Art investment as a portfolio diversification strategy in South Africa
- Authors: Botha, Ferdi , Scott, Brett , Snowball, Jeanette D
- Date: 2015
- Language: English
- Type: text , article
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/67422 , vital:29086
- Description: publisher version , Art has been suggested as a good way to diversify investment portfolios during times of financial uncertainty. The argument is that art exhibits different risk and return characteristics to conventional investments in other asset classes. The new Citadel Art Price index offered the opportunity to test this theory in the South African context. The Citadel index uses the hedonic regression method with observations drawn from the top 100, 50 and 20 artists by sales volume, giving approximately 29 503 total auction observations. The Index consists of quarterly data from the period 2000Q1 to 2013Q3. A VAR of the art price index, Johannesburg Stock Exchange all-share index, house price index, and South African government bond index were used. Flowing from the VAR results, additional analyses included variance decomposition, impulse response, and, to determine volatility, variance and standard deviation measures for each index. Results show that, when there are increased returns on the stock market in the previous period and wealth increases, there is a change in the Citadel Art Price Index in the same direction. This finding is consistent with Goetzmann et al. (2009), who reported that there is a strong relationship between art and equity markets and that art price changes are driven by capital gains and losses. No significant difference was found between the house price index and the art price index, and neither between the art and government bond price indices. Overall, the South African art market does not offer the opportunity to diversify portfolios dominated by either property, bonds, or shares.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2015
Modelling stock return volatility dynamics in selected African markets
- Authors: King, Daniel , Botha, Ferdi
- Date: 2015
- Subjects: To be catalogued
- Language: English
- Type: text , article
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/396104 , vital:69150 , xlink:href=" https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2014.11.008"
- Description: This paper examines whether accounting for structural changes in the conditional variance process, through the use of Markov-switching models, improves estimates and forecasts of stock return volatility over those of the more conventional single-state (G)ARCH models, within and across selected African markets for the period 2002–2012. In the univariate portion of the paper, the performances of various Markov-switching models are tested against a single-state benchmark model through the use of in-sample goodness-of-fit and predictive ability measures. In the multivariate context, the single-state and Markov-switching models are comparatively assessed according to their usefulness in constructing optimal stock portfolios. Accounting for structural breaks in the conditional variance process, conventional GARCH effects remain important in capturing heteroscedasticity. However, those univariate models including a GARCH term perform comparatively poorly when used for forecasting purposes. In the multivariate study, the use of Markov-switching variance–covariance estimates improves risk-adjusted portfolio returns relative to portfolios constructed using the more conventional single-state models. While there is evidence that some Markov-switching models can provide better forecasts and higher risk-adjusted returns than those models which include GARCH effects, the inability of the simpler Markov-switching models to fully capture heteroscedasticity in the data remains problematic.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2015
Subjective well-being in Africa
- Authors: Botha, Ferdi , Snowball, Jeanette D
- Date: 2015
- Language: English
- Type: article , text
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/61084 , vital:27946
- Description: Research on quality of life and subjective well-being (SWB) has witnessed a remarkable growth over the past four decades or so. Since Easterlin’s (1974) seminal contribution on the relationship between happiness and income, thousands of studies have followed that examine the intricacies of subjective well-being (for reviews, see Frey and Stutzer, 2002; Dolan et al., 2008; MacKerron, 2012). These studies have uncovered some very important aspects of individual well-being and have pointed to the fact that money or income is not always (as is often assumed) the most important determinant of SWB.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2015