respond differently to macro-economic variables. The variance decomposition of both stock prices and market capitalization reveals that the yield on United States government bonds has a more significant absorption potential than the South African government bonds. However, the absorption process is slower in the case of the market capitalization. The exchange rate has a greater impact on the market capitalization than stock prices. The overall assessment shows that share prices respond faster than market capitalization to macro-economic fundamentals. The study also shows that the increased openness of the South African economy by way of relaxation of the exchange control on capital account transaction has allowed the USA market to play a crucial role in equity prices in South Africa. Three main policy recommendations results from the study. Firstly, if inflation is well monitored, then the local equity market is bound to perform strongly resulting in strong shares earning growth. Secondly, the exchange rate should be made to be less volatile so that long term investment plans across borders can be further enhanced. Thirdly, financial analyst and investors in South Africa need to analyse macro-economic developments in the United States before investing in equities in South Africa.
- Full Text:
- Authors: Olalere, Durodola Oludamola
- Date: 2007
- Subjects: Johannesburg Stock Exchange , Stocks -- Prices -- South Africa , Stock exchanges -- South Africa , Macroeconomics -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:998 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002733 , Johannesburg Stock Exchange , Stocks -- Prices -- South Africa , Stock exchanges -- South Africa , Macroeconomics -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa
- Description: The argument with regards to whether macro-economic fundamentals determine stock market behaviour is very important because of the roles it plays in an economy. Such roles include: pooling and trading of risks, mobilization of savings, provision of liquidity and allocation of capital. However, the stock market will only perform such roles effectively if the macro-economic environment is conducive. This study examined the behaviour of the All Share Index (ALSI) and market capitalization on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange in response to changes in the domestic and international macro-economic fundamentals such as the consumer price index, rand-dollar real exchange rates, domestic GDP, yield on South African government bonds, yield on United States government bonds and United States GDP. The study used cointegration and error correction techniques proposed by Johansen and Juselius (1990) to test for long run relationship. Two separate models were estimated and results obtained show that the two proxies for the stock market behaviour (All share Index and market capitalization) are true endogenous variables, but react differently to economic fundamentals. The consumer price index has a significant negative impact on the JSE share price index while market capitalization is determined predominantly by the yield on South African government bonds. The exchange rate seems to have had little or no influence on the share price index, but becomes negative and significant in the case of market capitalization. The yield on United States government bonds also produced a strong influence on both the share price index and market capitalization. While it has a negative significant impact on share prices, it produced a positive significant impact on market capitalization. In order to ascertain whether the South African interest rate or the United States interest rate is more important in explaining the share price and market capitalization, each of the variables were estimated in the model separately, the result obtained reveals that the United States interest rate is more important than the domestic interest rate in explaining the share price and market capitalization on the JSE. This implies that investors need to observe the USA interest rate before investing in South African equities. A comparison of the responses of share price index and market capitalization to impulses from the macro-economic variables tested reveals that both proxies elicit a positive response from aggregate output. The share price index responds more significantly to impulses from output growth than the market capitalization, meaning that, as aggregate production increases, the share price index tends to respond positively and quickly. The exchange rate produced mixed result from the two proxies, while it produced a positive response from the market capitalization; an initial positive response was noted in the share price index that immediately turned negative. Another glaring contrast was identified in the response of both proxies to impulses from the United States interest rate. The share price index responded positively while the market capitalization produced a negative response. This finding reveals that the two proxies actually respond differently to macro-economic variables. The variance decomposition of both stock prices and market capitalization reveals that the yield on United States government bonds has a more significant absorption potential than the South African government bonds. However, the absorption process is slower in the case of the market capitalization. The exchange rate has a greater impact on the market capitalization than stock prices. The overall assessment shows that share prices respond faster than market capitalization to macro-economic fundamentals. The study also shows that the increased openness of the South African economy by way of relaxation of the exchange control on capital account transaction has allowed the USA market to play a crucial role in equity prices in South Africa. Three main policy recommendations results from the study. Firstly, if inflation is well monitored, then the local equity market is bound to perform strongly resulting in strong shares earning growth. Secondly, the exchange rate should be made to be less volatile so that long term investment plans across borders can be further enhanced. Thirdly, financial analyst and investors in South Africa need to analyse macro-economic developments in the United States before investing in equities in South Africa.
- Full Text:
The market efficiency hypothesis and the behaviour of stock returns on the JSE securities exchange
- Authors: Mabhunu, Mind
- Date: 2004
- Subjects: Johannesburg Stock Exchange , Stocks -- Prices -- South Africa , Stock exchanges -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1027 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002762 , Johannesburg Stock Exchange , Stocks -- Prices -- South Africa , Stock exchanges -- South Africa
- Description: While the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EHM) has been widely accepted as robust by many researchers in the field of capital markets, the hypothesis’ robustness has been under increased scrutiny and question lately. In the light of the concerns over the robustness of the EMH, the weak form efficiency of the JSE is tested. Stock returns used in the analysis were controlled for thin trading and it was discovered that once returns are controlled for thin trading, they are independent of each other across time. Some of the previous studies found the JSE to be inefficient in the weak form but this research found that the JSE is efficient in the weak form. A comparison is also made between the JSE and four other African stock markets and the JSE is found to be more efficient than the other markets. The developments on the JSE, which have improved information dissemination as well as the efficiency of trading, contributed to the improvement of the JSE’s efficiency. The improvement in operational efficiency and turnover from the late 1990s has also made a major contribution to the improvement in the weak form efficiency of the JSE. Theory proposes that if markets are efficient then professional investment management is of little value if any; hence the position of professional investment managers in efficient markets is investigated. Although the JSE is found to be efficient, at least in the weak form, it is argued that achieving efficiency does not necessarily make the investment manager’s role obsolete. Investment managers are needed even when the market can be proved to be efficient.
- Full Text:
- Authors: Mabhunu, Mind
- Date: 2004
- Subjects: Johannesburg Stock Exchange , Stocks -- Prices -- South Africa , Stock exchanges -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1027 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002762 , Johannesburg Stock Exchange , Stocks -- Prices -- South Africa , Stock exchanges -- South Africa
- Description: While the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EHM) has been widely accepted as robust by many researchers in the field of capital markets, the hypothesis’ robustness has been under increased scrutiny and question lately. In the light of the concerns over the robustness of the EMH, the weak form efficiency of the JSE is tested. Stock returns used in the analysis were controlled for thin trading and it was discovered that once returns are controlled for thin trading, they are independent of each other across time. Some of the previous studies found the JSE to be inefficient in the weak form but this research found that the JSE is efficient in the weak form. A comparison is also made between the JSE and four other African stock markets and the JSE is found to be more efficient than the other markets. The developments on the JSE, which have improved information dissemination as well as the efficiency of trading, contributed to the improvement of the JSE’s efficiency. The improvement in operational efficiency and turnover from the late 1990s has also made a major contribution to the improvement in the weak form efficiency of the JSE. Theory proposes that if markets are efficient then professional investment management is of little value if any; hence the position of professional investment managers in efficient markets is investigated. Although the JSE is found to be efficient, at least in the weak form, it is argued that achieving efficiency does not necessarily make the investment manager’s role obsolete. Investment managers are needed even when the market can be proved to be efficient.
- Full Text:
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